Well I Declare: 4th September

Well I Declare: 4th to 8th September

Well I Declare: 4th September

Well I Declare: 4th September

The truly mad world of Mal Boyle continued apace last week despite having taken ’er indoors away for a short break.

I returned to find new tenants in the top flat (dad and daughter) joined by their five foot pet python who apparently goes for ‘walkies’ up the road when the owner fancies a stroll.

This reptile is soon to be joined by a fifteen foot version and no, I will not be leaving my windows open of a night even if an ‘Indian summer’ is in the offing, a reference I could have improved upon given enough time!

I had hoped that Slitherin was a term that would have disappeared along with Harry Potter and his chums this summer though not for the first time, I am sadly wide of the mark again.

I hope that your luck has not taken a similar nose dive while I have been away and that my revamped focus on animals in the broadest sense brings all of us plenty of winners.

Do you hear a hissing noise…….?

Keep squeezing the life out of the layers!


TUESDAY 04/09:

Goodwood:

General stats: Mark Johnston saddles two runners on the card , namely Steeler (4.05) and Hurricane Higgins (4.40) and although Mark’s 14% strike rate at Goodwood is nothing to write home about, his number of winners in the last five years (thirty) and his LSP figure of sixty five points catch the eye.

2.20: Jeremy Noseda saddled two winners from just four runners on Saturday and his first subsequent raider Claude Monet runs in this event, which is Jeremy’s only entry on Tuesday.   Roger Varian is (surprisingly) still looking to land his first winner at Goodwood and his seventeenth representative AFRAAH at the track is considered the main danger to the selection.  Three favourites have won during the last seven years, whilst nine of the last ten winners during the decade scored at odds of 6/1 or less.  Eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

2.55 & 5.50 (two divisions): Favourites come into the race on a hat trick, whilst John Gosden held two entries at the weekend in which he has saddled gold and bronze medallists via just three contests to date. John saddles Cushion in the first heat and Solace in the 5.50 event.  Three renewals have produced two gold and once bronze medal via the relevant market leaders thus far.

3.30: Last year’s 5/2 (Richard Hannon trained) favourite missed out on a toteplacepot position when finishing third in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might want to know the term used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.

4.05: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame via three renewals, statistics which include one (5/6) winner.

 

Leicester:

General stats: Amazing Amorey (2.30) represents trainer David Barron who boasts a 40% strike rate (via ten runners) at Leicester in recent years.  David’s eight points of level stake profits during the period puts icing on the cake.

3.05: Last year's 9/2 joint favourites dominated the finish following the complete demise of the inaugural 7/4 market leader which finished nearer last than first.  It is little wonder that Richard Hannon has declared SPANISH ART for this event having saddled the runner up in each of the previous two renewals.

3.40: The same stats apply for the previous race as this is the second division of the contest. Richard Hannon has declared his Amadeus Wolf filly PERFECT POSE which is an interesting move given the trainer's lack of stock from the sire to date.

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Stormy Morning (4.25) represents Philip Kirby who boasts a 33% strike rate (6/18) in Edinburgh which has helped to produce impressive level stake profits of forty four points into the bargain!

 

WEDNESDAY 05/09:

Bath:

General stats: Roger Varian has saddled two winners from just five runners at Bath to date and the trainer held two options at the weekend. Urban Daydream (2.20) is now his only runner at Bath on Wednesday.

2.20: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite was beaten half a length by an 18/1 chance, albeit the William Haggas raider secured a toteplacepot position despite the surprise defeat.  If there is a hot favourite on Tuesday morning, you might like to take note of the name of last year’s winner which was…History Repeating!

2.50: Two market leaders have prevailed thus far via six renewals.  Four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.50: Five of the six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Four renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since the first two favourites of this event prevailed.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Suffolk based trainer Dave Morris potentially saddles two runners on the card and his 21% strike rate at Kempton (four winners) have yielded over fifty two points of level stake profits.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Two winners from just five mounts is the current ratio boasted by Kieren Fallon at Lingfield. On the training front, runners saddled by Alan Jarvis are worth a second look given his 30% strike rate which has helped to produce an LSP figure of thirty four points.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Richard Woolacott (2/3), Jim Best (8/22) and Rebecca Curtis (15/47) are just three trainers who will be fighting the closure of Hereford racecourse if their ratios at the track are anything to go by.

