Sat TV Trends: 27th April 2024

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It’s Bet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown Park this Saturday – which marks the final day of the 2023-24 jumps season - while the ITV cameras are also heading to Leicester & Haydock for a couple more races – As always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends ……

Put history on your side – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, here at GeeGeez we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners.

SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 - bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m110y ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged between 4-6 years old
5/5 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Carried 11st 5lbs or more in weight
3/5 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/5 – Ridden by Harry Cobden
2/5 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Jockey Sean Bowen has a 29% return riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Harry Cobden has a 22% return riding over hurdles at the track
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 24% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Harry Fry has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Gary Moore has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling is just 1 from 34 (3%) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 4 from 52 (8%) with his hurdlers at the track

2.25 - bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) (for The Menorah Challenge Trophy) Cl1 2m6f ITV

9/9 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 - Trained by Hobbs (4), Henderson (1) or Nicholls (3)
7/9 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
7/9 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
6/9 – Winning favourites
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/9 – Ran at Aintree last time out
2/9 – Ridden by Bryony Frost
Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
Hewick (6/5 fav) won the race in 2023

3.00 - bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

20/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
20/20 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
18/20 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
17/20 – Aged 9 or younger
17/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
16/20 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
15/20 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
14/20 – Rated 160 or higher
11/20 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/20 – Winning favourite
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Irish bred
6/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 7 times in all)
6/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (inc 5 of last 7)
5/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/20 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville (4 of the last 7)
3/20 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
Jonbon (8/13 fav) won the race last year
Greaneteen won the race in 2021 & 2022

3.35 - bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

19/20 – Had raced in the last 63 days
18/20 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
16/20 – Had won over 3m or further before
16/20 – Aged 9 or younger
15/20 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/20  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/20 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
12/20 – Had raced in the last 25 days
11/20 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/20 – Won with 10st in weight
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20– Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/20 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
3/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/20 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/20– Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/20 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
2/20 - Trained by Alan King (2 of last 4 winners)
1/20 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

Just 1 outright winning favourite since 1990 (Kitty's Light, 2023)
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
11 of the last 16 winners aged 7 or 8
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 7 of the last 20 runnings (35%)
16 of the last 20 (80%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
3 of the last 8 winners were ridden by claiming jockeys

4.45 – bet365 Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f RTV

9/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/9 – Returned 15/ or shorter
8/9 – Had won over 2m4f+ before (fences)
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Won between 0-2 times over fences before
7/9 – Aged 6 or 7
7/9 – Had run at Sandown before
7/9 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
6/9 – Top 3 finish last time out
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Winning distance a neck
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/2

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.45 – Trustatrader Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

9/10 – Won over 7f in the past
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
5/10 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
4/10 – Rated between 95-100 (inc)
3/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 – Trained by John Quinn
Trainer William Haggas has won race in 2016 and 2017
Rainbow Fire won the race in 2023
Boardman won the race in 2022

LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Carling King Richard III Cup Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV

Only one past running
Al Mubhir won the race in 2023
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2023
Trainer William Haggas is 2-from-4 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer William Stone has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ian Williams is just 2-from-25 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

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2024 bet365 Gold Cup Trends

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The Bet365 Gold Cup will be known to older racing fans as The Whitbread, this 3m5 1/2f race is the last big jumping event of the NH season, and being staged on a mixed (jumps/flat) card then for many this signals the real handover between the two codes.

Run at Sandown Park racecourse the staying Handicap Grade Three chase has been won by some leading names over the years, including Desert Orchid, who landed the prize back in 1988. It’s also been a poor race for the favourite in recent times with just one outright winning favourite since 1990, but that was last year with Kitty's Light - while it might pay to note that 25 of the last 32 winners carried less than 11st to victory.

Here at Geegeez we give you all the stats ahead of the 2024 renewal - this year run on Saturday 27th April 2024.

Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners

2023 - KITTY'S LIGHT (11/4 fav)
2022 – HEWICK (16/1)
2021 - POTTERMAN (12/1)
2020 – No Race
2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
2018 – STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)

Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats

19/20 – Had raced in the last 63 days
18/20 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
16/20 – Had won over 3m or further before
16/20 – Aged 9 or younger
15/20 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/20  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/20 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
12/20 – Had raced in the last 25 days
11/20 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/20 – Won with 10st in weight
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20– Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/20 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
3/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/20 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/20– Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/20 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
2/20 - Trained by Alan King (2 of last 4 winners)
1/20 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

Just 1 outright winning favourite since 1990 (Kitty's Light, 2023)
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
11 of the last 16 winners aged 7 or 8
3 of the last 8 winners were ridden by claiming jockeys
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 7 of the last 20 runnings (35%)
16 of the last 20 (80%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
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Sandown TV Trends: Friday 26th April 24

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The ITV cameras head to Sandown Park this Friday (26th April, 2024)– as always on the big days, here at Geegeez we are on hand to take your through the best races from a TRENDS and STATS angle………that include the Bet365 Mile, Classic Trial, Gordon Richard Stakes and the Esher Cup.

