Good Morning Everyone and welcome to your Wednesday edition of Mal Boyle's "Well, I Declare!" feature.
Today's update has all the stats for the races at Ayr, Beverley, Folkestone, Newton Abbot and Sedgefield: a busy old day! we've also repeated yesterday's advice regarding the draw bias at Epsom ahead of this weekend's Classics.
General stats: Only Peter Niven (3/13) can beat a twenty per cent strike rate of the represented trainers at Ayr at one of my least favourite racecourses in Britain.
General stats: William Haggas (5/16) and Brian Meehan (3/9) are two southern trainers to keep on the right side at the delightful Yorkshire venue.
6.35: Three-year-olds have claimed all thirteen gold medals to date whilst southern based stables have secured nine of the last eleven renewals. Seven clear favourites and one joint market leader have scored via the last eleven renewals, whilst thirteen of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.
7.30: Kevin Ryan comes into the ‘Hilary Needler’ on a hat trick with his Hamilton winner Lasilia, whilst six of the last fourteen favourites have won, with ten market leaders having claimed toteplacepot positions.
8.05: All nine winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more, whilst four clear favourites and two joint market leaders have scored to date. Eight of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame with Mark Johnston (Captivity) coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.
8.35: Eleven of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less , whilst five favourites have won during the last fourteeen years. Ten of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
9.05: All five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 to date.
General stats: It is an awfully long way for Rod Millman to send one runner to Folkestone from his Devon base, especially when the juvenile in question appears to have little chance of rewarding connections. Why then has Gladiatrix been entered for the 7.45 event?
***Gladiatrix is now a non-runner!***
General stats: Dual purpose trainer David Arbuthnot held two options on the card at the time of writing at a venue where the Surrey based trainer boasts a 40% strike rate. David’s four winners at Newton Abbot during the last five years have produced an LSP figure of nearly ten points.
General stats: Four of Martin Keighley’s last fifteen runners have won and the trainer held two options on the Sedgefield card where Martin boasts 3/7 stats in recent years.
THE EPSOM DRAW FACTOR:
The Oaks (Friday):
Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years. Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons. Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):
7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)
The Derby (Saturday):
Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored. Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.
'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):
7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)