Worcester Placepot Picks, 28th August 2013

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Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

I'm as out of form as a big amorphous blob that's been dismissed from his class (note to self, 'out of form' similes are tricky), and things don't get much easier today. Priceless Art, one of the geegeez geegees, runs at Worcester this afternoon and I'm headed there to see him. So that's where the placepot will be focused too. We start at 2.20...

2.20 - Leg 1: Only five runners, but all of them have some sort of chance, as betting of 4/1 the outsider in places attests. Papradon is likely to have this run to suit: he should lead and that's not a bad tactic at this track. But his record at this lofty Class 3 level is 92, with the 2 achieved on the much tighter Stratford track. He's unlikely to get away this time, in my view.

Whistling Senator represents McCoy and Jonjo, but is another for whom the class may be a ceiling. Indeed, in 21 prior runs, he's never raced at this level before. True, he comes here on the hat-trick, but wins in soft Class 5 and Class 4 affairs are no comparison to some talented oppo today.

Victor Leudorum looks like the one to me. If he doesn't get outpaced (possible), he has conditions perfectly in his favour, with a course and distance win, five wins on this going, and two in this grade. As a last time out winner too, he's hard to overlook.

Forever My Friend is easily the best backed horse in the race, but he's going to have stay further than any of his five wins here, and against better class horses than any of those wins (all achieved in Classes 4, 5 and 6). I don't think he's the obvious play in here today.

That leaves Highway Code. This young fellow is stepping up in trip beyond two and a half miles for the first time and, whilst there might be a stamina doubt, he's plodded on in recent starts like he wants this sort of trip. His third to Finger Onthe Pulse is about the best piece of recent form in the race, and I give him a strong chance. I'm taking him and Victor against the other trio, and that might be an early bath scenario the way things have been going; but I'm struggling to justify including the class risers against established form at this level.

A - 1 (Victor Leudorum), 3 (Highway Code)

2.50 - Leg 2: The class act here is The Cockney Mackem and, despite a few question marks about his attitude recently, he looks a sound A bet. Specifically, he's been placed in eight of his nine runs in this grade; ditto at this two mile (ish) trip. Although he is hard to win with (no wins from his eight chase starts, for instance), he has been placed second on five of those runs and third on two more.

I don't really like banking in seven runner races, still less in novice chases, but he does look a sound conveyance (only one tumble in those eight chase starts), and he's classy: he was second in the 2012 Byrne Group Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. That is a Grade 3 race, and he followed that up with a Grade 2 third place. Because he's not won, he retains his novice status, and he can show his class here.

A - 6 (The Cockney Mackem)

3.20 - Leg  3: A curious enough spot for a bumper is race three, but it's something of a speciality here at Worcester, so we'll have to lump it. Luckily for us, we have solid course and distance winner, Anger Management, to keep us on the straight and narrow. I'd expect him to at least be placed, despite the winners' penalty.

Cole Harden won his only start, though that was on heavy ground at Sedgefield. How this son of Westerner will fare on much quicker turf remains to be seen, but he's unbeaten and his dad's kids have gone well enough on faster. Snapchat has two places to his name, both on slightly sharper tracks than this, and it's possible the more testing circuit here will play to his staying power. He could easily run into the frame, and has been nibbled in the betting to do so.

The rest probably have a lot to do, though both Western Way and Multiview looked extremely green behind Anger Management last time before staying on into third and fourth. It's possible the other three in the race were dogs, but both this pair are capable of better, for sure.

A - 1 (Anger Management)
B - 5 (Snapchat)

3.50 - Leg 4: Ah, the good stuff. A selling handicap hurdle! Again, this revolves around a single horse, and that's Pindar. Consistent in this lowly grade, and a winner at the track last time, he's very short to repeat the dose. Basically, he likes to lead, which he was able to do last time. Today, there are two other horses - Bahira and Argaum - who also want to go on, meaning he might well be compromised. Moreover, he'd been beaten 22 lengths-plus on his two prior hurdle starts, and on the one before that he was ten lengths behind the re-opposing On The Feather. He's rated 77 and I don't think he's any value at all here. I'm limping him into B, but I'll take A's against him.

Argaum has been placed in eleven of his 25 hurdle starts, winning three. That's a much more solid level of consistency than most here can boast, and though he too could be compromised by an early pace battle, he at least has both consistency and price on his side. A.

On The Feather has form to beat the favourite, and has gone well for inexperienced riders. Conditions look ideal, and he ought to be in the mix. And the one which might benefit most from a cut-throat pace scrap is Chilbury Hill, a ten year old with plenty of win and place form at this level, on this ground, in this grade.

A - 1 (On The Feather), 5 (Argaum)
B - 2 (Chilbury Hill), 10 (Pindar)

4.20 - Leg 5: And so to Priceless Art's race. Wayward Glance is the strong favourite, and he should make the frame. He's got form at the track, trip and grade, and is in reasonable form. With three places to go at here, he's hard to leave out.

Priceless Art himself is 112111 in Class 5, but he's just not been reliable lately. I will (obviously) be backing him today but am leaving him out of my placepot perm.

Wayward Glance is a banker here, and may be a place lay if the 'pot looks like paying a few quid (unlikely, in truth).

A - 1 (Wayward Glance)

4.55 - Leg 6: Just five go here, and always the chance of a non-runner making it win only. On that basis, I'll go a bit deeper than normal, in case of the aforementioned late absentee.

Letsby Avenue is a fairly strong jolly, and might bid to make all. He's got form at similar trips and ground, and this slightly longer route might eke out a bit more improvement. In any case, he's on the hat-trick, so comes here in top form.

Of the rest, Red Not Blue looks to have optimal conditions - twice a winner here in small fields - and AP McCoy gets on again for the first time since winning two races on him this time last year.

Ogee and So Fine are less obvious contenders and will comprise a rare C ticket, with options to lay various outcomes or back exactas, should we have used a B already (a situation which kills any C lines straight away).

A - 2 (Red Not Blue), 3 (Letsby Avenue)
C - 1 (Ogee), 5 (So Fine)

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Just A's - 2 x 1 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 = 8 bets

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Worcester placepot picks

Worcester placepot picks

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1 reply
  1. Chris Worrall says:

    Best of luck to both you and Priceless Art this afternoon. Hopefully you’ll both get home unscathed! 😀

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