Well I Declare: 7th to 11th August

Well I Declare, 7th to 11th August

Well I Declare: 7th to 11th August

Well I Declare: 7th to 11th August

Please don’t laugh, as I fell out of bed on Sunday night (turned over the wrong way--or was I pushed?), giving myself a shocking bang on the head whilst turning the grey rug red via my nose which caught the brunt of the blow.  The tragedy of the scenario was that I was stone cold sober.

I hope the column this week makes some sort of sense as Monday was very much a recovery day, as I intervened between napping and offering statistics all day long.

Be lucky but most of all….be observant.

 

TUESDAY 07/08:

Bath:

General stats: Daryll Holland has four booked rides at the time of writing, the jockey boasts level stake profits of twenty-nine points via a 21% strike rate at the venue.

2.00: Jonathan Portman landed a nice winner for me on Sunday in Pasaka Boy and having secured two of the last five renewals of this contest, Jonathan saddles Tregereth on this occasion.  Only one (4/5) favourite has obliged during the last eight years, though seven of the ten market leaders in the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.00: Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones, whilst three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include three winners.  Level stake one hundred pound investments on the market leaders thus far would have yielded a profit of £425.00.

4.00: Three-year-olds had won three of the five renewals prior to 2009 since when just two (beaten) vintage representatives have contested the event. Three relevant raiders are in the mix this time around, though Blanc De Chine will only contest the event if conditions dry out overnight.  I only live ten minutes from the track and the local forecast does not bode well for the ‘dead eight’ scenario.  Five of the last ten renewals have seen secured by favourites of one description or another.  Ten of the eleven markets leaders finished in the frame during the last decade.

4.30: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals in Bath’s toteplacepot finale.

5.30: Mick Channon has won with the only two runners he has saddled in the race (2007 & 2008) and the trainer has declared Flashy Star on this occasion.

 

Catterick:

General stats: Geoff Harker secured a 7/4 double on the card last year and the trainer is double-handed on the card this time around. Geoff saddled several winners during the corresponding week twelve months ago.

 

Ripon:

General stats: Neill Callan’s 28% strike rate in the saddle is something to behold.  Pam Sly (4/11) and William Haggas (10/30) are trainers to take into consideration.

7.35: Tax Free ran well for a long way (certainly for the distance of this five furlong event) in Saturday's Steward's Cup at Goodwood, whilst trainer David Nicholls also saddles Fitz Flyer and Bonnie Charlie in this new contest.  Further rain would help Sovereign Street in her quest to land a hat trick from the bottom of the handicap.

8.05: Becausewecan has been a trooper for the Johnston team, acting as 'underdog' on several occasions when Mark was (at least) double handed in relevant contests.  The six-year-old is still a seven time winner however, notwithstanding fourteen additional efforts when finishing 'in the three'.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Mickael Barzalona has a few booked rides Kempton this week, boasting a 26% strike rate thus far, a ratio which has produced fifteen points of LSP profits.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: I have had my eye on Riviera Romance (4.40) for a while now and today might be the day that John Hills greets another winner.  All dressed up and nowhere to go two outings ago, the Zamindar filly might be worth another chance at rewarding odds in this grade/company. 

 

WEDNESDAY 08/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Nine of the nineteen market leaders obliged at the three-day meeting twelve months ago.  Only two trainers saddled more than one winner during the course of the three days, namely Andrew Haynes (three winners) and Mick Channon (two).

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Leading trainers such as John Quinn (sixty-seven points) and Michael Dods (thirty-seven) have recorded extremely positive LSP figures at Gosforth Park during the last five years. 

 

Pontefract:

General stats: Henry Candy has had his team in good form for some time now and his 28% strike rate at Pontefract stands out from the crowd.

2.30: Nine of the seventeen market leaders have reached the frame via twelve renewals (five winners) thus far.

3.00: Favourite backers go into battle with confidence on a high as seven of the last nine renewals have been won by market leaders of one description or another.  Going back further in time, nine favourites have won during the last fourteen years, with ten gold medallists having been returned at odds of 11/4 or less.

4.00: Six of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more.  Four favourites have won during the study period, though just three of the other thirteen market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

4.30: Nine of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, which effectively reduces the field down to seven from twelve if you are a number cruncher like yours truly.  Six-year-olds have won six of the last fourteen renewals of this sprint event. One clear and another joint favourite have scored during the last fifteen years, whilst eight of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

5.00: All four winners have carried 9-1 or more to victory as have eleven of the twelve horses which have secured toteplacepot positions.  Four of the five favourites (via four renewals) have finished out with the washing though the one market that secured a toteplacepot position won the relevant event.

