Well, I Declare! 02/06/12

Well I Declare, 2nd June 2012

Well, I Declare! 02/06/12

Well, I Declare! 02/06/12

Today is, of course, Derby Day: so we'll start our daily preview at Epsom, but we've also got the details of the rest of the day's action from Beverley, Catterick, Cartmel, Haydock, Musselburgh and Stratford.


General stats: Please note Friday’s comments alongside Kieren Fallon’s 8/30 record here at Epsom in recent years.  It is fifteen years since the ex champion rode his second classic winner when steering Sir Henry Cecil’s Oaks winner Reams Of Verse to success at the track back in 1997, having won the 1000 Guineas aboard Sleepytime for the same trainer earlier that year.

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 1.35: Horses drawn in the ‘red box’ (stall one) have secured five of the last twelve winners of this event. Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  Eleven of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)
1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)
6-1-5 (12 ran-good)
10-1-2 (14 ran-good)
8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)
8-11-9 (11 ran-good)
1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)
11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)
1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)
1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)
2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Woodcote Stakes over six furlongs scheduled for 2.05: Mark Johnston has secured three renewals during the last decade and the trainer held three options at the penultimate stage. Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have won of late, while eight of the last sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
11-10-3 (12 ran-good)
3-10-2 (10 ran-good)
11-9-1 (13 ran-good)
1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)
2-5-9 (10 ran-good)
1-7-5 (8 ran-good)
3-8-1 (10 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)
2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)
8-2 (7 ran-good)
2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)
2-5 (7 ran-good)


Coronation Cup scheduled for 2.40: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last fourteen victories whilst Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last seven renewals of this Group 1 prize. Four of the last fourteen favourites have won, whilst ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

1-3 (5 ran-good)
8-5-1 (9 ran-good)
8-5-1 (8 ran-good)
7-3-10 (11 ran-good)
2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)
5-2 (6 ran-good)
9-6 (7 ran-good)
5-1-3 (11 ran-good)
4-8-7 (9 ran-good)
3-4 (6 ran-soft)
1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)
2 (4 ran-good to soft)
3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (7 ran-good)


‘Dash’ event over five furlongs scheduled for 3.15: Dandy Nicholls has saddled four of the last ten winners, whilst eleven the last thirteen favourites have finished out of the frame since a 9/2 joint favourite prevailed back in 2001.

‘Draw details’ (five furlongs):

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9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)
18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)
8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)
15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)
17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)
10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)
8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)
10-11-8 (11 ran—good)
1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)
12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)
3-1-12 (12 ran—good)
11-2-9 (11 ran—good)
10-2-4 (15 ran—good)


The Derby due to be contested at 4.00: Aidan O’Brien was responsible for five of the twelve declarations at the five-day stage.  The only obvious advice to offer is to wait and see if Bonfire ‘boils over’ given all the preliminaries of the ‘Blue Riband’ event before deciding whether to lay or play.  Seventeen of the thirty-one odds on favourites have won the Epsom Derby (54.8%) whilst ‘only’ seventeen of the last fifty market leaders have scored.

Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored.  Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)


Class 2 mile and a half handicap scheduled for 4.50: Four-year-olds have claimed seven of the last 14 renewals including six of the last eight (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last three years). Nine of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-1. Only one favourite has won during the past fourteen years, whilst just two of the other thirteen market leaders have additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)
3-15-9 (15 ran-good)
16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)
10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)
15-4-20-9 (good)
10-12-3 (13 ran-good)
4-6-2 (8 ran-good)
2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)
9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)
4-2-1 (12 ran-good)
3-5-7 (11 ran-good)
1-11-13 (15 ran-good)


Class 2 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.25: The six previous market leaders finished out of the frame before last season’s favourite obliged.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

4-7-9 (15 ran-good to firm)
13-4-14-3 (16 ran-good to firm)
17-7-4-8 (16 ran-good)
2-12-6 (12 ran-good)
9-1-11-6 (16 ran-good)
5-17-6-1 (17 ran-good to firm)
3-12-13 (15 ran-good)
1-13-9-11 (17 ran-good)
2-1-3-17 (17 ran-good)
7-8-11 (15 ran-good to soft)



General stats: Cathcart Castle (scheduled to contest the 5.40 event) is an interesting runner for Simon West who has saddled three of his seven runners at Beverley to winning effect. Please also refer back to Wednesday’s meeting at Beverley for further information.



General stats: Mark Tompkins (23%) and Sir Mark Prescott (22%) head the strike rates of potentially represented trainers at the meeting.



General stats: Although Tom Dascombe’s 18% strike rate is nothing to write home about, Tom’s LSP figure of thirty-seven points is worth noting.



General stats: Alan Swinbank and Tina Jackson both boast the same 43% strike rates via figures of 3/7 in recent years.



General stats: Bryan’s Smart’s 17/36 record in the juvenile sector at Musselburgh is one of the best strike rates of any trainer at all the venues in the land relating to two-year-old representatives.



General stats: Phil Middleton has achieved level stake profits of thirty-three points via his 4/13 strike rate at Stratford in recent years.

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