Tag Archive for: Aintree trends

Aintree Day Three Stats and Trends: Saturday 5th April 25

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As we head into the last day of the 2025 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 5th April 2025 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Liverpool Hurdle and The Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent events, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

As always here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Good Luck!

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Aintree Horse Racing Trends

SATURDAY, 5th April 2025 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.20pm – William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV

10/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/11 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
10/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
9/11 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/11 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
8/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/11 – Placed favs (top 4)
7/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Rated between 131-138
7/11 – Had never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
5/11 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Finished in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/11 – Trained and ridden by Dan Skelton
2/11 – Ridden by Harry Skelton
2/11 - Ridden by Charlie Todd
2/11 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 10

2024 Winner: Gweenie May Boy (9/2)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Charlie Todd

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

20/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
18/21 – Raced 39 days or less ago
18/21 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
17/21 – Placed in the top three last time out
16/21 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (11 of last 14)
12/21 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
10/21 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (9 of the last 13 favs have won)
9/21 – Won their last race
4/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/21 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 7)
2/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 2 of last 13 runnings)
Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
21 of the last 27 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
14 of the last 15 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
12 of the last 18 (67%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
16 of the last 25 (57%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
17 of the last 27 (63%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Elliott, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 13 of the last 20 (65%) runnings between them
9 of the last 14 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Gordon Elliott has won the last 3
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 28 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 35 years
Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
Front runners in the race have a bad recent record

2024 Winner: Brighterdaysahead (6/5 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Jack Kennedy

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

18/21 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/21 – Didn’t win last time out
15/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
15/21 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
12/21 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/21 – Unplaced in their last race
13/21 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
5/21 – Won their last race
4/21 – Favourites that won
3/21 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 14)
2/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/21 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Tom Lacey has won 2 of the last 6
Only 4 of the last 25 winners were aged 10+
Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 20 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 47 runnings
10 of the last 14 (71%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 17 winners didn’t win earlier that season
9 of the last 12 winners had won over 3m before
Only 3 of the last 18 winners won last time out

2024 Winner: Cruz Control (9/1)
Trainer: Tom Lacey
Jockey: Stan Sheppard

3.05pm – Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

15/20 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
16/20 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
16/20 – Ran within the last 30 days
14/20 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
14/20 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
13/20 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/20 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9/20 – Won their last race
9/20 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
7/20 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/20 – Irish-trained winners
2/20 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 3)
2/20 – Trained by Alan King
2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Willie Mullins has never won the Liverpool Hurdle
16 of the last 20 (80%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18 of the last 20 (90%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
16 of the last 20 (80%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 20 (70%) were favourite or second favourite
8 of the last 15 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7 of the last 15 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 9 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 6-from-6
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-8
Just 3 of the last 20 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
Just 3 winners rated below 155 in the last 20 runnings
No 5 year-old winners between 2000 and 2024 (only 4 ever)

2024 Winner: Strong Leader (8/1)
Trainer: Olly Murphy
Jockey: Sean Bowen

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

• 32/33 – Officially rated 137 or higher
• 31/33 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
• 29/33 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
• 29/33 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
• 25/33 – Returned a double-figure price
• 25/33 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
• 25/33 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
• 25/33 – Aged 9 or older
• 23/33 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
• 22/33 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
• 21/33 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
• 21/33 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (7 of the last 8)
• 19/33 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
• 19/33 – Placed favourites
• 18/33 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
• 16/33 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
• 13/33 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
• 13/33 – Trained in Ireland (inc 10 of the last 18 years)
• 9/33 – Won last time out
• 8/33 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
• 7/33 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 14 of the last 16 were having their debuts)
• 3/33 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
• 2/33 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
• 2/33 - Trained by Willie Mullins
• 2/33 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
• 1/33 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

• Since 1978, 146 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 19 of the last 25 winners were bred in Ireland
• 5 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue tie
• 22 of the last 30 winners aged between 8-10
• Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
• 14 of the last 16 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
• Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
• 15 of the last 27 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
• No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
• 3 of the last 15 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
• 10 of the last 21 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
• 5 of the last 22 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
• Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 38 years (86 have attempted)
• 25 of the last 27 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
• Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (21 Year)

