Well I Declare: 6th March 2013

Well I Declare: 26th to 29th December

Well I Declare: 26th to 29th December

Well I Declare: 26th to 29th December

I hope you are enjoying a restful holiday period and that you ready to back some winners on Boxing Day. 

25/57 races (43.9%) were won by favourites on Boxing Day in this country last year with the following trainers having saddled at least two winners on the day.

4--Tim Vaughan (537/1 accumulator)

4--Nicky Henderson (17/1 four-timer)

3--Paul Nicholls (18/1 treble)

2--Colin Tizzard (59/1 double)

2--Charlie Longsdon (17/2 double)

2--Evan Williams (9/2 double)

Racecourse highlights on Boxing Day last year: 

Kempton: Five favourites won on the six race card.  Thirteen of the fifteen toteplacepot positions at Kempton were returned at 15/2 or less.  Average priced winner on the card (via percentages): 2/1.  Average price of win and placed horses (exact science): 3/1. The average toteplacepot dividend at Kempton this year under the NH code stands at £118.84.

Ffos Las: Tim Vaughan saddled a 29/1 treble via four runners on the card, whilst 2/7 races were won by market leaders.  Evan Williams secured his 9/2 double via four runners on the card.  13/14 win and place positions were secured by horses sent off at odds of 8/1 or less. Average priced winner: 2/1.  Average price of win and placed horses: 11/4.  The Ffos Las NH meeting on 23rd August produced the third highest toteplacepot dividend of 2012 to date at £16,892.70.

Fontwell: Five of the six favourites won on the Fontwell card, with all twelve horses finishing in the frame at odds of 7/1 or less.  Average priced winner: 11/8.  Average price of win and placed horses: 85/40.  Fontwell boasts the highest toteplacepot dividend this year which was declared at £24,236.50 on March 7th.

Huntingdon: Fourteen of the sixteen horses to reach the frame on the Huntingdon card were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.  Average priced winner: 4/1.  Average price of win and placed horses: 9/2. The average toteplacepot dividend at Huntingdon this year stands at £121.77.

Market Rasen: Charlie Longsdon saddled both of his two winners on the day here (via a total of three runners) at odds of 2/1* and 9/4**.  These were the only successful market leaders on the six race card.  Fourteen of the seventeen horses to gain win and place positions were sent off at odds of 9/1.  Average priced winner: 4/1.  Average price of win and placed horses: 4/1.  The average toteplacepot dividend at Market Rasen this year is £96.31 at the time of writing.

Towcester: Four favourites won on a seven race card, with sixteen of the eighteen win and placed horses starting at 8/1 or less.  Average priced winner: 5/2.  Average price of win and placed horses: 4/1.  The average toteplacepot dividend at Towcester in 2012 stands at £119.44.

Wetherby: Successful toteplacepot investors were delighted with the dividend of £1,314.70 on Boxing Day last year.  Just one (7/2 joint) favourite won on a six race card, with 15/18 horses finishing in the frame (exact science) starting at odds of 10/1 or less.  Average priced winner: 7/1,  Average price of win and placed horses: 6/1. The eighth highest toteplacepot dividend this year was declared at Wetherby, recorded at £9,442.60 on Tuesday 21st February.

Wincanton: Colin Tizzard saddled both of his (14/1 & 3/1) winners at the west country venue via a total of five runners.  Paul Nicholls secured a 7/2 double at the track having also saddled five runners on the card.  12/18 horses to finish in the frame were returned at a top price of 7/1.  Average priced winner: 9/4.  Average price of win and placed horses: 4/1.  The highest toteplacepot dividend at Wincanton this year was the £4,294.50 return on Saturday 18th February, rated at number 32 in the list this year at the time of writing.

Wolverhampton: Only one favourite scored at Dunstall Park on Boxing Day 2011. Eleven of the thirteen horses to secure toteplacepot position were sent off at a top price of 8/1.   Average priced winner: 11/4.  Average price of win and placed horses: 7/2.  The average toteplacepot dividend at Wolverhampton stands at £ (up to and including Saturday 22nd December).

 

Details from last year’s four day Leopardstown Festival:

Eight of the twenty eight races were secured by favourites of one description or another, four of which were trained by Willie Mullins.

Trainers who saddled at least two winners:

6--W. Mullins: (5/1--9/2--9/4*--11.10*--11/10*--4/5*)

3--C.A. Murphy: (13/8--13/8*--8/11*)

2--E. O’Grady (11/2 & 9/2)

2--J.J. Hanlon (5/2 & 7/4)

Trainers who saddled big priced (single) winners during the four days included:

P. Nolan (20/1)--A.J. Martin (12/1)--Mrs J. Harrington (12/1)--J.A. Nash (12/1)--G. Elliott (8/1)--D.T. Hughes (8/1)--A. Murray (8/1)--Jonjo O’Neill (8/1)--N. Meade (7/1).

