Sat TV Trends: 18th April 2026

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The ITV horse racing cameras are at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Dubai Duty Free Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track on ITV, including the Greenham Stakes and, like always, we’ve got these LIVE Newbury races covered from a trends and stats angle – fingers crossed they will point you in the direction of a few winners.

While it’s also Scottish Grand National Day up at Ayr – a race trainer Willie Mullins has won for the last two seasons.

The ITV horse racing cameras are at the Scottish track to take in five races live and four at Newbury.  Meaning we've NINE live ITV races on Saturday.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1:25 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

20/22 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
19/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
19/22 – Having their first run of the season
18/22 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Came from the top three in the betting
16/22 – Drawn 5 or higher
12/22 – Had won over 7f before
10/22 – Won last time out
10/22 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/22 – Had won at Newbury before
8/22 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
6/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 10)
4/22 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/22 – Trained by the Hannon stable
Hollie Doyle has ridden the last 2 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2:00 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

20/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
20/22 – Having their first run of the season
17/22 – Won at Listed class or better before
16/22 – Won between 2-4 times before
16/22 – Placed favourites
15/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/22 – Had won a Group race before
11/22 – Had won over 7f before
10/22 – Won last time out
9/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/22 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/22 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/22 – Irish-trained
2/22 – Winners from stall 1
James Doyle has ridden 2 of the last 11 winners
3 of the last 11 from stall 8
8 of the last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2:35 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
20/22 – Had won between 2-5 times before
20/22 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
19/22 – Having their first run of the season
18/22 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
17/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/22– Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
15/22 – Had raced at Newbury before
12/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/22 – Had won a Group race before
7/22 – Raced at Newbury last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Trainer by William Haggas (3 of the last 13)
2/22 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 11)
2/22 – Trained by John Gosden
2/22 – Won by the Johnston yard
Jockey Jim Crowley (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have won 5 of the last 11
10 of the last 13 winners drawn in stalls 4 or lower (inc last 7)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

3:10 – OLBG Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

22/22 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
21/22 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
19/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
19/22 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
18/22 – Won over at least 1m before
17/22 – Rated between 85-98
16/22 – Unplaced last time out
14/22 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
12/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/22 – Carried 8-12 or less
12/22 – Had run at Newbury before
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
10/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 11)
3/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint) (1 in the last 10)
2/22 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 12)
2/22 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 11)
2/22 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 6)
1/22 – Won last time out
7 of the last 11 carried 9-1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
Ebt’s Guard (25/1) won the race in 2025
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.10 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m 1/2f RTV

21/21 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
19/21 – Aged 9 or younger
19/21 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
18/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/21 – Rated between 127-139
14/21 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Finished in the top four last time out
12/21 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
12/21 – Had run at Ayr before
11/21 – French bred
11/21 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
4/21 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/21– Winning favourites
4/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 8 years)
7 of the last 8 winners carried 11-1 or more
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Jockey Danny McMenamin has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
The Other Mozzie (6/1) won this in 2025

1:45 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV

14/14 – No more than 3 chase wins
13/14 – Aged 9 or younger
13/14 – French (5) or Irish (8) bred
12/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/14 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
9/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Had run at the track before
3/14 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 11 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
6 of the last 11 winners aged 7
8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 8lbs or more
7 of the last 9 winners aged 7 or 8
Trainer Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Trainer Alan King has won 2 of the last 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

2:20 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

22/22 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
18/22 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
18/22 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
17/22 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
17/22 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/22 – Rated 135 or higher
13/22 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
13/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/22 – Irish bred
6/22 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/22 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 12 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
Paul Nicholls has won the race 3 times
Cracking Rhapsody (10/1) won the race last season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2:55 – UK Greentech Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m 1/2f

12/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
11/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles
9/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/12 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/12 – Aged 6 years-old
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Had run at Ayr before (2 winners)
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 11 winners aged 6 years-old
10 of the last 11 winners aged between 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

3:35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

22/22 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
19/22 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
18/22 - Came from a different stable that's won the race
18/22 - Carried 11-1 or less
18/22 – Aged 8 or older
18/22 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
17/22 – French or Irish bred
15/22 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/22 – Had won over 3m or further
15/22 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
14/22 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/22 – Carried 10-9 or less
14/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/22 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/22– Won last time out
7/22 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/22 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/22 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/22 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/22 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/22 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 4 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (Last 2 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 9 winners)
2/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
The last outright winning favourite was in 1999 (Young Kenny, 1999)
2 of the last 13 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12.5/1

 

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2026 Craven Stakes Trends

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The Craven Stakes is the feature contest on the three-day Newmarket April Meeting and is a Group Three race run over 1 mile.

Being for 3 year-old colts and geldings the race is often seen as an early season trial for the 2,000 Guineas, run the following month – although, the last horse to win both races was Haafhd in 2004. The 2018 winner - Masar - went onto win the Epsom Derby.

Here at GeeGeez, we looks back at recent winners and gives you the key stats ahead of the 2026 renewal – this year staged on Thursday 16th April.

Recent Craven Stakes Winners

2025 - FIELD OF GOLD (100/30 fav)
2024 - HAATEM (17/2)
2023 - INDESTRUCTIBLE (8/1)
2022 - NATIVE TRAIL (1/4 fav)
2021 - MASTER OF THE SEAS (11/4 fav)
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – SKARDU (3/1)
2018 – MASAR (7/2)
2017 – EMINENT (8/1)
2016 – STORMY ANTARCTIC (9/2)
2015 – KOOL COMPANY (14/1)
2014 – TOORMORE (Evs fav)
2013 – TORONADO (8/11 fav)
2012 –TRUMPET MAJOR (9/2)
2011 – NATIVE KHAN (8/11 fav)
2010 – ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (10/11 fav)
2009 – DELEGATOR (4/6 fav)
2008 - TWICE OVER (9/4)
2007 – ADAGIO (5/4 fav)
2006 – KILLYBEGS (9/2)
2005 – DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT (12/1)
2004 – HAAFHD (10/3)
2003 – HURRICANE ALAN (9/1)

Craven Stakes Betting Trends

20/22 – Having their first run of the season
17/22 – Rated 109 or higher
17/22 – Yet to win over a mile
16/22 – Came from the top three in the betting
16/22 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
16/22 – Had won over 7f before
16/22 – Had won no more than twice before
14/22 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
13/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
13/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (5 won)
10/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Trained by Richard Hannon (5 of the last 14) (9 Hannon Jr and Snr wins in total)
3/22 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of the last 7)
2/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
1/22 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (Haafhd)
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
12 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 5 or less
4 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Trainer John Gosden has only won the race twice (2025 & 1993)
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 4/1

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2026 Nell Gwyn Stakes Trends

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The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes is run on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course in April over a distance of 7f. The Group 3 contest is for 3 year-old fillies only and was first run in 1961 – the race is also often seen as a trial race for the 1,000 Guineas run the following month at the same track - the last horses to win both races were Speciosa in 2006 and Cachet in 2022.

Did you know? 17 of the last 23 Nell Gwyn Stakes winners finished in the top 3 last time out.

Here at GeeGeez we look back at recent winners and gives you all the key stats ahead of the 2026 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 15th April.

