Well, I Declare! 9th October

Well I Declare: 9th to 13th October

Well, I Declare! 9th October

Well, I Declare! 9th October

The NH season gathers pace this week as you will note by the number of winners saddled by certain trainers at the corresponding fixtures twelve months ago. 

Leading trainers last year (Tuesday through Saturday):

(Last week’s highlighted trainers produced 26 winners including those at 20/1, 11/1, 9/1, 9/1, 8/1, 13/2 & 6/1)


FLAT:

6--Mark Johnston (two favourites + 16/1 winner)

6--Richard Hannon (two favourites + winners at 10/1 & 8/1)

4--Richard Fahey (one favourite + 12/1-9/1-7/1)

3--David Barron (one joint favourite and those at 11/1 & 7/2)

3--Alan McCabe (one favourite plus 14/1 & 7/2 winners)

 

NH:

5--Evan Williams (two favourites--all five winners at 13/2 or less)

5--Tim Vaughan (two favourites + winners at 8/1-11/2-4/1)

4--Colin Tizzard (two favourites--all four winners at 9/2 or less)

3--Charlie Longsdon (winners at 7/2-7/4*-1/2*)

 

Highlights towards the end of the week included a 79/1 double for Richard Fahey at York on Friday with Mark Johnston securing a 93/1 treble on the Knavesmire the following day.

Aidan O’Brien weighed in with a 62/1 double at Newmarket on Saturday, with John Dunlop rattling up a 55/1 double at Goodwood on Sunday.

Richard Hannon (as ever) refused to be left out of the headlines having secured a 22/1 double at ’headquarters’ at Newmarket on Saturday, followed up by a 62/1 double at Goodwood on Sunday.

Under the NH banner, there were Friday doubles for Tim Vaughan (11/2 at Newton Abbot) and Charlie Longsdon (11/1 at Carlisle).

Doubles on Saturday came the way of Sue Smith (13/2 at Hexham) and Colin Tizzard (9/2 at Chepstow)

John Flint stole the hours with a 311/1 double at Ffos Las at on Sunday twelve months ago.

 

Day to day analysis: 

I have majored on Saturday’s cards given the quality of racing this week alongside the fact that no Premier League and Championship matches are being played.  There is little distraction from the Sport of Kings this weekend compared to the Ryder Cup (etc) just a fortnight ago!

 

TUESDAY 09/10:

Brighton:

General stats: Mowhoob is John Gosden’s only runner on the Brighton card with the trainer having saddled six of his last thirteen runners at the track to winning effect. 

 

Catterick:

General stats: Sarah Brotherton has ridden three of her four mounts to winning effect at Catterick in recent times whereby the chance of Hab Reeh in the 5.30 event is respected. 

 

Leicester:

General stats: Last Fighter (4.40) is Saeed Bin Suroor’s only representative on the card with the trainer boasting a 38% strike rate at the Oadby circuit.

2.10: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last three winners (16/1 & 5/1) whilst it’s worth noting that Mark was not represented in the 2010 renewal.  Mark has declared his Galileo filly Alta Lilea on this occasion.  Three of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (no winners).

3.10: Six of the last thirteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

3.40: Nine of the last fourteen market leaders having won.  It’s worth noting however, that the other five jollies all finished out of the frame.

4.10: Seven of the last eight winners have carried 8-11 or more which eliminates the bottom six horses if you take the stats seriously.  Four of the last eleven winners were priced at 28/1-20/1-12/1-17/2, whilst seven other outsiders priced between 10/1 and 20/1 reached the frame.  Twelve of the last fourteen market leaders have been beaten, with just six of those beaten favourites having secured toteplacepot positions.

4.40: Five of the last six favourites have won whilst the last nine gold medallists have scored at odds of 3/1 or less.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian has a few runners entered up at Wolverhampton this week, the trainer boasting a strike rate of 43% to date (9/21).

 

WEDNESDAY 10/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a 9/1 double on last year’s corresponding card with the trainer holding six entries at the time of writing this time around.

 

Ludlow:

General stats: Cornwall based trainer Jackie Du Plessis held two declarations on the card at the five-day stage having secured three victories at the course from just five runners thus far. 

Juvenile Maiden Hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Two favourites have won via the last nine contests, during which time three gold medallists have scored at 25/1-20/1-11/1.  Only three of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Mares Novice Hurdle scheduled for 2.40: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, statistics which include two winners.

Three mile Handicap Chase due to be contested at 3.10: Six and seven-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals between them (even split), whilst the same stats apply for horses carrying weights of 11-4 or more.  All six contests have passed without a successful market leader being recorded, whilst two of the seven market leaders have troubled the judge from a toteplacepot perspective.

