Well I Declare: 28th August

Well I Declare: 28th August to 1st September

Well I Declare: 28th August

Well I Declare: 28th August

Mal Boyle is currently away on a well-deserved break, but he has prepared your regular racing preview in advance of his trip: here are his thoughts on the week ahead...

I am away for a three/four days this week whereby I apologise for the slightly edited version of the service. I have put together everything I could, considering I am leaving overnight on Monday….hoping that the facts and stats produce more winners for you. Meetings have a hit or miss look about them after a Bank Holiday with new meetings added to the racing calendar where needed.  If this coincides with a leap year (which it did this time around) trends go out of the window. 

‘Leap Year’ never helps regarding fixtures (the powers that be are easily ruffled--one day is enough to put them ‘out of sync‘) and let’s face it, what is the point of ’Leap year’ anyway? Do we really want ‘Venus types’ proposing to us?!!!  Only joking girls, only joking!

Have a great week.


TUESDAY 28/08:

Epsom:

General stats: Julian Wilson was not my ‘cup of tea’ in the old days when the presenter aired his ‘upper class views’ on racing though one point I agreed with was his lack of understanding relating to how the (supposed) greatest flat race in the world (The Derby) could be staged at this Switchback track.  I could never bring myself to stake too much of my hard-earned wages on a track where so many horses ’fail to act’.   Upwards and onwards however by suggesting that Seb Sanders (13/49) and Kieren Fallon (10/39) can certainly ride horses that are unaffected by the camber around the twists and turns to good effect.  Sir Mark Prescott (11/26) and Scott Dixon (3/6) seemingly whisper the right words in the ears of their representatives from a training perspective.

2.15: A Richard Hannon representative was beaten two necks in the inaugural contest in 2009, though the trainer has subsequently made amends by winning the next two renewals.  Richard is represented by Lisa’s Legacy this time around and though the Kyllachy colt was beaten six lengths last time out, the March colt was far too good for the other three contenders and this race represents a definite chance of going one better by scoring at the fourth time of asking.  The only favourite to finish in the frame via three renewals to date was the 2010 winner.

2.50: Jim Boyle secured the inaugural contest back in 2009 and his Pastoral Pursuits raider Perfect Pastime could score here, especially with Seb Sanders in the saddle.  Few jockeys can equal Seb’s mastery of the switchback track and Jim’s four-year-old could be the answer to a difficult puzzle.  Seb’s recent 27% strike rate at the venue makes for even more impressive reading when taking into account his sixty-seven LSP figure.

3.25: Andrew Balding has only saddled one runner in this event via the last three renewals which scored at 11/4 two years ago, whereby the declaration of Van Percy catches the eye.  Favourites have won five of the seven renewals to date and with the other two market leaders having finished second in their respective events, this is one of the best juvenile races on the calendar in terms of the record of ‘jollies’.  The other two winners scored at 11/4 and 9/1.

3.55: Five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals during the last decade, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

4.30: Beaten favourite Seven Veils might be worth another chance in this grade/company, especially taking Sir Mark Prescott’s 11/26 ratio at Epsom into account. Three of the four market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include one (11/4) winner.

 

Ripon:

General stats: Brian Meehan only sent a few raiders up to York last week but the trainer still recorded some decent results and Brian’s record of 5/24 at this venue reads well enough given the competitive nature of the sport in these parts. 

2.00: Unusually for races confined to three and four-year-olds, the older horses had dominated this race until last year's junior gold medallist scored at odds of 1/3 to bring a halt to five consecutive victories for the four-year-olds.

2.30: Four of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three of the last four winners.

3.05: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick though market leaders have only secured three victories during the last decade.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

3.40: Tim Easterby comes to the party on a hat trick, though his representative Shrimper Roo will have to improve on Sunday's Beverley effort to figure in proceedings at the business end of the equation. The last ten winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

4.15: Ed Dunlop has saddled a few winners of late (overdue for a trainer who is not enjoying the best of seasons) and Ed is one of just two handlers who are in tune to the vintage stats in this event.  Four-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals, yet just Ed's raider Voodoo Prince and Watts Up Son (Declan Carroll) have been declared via fourteen contenders!

