Well, I Declare! 5th to 9th June

Well I Declare, 5th to 9th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 5th to 9th June

Well, I Declare! 5th to 9th June

Good Morning and welcome to your weekly stat pack courtesy of Mal Boyle's "Well, I Declare" feature.

Today we're printing the whole week's information as a whole article, but we'll still be doing a daily reminder piece each morning for you. So, if you're planning on having a bet this week: this is the place to start!

Trainers are creatures of habit (without wishing to generalise of course) whereby some of the work this week focuses on last year’s results at the relevant meetings.  This path has pointed me in the directions of hundreds of winners down the years…I hope you experience similar results!  Where you do not read about last year’s stats, you can take it as read that no corresponding meeting took place twelve months ago.  That said, these last two weeks did throw up some controversy over old/new ‘corresponding’ meetings because of the early Derby date alongside the additional Bank Holiday.


TUESDAY 05/06:

Leicester:

General stats: Two of the eight favourites won on last year’s card which consisted of seven races.

2.10: Thirteen of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, though the record is not surprising given that market leaders have won nine of the contests.

3.15: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones, whilst horses carrying 8-13 or more secured eleven of the twelve available toteplacepot positions. Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner) to date via four renewals.

3.50: The four favourites to date have secured two gold and one bronze medal between them to date.

 

Redcar:

General stats: Five of the seven races at Redcar twelve months ago were secured by market leaders.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: The biggest priced winner on last year’s card was a 4/1 chance at a meeting which produced five successful market leaders via a total of seven races.

2.20: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals whilst seven gold medallists during the period scored at odds of 7/2 or less. Six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.

2.50: Four of the last nine winners were returned as favourites, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at just 13/2.

3.25: Three-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

4.00: This is the second division of the previous race on the card; same stat: Three-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

5.35: Two of the five favourites have finished in the money (one winner) via four renewals thus far.  Nine of the thirteen available win and place positions have been secured by horses carrying 8-13 or less, statistics which include three of the four winners.

6.05: Favourites come into the finale on a four-timer, market leaders having won four of the seven renewals.  Four-year-olds have secured five of the seven contests thus far.

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Peter Bowen is represented in four races on the Ffos Las card, twelve months on from landing a 170/1 four-timer at the meeting! Last year’s toteplacepot dividend was recorded at £712.80.

 

WEDNESDAY 06/06:

Nottingham:

General stats: Five of the eight races on last year’s card were won by favourites, all eight winners having ranged in price between 8/15 and 15/2. 

2.00: Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners) via four renewals.

2.30: Both (7/2 & 5/6) favourites have won this contest to date.

3.05: Market leaders at 8/11 and 6/4 have won both renewals thus far.

3.40: All three favourites (8/15-2/1-9/4) have prevailed on a card which has proved costly for bookmakers in recent years.

4.15: Four and five-year-olds have won nine of the last 10 renewals of this event, with the junior raiders chalking up seven successes during the period.  Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled three of the last eight winners and the trainer saddles his six-year-old raider Invisible Man on this occasion.  With no four-year-olds in the line up this time around (and just one five-year-old), the Elusive Quality gelding might prevail.  I have included all the stats as I’m sure some of you will keep the information for future reference.  Favourites have won five of the last 10 contests, the biggest priced winner being recorded at just 7/1 during the study period.

4.45: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst the only two successful market leaders during the period having scored in two of the last three years.  The last six favourites have all secured toteplacepot positions.

5.15: We still await the first successful market leader following seven contests.  Nine of the last 10 winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals during which time, all five winners carried a maximum burden of nine stones.

 

Ripon:

General stats: One clear and one joint favourite won on last year’s six race card. 

 

Cartmel:

General stats: The (Irish) Crawford yard saddled three winners on the Monday meeting at Cartmel last year and not having runners on either Saturday or Monday this time around, the stable was potentially represented by three runners on Wednesday.  Only one of the seven races at last year’s corresponding meeting was secured by a market leader. 

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Four of the seven favourites prevailed, including the first three market leaders on the card to get favourite backers off to a flying start.  Although the biggest priced winner on the card was just an 8/1 chance, several fingers were burned in the relevant contest when the 1/5 favourite was beaten by eight lengths in the Conditional Jockey’s event at the meeting. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: Andrew Balding saddled a 89/1 double in successive races on the card twelve months ago. 

