York Ebor Meeting Day Three Live Blog

York Ebor Live Blog

York Ebor Live Blog

It's live blog time from 1pm, but to whet your appetite for the live setup, here are some bits and pieces from our 'Race Analysis Report' testing (piped directly into the page, so you can play with the variables - do note that a number of items are not working quite as they should be though!)

As well as that, there are some great trends and analysis for the two big races, courtesy of Gavin Priestley's consistently excellent Festival Trends offering.

1300 - Hi, and welcome to live bloggie! Over the next four hours, we'll enjoy six races from York, some banter, news on other horses, a tilt at the placepot, a word on a free bet that runs out today, and your questions answered. Phew!

This will hopefully be a dialogue, meaning I need your questions, comments and wins/losses. So, do please leave a comment at the bottom or tweet on @geegeez_uk to help me feel like I'm not on my own here.

Let's start with... what are you backing today? Best bet? Big priced possibles? Let us know!!!

1305 - So, what's happening below?! Good question, and I'm glad you asked 😉

This is one of the new features soon to be unleashed on geegeez. It's an 'at a glance' traffic light view of the race, showing which horses have performed best for the main factors of going, class, distance, course and field size.

Do note that class includes all Class 1 races (from Listed to Group 1) in that class; and that distance isn't fully working yet (it's only including exact matches, like 5f 9yds). Ignore the right hand column - not ready yet.

Sorry, also, the places tab currently includes all top four finishes and excludes wins! Being worked on and will be sorted by the time we actually go live.

So, yes, a partially working beta, but one that is still surprisingly helpful!

Tweet@MattBisogno chancery and shea shea for me today, ,chancery a little extra weight but I ,ll take a chance

Mick likes Party Line in the first. Alas, that one's a non-runner..! What else is fancied there?

1310 - I'm having a crack at the placepot again this afternoon (glutton for punishment), and the picks for that can be found here. If you fancy having a crack at the placepot, or any totepool bet, do note that Betfred are offering a free £10 bet on the Ebor tomorrow to anyone betting £10 or more on the tote at York today. There's a link on that placepot page.

Comments - Paul is looking out for Tepmokea at a price - been well backed, so someone else likes it too! Ian thinks middle to high will prevail, which is interesting because I have a suspicion that the far rail might be the place today (going stick slightly slower against the stands - near - rail).

Chris and Robson are enjoying the new reports - just wait til they're finished guys. Serious tool, I hope! And Rab just wanted to say hi. Hi Rab!

Colin's in with a shout for York Glory and Jim (hi!) is on Robin Hood's Bay but wanted that third place for his each way tickle.

Non-Runner Update: These nags won't be winning, because they're not running...

13:55 2 Hanoverian Baron, 7 Party Line

15:40 1 Borderlescott, 4 Kingsgate Choice

16:55 7 Ayaar, 12 Enobled

1319 - 35 minutes til we're underway, and it's a race that looks like weedling the placepot down a fair bit, irrespective of what happens. Sir Michael Stoute has a fine record and Gospel Choir might be the one, with Ryan Moore driving. The Race Analysis Report (RAR, perhaps, for short) gives a shout to Kiama Bay and Rio's Rosanna as well.

1322 - Want something else in development? We're really spoiling you this afternoon. How about the Pace Analysis Report (PAR, perhaps, for short)? This is the raw content page and, as you can see, we have a few (ok, a lot!) of runs where the pace comment hasn't been accommodated yet. But you get the idea...

Pace Analysis Report beta

Those horses that might race close to the pace in the opener are Gospel Choir, Tepmokea and Scatter Dice.

Comments - Our own Badly Drawn Horse man, Ben Aitken, is risking Tepmokea, covered with Gospel Choir in the first. Meanwhile, Colin's been on again as he likes the look at Short Squeeze later on.

Josh W also a fan of Tepmokea, and Paul has been kind enough to give us his horses to swerve (because he's backed them!) -  Ahzeemah, Danadana, Swiss Spirit and Majestic Moon. Good luck Paul!

1334 - Five minute break here. Putting placepots on! Feel free to ask questions as well as make comments etc and I'll try to answer any burning ones for you...