Note: The 2023 meeting was called off due to a waterlogged track.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.15 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

9/9 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
9/9 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
8/9 – Returned 13/2 or less in the betting
7/9 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
6/9 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
4/9 – Came from stall 4
2/9 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/9 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2
2022 Winner: Live In The Dream (13/2)
Trainer: Adam West

1.50 - bet365 Esher Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV4

19/19 – Had won no more than twice before
17/19 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
17/19 – Never raced at Sandown before
15/19 – Had between 2-4 runs before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
15/19 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Had won just once before
12/19 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
11/19 – Had won over at least 1 mile before
12/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Raced at Kempton last time out
3/19 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/19 – Trained by the Hannon stable
2/19 – Trained by John Gosden
2/19 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2
2022 Winner: Wanees (100/30)
Trainer: Charles Hills

2.25 - bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV4

18/19 – Officially rated 109 or higher
17/19 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
17/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Had won at least twice (UK) before
15/19 – Had won a Group race before
14/19 – Placed favourites
13/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
8/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/19 – Irish bred
8/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint) (last 3 favs won)
7/19 – Had run at Sandown before
6/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5/19 – Trained by John Gosden
5/19 – Won last time out
3/19 - Ridden Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Ridden by James Doyle
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/4
2022 Winner: Mostahdaf (1/2 fav)
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

3.00 - bet365 Mile (Group 2) Cl1 1m14y ITV4

16/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won a Group race before
15/18 – Had won over a mile before
14/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/18 – Aged 4 years-old
9/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Trained by the Hannon stable
7/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/18 – Horses drawn in stall 3 that finished second
6/18 – Had run at Sandown before
5/18 – Previous Group One winners
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4 of last 11 winners have come from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
2022 Winner: Lights On (17/2 fav)
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute

3.35 - bet365 Classic Trial (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV4

16/18 – Won between 1-3 times before
15/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Never raced at Sandown before
13/18 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
12/18 – Had won over at least 1m before
9/18 – Irish bred winners
8/18 – Raced at Leopardstown (2), Curragh (2) or Newbury (4) last time out
8/18 – Horses drawn in stall 4 that finished in the first 3
7/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by John Gosden
3/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/18 – Winners from stall 4
3/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/18 – Winners from stall 3
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
2022 Winner: Westover (5/1)
Trainer: Ralph Beckett

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2024 Punchestown Gold Cup Trends

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Staged at the five-day Punchestown Festival in April/May 2024 the Punchestown Gold Cup is a Grade One contest run over 3m1f.

The race version we see today was first run back in 1999 and since then has been won by some leading names, including Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Imperial Call, Kicking King, War Of Attrition & Don Cossack - while the 2012 Grand National winner, Neptune Collonges, took this twice before he landed the Aintree marathon.

Last year's winner was the Martin Brassil-trained Fastorslow, who lowered the colours of that year's Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs.

Did you know – 14 of the last 20 Punchestown Gold Cup winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old, while 15 of the last 20 winners were Irish-trained?

Here at GeeGeez, we take a look back at recent Punchestown Gold Cup winners, plus highlight the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 28th April 2024.

Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2023 – FASTORSLOW (20/1)
2022 – ALLAHO (6/5 fav)
2021 – CLAN DES OBEAUX (10/3)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

17/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/20 – Aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Irish-trained winners
14/20 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/20 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
10/20 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
5/20 - Trained by Willie Mullins (5 of the last 10)
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 6/1
9 of the last 18 favourites have won
10 of the last 15 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 3 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
10 of the last 24 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase

 

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2024 Sagaro Stakes Betting Trends

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Run at Ascot racecourse this Group 3 flat race is staged for horses aged 4 or older and run over a trip of 2m.

Here at Geegeez, we take a look back at recent winners and give you the key trends ahead of the 2024 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 1st May 2024

Recent Sagaro Stakes Winners

2023 - COLTRANE (11/4)
2022 - PRINCESS ZOE (17/2)
2021 - STRADIVARIUS (4/7 fav)
2020 – NAYEF ROAD (8/1)
2019 – DEE EX BEE (11/8 fav)
2018 – TORCEDOR (9/4 fav)
2017 – SWEET SELECTION (15/2)
2016 – MIZZOU (11/4)
2015 – MIZZOU (4/1)
2014 – TAC DE BOISTRON (7/2)
2013 – ESTIMATE (2/1 fav)
2012 – COLOUR VISION (9/2)
2011 – ASKAR TAU (4/1)
2010 – ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (16/1)
2009 – PATKAI (2/5 fav)
2008 – SHIPMASTER (4/1)
2007 – TUNGSTEN STRIKE (9/2)
2006 – COVER UP (4/1)
2005 – ALCAZAR (5/1)
2004 – RISK SEEKER (11/2)
2003 – ALCAZAR (7/2)

Sagaro Betting Trends and Stats

18/21 – Had won at least 3 times before
17/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Had won a Group race before
15/21 – Rated 108 or higher
14/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/21 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
14/21 – Had won over at least 2m (flat) before
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Placed favourites
8/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
8/21 – Winning distance – ½ or less
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Raced at Nottingham last time out
3/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/21 – Went onto win the Ascot Gold Cup (2 of last 9)
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 9/2

Note: The 2012 renewal was staged at Kempton, 2006 & 2005 at Lingfield, while the 2020 was run at Newcastle

2024 Punchestown Festival Trends

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A huge week of Irish racing ahead with the 5-day Punchestown Festival (30th April-4th May 2024). Like all big race meetings, we've got all the main trends and stats for the key races through the week – hopefully, these to help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners……………….