 

THURSDAY 07/06:

Hamilton:

General stats: David Barron won the first two races on the card creating a 19/1 double, whilst Kevin Ryan also saddled a double at odds of 54/1 (9/1 & 9/2).  Two of the seven races on the card went the way of market leaders. 

 

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Sandown:

General stats: This meeting presented the majority of the bookmakers with their Royal Ascot ‘stash’, the six winners being returned at 33/1-25/1-25/1-12/1-15/2-11/2.  The only successful market leader was a 15/2 joint favourite on the card.  The unsuccessful 4/6 favourite in the opening event paved the way for layers to make the most of the subsequent results. 

Class 5 five furlong juvenile event scheduled for 6.15: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals, with trainer Richard Hannon having saddled 8/1 and 4/1 winners to date.  Richard has also saddled three silver medallists, albeit the inmates were fancied to go one better having been sent of as favourites at 4/6-6/4-9/4. Four of the five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip due to be contested at 6.50: Five contests have slipped by since the only favourite scored via nine renewals.  Six winners have scored in double figures, ranging between 10/1 and 33/1.  Four of the last five gold medallists carried a minimum weight of 9-5.  Four of the nine market leaders finished in the frame.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 7.25: Four of the last five winners have been returned in double figures in a race in which we still await the first successful favourite following seven renewals.  Only two market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

One mile Class 4 handicap scheduled for 7.55: Four-year-olds have won the last four renewals whilst vintage representatives have claimed six of the last seven available toteplacepot positions.  The last four favourites have all finished in the frame, statistics which include two gold medallists.

Ten furlong three-year-old maiden event scheduled for 8.30: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite won consecutive races between 2006 and 2007, though successful ‘jollies’ have been conspicuous by their absence in subsequent events.  Sir Michael Stoute held three options earlier in the week as the only trainer to have won two renewals of this event during the last decade.  The last three market leaders have finished out of the frame at odds of 11/10-11/10-7/4.

 

Wetherby:

General stats: Although all seven winners were returned at odds of 100/30 or less, just two successful favourites were recorded. 

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Watch out for any Paul Webber runners on the card with the trainer holding five options at the time of writing.  I noted that Paul did not have any runners at Sunday’s meeting at the track despite saddling a 21/1 double on last year’s card.  Four of Paul five winners at the course in recent times have hailed from his hurdlers and it’s worth considering the fact that Lemon’s Gent held two options in races over timber at the meeting. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Three of the seven favourites won at the meeting with an 8/1 chance being the biggest priced winner on the card. 

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Paul Rich boasts a 35% strike rate at Dunstall Park with potential runners at the meeting at the time of writing.  Popular handlers such as John Gosden (24%), Jeremy Noseda (32%), Roger Varian (36%) and Mark Johnston (24%) also held options at the meeting earlier in the week.  

 

FRIDAY 08/06:

Bath:

General stats: Rod Millman saddled a 44/1 double on the card last season.  The six winners ranging between 3/1 and 8/1 with all six favourites beaten on the day.  The £1,063.10 toteplacepot dividend confirmed the unlikely results.

Ten furlong Class 5 handicap scheduled for 6.30: Four-year-olds have won four of the six races thus far with vintage handicappers coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick. Three of the eight favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.

Class 5 Five furlong handicap for fillies scheduled for 7.35: Five renewals have slipped by without a favourite scoring since the inaugural 6/5 market leader won back in 2006.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Five and a half furlong handicap due to be contested at 8.10: Three of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via six renewals.  Just one winning favourite has been recorded though it was hardly surprising that relevant contest produced a successful market leader as in a five runner event, four horses were sent off as 3/1 co favourites!

 

Catterick:

General stats: David O’Meara saddled a 19/1 double on the card twelve months ago where favourites won three of the seven races on the card.  All seven winners ranged in price between 1/9 and 5/1.

Class 6 selling event scheduled for 2.35: Three of the nine races during the last decade were won by market leaders.  The biggest priced winner during the last six contests (all three favourites won during the period) was returned at 5/1, whilst five of six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Five furlong (Class 5) handicap scheduled for 3.10: The last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, whilst five of those gold medallists were saddled with weights ranging between 9-6 and 9-13.  Ruth Carr has saddled two of the last three winners and the trainer held two options at the five-day stage.

Class 4 six furlong handicap: Two of the three market leaders have prevailed though last year’s hat trick seeker finished out of the frame.

