Well, I Declare! 3rd to 7th July 2012

Well I Declare, 3rd to 7th July 2012

Well, I Declare! 3rd to 7th July 2012

Well, I Declare! 3rd to 7th July 2012

This week‘s racing calendar resembles that of seven days ago whereby I am focusing on the four venues which have extended meetings from Wednesday onwards.  Beverley, Perth and Sandown all stage two-day meetings, whilst Haydock’s three day extravaganza starts on Thursday.  The stats offered are based on last year’s results unless stated.

 

TUESDAY 3/7:

Brighton:

General stats: Mark Johnston saddles three horses at the track on Tuesday boasting a 31% strike rate in recent seasons. 

2.15 & 2.45: (Two divisions of the opening event on the card): Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame, both as winners of their respective races via three contests to date.

3.15: Five of the seven winners thus far have carried a minimum of 9-2, whilst six of the nine favourites (via seven renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

3.45: Three-year-olds have won all six contests thus far and with vintage representatives 8/13 to win this before the form book is taken into account, the trend will surely be extended.  Sir Michael Stoute saddled a couple of three-year-old winners on Sunday and boasting a 27% strike rate with his vintage raiders during the month of July last year, Scottish Vespers is taken to lift this prize.  Three of the five favourites (winners priced at 2/7, 8/11 and 11/10) have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

4.45: Three and four-year-olds have won the last six contests between them (juniors lead 4-2) whilst seven of the eight winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more.  Seven of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).  The biggest priced recorded winner to date was sent off at just 15/2 back in 2005.

5.45: Seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite scored, whilst five and six-year-olds have won seven of the last nine contests (six-year-olds lead 4-3).

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (46% record at Hamilton in the last five years via 11/24 stats) saddles just one runner at the track which is his beaten favourite Solar View in the 4.30 contest.  Tom Tate’s runners have to be respected at Hamilton as well, the trainer having saddled three of his eight inmates to winning effect in recent years.

3.00: Four of the five favourites have won this contest, the biggest priced winner scoring at just 9/4 to date.

3.30: Three of the five favourites have won this event with another of the market leaders having been beaten a short head twelve months ago.

4.30: Four of Sir Mark Prescott's last eight runners have won whereby support for Solar View would be an obvious boost for his chance in a weak event.

5.00: Five and six-year-olds have both secured four victories in this event during the last decade, with six-year-olds coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.  TONGALOOMA is the only six-year-old in the line up, whilst BESTY is the lone five-year-old in the contest.

5.30: We still await the first successful favourite following seven renewals, five of which have been secured by five-year-olds who come to the party on a hat trick.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Three of Saeed Bin Suroor’s last eight runners had won at the time of writing whereby his 33% strike rate via forty-nine winners at the Sunbury venue in the last five years could be improved upon with the stable starting to come into form. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: Comingthrotherye (8.40) is set to be ridden by Kielan Woods who has ridden five winners at Stratford from just eleven rides.  Kielan has ridden twenty-two of his thirty winners to date for Charlie Longsdon who trains Comingthrotherye for good measure. 

 

WEDNESDAY 4/7:

Catterick:

General stats: I try not to latch onto negative stats in this column though no figures stand out from the crowd relating to Wednesday’s potentially represented trainers from a positive perspective.  The following trainers have failed to saddle a winner at the venue from the relevant number of runners in brackets in recent years: Ben Haslam (27), Andrew Crook (26), Lawrence Mullaney (25) and Brian Roth well (20).

 

Chepstow:

General stats: Andrew Balding boasts a 28% strike rate here at Chepstow in the last five years, a ratio which has produced over thirty-one points of level stake profits.  Andrew saddled three winners from just six runners on Sunday (alongside subsequent successes) whereby the trainer comes to the meeting in good form.

 

Kempton:

General stats: ‘Frankie’ reminded us that there is life in the young pup/old dog yet as his 29% strike rate here during the last five years confirms.

7.25: Six of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via six renewals, statistics which include two successful market leaders.  Richard Hannon has saddled two of the last four winners having also saddled silver and bronze medallists in the two contests.

8.00: Four-year-olds have won three of the last five contests, vintage representatives having filled all three win and place positions twelve months ago.  Four of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful favourites. All six winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less.

9.05: Four-year-olds lead the three-year-olds 4-2 via just the six renewals of Kempton's finale to date. The lead is stretched to 9-5 from a win and place perspective.

