‘Well I Declare’ 27th July 2011

More declarations of intent from the five day entries...Malcolm Boyle marks your card for the races of interest from the five day declarations. More tasty winners last week, and more expected this week. 🙂

WEDNESDAY:

Goodwood:

2.35: Favourites have won five of the last eight renewals, the biggest priced winner being returned at odds of 6/1 during the period.

3.10: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals of the Sussex Stakes, stats which support the claims of FRANKEL.

3.45: Sir Michael Stoute (ARCH FIRE) has been represented in three of the last four contests, during which time he has saddled winners returned at 14/1 and 5/1.

5.30: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, whilst favourites of one description or another have secured six of the last nine contests, which is a great record in handicap terms.

Leicester:

6.10: Ralph Beckett has saddled two of the last three winners of this event and the trainer holds strong claims this time around having declared BY INVITATION .  It’s worth noting that Ralph was not represented in the ‘missing year’.

Redcar:

2.10: Three-year-olds have secured ten of the twelve available toteplacepot positions, stats which include three of the four winners.

5.40: Four-year-olds have won four of the five contests thus far.

Sandown:

8.35: Sir Mark Prescott comes to the gig on a hat trick and MEMORY LANE represents the yard this time around.

THURSDAY:

Goodwood:

2.15: Five of the last ten favourites have won which is a phenomenal record in handicap races like this, especially when you digest the fact that the biggest priced winner during the study period was a 9/1 chance.  John Gosden (TROPICAL BEAT) has saddled three of the last eight winners.

4.55: Nine of the last ten winners have carried 9-4 or less (includes the last six gold medallists) whilst winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence during the study period.

5.25: The six winners to date were returned at 25/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-8/1-7/1.

Nottingham: 

4.40: All six winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less, stats which include three winning favourites.

5.15: The last five winners have carried 9-5 or more, being sent off at 20/1-16/1-11/1-9/1-8/1.

FRIDAY:

Goodwood:

Group 3 ‘Glorious Stakes’ scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests whilst having secured ten of the last fifteen available win and place positions.

‘Totesport Mile’ scheduled for 3.10: Mark Johnston comes into the contest on a hat trick and unusually, the trainer held just two options for the race at the penultimate stage.

‘Richmond Stakes’ scheduled for 3.45: Richard Hannon has won the last three renewals and his highly rated Acclamation colt HARBOUR WATCH was one of three potential contenders earlier in the week.

Nursery event scheduled for 4.20: Richard Hannon held five options for this two-year-old handicap which he has secured three times in the last nine years.  The last four winners have carried 9-2 or more and LORDOFTHESHADOWS was the only one of Richard’s quintet in the relevant sector of the weights at the time of writing.

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‘Oak Tree Stakes’ scheduled for 4.50: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals.

Bangor:

Novice handicap chase scheduled for 2.45: Jonjo O’Neill comes to the gig on a hat trick and KENSINGTON OVAL was his only option earlier in the week.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.20: Call it coincidence if you like but six-year-olds come into the contest on a five-timer.

Newmarket:

Mixed vintage Class 4handicap scheduled for 5.50: Four-year-olds had won four off the bounce before last year’s lone vintage representative failed to make it a nap hand.

Class 4 2YO maiden scheduled for 6.20: Six of the last nine favourites have prevailed, during which time the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/2.

2YO novice stakes scheduled for 6.55: Jeremy Noseda had won three of the last five renewals of the previous race but was not represented at the time of writing.  Jeremy has won two of the three renewals of this event thus far and the trainer’s only potential runner was JUBILANCE at the time of writing.  There is a strong tip given the previous sentences hidden somewhere within the analysis!  All three favourites have obliged to date.

Class 4 mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 7.30: Four-year-olds have won the last four contests having secured seven of the eight available toteplacepot positions in the process.

3YO handicap scheduled for 8.05: Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more.

Thirsk:

Mixed vintage Class 5 handicap scheduled for 2.55: Four-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals whilst 14/1 representatives found their way into the frame in each of the ‘missing years’.

Class 4 mixed vintage maiden event scheduled for 3.30: Market leaders have secured seven of the last nine contests.

SATURDAY:

Goodwood:

Stats for the Nassau Stakes scheduled for 3.10: Since the turn of the Millennium: Favourites record: 7 winners--3 placed--1 unplaced----1st three in the market: All 11 winners--7 placed--17 unplaced----Horses returned at odds of 6/1 or more: No winners--10 placed--49 unplaced----Vintage stats (total of 90 runners): 3-Y-O: 7 winners--8 placed--34 unplaced----4-Y-O: 3 winners--7 placed--20 unplaced----5-Y-O: 1 winner--2 placed--5 unplaced----6-Y-O: 3 unplaced representatives

Stats for the Steward’s Cup scheduled for 3.45: Favourite stats for the last 14 years: 2 winners—6 placed—8 unplaced. Stats for last six renewals:  21 of the 24 toteplacepot positions claimed by horses carrying 8-13 or more.  Twenty five five-year-olds have run: 3 winners—6 places—16 unplaced.  Stats for last nine years:  109 horses have started at 28/1 or more gaining one win and just three place positions in the process.  Just 8/162 runners starting at 18/1 or more have finished in the frame.

Doncaster:

3YO handicap scheduled for 3.20: Just one of the last eight favourites prevailed.

3YO handicap scheduled for 5.05: All three winners have carried 9-6 or more to date.

Hamilton:

Five furlong fillies’ handicap scheduled for 8.10: No winning favourites recorded in the last eight years though the gold medallists were returned at odds ranging between 100/30 and 9/1.

Lingfield:

Mixed vintage Class 6 handicap scheduled for 7.25: Ron Harris has saddled two winners of this event in the last three years and the trainer held two options at the five-day stage.

2YO maiden event scheduled for 7.55: Although only two favourites have won via seven renewals, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/1.

Newmarket:

Class 3 mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 4.05: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more.

Thirsk:

2YO maiden event scheduled for 1.55: Favourites have won seven of the last ten renewals with the biggest priced winner returned at just 9/2 during the period.

Mixed vintage event for fillies scheduled for 3.05: Six renewals have not brought about a successful market leader thus far.

Class 3 handicap over one mile scheduled for 4.10: Five-year olds had won four consecutive contests before a 15/2 vintage representative snared the silver medal via four relevant raider twelve months ago.

Two mile handicap scheduled for 4.45: We still await the first successful favourite following seven contests.

SUNDAY: 

Newbury:

Nursery event scheduled for 3.30: Mick Channon held three options during the week for a race which his raiders have won three times in the last six years.

Handicap confined to fillies scheduled for 5.00: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1 have won the last seven renewals.

Chester:

2YO maiden event scheduled for 2.10: Favourites have won seven of the last ten renewals.

‘Queensferry Stakes’ (Listed) scheduled for 3.30: Kevin Ryan has secured three of the last four renewals and the trainer was potentially represented by LEXI’S HERO at the penultimate stage.

Class 3 one mile handicap scheduled for 4.05: David Evans has saddled four winners during the last decade and the trainer only had course and distance winner FRED WILLETS entered up at the time of writing.

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