4.45: Four-year-olds rule the waves again here according to the gospel of yours truly as vintage representatives have secured half (3/6) the available toteplacepot positions in this event, statistics which include both (3/1 & 2/1) winners.

5.15: The lone four-year-old in the line-up twelve months ago failed to secure a fifth consecutive victory for the vintage

 

Southwell:

General stats: Frankie Dettori has ridden three of his five mounts in recent years at Southwell to winning effect, whilst Jamie Spencer’s 29/80 ratio (LSP reading of thirty-five points) makes for impressive reading.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Overlay potentially represents Lawney Hill in the scheduled 4.40 event with the trainer boasting superb 3/3 stats at Sedgefield in recent years.  Even if Overlay is re-routed elsewhere, I will leave the stat in place for your benefit relating to the future meetings at the racecourse. 

 

WEDNESDAY 29/08:

Carlisle:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott held two options at the Cumbrian circuit at the weekend, Mark having saddled three of his four runners at the racecourse to winning effect in recent years. 


Catterick:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott held two options at the time of writing, the trainer attempting to build on his 23% strike rate at venue during the last five years. 

2.10: Three favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven of the eight winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

2.40: All eight winners during the last decade have been sent off at 10/1 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

3.10: Five of the seven winners thus far have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-7. Three favourites have won since the inaugural running back in 2005 during which time.

3.40: The last seven gold medallists have carried weights of 9-2 or less.  Successful market leaders have only been conspicuous by their absence via eight contests during the last decade.  That said, three of the last four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.10: Six of the last nine available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses sent off in double figures, statistics which include the last two (16/1 & 14/1) winners. Four renewals have slipped by since the first two favourites obliged back in 2005/6.

4.40: The last six winners of the toteplacepot finale carried a maximum burden of 9-1. All eight winners during the last decade have scored at odds of 10/1 or less, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

5.10 & 5.45 (two divisions of the contest): Six of the eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of nine stones during which time, just one favourite has obliged. The other seven winners were sent off at odds ranging between 7/1 and 25/1, which four gold medallists returned in double figures.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Michael J Murphy’s 4/7 strike rate from the saddle in recent times attracts the eye in no uncertain terms.  Michael’s figures include a positive level stake profit of over twenty points during the period.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian would have hoped for a better Ebor meeting but a week is a long time in the sport of kings whereby Roger will be attempting to improve his impressive Wolverhampton strike rate of 7/15 at Dunstall Park.

 

Worcester:

General stats: Rachel Green continues to excel at the track having now ridden eleven winners from just twenty-one opportunities.  The incredible ratio has produced a level stake profit of eighty-five points.

 

THURSDAY 30/08:

Apologies for the lack of a main meeting on which to offer stats and facts.  Every now and then (because of Bank Holiday schedules usually), a day occurs when ‘new meetings’ generally rule the roost whereby no trends are in place….and this is one such occasion. Lingfield ‘ripping up their carpet’ did not help on this occasion!

 

Hamilton:

General stats: William Haggas has saddled five of his twelve runners at Hamilton to winning effect thus far, whilst Jeremy Noseda’s 2/5 ratio is worth noting. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Derek Haydn Jones boasts 3/7 figures in recent years, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of ten points. However, Roger Charlton record of 7/17 during the last five years makes for even more impressive reading.

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Kempton:

General stats: The yellow and blue stars colours of Pearl Bloodstock have been prominent at Kempton in recent years, claiming eleven successes from just twenty-three runners.  The stats have helped to achieve a level stake profit of thirty-five points. The other positive factor is that the colours are easy to spot, even in a big field!

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate) and Donald McCain (33%) lead the figures of the potentially represented trainers at Fontwell on Thursday, whilst Renee Robeson’s (2/8) runners might be worth a saver.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Jim Best will not want this venue to close down, given that the trainer boasts figures of 7/21 (eight points LSP) whilst John Ferguson’s rare visits have paid via 2/4 figures. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: I hope I have alerted you to the training talents of Richard Woolacott in recent weeks and months and this is one of the venues to focus on given Richard’s 2/4 ratio. 