 

UPDATED A/W STATS (Records since the end of the turf season):

Number of races: 388

Number of winning favourites (includes joint and co favourites): 144 (37.1% of races)

Odds on Ratio: 35/55 (63.6%)

 

Leading A/W Trainers on the since the end of the turf season:

11--M. Botti (2/5*--11/4--Evs*--7/2--11/2--5/4*--7/2--2/1*--3/1--10/11*--9/4*)

9--John Ryan (9/2--33/1--3/1**--15/8--7/2--6/1--3/1*--5/4*--3/1)

9--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--5/4*--Evs*--11/4*--9/4--4/6*--9/4)

8--A. Balding (11/10*--4/5*--11/4*--11/4--4/1**--2/1--7/2*--5/2)

8--David (P.D) Evans (7/1--10/1--2/1--7/1--11/4--9/2*--2/1--2/1*)

8--J.S. Moore (4/1--20/1--8/1--4/1--5/1--7/4*--9/2--5/2)

7--K. Dalgleish (9/1--9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*--5/4*)

7--Kevin Ryan (9/2--5/1--7/2**--4/1--11/10*--11/2--5/1)

 

Trainers of most beaten favourites during the study period:

15--A. Balding (Evs--3/1**--3/1--10/3--4/6--5/4--7/4--7/2**--6/4--4/1***--3/1--2/1--11/8-

-6/4--7/4)

10--Gary Moore (3/1--8/15--11/4--3/1--9/4**--11/4--4/7--4/6--4/1**--11/10)

10--J. Osborne (11/4--9/2--15/8--3/1--13/8--1/4--5/2--5/1**--6/4--7/2)

7--M. Botti (4/1--7/2**--11/8--11/8--4/1***--4/6--5/2**)

7--J. Gosden (10/11--6/4--6/4--6/5--5/2--6/4--11/4)

 

Individual racecourse stats:

Kempton:

Number of races: 95

Number of winning favourites (includes joint and co favourites): 34 (34/7% of races)

Odds on Ratio: 8/13 (61.6%)
Most winners:

5--A. Balding (11/10*--11/4*--4/1**--11/4--7/2*)

5--J. Boyle (2/1--14/1--5/2*--4/5*--6/1)

3--G. Baker (8/11*--8/1--20/1)

3--M. Botti (11/2--10/11*--9/4*)

3--David (P.D.) Evans (7/1--2/1--9/2*)

3--J.S. Moore (4/1--8/1--9/2)

 

Most beaten favourites:

4--Jo Crowley (4/7--6/4**--5/2**--7/4)

3--A. Balding (Evs--4/6--2/1)

3--M. Botti (4/1--11/8--4/6)

3--J. Gosden (10/11--6/4--6/4)

3--Gary Moore (11/4--9/4**--11/4)

3--J. Ryan (9/2--5/2--5/1**)

 

Lingfield:

Number of races: 149

Number of winning favourites: 55 (36.9%)

Odds on Ratio: 11/20 (55.0%)

 

Most winners:

4--J.S. Moore (20/1--5/1--7/4*--5/2)

4--J. Osborne (5/4*--9/4*--4/6*--9/4)

4--John Ryan (6/1--3/1*--5/4*--3/1)

4--Kevin Ryan (9/2--7/2**--11/2--5/1)

4--Ian Williams (9/2--7/2--16/1--7/2**)

 

Most beaten favourites:

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7--A. Balding (10/3--7/2**--6/4--4/1***--3/1--6/4--7/4)

6--Stuart Williams (7/2**--4/1--6/4--2/1--10/11--5/4)

4--C. Dore (5/1***--7/2**--7/2**--9/4)

4--Gary Moore (4/7--4/6--4/1**--11/10)

4--J. Osborne (3/1--5/2--5/1**--6/4)

 

Southwell:

Number of races: 24

Number of winning favourites: 8 (33.3% of races)

Odds on Ratio: 3/5 (60.0%)

 

Most winners:

2--M. Bell (10/1 & 4/9*)

2--D. Nicholls (7/2* & 8/1)

 

Most beaten favourites:

2--J. Osborne (11/4 & 9/2)

 

Wolverhampton:

Number of races: 120

Number of winning favourites: 48 (40.0%)

Odds on Ratio: 13/17 (76.5%)

 

Most winners:

6--M. Botti (Evs*--7/2--5/4*--7/2--2/1*--3/1)

6--K. Dalgleish (9/2--15/2--11/8*--9/2--13/8*--5/4*)

6--M. Easterby (12/1--13/2--7/2--9/4*--13/2--6/5*)

5--J. Osborne (13/2--20/1--11/8*--11/4*--Evs*)

