Well, I Declare! 26th to 30th June 2012

Well I Declare, 26th to 30th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 26th to 30th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 26th to 30th June 2012

After the Royal Ascot extravaganza, I am focusing on the four venues which have extended meetings at the end of the week.  Doncaster, Chester and Newmarket all stage two-day meetings, whilst Newcastle’s three day Pitman’s Derby meeting starts on Thursday.  The stats offered are based on last year’s results unless stated.

 

TUESDAY 26/6:

Beverley:

General stats: None of the represented trainers at Beverley on Tuesday have outstanding strike rates at the venue, though Mel Brittain and Ollie Pears have decent level stake profits at the track in recent years.

 

Brighton:

General stats: Mark Johnston has saddled thirteen of his forty runners at Brighton in recent years to winning effect, his 33% strike rate producing forty-four points of level stake profits into the bargain. 

 

Newbury:

General stats: Passing Parade was the juvenile filly singled out for praise on a stable tour of Sir Henry Cecil’s Newmarket establishment earlier in the year which makes her potential participation in the 7.25 event an interesting one.

6.20: Six of the last nine horses to secured toteplacepot positions carried weights of 9-2 or more, statistics which include the three relevant winners at odds of 9/2-4/1-7/2.  All seven winners to date were sent off at 10/1 or less, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the seven contests. Four of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners--two silver medallists).

6.55: The only horse that Paul D’Arcy has saddled in this event (Lady Pattern) won the race in 2009 when returned as the 4/1 favourite whereby any money for the Paul’s Elusive City filly Magical Rose should be noted.  Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date (one winner).

7.25: Six of the eleven favourites have reached the frame via nine renewals (three winners), whilst the last five favourites have all secured toteplacepot positions.

8.35: Six of the last nine gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 9-2, whilst just two of the last fifteen favourites have obliged, whilst six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Gordon Elliott (6/17) is the ‘new kid on the block’ at Newton Abbot, whilst Paul Nicholls has accrued thirty-one points in the LSP sector, which is a very good record given the number of runners (141) he has saddled at the popular venue during the last five years.  

 

WEDNESDAY 27/6:

Bath:

General stats: Robert Cowell has saddled two of his three runners to winning effect at Bath to date. 

 

Carlisle:

General stats: Edwin Tuer boasts a strike rate of 44% via figures of 4/6, statistics which have produced a level stake profit of twenty-one points. 

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Salisbury is yet another track where Roger Varian has started well (3/10 to date), whilst this is Richard Price country (as is most of the south-west from a value for money perspective), the trainer boasting a 31% strike rate (5/16) in recent years.

2.20: Eight clear favourites have won alongside a joint market leader during the last 15 years. 12 of the 16 favourites secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  10 of the last 11 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

3.50: Six favourites have won via thirteen renewals to date, whilst twelve of the thirteen winners were returned at 7/1 or less.  Thirteen of the four market leaders have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective.

4.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals of this contest, whilst three of the last five favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

4.55: Seven of the eleven winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include the last four of the last five gold medallists. Ten of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the last decade.

5.25: Seven of the nine winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less to date, whilst ten of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, with two market leaders having snared the gold rosette.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ibtahaj is the only Saeed Bin Suroor runner at Kempton on Wednesday (the trainer boasts a 33% strike rate at the venue in recent times), the yard now being back to form after a quiet start to the season.

 

Worcester:

General stats: Anthony Honeyball enjoys a level stake profit of seventy-one points here at Worcester via a 31% strike rate relating to his 9/23 ratio).

 

THURSDAY 28/6:

Hamilton:

General stats: Given that Joe Fanning has ridden one hundred and thirty-four horses at Hamilton during the last five years, his 25% strike rate is an impressive figure to boast.  On the training front, Elaine Burke’s 25% strike rate is backed up by an LSP figure of over twenty points.

 

Leicester:

General stats: Gary Moore’s 31% strike rate is worth noting though this is another Leicester fixture which could be lost to a waterlogged track.