21/21 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
19/21 – Officially rated 137 or higher
18/21 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
18/21 – Had won over at least 3m previously
18/21 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/21 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/21 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
13/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/21 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/21 – Experienced the National fences before
8/21 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/21 – Won their last race
6/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/21 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (5 of the last 9)
5/21– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/21 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/21 – Won by the McCain yard
2/21 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard
2/21 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard

2024 Winner: I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend

5.00 – Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m 

21/21 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
21/21 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
21/21 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
18/21 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
18/21 – Ran within the last 35 days
16/21 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/21 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
11/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/21 – Favourites that won
9/21 – Won their last race
6/21 – Irish-trained winners
5/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/21 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 4 of last 13 runnings)
3/21 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 11 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 24 years and 4-from-5 since 2008 (when running)
Since 1989 there have been just 6 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2022 & 2024
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
9 of the last 14 winners were French bred
11 of the last 15 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 24 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 26 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973

2024 Winner: Found A Fifty (11/8 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Jack Kennedy

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Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 4th April 25

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Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 4th April 2025 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends

FRIDAY, 4th April 2025 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.45pm – Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f

21/21– Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
21/21 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
18/21 – Aged 7 or younger
18/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
18/21 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
17/21 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
10/21 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
10/21 – Winning favourites
7/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 7)
4/21 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 9 of the last 21 runnings between them
11 of the last 13 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
20 of the last 27 winners were aged 6 (7) or 7 (13) years-old (13 of the last 15)
The last 21 winners were either French (8) or Irish (13) bred.
No British bred winner since 2002
6 of the last 12 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
0 winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
34 of the last 35 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
26 of the last 33 (79%) winners had won over at least 3m before
37 of the last 42 (88%) winners had won twice or more over fences
19 of the last 22 (86%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
23 of the last 25 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

2024 Winner: Inothewayurthinkin (6/4 fav)
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Jockey: Mark Walsh

2.20pm – The William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV

10/11 – Had won between 2-4 times (hurdles)
9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
8/11 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Placed favs (top 4)
8/11 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Unplaced last time out
5/11 – Aged 6
6/11 – Had run at Aintree before
4/11 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 - Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 3)
2/11 – Winning favs (joint or co)
0/11 – Outright winning favourites
Jonjo O’Neill has won the race twice since 2007
The Irish have won 3 of the last 5 runnings

2024 Winner: Kateira (5/1 cfav)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton

2.55pm – TrustATrader Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV

20/21 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
14/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/21 – Finished first or second last time out
12/21 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
10/21 – Aged 5 years-old
7/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 14)
22 of the last 25 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
18 of the last 27 (67%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
26 of the last 33 (79%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
11 of the last 12 winners ran in bumpers before (9 winning at least once)
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 25 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 28 runnings
Just five Irish winners since 1978 (4 from 34 this century)
Irish have won just 6 of the last 47 runnings (but 4 of the last 5)
12 of the last 24 (50%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 24 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 1-from-7 since 2016
Last 3 winners rated between 147-149
Respect JP McManus-owned runners (7 wins), including last 3 (all 7 returned fav)

2024 Winner: Mystical Power (11/10 fav)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Mark Walsh

3.30pm – My Pension Expert Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

18/21 – Raced within the last 30 days
18/21 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
18/21 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Aged 9 or younger
17/21 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
14/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/21 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
11/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 10)
7/21 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
25 of the last 33 (76%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
34 of the last 37 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
26 of the last 32 (81%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 29 (45%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
20 of the last 29 (69%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
25 of the last 33 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
28 of the last 33 (85%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
Respect French breds (the last 7 winners)
11 of the last 26 winners trained in Ireland
Joseph O’Brien runners are 2-from-3

2024 Winner: Jonbon (11/10 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville

4.05pm – Randox Supports Prostate Cancer UK Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

18/21 – Raced within the last 34 days
19/21 – Aged 10 or younger
17/21 - Didn’t win last time out
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/21 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
11/21 – Raced within the last 23 days
11/21 – Unplaced last time out
5/21 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 total)
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Irish-trained winners
2/21 - Trained by Willie Mullins (2 of last 5)
2/21 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
No winning favourite in the last 10
5 of the last 10 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 11 winners between them
6 of the last 10 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 17 (50%) winners raced in last year’s race
11 of the last 18 (65%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 20 (63%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 31 (50%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (121 have tried) since 1994