5.30: Six of the seven winners to date have carried 8-10 or more whilst we still await the first successful favourite, the (each way) winners to date having ranged between 5/1 and 12/1 thus far. Colbyor represents Richard Fahey this time around, the trainer having secured two of the last six contests.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Six of the thirteen favourites won at last year’s two-day meeting, three successful market leaders being registered on each day.  No trainer saddled more than one winner during the two day fixture.  Three of the thirteen winners were returned in double figures, ranging in price between 10/1 and 33/1.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor held seven options for this meeting at the four-day stage, the trainer boasting a 35% strike rate which has produced thirty-nine points of level stake profits in the process during the last five years.

 

THURSDAY 09/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Brighton’s Thursday card produced three successful favourites twelve months ago and the good news for punters, was that the three gold medallists wrapped up the afternoon.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: In form trainers such as Mark Johnston (28%) and Andrew Balding (26%) tend to fare well at Chepstow, whilst results for favourite backers are nothing to write home about as a general rule of thumb.

 

Haydock:

General stats:  Five favourites prevailed via twenty races at this three-day meeting twelve months ago.  John Gosden saddled two winners during the course of the three days, his gold medallists having been sent off at 8/1 and 5/1.

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One mile three-year-old handicap scheduled for 3.10: Eight horses have carried 9-7 in the last seven years, snaring three gold medals alongside two silvers (one at 14/1) in the process.  Three of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).  Five renewals have slipped by the since the last market leader prevailed.

Class 4 all aged six furlong handicap due to be contested at 3.40: Horses carrying weights of 9-3 or more have won the last five renewals, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs--most recent renewal listed first):

10-11-8 (10 ran-good)

16-2-17-11 (16 ran-good to soft)

6-8-9 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-2-13-3 (16 ran-heavy)

13-3-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

9-13-11 (9 ran-good)

7-12-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-8 (6 ran-heavy)

9-6-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

 

Class 5 three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 4.10: Seven of the nine winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less.  Six of the nine favourites to date have finished out of the frame, though two market leaders have won to ensure that level stake investors are ‘only’ £312.50 behind to level one hundred pound stakes to date.

Ten furlong class 5 handicap scheduled for 4.40: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have secured fifteen of the last twenty-two available toteplacepot positions, stats which included the last seven winners.  Three favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven of the fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (ten and a half furlongs--most recent renewal listed first):

9-10-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-8-2 (10 ran soft)

14-13-2-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

16-9-6 (13 ran-good)

14-1-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-9-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-7-16-6 (16 ran-good)

1-7-14 (14 ran-good)

7-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-1-2 (9 ran-heavy)

14-2-8-5 (18 ran-good)

2-4-10 (11 ran-good)

6-9-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-7-8 (9 ran-good)

Fourteen furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.10: All six winners to date have carried weights of 9-3 or less, whilst successful favourites are conspicuous by their absence following six renewals to date.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Four of Jeremy Noseda’s last ten runners had won at the time of writing (notwithstanding two silver medallists during the period) and Jeremy’s 30% strike rate here at Sandown stands the closest inspection.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Yes It’s The Boy (scheduled to contest the 3.00 event) was Ed Walker’s only runner on the card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting impressive 4/7 stats at the track.  Other trainers at Yarmouth to take into consideration are Paul D’Arcy, Roger Varian and Sir Mark Prescott.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Apart from obvious names such as William Haggas and Mark Johnston to respect, Sylvester Kirk and Jo Hughes are likelier to produce big priced winners at the seaside venue.

 

FRIDAY 10/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Andrew Haynes saddled an 8/1 double on the card twelve months ago via 7/2 and even money winners.

 

Haydock:

General stats: It is hardly surprising that Natasha Eaton (4/9) and Daniel Byrne (2/5) already have booked rides at Haydock given their success at the track thus far.

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Roninski (scheduled to contest the 4.00 event) is Bryan Smart’s only potential runner on the Musselburgh card, with the trainer boasting a 24% strike rate in Edinburgh, backed up by forty-six points of level stake profits.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Given that Richard Hannon has saddled 341 runners on the July course during the last five years, it is surprising in the extreme that his fifty winners have produced a level stake profit of forty-three points during the period.

