Well, I Declare! 8th-12th May

Well I Declare, 8th May 2012

Well, I Declare! 8th-12th May

Well, I Declare! 8th-12th May

Hi again and welcome to this latest edition of Well, I Declare: your weekly racing preview.

This week’s work is dominated by the big Chester meeting.  I appreciate that this is not the ideal venue for some of you but that said, the draw offers a genuine chance for investors to have an edge over the layers which makes for a refreshing change.  Anyone who doubts that scenario should take a look at the draw statistics for the Chester Cup (2.35 Wednesday) which is contested over eighteen furlongs!

TUESDAY 08/05:

Catterick:

General stats: Silvestre De Sousa had five booked rides at the meeting at the time of writing, the pilot boasting a 22% strike rate at Catterick thus far, statistics which have produced an astonishing level stake profit of one hundred and eighteen points.

6.10: Six of the eight favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three of the last five winners.   The last seven winners (of eight in total) have been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

6.40: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer, whilst four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (two winners).  Six of the seven winners have been sent off at 9/1 or less.

7.10: All six winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst the biggest priced winner to date was sent off at 8/1.  Three of the six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, one successful market leader having been recorded thus far.

7.40: Five renewals have slipped by since a favourite won this event during which time, just one of the six market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position.  All seven winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more thus far.

8.10: Although three and four-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, younger representatives have secured eight of the twelve available toteplacepot positions.

Although we still await the first successful market leader following four renewals, all four favourites have finished in the frame, the last three of which claimed silver medals.

8.40:  Four-year-olds have secured three of the six winners whilst claiming seven of the seventeen available toteplacepot positions. Three of the seven market leaders have claimed win and place positions via six renewals, statistics which include two successful favourites.

 

Exeter:

General stats: Vic Dartnell stands out from the crowd if you add his LSP figure of twenty-nine points to his strike rate of 23%.

 

Fakenham:

General stats: General stats: Alongside the positive Paul Nicholls stats featured below, Steve Gollings (5/16) and Alex Hales (6/20) are other trainers to keep on the right side.

2.30: The last four market leaders have secured three gold and one silver medal, whilst the 9/4 second favourite scoring on the other occasion.  Jim Best saddled the winner of this race back in 2008 and the same pilot takes the ride aboard the stable representative Goodwood Starlight this time around, namely Tony McCoy.

3.00: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

3.30: The positive Paul Nicholls stats of 5/16 at Fakenham during the last five years are slightly misleading as the trainer stands at 0/5 with his hurdlers during the period.

4.00: This is where Paul Nicholls comes into his own at Fakenham as five of Paul's eleven chasers have won in recent times and Deireadh Re has three rivals to beat on behalf of the stable this time around.

4.30: The local Turner yard has secured seven of the last ten renewals of the Hunter Chase event, the yard being represented by last year's winner Assassino on this occasion.

5.00: The last five winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include two successful favourites.  The three beaten favourites during the period all secured silver medals.  Jim Best saddles two runners on the card with Tony McCoy book aboard both runners, with six-year-old Bollin Judith representing the stable in the finale.

 

Southwell:

General stats: The only booked ride for Josh Baudains is course and distance winner Beachwood Bay, the pilot having won on seven of his seventeen mounts at the venue.  On the training front, Saeed Bin Suroor is at the head of the stats list in terms of the represented yards on Tuesday.

2.15: Pearl Noir represents Scott Dixon who has won with the only two juveniles he has saddled during this short career thus far.

 

WEDNESDAY 09/05:

Chester:

General stats: Aidan O’Brien (40% strike rate) edges out Ed McMahon (32%) regarding the represented yards on the opening day of the big meeting. 

1.35: Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the last fourteen years.  Twelve of the last fourteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less. Five of the last nine winners have emerged from traps one or two.

2.05: ’Team Hills’ has fittingly (Robert Sangster’s name was added to the title five years ago) won this Cheshire Oaks three times in the last fourteen years and Charlie saddles his Marju filly Safarjal on this occasion. Thirteen of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

2.35: This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril. Low numbers invariably rule the roost as four of the last five results (see below) confirm.  The most recent result is listed first as in all cases with draw details this week.