 

Perth:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

12 races:

Favourite details: 5 winners--2 placed--5 unplaced

Three of the four odds on favourites prevailed

All twelve winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less

Gordon Elliott secured three winners with Peter Bowen and David Pipe saddling two apiece

Both Gordon Elliott (5/1) and Peter Bowen (12/1) landed doubles on Wednesday

On the other side of the coin, Gordon Elliott saddled four beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Wednesday: £13.10 (average dividend over the last nine years: £289.10)

Thursday: £128.60 (average dividend over the last eight years: £42.13)

 

Worcester:

General stats: Rebecca Curtis (10/33) matches the strike rate of Paul Nicholls (30% via a ratio of 22/74) here at Worcester which is a record to be proud of. 

 

THURSDAY 5/7:

Epsom:

General stats: Jonathan Portman (3/6) and Sir Mark Prescott (10/23) boast really impressive stats at one of the most difficult venues to snare winners throughout the UK. 

Class 5 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 6.20: Only one of the five favourites has finished in the money to date which was the successful 3/1 market leader back in 2006.  All five winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less however.

Juvenile event scheduled for 6.35: Four favourites have prevailed during the last six years during which time, both Richard Hannon and Mick Channon have saddled two winners.

Class 3 all aged handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 7.10: Although all eight winners during the last decade have been recorded at odds of 9/1 or less, only one (4/6) favourite has prevailed.  Four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period whilst seven gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 9-2.  David Nicholls has saddled two of the last six winners and his only option at the five-day stage was Tax Free.

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7.45: Space Station has won the last two renewals of this contest and having been declared as a four-time winner under fast and soft conditions, Simon Dow's local raider should figure prominently again. It's also worth noting that Simon saddled the 2005 winner of the race at odds of 16/1.  Five of the last six winners have carried 9-2 or more, whilst two of the last three favourites prevailed.  Four of the ten favourites (via eight renewals during the last decade) finished in the frame.

8.50: Four of the five favourites in the finale have finished in the money, statistics which include three successful market leaders.  Two of those victorious favourites (both sent off at odds of 6/5) represented Mark Johnston and the northern based trainer held five options at the penultimate entry stage.

 

Haydock:

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

20 races

Favourite details (23 market leaders): 2 winners--10 placed--11 unplaced

All three odds on favourites were beaten at 30/100, 8/11 and 10/11

16 of the 20 winners were returned at 10/1 or less

Other gold medallists scored at 11/1-12/1-14/1-14/1

Thursday: John Dunlop secured a 25/1 double on the day

Just two other trainers saddled two winners during the three days, namely Roger Varian and Willie Haggas

Ruth Carr was the only trainer to saddle two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Thursday: £1059.40 (average dividend over the last ten years: £300.10)

Friday: £133.00 (average dividend over the last nine years: £371.27)

Saturday: £221.00 (average dividend over the last nine years: £817.61)

 

Newbury:

General stats: It remains to be seen if Mickael Barzalona rides here or at Haydock where the jockey was also booked for one ride at the time of writing.  If riding at Newbury however, it’s worth noting Mickael’s 3/7 ratio thus far. 

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Ian Williams has quietly produced decent 4/13 figures here at Yarmouth in recent times, though Roger Varian has quickly taken up the positive gauntlet left by Michael Jarvis at the track.

 

Perth:

General stats: Tim Vaughan can be added to the positive Gordon Elliott and Nigel Twiston-Davies trainers list north of the border.

 

FRIDAY 6/7:

Beverley:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

14 races:

Favourite details (17 market leaders): 2 winners--5 placed--10 unplaced

The only odds on favourite was beaten at odds of 1/4

All fourteen winners were returned at 10/1 or less

The only trainers to saddle two winners were Mark Johnston and Willie Haggas, the latter named handler having secured a 22/1 double on Saturday.

Richard Fahey and Ollie Pears both saddled three beaten favourites

On the Friday of the two-day fixture, all seven favourites finished out of the frame

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £1921.40 (average dividend over the last ten years: £557.07)

Saturday: £31.40 (average dividend over the last ten years: £537.67)

 

Doncaster:

General stats: We went for a touch with Ironically at Doncaster via David Lanigan’s impressive 6/13 stats at Doncaster in recent times though unfortunately, the horse was withdrawn because of softening conditions.  Ironically was just touched off at odds of 11/1 at Windsor on Monday night. Let’s hope we have better luck with Dutch Master (scheduled to contest the 3.35 event) this time around.