Two and a half mile Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 4.10: Six-year-olds had won all five renewals until last years when 80/1 and 33/1 representatives let the side down!  The six renewals have produced all manner of results with the gold medallists being returned at 33/1--9/1--11/4--11/4--9/4--5/6 (two successful favourites).  Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, one of the casualties being last year’s 5/6 favourite.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle due to be contested at 4.40: Favourites come into the race on a hat trick having secured three of the six contests thus far.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.10: Evan Williams held two options in the race this year coming into the contest on a hat trick.  Five-year-olds have won four of the five contests thus far.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor stands out from the crowd via recent stats: 2YO: 8/15----3YO: 8/24----older horses: 3/13----General strike rate of: 36.5%

 

Towcester:

General stats: John Quinn held three options on the card on Monday having saddled half (3/6) of his runners at the track to victory during the last five years. 

 

THURSDAY 11/10:

Ayr:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (31%) edges out David O’Meara (30%) relating to potentially represented trainers at Ayr later in the week.

 

Exeter:

General stats: Colin Tizzard held four entries on the card at the time of writing having secured a 13/1 double at the corresponding meeting twelve months ago.

Class 4 novice hurdle event over seventeen furlongs scheduled for 2.20: Eleven of the last thirteen favourites have won this event, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period years was returned at just 100/30.

Novice handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs scheduled for 2.50: All three market leaders had finished out of the frame before last year‘s 2/1 favourite secured the silver medal..

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Three mile beginners’ chase scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first winning favourite following four contests.

Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Eight of the last fourteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the Pond House (Pipe) team have secured four of the last thirteen renewals.  David held two options for the contest at the time of writing.

Conditional jockey’s event over nineteen furlongs scheduled for 4.50: Seven contests have slipped by since the last successful favourite was recorded during which time, winners have been returned at 66/1-16/1-16/1 and all rates down to 4/1.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Course and distance winner Inside Knowledge is Garry Woodward’s only potential runner this week at a track where the trainer boasts a 29% strike rate (4/14).

 

Worcester:

General stats: Tim Vaughan held seven entries for the meeting where the trainer secured a 138/1 treble on this card last year. 

 

FRIDAY 12/10:

Bath:

General stats: Richard Ford and John Mackie offer identical 40% strike rates via 2/5 winners at Bath thus far.

 

Carlisle:

General stats: Tim Walford had two horses entered up in the Honeypot Lane Novice Hurdle event earlier in the week, the trainer having saddled three of his twelve runners at the venue to winning effect in recent times. 

Class 4 seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.55: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whist five favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years.  Ten of the last eleven winners have been returned at 7/2 or less.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.20: Four renewals have slipped by since a successful market leader was recorded following success of the first two market leaders.

Class 3 two-mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.30: Nine of the last ten winners have carried 11-7 or less to victory.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.30: Donald McCain held four options at the time of writing in a race he has secured twice in the last five years.  Four and five-year-olds have won the last nine renewals (‘juniors’ lead 6-3), though just two favourites have won during the study period, a poor ratio in terms of bumper contests.

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Donald McCain is a rare visitor to these parts but his 4/7 ratio is impressive given his two potential runners on Friday. 

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Johnston remains on the ninety-nine winner Mark at Wolverhampton during the last five years but it can only be  matter of time this week before three figures is reached.

 

York:

General stats: John Dunlop and York racecourse went together like strawberries and cream for so many years and it would be wonderful if the trainer could sign off at the Knavesmire in style this weekend. 

Nursery event scheduled for 2.00: Just one favourite has prevailed via the last nine contests. The last four winners have carried 8-12 or less.

Conditions event scheduled for 2.30: Three-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals.  Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one winner.

Class 2 mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 3.05: Seed Bin Suroor held five options at the time of writing in a race he has won twice in the last four years, without a representative in one of the ‘missing’ contests.

Class 4 2YO event scheduled for 4.50: Four favourites have won via six renewals thus far, though the other two market leaders finished out with the washing from a toteplacepot perspective.

 

SATURDAY 13/10:

Chepstow:

General stats: Colin Tizzard secured a 9/2 double on last year’s card.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.55: Paul Nicholls (potentially represented by Sametegal and Far West on this occasion) has saddled three of the last seven winners.  Alan King (only option at the time of writing was Secret Edge) has won the race twice in the last six years by two of his best juvenile hurdlers during the period, namely Katchit and Franchoek.  Alan’s only possible runner was Handazen earlier in the week.

Class 2 handicap hurdle due to be contested at 3.40: Hinterland was the only runner entered by Paul Nicholls at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled four winners of this event during the last decade.  Six renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader being returned before last year’s 13/8 market leader obliged.

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.10: The last nine winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less whilst six contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded.  Evan Williams and Philip Hobbs have both won two renewals during the last five years.

Three mile Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 4.45: The last eight winners have carried 10-10 or less to victory, during which time six eight-year-olds have gained the spoils.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals during which time, both Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have saddled two winners.

 

Hexham:

General stats: John Quinn’s ratio is 7/19 at Hexham, whilst Sue Smith saddled a 13/2 double at the corresponding fixture twelve months ago. 