Recent Nell Gywn Stakes Winners

2025 - ZANZOUN (9/1)
2024 - PRETTY CRYSTAL (18/1)
2023 - MAMMAS GIRL (16/1)
2022 - CACHET (15/8 fav)
2021 - SACRED (6/1)
2020 – No Race
2019 – QABALA (10/3 fav)
2018 – SOLILOQUY (4/1)
2017 – DABAN (12/1)
2016 – NATHRA (5/4 fav)
2015 – OSAILA (4/1)
2014 – SANDIVA (7/2 fav)
2013 – HOT SNAP (10/1)
2012 – ESENTEPE (28/1)
2011 – BAREFOOT LADY (14/1)
2010 – MUSIC SHOW (6/1)
2009 – FANTASIA (4/5 fav)
2008 – INFALLIBLE (7/2 fav)
2007 – SCARLET RUNNER (15/2)
2006 – SPECIOSA (9/1)
2005 – KAREN’S CAPER (15/2)
2004 – SILCA’S GIFT (25/1)
2003 – KHULOOD (15/8 fav)

Nell Gywn Stakes Betting Trends and Stats

21/22 – Were having their first run of the season
19/22 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
16/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/22 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
15/22 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/22 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
11/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/22 – Had won over 7f before
11/22 – Won last time out
9/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/22 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
7/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Trained by John Gosden (6 wins in total)
3/22 – Trained by Richard Hannon (4 in total for the yard)
2/22 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/22 – Ridden by William Buick
2/22 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 11
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 9/1

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2026 Scottish Grand National Trends

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The Grand National bandwagon continues this weekend as we get set for the Coral-sponsored SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – this year will now be run on Saturday 18th April 2026, at Ayr racecourse.

As, we all know the main National is the one at Aintree, but the Scottish version is up there as a close second with the Irish and Welsh renewals so it’s still a fascinating race.

Run over 4m, which is around 2 furlongs shorter than last week's Aintree version, but with 27 fences to jump too then it goes without saying stamina will still very much be the order of the day.

Trainer Willie Mullins has won the last two runnings with MacDermott and Captain Cody - and tries again with Road To Home.

There will be a maximum of 25 runners too so – just like all the other Nationals a certain amount of luck is also required for runners and riders to avoid any fallers or loose horses.

However, being first run in 1858 and having a long history then there are also plenty of trends for punters to take in and hopefully use to find the best profiles of past winners.

For example…………………Did you know that ALL of the last 22 winners ran within the last 57 days, while 17 of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or older?

Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats

22/22 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
19/22 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
18/22 - Came from a different stable that's won the race
18/22 - Carried 11-1 or less
18/22 – Aged 8 or older
18/22 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
17/22 – French or Irish bred
15/22 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/22 – Had won over 3m or further
15/22 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
14/22 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/22 – Carried 10-9 or less
14/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/22 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/22– Won last time out
7/22 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/22 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/22 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/22 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/22 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/22 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 4 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (Last 2 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 9 winners)
2/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
The last outright winning favourite was in 1999 (Young Kenny, 1999)
2 of the last 13 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12.5/1

Recent Scottish Grand National Winners

2025 - CAPTAIN CODY (9/1)
2024 - MACDERMOTT (18/1)
2023 - KITTY'S LIGHT (4/1 jfav)
2022 – WIN MY WINGS (13/2 cfav)
2021 - MIGHTY THUNDER (8/1)
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003 – RYALUX (15/2)

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2026 Grand National Trends

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2026 Grand National Betting Trends and Tips - The Randox Health Grand National is simply the biggest and most famous horse race in the world. Run at Aintree racecourse each year in early April the gruelling contest is run over a trip of 4 1/4 miles with the first ever winner being the appropriately-named Lottery.

With 34 runners to go through one popular angle on whittling down the field is to use some key trends - apply these to the 2026 Grand National runners and you'll at least build up a profile of the type of horse it takes to win the Liverpool marathon.

Did you know that since 1978 only FOUR horses have won carrying more than 11-5 in weight, while we've only had one winning 7 year-old since 1941........which was Noble Yeats in 2022.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at past winners and highlights the key betting trends ahead of the 2026 Aintree Grand National - this year run on Saturday 11th April - and sponsored by Randox Health.

Ok, at first glance with now 34 runners (reduced from 40) contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to trying to hunt down the winner – however, despite those daunting factors you can often find the Grand National winner by following a few simple tips and trends.

The 2026 Grand National is on Saturday 11th April at 4pm.

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Positive Grand National Pointers……………….

  • Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description
  • Note horses wearing a tongue-tie (5 of the last 8)
  • Aged between 8-10, but last 10 have all been aged 9 or younger
  • Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
  • Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
  • Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National (won 7 of the last 9)
  • Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
  • Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well
  • Horses that have won over 3miles in the past is virtual ‘must-have’

Negative Grand National Pointers…………………

  • Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record – you have to go back to 1923!
  • Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
  • Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records
  • Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t run well
  • Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well, although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch again in 2019 and Corach Rambler won at Cheltenham before winning the National in 2023.

Recent Grand National Winners

2025 - Nick Rockett (33/1)
2024 - I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
2023 - Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
2021 - Minella Times (11/1)
2020 - Cancelled (Covid)
2019 - Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 - Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 - One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 - Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 - Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 - Don't Push It 10/1jfav
2009 - Mon Mome 100/1
2008 - Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 - Silver Birch 33/1
2006 - Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 - Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 - Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 - Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 - Bindaree 20/1
2001 - Red Marauder 33/1
2000 - Papillon 10/1
1999 - Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 - Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 - Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 - Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 - Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 - Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 - VOID RACE
1992 - Party Politics 14/1
1991 - Seagram 12/1
1990 - Mr Frisk 16/1

Aintree Grand National Trends

  • 33/34 – Officially rated 137 or higher
  • 32/34 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
  • 30/34 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
  • 30/34 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
  • 26/34 – Returned a double-figure price
  • 25/34 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
  • 25/34 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
  • 25/34 – Aged 9 or older
  • 24/34 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
  • 23/34 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
  • 22/34 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (8 of the last 9)
  • 21/34 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
  • 20/34 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
  • 20/34 – Placed favourites (top 4)
  • 18/34 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
  • 16/34 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
  • 14/34 – Trained in Ireland (inc 11 of the last 19 years)
  • 13/34 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 10/34 – Won last time out
  • 8/34 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
  • 7/34 – Ran in a previous Aintree Grand National (but 15 of the last 17 were having their debuts)
  • 3/34 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
  • 3/34 - Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
  • 2/34 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • 2/34 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 8)
  • 1/34 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 151 horses have tried to win with 11-6 (or more) – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 20 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 5 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue tie
  • 23 of the last 31 winners aged between 8-10
  • Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
  • 15 of the last 17 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
  • Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
  • 16 of the last 28 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 16 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 10 of the last 22 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 23 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Just two past winners or placed horses from the previous year’s race has won for 39 years (88 have attempted)
  • 26 of the last 28 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (22 Year)

22/22 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
20/22 – Officially rated 137 or higher
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m previously
19/22 – Ran 50 days or less ago
18/22 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
15/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
14/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/22– Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/22 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/22 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/22 – Experienced the National fences before
8/22 – Won their last race
6/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (6 of the last 10)
5/22– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/22 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
3/22 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard
2/22 – Won by the McCain yard
2/22 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard

2026 Grand National Trends and Stats 

Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory - including Nick Rockett (11-8) and I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024. However, looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point.

If you look back over the winners, we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977), Nick Rockett (2025) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 25 of the last 34 winners carried 10-13 or less.

Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the Grand National entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the gruelling 4m 1/4f trip?

30 of the last 34 winners had won over 3m+ in the past, but it's worth noting that the 2021 Minella Times - had only won over 2m6f before heading to National glory.

Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9 years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on.