 

THURSDAY 06/09:

Haydock:

General stats: Paul D’Arcy (3/5) and William Jarvis (4/11) are alternative trainers to consider if you want to look beyond Roger Varian’s impressive 34% strike rate via figures of 12/35 since taking over the license from Michael Jarvis not so long ago.

Amateur rider event scheduled for 5.10: Favourites have secured a medal of each colour via just the three renewals thus far.  This is another meeting during this ‘silly season’ (after a Bank Holiday wreaks havoc on the sport from a ‘corresponding fixture’ perspective).

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Whilst the Sir Henry Cecil media bandwagon is dominated by Frankel (was there ever any doubt that the champion would run in the relevant event at Ascot next?), it’s as well to focus on Henry’s record at ’lesser venues’ like here at Salisbury where the trainer boasts a 30% strike rate in recent years.

Novice event for juveniles scheduled for 2.10: Six of the last nine favourites have obliged, the other gold medallists having been sent off at 7/4, 9/4 & 6/1.  Richard Hannon is the only trainer to have saddled two recent winners and the trainer was responsible for four of the sixteen five-day declarations last weekend.

Juvenile maiden event for fillies due to be contested at 2.40: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via the last eighteen renewals (many of which were spilt via divisions) whilst three of the last nine contests have been snared by horses starting at 66/1 and 33/1 (twice).  Fifteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

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Listed juvenile event for fillies over six furlongs scheduled for 3.15: Five favourites have won in the last fourteen years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was a 10/1 chance.  Ten of the gold medallists have won at 7/2 or less, whilst eight of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Seven furlong Class 2 handicap scheduled for fillies/mares at 3.45: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals of this event, whilst eleven of the last thirteen gold medallists have carried weights of 9-2 or less.  Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst eleven of the eighteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Fourteen furlong conditions event set for 4.20: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last nine renewals.  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last six years, the other gold medallists having been returned at 7/1 and 4/1 for good measure.  Indeed, the biggest priced winners during the last decade were two 4/1 scorers.

Apprentice event scheduled for 5.20: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the six renewals to date during the which time, two favourites have prevailed.  Three and four-year-old representatives have secured six win and place positions apiece from just eighteen opportunities.

 

Kempton:

General stats: There is little to add to what seems like a weekly comment that Frankie Dettori and Saeed Bin Suroor continue to dominate the sport at the Sunbury circuit.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Jason Maguire’s 26% strike rate owes much to the training talent of Donald McCain.  Meanwhile, any runners hailing from Lawney Hill’s stable should be kept on the right side given her 3/3 ratio at Sedgefield!

 

FRIDAY 07/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Well publicised trainers have superior figures to offer than Joseph Tuite, though Joseph’s 6/21 return in recent years is worth a mention, especially as over thirteen points of level stake profits have been realised during the period. 

 

Chepstow:

General stats: Two of the last seven runners saddled by John Spearing had won at the time of writing and John’s 29% record at Chepstow catches the eye.  The positive statistics include nearly ten points of level stake profits during the period.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Richard Kingscote’s mounts have realised seventy points of level stake profits at Haydock in the last five years via a strike rate 26% (twenty one winners). 

2.30: Both favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date via gold and bronze medals.

3.35: Both favourites finished out of the money in the two divisions of last year’s inaugural event.

The inaugural 4.45 & 5.15 races last year were won by John Gosden trained 7/2 favourites.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ralph Beckett (sixty six) and James Fanshawe (forty four) have both produced an abundance of level stake profits in recent years, albeit all trainers are generally overshadowed by the exploits of Saeed Bin Suroor (56 winners via a 34% ratio) at the Sunbury circuit. 

 

SATURDAY 08/08:

Ascot:

General stats: It is very difficult to achieve good figures at Ascot given the competitive nature of the sport at the royal venue.  James Fanshawe has achieved quite a feat in recent times by securing a 20% strike rate (via ten winners) which is backed up by twenty five points of level stake profits. 

 

Haydock:

General stats: Favourites in the non handicap sector have performed well (as is usually the case) in two and three year-old events at Haydock this year.  47% of the juvenile events have been won by market leaders, whilst favourites have secured 53% of three-year-old non handicap contests.