Nursery event scheduled for 5.40: Seven of the ten winners of this two-year-old event during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 8-13.  Six favourites have won this contest (including four of the last eight) during the study period, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Seven furlong juvenile seller scheduled for 6.10:  The last eleven winners of this juvenile event have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less, albeit just one successful favourite was recorded during the study period.  Two favourites have won in the last fourteen years, whilst six of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Juvenile maiden event over seven furlongs due to be contested at 6.45: I’m not certain of my facts, though I cannot recall any other meeting during the course of the year when three seven furlong events open a meeting, especially when the three events are all of the juvenile variety.  Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have secured a toteplacepot position during the study period.  Mahmood Al Zarooni held five entries earlier in the week coming into the gig on a hat trick.

Class 3 all aged ten furlong handicap event scheduled for 7.15: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, whilst five favourites have won via eleven renewals during the last thirteen years.  Eight of the twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Market leaders come to the party on a hat trick this time around.

Ten furlongs conditions event scheduled for 7.50: Saeed Bin Suroor has secured two gold and one silver medal to date via four renewals.  Potential stable representative Invisible Hunter was one of only six runners declared for the contest at the five-day stage. All four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (two winners).

Class 3 six furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 8.20: Eleven of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more. One clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last fifteen years, whilst six of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process. The last eleven winners have scored at 16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-2/1, without a successful market leader being recorded.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe has had secured six gold, seven silver and three bronze medals via his last twenty-three runners at the time of writing.  The fact that Tom boasts an LSP figure of fifty-nine points via a 26% strike rate at Lingfield of late suggests you need to keep his runners in mind with the stable enjoying an (each way) purple patch at present.

 

SATURDAY 11/08:

Ascot:

General stats: It’s Shergar Cup day which means that I will be looking elsewhere for my financial input on Saturday!  Those of you that will be playing however will want to know that on last year’s corresponding card, Andrew Balding secured a 21/1 double, with Mark Johnston headlining (again) via a 169/1 twosome.

 

Ayr:

General stats: Alan Swinbank saddled a 17/1 double on last year’s card.  Sir Mark Prescott’s ratio of 5/15 is worth noting.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Paul Green saddled a 26/1 double via two successful (9/2 & 4/1) favourites on the Saturday card at Haydock last year.

Nursery event scheduled for 1.45:  Seven of the last ten winners having carried weights of 9-2 or less.  Out of interest, the other three winners during the last decade were burdened with 9-7. The last clear favourite obliged back in 2001, since when six winners were returned in double figures ranging from 12/1 to 25/1.

Group 3 ‘Rose Of Lancaster’ event scheduled for 2.55: Three-year-olds had won nine of the previous twelve renewals, yet junior raiders were conspicuous by their absence last year!  Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have scored via fourteen renewals.  Twelve of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Ten furlong Class 2 handicap scheduled for 3.25: All eight winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less whilst three-year-olds have won four of the eight renewals.  Two of the eight contests have fallen the way of the favourite.  Three of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame.

Class 5 all aged six furlong handicap scheduled for 4.30: Paul Green has won with the last two horses he has saddled in this event (both returned as favourites) and Paul’s only entry at the five-day stage was Ferdy.  Four-year-olds have won three of the four renewals thus far.

The last three (of four) favourites have won following the third placed (dead heat) effort of the 15/8 inaugural favourite back in 2009.  Favourites have recorded a level stake profit of £1,150.00 to one hundred pound investments to date.

Class 3 all aged handicap over a mile due to be contested at 5.05: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last five years, whilst the last seven winners were burdened with a minimum weight of 8-13.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Sir Henry Cecil was among the winners when securing a 21/1 double on the corresponding card twelve months ago. Five of Henry’s last nineteen runners have won, nothwithstanding two silver medallists during the period.

 

Redcar:

General stats: A couple of handlers were in the money at Redcar on last year’s corresponding card with Tim Easterby (36/1 double) edging out Richard Fahey (23/1 double). Alakhan (scheduled to run in the 3.45 contest) would be worth an interest if given the green light by Ian Williams, the trainer having saddled four of his eight runners at Redcar to winning effect.  The six-year-old was Ian’s only potential runner on the card.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: John Gosden saddled a couple of short priced winners on last year’s card which equated to a 5/1 double.

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