Well I Declare, 31st July to 4th August

Well I Declare, 31st July to 4th August

Well I Declare, 31st July to 4th August

Well I Declare, 31st July to 4th August

All eyes will be on Glorious Goodwood this week and obviously Mal Boyle's piece reflects that, but there is plenty of other racing to look at and Mal has all the vital stats for the week ahead.

I make no apology for concentrating on the Glorious Goodwood meeting this week, with five days of top-notch action on the menu, notwithstanding another appearance of Frankel in Wednesday‘s Sussex Stakes.  Can you remember any horse offered at 1/20 on the previous weekend of a Group 1 event?

Last year’s Goodwood results offered the following statistics.

35 races producing a total of thirty-nine favourites:

9 winning favourites, with eight placed and twenty-two unplaced (exact science)

Frankel (winner at 8/13) was the only odds on favourite at the meeting

26 winners scored at odds of 10/1 or less, the other nine ranging between 12/1 & 22/1.

Leading trainers:

5--Richard Hannon (Evs*--5/2*--5/2*--6/1--16/1)

3--Sir Henry Cecil (8/13*--6/4*--9/2)

3--Mahmood Al Zarooni (9/2*--4/1--11/2)

2--Andrew Balding (7/1 & 11/2)

2--Sur Michael Stoute (4/1* & 4/1)

 

Richard Hannon saddled a 23/1 double on the opening day of the meeting twelve months ago, whilst Sir Michael Stoute secured a 24/1 double on the Thursday card.

Sir Michael Stoute saddled four beaten favourites , whilst two beaten market leaders were representing James Fanshawe, Richard Fahey, Richard Hannon, Barry Hills, Mark Johnston and Gary Moore.

There were nine juvenile events during the five-day meeting:

3 winning favourites--2 placed--4 unplaced

All nine winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less (7/9 sent off at maximum price of 6/1)

Richard Hannon saddled three two-year-old winners at 6/1-5/2*-Evs*

The other juvenile winners were saddled by Paul Cole (4/1*)--Andrew Balding (11/2)--Mahmood Al Zarooni (11/2)--David Wachman (6/1)--John Dunlop (7/1)--John Best (10/1)

Foaling dates of successful the two-year-olds:

4-March----3-April----1-January----1-February

Beaten favourites saddled by:

Richard Hannon, Richard Fahey, Ed Dunlop, Barry Hills, Mahmood Al Zarooni and Mark Johnston

Successful sires:

Acclamation, Azamour, Choisir, Dansili, Distorted Humor, Dylan Thomas, Mujadil, Kheleyf and Redoubt’s Choice

 

Toteplacepot dividends from 2011 (ten years average in brackets):

Tuesday: £52.00 (£117.52)

Wednesday: £504.10 (£469.76)

Thursday: £761.40 (£407.21)

Friday: £120.79 (£400.71)

Saturday: £3,221.40 (£543.14)

 

Going back further in time (eleven years during the months of July and August), the following stats have emerged:

 

Best percentages by trainers:

30%--Mahmood Al Zarooni

23%--David Arbuthnot

21%--Sir Henry Cecil

20%--Ed McMahon

20%--Sir Mark Prescott:

 

Sheer number of winners:

34--Richard Hannon

27--Mark Johnston

25--Sir Michael Stoute

17--David Nicholls

15--Saeed Bin Suroor

14--Mick Channon

14--Luca Cumani

13--John Dunlop

13--John Gosden

11--Brian Meehan

11--Jeremy Noseda

11--Amanda Perrett

 

Leading jockeys:

44--Ryan Moore

34--Richard Hughes

26--Frankie Dettori

26--Kieren Fallon

22--Jimmy Fortune

20--Johnny Murtagh

17--Seb Sanders

15--Martin Dwyer

 

Day by day analysis for all meetings this week starts here:


TUESDAY 31/07:

Goodwood:

2.00: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more whereby the bottom five horses (of eighteen) appear to be up against it from a win perspective.  Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-3 via the last nine contests.  The last thirteen favourites have all been beaten, whilst seven of the last nine market leaders have finished out of the frame.

2.35:  Market leaders of one description or another have won five of the last six renewals of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes.