1340 - OK, placepots placed. So to the first race. See below the first RAR.

1.55 York - Sky Bet Handicap

Race analysis tab - change the going to 'good to soft' and the runners to '12-15'

Sir Michael Stoute has won a couple in recent times, and has the lightly raced Gospel Choir. He's got top weight and hasn't run for a year, but I still think he'll be hard to beat. He won first time out last year, and might just be a bit better than a handicapper in due course.

Winterlude is equally unexposed and steps up in trip. He has much less weight and could run well. Of the more hardened 'cappers, Rio's Rosanna (John B likes this one too) and Kiama Bay are a couple I'd keep on the right side of, while many of you are fans of Tepmokea.

1348 - First show in and Gospel Choir is short at 9/2, while Winterlude has been trimmed from 13/2 to 6/1. After that pair, Rio's Rosanna and Chancery are both 8/1, Castilo Del Diablo (totally unfancied by me, so probably wins) is 9/1, and it's 10/1 bar, bringing in Kiama Bay, Scatter Dice and White Nile.

Tepmokea is 14's, having been 33/1 early.

Comments - David M is in for Sole Power in the big one. He reckons it's a knocking each way bet.

1350 - Track... With the 20mm of rain overnight, it will be very interesting to see a) how much mud is kicked up, b) how quick the races are, and c) where on the track the jockeys elect to race. All, or at least some, will be revealed five minutes hence...

Comments - Rab is back with a very brave straight line placepot selection (two in the last, actually), and he's on #1 - Gospel Choir - in the first.

1353 - Market update. 4/1 Gospel, 7/1 Winter, 8/1 bar. Money for Kiama Bay and Scatter Dice, both in to 9's.

1355 - They're off! Good luck to all in the opener. 7/2 Gospel Choir! (Dirty burglar bookies!)

1358 - It's David O'Meara again!!! Chancery cruises into it and wins, from Rio's Rosanna and the fast finishing Kiama Bay. The last name takes all placepot tickets through... just!

1400 - Full Result:

1st 3 Chancery (USA) 7/1
2nd 14 Rio's Rosanna (IRE) 9/1
3rd 11 Kiama Bay (IRE) 8/1

Tweet - @johnfarrell310 @geegeez_uk Betting on betfair saying that sole power cant win would you share that view??

- He obviously CAN win, but the question is a) will he, and b) does his price offer any value? The answer is a) maybe, though not for me, and b) no, not at all. I expect he might drift before the race, and Slade Power and Spirit Quartz would be a couple that might shorten, based on the ground.

Tweet - @DennehyPat @geegeez_uk gospel choir, times up, ground totally against sole power so Swiss spirit in the nunthorpe

- Unlucky with Gospel Choir. Looked to have every chance, but couldn't quicken. Not sure Swiss Spirit wants is softer than good either...!!

Comments - Pete Williams is asking if he's allowed to be smug about backing that winner, Chancery, at 14/1. Hell yeah, Pete!!! Well done sir. 😀

1408 - Going update - This on twitter from Simon Rowlands, head or R&D at Timeform,

"Official time is 2:32.86 and a quickish last 3f of ~36.8s (103.8% fin spd). Good ground horses should be OK."

1410 - Today's placepot pool is £324,930. After the 27% take out, that leaves a net pool of £237,198.90 to be equally divided between the winners. £88,738.94 still in the pool after the first leg. Loooooong way to go.

1412 - OK, it's time to take a look at the next race, the Lonsdale Cup. After that, I'll have news on some other horses... See below the next RAR... Yes, just down there. Scroll on, dear reader. 😉

2.30 York - Lonsdale Cup

Race analysis tab - change the going to 'good to soft'

Key Lonsdale Cup Trends

Killer stat: 14 of the last 15 winners had raced 2-5 times that TURF flat season

Age
• Not many 3yo's have tried but all have failed in the last 15 years
• 7 and 8yo's have won 5 of the last 13 runnings

Betting
• 14 of the last 16 winners were from the top 4 in the betting
• All of the last 16 winners returned 12/1 or shorter