Before Noble Yeats won as a 7 year-old in 2022 - you had to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon!

Also don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager - 26 of the last 34 winners were aged 9 or older, but it is worth pointing out 6 of the last 10 winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat. Including Nick Rockett (2025) and I Am Maximus in (2024).

9 of the last 10 winners were aged either 8 or 9.

Tongue-Tie: An interesting stat that's building up is that five of the last 8 National winners wore a tongue-tie. Backed up again in 2023 with Corach Rambler sporting this form of headgear or equipment.

We can expect several of the runners to follow suit, but this emerging trend should also help knock out many. While 3 of the last 7 winners wore headgear of some sort.

Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners.

10 of the last 21 winners came from Irish-based stables, including 7 of the last 9 and another in 2025 with the Willie Mullins-trained Nick Rockett - which was his third win in the race after I Am Maximus and Hedgehunter.

The only two non-Irish winners came from the Lucinda Russell team in Scotland – so the last British-trained winner was still Many Clouds in 2015.

In short, the Irish or Russell have won ALL of the last NINE Nationals.

Fencing Master: With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to negotiate with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a massive advantage.

Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase - or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at.

Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear.

It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting.

8 of the last 34 runnings have been won by the favourite (24%), while 20 of the last 34 (59%) market leaders were placed (top 4 finish)!

Two of the last three runnings have now been won by the favourite (or joint) too, plus three of the last six.

Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings.

In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, that punters generally tend to get this race right.

13 of the last 22 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market. But we did see a 33/1 winner last year with Nick Rockett.

With 6 of the last 7 winners returning 14/1 or shorter. Only 50/1 winner Noble Yeats in 2022 has really saved the bookies since 2017.

Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 34 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran.

This is because the majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day.

While if you want to take this trend further than you’ll notice that a large amount of recent winners of the Grand National actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world.

31 of the last 33 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 25 of the last 34 raced no more than 34 days ago!

In 2021, Minella Times, did defy this trend after winning the National off a 62-day break, while the 2023 winner Corach Rambler ran just 32 days prior, when first in the Ultima Handicap Chase in 2023 at the Cheltenham Festival.

12 months ago, Nick Rockett was last in action 42 days before winning the race – when winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, which was won by last year's third Grangeclare West this season.

The last two Bobbyjo Chase winners have won the National.

While 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the Ultima Chase, Bobbyjo Chase or Cross Country Chase before winning the National.

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Aintree Day Three Stats and Trends: Saturday 11th April 26

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As we head into the last day of the 2026 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 11th April 2026 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Liverpool Hurdle and The Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent events, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

As always here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Good Luck!

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Aintree Horse Racing Trends

SATURDAY, 11th April 2026 (ITV/Racing TV)

12:45 – Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m

22/22 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
22/21 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
22/22– Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
19/22 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
18/22 – Ran within the last 35 days
16/22 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/22 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
12/22 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/22 – Favourites that won
9/22 – Won their last race
6/22 – Irish-trained winners
6/22 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/22 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 4 of last 14 runnings)
3/22 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 12 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 24 years and 4-from-5 since 2008 (when running)
Since 1989 there have been just 6 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2022 & 2024
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 8 winners and 7 runners-up
21 of the last 29 (72%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
10 of the last 15 winners were French bred
11 of the last 16 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 2 winners in the last 25 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 27 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973
The last 9 winners returned 5/1 or shorter

2025 Winner: Kalif Du Berlias (15/8)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden

1.20pm – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV

11/12 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/12 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/12 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
10/12 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/12 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
8/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/12 – Didn’t win last time out
8/12 – Carried 10-12 in weight
8/12 – Placed favs (top 4)
8/12 – Had never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
7/12 – Rated between 131-138
5/12 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Finished in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/12 – Trained by Dan Skelton (3 of the last 6)
2/12 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)
Harry Skelton has ridden 2 of the last 6

2025 Winner: Deep Cave (28/1)
Trainer: Christian Williams
Jockey: Jack Tudor

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

21/22 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
19/22 – Raced 39 days or less ago
19/22 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
18/22 – Placed in the top three last time out
17/22 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (12 of last 15)
12/22 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
10/22 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (9 of the last 14 favs have won)
10/22 – Won their last race
4/22 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/22 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 8)
2/22 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 2 of last 14 runnings)
Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
21 of the last 28 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
15 of the last 16 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
20 of the last 27 (74%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
16 of the last 26 (62%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
17 of the last 28 (61%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 14 of the last 21 (67%) runnings between them
10 of the last 15 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 29 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 36 years
Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
Front runners in the race have a bad recent record
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last 4

2025 Winner: Honesty Policy (5/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Mark Walsh

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

18/22 – Had run within the last 35 days
17/22 – Didn’t win last time out
16/22 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
16/22 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
14/22 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
13/22 – Unplaced in their last race
12/22 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
5/22 – Won their last race
4/22 – Favourites that won
3/22 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 15)
2/22 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 of the last 26 winners were aged 10+
Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 21 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 48 runnings
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
11 of the last 18 winners didn’t win earlier that season
10 of the last 13 winners had won over 3m before
Only 3 of the last 19 winners won last time out
Cruz Control has won the last 2 runnings

2025 Winner: Cruz Control (10/1)
Trainer: Tom Lacey
Jockey: Stan Sheppard

3.05pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

17/21 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
16/21 – Ran within the last 30 days
15/21 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
14/21 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
14/21 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
13/21 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/21 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9/21 – Won their last race
9/21 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
7/21 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
5/21 – Irish-trained winners
4/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/21 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 4)
2/21 – Trained by Alan King
2/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
16 of the last 21 (76%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
19 of the last 21 (90%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
17 of the last 21 (81%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 21 (67%) were favourite or second favourite
8 of the last 16 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7 of the last 16 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 10 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 6-from-7
Just 3 of the last 21 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
Just 3 winners rated below 155 in the last 21 runnings
No 5 year-old winners
Strong Leader won the race in 2024 & 2nd in 2025

2025 Winner: Hiddenvalley Lake (12/1)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Darrargh O’Keeffe

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

33/34 – Officially rated 137 or higher
32/34 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
30/34 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
30/34 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
26/34 – Returned a double-figure price
25/34 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
25/34 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
25/34 – Aged 9 or older
24/34 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
23/34 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
22/34 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (8 of the last 9)
21/34 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
20/34 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
20/34 – Placed favourites (top 4)
18/34 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
16/34 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
14/34 – Trained in Ireland (inc 11 of the last 19 years)
13/34 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
10/34 – Won last time out
8/34 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
7/34 – Ran in a previous Aintree Grand National (but 15 of the last 17 were having their debuts)
3/34 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
3/34 - Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
2/34 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/34 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 8)
1/34 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

• Since 1978, 151 horses have tried to win with 11-6 (or more) – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 20 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
• 5 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue tie
• 23 of the last 31 winners aged between 8-10
• Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
• 15 of the last 17 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
• Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
• 16 of the last 28 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
• No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
• 3 of the last 16 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
• 10 of the last 22 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
• 5 of the last 23 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
• Just two past winners or placed horses from the previous year’s race has won for 39 years (88 have attempted)
• 26 of the last 28 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
• Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (22 Year)

22/22 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
20/22 – Officially rated 137 or higher
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m previously
19/22 – Ran 50 days or less ago
18/22 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
15/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
14/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/22– Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/22 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/22 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/22 – Experienced the National fences before
8/22 – Won their last race
6/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (6 of the last 10)
5/22– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/22 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
3/22 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard
2/22 – Won by the McCain yard
2/22 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard

