Back to business today, dear reader, and the business of finding winners and reviewing horse racing systems.
In a moment, I'll look at today's racing, where - as ever - I'll be trying to use the draw to weedle out a worthy wager.
But first, let's take a look at another racing system. From today until the end of the month, I'll be putting Winners To Losers through its paces. To save my ailing digits, it will hereafter be known as W2L.
So what is W2L? It's a laying system, based on a set of seven simple rules. It is likely that there will not be too many runners, as evidenced today, when there are none. There might be a couple tomorrow however, depending on certain criteria, so I'll obviously keep you posted.
What I can tell you is that up to the end of August, there had been 306 system qualifiers (1.25 runners per day), and 276 were beaten. That's 9 out of 10 getting beaten.
Of course, the number of horses being beaten is only material when weighed against the laying prices. Average lay odds are around the 11/2 mark, meaning you might expect to lay at 13/2 (or 7.5).
This being the case, the average return would be around 2.5 points for every ten lays.
Taking a longer term view, and the sales page states that these returns have been replicated since 2005, with an 89.1% success rate in that period.
Using my trusty racing system software, I was able to enter similar rules, and can confirm that these results would have been consistent going back several years further (I went back as far as 2000).
So, on paper, the system looks very good, and I can't wait to test it out here on the blog.
I should also add that the manual which supports the system rules is full of clear instructions on how to check for lays, and I agree with the author that you can find any qualifiers in ten minutes or so.
You do not need to track the pre-race market to get your bets on, though of course if you're able to spend some time following the market, then your effort will usually be rewarded by laying at closer to SP. Even if you can't do this, adding 20% to SP for all runners still shows a commendable profit of around £10,000 to £100 stakes this year alone.
The manual also shows you a number of ways to lay closer to SP: some of these are intermediate to advanced approaches, but this is a guide for all levels of punter.
If you want to have a look at the system ahead of review time, then
click here to read the usual sales hyperbole.
Be sure to check back over the next fortnight to see how W2L fares.
The publishers, Racing & Leisure, also run a sports and horseracing advisory service. This service is called TAPS, and is a separate service from the W2L system highlighted above.
TAPS stands for The Alternative Punters Service, and I will also be receiving the daily information from them. Today, they have put up a golfer to back each way in the Viking Classic, a US PGA Tour event scheduled to start tomorrow evening. He's a 33/1 shot and the staking advice is minimum stakes, which is fair enough.
If you're interested in finding out more about TAPS, you can read that here.
Back to today's racing, and there's draw biases to be manipulated in our favour once again, at Beverley and Sandown. High in the sprints is the order of the day at both tracks, so let's see what that means to us...
1.30 Ubi Ace has the best form so far, though the whole field remains unexposed. He is also very well drawn in 10 of 12, and must run close. Placepot banker material for me.
2.00 Now we're talking! A 16 runner 5f selling handicap for 2yo's. It doesn't get any better than this!!! Seriously, these are the kind of races when the draw can help massively (on the basis that all other evidence is either contradictory, circumstantial, or non-existent!).
One of my rules of thumb is to back top weights in nurseries, which brings in the well drawn (14 of 16) Just The Lady. She's back to her class (may not have handled Wolves last time) and, if the soggy ground doesn't do for her, she could go trap to line.
Sale Or Return had the worst of the draw (1 of 12) here last time, and now has the best of it (16 of 16). She has a tendency to fluff the start, which obviously won't help, but she could be interesting at a decent price.
But for the winner I'll go with Lemon Dash. She's from an in form stable, has a cracking draw and the speed to avail herself of it, and a reliable pilot. At around the 8/1 mark, she'll do for me.
For tiny stakes, it might be worth perming these three in an exacta.
2.35 Kingship Spirit is a mile clear of the rest on form, but has a tough draw to overcome and is unproven on the ground. Moreover, I find it a tad curious that Jeremy Noseda would choose to bring him here for a run... Whilst I won't be laying him (probably!), I sure won't be backing him either.
So what to take against the odds on hotpot? With those that have run (excluding the fav) showing little or now't, I'm siding each way with a debutante from a good draw: Wunder Strike.
The Wallace stable has had an excellent season, and this one has some very interesting bloodlines, being by the same US sire as Curlin, the reigning Breeders Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup champion (and winner of £5,000,000 in prize money!).
3.10 And yet another 5f sprint! At this point, I should probably put a caveat in that sometimes, when the ground is very testing, they go far side, and low draws have an edge(!). However, I'm sticking with my high draw guns here.
Weet A Surprise ran a close 2nd a few runs back on heavy ground at Haydock, and - from the optimum box - could give 50/1 backers an adventure for their shekels.
But the one for me is ground specialist, Select Committee, who may be bidding to give his trainer JJ Quinn, and me, a Beverley double. The negative is the jockey, who is a worrying 0 from 28 in sprint races this season, although he has ridden a handful of winners over longer trips. I'll take my chance nevertheless.
2.20 Ten runners for a five furlong nursery, and they'll be trying to hog the far rail, as ever. It stands to reason, then, that if you're drawn against that rail you have the best theoretical chance, all other things being equal. Sonhador, from the wily Winkorth yard (+£97.91 to £1 this season), has the prime berth, and should not be dismissed. At an each way price, I'll look no further.
2.55 The top four are all complete dogs and, even with the draw assistance, will need to start a good five minutes before the rest to get home in front. I'll pass, though if you want a cursory selection (as if I hadn't already given you enough reasons to curse me today!), I'd side with Night Prospector from the stable of my man, Ron Harris. He's got two in the race, so the other - Back In The Red - will doubtless prevail.
That's it from me - ciao pronto!
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