Class
• Since being a Group race 13 of the 14 winners had won at least a Listed contest.
• 12 of the last 14 winners were rated 107+ (1 exception unrated Irish winner Septimus who surely would have been rated 111+).
• 13 of the last 15 winners had run in a Group 2 race or better (10/15 in a Group 1 race)

Distance
• All of the last 16 winners ran over 1m4f+ last time out
• 15 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 1m4f

Previous runs
• 13 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 6 last time out
• 13 of the last 16 winners had run 14 or more times in their career
• 12 of the last 16 winners had a top 2 finish that season (14/16 top 3 finish)

Interesting Fact: 10 of the last 14 winners ran at Goodwood with 9 of them contesting the Goodwood Cup.

Simenon is the key horse here. He's as short as 13/8, but may not like the ground. In any case, he was stuffed last year in this, despite winning twice earlier in the season at Royal Ascot. Ahzeemah ought to run his race, though I was surprised that Kieren was jocked off, and last year's winner, Times Up, looks to have a really decent chance again if you can forgive his hopeless run last time (when connections felt he simply didn't stay).

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I quite like Times Up, and I've had a little bet on him. Not much, just an interest. I also think Colour Vision is over-priced.

Comment - Our own Chris W, Stat of the Day man and all round top banana, is a fan of Times Up too. Us both agreeing on the same horse: kiss of death, or double delight? Martin likes Ahzeemah's consistency here.

1421 - By the way, have you entered your fancies in the Tipping League yet? No?! Well, get to it, pronto! You could win a share of £200 in free bet loveliness, and it's free to enter (of course).

1422 - This month's leader is Katweazel currently, who went from zero to hero yesterday, by nominating 9/1 scorer Haikbidiac and... 25/1 scorer (gulp), Mont Ras. Excellent tipping! There's still time for you to pick two nice winners and creep up on the Katweazel... Click here for the tipping league.

1425 - Mark J is in the house now, and he can't see past Simenon here. He reckons Johnny G might go well with Caucus too. Good luck, Sir!

1426 - Market check: 2/1 Simenon, 4/1 Ahzeemah, 9/2 Times Up, 11/2 (from 6) Caucus, 8/1 Colour Vision, 12/1 Glen's Diamond, and 25/1 Askar Tau

1428 - Times Up is the clear RAR pick, with a line of green against his name on good to soft. Fingers crossed for that one...

1429 - Simenon is, like just about every favourite this week, clipped in a fraction in the last couple of minutes. There has been some very stealthy bookmaking this week, and the advice is most definitely to bet early Best Odds Guaranteed.

1430 - They're off to time again - good luck!

1435 - Ahzeemah wins the races, beating the game wanderer, Simenon, with Times Up - door shut in his face - third. It was a strange muddling race, and I'll be interested to see what the time boys make of the furlong sectionals.

Did you back Ahzeemah? Paul did! Well done to you.

1438 - Full result of the Lonsdale Cup:

1st 1 Ahzeemah (IRE) 4/1
2nd 6 Simenon (IRE) 15/8 f

Placepot still has £54k in the pool. All geegeez lines still running, but we need a result in there. Hopefully not in the next, when we're banked on the favourite.

Coming up next: nag news - geegeez horses past and present.

1445 - There are a few horses in which I have bits of involvement, some with fellow geegeez readers and some on my lonesome. Three of interest just now are...

Man Of Leisure - Anthony Honeyball's club horse has been brilliant in winning five of six hurdle starts. He looked to be cantering to victory at Ffos Las on his chase debut yesterday before getting in way too close at one down the back and giving Rachael Green no chance. He'll be back, perhaps as soon as Fontwell next Thursday.

Khajaaly - the former geegeez horse is now trained by Mick Appleby, having been bought at the recent Ascot Sales, and he makes his first start for his new yard tonight at Newcastle. In a strange twist of fate, Newcastle was also the track at which Khajaaly had his first run for us, finishing fourth of seven. Despite him being a sixteen race maiden on turf (three wins and a million places on all weather), he's been close to a green win a few times. It will be very interesting to see how Mick does with him as he must be considered a well-handicapped beast. I've backed him, mainly out of sentiment and only for small money, in the 6.55 this evening.