 

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Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 10th April 26

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Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 10th April 2026 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends

FRIDAY, 10th April 2026 (ITV/Racing TV)

1:45 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV

11/12 – Had won between 2-4 times (hurdles)
10/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
9/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Placed favs (top 4)
8/12 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
7/12 – Had run at Aintree before
6/12 – Aged 6
4/12 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Winning favs (joint or co)
0/12 – Outright winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 6 runnings

  • 2025 Winner: Wellington Arch (14)
  • Trainer: Jonjo & AJ O’Neill
  • Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr

2:20 – Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f

22/22– Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
22/22 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
19/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
19/22 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
18/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
10/22 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
11/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 8)
4/22 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 10 of the last 22 runnings between them
12 of the last 14 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
21 of the last 28 winners were aged 6 (7) or 7 (14) years-old (14 of the last 16)
The last 22 winners were either French (9) or Irish (13) bred.
No British bred winner since 2002
6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
0 winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
35 of the last 36 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 3m before
38 of the last 43 (88%) winners had won twice or more over fences
19 of the last 22 (88%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
24 of the last 26 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989
Willie Mullins has never won this race

  • 2025 Winner: Caldwell Potter (11/4jfav)
  • Trainer: Paul Nicholls
  • Jockey: Harry Cobden

2:55pm – Thatprizeguy Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV

21/22 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
15/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Finished first or second last time out
13/22 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
11/22 – Aged 5 years-old
7/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 15)
23 of the last 26 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
18 of the last 28 (64%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
27 of the last 34 (79%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
11 of the last 13 winners ran in bumpers before (9 winning at least once)
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 26 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 29 runnings
Just six Irish winners since 1978 (5 from 37 this century) – but have won the last 3
Irish have won just 7 of the last 48 runnings (but 5 of the last 6)
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 25 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 2-from-8 since 2016
3 of the last 4 winners rated between 147-149
3 of the last 4 favourites have won
Respect JP McManus-owned runners (7 wins), including 3 of the last 4 (all 7 returned fav)

  • 2025 Winner: Salvator Mundi (7/2)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

3:30pm – JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/22 – Raced within the last 30 days
19/22 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
19/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
18/22 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
12/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)
7/22 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 total and winning-most trainer)
4/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
35 of the last 38 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
27 of the last 33 (82%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
14 of the last 30 (47%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
21 of the last 30 (70%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
15 of the last 21 (71%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
29 of the last 34 (85%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
Respect French breds (the last 8 winners)
11 of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
Joseph O’Brien runners are 2-from-3
Jonbon has won the last 2 runnings
All winners since 2006 aged 9 or younger

  • 2025 Winner: Jonbon (4/6 fav)
  • Trainer: Nicky Henderson
  • Jockey: Nico de Boinville

4:05pm – Randox Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

20/22 – Aged 10 or younger
19/22 – Raced within the last 34 days
18/22 - Didn’t win last time out
15/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/22 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
12/22 – Unplaced last time out
11/22 – Raced within the last 23 days
5/22 – Trained by the Bowen yard
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22 - Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 6)
2/22 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
6 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 8 of the last 12 winners between them
7 of the last 11 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 11 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 18 (44%) winners raced in last year’s race
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 32 (48%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 6 Irish-trained winners since 1979, but 3 of the last 6
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (124 have tried) since 1994

  • 2025 Winner: Gentleman De Mee (14/1)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Mark Walsh

4:40pm – Oddschecker Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

18/22 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/22 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
12/22 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
10/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Favourites that won
3/22 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 11)
2/22 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/22 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
2/22 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 13 runnings)
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (89%)
25 of the last 29 (86%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 32 (66%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
15 of the last 31 (48%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
17 of the last 25 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

  • 2025 Winner: Julius Des Pictons (14/1)
  • Trainer: Jamie Snowden
  • Jockey: Gavin Sheehan

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Aintree Day One Stats and Trends: Thursday 9th April 26

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Here at GeeGeez, we give you all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races at Aintree on the opening day of their 2026 Grand National Festival (Thursday 9th April) – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Once the final runners are out, you can apply these stats to the entries to put history on your side.

Aintree Trends (ITV/Racing TV) - Thursday 9th April 2026

1:45pm – Boodles Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

18/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
17/22 – Placed in the top three last time out
15/22 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
10/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Won by trainer Alan King (4-from-7 since 2007)
4/22 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
4/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22 - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 of last 7)
17/20 – Won at least twice over hurdles
16/20 – Retuned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Previous Grade 1 or 2 winners that season
14/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins, Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
13/20 - Winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
13/20 – Ran at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/20 – Finished in the top 3 in the Triumph Hurdle
12/17 – Began their careers in France
15 of the last 20 had won a graded race that season
Horses rated 152+ are 5 from 8 (since 2007)
Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 9 runnings
Just 4 of the last 24 winners were Irish-trained
French-bred horses have won 15 of the last 26 (58%) runnings – including 8 of the last 10
Just 6/35 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

  • 2025 Winner: Murcia (11/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

2.20pm – William Hill Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m4f ITV

16/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – From the top 3 in the market
13/15 – Rated 150+
12/16 – Ran 8 or less times over hurdles
12/14 – Ran between 4-5 times over fences
11/16 – Ran in the Arkle (6) or Golden Miller (5) at Cheltenham
9/11 – Won exactly once over fences
8/12 – Aged 6 years-old
4/9 – Irish winners (last 3)
1/10 – Won by a 5 year-old
0/7 – Mare winners
0/11 – Winning favourite (1 of the last 16)
Paul Nicholls runners are 0-17
Willie Mullins has won the last 2 runnings

  • 2025 Winner: Impaire Et Passe (9/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

2:55pm – Racing Welfare Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

20/22 – Didn’t win last time out
16/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
14/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
8/22 – Winning favourites (7 of the last 10)
7/22 – Aged in double-figures
5/22 - Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (6 wins in total)
5/11 – Were the top-rated horse in the field
4/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/11 – Won that season’s King George VI Chase
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners aged 9 or younger
12 of the last 15 winners returned 7/2 or shorter
9 of the last 12 winners top two on BHA ratings
7 of the last 10 market leaders (favs) have won
All of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6
26/41 (63%) winners ran in that season’s King George
26/41 (63%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
14/28 (50%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
Just 6 of the last 29 winners were Irish-trained (only 3 in the last 11)
6 of the last 13 winners had headgear
12 of the last 15 winners were favourite or second favourite
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 14 of the last 32 (44%) renewals and 7 of the last 15 (47%)
6 of the last 14 winners had run in this race before
No last-time out winner since 2010
Harry Coden (2) and Nico de Boinville (2) have won 4 of the last 7

  • 2025 Winner: Gaelic Warrior (11/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Patrick Mullins

3:30pm – Randox Foxhunters´ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV

20/22 – Aged 9 or older (Just 3 of the last 40 winners were younger than 9)
16/22 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/22 – Aged in double-figures
9/22 – Won last time out
9/22 – Ran in the Cheltenham St James’s Place Hunters’ Chase last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners were aged 10 or older
Irish-trained runners have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
5 of the last 11 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
22 of the last 32 (69%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
25 of the last 31 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 4 of the last 41 winners were aged younger than 9
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
12 of the last 20 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 14 of the last 23 (61%) renewals
Owner JP McManus has won 3 of the last 10
2 of the last 8 ridden by James King

  • 2025 Winner: Gracchus De Balme (22/1)
  • Trainer: J J O’Shea
  • Jockey: Mr Huw Edwards

