The week's notable race entries...

Well I Declare 7th December 2011

Malcolm Boyle is back with us this week, having cast his eye over the upcoming racing.

This is what he has to say this week:

"An apology offered for the missing column last week due to a particularly vicious bout of ‘man flu’.  Plenty of ‘medication’ got me safely through such troubled times during which, I hope you backed plenty of winners."

The week's notable race entries...

Mal Boyle's "Well I Declare!"



General stats: J.J. Lambe boasts a 26% strike rate at Hexham whilst showing sixteen points of level stake profit for good measure.  Both of his runners demand respect if Hexham survives the morning inspection.

12.20: The four favourites to date have snared three gold and one silver medal.

2.20: Four-year-olds have won the last three contests whereby lone vintage raider One For Luck might be worth an each way play to minimum stakes.



General stats: Few riders can match the expertise from the saddle as Luke Morris at this venue. Luke boasts a level stake profit at Kempton which when riding 74 winners, takes some achieving.  Luke often dips under the radar when people are discussing top jockeys, though it’s as well to digest the fact that Luke sits in sixth place in the table with 112 winners to his name this year at the time of writing.

3.50: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot position to date, though only one favourite has obliged from a win perspective.

4.20: Two 6/4 and one 7/4 favourite have been beaten via three renewals to date, with just one of the three market leaders having finished in the frame.

4.50: All four winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more thus far (as have ten of the twelve horses to finish in the frame), which suggests that the bottom six horses in the handicap are set to struggle.

5.50: Course and distance winner Night Flash should take the beating given that the top weight is the only horse to run from the ‘superior’ weight sector, four of the five winners having carried 9-6 or 9-7 to date.

6.20: We still await the first winning favourite in this event via six renewals, with only three of the eight market leaders having finished in the frame thus far. That said, all twenty eight horses staring at odds of 11/1 or more have been beaten.



General stats: Nicky Henderson held seven options on the card earlier in the week at a track where he has saddled eleven winners via just twenty three horses during the last five years. Nicky has two runners on today’s card.

2.00: Six and seven-year-olds have secured 15 of the 17 available toteplacepot positions (including six of the seven winners) thus far.

2.30: Four favourites have won via seven renewals, the biggest priced winner to date having started at 3/1.  Seven of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.



General stats: David Barron is one of the trainers to look out for under the all weather code of racing as his LSP of twenty points (via 6/23 stats) at Lingfield suggests.

12.40: Both odds on favourites (4/7 & 4/6) have finished second in this opening event.

2.10: Both favourite have won this contest albeit via narrow margins (three parts and one length), for those that are playing the favourite/distance markets.

2.40: Both favourites have finished nearer last than first in this Class 5 handicap event.

3.40: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the money (no winners).




General stats: Nicky Henderson boasts a 35% strike rate via the following stats: Hurdles: 20/57--Steeplechase: 7/22--Bumpers: 7/19.

Mares novice chase scheduled for 1.00: All five winners have scored at odds of 3/1 or less (stats include three winning favourites)

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.30: Five-year-olds have secured five of the twelve available toteplacepot positions, stats which include two of the three winners (11/1 & 2/1).

‘Peterborough Chase’ scheduled for 2.00: The last five winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more, whilst five favourites have won via the last nine renewals.  Henrietta Knight has won five renewals during the study period and Somersby was her only option earlier in the week.

Three mile novice chase scheduled for 2.30: Just one favourites has obliges via the last eight renewals, during which time five winners have emerged at odds ranging between 12/1 & 25/1.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.00: Paul Webber boasts an LSP of over 35 points at Huntingdon and Theodore Lamb was his only possible runner on the card earlier in the week.  The six-year-old also holds an entry at Doncaster later in the week however which would be worth an interest should Paul re-route his potential representative.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.30: Four-year-olds have secured eight of the twelve available toteplacepot positions, stat which include three of the four winners.



General stats: Jim Boyle was responsible for four of the ten penultimate stage declarations in the scheduled 4.00 (two-year-old) event.  Only six of the trainers potentially represented at Kempton on Thursday has saddled more winners at the Sunbury circuit.

Ten furlongs handicap scheduled for 4.30: Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured all six available toteplacepot positions.

Two mile handicap scheduled for 6.00: Appeal was the only three-year-old representative at the four-day stage which borders on the ridiculous.  Just a trio of three-year-olds have contested this event to date, producing both winners (15/2 & 5/1) whilst sealing the 20/1 Exacta dividend on the only available occasion!

Class 4 handicap scheduled for 6.30: Four-year-olds have secured four of the five available toteplacepot positions via just 40% of the total number of runners (stats include both winners).

Six furlong apprentice handicap scheduled for 7.00: Three-year-olds have won both renewals to date whilst securing five of the six available toteplacepot positions via 50% of the total number of runners.  The stats become more interesting when digesting the fact that three-year-olds secured 70/1 forecast and 350/1 tri-cast dividends on one occasion.



General stats: Rebecca Curtis enjoys a good record at Ludlow and the trainer held just one option at the four day stage with Tony McCoy already booked aboard Banyan Tree in the Claiming Hurdle event scheduled for 12.40.

Two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 1.40: Evan Williams has saddled two of the last four winners, with Bay Central entered up on behalf of the yard this time around.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 8/1, stats which include two successful market leaders.  Four of the five winners carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five contests at 14/1--9/1--8/1--7/1.



General stats: Lawney Hill has saddled the of her eight runners at Taunton to winning effect and Betavix was her only potential runner on the card in the three mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.50.


FRIDAY 9/12:



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General stats: Colin Tizzard had just one runner entered for each day of the meeting earlier in the week, the trainer boasting a magnificent LSP of 68 points during the last five years.

