Well, I Declare: 25th September

Well I Declare: 25th to 29th September

Well, I Declare: 25th September

Well, I Declare: 25th September

Following last week’s terrific results in the ‘corresponding sector’, I felt we had to include the work for this week, especially with the number of NH meetings taking a turn for the better.

Thirty two winners came our way last week with Richard Hannon leading the way (as anticipated) with thirteen winners (including those at 14/1-9/1-7/1-6/1).  Clive Brittain lit the blue touch paper and no mistake however, given his four gold medallists at 125/1-14/1-15/2-9/2!

Trainers who led the way this time last year (corresponding meetings) were as follows (Tuesday through Saturday):


6--Mahmood Al Zarooni

5--Brian Meehan

4--Richard Fahey

4--Charlie Hills

3--Andrew Balding

3--David Evans

3--Richard Guest

3--Mark Johnston

3--Kevin Ryan

3--Sir Michael Stoute


6--Charlie Longsdon

3--Nigel Twiston Davies


Newmarket (Cambridgeshire meeting Thursday/Friday/Saturday) details from last year:

Favourites won eight of the twenty two races (2/7 Thursday--3/8 Wednesday--3/7 Saturday) which represents a 36.4% figure.


Leading trainers:

3--Andrew Balding (16/1-12/1-7/2*)

3--Mahmood Al Zarooni (11/4*-2/1*-11/10*)

2--Roger Varian (4/1 & 100/30*)


Doubles on the day:

Andrew Balding: 57/1 (Friday)

Mahmood Al Zarooni: 13/2 (Saturday)


Toteplacepot returns:

Thursday: £41.90 (average dividend of £404.53 over the last ten years)

Friday: £127.40 (£6,634.22--thanks to the £63,284.30 dividend in 2003!)

Saturday: £2548.00 (£1,359.03)


Saturday specials twelve months ago (across all the meetings):

Richard Fahey: 15,800/1 four timer (including a 1,858/1 treble at Haydock)!

Roger Varian: 179/1 double at Haydock

Kevin Ryan: 32/1 double

Richard Guest: 19/1 double at Wolverhampton

Mahmood Al Zarooni: 13/2 double

John Gosden: 9/2 double



Day to day details:

TUESDAY 25/09:


General stats: Sir Michael Stoute has won with the only two juveniles he has saddled at Beverley in the last five years and his two-year-old raider Altharoos (3.40) is Michael’s only intended runner at the track on Tuesday.

2.10: Four-year-olds lead the junior raiders 3-2 via five renewals thus far, though it’s equal (7-7) in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions secured.  Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

2.40: All three winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-9 and given all the projected rain which looks set to fall, every pound might count.  Two of the three favourites have reached the frame to date without winning their respective events.

3.10: Official ratings suggest that course and distance winner Es Que Love and Ponty Acclaim are well in here and it’s difficult to argue with those findings, albeit they have both lost the winning thread of late which takes the edge off the pair from a punting perspective.  Seven favourites have won via fourteen renewals to date, whilst ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.40: Both favourites obliged before last year‘s market leader could only finish secured, albeit the jolly completed the 100% toteplacepot success.

4.10: The last 10 winners of this event carried weights of 8-12 or more which eliminates the bottom five horses if you take the stats seriously. Only one of the last seventeen favourites (via fifteen renewals) has prevailed, whilst nine market leaders reached the frame during the study period.

4.40: All thirteen winners have carried 9-4 or less, whilst four favourites have won via fourteen renewals.  Eight market leaders have reached the frame.

5.10 & 5.40 (two divisions): Just one favourite has prevailed via seven renewals thus far in this amateur riders event.



General stats: Dark Orchid (4.30) is Peter Chapple-Hyam’s only runner at Folkestone, the trainer having saddled six of last twelve representatives at the course to winning effect.



General stats: Course and distance winner Double Chocolate (3.50) is David Bridgwater’s only runner at the Devon venue tomorrow, with David having saddled three of his nine horses to victory at Newton Abbot.  Paul Nicholls (32% strike rate at the track during the last five years) is the potential ‘spoiler’ in the line up having declared Minella Stars.


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General stats: Michael J.M. Murphy is impressing in the saddle at every track he visits these days and his 60% strike rate at Goodwood (3/5) stands out from the crowd.  Michael backs up the stats with an impressive LSP figure of thirty-two points!

