It's become an annual event now, dear reader, and I will continue my somewhat askance view of the world's favourite race today.
At 4.15 tomorrow, 40 horses and riders will set out to hop over 30 fences whilst traveling four and a half miles. Most will fail to complete, but one will win.
In today's post, I'll tell you why I think your horse can't win. The beauty of such a piece is that I'm guaranteed to be 97.5% correct! 😉
So, here we go:
Madison Du Berlais (FR) - Too much weight, French bred
Mon Mome (FR) - Too much weight, French bred
Vic Venturi (IRE) - Too much weight, never won in a chase field bigger than eight runners
Black Apalachi (IRE) - Too much weight
Joe Lively (IRE) - Too much weight, never won in a chase field bigger than ten runners
Don't Push It (IRE) - Too much weight, only one 3m+ win, no Graded or 'National' wins, usually held up
Comply Or Die (IRE) - Too much weight, questionable completion record (although obviously did win here!)
Tricky Trickster (IRE) - Too much weight, too young, too inexperienced
Niche Market (IRE) - Too much weight?
Made In Taipan (IRE) - Too much weight?, never won beyond 2m1f in a chase!
Dream Alliance - Too much weight?, poor completion record, needs it softer
Cloudy Lane - Too much weight?
Nozic (FR) - Too much weight?, French bred, only one win beyond 3m
My Will (FR) - Too much weight?, French bred
Pablo Du Charmil (FR) Too much weight?, French bred, never won beyond 2m2f, never won a chase in a field bigger than 7 runners!
Ballyholland (IRE) - No Graded form, not won beyond 2m6f
Backstage (FR) - French bred, only nine chase runs, no Graded form, too slow?
Beat The Boys (IRE) - Too slow?, failed to complete in six of last eight runs (won the other two!)
Preists Leap (IRE) - Too slow?, wants it softer, completed last year without ever threatening
Snowy Morning (IRE) - Perfect profile for the race, slight worry about how long since running over a stamina trip
Can't Buy Time (IRE) - Won 5 of last 10 chases, four beyond 3 miles, live player, McCoy on wrong one?!
Big Fella Thanks - Makes jumping mistakes, probably not quick enough
State of Play - Good Aintree form, just the one run this term (a 'P') which is a negative, but a player at best
Character Building (IRE) - Never won above Class 2 before, I've gone off this one (though my bet was placed long since)
Ellerslie George (IRE) - Probably too slow though did win a Listed race over 3m2f, dark horse at 100/1
Eric's Charm (FR) - French bred, poor completion record (though won last two), never won above Class 2
King Johns Castle (IRE) - 2nd two years ago though never WON beyond 2m3f, place prospects again
Conna Castle (IRE) - Never won beyond 2m4f, not won for two years
Ballyfitz - Not won a chase in a field bigger than 7 (won 24 runner hurdle), never won above Class 2, poorish completion record
Ollie Magern - Never won in a field bigger than 9, over the top
Arbor Supreme (IRE) - No Graded form, probably just not good enough
Maljimar (IRE) - Never won beyond 2m5f, moderate completion record
The Package - Too young, too inexperienced, (still feared!)
Piraya (FR) - French bred, too young, never won beyond 2m5f
Irish Raptor (IRE) - No Graded form, poor completion record, (but has won over these fences)
Cerium (FR) - French bred, 5th last year, 8th in Gold Cup this year, never won beyond 2m3f
Palypso De Creek (FR) - French bred, too young
Hello Bud (IRE) - Scottish National winner, snuck in here off light weight, dark'un
Flintoff (USA) - Never won a chase in a bigger field than 8 runners, never won above Class 3
Royal Rosa (FR) - French bred, never won a chase in a bigger field than 3 runners (!), no decent chase form, poor completion record
So there you have it. Green horses are my fancies, orange my fears, the rest I'll not fret about (careless?!)...
Who do you like for the big race? Vote top right and/ or comment below!
Whatever you're on, the very best of luck. And let's hope for a fantastic race!