 

Most beaten favourites:

5--A. Balding (3/1**--3/1--5/4--7/4--11/8)

4--K. Dalgleish (6/4--3/1--5/4--6/5)

4--B. Ellison (11/4--4/1**--9/4--11/4)

4--R. Fahey (4/1--9/4--2/1--13/8)

3--M. Easterby (9/2***--100/30--7/2)

3--M. Johnston (7/4--11/4--2/1)

3--J. Osborne (15/8--13/8--7/2)

 

Day by day analysis this week:

BOXING DAY (26/12):

Kempton:

Two mile novice hurdle event at 12.50: Favourites have won four of the eight contests during the last decade, with the biggest priced winner being returned at just 9/2.  Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-3 via recent renewals.

Two and a half mile handicap novice chase scheduled for 1.25: Nicky Henderson has won three of the last four renewals in which the trainer has saddled runners.  Three of the last four favourites have prevailed.

Class 1 ‘Feltham Novices Chase’ due to be contested at 2.00: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst favourites have secured six victories during the same period.  Market leaders come to the party on a four timer and with six-year-old Dynaste in the mix at the five-day stage, the positive trends look ominous for the opposition.

‘Christmas Hurdle’ scheduled for 2.35: This event has a more open look about it this year at the five-day stage, favourites having won five contests during the last decade.  Eight ‘recent’ winners scored at odds of 9/2 or less.

‘King George’ scheduled for 3.10: Eleven of the last ten winners have been sent off at odds of 8/1 or less, stats which include seven successful market leaders.  Paul Nicholls has secured five of the last six renewals thanks to Kauto Star and Kauto Stone was his only possible runner at the weekend, with the odds on the six-year-old shortening rapidly at the time of writing.  That said, Cue Card would have been my strong selection on decent ground, though the jury is out given the projected conditions.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.40: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last ten winners.  Four of the ten winners were returned at odds ranging between 10/1 and 25/1 during which time, three successful favourites were registered.

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Nicky Henderson leads the strike rate stats on 38% of the potentially represented trainers at the meeting.

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Nicky Henderson boasts exactly the same strike rate as recorded at Fontwell since Ffos Las opened for business back in 2009.

 

Huntingdon:

Three and a quarter-mile novice hurdle scheduled for 12.45: The biggest priced winner to date (via seven renewals) was returned at 15/2 during which time, two favourites obliged.

Class 4 handicap chase scheduled for 3.05: Six of the seven winners carried weights of 11-1 or less, whilst last year’s successful (5/2) favourite was the first market leader to oblige.

 

Market Rasen:

‘Lincolnshire National’ scheduled for 2.10: All six winners carried weights of 11-4 or less, with four gold medallists burdened with a maximum of 10-10.  Two favourites have obliged to date.

 

Towcester:

Two mile three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 12.45: Four of the six winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more to victory.  Only two of the six favourites (winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Two mile five furlong novice handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.20: All five favourites have been beaten to date.

Novice hurdle qualifier scheduled for 2.30: Five of the six winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-13, whilst just one market leader has prevailed thus far.

 

Sedgefield:

Flaming Arrow was due to contest the 12.10 event at the time of writing, Kevin Ryan’s only runner of the day.  Kevin has saddled two of his seven ‘recent’ runners at Sedgefield to winning effect.

 

Wetherby:

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.10:  Seven of the eight winners have carried a minimum of 10-11 to victory, whilst just one favourite has prevailed since 2002.  Four-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests.

Grade 3 ‘Rowland Mayrick Chase’ scheduled for 1.45: Just one of the last seven favourites has prevailed, whilst six gold medallists during the period were burdened with a maximum weight of just 10-7.

Class 3 handicap chase event scheduled for 2.55: Three market leaders have scored via eight renewals during the last decade.

 

Wincanton:

Novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 12.30: Four and five-year-olds have secured the last nine renewals of this race between them with five-year-olds having lifted six contests of late.  Favourites have won four of the last seven renewals.

Class 5 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.05: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, whilst just one favourite has obliged via the last seven renewals.

Class 3 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.25: Seven of the last ten winners carried weights of 11-1 or more.  Three of the last six renewals have been secured by market leaders.  Venetia Williams held three entries at the weekend in a race she has won with her last two runners.

Closing bumper event due to be contested at 3.55: Although Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the seven winners to date, the last three gold medallists were sent off at 33/1-33/1-14/1.  Four and five-year-olds have each secured three of the seven contests.

 

Wolverhampton (See stats above).

 

THURSDAY 27/12:

Chepstow:

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.00: Six-year-olds have secured five victories during the last decade, whilst market leaders have won three of the last six renewals.  Six of the last eight winners carried 11-2 or more to victory.