4:05pm – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

21/22 – Aged 8 or younger
18/22 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
12/22 – Irish-trained winners, plus 22 of the last 48
7/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (6 of the last 14)
6/22 – Won last time out
16 of the last 17 winners from the top 3 in the betting
27 of the last 31 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
47 of the last 48 winners aged 8 or younger
16 of the last 31 (52%) winners trained in Ireland
32 of the last 48 (67%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
9 of the last 15 winners (60%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
Just 1 of the last 48 winners aged 10+
29 of the last 31 winners aged 8 or younger
16 of the last 19 winners (including last 13) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 24 (38%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 6 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 4 won
The last 17 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Just 4 winning outright favourites since 2000
Every past British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 36 runnings
Just 2 of the last 20 Champion Hurdle runners-up to race have won
The last 3 winners aged 6
Willie Mullins has won the last 2 (3 of the last 9)
Gordon Elliott has never won this race

  • 2025 Winner: Lossiemouth (5/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

4:40pm – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

20/22 – Aged 9 or younger
19/22 – Carried 11-1 or less
16/22 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Unplaced last time out
12/22 – Aged 7 or younger
10/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Irish-trained winners
17 of the last 23 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
20 of the last 24 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 3 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 17 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 19 of the last 27 (70%) runnings
22 of the last 25 (88%) winners carried 11-2 or less
7 of the last 26 (27%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
10 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
7 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred
Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 & 2023 and 4 placed horses
No winning favourite in the last 11 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners carried 10-10 or less
Brian Hughes has won 2 of the last 9
Sans Bruit (Paul Nicholls) has won the last 2 runnings

  • 2025 Winner: Sans Bruit (5/1)
  • Trainer: Paul Nicholls
  • Jockey Harry Cobden

 

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2026 Irish Grand National Trends

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Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2026 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.

The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday, which this year falls on 6th April 2025. While several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – I Am Maximus, Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.

But this year the Irish National comes BEFORE the Aintree Grand National, which is on 11th April.

Regarding the stats - did you know?

The 19 of the last 22 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 16 of the last 22 successful horses were Irish-bred.

We’ve also seen just three winning favourites in the last 22 renewals, while in 2021 we saw a 150/1 winner of the race - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN - and 11 of the last 22 returned 20/1+.

To prove any horse really can win this National.

I Am Maximus (2023) gave Willie Mullins just his second win in the race but also provided Paul Townend with his first. As mentioned he went onto win the Aintree Grand National the following season.

In 2024 Intense Raffles won the Irish National, but despite being well-fancied for the Aintree National was pulled up.

While last year (2025) the Rebecca Curtis-trained Haiti Couleurs raided Ireland to win the Irish Grand National - he went onto win the Welsh National the following season (2025/26)

Recent Irish Grand National Winners

2025 - HAITI COULEURS (13/2)
2024 - INTENSE RAFFLES (13/2)
2023 – I AM MAXIMUS (8/1)
2022 – LORD LARIAT (40/1)
2021 - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN (150/1)
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav)
2018 - GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1)
2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)

Irish Grand National Betting Trends

20/22 – Won over at least 3m previously
20/22 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
19/22 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
19/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
16/22 – Irish bred
16/22 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
16/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price
14/22 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
13/22 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Finished fourth or better last time out
11/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/22 – Rated between 130-137
5/22 – Won by an English-based trainer
5/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/22 – Winning favourites (3 in the last 11)
2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2007 & 2014)
2/22 – Trained by Thomas Gibney (2 in last 13)
Trainer Dermot A McLoughlin has trained 2 of the last 5
Trainer Willie Mullins has trained 2 of the last 6
Trainer Gordon Elliott has only won the race once (2018, General Principle)
Only 5 winners since 1996 have carried 11st 1lb+ (but 2 of the last 3 carried 11-1+)
11 of the last 22 winners returned 20/1 +
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 25/1
Only 4 British-trained winners since 2005
Only 4 horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Intense Raffles (2024), I Am Maximus (2023), Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)

 

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Sat TV Trends: 4th April 2026

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The ITV horse racing cameras are at Haydock and Musselburgh this Saturday to take in SEVEN LIVE races across the two venues.

At Haydock the Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final Handicap at 2:05pm is one of the features.

While at Musselburgh there are four LIVE ITV races - that include the Queen's Cup Handicap over 1m6f - a race Wise Eagle won in 2023 and is back for more in 2026.

As always, we've got all the key trends and stats for each of the LIVE ITV Racing contests.

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2:12 – Pertemps Network Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 1m7f144y ITV

9 previous runnings
Trainers Harry Derham (2), Gary Moore, Neil King, Dan Skelton, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Tom George and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the race before
7/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Winners carried 10-13 or less in weight (last two 12st)
5/9 – Carried 10-8 or less
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/9 – Winners returned between 8/1 and 11/1
4/9 – Rated between 115-119
4/9 – Irish Bred
3/9 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Ridden by Paul O’Brien
5 of the last 6 winners aged 5 or 6
Trainer Chris Gordon has a 43% SR with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 25% SR with his hurdlers at the track

2:46 – Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

9/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
7/9 – Finished in the top three last time out
6/9 – Carried 11-3 or more in weight
5/9 – Had run at the track before
5/9 – Rated between 121-126
4/9 – Unplaced favourites
3/9 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/9 – Ridden by Jonjo O’Neill Jr
Secret Trix (11/1) won the race in 2024
2 of the last 6 winners ridden by a claimer
Trainer Chris Gordon has a 43% SR with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 25% SR with his hurdlers at the track

3:20 – Unibet Middle Distance Veteran’s Handicap Chase Cl2 (9yo+) 2m4f ITV

2 previous renewals
Both winners aged 10
The Flier Begley (5/1) won this in 2025
Numitor (100/30 fav) won this in 2024
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 26% SR with his chasers at the track

3:55 – JCB Fastrac Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl4 (5yo+ 0-110) 2m4f ITV

3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
Trainer Ewan Whillans, Sam England and Ryan Potter have won the race before

MUSSELBURGH Horse Racing Trends (Racing TV/ITV)

1:25 – Virgin Bet A Good Bet Royal Mile Handicap (Class 3) (3yo) 1m ITV

3 previous runnings
Trainers Charlie Johnston, Karl Burke and Richard Fahey have won the race in the past
3/3 - winners came between stalls 6-8
3/3 - winners carried 9-7 or more
3/3 - winners returned 4/1 or shorter
Trainer William Haggas has an 44% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has an 28% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 2-24 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Danny Tudhope has a 31% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track

1:55 – Livescore Bet Silver Arrow Handicap Cl3 (4yo+) 7f ITV

10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Drawn 4 or lower
9/11 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/11 – Had won over 7f before
9/11 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
8/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (1 win)
7/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years old
6/11 – Run at Musselburgh before (5 won)
6/11 – Winners stalls 1 or 2
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Won by trainers David & Nicola Barron (2 of the last 3)
Persuasion (18/1) won this race in 2025
Gweedore was 2nd in 2025
Last 9 winners from stall 5 or lower
8 of the last 9 winners stalls 1, 2 or 4

2:30 – Virgin Bet Goliath Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

No past winners
Trainer Karl Burke has a 33% (4-12) SR with is 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer James Owen has a 60% (3-5) SR with his 4+yolds at the track

3:05 – Virgin Bet Daily Price Boost Queen's Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