 

Newcastle:

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

20 races--21 winners via one dead heat:

Favourite details (25 market leaders): 7 winners--6 placed--12 unplaced

Two odds on favourites: Winner at 4/11 & placed at 5/6

16 of the 21 winners were returned at 15/2 or less

Other gold medallists scored at 11/1-12/1-16/1-18/1-25/1

Doubles on the relevant days:

Thursday: Brian Ellison (25/1--one of his winners dead heated)

Friday: Jim Goldie (11/1)

Brian saddled one more winner on another day to be leading trainer at the meeting

No other trainers saddled more than one winner during the three-day ‘festival’.

Ruth Carr, David O‘Meara, Brian Ellison and David Nicholls all saddled two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Thursday: £48.10 (average dividend over the last ten years: £459.15)

Friday: £29.00 (average dividend over the last ten years: £595.82)

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Saturday: £1,869.20 (average dividend over the last ten years: £911.18)

 

Warwick:

General stats: Sir Henry Cecil’s 42% strike rate in recent times stands out from the crowd, statistics which have enabled Tom Queally to steal the riding honours on a regular basis.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Three of William Knight’s last seven runners have finished second and his LSP figure of nearly seventy points at Yarmouth suggests that another decent priced winner could be on the horizon.

 

FRIDAY 29/6:

Chester:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

13 races:

Favourite details (14 market leaders): 4 winners--4 placed--10 unplaced

The only odds on favourite obliged at odds of 4/6

11 of the 13 winners were returned at 11/1 or less

The only trainer to saddle two winners was John Quinn (26/1 double)

Mark Johnston, Andrew Balding, Declan Carroll and William Haggas all saddled two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £132.10 (average dividend over the last four years: £386.30)

Saturday: £286.00 (average dividend over the last ten years: £168.11)

 

Doncaster:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

13 races:

Favourite details (14 market leaders): 5 winners--5 placed--4 unplaced

Three odds on favourites: 1 winner at 8/11--others beaten at 1/2 and 10/11

12 of the 13 winners were returned at 10/1 or less (other winner was a 16/1 chance)

The only trainer to saddle two winners was Richard Hannon (12/1 double)

Tim Easterby was the only trainer to saddle two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £238.70 (average dividend over the last four years: £168.60)

Saturday: £64.70 (average dividend over the last four years: £88.80)

 

Folkestone:

General stats: Jack Mitchell has already secured two booked rides at Folkestone on Friday and his record at the track in recent years is worth reading.  Jack boasts an LSP figure of ninety-eight points via a 30% strike rate (ratio of 9/23).

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Julie Camacho (36% strike rate) and Philip Kirby (27%) have both saddled four winners at the course whereby their runners are worth keeping on the right side, especially as their aggregate LSP figure stands at thirty-three points.  Moviesta (juvenile event on the card) is one to note given that trainer Brian Smart excels with his two-year-old representatives in Edinburgh.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Three of Ed Dunlop’s last eight runners had won at the time of writing (three others secured bronze medals) whereby his 5/10 record at Newcastle could be improved still further this week.

 

Newmarket:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

14 races:

Favourite details: 2 winners--6 placed--6 unplaced

The only odds on favourite was placed at odds of 2/5

12 of the 14 winners scored at odds of 9/1 or less (others scored at 16/1 & 12/1)

Three trainers saddled a double over the two days: David Ivory (59/1)--Richard Hannon (54/1)--Roger Varian (41/1)

Mahmood Al Zarooni and Brian Meehan both saddled two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £133.30 (average dividend over the last ten years: £386.79)

Saturday: £165.50 (average dividend over the last ten years: £994.80)

One mile Class 5 handicap scheduled for 5.55: The seven winners to date have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-6/1 to date, whilst fourteen of the twenty-one horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  Two favourites have finished in the frame thus far (no winners).

Six furlong event for maiden juvenile fillies scheduled for 6.30: Six of the last seven winners scored at 25/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-11/2 with a market leader sandwiched somewhere in between.  Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via twelve renewals.  Four market leaders have snared gold to date.