1.30: Epsom Derby and ’Arc’ winner Workforce made his winning debut in the inaugural running of this contest three years ago before the next gold medallist went on to lift Newmarket’s Group 2 ‘Tattersalls Millions’.  Last year’s scorer only went on to contest one more race when beaten whereby I am hoping that the race reverts to type by producing another interesting gold medallist.  All three favourites have finished in the frame, securing two gold and one bronze medal in the process.

2.00: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

2.35 & 3.10 (two divisions): The last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-6 or less, whilst the last seven contests have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded.  The weight trends go against local raider Signed Up and Ghost Protocal (second division at 3.10) might struggle to win.  Seven of the eleven favourites have reached the frame to date (three winners).

3.40: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals (including four of the last five) of this Listed event.  Saeed Bin Suroor has secured five of the last eight renewals the trainer has offered Pisco Sour the green light on this occasion.  Seven of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last fourteen years was returned at just 10/1 (twelve months ago).

4.15: The six gold medallists have carried 8-11 or more in the toteplacepot finale which isolates two horses down at the bottom of the handicap.  Four-year-olds have won four of the six contests, whilst a 16/1 representative was beaten a head on one of the other occasions and another 16/1 raider finished third last year.  All six favourites have finished out with the washing thus far including a 10/11 market leader two years ago.

4.50: Three-year-olds have won five renewals during the last decade whilst favourites have secured four of the seven contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was a 10/1 chance.

5.25: Although the biggest priced winner via nine renewals was just a 9/1 chance, the only favourite to oblige scored twelve months ago.



General stats: Some punters swear that by following three-year-olds you can make a living out of the sport, the theory being that relevant horses have enough experience to know what to do, but not too much to start having their own ideas about the game.  The general stats suggest that there is something to be said for the ’system’ though perhaps not at Redcar, where following three-year-old favourites would have cost you over twenty-eight points of level stake losses during the last five years.  



General stats: Aside from my weekly report singing the praises of Saeed Bin Suroor’s raiders at Kempton, I can also offer positive vibes about James Fanshawe’s runners at the Sunbury circuit, given his 21% strike rate in recent times, a ratio which has produced forty-two points of level stake profits.  Ralph Beckett has fared event better via the same S/R by boasting an LSP figure of sixty-two points.



General stats: Tartan Tiger (scheduled to contest the 5.05 contest) is an interesting runner from John Quinn’s yard as John has won with the only horse he has saddled at the racecourse in recent years.  John’s stable is also in form at the time of writing for good measure. 




General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni saddled more winners than another trainer during the corresponding week last year (reminder for you) and his 27% strike rate (backed up by an LSP figure of eighty-one points) offers further encouragement if you fancy his horses over the next three days.  Andrew Balding’s level stake profit of over one hundred points stands out from the crowd. 



General stats: Henry Candy’s 6/19 ratio takes some beating at Pontefract Park. If you target Henry’s older horses (aged four of more), the statistics improve to 5/12. 

Juvenile maiden event over six furlongs scheduled for 2.20: Ten of the last eleven winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less, stats which include six successful market leaders. Seven of the twelve favourites during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs)

9-2-5 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-1-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-4 (6 ran-good to firm)
11-3-9 (14 ran-good to firm)
4-12-10 (12 ran-good to firm)
2-8-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-4-9 (11-good to firm)
9-11-7 (11-good to firm)
9-5-6 (10 ran-good)
10-4-5 (10 ran-firm)
7-1-8 (11 ran-good to firm)
10-12-4 (11 ran-firm)
9-5-11 (10 ran-soft)
11-6-2 (10 ran-soft)
10-7-2 (14 ran-good to soft)
13-14-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

One mile Nursery event for fillies scheduled for 2.55: Eight of the last ten winners have all carried weights of 8-10 or more, whilst just two of the last thirteen favourites have prevailed. Six of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs)

2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
3-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
5-1 (6 ran-good to firm)
7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
8-7-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
9-12-5 (11 ran-good to firm)
4-1-11 (12 ran-good)
8-3-10 (11 ran-firm)
2-11-10 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-5 (6 ran-firm)
6-14-8-10 (17 ran-soft)
1-6-9 (13 ran-good to soft)
5-2-4-12 (16 ran-good)
4-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-11-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

Five furlong all aged handicap due to be contested at 3.30: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals whereby I included last year’s 16/1 winner Dancing Freddy in my short listed trio.  Three favourites have won since 1998, and though only eight of the sixteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, the record would have been half decent but for all three 9/1 co favourites having finished out with the washing back in 2002.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2-3-1 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-4-1 (10 ran-good to firm)
11-4-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
5-4-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
15-14-8-9 (16 ran-good to firm)
5-14-4 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-4-17 (15 ran-good)
4-2-3-6 (16 ran-firm)
18-15-5-17 (16 ran-good to firm)
1-3-7-14 (17 ran-firm)
13-15-16 (15 ran-soft)
16-6-14-17 (16 ran-good to soft)
14-10-16-15 (18 ran-good)
5-2-7-3 (18 ran-good to firm)
15-4-17-12 (17 ran-good to firm)

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.05: Mark Johnston comes into the race on a hat trick and his 2010 winner Licence To Till was one of two five-day declarations in place earlier in the week.  Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst eleven of the seventeen jollies have finished in the frame in the process.

