Well, I Declare: 2nd October

Well I Declare: 2nd to 6th October

Well, I Declare: 2nd October

Well, I Declare: 2nd October

If ever there was a message to 'tread carefully' in punting terms, this report I researched for the entire week is the one!

134/188 winners last year were saddled by trainers who had just the one gold medallist during the week (Monday through Sunday) which suggests that as is invariably the case this time of year, unlikely results are on the agenda.

Because of the lack of consistent winners, I have included yesterday’s and next Sunday’s details from last year to give a slightly wider picture to see if Monday (yesterday) offered any more hope for more consistent figures.

Last week’s corresponding details produced 23 winners, statistics which included fifteen non favourites including those sent off at 10/1-8/1 -6/1 (twice).

There was also a 33/1 winner tucked away in despatches as I alerted you to the mounts of Michael J M Murphy at Goodwood and sure enough, Michael did the business for us on a horse which paid 55/1 on the Tote.

Leading trainers twelve months ago: 

FLAT (91/133 winners trained by handlers with just one gold medallist):

8--Richard Hannon (36/1 double yesterday)

6--Mark Johnston (5/1 winner yesterday)

3--Ralph Beckett

3--Mick Channon (all on the Saturday--134/1 treble)

3--Michael Dods

3--John Gosden (3/1 winner yesterday)

3--Saeed Bin Suroor

3--Mahmood Al Zarooni

 

NH (43/55):

3--Brian Ellison

3--John Ferguson

3--Donald McCain

 

Day to day details for this week:

TUESDAY 02/10:

Ayr:

General stats: Ingleby Symphony runs off the type of mark (8-13) that the majority of Richard Fahey's handicappers score from though obviously, this bad ground is a handicap to all thoroughbreds, irrespective of the comment that some horses "prefer it to others". Slower horses do for obvious reasons!

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Johnston has saddled four losers since notching his ninety ninth winner at Wolverhampton during the last five years and the century is well on the cards this week! 

3.30: Although most of his winners would have gained their relevant successes in the maiden sector, Sir Michael Stoute boasts a twenty-eight per cent strike rate with his three-year-olds at Wolverhampton and Cantal could improve the ratio.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Fergal O’Brien has a couple of each way types on the card to consider, especially as his last nine runners have secured three gold, three silver and one bronze medal.

2.20: Six of the last sixteen market leaders have won, whilst thirteen favourites secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.20: Six-year-olds have won three of the five contests thus far via just eight representatives which suggests that course and distance winner TREGARO could be regarded as a decent bet, especially as Denis O’Regan’s mount in the lone vintage raider on this occasion.  Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include one (11/8) winner.

4.20: Five of the six market leaders have finished in the frame thus far via five renewals.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader let the side down from a toteplacepot perspective, whilst two (7/4 and 7/2 joint) favourites have won to date.

4.50: Four of the eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the finale of our favourite wager, statistics which include two successful favourites via seven renewals.

 

WEDNESDAY 03/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Eight of Saeed Bin Suroor’s last nine runners at Kempton have been beaten but at a track where the trainer excels (32% strike rate), watch out for the trainer to ’bite back’ very soon.

7.40: Who says trainers are not creatures of habit?  Richard Hannon saddled three runners in the inaugural running of this Nursery event last year and the trainer follows suit this time around.  For the record, Richard’s horses finished 1st (3/1), 3rd (12/1) and 4th (20/1) twelve months ago.

8.10: All seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones whilst two favourites have prevailed thus far.  Only three of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

8.40: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick (the other two market leaders failed to secure toteplacepot positions) whilst Richard Hannon (Ninjago) has won two of the four renewals to date.

9.10: We still await the first favourite to finish in the fame behind winners sent off at 14/1-8/1-15/2.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: William Haggas and Noel Quinlan each boast a 40% strike rate at Gosforth Park, albeit William’s record relates to ten winners during the last five years as opposed to Noel’s brace of gold medallists.