One mile claiming event scheduled for 7.05: Richard Hannon has saddled two of the last four winners. Thirteen of the last fifteen winners carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst twelve of the last sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners).

Class 3 six furlong event scheduled for 8.05: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last nine contests with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick.  Ralph Beckett (only potentially represented by Moretta Blanche as the five-day stage) has secured three of the last five renewals.  Four clear favourites and one joint market leader have scored via the last thirteen renewals of this Conditions event which is confined to fillies.  Nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Ten furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 8.40: Four-year-olds have ruled this event in recent years, snaring eight of the last 12 renewals (including five of the last seven contests).  Nine of the last twelve winners carried weights of 9-3 or more, whilst six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the last fifteen years (two winners).

 

SATURDAY 30/6:

Chester:

General stats: Donald McCain and William Haggas are two of any number of trainers whose runners perform with distinction on the Roodee, though Sir Mark Prescott’s recent 4/8 ratio catches the eye in no uncertain terms. 

Class 4 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.40: Mick Channon and Mark Johnston have saddled two winners of this event in the last six years with both trainers involved at the five-day stage.

Mixed vintage maiden event over ten furlongs scheduled for 3.10: The biggest priced winner to date via seven renewals was a 7/2 chance during which time, three favourites have won.  Litmus was the only potential raider from the Charlie Hills stable at the penultimate stage, his dad having saddled the winner of the race three times.

Class 2 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.45: Eight winners during the last decade have carried 8-13 or more to success, whilst only one clear market leader (alongside a joint favourite) has prevailed during the study period.

Class 3 five furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests during which time, no favourite has obliged.

Ten furlong claiming event scheduled for 4.50: Although only one favourite has prevailed during the last decade, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 7/1 chance.   Seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 9-1.

 

Doncaster:

General stats: David Lanigan’s 6/13 figures stand out from the crowd on Town Moor of late.  Sir Henry Cecil and Roger Varian’s runners should also be kept on the right side. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Alan Jarvis saddled a 9/1 winner on the Knavesmire a week or two back and his stable looks ready to come into decent form.  Alan’s 30% strike rate at Lingfield is backed up by an LSP figure in excess of twenty points.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Roger Varian (2/3) and Ed Vaughan (2/5) are other trainers to note alongside Ed Dunlop (see Friday notes), whilst John Gosden’s 29% strike rate is decent enough too. 

Northumberland Plate (Pitman’s Derby) scheduled for 3.20: Statistics for the last decade:

The last nine winners have carried 8-11 or less, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists were returned at odds ranging between 14/1 and 33/1.  Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals during which time, vintage representatives secured one third (8/24) of the available toteplacepot positions.  At least one four-year-old has finished in the frame in each of the last nine years. Draw details & favourite stats (working backwards from 2011):

14-11-16-21 (19 ran--good to soft--6/1 favourite unplaced)

21-14-4-7 (19 ran--good to firm--3/1 favourite unplaced)

4-2-3-5 (17 ran--soft--13/2 favourite unplaced)

6-12-5-18 (18 ran-soft--4/1 favourite unplaced)

13-4-18-2 (20 ran--heavy--favourite won at odds of 5/1)

16-19-18-5 (20 ran--good to firm--one of the two 9/2 joint favourites finished in the frame)

7-17-11-1 (20 ran--good--7/2 favourite unplaced)

5-7-10-18 (19 ran--soft--5/2 favourite in the frame)

1-2-7-8 (20 ran--good to soft--9/2 favourite unplaced)

9-12-6-2 (16 ran--good to firm--3/1 favourite in the frame)

 

Newmarket:

General stats: I don’t know very much about local (Exning) trainer Clifford Lines though his 2/4 ratio at Newmarket demands plenty of respect.

 

Windsor:

General stats: Robert Eddery’s 30% strike rate at Windsor via three winners often gets overlooked when racing is staged at the alternative royal venue.

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