Wolverhampton Placepot Picks, 1st July 2013

Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

A fair enough return yesterday at Uttoxeter, and another successful and profitable foray into the wonderful world of the placepot. Pretty uninspiring Monday fare today, but let's have a crack at Wolverhampton all the same. We'll try to keep it tight as well ('try' being the operative word).

2.15 - Leg 1: The safe options here are Fossa and Eastern Dragon, both of which have good recent form. Fossa has yet to run here at Wolverhampton, and will hopefully handle the track all right.

In an open enough contest, I'll also take a trio at prices on B: Transluscent, Brynford and Moe's Place.

A - 2 (Eastern Dragon), 6 (Fossa)
B - 5 (Moe's Place), 8 (Transluscent), 9 (Brynford)

2.45 - Leg  2: The three-year-olds look like the ones to focus on, with narrow preference for Saga Lout over Coconut Kisses. The latter will prefer this five to the six she raced over last time, but the former has track and trip form and ought to go close.

A - 5 (Saga Lout), 6 (Coconut Kisses)

3.15 - Leg 3: The Godolphin horse is respected, but Ocean Storm should at least make the first two, and will hopefully win.

A - 4 (Ocean Storm)

3.45 - Leg 4: This is a messy race, with the best horses out of form. Light From Mars is the safest pair of hands, with course/distance form of 122126, the '6' coming in a Listed event for which he was only a 12/1 shot. That was as recently as March of this year and, while he's shown nothing since, a return to the sunny climes of Dunstall Park (for him, at least!) may well do the trick.

I'm tempted to bank on him, but that's too ballsy so I'll add some B ballast, in the form of Mister Green and Dubawi Phantom.

A - 3 (Light From Mars)
B - 2 (Dubawi Phantom), 6 (Mister Green)

4.15 - Leg 5: A lop-sided market in this maiden, and the exposed White Month could make things interesting if missing the frame. He hasn't really improved in his last couple of starts, and the question is can three horses perform to a higher level. I'd certainly not be wanting to back him to win, but it's maybe wishful thinking to get him out of the frame. Nevertheless, faint heart never won fair maiden, so I'll take him on A, together with the sure to improve, Aiyana. There's loads of stamina on the dam side, and this lass was only beaten four and a half lengths on her debut last time. The step up in trip could eke further progress.

Rock God and Could Be have both had plenty of chances, and today might be their day. B players.

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A - 8 (White Month), 9 (Aiyana)
B - 3 (Could Be), 7 (Rock God)

4.45 - Leg 6: The lucky last. A three year old handicap. Great. Bantam has decent form in this context, and she's been screaming for the extra quarter mile. She must run on well here if she doesn't get outpace by the less galloping track after races at Newbury and Lingfield (turf).

If I was confident the remaining eight would all run, I might bank on her. But with the prospect of a non-runner carrying us down to two places, that's too much of a risk because it doesn't allow for a place lay on Bantam (we'd have to lay three places, despite placepot only paying on two places - nasty third place scenario there!)

King Muro has track form and is taking a fair drop in class here. He might be in the mix at a tempting price. And Portmonarch and Revise will both be seen in a better light today, especially the latter, for whom the step up in trip and the return to Wolves could assist.

A - 5 (Bantam)
B - 2 (King Muro), 3 (Revise), 4 (Portmonarch)

Just A's - 2 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 1 = 8 bets

All picks - 5 x 2 x 1 x 3 x 4 x 4 = 480 bets

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Wolverhampton placepot picks

Wolverhampton placepot picks

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3 replies
  1. David says:

    More good work on the placepot, Matt!

    Speaking just before the final leg and being entirely selfish, I’m kinda hoping Bantam missies out on the places so long as nos. 2,3 and 4 do the job for the Bs. My reckoning is the dividend will be much, much better without the Fav.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      It was a miserable dividend today, David, alas. Sometimes it goes that way. The challenge with the placepot is that we need to win twice: once to get the horses placed, and once to get the RIGHT horses placed!

      Matt

  2. hilarity says:

    Agreed. Thought the dividend last Friday at Yarmouth was a bonus given the results, today was the polar opposite.

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