Priceless Art - One of the current geegeez horses, he's been disappointing, but has a chance to make amends in a claiming hurdle next Wednesday at Worcester. The oppo doesn't look strong, and this is something of a last chance saloon for a horse we had high hopes with.

And so to the 3.05 - commentary below...

3.05 York - Strensall Stakes

Race analysis tab - change the going to 'good to soft'

An interesting little race, and one in which I'm siding with the improving, Pavlosk. She was considered good enough to be thrown into Group 1 company two starts back and, while she got found out there, she is a Listed winner and this is a small step up. She ran well from a poor draw last time at Goodwood and I reckon the trip here is spot on.

Many of you like Robin Hood's Bay, a progressive sort who was second in the Winter Derby on the all weather. That's a Group 3, as is this, so he has the class. There is a question mark about the ground but he hasn't proven he doesn't act on softish, so he might run well for you fanciers out there!

1456 -Where's the pace in the Strensall? Tricky from a pace perspective. Both Archbishop and City Style are capable of going on, as possible could Pavlosk. Archbishop looks the most likely, and if he's allowed an easy lead he might just steal it. He goes on soft and, if fit enough first time up, might be interesting. He's a Group 3 winner and a Group 2 runner up.

1501 - Market check: 7/4 Pavlosk, 11/2 Archbishop, 6/1 Robin Hoods Bay, 15/2 City Style, 8/1 Danadana, 8/1 Gabrial, 11/1 Red Avenger

Four minutes to race three!

1503 - Almost half (£23,000 of £54,000) of the remaining pool is on Pavlosk here, including my banker tickets! Come on Pavlosk, today's the day, my lovely!

1506 - Good luck all, race three is off! 6/4 Pavlosk - more bookie clipping. Good Lord...

1509 - Good Lord indeed. Pavlosk never going, nor was Robin Hoods Bay, and it was City Style who held the late rally of Danadana. Placepots all down. Horrible race, wherever you are. Winner drifted from 5/1 to 9/1. Danadana finished last in both his last two starts. Go figure!

1512 - I'm really aggrieved at that result. It's just one of those races where, whichever way you look at it, it's very, very hard to make a case for the first two.

1515 - Strensall Stakes Full Result:

1st 3 City Style (USA) 9/1
2nd 1 Danadana (IRE) 8/1

Right, five minutes break for a cup of tea and a regroup after that shocker. Back at 1520.

3.40 York - Nunthorpe Stakes

Race analysis tab - change the going to 'good to soft'

Key Nunthorpe Stakes Trends

Killer stat: 13 of the last 14 winners had won a race that season (exception was 2yo maiden winner)

Age
• 14 of the last 18 winners were 3-6yo's
• Only three 6yo's have won since 1980
• 3 of the last 5 3yo winners had won the July Cup
• Only 3 horses aged over 6 have won in the races 87 year history (all 3 in last 9 years)

Betting
• 16 of the last 18 winners returned 12/1 or shorter

Class
• 12 of the last 14 winners had run in a Group 2 or better race (Exception was 2yo winner & 2010 shock 100/1 winner)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Group Race
• 10 of the last 11 winners with an official rating were rated 108+

Distance
• All of the last 18 winners ran over 5-6f last time out
• 11 of the last 13 winners had a top 3 finish in a 5f Pattern race (1 exception hadn't run over 5f)

Previous runs
• 12 of the last 14 winners had a top 2 finish in at least 1 of their last 2 runs
• 12 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 4 last time out (15/15 top 6)
• All of the last 14 winners had run at least twice that season (13/14 2-6 times)

Interesting Fact: 15 of the last 18 winners had their last run at Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood or Newmarket's July meeting

Interesting fact 2: In the last 12 years all of the 4yo and older winners had won over 5f while all bar one of the younger runners were winning over the trip for the first time

1523 - OK, lot's of facts and figures here, thanks Gavin. Looks like we need a fairly fancied runner, rated 108+ and a 5f pattern race placed sort. Bonus point for finishing 1-2 in one last two races.

1525 - Shortlist is Shea Shea, Sole Power, Slade Power, Moviesta, Kingsgate Native and Swiss Spirit.