‘Draw factor' (eighteen and a half furlongs):

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)
5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)
4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)
13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)
4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)
2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)
13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)
9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

3.05: Only on three occasions during the last fourteen years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a toteplacepot position in this event. The haul of just two gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the toteplacepot stat is impressive given that an average of thirteen horses have contested the race during the period.  Fifteen of the seventeen favourites have been beaten since 1997, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame during the period.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-7-5 (13 ran--good)
4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-2-8 (14 ran--good)
6-7-4 (13 ran-good)
2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)
1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-4-1 (12 ran-good)
6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
3.40: John Gosden has saddled four of the last nine winners and Shantaram might improve the ratio on behalf of the yard, despite an unfortunate stall position of 13/14.  Ten of the last twelve winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won six of the last seven races, whilst twelve of the last fifteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2-8 (7 ran--good)
10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)
2-4-5 (9 ran--good)
4-10-1 (11 ran-good)
7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)
3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
6 (4 ran-good to firm)
7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-1 (5 ran-good)
2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 38% strike rate beats Tony McCoy’s 30% return since Ffos Las opened its doors to the public back in 2009.

 

Stratford:

General stats: Paul Nicholls leads Charlie Longsdon 29% to 23% of the represented trainers at Southwell on Wednesday, both trainers producing small level stake profits in the process. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: Few stats stand out from the crowd relating to all-weather meetings at Kempton which is best summed up by the fact that the three top riders with booked rides ‘boast’ an aggregate strike rate of 14.3%.  That said, Jim Crowley (104) Adam Kirby (98) and Richard Hughes (93) have ridden a total of 295 winners between them at the Sunbury circuit during the last five years!

 

Southwell:

General stats: Daniel Mark Loughnane has saddled four of his nine runners at Southwell to winning effect.  Even John Gosden (37% strike rate via stats of 11/30) cannot beat those figures.

 

THURSDAY 10/05:

Chester:

General stats: It’s worth noting that Martin Harley has won on two of just three riders on the Roodee thus far.  Aidan O’Brien’s 40% ratio is worth repeating, whilst Marco Botti has won with two of the seven runners he has saddled at the venue.

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 1.35: Five-year-olds (carrying weights of 8-11 or less) have won four of the last six renewals of this event whilst five of the seven favourites have reached the frame (one winner).

‘Huxley Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.05: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven contests (vintage representatives come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion) whilst twelve of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (nine winners).  Nine of the last thirteen gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

‘Chester Vase’ scheduled for 2.35: Aidan O’Brien has won three of the last five renewals whilst eight of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (three winners).

Class 2 seven and a half furlong handicap scheduled for 3.05: Seven of the last ten winners carried weights of 8-11 or less whilst ten of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years (five winners).

'Draw factor' (seven and a half furlongs):

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)
3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)
6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-10-2 (9 ran-good)
6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)
2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)
2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)
12-6-5 (15 ran-good)
15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)
5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Juvenile five furlong maiden event due to be contested at 3.40: Thirteen of the sixteen favourites during the last thirteen years have finished in the frame (eight winners).

‘Draw factor' (five furlongs):

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)
5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)
4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
3-5 (7 ran-soft)
5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)
5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
1-7-6 (8 ran-good)
3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

Class 3 six furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less whilst seven of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners).  Mick Channon is the only trainer to have won this race twice during the last decade and the trainer held two options earlier in the week.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)
6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)
1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)
2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)
6-8-1 (10 ran-good)
9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)
1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)
1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)
6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)
9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

 

Class 3 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.45: Doctor Marwan Koukash is an owner who just loves greeting winners at Chester and the famous grey and orange colours were represented by six potential runners at the five-day stage.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst five contests have slipped by since a winner favourite was recorded.  The winners during this recent period were returned at 50/1-25/1-25./1-12/1-13/2.