DAY ONE – Tuesday 30th April 2024

3.40 – KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m 1/2f

10 of the last 18 runnings went to the favourite
11 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
15 of the last 18 recent winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
10 of the last 18 returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
No British-trained winner for 24 years (18 runners)
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners have only followed-up 4 times
16 of the last 17 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins won the prize in 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021 & 2023
Trainer Noel Meade has won the race in 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
Trainer Jessie Harrington won the race in 2013 and 2016
17 of the last 22 winners came 1st or 2nd last time out
2023 Winner: Facile Vega (4/6 fav)

5.25 – William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

9 of the last 20 runnings went to the favourite
19 of the last 24 winners came from the first three in the betting
French breds have won 11 of the last 16 runnings
17 of the last 21 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12 of the last 21 had previously won at the track
All of the last 21 winners had won before over 2m
16 of the last 21 came 1st or 2nd last time out
15 of the last 21 were Irish-trained winners
15 of the last 21 were aged 9 or younger
5 of the last 18 finished unplaced that season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham
15 of the last 20 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
7 of the last 20 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 & 2009
Willie Mullins won the race in 2010, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 & 2023
Paul Townend has ridden the last four winners
Energumene won the race in 2022 and 2023
2023 Winner: Energumene (2/7 fav)

DAY TWO – Wednesday 1st May 2024

5.25 – Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f

Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2023 – FASTORSLOW (20/1)
2022 – ALLAHO (6/5 fav)
2021 – CLAN DES OBEAUX (10/3)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

17/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/20 – Aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Irish-trained winners
14/20 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/20 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
10/20 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
5/20 - Trained by Willie Mullins (5 of the last 10)
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 6/1
9 of the last 18 favourites have won
10 of the last 15 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 3 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
10 of the last 24 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase

DAY THREE – Thursday 2nd May 2024

 4.50 – Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase (5yo+) 4m1f

6 winning favourites in the last 17 years (3 join/co)
Trainer Enda Bolger has won 13 of the last 24 runnings
11 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 17 carried 12-2 or more
14 of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or older
7 of the last 17 winners ran in the race 12 months ago
21 of the last 28 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
10 of the last 17 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race
Singing Banjo won this race in 2021 and 2nd in 2022
2023 Winner: Vital Island (3/1 fav)

5.25 - Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) 3m

Past Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle Winners

2023 - KLASSICAL DREAM (3/1 jfav)
2022 – KLASSICAL DREAM (11/10 fav)
2021 – KLASSICAL DREAM (5/1)
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (16/1)
2018 – FAUGHEEN (11/2)
2017 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (4/1)
2016 – ONE TRACK MIND (10/1)
2015 – JEZKI (5/2)
2014 – JETSON (20/1)
2013 – QUEVEGA (6/4 fav)
2012 – QUEVEGA (11/10 fav)
2011 – QUEVEGA (8/11 fav)
2010 – QUEVEGA (5/2 fav)
2009 – FIVEFORTHREE (5/4 fav)
2008 – BLAZING BAILEY (10/3 fav)
2007 – REFINEMENT (16/1)
2006 – ASAIN MAZE (8/13 fav)
2005 – CARLYS QUEST (25/1)
2004 – RHINESTONE COWBOY (5/2)
2003 – HOLY ORDERS (6/1)

Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle Betting Trends

16/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival earlier that season
15/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Aged 8 or younger
13/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
13/20 – Irish trained winners
10/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
9/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – Winning favourites
7/20 – Ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out
5/20 – Ran in the Mares’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
Only one Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) winner in the last 23 runnings
The market leader has won 11 of the last 22 runnings
11 of the last 21 winners won their previous race
11 of the 26 runnings have been won by a British-trained horse
8 of the last 19 winners ran at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting last time out
13 of the last 20 winners had won a Grade One over 3m+ before

5.25 - Barberstown Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

9 winning favourites in the last 12 runnings
16 of the last 17 winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or older (only 6 of the last 26 aged 6 or younger)
11 of the last 17 were aged either 7 or 8 years-old
25 of the last 27 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
10 of the last 17 winners ran in the Arkle Chase (Cheltenham) that same season
UK-based trainers have won 4 of the last 14 times they have had runners
15 of the last 19 winners had run at least 4 times over fences previously
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 & 2023 (won the last 8)
Paul Townend has ridden the last three winners
2023 Winner: El Fabiolo (1/4 fav)

DAY FOUR – Friday 3rd May 2024

5.25 – PADDY POWER CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

11 of the last 18 favourites (2 joint) have won
10 of the last 16 winners won last time out
15 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or older
15 of the last 24 winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
The current Champion Hurdler is yet to finish out of the top two when running
15 of the last 18 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2023
9 of the last 12 winners returned odds-on in the betting
16 of the last 18 winners were Irish-trained
2023 Winner: State Man (2/5 fav)

6.00 – ALANNA CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m4f

12 of the last 18 favourites have won
12 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 years-old
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins has won 12 of the last 21 runnings
16 of the last 22 winners won last time out
Since 1996 all-bar-two of the winners were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Owner J Donnelly has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
2023 Winner: Impaire Et Passe (1/3 fav)

7.35 – Howden Insurance Brokers INH Flat Race (Grade 1) (4-7yo) 2m

4 winning favourites in the last 18 years (1 joint)
17 of the last 19 were aged 5 or older
The Cheltenham Champion Bumper has produced 16 winners since 1992
17 of the last 31 winners finished 6th or better in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Cheltenham)
30 of the last 31 winners had raced 2 or more times before
Not many mares have run in the race, but 5 have won it since 1994
Trainer Noel Meade won the race in 2004, 2006, 2007
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021 & 2022
The Irish have won 17 of the last 19 runnings
2023 Winner: A Dream To Share (8/11 fav)

DAY FIVE – Saturday 4th May 2024

4.25 – BALLYMORE FOUR YEAR-OLD HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

8 winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
16 of the last 18 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022 & 2023
14 of the last 17 winners ran in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham)
8 of the last 15 winners ran in that season’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle
10 of the last 25 runnings went to a British-trained horse
Owner Rich Ricci has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
2023 Winner: Lossiemouth (1/2 fav)

Sat TV Trends: 20th April 2024

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The ITV horse racing cameras are at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Dubai Duty Free Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track on ITV, including the Greenham Stakes and, like always, we’ve got these LIVE Newbury races covered from a trends and stats angle – fingers crossed they will point you in the direction of a few winners.