 

Haydock:

General stats: William Jarvis is the ‘dark horse’ at Haydock given his 4/11 figures in recent times.  Roger Varian (37%) and William Haggas (31%) have more predictable positive strike rates. John Holt (4/10) is another trainer who should be kept on the right side.

Class 5 all aged five furlong handicap scheduled for 6.45: Two of the five favourites (via four renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include a 5/2 winner.  Four-year-olds have won three of the contests thus far, vintage representatives having secured five of the eleven available toteplacepot positions to date.

All aged maiden event over one mile scheduled for 8.45: Seven of the eight winners to date were returned at odds of just 3/1 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites.  William Haggas has saddled three of the last six winners and his Mr Greeley newcomer Sir Palomides was William’s only option at the time of writing.  Related to our 2000 Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand (winner of the only three races he contested), Sir Palomides would have to be of interest if given the green light to run by the trainer.

 

Sandown:

Stats from the two-day meeting last year:

13 races:

Favourite details (14 market leaders): 3 winners--5 placed--6 unplaced

Both odds on favourites obliged at odds of 4/6

12 of the 13 winners were returned at 10/1 or less (other winner returned at 16/1)

Andrew Balding saddled a 500/1 treble on the Saturday of the two-day fixture

Jeremy Noseda secured a 22/1 double on the opening day, whilst Sir Michael Stoute secured two victories during the course of the meeting (5/1 & 9/2)

Luca Cumani saddled two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Friday: £151.40 (average dividend over the last ten years: £357.63)

Saturday: £100.20 (average dividend over the last ten years: £247.83)

 

Warwick:

General stats: Barry McHugh was due to ride Best Times in the scheduled 4.20 event, the jockey having ridden three of his five mounts at Warwick to winning effect thus far.  Best Times also held an engagement at Haydock on Thursday however whereby you should check your race cards this week.

 

SATURDAY 7/7:

Beverley:

General stats: David Lanigan was mentioned in dispatches earlier in the analysis and his record of 6/11 here at Beverley also makes for interesting reading.

 

Carlisle:

General stats: James Turner is an unfamiliar name to keep in your black book, especially here at Carlisle where the trainer has saddled two of just five runners to winning effect.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Look at Friday’s comments which could be relevant to Saturday’s meeting, whilst throwing in the fact that Charlie Hills (25% strike rate) has done well at Haydock during his first year of training.

Mile and a half 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.20: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals of this opening event.  Only one of the last five market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position, a 2/5 favourite being listed among the casualties.

Lancashire Oaks scheduled for 2.55: Although eight winners of the Lancashire Oaks during the last decade were returned at odds of 13/2 or less, only two favourites have scored.  John Gosden has saddled three of the last nine winners and only his potential representative Great Heavens was 'jocked up' (Robert Havlin) on Tuesday morning.

The Old Newton Cup scheduled for 3.25: Four-year-olds have won seven renewals of the Old Newton Cup during the last decade, whilst just two market leaders have obliged during the study period.  Luca Cumani held two options earlier in the week with the trainer having saddled three of the last eight winners of this Class 2 event.

Two-year-old handicap event scheduled for 4.00: Happy days are here again as the Nursery season has arrived though unfortunately this is a new race on the racing calendar, whereby we will have to wait for a contest with trends in place.  Watch this (Nursery) space.  If it is of any help to you, Richard Hannon was responsible for three of the sixteen five-day declarations, two of which figured in the top three ratings by the assessor, though Rod Millman’s Indesatchel colt Yes Two took pride of place at the top of the handicap off a mark of eighty-five at the time of writing.

Six furlong conditions event scheduled for 5.10: Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick having secured three of the last five renewals, whilst three favourites have won via nine contests during the last decade. Eight of the gold medallists were returned at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst just one of the last five market leaders has finished in the money.

 

Leicester:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has long since ruled the Leicester roost as his recent 41% strike rate confirms.  Keep any Gary Moore runners on the right side as well given Gary’s 5/16 ratio. 

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Michael Appleby’s 5/16 ratio catch the eye as do the fifty-four level stake profits of Roy Bowring down the years at Nottingham.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Clive Cox is the man for the LSP readers among you having produced a positive figure of thirty-three points at the Esher venue in recent years.  Sir Mark Prescott (36% strike rate) looked set to have representatives at the course later in the week via Monday’s penultimate stage declarations.

‘Coral Eclipse’ scheduled for 3.45: Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winners during the last decade and his four representatives on Monday were headed up last year’s half length winner So You Think who was an odds on chance at the time of writing.  Favourites have won the last three renewals before which time, six renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader having been registered.  Eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.

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