Welsh Grand National scheduled for 2.10: Only two of the last eight favourites have finished in the frame since the last successful (10/3) market leader scored back in 2003.  Eight of the ten winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle event due to be contested at 3.15: Five-year-olds have won seven renewals during the last decade, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a five timer on this occasion.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Favourites have won four of the last seven contests, whilst eight gold medallists during the last decade have scored at odds of 9/2 or less.

 

Kempton:

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Alan King has won with two of his last three representatives in this event, whilst favourites come to the gig on a four timer.  Alan’s only option at the weekend was McVicar.  Paul Nicholls offers the same recent stats as Alan, though Paul was double-handed at the five-day stage.

Grade 2 ‘Wayward Lad’ event due to be contested at 12.50: Nicky Henderson has secured four of the last six renewals, whilst five year-olds have picked up three of the last four contests.  Five-year-old Captain Conan is likely to represent Nicky this time around, though Friday’s Ascot winner Simonsig was still entered at the time of writing.

Handicap hurdle for mares at 1.20: Five-year-olds have won three of the six renewals to date, the same record that favourites have achieved to date.

‘Peterborough Chase’ scheduled for 1.50: Four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since Henrietta ruled this particular roost.

Grade 2 ‘Desert Orchid Chase’ scheduled for 2.30: Nicky Henderson (and this year’s market leader) come to the party on a hat trick, with Nicky holding two options at the five-day stage.  Four of the five winners carried weights of 11-4 or more.

Three mile Class 3 handicap chase event scheduled for 3.05: Just one (joint) favourite has obliged via seven renewals during the last decade.  Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 to victory, whilst 12/1 chances have won the last three contests.

Two mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.40: Nicky Henderson held two options for this event at the weekend, the trainer having secured three of the five renewals to date.  The last three (5/1) winners have carried weights of 11-9 or more.

 

Wetherby:

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.40: Five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (Favourites have won three of the five renewals), whilst five-year-olds boast the same stats as the market leaders.

Juvenile hurdle event due to be contested at 1.40: Favourites have won three of the six contests thus far, the biggest priced winner being returned at just 11/2.

Class 2 ’Castleford Chase’ scheduled for 2.20: We still await the first successful favourite following four renewals of the altered version of this event.  Eight-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer.

Twenty five furlong handicap hurdle set to go off at 3.25: The three winners to date have been returned at 33/1-25/1-6/1.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick.

Other meetings due to be staged: Lingfield & Wolverhampton (see stats in the opening paragraphs).

 

FRIDAY 28/12 (stats relate to last year‘s corresponding fixtures):

Catterick:

One joint and one clear favourite scored on a seven race card twelve months ago.  The average priced winner was 5/1, whilst all seven gold medallists were sent off at 11/1 or less.  Seven different trainers saddled winners on the day.  The toteplacepot dividend was declared at just £21.80, despite the fact that four horses finished in the frame when sent off at 28/1-28/1-20/1-12/1.

 

Leicester:

Nicky Henderson landed a 54/1 double on the Leicester card (10/1 & 4/1) via just three runners with only two races being on his agenda, as his 20/1 loser was in a race which was won by a stable companion!  The six winners were sent off at odds ranging between 2/1 and 14/1, statistics which included two successful market leaders.

 

Lingfield:

The first three successful favourites got punters off to a flying start, though just one other market leader prevailed via the other five contests.  Eight different trainers landed winners with an 11/1 chance returned as the biggest priced winner on the day.

 

Wolverhampton:

Three favourites scored on an eight race card where once again, different trainers won each and every race.  Seven winners scored at odds of 9/2 or less, the ‘rogue’ gold medallist being returned at 7/1.

 

SATURDAY 29/12 (stats relate to last year‘s corresponding cards):

 

Doncaster:

Just one successful market leader on a seven race card to report though that said, the first six winners scored at 11/2 or less, with a 25/1 shock winner in the closing bumper event.  Nicky Henderson landed a 20/1 treble via the first three winners on the card.

 

Newbury:

Three favourites (all odds on chances) won on the seven race ‘Mandarin’ card, with five of the winners scoring at odds of 3/1 or less.  Bookmakers recovered some of their losses via 14/1 and 12/1 winners though that said, the latter named (Celestial Halo) winner represented the popular yard of Paul Nicholls.  Winners for Messrs Nicholls, Henderson, King, Longsdon, Tizzard, Hobbs and the ‘local’ stable of Andy Turnell made this a desperate meeting for the majority of layers.

 

Kelso:

Lucinda Russell won the first two races on the card with each of her two (non favourites) being returned at 13/8 (thick end of a 6/1 double).  Just one (10/11) market leader obliged, the other four winners ranging in odds between 9/2 and 20/1.  Successful toteplacepot investors were rewarded with a dividend of £1,291.50.

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