While it’s also Scottish Grand National Day up at Ayr – a race trainer Christian Williams has won for the last two years and is sure to be well represented again.

The ITV horse racing cameras are at the Scottish track to take in five races live.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

20/20 – Aged 6 or younger
19/20 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
19/20 – Had won between 2-5 times before
18/20 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
17/20 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
17/20 – Having their first run of the season
16/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/20 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
13/20 – Had raced at Newbury before
11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/20 – Had won a Group race before
7/20 – Raced at Newbury last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 9)
Max Vega won the race in 2022
Jockey Jim Crowley (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have won 5 of the last 9
8 of the last 11 winners drawn in stalls 4 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2.05 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

18/20 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
17/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
17/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/20 – Having their first run of the season
16/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Drawn 5 or higher
15/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/20 – Had won over 7f before
9/20 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Had won at Newbury before
7/20 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
5/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/20 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/20 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/20 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2.40 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

19/20 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
18/20 – Having their first run of the season
17/20 – Won at Listed class or better before
16/20 – Won between 2-4 times before
15/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/20 – Had won a Group race before
10/20 – Won last time out
10/20 – Had won over 7f before
9/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/20 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/20 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/20 – Irish-trained
2/20 – Winners from stall 1
James Doyle has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners
8 of the last 10 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford


3.15 – OLBG Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

20/20 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
17/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/20 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
16/20 – Won over at least 1m before
15/20 – Rated between 85-98
13/20 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
14/20 – Unplaced last time out
12/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/20 – Unplaced favourites
10/20 – Had run at Newbury before
8/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 10)
2/20 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 9)
2/20 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 4)
1/20 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m 1/2f ITV

19/19 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
17/19 – Aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
16/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Rated between 127-139
13/19 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/19 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
11/19 – Had run at Ayr before
4/19 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 6 years)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

1.50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV

12/12 – Aged 9 or younger
12/12 – No more than 3 chase wins
11/12 – French (4) or Irish (7) bred
10/12 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/12 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
8/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Had run at the track before
3/12 – Winning favourites
Trainer Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

2.25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

20/20 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
17/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
16/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/20 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Rated 135 or higher
11/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/20 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
10/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/20 – Irish bred
6/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/20 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
Rubaud (7/2 fav) won the race in 2023
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

3.00 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m 1/2f

10/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/10 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
6/10 – Aged 6 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Had run at Ayr before (2 winners)
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1
Sabrina won the race 12 months ago


3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

19/20 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
18/20 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
17/20 – Aged 8 or older
16/20 – Carried 11-1 or less
17/20 – Coming from a different winning yard
16/20 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
15/20 – French or Irish bred
15/20 – Finished in the first three last time out
14/20 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/20 – Had won over 3m or further
14/20 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
13/20 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/20 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/20 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/20 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/20 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7 winners and 3 wins in total)
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Christian Williams (last 2)
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The last two winners won the Eider Chase earlier that season
2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 19/1
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2025 Scottish Grand National Trends

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The Grand National bandwagon continues this weekend as we get set for the Coral-sponsored SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – this year will now be run on Saturday 19th April 2025, at Ayr racecourse.

As, we all know the main National is the one at Aintree, but the Scottish version is up there as a close second with the Irish and Welsh renewals so it’s still a fascinating race.

Run over 4m, which is around 2 furlongs shorter than last week's Aintree version, but with 27 fences to jump too then it goes without saying stamina will still very much be the order of the day.

Trainer Willie Mullins won the race for the first time with the 6 year-old MacDermott - as the Irish handler added the race to the Aintree Grand National he won a week earlier with I Am Maximus.

There will be a maximum of 30 runners too so – just like all the other Nationals a certain amount of luck is also required for runners and riders to avoid any fallers or loose horses.

However, being first run in 1858 and having a long history then there are also plenty of trends for punters to take in and hopefully use to find the best profiles of past winners.

For example…………………Did you know that ALL of the last 21 winners ran within the last 57 days, while 17 of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or older?

Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats

21/21 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
19/21 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
18/21 - Came from a different stable
18/21 - Carried 11-1 or less
17/21 – Aged 8 or older
17/21 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
16/21 – French or Irish bred
15/21 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/21 – Had won over 3m or further
14/21 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/21 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
14/21 – Carried 10-9 or less
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/21 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/21– Won last time out
7/21 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/21 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/21 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/21 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/21 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/21 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 3 winners)
2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 8 winners)
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 19/1

Recent Scottish Grand National Winners

2024 - MACDERMOTT (18/1)
2023 - KITTY'S LIGHT (4/1 jfav)
2022 – WIN MY WINGS (13/2 cfav)
2021 - MIGHTY THUNDER (8/1)
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003 – RYALUX (15/2)

 

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2024 Craven Stakes Trends

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The bet365 Craven Stakes is the feature contest on the three-day Newmarket April Meeting and is a Group Three race run over 1 mile.

Being for 3 year-old colts and geldings the race is often seen as an early season trial for the 2,000 Guineas, run the following month – although, the last horse to win both races was Haafhd in 2004. The 2018 winner - Masar - went onto win the Epsom Derby.

Here at GeeGeez, we looks back at recent winners and gives you the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal – this year staged on Thursday 18th April.