Group 1 six furlong Sprint Cup (3.25)--Statistics for the potential 18 runners at the time of writing:

Bated Breath: Haydock record: 3/4----Group 1 record: 0/8

Confessional: Haydock record: 1/6----Group 1 record: 0/1

Dandy Boy: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/2

Elusivity: Haydock record: 0/4----Group 1 record: 0/0

Genki: Haydock record: 1/4----Group 1 record: 0/7

Gordon Lord Byron: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/0

Hawkeyethenoo: Haydock record: 0/1----Group 1 record: 0/1

Hitchens: Haydock record: 1/2----Group 1 record: 0/5

Kingsgate Native: Haydock record: 1/4----Group 1 record: 2/17

Majestic Myles: Haydock record: 0/2----Group 1 record: 0/0

Mayson: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 1/1

Society Rock: Haydock record: 0/2----Group 1 record: 1/8

Soul: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/3

Strong Suit: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/6

Es Que Love: Haydock record: 0/1----Group 1 record: 0/1

Reply: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/4

Ortensia: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 3/16

Wizz Kid: Haydock record: 0/0----Group 1 record: 0/4

Three favourites have won during the last six years, though six of the ten winners in the last decade have been returned in double figures.  Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-3 over the last ten years. Five of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.


Other races at Haydock on Saturday:

Listed juvenile event over one mile scheduled for 1.45: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one successful (even money) market leader.

Class 2 five furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 2.15: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals during the last decade, statistics which include two successful market leaders (within the last four years). Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests.

Listed ‘Superior Mile’ due to be contested at 2.50: Four-year-olds had won the previous three renewals before two three-year-olds outgunned the best placed four-year-old bronze medallist twelve months ago.  Six of the nine favourites have finished in the money via eight renewals, statistics which include three successful market leaders. Sir Michael Stoute is the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions and Tales Of Grimm was Michael’s only option earlier in the week.  Dank (7/2) was a winner for the service last week following similar comments relating to the same trainer.

Fourteen furlong Class 2 handicap event scheduled for 4.00: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourites have prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).  Mark Johnston held five options for the race at the time of writing having secured three of the last eight contests. Six of the nine winners carried a minimum burden of nine stones

Six furlong Nursery event due to be contested at 4.30: Only two of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/2) successful favourite. All five winners have carried 9-2 or less, as have thirteen of the fourteen horses which have finished in the frame.

 

Thirsk:

General stats: Tony Coyle saddled a 10/1 winner on the first day of September and Tony’s record at Thirsk makes for decent reading.  Tony has saddled three of his eleven runners at the venue to winning effect in recent times, whilst securing fifteen points of level stake profits. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: William Muir’s outsiders are worth a second glance at Kempton given his fifty seven point LSP figure via twenty three winners during the last five years. 

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Keith Dalgleish has saddled eleven winners at Wolverhampton this season via a 20% strike rate which has realised seven points of level stake profits. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: I noted that trainer Anthony Honeyball was singled out as a trainer to watch in one of the Geegeez blogs recently and readers of this service will know that I have talked about Anthony’s recent success rate at length.  Anthony’s strike rate here at Stratford stands at 38% via five winners, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of twelve points. As the blog suggested, Anthony’s runners tend to perform well a long distance from home, albeit Stratford is too far away from the trainer’s Dorset base.  Rachel Green (Anthony’s partner) is one of the unsung heroes of the turf (note the politically correct writing) and long may that continue whereby we ‘shrewdies’ can avail ourselves of decent prices relating to her mounts.  

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2 replies
  1. Ian says:

    Best of luck Mal – I would be blocking every conceivable gap in the place – am terrified of snakes having nearly being bitten by an adder when I was a kid!

    That apart – welcome back and another excellent and valuable insight to assist in the never ending battle to beat the Bookies!

    • Mal Boyle
      Mal Boyle says:

      Hi Ian…..I cannot pretend I am happy about it but when you rent, you have to take the chances with the opportunity! As the newcomers are on the top floor, I will not be going up the ladder to meet the reptiles!

      Thanks for your positive comment about the ‘service’….I love forward thinking people as it is far easier in life to be negative, as so many people appear to be.

      Best of luck this week…and beyond…..Mal.

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