 

FRIDAY 31/08:

Further interruption to the service on Friday as trends for Sandown and Salisbury (alongside the other potential venues) are only conspicuous by their absence.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Richard Price has saddled an average of fourteen winners a year of late whereby his current total of six is a disappointing return.  Richard’s record at Salisbury offers hope for potential investors however as the trainer boasts a 26% strike rate via five winners during the last five years, statistics which have yielded twenty points of level stake profits for good measure. 

 

Sandown:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (33%) and Jeremy Noseda (32%) lead the potential trainers at the meeting from a strike rate perspective. 

 

Thirsk:

General stats: I doubt that Kieren Fallon will take up the option of one ride he had booked at the track as Sandown held more engagements for the ex champion at the time of writing.  That said, I should point out Kieren’s 3/5 ratio at Thirsk for future meetings.

One mile juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Trainers do not help the cause at times because Mick Channon has saddled three winners of this event when represented in the contest and yes you guessed it, Mick did not have a runner involved at the five day stage!  I have left the information in the analysis for your convenience for the 2013 contest.  Only one of the four short priced favourites has even reached the frame (an 8/13 chance) with the winners being returned at 11/3-5/1-12/1-18/1 to date.

Two mile handicap event scheduled for 2.40: Both favourites have finished out of the (short field) frames thus far behind 7/1 and 11/2 winners.

Three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 3.50: Two of the three favourites (including an 11/4 winner) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Classified event over six furlongs due to be contested at 4.25: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include a successful 4/6 market leader.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: The only favourite to secure a toteplacepot position via four renewals to date was the winner of one of the two divisions of the 2010 contest at odds of 4/1.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: William Knight held two options on the card at the time of writing, boasting a 26% strike rate at Wolverhampton via eleven winners during the last five years.

 

Bangor:

General stats: Richard Johnson leads Tony McCoy from both a strike rate and a level stake profit perspective at Bangor, recording respective figures of 26% and thirty-three points during the last five years.  Martin Todhunter’s 24% strike rate (4/17) is worth noting, especially as the trainer has secured an LSP figure of nine points into the bargain.

 

SATURDAY 01/09:

Bath:

General stats: Roberts Cowell’s 4/6 ratio at Bath suggests that we could be making a decent profit on Saturday if the trainer offers the green light to any of his runners.


Beverley:

General stats: Marco Botti held two options earlier in the week having saddled both runners to winning effect at the Yorkshire venue thus far. 

 

Chester:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s 5/11 ratio on the Roodee stands out from the crowd.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Luke Dace (3/13) is worth a second glance when he declares representatives at the Esher venue.

Class 3 all aged five furlong handicap scheduled for 2.15: One clear market leader and three joint favourites have won, whilst 10 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group 3 ‘Solario Stakes’ scheduled for 2.50: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last six winners with Mark’s only option at five-day stage being his ‘Acomb’ runner up Steeler. Three favourites have scored during the last 14 years, whilst six of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group ’Atlanta Stakes’ scheduled for 3.25:  Sir Michael Stoute has saddled two of the last six winners and his recent Listed race runner-up Dank was Michael’s only at the five-day stage. Just two favourites have scored during the last decade though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 17/2 chance.  Five of the 11 market leaders during the period have secured toteplacepot positions.

All aged ten furlong handicap event due to be contested at 4.00: Four-year-olds have claimed eight of the last 11 renewals, whilst 10 of the last 12 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more. Two clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won during the study period, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Nursery event scheduled for 4.30: Five of the last 12 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Ian Williams (7/29) and David Bridgwater (3/11) are two trainers to look out for at the tea-time meeting.

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Gordon Elliot (7/18) and Gary Brown (4/12) are alternative trainers to note alongside more obvious handlers such as Paul Nicholls (32% strike rate during the last five years via 42 winners producing a thirty point LSP figure).

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