Maiden event over twelve furlongs due to be contested at 4.20: Six favourites have obliged via nine contests during the last decade.  All nine market leaders finished in the frame though from a win perspective, it’s worth noting that the beaten favourites were sent off at 4/11-8/13-5/4.

Class 6 six furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: Six renewals have slipped by since the only successful favourite (via nine renewals) scored back in 2005.  All nine winners carried 8-13 or more whilst six of the last seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 9-4.  Four of the nine market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

Doncaster:

General stats: Brian Meehan saddled a 1082/1 treble on the card last year via winners at 16/1-15/2-13/2.  Just one of the six races was secured by a market leader.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: The results I have down for this two-day meeting were for the previous weekend when the Derby was staged later than was the case this time around.  Certain publications suggest this is a new two-day meeting whereby you might want to check for yourself though that said, trainers tend to target venues at certain times of the year whereby I believe the stats could still be relevant, whatever your detections find! Winning favourites were conspicuous by their absence on last year’s Friday card with Mark Johnston securing a 31/1 double at the meeting.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Nicky Henderson (15/34 during the last five years) boasts a 44% ratio at the venue.

 

SATURDAY 09/06:

Chester:

General stats: Willie Haggas boasts a 33% record (9/27) at Chester in recent seasons, statistics which have produced a level stake profit of over six points. 

 

Doncaster:

General stats: Three of the six favourites won on last year’s six race card. Importantly perhaps, favourite backers got off to a good start via a 9/4 winner, whilst the last two races went to market leaders at 9/4 & 1/3. 

One mile Class 2 handicap scheduled for 2.05: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last three winners and the trainer was responsible for three of the twenty penultimate stage entries earlier in the week.  Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner).

2YO maiden fillies event over six furlongs scheduled for 2.40: All five favourites (via four renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winning favourites.

Class 5 five furlong event scheduled for 3.15: Eight of the nine winners during the last decade scored at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst two of the last three favourites have prevailed.

Class 2 handicap over seven furlongs scheduled for 3.45: Only one of the four favourites to date has finished in the money (no winners).

Class 2 Conditions event over ten furlongs scheduled for 4.20: Luca Cumani has saddled both (3/1 & 11/4) winners thus far.  We still await the first successful favourite, one market leader having finished in the frame to date.

One and a half mile Class 4 handicap scheduled for 4.55: Successful favourites via eight renewals during the last decade have been conspicuous by their absence.  The eight winners were returned at odds ranging between 5/1 and 40/1.  Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Four of the six contests were secured by favourites on last year’s card.  The last three successful favourites sent bookmakers home in a bad mood, market leaders having secured those races at 11/4-9/4-7/4.  Favourite backers had got the evening off to a good start twelve months ago with the first 11/4 ‘jolly’ obliging.

Six furlong Class 5 juvenile event scheduled for 6.45: Although two favourites have won via five renewals to date, it’s worth noting that the other market leaders priced at 1/2-4/5-9/4 all finished out of the frame.

Class 5 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 7.15: Four-year-olds had won the first four renewals before vintage representative finished second/third/fourth behind a six-year-old winner twelve months ago.  Two of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).  The last four winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones.

Two mile handicap scheduled for 7.45: Three of the five winners have scored at 22/1-16/1-10/1 whilst we still await the first successful market leader.  Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Ten furlong Class 5 handicap scheduled for 8.15: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick, the first three market leaders in the contest having finished out of the frame.

Maiden event over ten furlongs (Class 5) scheduled for 8.45: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed, the other winner during the period having scored at 9/4.  The inaugural winner back in 2007 won at 100/1.

Class 5 five furlong handicap due to be contested at 9.15.  Four of the five winners were recorded as successful favourites whilst the other renewal was won by a 3/1 chance.  The last four winners carried weights of 9-1 or more.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Two of the seven races were secured by market leaders last year with Mahmood Al Zarooni saddling the first two winners at 8/1 and 11/1 (107/1 double).

 

Windsor:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda (18/72) and Rae Guest (4/16) boast 25% strike rates at Windsor in recent years. 

 

Hexham:

General stats: Four clear favourites and one 11/4 joint favourite scored on a six race card twelve months ago. 

 

Worcester:

General stats: Jonjo O’Neill (29/1) and Charlie Longsdon (22/1) both saddled doubles at the meeting. The only successful (10/11) market leader was recorded in the closing bumper event when ’favourite backers’ might have been in too much trouble to be ‘bailed out’.

 

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