Well, I Declare! 22/05/12

Well I Declare, 29th May 2012

Well, I Declare! 29/05/12

Well, I Declare! 29/05/12

We've had lots of requests to break our weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature down into smaller daily updates, so your wish is our command, as they say!

From Tuesday to Saturday each week, we'll bring you a daily version and this week's bulletins will also contain some draw analysis of both The Oaks & The Derby for all you ante-post backers.

TUESDAY 29/05:

Chepstow:

General stats: We normally associate Tim Vaughan with NH racing but it’s worth noting that Tim has a 27% strike rate here at Chepstow on the level (matched by Mark Johnston) and his only runner today is Tae Kwon Do in the 4.00 event.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Frankie Dettori is becoming for ‘forgotten man’ of flat racing though it’s worth recalling his 39% strike rate here at Lingfield when considering his two mounts at the track today.

 

Ripon:

General stats: Star of Rohm is only Michael Bell’s second juvenile runner at Ripon in the last five years, his other two-year-old having scored at 5/4.

 

Hexham:

General stats: Madamlily (8.15) is John Quinn’s only runner on the card, the trainer boasting a recent 39% strike rate (7/18) at Hexham.

 

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Huntingdon:

General stats: This is one of the tracks where Henrietta Knight will be missed as the popular trainer saddled so many winners at Huntingdon, particularly in the ‘bumper’ sector.  Onwards and upwards however by revealing that Polly Gundry has won with both of her runners at the track whereby her only raider today at the course (Mix N Match) might be worth a saver in the 6.55 contest.  Otherwise it is very much a case of ‘as you were’ with Nicky Henderson dominating the winners list via a strike rate of 35% in recent times.

 

ANTE-POST DRAW ANALYSIS

The Oaks (Friday):

Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

The Derby (Saturday):

Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored.  Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1981. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

 

 

9 replies
  1. david scammell says:

    WID draw record is interesting but I wonder if it takes into account the recent change in the draw arrangement? It used to be as you looked at the stalls no1 was on the extreme right hand side, but now it is different and I am still not sure how it works!!. So has the draw list shown taken this into account?

  2. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    The draw details are merely offered as they stand, whereby readers must determine if high or low numbers have the edge, dependent on what the powers that be are changing from time to time!

    Mal.

  3. steve says:

    Working on your above stats for the 12 declared in the Derby stalls 5-8 would hold an advantage.
    I think this could be down to been able to take a straighter route to the top of the hill.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi guys,

      It’s my view that, given there’s likely to be a single figure field for the Derby this year, you’d be far better served looking for a horse with class which stays the trip. Draw cannot possibly be a material factor this time, in my view.

      Best,
      Matt

  4. ianf0ster says:

    Surely, staying the trip has to be taken on trust based upon breeding. I think only 2 have won over 12F (Main Sequence and Mickdaam) and only 4 have ever run over that distance.

    And the RP site says:
    Derby chances also entered in French equivalent. Investec Derby entries Astrology, Imperial Monarch and Main Sequence are among 30 remaining in Sunday’s Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly after the first forfeit stage on Tuesday.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Yes and no, Ian. Yes, there is a trust element. But… it’s less pronounced in some cases, where trials have been over 10f+ (e.g. Bonfire) or where breeding and run style indicates middle distances (e.g. Camelot, winner of RP Trophy, a strong Derby Trial, and thoroughly staying on winner of 2000G).

      But in general, I do agree that if you have a strong notion your horse will stay, it doesn’t matter what price it is, you’ll get some sort of run.

      Then there is course constitution, going, trainer form, and all the other elements which make Derby betting something to be avoided / a joyous puzzle*

      Matt

      *delete as appropriate

  5. John Evans says:

    Hi Matt,
    My Computer crashed a few weeks ago. I lost your Email address to sent an update on my System.
    Yours,
    John Evans.
    Gwent.

  6. Derek McClatchey says:

    Unfortunately, for some reason I have not received yesterday or today,s well I Declare e-mail, could you please forward it as soon as possible?

    • Chris says:

      Derek,
      There are currently no plans to email our membership each day telling them that the daily WID feature is online, just as we don’t email about Stat of the Day on a daily basis. We have found in the past that people don’t want us emailing every day. However, the Well I Declare feature is always available at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/category/horse-racing-blog/well-i-declare/ , so I’d suggest you bookmark that and you can then check it out each day.

      Thanks,
      Chris

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