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Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 10th April 26

Andy Newton
Tiger Roll and Davy Russell [right] track fellow Michael O'Leary runner Valseur Lido over the water jump in the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree. 14/4/2018 Pic Steve Davies/Racingfotos.com

Tiger Roll and Davy Russell [right] track fellow Michael O'Leary runner Valseur Lido over the water jump in the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree. 14/4/2018 Pic Steve Davies/Racingfotos.com

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 10th April 2026 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends

FRIDAY, 10th April 2026 (ITV/Racing TV)

1:45 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV

11/12 – Had won between 2-4 times (hurdles)
10/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
9/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Placed favs (top 4)
8/12 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
7/12 – Had run at Aintree before
6/12 – Aged 6
4/12 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Winning favs (joint or co)
0/12 – Outright winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 6 runnings

2:20 – Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f

22/22– Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
22/22 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
19/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
19/22 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
18/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
10/22 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
11/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 8)
4/22 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 10 of the last 22 runnings between them
12 of the last 14 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
21 of the last 28 winners were aged 6 (7) or 7 (14) years-old (14 of the last 16)
The last 22 winners were either French (9) or Irish (13) bred.
No British bred winner since 2002
6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
0 winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
35 of the last 36 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 3m before
38 of the last 43 (88%) winners had won twice or more over fences
19 of the last 22 (88%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
24 of the last 26 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989
Willie Mullins has never won this race

2:55pm – Thatprizeguy Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV

21/22 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
15/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Finished first or second last time out
13/22 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
11/22 – Aged 5 years-old
7/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 15)
23 of the last 26 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
18 of the last 28 (64%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
27 of the last 34 (79%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
11 of the last 13 winners ran in bumpers before (9 winning at least once)
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 26 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 29 runnings
Just six Irish winners since 1978 (5 from 37 this century) – but have won the last 3
Irish have won just 7 of the last 48 runnings (but 5 of the last 6)
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 25 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 2-from-8 since 2016
3 of the last 4 winners rated between 147-149
3 of the last 4 favourites have won
Respect JP McManus-owned runners (7 wins), including 3 of the last 4 (all 7 returned fav)

3:30pm – JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/22 – Raced within the last 30 days
19/22 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
19/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
18/22 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
12/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)
7/22 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 total and winning-most trainer)
4/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
35 of the last 38 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
27 of the last 33 (82%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
14 of the last 30 (47%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
21 of the last 30 (70%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
15 of the last 21 (71%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
29 of the last 34 (85%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
Respect French breds (the last 8 winners)
11 of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
Joseph O’Brien runners are 2-from-3
Jonbon has won the last 2 runnings
All winners since 2006 aged 9 or younger

4:05pm – Randox Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

20/22 – Aged 10 or younger
19/22 – Raced within the last 34 days
18/22 - Didn’t win last time out
15/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/22 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
12/22 – Unplaced last time out
11/22 – Raced within the last 23 days
5/22 – Trained by the Bowen yard
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22 - Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 6)
2/22 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
6 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 8 of the last 12 winners between them
7 of the last 11 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 11 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 18 (44%) winners raced in last year’s race
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 32 (48%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 6 Irish-trained winners since 1979, but 3 of the last 6
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (124 have tried) since 1994

4:40pm – Oddschecker Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

18/22 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/22 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
12/22 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
10/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Favourites that won
3/22 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 11)
2/22 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/22 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
2/22 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 13 runnings)
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (89%)
25 of the last 29 (86%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 32 (66%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
15 of the last 31 (48%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
17 of the last 25 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

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