7/9 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/9 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 – Had run at Musselburgh before
5/9 – Returned a double-figure price
2/9 – Won by the Johnston yard
2/9 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope (2 of last 3)
1/9 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 7 winners aged 5 or 6
Wise Eagle (9/1) won the race in 2023
Trainer Adam Nicol is 5 from 14 with his 4 year-olds at the track (36%) (and won the race in 2023)
Trainer Karl Burke has a 33% SR with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer James Owen has a 60% SR with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainers Mark Johnston (2), Adrian Paul Keatley, Adam Nichol, Archie Watson, Ian Williams, JP Shanahan, Brian Ellison and Jim Goldie have won the race before

3:42 – Virgin Bet Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f ITV

12/13 – Won over 5f before
10/13 – Drawn 8 or higher
9/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Rated between 92 and 99
8/13 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/13– Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Ran at the track before
6/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Drawn in stalls 15 (2) or 16 (2)
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Mick Appleby
3/13 – Ridden by a claimer (3 of the last 10)
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 8+
7 of the last 10 winners aged 6 or younger
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 33% SR with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael & David Easterby are just 2-32 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
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Sat TV Trends: 28th March 2026

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This Saturday the ITV Racing cameras head to Doncaster and Kempton to take in EIGHT races across the two venues – with flat racing all the way.

At Doncaster, it’s the start of the flat turf season with the traditional curtain-raiser – the William Hill Lincoln Handicap at 3:35pm – a race trainer William Haggas has won FIVE times.

While at Kempton there are three ITV races too – that include the Listed Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes – where every winner since 2015 has returned 9/2 or shorter.

As always, here at Geegeez we’ve got all the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and put history on your side.

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

1:20 – William Hill Top Price Guarantee EBF Brocklesby Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV

16/18 – Won this on their debut runs
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
10/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Irish bred
5/18 – Horses from stall 2 that finished 1st or 2nd
5/18 – Ridden by a claimer
5/18 – Winning favourites (co & joint)
4/18 – Trained by Bill Turner (6 in total: 1996, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011 & 2013)
3/18 – Winners from stall 2
3/18 – Winners from stall 10
2/18 – Ridden by Charles Bishop (2 of the last 7)
0/18 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Richard Hannon has won 2 of the last 4
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 8 runnings (4 wins in total)
Trainer Dylan Cunha won the race in 2024
5 of the last 7 winners from stalls 5-9 (inc)
7 of the last 8 winners between stalls 5-11 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/2

Note: 2006 running was staged at Redcar, 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

1:50 – William Hill Price Boost Every Day Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

20/21 – Aged 7 or younger
19/21 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
18/21 – Had won no more than 5 times before
16/21 – Had won over 6f before
14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/21 – Rated 101+
13/21 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
13/201 – Had raced at Doncaster before
12/21 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
4/21 – Had won at Doncaster before
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Winning favourites (or joint) (just 1 on the last 10)
7 of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 16 runnings
The last 8 winners between stalls 3-9
4 of the last 8 winners from stalls 4 or 5 (2 each)
The last 5 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)
7 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
Montassib won the race in 2024
Spycatcher won the race in 2025
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

2:25 – William Hill Epic Price Boosts Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

20/23 – Carried 8-13 or more
18/23 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
17/23 – Aged 4 years-old
16/23 – Won over a mile before
15/223 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/23 – Won from a single-figure draw
5/23 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
3/23 – Winning favourites (none in the last 11 runnings)
3/23 – Won last time out
3/23 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 23 years
7 of the last 10 winners aged 4
ALL of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
Two of the last 3 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
Two 50/1 winners in the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 19/1

2:57 – William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV

12/2 – Last ran 4+ months ago
11/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/12 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Rated 106+
10/12 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
5/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/12 – Had won 6+ times before
4/12 – Trained by Roger Varian (4 of last 9)
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of the last 8)
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 5 or lower
4 of the last 10 winners from stall 2
ALL of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

3.32 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
19/22 – Had won over at least 1m before
18/22 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/22 – Having their first run of the flat season
15/22 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/22 – Placed first or second last time out
9/22 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/22 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
6/22 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 11 runnings)
4/22 – Trained by William Haggas (5 in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/22 – Trained by John Quinn
2/22 - Trained by John Gosden
2/22 - Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 4)
2/22 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 5)
1/22 - Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 39 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
Since 1988 only 2 winners aged 7+
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 14/1
Just two 'back-to-back' winners in the past (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)

KEMPTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

2:08 Virgin Bet Queen's Prize Handicap (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV

13/14 - Won no more than 5 times
13/14 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
12/14 - Had won over 1m6f or further
11/14 - Didn’t win last time out
11/14 - Had run at Kempton before
11/14 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 - Rated between 82-90
9/14 - Had won at Kempton in the past
7/14 - Only won between 1-3 times before
6/14 - Favourites that finished 2nd
2/14 - Trained by Roger Charlton
2/14 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/14 – Ridden by Kieran Shoemark
1/14 - Winning favourites
7 of the last 11 winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)

2:42 Virgin Bet A Good Bet Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m3f ITV

19/21 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
16/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
16/21 – Had won between 2-4 times before
15/21 – Rated between 89 and 100
14/21 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/21 – Aged 4 years-old
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
9/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites
2/21– Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)
The last 3 winners all came from stall 6
Last 5 winners carried 9-1 or more
3 of the last 12 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

3:13 Virgin Bet Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV

19/21 – Had won between 2-4 times before
19/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
19/21 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Won by a 4 year-old
17/21 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/21 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
15/21 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/21 – Rated between 90-102
14/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Unplaced in their last race
9/21 – Winning favourites
8/21 – Had run at Kempton before
6/21 – Rated 96 or lower
5/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/21 – Won last time out
7 of the last 16 favourites have won
The last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
Trainer Marco Botti has won 3 of the last 11
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 5
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 9
William Buick has ridden the last 2 winners
3 of the last 10 winners from stall 5
7 of the last 10 winners from stalls 3-6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

 

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2026 Lincoln Handicap Trends

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Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.  

In recent years, the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 years-old, winning 11 of the last 22 renewals, while with FOUR wins in the last 17 runnings trainer William Haggas is one of the men to look out for.

Weight-carried has been a big trend in recent years with 20 of the last 22 winners carrying 9-4 or less, while 10 of the last 22 (45%) were officially rated between 95-100.

Despite, being a competitive handicap the favourites in the betting don’t have too bad a record either with 4 of the last 22 (18%) winning, but also note that 15 of the last 22 favourites were also unplaced - including the 2025 jolly Midnight Gun.

The 2026 Lincoln Handicap will be run on Saturday 28th March at 3:35pm.

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Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends

21/22 – Aged 6 or younger
20/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
19/22 – Had won over at least 1m before
18/22 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/22 – Having their first run of the flat season
15/22 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
15/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/22 – Placed first or second last time out
9/22 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/22 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
6/22 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 in the last 11 runnings)
4/22 – Trained by William Haggas (5 in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/22 – Trained by John Quinn
2/22 - Trained by John Gosden
2/22 - Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 4)
2/22 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 5)
1/22 - Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 39 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
Since 1988 only 2 winners aged 7+
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 14/1
Just two 'back-to-back' winners in the past (Ob, 1906/07 & Babur 1957/58)

Lincoln Handicap Recent Winners

2025 - GODWINSON (15/2)
2024 - MR PROFESSOR (33/1)
2023 – MIGRATION (18/1)
2022 – JOHAN (28/1)
2021 - HAQEEQY (9/2)
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – AUXERRE (5/2 fav)
2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1)
2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1)
2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1)
2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav)
2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav)
2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1)
2007 – VERY WISE (9/1)
2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1)
2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav)
2004 – BABODANA (20/1)
2003 -  PABLO (5/1)

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

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2026 Dubai World Cup Trends

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It's now over 20 years ago since horse-loving and mega-rich HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum had the dream to build a new and exciting race tracks in the heart of Dubai and attract the world’s best thoroughbreds to race for the Dubai World Cup.

