What is Pace in Horse Racing? And how to use it.
Another example of pace predicting a winner
There are some racing jurisdictions in the racing world where pace is as fundamental a 'handicapping' tool as you can get. In places like America, even beginner bettors understand the concepts of pace and its likely effect on race outcomes.
Strange, then, that for so long pace has been completely overlooked by UK punters. The main reasons for this are twofold. Or perhaps one-and-a-half-fold, as they're directly connected.
First, there's the almost complete lack of pace data or information. Obviously, this creates a barrier to entry, because any savvy bettor wanting to establish the likely pace scenario in a race has to do all the crunching himself (or herself). It is not a quick or easy task.
And second, related to point one, is the almost blanket lack of understanding around how pace affects the outcome of horse races.
This WILL change in the next few years, as information boundaries are pushed with new racing data publishers challenging the half-asleep establishment content providers. geegeez.co.uk aims to be something of a pioneer in the space and, in today's video post, there is an introduction to the basic concepts of pace, and an example of how pace can be easily assimilated into your betting using the geegeez race cards.
Note, these concepts are not hard to understand, but they are new for most people. In that novelty, some will automatically switch off. Those that embrace the new data are far better armed for the betting battles through the summer particularly. To use a well worn, if unattractive, cliché, having this exclusive information to hand is like taking a gun to a knife fight.
So here's the video. [There's a full screen button in the bottom right corner, which will help].
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I hope it mostly made sense, and that you can see the value in the information even if it hasn't automatically registered completely with you.
If you're not already a Gold subscriber - meaning you have access to this valuable information - you can register here.
To upgrade a free account to Gold, click here.
And if you have any questions on the subject of pace, please leave a comment below, and I'll do what I can to answer.
It's nice to have something a bit different to think about, and this pace information is available in very few places currently, so you really do have a head start on almost all punters. Get to grips with it, and use it to your advantage!
Matt
Very helpful video Matt, I am really struggling to get my head around pace and this video is very instructive. Just one point however I did find the sound very low and had to hold a speaker to my ear. I am a bit hard of hearing but can listen to most videos easily and I found this one not easy to hear. All in all though Matt a great help and any further information on this subect would be appreciated.
Hi Tony
I’m glad you got something from the video. Regarding the sound, forgive me if you already did this, but it is possible to turn the sound up on the actual video. It’s quite loud and clear this end… (Apologies if that was the first thing you did!)
Best,
Matt
Hi Matt,
That was a great in site to the pace factor, I found it very interesting and helpful and will be a great addition to my analysis of races…
I was wondering wether we currently have access to back cards with this info on..
all The best
mick
Hi Mick
I’m glad you enjoyed the video. Sadly, there are no historical pace reports. My advice is to take a few minutes to look at a couple of the flat handicaps each day and try to predict how they’d have been run. Then check the results to see how you did.
Remember, horses don’t always do what we think they will, especially if we’re relying on jockeys to do it! 😉
Best,
Matt
using patternform has really improved my betting which is trading by backing early paced horses and then laying in running.i usually back about ten mins before off having checked a few stats and then put in a lay bet (to be keep in running) to get me ten percent profit.my strike rate is very high.
“Pace makes the race”,is an old saying in American racing. An unchallenged leader can often win,as it dictates the pace. Leaders whose speed is challenged often tire suddenly, and are swallowed up. Nick Mordin had a simple points formula based on horses last 3 runs,to determine who would lead or be prominent early. Years ago someone I knew, bet on the little jumps season when the ground is usually fast. Any race run under Average time,he would note horses who led during the race. He called these horses “Resolute pacesetters”. Over jumps quite a lot of top horses are prominent racers. Arkle &GrandCanyon often made all, as did Persian War. Tom Segal I believe from study of his tips, often uses going and pace to make his selections. He usually picks2 in races such asAyr GoldCup,Portland I am guessing seeking where the pace is likely to be on each side of the track.
Very good video Matt,
best,
Francis
A very informative report Matt, pace adds a whole new perspective on the selection process. I wasn’t sure what the numbers and percentages meant prior to watching your video however I now understand fully and will be definitely be experimenting with the race cards.
Terry
Great video Matt. Like most things in life and racing it raised more questions than answers. Any future guidance gratefully received eg trying to calculate when to back a front runner to make all and win or when to back a hold up horse to come late. Someone above mentioned Mordin. Pace has always been import but until now there has not been an efficient way to put the theories of Mordin and others into practice until now. Any additional insight you can give will be gratefully received. Thanks for the video because I knew the pace reports were potential gold dust but had no idea how to interpret the numbers.
Pace is a big form factor here in Australia as races are of shorter distances, if you know the pace of a race then you can compile your speed map, it’s information all punters need to be aware of, great work.
Hi Matt very informative video certainly gave me food for thought. If I could ask a question though, do you know of any book that gives information as to comparing courses i.e. Brighton similar to Epsom along those lines as I often spend ages checking whether a horse runs better right-handed or left-handed and type of course etc.
Thanks for the excellent information.
Fred
Hi Fred
Really good question, and I don’t know of a book that does that. However, there are various websites which try to characterize the similarities/differences between racecourses, including – soon – geegeez. I’ll email you the spreadsheet we’re looking at introducing as part of the next phase of the Gold project.
The right handed / left handed element is also something we’re looking to bring in, though there are a few anomalies with that (when courses have a straight and a xxx-handed variant of the same race distance, e.g. a mile at Newbury and Ascot).
Best,
Matt
First of all I agree with the first comment, can’t hear a thing. Secondly with all these tools it looks like a case of too much information. By the time you’ve been through them all it would make it a full time job to do just a few races a day. Wouldn’t it be easier for you to do all the calculations, you are the expert after all, and just send the potential results to everyone based on your findings? This would then undoubtably make you the best and most popular tipster on the internet and you could charge accordingly. This would also give a pretty good idea of what wasn’t going to win, which is more up my street as I’m trading on Betfair
Regards
Paul
Paul, with respect, that is NOT what geegeez is about. The whole point is that we are seeking to provide an industry-leading toolkit.
We also have tipping services – Stat of the Day, Double Dutch and The Shortlist – for those who just want the answers.
Nobody uses all of the tools, but it’s great fun experimenting with different things and finding out what works for you.
It’s not for everyone, but I will absolutely no way ever go to being a tipping house. I respect readers’ intelligence far too much to do that.
Matt
p.s. as a trader, you might be interested in the pace analysis angles, which highlight horses that are expected to lead and, therefore, probably trade shorter in running.