One mile juvenile maiden scheduled for 4.40: Eight of the last eleven renewals have gone the way of southern raiders.  Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst twelve of the recent scorers were returned at odds of 4/1 or less.  Thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via fifteen representatives.

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs)

6-8-2 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (6 ran-good to firm)
2-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
5-8-4 (8 ran-good to firm)
7-2-9 (10 ran-good to firm)
10-5-7 (11 ran-good to firm)
11-2-8 (11 ran-good)
1-9-2 (8 ran-firm)
4-5-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
2 (4 ran-firm)
4 (4 ran-soft)
2-6-13 (12 ran-good to soft)
8-10-4 (15 ran-good)
2-5-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-9-12 (13 ran-good to firm)



General stats: Dunstall Park stages more all-weather racing than any other venue year in, year out, whereby getting a handle on the stats is difficult.  Newmarket trainers such as Jeremy Noseda, Saeed Bin Suroor and (to a fashion) Tobias Coles saddle more than their fair of winners. 



General stats: Michael Byrne has ridden three winners via just four assignments at Perth to date.


FRIDAY 28/09:


General stats: We are living in different times, with Hayley Turner having changed the attitude of many men regarding lady riders, notwithstanding the emergence of Shirley Teasdale whose ability is a joy to behold.  Somewhere in the middle lies Natasha Eaton who boasts a 40% strike rate at Haydock which few men have ever matched after just ten rides at the track!



General stats: Although Ralph Beckett’s strike rate stands at just 11% on the Rowley Mile, his LSP figure reads at one hundred and thirty-one points at the time of writing!

Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes scheduled for 1.15: Three of the last eight winners were returned in double figures (two at 25/1) whereby any notion of a win investment should be treated with caution.  Two clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 15 years, whilst 10 of the 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Group 2 Joel Stakes scheduled for 2.20: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last fourteen renewals of this Group 3 contest, though four-year-olds come to this year’s gig on a five timer.  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years, though just two of the other twelve market leaders managed to secure toteplacepot positions.

Group 1 Fillies Mile due to be contested at 2.55:  John Gosden has saddled the winner of the ‘Fillies Mile’ three times in the last eight years and Winsili was John’s only potential runner in the race earlier in the week.  Six of the last fifteen favourites have scored, whilst eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Seven furlong maiden event scheduled for 3.25: Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at odds of 10/1 or less, stats which include five successful market leaders.  Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three winners during the eleven years and Michael held three options at the five-day stage.  Eleven of the last fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Listed Godolphin Stakes scheduled for 4.00: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared the last eight renewals.  Five of the last twelve renewals have fallen the way of the favourites in one form or another.

Ten furlong ‘Challenge Whip’ due to be contested at 5.10: Three-year-olds have won the last six renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 6/1.  Three of the last seven contests have gone to favourites.



General stats: Mark Johnston and Tom Dascombe are two other names to add to the positive list at Wolverhampton.



General stats: Phil Middleton (5/17) matches the 29% strike rate of Paul Nicholls at Stratford (no mean effort), albeit via only 27% of the number of runners saddled by the two trainers!



General stats: Aside from legendary names, Brian Ellison (5/10) is the main challenger to the Rachel Green/Anthony Honeyball roadshow at the track these days.




General stats: The 32% strike rate via ten winners of William Haggas takes some beating here on the Roodee, though Sir Mark Prescott and Marco Botti boast similar good records.



General stats: Roger Varian (12/38) boasts level stake profits of thirty points at Haydock during his brief training career thus far. 



General stats: Richard Hannon’s 13% strike rate is one of his weakest in the land but that said, fifty-five points of level stake profits more than makes up for the negative scenario.

‘Royal Lodge’ event scheduled for 1.55: Aidan O’Brien has won this race five times in the last thirteen years and the trainer held four entries for the Group 2 contest earlier in the week.

Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst eight of the nineteen market leaders reached the frame.    

Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes scheduled for 2.25: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

One mile Group 1 event scheduled for 3.00: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals of the ‘Sun Chariot’, whilst three of the last eleven favourites have secured this valuable prize.  Seven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Cambridgeshire Handicap scheduled for 3.40: The last nine winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst three favourites have won the race in the last fifteen years which is a respectable record given the competitive nature of this event.  Seven of the twenty market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  Five of the first seven horses home last year were drawn twenty or higher, though this week’s erratic weather makes the forecasting of ‘superior’ stall positions difficult in the extreme.

Seven furlong Nursery contest scheduled for 4.15: Nine of the last twelve winners of this nursery event have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whilst four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Ten of the nineteen jollies have snared toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 all aged seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.50: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals, albeit four-year-olds had previously held the call during the last decade or so.  Richard Hannon held three entries earlier in the week in a race in which Richard has saddled two of the last four winners.  Favourites have a moderate record in the potential toteplacepot finale, because although four of the last sixteen market leaders have won, only two of the other fourteen market leaders has finished in the frame.



General stats: Peter Salmon’s 50% strike rate (3/6) comes with a backing of twenty-eight points of level stake profits.



General stats: Gerard Butler’s ratios have diminished in recent years, though his 24% strike rate and fifty points LSP reading at Dunstall Park still catches the eye.  Simon Dow’s record of 5/11 strike rate stands out from the crowd.



General stats: Nicky Henderson stats at Market Rasen during the last five years: Hurdles: 9/20--Chases: 3/9--Bumpers: 4/8.  The statistics produce an aggregate level stake profit of fifteen points. 

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20 replies
  1. Roy says:

    Do not use this as far too much information to read through if you are tipping horses at least put a list at the bottom of the post for those who do not want to read through pages of text.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Each to their own, of course, Roy.
      But the column is very successful and you only need to read Tuesday’s section today. We reprint the following days’ information on a daily basis.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Roy and all,

      Please remember – and this is very important – geegeez.co.uk is NOT predominantly a tipping site.

      Our job is to provide you with information. If you would rather pick a horse randomly or by yourself or from a tip from somewhere, that’s absolutely fine.

      But it’s unfair to crab our stats authors who are highlighting a) trainers in form this time last year, and b) interesting declarations.

      How you use that information is up to you, but it’s churlish to complain you didn’t back a horse when others – who took a bit more time with the info – did.

      Sorry if that ruffles a few feathers but, as my dear dad is fond of saying, “You get nothing for nothing, and very little for sixpence”. In time terms, I’m afraid that’s undeniably true.


  2. Gavin says:

    i do kind of agree with Roy. by all means include the information, but why go through all that effort (which i’m sure many are grateful for) and not make clear what takes your fancy? i’ve read through your posts a few times now, but am often left unsure as to whether the stats are telling me there’s a bet or not, let alone who with.
    if you’re not wanting to tip horses, that’s also fine, but then don’t go on about how profitable following the information is and how many winners you’ve had.

  3. Mark says:

    I would like to see the Corresponding Sector each and every week if at all possible. As a follower of trainers and trainers habits it is invaluable. Where else could Clive Brittain 125/1 (600 on BF) winner be found last week? We was pointed in the right direction and also the trainers section each week is a super feature.

  4. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    I think you will find that this was the ONLY service in the country that would have named Clive Brittain as a trainer to watch last week before his 125/1 winner, let alone back up of 14/1, 15/2 and 9/2 gold medallists. I backed Richard Guest’s four runners yesterday (knowing this was a good week to follow the trainer–before this service was published unfortunately) which resulted in a 50/1 double with all four horses in the frame 14/1-9/1-11/2-9/2…but if you would rather spend £50 for an 4/5 ‘tip’ elsewhere, that is (of course) your choice!

  5. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Thanks for your positive comment Mark, whilst accepting that freedom of choice regarding opinion is the only way of us all moving forward. Thanks for your back up too Matt. By the by….the place accumulator yesterday came to over 50/1 as well as the 50/1 double!

  6. Gary Cuthbert says:

    To much spoon feeding required for some, the Clive B stat from last week and many more are brilliant if you can add a little of your own grey matter. Keep up the good work Mal

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      We try to be all things to all people, Gary. And I suspect some of the commentators earlier in the thread are new to the site. They, like everyone, are very welcome, and will soon come to understand and – I hope – appreciate the balance we strive for between ‘giving a man a fish’ and ‘teaching a man to fish’… if you see what I mean! 🙂


  7. tony t says:

    this sort of info is invaluable for placepot punters like myself who sometimes find it hard to find a formline in certain races this takes the hard work out of it for you by giving you the stats that you may struggle to find elsewhere.excellent info.