 

Goodwood:

General stats: Mahommod Al Zarooni boasts a 29% strike rate at Goodwood, producing seven points of level stake profits to date.

 

Yarmouth:

Your first 30 days for just £1

General stats: Ezdeyaad is Ed Walker’s only potential runner on the card, the trainer having saddled three of his four runners at Yarmouth to winning effect. 

 

Kelso:

General stats: Nicky Richards continues to produce decent figures year in and year out and his 22 winners in recent years at Kelso (20% strike rate) have kept loyal investors happy. 

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Richard Johnson will be hoping that ‘AP’ does not ride at Newton Abbot as seems likely at the time of writing.  It must be nice when ‘Dicky’ walks into a changing room without the champion being in situ!  Richard has ridden thirty-four winners via a 20% strike rate at the venue during the last five years.

 

Wincanton:

General stats: Local trainer Paul Nicholls continues to rule the roost though this is just another venue where Rebecca Curtis is making inroads as a trainer.  Her 25% strike rate serves as a reminder to all punters that Rebecca is here to stay.

 

FRIDAY 11/05:

Chester:

General stats: Michael Bell’s runners are gaining vengeance following last year’s quiet season and Michael’s 25% strike rate at this venue can be improved upon during the course of the campaign.  Don’t forget those positive Aidan O’Brien and Ed McMahon stats mentioned earlier in the column.

Class 2 seven and a half furlong handicap scheduled for 1.35:  Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last four years), whilst seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more.  Four favourites have scored during the last 14 years.

'Draw factor' (seven and a half furlongs):

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)
7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)
6-4-1 (11 ran-good)
5-6-3 (12 ran-good)
10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)
1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)
4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)
2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)
16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)
3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)
7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)
Group 3 Dee Stakes scheduled for 2.05: Four market leaders have obliged during the study period.  Seven recent market leaders have reached the frame. Nine of the ten winners during the last decade were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Group 3 ‘Ormonde Stakes’ scheduled for 2.35: Six market leaders have rewarded investors during the last fourteen years.  Twelve of the last thirteen winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.

3YO handicap event scheduled for 3.05: Eight of the last ten winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more. Four favourites have won of late, whilst eleven of the last fourteen winners scored at 8/1 or less.  Eight of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

5-3-2 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-3 (6 ran-good to soft)
1-7-2 (10 ran--good to firm)
7-3-9 (8 ran-good)
3-6-1 (8 ran-good)
1-5-9 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-6-2 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-8-14 (15 ran-soft)
8-1-6 (15 ran-good)
11-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-7-4 (14 ran-good to firm)
4-1-5 (12 ran-good)
5-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)
5-7-2 (13 ran-good)

 

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-olds have secured five of the six toteplacepot positions thus far, , statistics which include one 10/1 winner. Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

11-4-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
2-14-1 (12 ran-good to soft)

Maiden for fillies over seven furlongs due to be contested at 4.15: Barry Hills had saddled four of the last twelve winners and son Charlie has declared two horses at the penultimate entry stage. Eight of the last eleven favourites have won this event.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

4-1-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
3-9-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
12-4-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
10-3-4 (10 ran-good)
4-5-13 (13 ran-good)
3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)
5-2-7 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-2 (6 ran-good to soft)
6-1-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
5-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-7-10 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-3 (7 ran-good)
2-1-9 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-1-6 (8 ran-good)

 

Class 4 mile and a half handicap scheduled for 4.45: Four-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the closing event at Chester’s May prestigious meeting.

 

Ascot:

General stats: James Fanshawe’s 22% strike rate stands out from the crowd, especially when noting his LSP figure of nearly thirty-two points.

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Kevin Ryan boasts the best ‘combined stats’ of the potentially represented trainers at Hamilton on Friday.  Kevin’s strike rate of 23% is backed up by an LSP figure of forty-seven points.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled just four winners this season via thirty runners, though his 38% strike rate here at Nottingham is worth close inspection.  For the record, Saeed held eight options for the two-day meeting earlier in the week. 