3.10:  Three-year-olds have secured four of the last five renewals of the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, whereby I am slightly surprised that the Bryan Smart representative Foxtrot Romeo is the only vintage raider this time around.  Just two favourites has scored via thirteen renewals, whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

3.45: Richard Hannon has won two of the last three renewals of the ‘Molecomb’ and it’s worth noting that Richard saddled three of the nine two-year-old winners at the ‘Glorious Goodwood’ meeting last year.  Six favourites have won during the last fifteen years (level stake profit of £549.23 to one hundred pound stakes), whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.15: Nine of the last twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 4/1 or less (four winning favourites), though a 50/1 winner in 2004 was only cheered on by the layers.

4.50: David Nicholls has saddled two winners and four placed horses in this event in the last nine years and the popular trainer saddles Snow Bay with each way claims on this occasion.  It should be remembered that only three trainers have bettered Dandy’s total of seventeen winners at this meeting during the last eleven years.  Seven of the last eight winners have carried 9-4 or more to victory, whilst Jacob Cats is a three-year-old to respect, especially as vintage representatives have won three of the last six contests.  Ten of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners).

5.25: The last eight renewals have produced just one successful favourite during which time, four gold medallists were returned at odds ranging between 14/1 & 28/1.  Top weight Fitz Flyer and the 2010 winner Hamoody represent David Nicholls who has secured three renewals during the last decade.

 

Beverley:

General stats: Mel Brittain saddled a 28/1 double on last year’s card and Mel’s only runner at the meeting this year is Gosforth Park (5.10).  Mel saddled last year’s 10/1 winner in the race for good measure.

2.25: Four of the last seven renewals of this opening event have been secured by market leaders, whilst seven of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.55:  Only one (joint) favourite has obliged since 2004 albeit seven of the last nine winners have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

3.30: Nine of the last ten winners scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include two successful market leaders, whilst five-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests.

4.05: Although only two favourites have prevailed via seven renewals, bookmaker's have not had things going all their own way as all seven gold medallists were returned at 7/1 or less.  Four-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, whilst the same ratio is in evidence regarding horses carrying a minimum weight of 9-7.

4.35: Five market leaders have won during the last nine years, whilst seven of the twelve favourites during the period claimed toteplacepot positions.

5.10: Four successive market leaders had obliged before last year's favourite secured the bronze medal.

5.40: Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged, albeit seven of the relevant gold medallists were sent off at a maximum price of 8/1.  Seven of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-5.

 

Ayr:

General stats: This is an additional venue which was added to Tuesday’s fayre because the recent abandoned meetings.

 

Perth:

General stats: The world and his dog know the trainers to focus on at Perth by now, whereas Tom O’Brien’s record in the plate is relatively unknown by comparison.  Tom has produced a level stake profit of twenty-four points via a 7/29 ratio during the last five years. 

 

Worcester:

General stats: It is worth repeating last week’s comment regarding Rachel Green who boasts a stunning a 53% strike rate via 10/19 figures at Worcester to date.

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WEDNESDAY 01/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Horses which gained their latest victory at Goodwood, Newmarket (July) and Ascot head the sector where we examine which tracks serve best for the ‘Glorious Goodwood’ meeting.

2.00: Four-year-olds have won six of the last thirteen renewals of this Goodwood Stakes event, notwithstanding the narrow ‘three parts’ defeat of my fancy Seaside Sizzler in last year’s contest at 14/1.  Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

2.35: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around, represented by his Group 2 Superlative Stakes winner (and ‘Coventry’ runner up) Olympic Glory.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed, whilst ten market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.10: The last four favourites of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes have obliged and in defending champion Frankel this time around, we are witnessing one of the hottest favourites ever to tackle a contest at the top level of the sport.  Three-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals but this year’s lone vintage raider Gabrial would surely have to start now to have any chance in receipt of just seven pounds from what might emerge as the greatest horse we have ever seen.  I have seen most of the greats in the flesh thankfully, include Brigadier Gerard, Nijinsky and Dancing Brave to name but three, but if Frankel were to remain undefeated (hopefully contesting a Group 1 ten furlong event before his retirement), the Galileo colt could rewrite the history books.  In a nutshell, Aidan O’Brien in not contesting the race which is about all you need to know.  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst twelve of the fifteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.45: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst we still await the first winning favourite since the turn of the Millennium, during which time horses have scored at odds ranging between 5/1 & 14/1, with five of those gold medallists returned in double figures.

4.20: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite (level stake profit of £687.72 to one hundred pound stakes) have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Twelve of the eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.55: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, whilst vintage representatives landed a 1-2-3 result in the contest twelve months ago at odds of 14/1-7/1-22/1 via 59% of the total number of runners.  Five favourites have obliged during the last decade, whilst six of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

Leicester:

General stats: Geoff Harker secured a 16/1 double at last year’s corresponding meeting.