Millions of dollars of prize money provided the carrot for trainers around the globe and with the prize now upped to a whopping $10million, from $6 million, for the main race this year’s event is set to be the best yet. 2010 saw the start of a new era with the entire carnival being run for the first time at the newly built Meydan Racecourse, having previously been staged at Nad Al Sheba.

The new futuristic track has cost an estimated $2billion to build and will easily accommodate a bumper 60,000 crowd. 10,000 car park spaces make things easier for visitors, while the track has been built on 76m Sq feet and includes a 12f turf track and an 8.75 Tapeta (AW) course.

This year’s race will be run on Saturday 28th March, the final day of the Dubai Racing Carnival that runs from January and consists of around 10 meetings.

Last year we saw the hot favourite from Japan Forever Young only third, but he's back for more on 2026 - trying to go two places better.

Dubai World Cup Trends (Since run at Meydan 2010)

15/15 - Ran in the last 8 weeks
14/15 - Previous Group/Grade 1 or 2 winners
12/15 - Finished 1st or 2nd in last race
12/15 - Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/15 - Won over 1m2f
9/15 - Favourites unplaced
9/15 - Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
9/15 - Officially rated between 119-123
9/15 - Failed to win last race
9/15 - Aged 5 or older
8/15 - Won at the track
7/15 - Returned a double-figure price
7/15 - From stalls 5-8 (inclusive)
5/15 - Owned by Godolphin (9 wins in total)
4/15 - Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (9 wins in total)
4/15 - Favourites (1 joint)
2/15 - Ridden by Christophe Soumillon
Bob Baffert has won the race 4 times
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 6+
The last 9 winners were aged between 4-6

Trained Dubai World Cup Winners………..

15/29 – Trained in USA (52%)
11/29 – Trained in GB (38%)
2/29 – Trained in Japan (7%)
1/29 – Trained in France (3%)
0/29 - Trained in Ireland (0%)

Previous Dubai World Cup Winners

2025 Hit Show (USA) (5): Florent Geroux / Brad H Cox 66/1
2024 Laurel River (USA) (6): Tadhg O'Shea / Bhupat Seemar  17/2
2023 - Ushba Tesoro (JPN) (6): Yuga Kawada / Noboru Takagi - 10/1
2022 - Country Grammer (USA) (5): Frankie Dettori / Bob Baffert - 15/2
2021 - Mystic Guide (USA) (4): Luis Saez / Mike Stidham - 6/4 (fav)
2020 - No race (Covid)
2019 – Thunder Snow (UAE) (5): Christophe Soumillon / Saeed Bin Suroor – 4/1
2018 – Thunder Snow (UAE) (4): Christophe Soumillon / Saeed Bin Suroor – 8/1
2017 - Arrogate (USA) (4) : Mike E Smith / Bob Baffert - 1/3 (fav)
2016 – California Chrome (USA) (5) : Victor Espinoza / Art Sherman – 15/8 (jfav)
2015 – Prince Bishop (UAE) (8) : William Buick / Saeed Bin Suroor – 14/1
2014 – African Story (UAE) (7) : Silvestre de Sousa / Saeed Bin Suroor – 12/1
2013 – Animal Kingdom (USA) (5) : Joel Rosario/ Graham Motion – 11/2
2012 – Monterosso (UAE) (5): Mickael Barzalona/M Al Zarooni – 20/1
2011 - Victoire Pisa (JPN (4): Mirco Demuro/Katsuhiko Sumii – 12/1
2010 - Gloria de Campeao (FRA) (6): T. J. Pereira/Pascal Bary – 16/1
2009 - Well Armed (USA) (6): Aaron Gryder/Eoin G. Harty – 10/1
2008 – Curlin (USA) (4): Robby Albarado/Steve Asmussen – 4/11 (fav)
2007 – Invasor (USA) (5): Fernando Jara/K McLaughlin – 5/4 (fav)
2006 – Electrocutionist (UAE) (5): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor – 5/4 (fav)
2005 - Roses in May (USA) (5): John Velazquez/Dale Romans – 11/8 (fav)
2004 - Pleasantly Perfect (USA) (6): Alex Solis/Richard Mandella – 5/2
2003 - Moon Ballad (UAE) (4): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor – 11/4
2002 - Street Cry (UAE) (4): Jerry Bailey/Saeed bin Suroor – 9/2
2001 - Captain Steve (USA) (4): Jerry Bailey/Bob Baffert – 7/4 (jfav)
2000 - Dubai Millennium (UAE) (4): Frankie Dettori/Saeed bin Suroor -
1999 – Almutawakel (UAE) (4): Richard Hills/Saeed bin Suroor -
1998 - Silver Charm (USA) (4): Gary Stevens/Bob Baffert -
1997 – Singspiel (GB) (5): Jerry Bailey/Michael Stoute -
1996 – Cigar (USA) (6): Jerry Bailey/Bill Mott -

 

Sat TV Trends: 21st March 2026

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This Saturday the ITV Racing action comes from Kelso, Newbury and Bangor – with jumping all the way.

There are TEN live ITV races spread out over the three venues – where you can use our key trends and stats to help whittle down the runners.

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

1:15 – Castle Windows Newbury Anniversary Novices’ Hurdle

(GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

8/9 – Aged 5 or 6
6/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time
6/9 – Won just once over hurdles
5/9 - Irish bred
5/9 – Winning favourites
Chris Gordon has trained 2 of the last 5 winners
3 of the last 4 winners ridden by a claiming jockey

1:50 – BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV4

5 previous runs
5/5 – Aged between 4-6
4/5 – Carried 10-10+
4/5 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Won with exactly 11-11
1/5 – Winning favourite
Tim Vaughan won the race in 2025
Trainer SRB Crawford won the race in 2024
Trainer Tom Lacey won the race in 2023
Trainer Sam Thomas won the race in 2022
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Philips Hobbs & Johnson White have a 24% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Neil King has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track

2:25 – BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged 7 or older
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Favourites finished first or second
8/11 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
8/11 - Won no more than 3 times over fences
7/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/11 – Had run over fences at Newbury before
6/11 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 8)
2/11 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 3)
Harry Sketon has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Heltenham won the race in 2024 and 2023

3:00 - British EBF BetVictor "NH" Novices' Mares' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (Series Final) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

11/13 - Carried 11-3 or less in weight
11/13- Won 1-2 times before
10/13 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/13 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
9/13 - Had not run at Newbury before
9/13 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/13 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/13 - Placed favourites
7/13 - Irish bred winners
6/13 - Aged 5 years-old
6/13 - Ran at Doncaster (4) or Exeter (2) last time out
5/13 - Won last time out
5/13 - winning favourites
2/13 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton

3:35 – Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (GBB Race) Cl2 (4-5 yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4

6/6 – Aged 4 or 5
6/6 – Returned 17/2 or shorter
5/6 – Carried 11st or more
3/6 – Trained by Harry Fry
3/6 – Winning favourites
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 21% SR with his NH Flat runners here and also won this race in 2023

Kelso Horse Racing Trends

1:00 – BetWright Beeswing Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

Just 1 previous running
2025: Lavida Adiva (Ruth Jefferson)
Trainer Nicky Richards is 14-70 (20%) hurdlers at the track