Recent Craven Stakes Winners

2023 - INDESTRUCTIBLE (8/1)
2022 - NATIVE TRAIL (1/4 fav)
2021 - MASTER OF THE SEAS (11/4 fav)
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – SKARDU (3/1)
2018 – MASAR (7/2)
2017 – EMINENT (8/1)
2016 – STORMY ANTARCTIC (9/2)
2015 – KOOL COMPANY (14/1)
2014 – TOORMORE (Evs fav)
2013 – TORONADO (8/11 fav)
2012 –TRUMPET MAJOR (9/2)
2011 – NATIVE KHAN (8/11 fav)
2010 – ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (10/11 fav)
2009 – DELEGATOR (4/6 fav)
2008 - TWICE OVER (9/4)
2007 – ADAGIO (5/4 fav)
2006 – KILLYBEGS (9/2)
2005 – DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT (12/1)
2004 – HAAFHD (10/3)
2003 – HURRICANE ALAN (9/1)

Craven Stakes Betting Trends

18/20 – Having their first run of the season
16/20 – Rated 110 or higher
15/20 – Yet to win over a mile
15/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
15/20 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
14/20 – Had won over 7f before
14/20 – Had won no more than twice before
12/20 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
11/20 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (5 won)
8/20 – Winning favourites
8/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
6/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon (4 of the last 12)
3/20 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of the last 5)
2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
1/20 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5 or less
4 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Trainer John Gosden has only won the race once (1993)
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 9/2

 

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2024 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends

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The bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes is the feature contest on the opening day of the Newmarket Craven Meeting and is a Group Three race run over 1m1f on Wednesday 17th April 2024.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal as the Charlie Appleby yard and jockey William Buick look to win the race for a third year in-a-row.

Recent Earl Of Sefton Stakes Winners

2023 - Ottoman Fleet 6/4 fav
2022 - Master Of The Seas 5/4 fav
2021 - My Oberon 7/1
2020 - Zabeel Prince 9/2 cfav
2019 - Forest Rnger 8/1
2018 - Calderon 10/1
2017 - Mahsoob 100/30

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Betting Trends

16/16 – Had won over a least a mile in the past
15/16 – Favourites placed in the top three
13/16 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
13/16 – Had raced at the track before (7 won)
12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Won at least 3 times in the past
11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past
9/16 – Had won a Group/Listed race before
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3)
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
3/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
4/16 – Ridden by William Buick
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 2-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

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2024 Nell Gwyn Stakes Trends

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The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes is run on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course in April over a distance of 7f. The Group 3 contest is for 3 year-old fillies only and was first run in 1961 – the race is also often seen as a trial race for the 1,000 Guineas run the following month at the same track - the last horses to win both races were Speciosa in 2006 and Cachet in 2022.

Did you know? 19 of the last 0 winners were having their first runs of the season

Here at GeeGeez we look back at recent winners and gives you all the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 17th April.

Recent Nell Gywn Stakes Winners

2023 - MAMMAS GIRL (16/1)
2022 - CACHET (15/8 fav)
2021 - SACRED (6/1)
2020 – No Race
2019 – QABALA (10/3 fav)
2018 – SOLILOQUY (4/1)
2017 – DABAN (12/1)
2016 – NATHRA (5/4 fav)
2015 – OSAILA (4/1)
2014 – SANDIVA (7/2 fav)
2013 – HOT SNAP (10/1)
2012 – ESENTEPE (28/1)
2011 – BAREFOOT LADY (14/1)
2010 – MUSIC SHOW (6/1)
2009 – FANTASIA (4/5 fav)
2008 – INFALLIBLE (7/2 fav)
2007 – SCARLET RUNNER (15/2)
2006 – SPECIOSA (9/1)
2005 – KAREN’S CAPER (15/2)
2004 – SILCA’S GIFT (25/1)
2003 – KHULOOD (15/8 fav)

Nell Gywn Stakes Betting Trends and Stats

19/20 – Were having their first run of the season
17/20 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
15/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
13/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/20 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
10/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/20 – Had won over 7f before
10/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/20 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
7/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Trained by John Gosden (5 wins in total)
3/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon (4 in total for the yard)
2/20 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/20 – Ridden by William Buick
2/20 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

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Aintree Day Three Stats and Trends: Saturday 13th April 24

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As we head into the last day of the 2024 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 13th April 2024 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Liverpool Hurdle and The Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent events, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

As always here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Good Luck!

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Aintree Horse Racing Trends

SATURDAY, 13th April 2024 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.20pm – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV

 

9/10 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/10 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
9/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
8/10 – Carried 10-12 in weight
8/10 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Rated between 131-138
7/10 – Placed favs (top 4)
7/10 – Had never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
5/10 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Finished in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
2/10 – Trained and ridden by Dan and Harry Skelton
2/10 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
17/20 – Raced 39 days or less ago
17/20 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
15/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (11 of last 13)
12/20 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
9/20 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (8 of the last 12 favs have won)
9/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/20 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 6)
2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 12 runnings)
Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
20 of the last 26 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
13 of the last 14 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
19 of the last 25 (76%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
16 of the last 26 (62%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 19 (56%) runnings between them
8 of the last 13 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 27 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 34 years
Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
Front runners in the race have a bad recent record

2023 Winner: Irish Point (5/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

17/20 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/20 – Didn’t win last time out
15/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
14/20 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
12/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/20 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
12/20 – Unplaced in their last race
4/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Favourites that won
3/20 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 13)
2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 of the last 24 winners were aged 10+
Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 19 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 46 runnings
9 of the last 13 (69%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 16 winners didn’t win earlier that season
8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m before
Only 2 of the last 17 winners won last time out