  8. Paul D says:

    As a recreational punter trying (and succeeding with your help) to pick up more consistent returns I don’t really want 10 selections a day as I don’t want to stake so much of my bank trying to cover all of them. I like to read the info and pick a couple of angles (be it trainers or jockeys or combinations of both), check against various previews / tipsters and put on a couple of informed bets. Makes me feel like I’m working for it and it’s a lot more fun.
    Thanks and keep up the good work!

  9. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    I am obliged guys and I apologise if I seemed a bit grumpy with (possibly) new readers who might simply have put their point across. If anyone has experienced lethal back pain (which I picked up on Sunday) they will have been a little tetchy themselves at the time! Why Matt and I hit it off from day one is written above, given that tips are ten a penny all over the country but general (hopefully well researched) information to feed from is part of what Matt and Chris want to offer. Whether you offered positive or negative comments above, I hope you back lots of winners today, though particularly Mark, Tony, Gary & Paul!!!

  10. Mark says:

    I do a lot of work on trainers Mal as I do with other stats as well and stated already in an earlier post find this an invaluable tool to aid selections. One of the things I look at myself is how a trainer fares at this time of the year over a five years period as opposed to his.her overall record over a five years period. It’s like a moving window, going back seven days and forward seven days over the five years period. Trainer are people of habits and yards seem to run into form at similar times year in year out.
    P D Evans and Bin Suroor are good examples of trainers that perform well historically around this period.
    The take on corresponding weeks is like a side-shoot of this and very useful indeed.

  11. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Well played Mark. Respectfully, what punters have to take into consideration is the rule that governs our very existence. You only get out of life what you are prepared to put in and that rule applies to gambling as well. You obviously comprehend that fact to the letter Sir!

  12. Josh W says:

    well well Mal, thank you. your jockey highlight has done the trick in the penultimate race at goodwood at 50s on betfair. mr Murphy has been riding well! my £2 minimum bet was more in hope than expectation, as it should be with a horse with recent form (or total lack of in the class) like the winner, but that is racing!

    keep up the good work, and keep this post just as it is!


  13. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    That’s what we are here for Josh….thanks for taking the time and trouble to write. Keep backing those winners! Mal.

  14. Gavin says:

    my previous comment was not meant in a negative manner, i was merely trying to work out how to make use of what i’m sure is good information and i misunderstood/misread the post.

    i came to this page after Matt’s email highlighting last week’s “32 winners, including a 125/1 shot and several other double-digits odds winners”

    however, i was interested to see how many of these highlighted horses had lost to get a few figures and with there being no ‘list’ i began reading (or thought i did) both last week and this week’s posts.

    it was then that i thought the ‘advice’ was in the ‘day to day details’ so could not understand where any selections were coming from, merely a few stats that may or may not help eliminate a few runners from the field.

    however, having read a little more, re-reading the posts and the above responses, i’ve come to understand that (correct me if i’m wrong) these posts are not intended to ‘tip’ anything particular, but to point out some trainers that, over previous years, have performed well in a given week, plus a few other interesting stats that may be of use.

    from that new found understanding (duh!) i was able to look back at the highlighted trainers’ results. however, in doing so, i found a total of 201 runners of which 34 won, not the 32 mentioned in the email. have i missed something or perhaps made a mistake?

    also does anyone have any stats they could share on profit/loss should you blindly follow the highlighted trainers from these Well I Declare posts?

    sorry for any misunderstanding, and although i still agree a list would be nice, it would also be pretty long and unnecessary considering the ease at which the trainer entries can be looked up. thanks Mal for sharing this info with us

  15. Gavin says:

    btw, if i’m missing anything else, could you please tell me what? i don’t mind putting in a bit of work, but i also like to keep (at least initially) different people’s angles separate so i can evaluate what that brings to the table.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Put quite simply, Mal will always try to dig out the most relevant stats for any given day/meeting, these will be italicised as the general stats for that meeting.
      As an example, Mal told us yesterday that Michael J Murphy had ridden 3 winners from 5 attempts at Goodwood for a level stakes profit of 32pts.
      Michael had 3 rides at Goodwood yesterday and rode one winner at 33/1.
      Whilst Mal didn’t specifically tip the horse by name, surely we can take some credit for highlighting a jockey to follow?

      Chris (Admin)

      PS I sent the email out about the 30+ winners, including one at 125/1.

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