2024 Winner: Arizona Cardinal (20/1)
Trainer: Stuart Edmunds
Jockey: Ciaran Gethings

4.40pm – Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

18/21 – Had run within the last 35 days
15/21 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
11/21 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
10/21 – Won their last race
5/21 – Favourites that won
3/21 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 10)
2/21 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/21 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
2/21 – Irish-trained winners
Nicky Henderson and Lucinda Russell have won 5 of the last 10
Lucinda Russell has trained 2 of the last 4 winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 12 runnings)
15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (88%)
24 of the last 28 (86%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 31 (67%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
15 of the last 30 (50%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
16 of the last 24 (67%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2024 Winner: Dancing City (4/1)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend

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Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 8th April 22

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As we move into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 8th April 2022 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races for us. The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are three of the highlights as the top-notch action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

Here at GeeGeez, we give you all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2021 Winner: BELFAST BANTER (9/1)
Trainer: Peter Fahey
Jockey: Kevin Sexton

17/18 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
11/18 – Finished first or second last time out
11/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Aged 5 years-old
9/18 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 11)
4/18 – Winning favourites
19 of the last 22 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
16 of the last 24 (67%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
The last 9 winners ran in bumpers
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 22 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 25 runnings
Just three Irish winners since 1978 (2 from 26 this century)
10 of the last 21 (48%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

 

2.55pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2021 Winner: CHANTRY HOUSE (11/8 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

18/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
18/18 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
15/18 – Aged 7 or younger
15/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/18 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
14/18 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/18 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 4)
2/18 – Irish trained winners
4 of the last 5 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson, Colin Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 11 of the last 18 runnings between them
17 of the last 24 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (11) years-old
The last 18 winners were either French (7) or Irish (11) bred.
5 of the last 9 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
31 of the last 32 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 30 winners had won over at least 3m before
35 of the last 39 (90%) winners had won twice or more over fences
16 of the last 19 (84%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
20 of the last 22 (91%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

 

3.30pm – Marsh Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2021 Winner: FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (2/1 fav)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Mark Walsh

18/18 – Raced within the last 30 days
18/18 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
17/18 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
11/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/18 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
9/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Irish-trained winners
7/18 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
23 of the last 30 (77%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
31 of the last 34 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 26 (52%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
17 of the last 26 (65%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
28 of the last 30 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old

 

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2021 Winner: LIVELOVELAUGH (15/2)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Patrick Mullins

17/18 – Raced within the last 34 days
16/18 – Aged 10 or younger
16/18 - Didn’t win last time out
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/18 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/18 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/18 – Unplaced last time out
4/18 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Irish-trained winners
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/18 – Won last time out
2/18 - Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
2/18 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
5 of the last 7 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 8 winners between them
6 of the last 7 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 7 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 14 (57%) winners raced in last year’s race
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 28 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 4 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (114 have tried) since 1994

 

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2021 Winner: AHOY SENOR (66/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

16/18 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
11/18 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
8/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Favourites that won
3/18 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/18 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0-from-8 (last 10 runnings)
13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (93%)
21 of the last 25 (84%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 27 (48%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
14 of the last 21 (67%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

Aintree Day Three Stats and Trends: Saturday 9th April 22

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As we head into the final day of the 2022 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 9th April 2022 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to take in.
The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always popular contest, but – as we all know – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

So, as always here at GEEGEEZ, we’ve got all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Good Luck!

Aintree Horse Racing Trends

2.25pm – Betway Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

 

17/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
15/18 – Raced 39 days or less ago
15/18 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/18 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/18 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
8/18 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (7 of the last 11 favs have won)
8/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 10 runnings)
Ballymore Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
11 of the last 12 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
18 of the last 23 (78%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
14 of the last 22 (65%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Colin Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 17 (59%) runnings between them
7 of the last 11 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 25 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 32 years
9 of the last 11 winners returned 9/2 or shorter

 

3.00pm – Poundland Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

18/18 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
18/18 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
18/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
15/18 – Ran within the last 35 days
13/18 – Placed in the top three in their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
10/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/18 – Won their last race
8/18 – Favourites that won
5/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/18 – Irish-trained winners
3/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 3 of last 10 runnings)
3/18 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 8 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-8 in the last 21 years and 4-from-4 since 2008
Since 1989 there have been just 4 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016 & 2019
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
7 of the last 12 winners were French bred
10 of the last 13 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 22 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 24 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973