Twenty one furlong novice chase scheduled for 12.00: Six-year-olds have won five of the eight renewals thus far.

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 12.35: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5-2 via the last ten renewals of this contest.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 1.10:  Six renewals have slipped by since a favourite won this event.

Grade 3 chase scheduled for 1.45: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals during which time, each gold medallist carried 11-5 or less.  Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals, the biggest priced winner during the period being returned at 10/1.   Since 2001, 73 horses have tried and failed to win this event when being sent off at odds of 11/1 or more.

Cross country event scheduled for 2.20: Although Enda Bolger and his team of Irish raiders have dominated these events at Cheltenham in recent years, it’s worth recalling that Ferdy Murphy has won this race three times since 2001 (16/1-13/2-6/1) and Hennessy is the potential stable representative on this occasion.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.55: Five and six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals between them, with six-year-olds leading 3-2 during the period.

NH novice hurdle qualifier scheduled for 3.30: Four and five-year-olds have alternatively won the last seven renewals between them with the younger vintage due to score this time around.  Six renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.  The previous four winners during the last decade obliged, whilst 69 horses have started in double figures during the period without tasting success.



General stats: Tony Carroll has two horses engaged to run at Doncaster on Friday (none on Saturday) and it’s worth noting that Tony has saddled five of his fifteen runners on Town Moor under the NH code to winning effect.  Throw in a level stake profit of forty two points for good measure and you will want to note his raiders if they are offered the green light later this week. 

Nineteen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.00: Five renewals have been contested since a winning favourite was registered during which time, three four-year-olds have scored.



General stats: David Nicholls had ten entries pencilled in over the course of Friday/Saturday/Sunday at Southwell and it’s worth reminding readers that the trainer boasts a magnificent LSP of 154 points during the last five years at the venue.

Seven furlong 2YO maiden event scheduled for 12.15: Favourites of one description or another have won all four contests to date.

Nursery event scheduled for 12.50: Horses carrying 9-3 or more have secured six of the last seven available toteplacepot positions, stats which include all three winners.

Class 5 one mile handicap scheduled for 1.25: Four-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals with vintage representatives conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago.



General stats: I have drawn attention to Keith Dalgleish at Wolverhampton a few times already via this column and I note that Keith saddled a 6/1 winner with his only runner at the venue last Friday.  Keith held two options for the two-day meeting at the time of writing.

Class 6 seven furlongs handicap scheduled for 5.10: Three and four-year-olds have won five of the six renewals to date whilst three favourites have obliged.  All 32 horses starting at odds of 11/1 or more have failed to score.

Class 6 nine furlong handicap event scheduled for 6.10: Horses carrying 8-9 or more have secured all but one of the available fifteen toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include all five winners.




General stats: Nigel Twiston-Davies boasts an LSP of over fifty points and though keeping his powder dry this weekend in terms of his more illustrious inmates, Nigel has seven runners potentially engaged.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 12.10: Although ‘only’ three favourites have won via the last eight renewals of this event, seven gold medallists were returned at odds of 9/2 or less.  All 49 horses during the study period which were sent off at 11/1 or more were beaten.

Twenty five furlong novice chase scheduled for 12.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals of this event, a contest which Paul Nicholls has secured three times during the period. Five favourites have won during the spell with the biggest priced winner returned at 11/2.  All 28 horses starting at 6/1 or more failed to win.

Class 2 two mile chase scheduled for 1.20: Nicky Henderson held two options earlier in the week in a race he has secured three times via the last seven renewals.

Grade 2 three mile hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Market leaders have secured five of the seven renewals thus far.

Grade 3 handicap chase contested over two miles and five furlongs scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls held two options (both jocked up) in an attempt to land a hat trick in the contest.  Seven-year-olds have landed four of the last seven renewals whilst the last four gold medallists carried weights of 11-4 or more to victory.

Grade 2 International Hurdle scheduled for 3.05: Seven favourites have won during the last decade.

‘Relkeel Hurdle’ scheduled for 3.35: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.  Three market leaders have scored via eight contests, the biggest priced winner being returned at 8/1.  All 24 horses starting at odds of 17/2 or more have been beaten.



General stats: Rebecca Curtis (2/4) and Tim Vaughan (2/5) are two ‘new kids’ on the Doncaster block to ignore at your peril.

Class 3 nineteen furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.15: All seven winners carried 10-13 or more with six gold medallists burdened with 11-4 or more.  The first two favourites obliged, though the five subsequent market leaders have been turned over.  That said, all 27 horses sent off at 12/1 or more have failed to score.


General stats: Charlie Mann (6/17) is one of several trainers to note under the NH code at Lingfield.  Others include Nicky Henderson (5/13) alongside stats of 3/8 via Paul Webber and Tim Vaughan.



General stats: John Gosden only had four horses entered up to run this week at the time of writing, two of which were for this meeting.  John boasts a 41% strike rate via figures of 12/29 whereby the green light for either/both of his potential raiders would warrant close inspection



General stats: Time To Play held three entries this week (due to contest the 6.20 event at Kempton tonight) and if given the green light to run at Wolverhampton on Saturday, Gary Brown’s runner might with worth an each way play given the trainer’s 3/13 figures at the track.


SUNDAY 11/12: All of Sunday’s races in England have little (if any) history.


General stats: With a level stake profit of nearly thirty points at Hereford, Richard Lee’s runners a worth a second glance and the trainer held six options at the course at the time of writing. 



General stats: Four of Brian Ellison’s last eighteen runners had won while I was pencilling in my thoughts this week and with the trainer boasting an LSP figure of 34 points via a 24% strike rate at Southwell, Brian’s runners are invariably worth plenty of attention.


Mal Boyle

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