Class 4 novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.45: Four of the last five winners have scored at odds of 85/40 or less, stats which include two successful market leaders.  Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.

Class 4 handicap chase over two and a half miles due to be contested at 3.20: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, whilst five renewals have slipped past with a successful market leader being recorded.

Maiden hurdle scheduled for 4.30: Five of the six winners to date scored at 4/1 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites.  The other winner was returned at 66/1!

Bumper event scheduled for 5.35: Last year’s winning 85/40 favourite was the first market leader to score in the seven-year history of the scheduled finale.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: It does not seem possible four years has passed since Nicky Henderson last won the Cesarewitch, three of the trainer’s last seven runners having won here on the Rowley Mile.  Nicky’s only entry earlier in the week was Sentry Duty who has finished sixth in this event in each of the last two years.  Kieren Fallon was booked to ride some time ago. 

Group 2 Challenge Stakes scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won four of the last five contests.

Group 1 ‘Middle Park’ scheduled for 2.20: Aidan O’Brien was responsible for four of the twelve five-day declarations, with the trainer having saddled two of the last eight winners of this event.  Aidan won this race with a 25/1 chance last year en route to securing a 93/1 double on the card.

Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes scheduled for 2.55: Three favourites have won during the last six years, during which time Jim Bolger (Dawn Approach and Leitir Mor are Jim‘s potential runners this time around) has claimed four victories.  Aidan O’Brien made seven of the fifteen declarations earlier in the week.

‘Cesarewitch’ scheduled for 3.35: Eight of the last ten winners were sent off at a maximum price of 16/1 which suggests that this marathon event is not as much of a lottery as most believe it to be.  Two successful favourites (both returned at 9/2) were recorded during the study period.  Five of the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.

Group 2 ‘Rockfel’ scheduled for 4.05: To put the favourite stats of the ’Cesarewitch’ in perspective with its average of thirty odd runners, only the same number of market leaders have won this two-year-old event during the same period.   Aidan O’Brien held two options earlier in the week in a race that Aidan has won twice in the last five years.

Group 3 Autumn Stakes scheduled for 4.40: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals, though the other contests were won by horses returned at 33/1-20/1-9/1-8/1.  Montiridge was Richard Hannon’s only potential runner on Monday, the trainer having saddled two of the last nine winners.

Group 3 Darley Stakes scheduled for 5.15: Only one clear favourite has obliged during the last decade, with two of the last four winners having been sent off at 50/1 and 25/1.

 

York:

General stats: William Haggas boasts a 25% strike rate at York, backing the stats up with an LSP reading of thirty-three points. 

Class 3 five furlong handicap scheduled for 2.05: Four favourites have prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade which is a fine record in such a competitive event.  Four-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests.

Listed ‘Rockingham Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Nine of the last ten renewals have been secured by horses scoring at odds of 15/2 or less, stats which include three successful favourites.

Class 2 mixed vintage six furlong handicap scheduled for 3.45: Richard Fahey has saddled silver and bronze medals since securing the previous two renewals.  Two of the last three favourites have won at odds of 13/2 and 6/1.

2YO seven furlong maiden event scheduled for 4.20: Mark Johnston saddled the first two winners at odds of 8/1 & 6/1 before missing last year‘s event.  Mark held two options earlier in the week.

Eighteen furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: Three and four-year-olds have dominated the contest to date with junior raiders leading 3-2 via six contests.  Mark Tompkins has saddled two of the last four winners and the trainer only had Astromagick potentially representing the stable at the time of writing.  The four-year-old was made 3/1 favourite for this event last year when finishing sixth of twelve.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda’s 31% strike rate is backed up by an LSP reading of twenty-four points. 

4 replies
  1. Chris A says:

    Hi Mal

    This comment is not to put in the same bracket as those in an earlier thread, where people were bemoaning the lack of direct tips, but I would be interested to know your thoughts on how you back the trainers noted at the start of article. For example, Messrs Johnston and Hannon will have many runners this week, presumably backing them blind is not the answer?? I guess it is probably the case that these are simply pointers and to take each race as it comes and judge their runners on their own merits….and of course look for additional hints in your Well I Declare summaries each day.

    Thanks for the regular posts, when taken in conjunction with all the other excellent free advice on this site, it is another valuable weapon in my punting armoury.

    Cheers, Chris A

  2. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Cheers guys…..Thanks for your positive comment Bill and yes Chris, you have hit the nail on
    the head in terms of sifting through the runners from the relevant yards. That said, Richard Hannon’s returns to a one point stake last week amounted to 41.95 points (stakes not included) whereby not too much damage (if any) was done.

  3. Chris Worrall says:

    And Mal hits the ground running once again.
    His first horse mentioned by name for the day (Mark Johnston’s Alta Lilea) won the 2.10 Leicester at 9/2

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