Yarmouth Placepot Picks, 4th July 2013

Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

Five out of six yesterday, including a couple of decent - and fancied - winners. But no good from a placepot perspective, with e divvy being moderate as well. Today, I'm going for a 'smash up' at Yarmouth. It often happens there, due to the track being so bad!

2.10 - Leg 1: We're going to need to conserve some lines for later, so I'm taking the favourite against the field here. He's a cheap place lay for insurance types, but the key thing is that he might be underbet due to the '7' next to his name. That's in stark contrast to the '33' of the second favourite, and the royal blue jacket on unraced Mathematics.

His debut run would normally be good enough to place here if replicated, and a step forward would see him go close to winning. Let's hope Speedfiend lives up to his name! I'm going to chuck in Mappa Mundi on B, as I thought he ran a very nice race on debut.

A - 7 (Speedfiend)
B - 4 (Mappa Mundi)

2.40 - Leg  2: This ought to be between the frustrating if consistent Gin Time and Flora Medici. My Little Friend could trouble them if getting an easy lead, while Ivan B surely can't win. It's win only and I'll take the three with any realistic chance across A and B.

A - 3 (Flora Medici), 4 (Gin Time)
B - 2 (My Little Friend)

3.10 - Leg 3: I reckon this fast seven will be perfect for Levi Draper, but whether the track will is another question. He's the likeliest winner without question, and earns sole A status on the basis. But I'll shore up on B with known local form, in the shape of First Class and Afkar. The latter might be taken on for the lead by Paphos and Diplomatic, which could compromise his chance, but Levi Draper should be sitting on their tails in any case.

A - 4 (Levi Draper)
B - 1 (Afkar), 6 (First Class)

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3.40 - Leg 4: Despite the big field, Imaginary Diva actually looks really solid here. She's twice a course and distance winner, is in fine form, goes well in the grade, and has won twice for the jockey. She's A material, and I'll take a chance on A alongside her with an unlikely placepot type for many tickets in Sir Geoffrey. He's dropped a very long way down the handicap since his career high win off 80, but was good enough to prevail this time last year off 68. A peg of just 50 here is a penalty kick on that form... if he can find that form.

Luke Morris is booked, which suggests he's fancied, as does the money around for him, and this is not a race that would take a lot of winning, that much is for certain.

We'll go to B here too, and chuck in Lord Buffhead, Charming and Whiskey Junction in a race with a lot of early pace.

A - 2 (Imaginary Diva), 7 (Sir Geoffrey)
B - 1 (Charming), 3 (Lord Buffhead), 5 (Whiskey Junction)

4.10 - Leg 5: Odeliz is an obvious one here, just getting up over a mile in a race which has worked out well, and seemingly gagging for this extra furlong. Freeport will appreciate it too, and comes here in fine form after a shared win and a second so far this season. He's pleasing connections at home, I can report. There are dangers further down the list in a race which might cause us a degree of head-scratching by 4.15, but I've used up plenty of bullets already, alas.

Super Cookie might outrun her odds from a low weight and with form at this specialist trip, but I don't like her enough for A, and I'm not playing B's here.

A - 3 (Odeliz), 4 (Freeport)

4.40 - Leg 6: Which brings us to the 'lucky last', a five runner handicap which could go win only with one more non-runner (already two down). Willow Beck was green as the grass she wasn't running on last time when winning at Wolverhampton over three-eighths shorter. She's bred for this trip, but what she'll make of the track after that amateurish showing the last day is an unknown.

In the circumstances, it seems sensible to side with Hydrant, who is a much more reliable - if possessing less potential - proposition. He may very well make every yard.

If one does come out, you can save by making some exactas on the remaining trio of runners, obviously loaded towards Willow Beck winning (if that makes sense).

A - 1 (Hydrant)

Just A's - 1 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 8 bets

All picks - 2 x 3 x 3 x 5 x 2 x 1 = 180 bets

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Yarmouth Placepot

Yarmouth Placepot

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4 replies
  1. Avatar
    Spike says:

    Hi Matt
    Thanks for the great selections but any chance of giving us a bit more time before the start of the first race when you post the placepot?.

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Spike

      Sometimes, the pressures of work mean it is later rather than earlier. The nature of the bet is also that we need to check for non-runners and market movers in order to have the best coverage. For instance, it was a market move for Sir Geoffrey that made me take a much closer look at its chance and nominate it on A. You’ll know that it won at 12/1 and you’ll know why I included it as well.

      If I’d done my research at 9am say, I wouldn’t have included that horse.

      The surest way to know when the placepot has been posted is to follow @geegeez_uk – every geegeez post gets auto-tweeted to there.


      p.s. all that said, I was especially late today and do normally try to get it up by midday, whenever possible.

  2. Avatar
    David says:

    This could turn out to be a good day!! Only 309.66 left in the last from a 66268 pool. Makes it worth a small place lay to cover costs, too. Fingers crossed Willow Beck goes off favourite and blows it!

  3. Avatar
    Josh W says:

    well done again Matt. I was just on the As so didnt get any of the pot – however I did help myself to an EW bet in Sir Geoffrey at 12s after your write up, which made it a good afternoon!

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