If form on a bit of give is material, that leads us to Slade Power and Moviesta.

What do you like in the Nunthorpe?

1530 - Is anyone out there?! Very quiet now. Are we all sulking about the placepot? Or concentrating on the next?

Opening show in for Nunthorpe. Massive shock (not) to see Shea Shea is half a point shorter than it's been all day at 7/2. 11/2 Sole Power (bigger, in fairness), 13/2 Moviesta, 7/1 Swiss Spirit, 8/1 Slade Power.

1534 - OK, let's fire this up. I'm going with Slade Power, Spirit Quartz and Jwala, the last two each way. Need something from somewhere to prevent another desperate day. Painful to write when it's getting away from you...

1537 - If you've been following all day, it won't come as a surprise to you that the first six in the betting have all been cut in price. Currently betting to over 125%

1540 - OK, let's get ready to rumble. Best of luck to you here. Send my fancies a good vibe as well as your own. 🙂

1546 - Wow!!! Jwala. 80 on Betfair!!! 😀

1550 - Brilliant. Not much on, but then how much do you need at 80 on Betfair?! Also 17 for the place. Sweet sweet patience loveliness! Jwala is now officially my favourite horse!

1555 - Still peeling myself off the ceiling after that. Accused of after-timing on twitter. So what? As you'll know, there was some before timing as well. Also in the placepot picks, where I wrote, "Jwala has an outside squeak if you can forgive her run last time, when she completely fluffed the start." Good girl. Such a lovely lass!!!

Full result of the Nunthorpe:

1st 16 Jwala 40/1
2nd 6 Shea Shea (SAF) 3/1 f
3rd 8 Sole Power 4/1

1602 - As Martin points out on the comments, have you noticed how much green the winners have had?! The RAR will be fun 🙂

1608 - The next race is a maiden, which was won last year by BetFred Mile winner, Wentworth. It's a good maiden, but it's a maiden nevertheless.

Plenty of cash for Derbyshire this morning, an unraced Kevin Ryan horse, and we know from this post that Ryan has plenty of 2yo winners at this meeting. Might be worth a small interest.

1613 - One more point on the RAR. Note that the data is updated in real time when the results come in, so the green lines look better for the winners after. Just wanted to clear that up before people think they've discovered the 'golden goose'. Also, as already stated, there are plenty of bits of it that don't work as we'd like right now. For all that, it is an incredible time saver.

1617 - Anyone still going in the placepot? Got a text from Councillor Jim, with whom I was at York yesterday, and he is. Good man. Hope some of you are too.

4.20 Convivial Maiden Stakes

1620 - A big come down from the Nunthorpe, but they're off!

1625 - Golden Town makes it a very good day for those boys in blue, Godolphin, winning at 4/1.

1628 - This was yet another race when those close to the pace did best. A few have closed to be placed, but the percentage call has to be a handy position during the early part of the race. I'll be looking at the pace in the last with that in mind.

1632 - Josh W, who has had a bad day, gets some back with 66/1 (returned 33/1) placer, Bow Creek, based on the sire stats of all things! Good work, Josh. There's still time to come out in front on the last!

1633 - Full Result of the Convivial Maiden:

1st 4 Golden Town (IRE) 4/1
2nd 6 Red Galileo 15/8 f
3rd 1 Bow Creek (IRE) 33/1

1636 - OK, lucky last upcoming. Commentary below the Race Analysis Report...

4.55 3yo Handicap Stakes

Race analysis tab - change the going to 'good to soft'

1639 - OK, best on the RAR win are Secret Art and One Word More, and on the RAR place we're looking at One Word More, Machete Mark and perhaps Enobled.

Looking at pace analysis, One Word More should race prominently, and that's more than enough to make him a solid each way tickle here. Oh yeah, and he's a 33/1 shot! Run in Group races the last twice, this is much more like it.

Looks like Spencer/Hills quietly fancy One Word More here. He's very strong on Betfair and has come in to 25s with the bookies.

1648 - Seems like people are enjoying the RAR. As they used to say in the back of the removal van in the KitKat advert, it'll "be even better when we get the carpets in...!"