3.35pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

15/17 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
15/17 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
14/17 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/17 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/17 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
12/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/17 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
14 of the last 17 (78%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
16 of the last 17 (94%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 17 (76%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 17 (82%) were favourite or second favourite
7 of the last 12 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 12 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 5 from last 6 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 5-from-5
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-7
No winner older than 9 years-old

 

4.15pm – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

 

14/18 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
16/18 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/18 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
11/18 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
10/18 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
10/18 – Unplaced in their last race
4/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Favourites that won
3/18 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 11)
2/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Only 3 of the last 22 winners were aged 10+
Only 4 winners carried more than 11st in the last 17 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 44 runnings
9 of the last 11 (82%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 14 winners didn’t win earlier that season
7 of the last 9 winners had won over 3m before
Only 2 of the last 15 winners won last time out

 

5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

 

29/30 – Officially rated 137 or higher
28/30 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
27/30 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
26/30 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
24/30 – Aged 9 or older
24/30 – Returned a double-figure price
23/30 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
23/30 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
22/30 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
19/30 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
19/30 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
19/30 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
17/30 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
17/30 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
16/30 – Placed favourites
15/30 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/30 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
11/30 – Trained in Ireland (inc 8 of the last 15 years)
7/30 – Ran in a previous Grand National
7/30 – Won last time out
6/30 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
3/30 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/30 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/30 – Ridden by Davy Russell (2 of the last 3)
0/30 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

      • Since 1978, 128 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
      • 17 of the last 22 winners were bred in Ireland
      • Only 3 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
      • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
      • 13 of the last 24 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
      • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
      • 3 of the last 12 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
      • 10 of the last 18 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
      • 5 of the last 19 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
      • Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 26 renewals
      • Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 35 years (77 have attempted)
      • 22 of the last 24 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
      • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (18 Year)

16/18 – Had won over at least 3m previously
15/18 – Ran less than 50 days ago
16/18 – Officially rated 137 or higher
14/18 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
11/18 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/18 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/18 – Experienced the National fences before
8/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/18 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/18 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/18 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/18 – Won by the McCain yard

 

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Becher Chase Trends

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The Becher Chase is run at Aintree racecourse over the historic Grand National-style fences and, therefore, provides punters with some early-season clues ahead of the world’s most famous steeplechase.

Run over the 3m2f the race has been won six times by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, while Silver Birch and Amberleigh House are recent winners of the Becher Chase then went on later in their careers to land the Grand National too.

The Robert Walford-trained Walk In The Mill has won the last two runnings and could be back for more in 2020.

We look back at recent winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2020 renewal, this year run on Saturday 5th December.

 

Recent Becher Chase Winners

2019 – WALK IN THE MILL (8/1)
2018 – WALK IN THE MILL (10/1)
2017 – BLAKLION (7/4 fav)
2016 – VIEUX LION ROUGE (8/1 fav)
2015 – HIGHLAND LODGE (20/1)
2014 – OSCAR TIME (25/1)
2013 – CHANCE DU ROY (14/1)
2012 – HELLO BUD (14/1)
2011 – WEST END ROCKER (10/1)
2010 – HELLO BUD (15/2 fav)
2009 – VIC VENTURI (7/1)
2008 – BLACK APALACHI (15/2)
2007 – MR POINTMENT (15/2)
2006 – EUROTREK (25/1)
2005 – GARVIVONNIAN (33/1)
2004 – SILVER BIRCH (4/1 fav)
2003 – CLAN ROYAL (11/2)
2002 – ARDENT SCOUT (14/1)

Becher Chase Betting Trends

15/18 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
14/18 – Carried 10-12 or less
14/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/18 – Had no more than 1 start that season
13/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/18 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
12/18 – Aged 9 or older
12/18 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/18 – Had raced at Aintree before
11/18 – Irish-bred winners
10/18 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
7/18 – Placed favourites
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Irish-trained winners
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/18 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/18 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 12/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Walk In The Mill won the race in 2018 and 2019
Blaklion won the race in 2017
Vieux Lion Rouge won the race in 2016

 

 

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