2023 Winner: Midnight River (15/2)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton

3.05pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

16/19 – Ran within the last 30 days
15/19 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
15/19 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
13/19 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
13/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/19 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/19 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9/19 – Won their last race
9/19 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/19 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/19 – Irish-trained winners
2/19 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (last two)
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
16 of the last 19 (84%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18 of the last 19 (95%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
15 of the last 19 (79%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 19 (74%) were favourite or second favourite
8 of the last 14 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7 of the last 14 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 8 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 6-from-6
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-8
Just 3 of the last 19 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
Just 2 winners rated below 155 in the last 19 runnings
No 5 year-old winners

2023 Winner: Sire Du Berlais (16/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Mark Walsh

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

        • 31/32 – Officially rated 137 or higher
        • 30/32 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
        • 28/32 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
        • 28/32 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
        • 25/32 – Returned a double-figure price
        • 25/32 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
        • 25/32 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
        • 25/32 – Aged 9 or older
        • 23/32 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
        • 21/32 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
        • 20/32 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
        • 20/32 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
        • 19/32 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
        • 18/32 – Placed favourites
        • 18/32 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
        • 16/32 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
        • 13/32 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
        • 12/32 – Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 17 years)
        • 8/32 – Won last time out
        • 7/32 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 13 of the last 15 were having their debuts)
        • 7/32 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
        • 3/32 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
        • 2/32 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
        • 2/32 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
        • 1/32 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts and Stats

  • Since 1978, 138 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 5 of the last 6 winners wore a tongue tie
  • 21 of the last 29 winners aged between 8-10
  • 19 of the last 24 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 14 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 4 last time out
  • Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
  • 13 of the last 15 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
  • Just one 7 year-old or younger to win since back in 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
  • 14 of the last 26 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 14 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 10 of the last 20 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 21 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 28 renewals (but 4 in the last 8 years)
  • Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 37 years (83 have attempted)
  • 24 of the last 26 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
  • Respect Gigginstown House Stud owned runners – 3 in the last 7

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (20 Year)

20/20 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
18/20 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
18/20 – Officially rated 137 or higher
17/20 – Had won over at least 3m previously
17/20 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/20 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
12/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/20 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
8/20 – Experienced the National fences before
7/20 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/20 – Won their last race
5/20– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/20 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/20 – Won by the McCain yard
2/20 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard

2023 Winner: Corach Rambler (8/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

5.00 – My Pension Expert Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m

20/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
20/20 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
20/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
17/20 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
17/20 – Ran within the last 35 days
15/20 – Placed in the top three in their last race
13/20 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
11/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/20 – Won their last race
9/20 – Favourites that won
5/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/20 – Irish-trained winners
4/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 4 of last 12 runnings)
3/20 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 10 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 23 years and 4-from-5 since 2008
Since 1989 there have been just 5 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019 & 2022
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
9 of the last 14 winners were French bred
11 of the last 15 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 24 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 26 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973

2023 Winner: Jonbon (2/11)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Aidan Coleman

 

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2025 Grand National Trends

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2025 Grand National Betting Trends and Tips - The Randox Health Grand National is simply the biggest and most famous horse race in the world. Run at Aintree racecourse each year in early April the gruelling contest is run over a trip of 4 1/4 miles with the first ever winner being the appropriately-named Lottery.

With 34 runners to go through one popular angle on whittling down the field is to use some key trends - apply these to the 2025 Grand National runners and you'll at least build up a profile of the type of horse it takes to win the Liverpool marathon.

Did you know that since 1978 only three horses have won carrying more than 11-5 in weight, while we've only had one winning 7 year-old to win since 1940........but that was Noble Yeats in 2022.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at past winners and highlights the key betting trends ahead of the 2024 Aintree Grand National - this year run on Saturday 12th April - and sponsored by Randox Health.

Ok, at first glance with now 34 runners (reduced from 40) contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to trying to hunt down the winner – however, despite those daunting factors you can often find the Grand National winner by following a few simple tips and trends.

The 2025 Grand National is on Saturday 12th April at another new time - 4pm.

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Positive Grand National Pointers……………….

  • Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description
  • Note horses wearing a tongue-tie (5 of the last 7)
  • Aged between 8-10, but last 9 have all been aged 9 or younger
  • Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
  • Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
  • Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National (won 6 of the last 8)
  • Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
  • Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well
  • Horses that have won over 3miles in the past is virtual ‘must-have’

Negative Grand National Pointers…………………

  • Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record – you have to go back to 1923!
  • Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
  • Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records
  • Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t run well
  • Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well, although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch again in 2019 and Corach Rambler won at Cheltenaham before winning the National in 2023.

 

Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory - including I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024. But looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point. If you look back over the winners we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 25 of the last 33 winners carried 10-13 or less.

Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the gruelling 4m 1/4f trip?  29 of the last 33 winners had won over 3m+ in the past, but it's worth noting that the 2021 Minella Times - had only won over 2m6f before heading to National glory.

Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9 years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on. Before Noble Yeats won as a 7 year-old in 2022 - you had to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon! So, don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager - 26 of the last 33 winners were aged 9 or older, but it is worth pointing out 5 of the last 9 winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat. Including I Am Maximus in 2024.

Tongue-Tie: An interesting stat that's building up is that five of the last 7 National winners wore a tongue-tie. Backed up again in 2023 with Corach Rambler sporting this form of headgear or equipment. We can expect several of the runners to follow suit, but this emerging trend should also help knock out many. While 3 of the last 6 winners wore headgear of some sort.

Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners. 9 of the last 18 winners came from Irish-based stables, including 6 of the last 8 and another in 2024 with the Willie Mullins-trained I Am Maximus.

Fencing Master: With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to contend with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a huge advantage. Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase - or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at.

Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear. It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting. 8 of the last 33 runnings have been won by the favourite (24%), while 19 of the last 33 (58%) market leaders were placed (top 4 finish)! The last two runnings have now been won by the favourite (or joint) too.

Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings. In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, that punters generally tend to get this race right. 13 of the last 21 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market.

Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 34 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. The majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day. While if you want to drill this trend down a bit further than you’ll notice that a large amount of recent winners of the Grand National actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world. 31 of the last 33 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 25 of the last 33 raced no more than 34 days ago! In 2021, Minella Times, did defy this trend after winning the National off a 62-day break, while the 2023 winner Corach Rambler ran just 32 days prior, when 1st in the Ultima Handicap Chase in 2023 at the Cheltenham Festival. 12 months ago, I Am Maximus was last in action 49 days before winning the race.

Recent Grand National Winners

2024 - I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
2023 - Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
2021 - Minella Times (11/1)
2020 - Cancelled (Covid)
2019 - Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 - Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 - One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 - Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 - Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 - Don't Push It 10/1jfav
2009 - Mon Mome 100/1
2008 - Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 - Silver Birch 33/1
2006 - Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 - Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 - Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 - Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 - Bindaree 20/1
2001 - Red Marauder 33/1
2000 - Papillon 10/1
1999 - Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 - Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 - Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 - Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 - Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 - Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 - VOID RACE
1992 - Party Politics 14/1
1991 - Seagram 12/1
1990 - Mr Frisk 16/1

Aintree Grand National Trends

  • 32/33 – Officially rated 137 or higher
  • 31/33 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
  • 29/33 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
  • 29/33 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
  • 25/33 – Returned a double-figure price
  • 25/33 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
  • 25/33 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
  • 25/33 – Aged 9 or older
  • 23/33 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
  • 22/33 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
  • 21/33 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
  • 21/33 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
  • 19/33 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
  • 19/33 – Placed favourites
  • 18/33 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
  • 16/33 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
  • 13/33 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 13/33 – Trained in Ireland (inc 10 of the last 18 years)
  • 9/33 – Won last time out
  • 8/33 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
  • 7/33 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 14 of the last 16 were having their debuts)
  • 3/33 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
  • 2/33 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • 2/33 - Trained by Willie Mullins
  • 2/33 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
  • 1/33 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 146 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (2024), Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 19 of the last 25 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 5 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue tie
  • 22 of the last 30 winners aged between 8-10
  • Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
  • 14 of the last 16 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
  • Just one 7 year-old or younger to win since 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
  • 15 of the last 27 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 15 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 10 of the last 21 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 22 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 29 renewals (but 5 in the last 9 years)
  • Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 38 years (86 have attempted)
  • 25 of the last 27 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (21 Year)

21/21 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
19/21 – Officially rated 137 or higher
18/21 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
18/21 – Had won over at least 3m previously
18/21 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/21 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/21 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
13/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/21 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/21 – Experienced the National fences before
8/21 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/21 – Won their last race
6/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/21 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (5 of the last 9)
5/21– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/21 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/21 – Won by the McCain yard
2/21 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard
2/21 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard

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Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 12th April 24

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Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 12th April 2024 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends

FRIDAY, 12th April 2024 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.45pm – Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhasset Memorial Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 1 Cl1 3m1f

20/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
20/20 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
17/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
17/20 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
16/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
10/20 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
9/20 – Winning favourites
6/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 6)
3/20 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 9 of the last 20 runnings between them
11 of the last 13 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
19 of the last 26 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (13) years-old (12 of the last 14)
The last 20 winners were either French (8) or Irish (12) bred.
6 of the last 11 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
0 winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
33 of the last 34 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners had won over at least 3m before
37 of the last 41 (90%) winners had won twice or more over fences
18 of the last 21 (86%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
22 of the last 24 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

2023 Winner: Gerri Colombe (4/6 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

2.20pm – The William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV

9/10 – Had won between 2-4 times
8/10 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Aged 8 or younger
8/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Placed favs (top 4)
7/10 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Aged 6
5/10 – Had run at Aintree before
4/10 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/10 – Winning favs (joint)
0/10 – Outright winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 4 runnings

2023 Winner: Fennor Cross (8/1)
Trainer: John C McConnell
Jockey: Ben Harvey

2.55pm – TrustATrader Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y ITV

19/20 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
13/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/20 – Finished first or second last time out
11/20 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
9/20 – Aged 5 years-old
6/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 13)
6/20 – Winning favourites
21 of the last 24 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
17 of the last 26 (65%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
10 of the last 11 winners ran in bumpers before in their careers (8 had won at least once before)
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 24 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 27 runnings
Just four Irish winners since 1978 (3 from 31 this century)
Irish have won just 5 of the last 46 runnings
11 of the last 23 (48%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 24 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 0-from-5 since 2016
Respect JP McManus-owned runners (6 wins), including last 2 (all 6 returned fav)

2023 Winner: Inthepocket (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore

3.30pm – My Pension Expert Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

18/20 – Raced within the last 30 days
18/20 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
17/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
17/20 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Aged 9 or younger
13/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/20 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out (
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 9)
7/20 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
33 of the last 36 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
25 of the last 31 (78%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 28 (46%) winners finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that campaign
19 of the last 28 (67%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
24 of the last 32 (75%) winners won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting in the past
14 of the last 19 (78%) winners won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that campaign
28 of the last 32 (88%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that campaign
Just 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
Respect French breds (the last 6 winners)
11 of the last 25 winners trained in Ireland
Trainer Joseph O’Brien is 2-from-3