 

1650 - Market check - It's 9/2 Hay Dude and Machete Mark, 5/1 Short Squeeze, 7/1 Majestic Moon and Secret Art.

Majestic is likely to lead and is bidding for a four-timer. He could be one of those 'why didn't I back that' types after the race...

1653 - Had a cheeky slice on Secret Art too. Two against the field with One Word More. I want both to be prominent as I don't expect too many to get involved from off the pace. Let's hope I'm right about that, and you're all on with me!!!

1654 - They're going behind for the lucky last. Hoping it will be lucky. By the way, Councillor Jim has 3, 5 and 11 here on the placepot. All massive prices, and all for 80p. Very good luck to him with those.

1659 - Short Squeeze wins the last for Hugo Palmer, and Colin M. Equity Risk was second for Councillor Jim, and gives him 80p of what I think will be a £509.60 dividend, or £407.68 for cash. Lovely stuff indeed. Just a shame I'm not there to get a drink out of it. 😀

1703 - Full result:

1st 17 Short Squeeze (IRE) 5/1
2nd 11 Equity Risk (USA) 14/1
3rd 1 King George River (IRE) 20/1

1708 - And that's about it for now. Thanks a million for your company this afternoon. I hope some of you won a few quid on what was a very very tough day's punting. Obviously I've smashed my way out of trouble on the day (and the week) with Jwala, and that's why I/we tickle the big prices - because sometimes they do us a favour!

Tomorrow should be easier, or at least not any harder, and do be sure to check the pace in the first race as it could well pay to be handy again.

I'll have a placepot perm tomorrow but no full preview as such. Have a great bank holiday weekend, and good luck if you're punting.

Matt

p.s. Don't forget your free Betfred tenner if you had a tote bet with them this week at York.

p.p.s. If you've not got a Betfred (or any other account), check out our 12-to-1 tool which will do the hard work for you.

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59 replies
  1. Chris says:

    Hello Matt, love the additional info., appreciate it is test stage, but changed the going to good to soft for the Lonsdale and backed up with Gavin’s trends, Times Up has to be the bet.

    Now to get stuck into the Nunthorpe!!

    Cheers, Chris

  2. Ian says:

    Hi Matt – straight course over last 2 days has seen middle/high numbers prevail – softer ground should enhance this stat – all speed horses drawn lower than 10 – I have a hunch spirit quartz or moviesta could spring a surprise – what are your thoughts?

  3. Paul says:

    Hi Matt one I was given at a big price this morning was Tepmokea.could only get £6.50 on ew at morning price of 33/1 note best price now 20/1 chance for a place

  4. Jim says:

    Some interesting looking developments Matt with lots of potential for the form study!! Robin Hoods Bay seems to be offering a lot of value to me, shame there’s only 7 though!

  5. bdhorse says:

    Interesting developments on GeeGeez Matt, like it. As for today I don’t fancy getting too heavily involved, reckon we are playing a big guessing game with regards to the ground. Saying that I have picked through the opener (1.55) and have come up with a cursory shortlist of Gospel Choir, White Nile & TEPMOKEA, the last named being of most interest to me. A dual course & distance winner, form on ground with cut in it and back to his last winning mark. Obviously susceptible to an improver and Stoute horse could have plenty up his sleeve, likely I’ll cover TEPMO with GOSPEL C.

    Best ofluck to all getting involved today – Ben (BDH)

  6. Josh W says:

    Hi Matt,
    look like great additions to the site and our punting armory!
    the rain has thrown a few spanners in the works – however looks like could be quite hot fro morning onwards so may dry out come the main action. I like Sole Power and Slade Power. With change in ground, course form and trainer form in race, i have had small nibble on Tempokea and Scatterdice Each way. interesting how they dropped temokea down i trip for last two runs, protecting/reducing handicap mark.