3.45 & 4.20 (two divisions): All four winners carried weights of 8-12 or more, whilst three of the four favourites have won at 5/1-4/1-3/1.

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5.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last twelve renewals, whilst three favourites have prevailed via the last eight contests, statistics which has produced a level profit strike rate of 7.5 points during the period.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham is a rare visitor to Nottingham, though two of her four runners in recent times have prevailed.  Lucy’s strike rate with juveniles (23% during the last five years) is fair enough considering she has few two-year-olds in her care and newcomer Nullarbor Sky is Lucy’s representative on the card in the 4.30 event.

3.55 & 4.30 (two divisions): John Dunlop won both divisions of the 2010 event but was not represented last year.  John’s only potential runner in the race last weekend was Alnawiyah and sure enough, John has offered his inmate the green light. Just two favourites have prevailed via the last eleven renewals.

5.00: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Switched Off is Ed McMahon’s only runner on the card and with the trainer boasting a 23% strike rate at the track, the seven-year-old could score for the yard.  Four of Ed’s last six runners had finished ‘in the three’ at the time of writing, statistics which include a 5/1 winner.

1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last eighteen renewals, whilst fifteen of the eighteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.30: Richard Hannon has won the race five times in the last fifteen years and the trainer is represented this time around by Baltic Knight.  Eight favourites have scored during the last decade with the market leader coming into this year’s event on a six timer.

3.00: Three-year-olds have won four of the six renewals to date and with eight of the ten contenders representing the junior vintage, the ratio should improve further still.

3.35: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six contests.

4.10: Five of the last nine gold medallists have scored at 33/1--20/1--20/1--20/1--14/1 whilst seven of the last ten market leaders have failed to trouble the judge.  Horses carrying 9-3 or less have secured twelve of the last thirteen contests.

5.10: The last seven winners have carried 9-3 or more.

 

THURSDAY 04/10:

Bangor:

General stats: Irish trainers Paul John Gilligan had two entries involved earlier in the week at a track where Paul has saddled two of his four runners to winning effect.  

 

Warwick:

General stats: Simon Walker has been booked to ride Mahayogin for Brendan Powell in the amateur event on the card, with Simon having secured four victories from just eight rides at Warwick in recent years.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Gerard Butler had secured two gold, four silver and three bronze medallists via his last dozen runners at the time of writing and with a 25% strike rate here at Wolverhampton, anything that Gerard declared should be given a second coat of looking at as our friends from over the Irish Sea might suggest.  You might consider Gerard’s fifty points of level stake profit at the course in recent years as you contemplate that suggestion.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Saaboog was James Tate’s only potential runner earlier in the week, the trainer hoping to improve a remarkable 5/9 ratio at the course. 

 

FRIDAY 05/10:

Ascot:

General stats: I have made the point before that because of the competitive nature of racing at Ascot on the level, positive trends are difficult to come by, though Clive Brittain boasts decent profits down the years.  Clive’s meagre 7% strike rate means that you have to pick and choose his representatives carefully though, whereby Paul D’Arcy might be the man to flag up this week as his combined strike rate and LSP figures (fourteen and twenty-one respectively) make for half decent reading.

Gordon Carter event scheduled for 4.40: Just one winning favourite recorded via the last ten renewals though nine scorers were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Saaboog is also declared to run in a contest on Yarmouth’s card, should the James Tate inmate miss his potential Southwell assignment on Thursday. 

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Paul Nicholls has his runners a little further forward than is often the case at this time of year (three of his last five runners have won at the time of writing), whereby Paul’s 35% strike rate catches the eye in no uncertain terms.

 

Hexham:

General stats: John Quinn’s 7/19 trainer stats stand out from the crowd whilst Tom Scudamore has put his rare visits to Hexham in the plate to good use bearing in mind Tom’s 4/15 recent record.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda is enjoying a fine run of late season form whereby the trainer might be able to improve impressive figures already in place via his 32% strike rate which is back up by a 25 LSP reading.  Simon Dow’s ratio of 5/14 also makes for good reading. 

