This Thursday edition of Well, I Declare gives you the lowdown on today's action from Ayr, Brighton, Newcastle, Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby, as well as another chance to study the draw stats for the Epsom Classic meeting.
General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (5/12) and Jeremy Noseda (2/2) are southern trainers to watch out for at Ayr, both trainers having options at the track on Thursday at the time of writing.
General stats: Nine of Jeremy Noseda’s eleven recent winners at Brighton have hailed from his 3YO ranks via just eighteen runners. Roger Charlton (7/13) and William Haggas (8/22) are other trainers to keep on the right side along with Sir Mark Prescott. Mahmood Al Zarooni’s juveniles are well worth siding with at Brighton.
General stats: Ed Dunlop (5/10) and Rae Guest (5/13) are trainers to respect at Gosforth Park, whilst this is yet another track where William Haggas representatives more than ‘hold their own‘.
General stats: Ryan Moore has ridden more horses than any of the other potentially represented riders at Sandown on Thursday and yet Ryan boasts the best (21%) strike rate among the relevant pilots. Such statistics are a rarity within the sport of kings.
Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 6.15: All twelve win and place positions have been claimed by horses carrying 8-11 or more, whilst the four favourites thus far have snared three gold and one bronze medal.
National Stakes scheduled for 6.45: Richard Hannon has saddled three of the last five winners whilst four of the last fourteen favourites have won with six market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Henry II event scheduled for 7.20: Eight of the last sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions though just one market leader has prevailed and that gold medallist scored fourteen years ago!
Brigadier Gerard contest due to be sent off at 7.55: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ of late, securing twelve of the last fifteen renewals between them. Four-year-olds lead the way with nine victories during the extended study period. Four of the last thirteen favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst seven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
Listed ‘Heron Stakes’ scheduled for 8.25: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this event during the last fifteen years. Twelve of the last seventeen market leaders have finished in the money. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last nine winners and the trainer held just one option at the penultimate stage which was Tales Of Grimm, with Ryan Moore already ’jocked aboard’.
Class 3 one mile handicap scheduled for 8.55: Four-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last seventeen gold medals (including six of the last nine) in the finale. Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst ten of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Six of the last eight favourites have claimed three gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of those beaten market leaders.
General stats: Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate) heads the trainer stats as you might presume, but Andrew Tinkler’s haul of six winners form just twenty assignments also makes for interesting reading, especially as Andrew had just one booked ride at the time of writing, namely I’m Fraam Goven.
General stats: Richard Johnson does not visit these parts too often but his 11/25 stats should make you respect the chance of any horse Richard rides at Wetherby.
THE EPSOM DRAW FACTOR:
The Oaks (Friday):
Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years. Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons. Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):
7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)
The Derby (Saturday):
Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored. Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.
'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):
7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)