 

Redcar:

General stats: James Given bypassed the Goodwood meeting to decent effect by saddling a 17/2 double at Redcar twelve months ago. 

 

Perth:

General stats: Perth’s toteplacepot dividend last year of £314.90 was a decent reward given that regular readers of the form at this racecourse can often determine the right horses to include in their permutations. 

 

THURSDAY 02/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute secured a 24/1 double on the card on the Thursday of the meeting last year.

Ten furlong three-year-old handicap scheduled for 2.15: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whilst Mark Johnston is looking for his fifth winner in the race in the last fourteen years.  John Gosden has won three of the last nine contests, whilst favourites have won six of the last eleven renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting. Ten of the last fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions.

‘Richmond Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.45: Richard Hannon has secured the last four renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and with four penultimate stage entries, Richard was obviously intent on saddling another winner.  Five winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst nine of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years.

‘Goodwood Cup’ scheduled for 3.15: Favourites have won six of the last eight contests, whilst nine of the last 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Fourteen furlong Group 3 ‘Lillie Langtry’ event scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer whilst three of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner) via nine renewals.

Seven furlong juvenile (‘New Ham‘) event scheduled for 4.20: Golden Causeway is my speculative juvenile to look out for in the two-year-old division at ‘Glorious‘ Goodwood this year.  I made the point twelve months ago that Amber Silk could be backed at an each way price and the Barry Hills raider finished second at 20/1.  Barry had won a few renewals shortly before his retirement and it’s worth noting that Charlie Hills has, without question, waited for this event to saddle his Giant’s Causeway filly.  Charlie named the January foal as one to watch in a stable tour earlier in the year. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years.  Nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 seven furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.55: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more to victory. No favourite has prevailed during the study period (fourteen years), whilst seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Eleven furlong Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 5.25: We still await the first successful favourite following seven renewals, four of the winners having been returned at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Medicoe (scheduled to run in the 6.55 juvenile event) holds three entries this week but if lining up here, Sir Mark Prescott’s raider will be hoping to improve the 3/8 tally for the stable in two-year-old event at Epsom in recent years.  Mark’s 42% strike rate across the board makes for great reading, though Medicoe is Mark’s only potential runner on the card. 


Ffos Las:

General stats: Strategic Heights has been declared for the scheduled 8.50 event by trainer Liam McAteer who has saddled three of his six runners at the venue to winning effect.


Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor (37% strike rate) and Michael Appleby (36%) potentially head the represented trainers at Nottingham on Wednesday. 

Stratford:

General stats: Kielan Woods is already booked aboard Gougane (4.30), the jockey having ridden five of his eleven mounts to winning effect at Stratford! A level stake profit of thirty-three points adds icing on the cake.

 

FRIDAY 03/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Sires that lead the way at the five-day meeting in recent years include Galileo, Charnwood Forest, Orpen, Prince Sabo, Speightstown, Dalakhani, Distant View and Dansero.

Group 3 twelve furlong event scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals, whilst securing eleven of the last eighteen available toteplacepot positions.

Five favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst nine of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Group 3 ‘Thoroughbred Stakes’ over a mile due to be contested at 2.35: I suggested that course winner Neebras had this race at his mercy according to the official figures twelve months ago and Mahmood Al Zarooni‘s raider duly did the business at 4/1.  At the time of writing, Richard Hannon’s pair Trumpet Major and Coup De Ville stood out from the crowd alongside John Gosden’s Gregorian.  That said, twenty-three runners stood their ground at the penultimate stage.  Nine of the last seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

One mile ‘Heritage Handicap’ scheduled for 3.10: Mark Johnston has saddled the last two winners of the contest when represented and the trainer held five options at the penultimate stage.  Four-year-olds have won five renewals during the last decade, whilst six of the last seven winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-3. Two favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, whilst seven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  Twelve of the last sixteen winners last ran at either Ascot, Newmarket or Sandown.

Group 2 ‘King George’ event scheduled for 3.45: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last eight renewals.  Four favourites have scored during the last fifteen years, whilst eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Nursery event scheduled for 4.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners of this two-year-old handicap event carried weights of 9-2 or less. Four clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst ten of the last eighteen ‘jollies’ have reached the frame.

‘Oak Tree Stakes’ scheduled for 4.50: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last 15 renewals, though four-year-olds come to the party on a hat trick this time around.  Five favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst nine of the fifteen market leaders throughout the study period claimed toteplacepot positions.

Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 5.25 over the minimum trip: Only one favourite has obliged during the last decade during which time, seven gold medallists were burdened with 8-8 or less.

 

Bath:

General stats: John Mackie has saddled two of his five runners at Bath to success during the study period.  John held just two entries for the entire week at the time of writing, with his recent Southwell winner Layla’s Boy due to contest the scheduled 7.40 event. 

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Wild Sauce (8.20) is one of Bryan Smart’s more consistent inmates and the Exceed And Excel filly was Bryan’s only potential runner on the card on Friday, where the trainer enjoys a 24% strike rate which is backed by an LSP figure of forty-six points. 

 

Newmarket:

General stats: The pick of the potentially represented trainers on Friday from a ‘coupled’ perspective is Jeremy Noseda, given his 22% strike rate which is backed up by an LSP figure of nine points. 

 

Thirsk:

General stats: Paul Cole is up and running as far as the turf season is concerned and his 25% strike rate here at Thirsk makes for positive reading, as does the 3/8 ratio of John Gosden. 

 

Bangor:

General stats: Donald McCain sent his supporters home happy at Bangor last year having secured a 692/1 treble at the meeting.

 

SATURDAY 04/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Jockey Paul Hanagan will be hoping to improve upon his ratio of 5/113 at Glorious Goodwood thus far.

Six furlong Class 2 handicap due to be contested at 2.05: David Nicholls has snared six of the 13 renewals thus far and his 20/1 placed raider twelve months ago was highlighted in despatches.  Just two of the last 10 favourites have finished in the frame (no winners) since four consecutive market leaders obliged between 2000 and 2003.

Mile and three-quarter Class 2 handicap scheduled for 2.40: Four and five year-olds have won eight of the last nine renewals between them with the older statesmen leading 5-3 in the process.  The same numbers have carried 9-4 or more to victory.  Seven of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners) in as many years.

‘Nassau Stakes’ scheduled for 3.15: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, whilst Sir Henry Cecil has secured the last three contests via his wonderful mare Midday.  Henry was due to be represented this year by Timepiece at the time of writing.

Favourites have won nine of the last 15 renewals of this Nassau Stakes (including six of the last nine) whilst market leaders have secured thirteen toteplacepot positions during the study period.  The biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 11/2.

‘Stewards Cup’ due to be contested at 3.55: Twelve of the last sixteen winners have contested Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes en route to lifting this prize, whist thirteen winners during the period hailed from the four and five-year-old ranks.  Roger Charlton and David Nicholls have each saddled three winners during the study period.  Nine of the thirteen favourites during the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions which is a phenomenal record in such a competitive event.  Those stats include three successful favourites which equates to market leaders having produced a level stake profit of nine and a half points during the last ten years.

Seven furlong juvenile maiden scheduled for 4.30: Richard Hannon has won four of the last nine renewals, statistics which include three of the last five contests. Six of the last fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, whilst three market leaders have won, though the last ten ‘jollies’ have all been beaten.

Six furlong Nursery event due to be contested at 5.05: Stand N Applaud was the only entry from the David Nicholls yard at the five-day stage, given that Dandy has saddled four of the last six winners of this contest, whilst not being represented in the race last year!  Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years, whilst ten of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

Doncaster:

General stats: This is invariably the time of year when Luca Cumani reaches top gear and his strike rate of 23% at Doncaster is worth noting, especially backed up by Luca’s LSP figure of nearly seventeen points.

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Alan Swinbank saddled a 39/1 double here at Hamilton twelve months ago whilst also landing a 9/4 winner at Newmarket when completing a 129/1 treble on the day.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Jim Crowley rode four winners at Lingfield on Monday and Jim’s mounts on the all-weather tracks are invariably worth a second glance.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Three of the twelve runners that George Baker has saddled at the venue have won, producing a level stake profit of eight points thus far.

 

Thirsk:

General stats: Trainers with very good LSP figures at Thirsk with potential runners on Saturday include Alan McCabe (sixty-eight points) and Mark Brisbourne (fifty-three).

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: General stats: Donald McCain held two entries at the time of writing which is worth noting, especially as four of Donald’s seven runners have won at this venue.

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2 replies
  1. billy fieseler says:

    mal. what can i say?your a landaman star.keep up your good work.billy f.

  2. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Great name Billy (!)…..thanks for your kind comments and hey, keep backing the winners!

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