 

SATURDAY 06/10:

Ascot:

General stats: Favourites in three-year-old events at Ascot have a good record in general terms.  Handicap market leaders have one of the best strike rates (31%) in the country, results which have yielded over eighteen points of level stake profits.  Non handicap race market leaders boast a S/R of 38% which has also produced a small LSP figure during the last five years.

‘Cornwallis’ event scheduled for 2.00: Favourites have won two of the last eleven renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 20/1 last year.

‘Cumberland Lodge’ scheduled for 2.30: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed six of the last seven available toteplacepot positions.  Favourites have secured seven of the last twelve contests.

Six furlong Group 3 event scheduled for 3.05: All four winners have carried 9-1 to victory whilst we await the first successful market leader, the gold medallists having been returned at 16/1--16/1--11/1--6/1 thus far.

Listed ‘October Stakes’ scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals, the biggest priced winner during the period being last year‘s 16/1 gold medallist.

 

Fontwell:

General stats: David Pipe saddled an 11/1 double on the card last year though those were David’s only winners on the Saturday fixture (of the two days) during the last five years. That said, no trainer has saddled three winners during the study period! 39 favourites: 13 winners (24.0%)--10 placed--16 unplaced. Stats include three odds on favourites: 1 winner (33.3%)--2 unplaced.  The average winning price (35 winners): 4/1. 25 winners sent off in single figures (9/1 or less): 71.4%--10 winners in double figures: 28.6%

Two and a half novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Six-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals to date, whilst last year’s 6/4 favourite was the first market leader to prevail.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: ‘Champion Elect’ Richard Hughes rode a 90/1 four timer on last year’s corresponding card via three different trainers.

‘Tattersalls Millions’ event scheduled for 2.15: Although no obvious trends have emerged via four renewals, I thought you might want to take note of the trainer with most entries (Mark Johnston--4) at the penultimate stage. Last year’s winning trainer Mick Channon held two declarations which looked likely types leading up to the contest, namely Ollie Olga and Graphic Guest.

 

Redcar:

General stats: Brian Meehan’s 4/11 stats at Redcar are worth noting, especially given his five potential runners at the track on Saturday. 

‘Straight Mile Championship Final’ scheduled for 2.40: The last six winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more.  Six of the last nine winners were returned at double figure prices, whilst Kiwi Bay has won the last two renewals of the contest for trainer Michael Dods who also had Hakuna Matata entered up at the time of writing.

Listed ‘Guisborough Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled three winners in the last eight years and the trainer held three options earlier in the week.

Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last seven winners have been returned in double figures (28/1 winner twelve months ago), whilst the last ten gold medallists were burned with a minimum weight of 8-12

Five furlong mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 5.25: Four-year-olds have won four of the seven contests to date, whilst market leaders have won five renewals, boasting a level stake profit of twelve and a half points into the bargain.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: The majority of late night revellers probably enjoyed a great night out twelve months ago with the biggest priced winner emerging at just 9/1 via an eight race card, results which included four successful favourites.  Six of the eight winners were sent off at 7/2 or less.

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8 replies
  1. Chris Worrall says:

    The very first horse mentioned, Ingleby Symphony has jsut won Ayr’s opening race at 17/2.
    Well done once again, Mal.

  2. Chris says:

    You stole the words right out of my mouth Chris, well done Mal. I read the thread last week about there not being clear enough tips, but Well I Declare offers some great pointers and helps me get my betting portfolio together. Couple this with Stat of The Day & Sat TV Trends and this site has no comparison in my eyes, give me free well thought out advice/selections over expensive tipsters any day of the week.

    Keep up the great work guys.

    Thanks, Chris

  3. chris says:

    Thursdays pointers are a bit all over the place ( Warwick/Wolwerhampton ). hope it will be updated.

      • chris says:

        Thats O.K.

        But please try harder as more effort is needed. Marodima was obvious today and 3 out of 4 winners is just not good enough!

        Hope you get my Humor (lol)

        Kind regards

        Chris

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