  7. Paul says:

    Other bets for people to avoid as I’ve done them 2.30 York Ahzeemah, 3.05 York Danadana, 3:40 York – Swiss Spirit ew and in the lucky last 4:55 York Majestic Moon any thoughts

  8. John Begg says:

    Rios Rosana will do for me in the first on the basis of York form on g/s at the distance in the past 2 years

  9. david metcalf says:

    Sole power the Irish raider great win last time and in with a real chance my nap of the day and good price for e/w punters

  10. rab says:

    hi matts
    here is my placepot picks
    1 no 1
    2 no 6
    3 no 5
    4 no 6
    5 no10
    6 no 9 ,11
    happy punting everyone good luck

  11. Chris says:

    Would love to stay online all afternoon Matt, but work beckons and unfortunately my tipping over the years means the 9-5 is a necessity.

    Here goes, through the card – bet of the day, Pavlosk in 3.05, Ryan Moore gives me the same confidence that Fallon did in his prime. Next best, Times Up in 2.30. Can’t split the top two in the Nunthorpe so going for a long shot with Graham Lee to land a big race success with Ladies Are Forever.

    That leaves 3 races and will be having a speculative e/w patent on Itlaaq (1.55), Tahadee (4.20) & King George River (4.55).

    Good luck and have fun, Chris

  12. mick says:

    Posted from my phone is hard work wintrlude.times up .robin good bay. Sole power master of the world. Hay dude good luck all

    • Mark Botham says:

      yes you are I only got 10’s on Betfair! (kudos to Kev Lane!!)
      Btw Matt Thanks for the new tool; in the 16.55 I changed the settings to g/s and 12 to15 runners and the ‘Place’ button. Obvious selections were Equity Risk and King George River! With my own selections for the 1st place(very creative, first 3 in market!) and Sporting Life RP etc I had many lines at 25p(hint: Betfair Tote allows easy entry of perms) on the Trifecta = £3165 to £1!!!!
      Thank you Matt for your great service, I don’t even mind SOTD!
      Ps my selections for the places; utter waste of money!

      Regards
      Mark B

  13. PatD says:

    Gospel choir needed that run by the look of that performance 3 left in my yankee
    Times Up,Pavlosk,and Swiss Spirit .

  14. martin says:

    Hi Matt…like the super consistent Ahzeemah for the 2.30. The new filters look really really good…can’t wait to start playing with them.

    Martin

  15. PatD says:

    Matt,
    Swiss Spirit won a listed race at Newbury last year beating Lethal Force by a nk

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      That was on good, Pat. I’m not saying it can’t win (of course), but it does seem to prefer quicker.

      It’ll probably win by five lengths now!!

      Matt

  16. Mark Johnson says:

    Love the live blog! Can’t see beyond Simenon in the next although Johnnie G (Caucus) is hitting some decent form and just won the last at HQ….Have fun Matt!
    Mark J

  17. Alex C says:

    Hey Matt, hope all is going well. What a fantastic guide to today’s York action. Well done to you guys. Erm, that is all. Alex C

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Alex – getting there. Hopefully, these reports will be super-awesome when they’re finished. I just wanted to give a little flavour today.

  18. martin says:

    Robin Hoods Bay for the 3.05. The trip is a bit of a concern (most form at 10f), but at the odds willing to take a chance.

    Just being playing around with the filters…absolutely fantastic Matt. This is going to be a very very useful resource for pinpointing winners.

    Martin

  19. Jim W says:

    Great blog Matt, as ever. Interesting comments about MOL, K and PA. I didn’t think MOL looked as comfortable over fences as he has over hurdles personally, in terms of his general rhythm. Tongue tie for K. Did Julia ever try that? I’m sure she said that they tried to get one on him in the yard once and that he wasn’t keen, to say the least. Hope he goes well and I am looking forward to paying him a visit soon, will keep you posted. PA looked class on his first run for you but must have some ‘issues’ as most horses do. Good luck with Pavlosk coming up, does look banker material.