1:30 – BetWright Handicap Hurdle (Go North Cab On Target Series Final) (GBB Race) (Cl2) (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

Just 3 past runnings
No winning favourite
Trainers Lucinda Russell, Susan Corbett and Sue Smith have won this race before
All 3 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13
All 3 winners aged 6-8
2 of the last 3 winners aged 8
2/3 winners ridden by a conditional jockey
Starlyte won the race in 2025
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 44% SR with their hurdlers at Kelso

2:10 – BetWright Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

3 previous running
Trainer Fergal O’Brien won the race in 2023 and 2024
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022
2 of the last 3 winning favourites
All 3 winners aged between 5-6 years-old
2 of the last 3 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
All 3 winners carried 10-10+
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill and AJ O’Neill are 3-9 (33%) with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track

2:40 – BetWright Novices’ Handicap Chase (Go North Forgive ‘N Forget Series Final) (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV4

No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% SR with this chasers at the track
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore have a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ewan Whillans is only 1-28 (4%) with his chasers at the track
Jockey Tristan Durrell is 3-6 (50%) over fence at this track

Bangor Horse Racing Trends

3:20 – Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 3 1/2f ITV4

Just 3 past runnings
All 3 winners aged 7
All 3 winners carried 10-13 to 11-3
All 3 winners 9/2 or shorter
2/3 winners fav (or joint fav)
The Four Sixes won this race last season
Both winners carried between 10-13 and 11-3
Trainer Olly Murphy won the race in 2025
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 2024
Trainer Donald McCain won the race in 2023
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies have a 67% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

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2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2026)

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Each day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race.

Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know - All of the last 23 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2026 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2026

Friday 13th March 2026 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026

1:20 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2025 Winner: PONIROS (100/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill Jr
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

• 24 of the last 32 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 17 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
• French-breds have filled 16 of the last 27 places (last 11 runnings)
• 15 of the last 21 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (6 winners), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Alan King-trained runners
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it, 2024 winner Majborough was 3rd in it)
• JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 10 winners
• 2 of the last 6 winners were fillies
• 9 of the last 14 winners ran in the Spring Hurdle (3 winners)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had raced by Christmas time
• 8 of the last 11 winners began their careers in France
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 12 years
• Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 6 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)

Negatives….

• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Just 3 of the last 21 winner returned bigger than 12/1 – last year’s winner 100/1
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16
• Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)

2:00 – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

2025 Winner: KARGESE (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 13 of the last 19 runnings
• 10 of the last 11 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Dan Skelton (4)
• Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 16 runnings
• 20 of the last 25 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
• 15 of the last 20 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 9 of the last 18 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 8 of the last 17 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 20 of the last 27 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 13 of the last 27 winners aged 5
• 8 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham before
• 13 of the last 19 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
• 15 of the last 20 winners were priced in double-figures
• 14 of the last 22 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 13 of the last 25 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 14 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 5 of the last 10 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts) since 2004-2014
• Willie Mullins is 6 from 61 (+42.25pts) – he’s won 8 of the last 16
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
• 14 of the last 22 winners were ex-flat horses
• No back-to-back winners ever since first run in 1920

Negatives….

• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
• Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-27) since 2011
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
• Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 40 in last 18 runnings
• Since 1960 only 6 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 11 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 4 winners have defied this stat
• Just 3 winning outright favourites in last 24
• Just 4 of the last 18 winners returned a single-figure price

2:40 - Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2025 Winner: DINOBLUE (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• Only 5 previous runnings
• Willie Mullins trained 3 winners
• Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
• 4 of the last 5 winners have been 2nd favourite
• All 5 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 5 winners rated 150+
• 4 of the 5 winners owned by JP McManus (past 4)
• All 5 winners aged 7-8
• All 5 winners Irish-trained
• 4 of the 5 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
• Just one winning favourite (2025)
Negatives….
• UK-trained runners are 0-16
• 9+ year-olds are 0-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-6

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The 2026 Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

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3:20 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Spa) (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2025 Winner: JASMIN DE VAUX (6/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 21 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 18 of the last 21 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• 3 of the last 5 ran in the Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle (Nat Lacy) DRF
• 17 of the last 21 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 7 of the last 21 winners had run in the Hyde, Bristol or Classic earlier that season
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Point
• Horses rated 152+ are 3-5
• 9 of the last 12 winners trained in Ireland
• 10 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
• 10 of the last 21 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 21 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 16 of the last 21 had run in a race over 3m
• 18 of the last 20 winners were aged 6 (11) or 7 (7) years-old
• 15 of the last 21 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
• 17 of the last 21 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 13 of the last 21 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 20 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 3 runners!)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• No winning fav in the last 11 runnings

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Gordon Elliott is 1-from-16
• Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 21)
• Nicky Henderson is 0-from-15 in the last 13 years
• 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 20)
• Only 4 of the last 20 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

4:00 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

2025 Winner: INOTHERWAYURTHINKIN (15/2)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 21 of the last 26 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 21 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• 25 of the last 26 winners were Grade 1 winners
• Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
• 21 of the last 25 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 21 of the last 25 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 23 of the last 26 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 16 of the last 18 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 18 of the last 29 winners were bred in Ireland
• 18 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 12 of the last 23 winners were favourites (52%)
• 14 of the last 21 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
• ALL of the last 26 winners were aged 9 or younger
• 25 of the last 26 winners aged between 7-9 years-old (12 of last 13 aged 7 or 8)
• 23 of the last 26 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
• 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
• Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
• Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won 6 of the last 7 between them
• The last 7 winners Irish trained (9 of the last 10 Irish-trained too)

Negatives….

• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 79)
• Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
• Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 7 from last 59 – but last year’s winner rated 160
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
• Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
• Just 3 of the last 25 winners placed in the race before
• No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

4:40 - Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

2025 Winner: WONDERWALL (28/1)
Trainer – S Curling
Jockey – Mr R James
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

• 31 of the last 35 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 29 of the last 40 won last time out
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10 or 11
• 15 of the last 18 winners ran in February
• 21 of the last 23 winners Irish or French bred
• The last 19 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
• 8 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 10 of the last 17 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 29 of the last 37 started out in Points or Hunter Chases
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 10 of last 15)
• 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10-11
• 10 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 13, rated 138+)
• 3 back-to-back winners in the last 14
• 4 of the last 19 winners owned by JP McManus
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 49 years aged 12 or older
• 30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 38 runnings
• Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• British bred horses are 1-90 (last 23 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
• Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 276 since 1990
• Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
• Gordon Elliott has never won the race

5:20 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

2025 Winner: WODHOOH (9/2)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Danny Gilligan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 15 of the last 17 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
• 12 of the last 15 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 17 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 3 of the last 8 winners had top-weight
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 to 11-10
• All 17 winners aged 7 or younger (5-7)
• 14 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or 6
• 11 or the last 14 winners rated 138+
• 15 of the last 17 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 7 of the last 12 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 10 of the last 15 (7 making handicap debuts)
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 14 of the 17 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 9 of the 17 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 9 of the 17 winners were rated 133-139
• 9 of the 17 winners returned at a double-figure price (13 of the last 17 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-olds have won 15 of last 17 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 31 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 15 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 13 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 7
• Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 11 of the last 13 between them
• JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 7

Negatives….

• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
• Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 77
• Only one winner in last 14 rated 136 or lower (since become 0-145)
• Just 1 winning fav in the 17-year history (9-15 returned in double-figures)
• Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-121

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