 

Ripon:

General stats: Sir Henry Cecil still reigns supreme at the odd track here and there and with the trainer boasting recent stats of 5/16 at Ripon, watch out for anything that Henry saddles at the racecourse this summer.  Henry held two options for this meeting earlier in the week.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Tom Siddall rides this track well as his 22% strike rate confirms.  Tom’s LSP figure of ninety-eight points might make you choke of your cornflakes!

 

Lingfield:

General stats: This is scheduled to be a mixed turf/all-weather meeting but with heavy ground in evidence at Lingfield at the time of writing, don’t be surprised if the races are dominated by the artificial surface.

 

SATURDAY 12/05:

Ascot:

General stats: Frankie Dettori took the world by storm when riding his ‘Magnificent Seven’ at Ascot all those years ago.  Now however, Frankie’s 10% strike rate during the last five years at the royal venue (level stake losses of over forty-five points) makes for depressing reading. Can you guess the year of Frankie’s finest hour? Try not to wince when you recall it was back in 1996!  

Listed ‘John Doyle’ stakes scheduled for 2.20: Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (all winners of their respective events).

Class 2 handicap for fillies over one mile scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last five contests having secured five of the last six available toteplacepot positions.  For good measure, vintage representatives swept the board twelve months ago, securing a £3000 Tricast dividend into the bargain!

‘Victoria Cup’ due to be contested at 3.25: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-3 during the last decade having won three of the last four renewals. Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, statistics which include the last seven gold medallists.

Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.10: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, having secured eight of the last ten available toteplacepot positions.

 

Haydock (mixed meeting):

General stats: This mixed meeting has produced an average toteplacepot dividend of £360.13 over the last ten years.  Last year’s dividend of £1,375.30 was the best return during the decade.

Grade 3 (Class 1) renewal of the ‘Swinton Hurdle’ scheduled for 3.40: Nicky Henderson comes into the race on a hat trick, whilst two favourites have won during the last decade.  Five-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, though six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals.  Eight of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled just four winners this season via thirty runners, though his 38% strike rate here at Nottingham is worth close inspection.  For the record, Saeed held eight options for the two-day meeting earlier in the week. 

 

Thirsk:

General stats: John Gosden took time out in a busy week to declare three potential runners at the meeting at the five-day stage having saddled three of his eight runners at the track in recent times to winning effect.  Saeed Bin Suroor usually gets his operation into full swing around this time of year and his 31% strike rate at this venue is worth noting.

 

Warwick:

General stats: Simple Rhythm was John Ryan’s only option on the card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting stats of 2/3 at the venue in recent years.  Saeed Bin Suroor’s 5/16 ratio also attracts the eye.

 

Hexham:

General stats: With few trainers recording a 20% strike rate at Hexham these days, it’s worth noting that Karen McLintock has saddled three of her nine runners at the venue to winning effect.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: This is scheduled to be a turf meeting but with heavy ground in evidence at Lingfield at the time of writing, don’t be surprised if the races are switched to the all-weather surface. It would be disappointing to witness the Oaks and Derby trials contested away from turf.

For the latest Irish race trends, click here.

Your first 30 days for just £1
6 replies
  1. John says:

    What an outstanding artical. I always knew that the draw was a big factor but, here Mal has thrown his two cents in and walla. In all I think this is worth a Tenner. I will follow what is written closely believe me.
    Keep up the good work Mal,
    John

  2. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    What I like about this site (without overdoing the ego) is that people actually take the time and trouble to pass on thanks.

    That is not what I have been used to writing for other readers down the years.

    Sincere appreciation guys in general terms and thanks to you John for this positive reaction.

  3. Chris says:

    Mal,
    There’ll be no turf action at Lingfield this week: both cards have been moved to the A/W, including the trials.

  4. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Thank Chris for that information….I might have been guilty of letting the Chester three day meeting dominate my attention!

  5. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Cheers for your comment James—–all I ask you to do now is turn the information offered into winnings against the ‘old enemy’!

Comments are closed.