  20. Pete says:

    At least we have a free bet with betfred in the ebor after the placepot goes down! I hope I remember! Pete

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Every cloud and all that. It’s fair to say that if I’d had four picks from the seven horses, I wouldn’t have taken either of those two. Lousy rotten pigs…

  21. Paul says:

    Thought danadana was going yo get up good horse on good to firm and over the right distance to far last time

  22. Pete says:

    Fancy the haggas horse Rosdhu Queen. Got a couple of savers as well incl spirit quartz at 25’s

  23. Mark Johnson says:

    Still following you Matt….Spirit Quartz ew (nice draw) for me in this one

  24. bob says:

    hi matt, information brilliants the rats are unnervingly accurate. fancy kingsgate native ew

    bob

  25. RonCombo says:

    Hi Matt, looked at the race analysis chart for the 3.40, bit of green ink on Jwala, little e/w tickle and thank you VERY MUCH!!

  26. ynwajim says:

    well well, superb selection there Matt! cant say i was anywhere near to picking him out!

  27. Martin says:

    Has anyone noticed how much green all the winners have had on the filters this afternoon for York this afternoon. This is going to be a very good resource…thank you Matt.

    Martin

  28. IanF says:

    not able to check it before the races but the race analysis tool, seems to work very well today.

  29. john Begg says:

    Had to go to work today so I could get use my last holiday day to see PA at Worcester on Wednesday. Followed the blog when I could. Will try and find the winner in the last and have a proper look at this new tool.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Very good prioritization, John. See you next week, all other things being equal.

  30. ynwajim says:

    clutching at straws and not having backed a winner i have optimistically gone with some non-handicap Sire Stats for York. left with Bow Creek and Master of the World and that will do for me on what has not been a great day!

  31. ynwajim says:

    well a 66/1 3rd for small EW stakes will do me there. Shamardal definitely a sire to follow at this track – very impressive record, as do USA bred in general i think

  32. Paul says:

    A three timer for Sylvestre de Sousa! I was on the first two. RAR a great tool Matt, thanks.

  33. ynwajim says:

    will reinvest some small beer in King George River and One Word More EW at good prices.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      A pleasure Pete – pity about the placepot. But you know Councillor Jim – he’s in the PA (and Bene King) syndicates. He’s the fellow that copped a £407.68 on the placepot today. Remember that when you see him next 😉

      Matt

  34. Martin says:

    For a beta run – for a tough Ebor card – the RAR ratings have proved very accurate, even taking into account that the RAR ratings are automatically updated after each result. Certainly whetted the appetite of what else you’ve got in store for us geegeez readers Matt!

    The RAR will no doubt be excellent for constructing placepots, since you’ll be able to choose horses that rate slightly differently across the ratings giving you something of an insurance policy…if there is any such thing when putting your money down-;)

    Really looking forward to the full version of the RAR…its a fantastic start.

    Hope you enjoyed your day at the races Matt!

    Martin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Martin – and yes, exactly. The win and place options will give quite different perspectives on a race on occasion, and that reflects the way some horses are (binary horses, as I call them – the win or they’re nowhere).

      Appreciate the kind words. We’ve got some database changes happening this weekend which will hopefully resolve a small distance issue and the places issue too, and then we’ll be nearly there (excluding the right hand end handicap ratings element which isn’t started yet).

      Matt

  35. Martin says:

    Hi Matt…re your comment(s) 5.24.

    The RAR will be an excellent tool…and as with SotD…will possibly be a victim of its own success, given that some punters will want a set of ratings, system or a tipping service that provide winners all the time 24/7, and then complain when this doesn’t happen. I’ve noticed the odd moan to this effect about SotD even though its up by about 100 pts over the 2 years its been going.

    These type of punters will never be happy…..they will be forever looking for the ‘golden goose’ that doesn’t exist!

    The whole Geegeez approach – please correct me if I am wrong – seems to be aimed at providing quality information and tools to enable the punter to make his/her own selections…and that’s the fun of having a flutter…study the form, watch re runs of past races, check trainer and jockey stats…and if you can solve the puzzle sometimes you have the buzz of getting a winner. The RAR is certainly going to help in finding those winners, and remove quite a bit of the legwork.

    Have a good journey back to London.

    Martin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      That’s exactly the idea, Martin, and we’re well used to those who don’t immediately understand our ethos. It’s all fine and most enjoy coming around to our community’s way of thinking. Some don’t, which is fine too, and there are plenty of places for them.

      Best,
      Matt

      p.s. I was in Hackney today at geegeez towers!

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