2023 Winner: Pic D’Orhy (4/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden

4.05pm – Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

18/20 – Ran within the last 34 days
18/20 – Aged 10 or younger
17/20 - Didn’t win their last race
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/20 – Ran within the last 23 days
12/20 – Carried 10-7 or less
11/20 – Unplaced in last race
5/20 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Irish-trained winners
3/20 – Won their last race
2/20 - Trained by Willie Mullins (2 of last 4)
5 of the last 9 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 10 winners between them
6 of the last 9 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 9 winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 16 (50%) winners ran in last year’s race
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners had run over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 30 (50%) winners had run at least 7 times that season
Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Only 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Only two winners aged 11+ (118 have tried) since 1994

2023 Winner: Bill Baxter (20/1)
Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies

4.40pm – The Cavani Sartorial Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

17/20 – Raced within the last 35 days
15/20 – Aged 6 or younger
11/20 – Priced 7/1 or bigger in the market
10/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Favourites
3/20 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 9)
2/20 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/20 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/20 – Irish-trained
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 12 runnings)
15 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (94%)
23 of the last 27 (85%) won at least twice over hurdles previously
21 of the last 30 (70%) had won 4 times or more over hurdles
15 of the last 29 (52%) won over at least 2m7f before
16 of the last 23 (70%) didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2023 Winner: Apple Away (16/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Stephen Mulqueen

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Aintree Day One Stats and Trends: Thursday 11th April 24

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Here at GeeGeez, we give you all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races at Aintree on the opening day of their 2024 Grand National Festival (Thursday 11th April) – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Once the final runners are out, you can apply these stats to the entries to put history on your side.

Aintree Trends (ITV/Racing TV)
Thursday 11th April 2024

2.20pm – Boodles Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV –

17/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
16/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
14/20 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
13/20 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/20 – Winning favourites
7/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Won by trainer Alan King (4-from-8 since 2007)
4/20 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
3/20 – Irish-trained winners
2/20  - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (2 of last 5)
16/18 – Won at least twice over hurdles
14/18 – Retuned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 - Winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Previous Grade 1 or 2 winners that season
13/18 – Ran at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/18 – Finished in the top 3 in the Triumph Hurdle
12/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins, Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
10/15 – Began their careers in France
Horses rated 152+ are 5 from 8 (since 2007)
Just 3 of the last 22 winners were Irish-trained
French-bred horses have won 13 of the last 24 (54%) runnings – including 6 of the last 8
Just 5/33 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

2023 Winner: Zenta (5/4)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Mark Walsh

2.55pm – William Hill Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

18/20 – Didn’t win last time out
15/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/20 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
12/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/20 – Aged in double-figures
7/20 – Winning favourites (5 of the last 6)
5/20 - Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (6 wins in total)
5/9 – Were the top-rated horse in the field
4/20 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/9 – Won that season’s King George
11 of the last 14 (79%) winners aged 9 or younger
10 of the last 13 winners returned 7/2 or shorter
6 of the last 8 market leaders (favs) have won
All of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Trainer Willie Mullins is 2-from-5 in the race
26/39 (67%) winners ran in that season’s King George
25/39 (64%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
14/26 (54%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
Just 4 of the last 27 winners were Irish-trained
5 of the last 11 winners had headgear
10 of the last 13 winners were favourite or second favourite
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 30 (43%) renewals and 6 of the last 13 (46%)
6 of the last 12 winners had run in this race before
No last-time out winner since 2010

2023 Winner: Shishkin (7/4 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville

3.30pm – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

19/20 – Aged 8 or younger
16/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/20 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
10/20 – Irish-trained winners, plus 20 of the last 46
6/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/20 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (6 of the last 12)
5/20 – Won last time out
24 of the last 29 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
45 of the last 46 winners aged 8 or younger
14 of the last 29 (48%) winners trained in Ireland
32 of the last 46 (70%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
9 of the last 13 winners (69%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
14 of the last 17 winners (including last 11) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 22 (41%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 6 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 4 won
The last 15 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Just 4 winning outright favourites since 2000
Every past British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 34 runnings
Just 2 of the last 20 Champion Hurdle runners-up to race have won

2023 Winner: Constitution Hill (2/15 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville

4.05pm – Randox Foxhunters´ Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV

19/20 – Aged 9 or older (Just 3 of the last 39 winners were younger than 9)
15/20 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Aged in double-figures
14/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
14 of the last 18 (78%) winners were aged 10 or older
Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 9 runnings
5 of the last 9 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
21 of the last 30 (70%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
25 of the last 30 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 3 of the last 39 winners were aged younger than 9
24 of the last 30 (80%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
11 of the last 18 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 13 of the last 21 (65%) renewals

2023 Winner: Famous Clermont (9/2)
Trainer: C R Barber
Jockey: William Biddick

4.40pm – The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

18/20 – Aged 9 or younger
17/20 – Carried 11-1 or less
14/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/20 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Unplaced last time out
10/20 – Aged 7 or younger
10/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Irish-trained winners
15 of the last 21 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
18 of the last 22 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 3 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 15 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 17 of the last 25 (68%) runnings
20 of the last 23 (87%) winners carried 11-2 or less
7 of the last 24 (29%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
8 of the last 9 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
7 of the last 8 winners were Irish-bred
Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 & 2023 and 4 placed horses

2023 Winner: Dancing On My Own (15/2)
Trainer: Henry de Bromhead
Jockey Rachael Blackmore

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