Tag Archive for: Top Novices´ Hurdle trends

Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 12th April 24

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 12th April 2024 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends

FRIDAY, 12th April 2024 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.45pm – Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhasset Memorial Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 1 Cl1 3m1f

20/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
20/20 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
17/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
17/20 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
16/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
10/20 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
9/20 – Winning favourites
6/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 6)
3/20 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 9 of the last 20 runnings between them
11 of the last 13 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
19 of the last 26 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (13) years-old (12 of the last 14)
The last 20 winners were either French (8) or Irish (12) bred.
6 of the last 11 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
0 winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
33 of the last 34 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners had won over at least 3m before
37 of the last 41 (90%) winners had won twice or more over fences
18 of the last 21 (86%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
22 of the last 24 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

2023 Winner: Gerri Colombe (4/6 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

2.20pm – The William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV

9/10 – Had won between 2-4 times
8/10 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Aged 8 or younger
8/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Placed favs (top 4)
7/10 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Aged 6
5/10 – Had run at Aintree before
4/10 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/10 – Winning favs (joint)
0/10 – Outright winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 4 runnings

2023 Winner: Fennor Cross (8/1)
Trainer: John C McConnell
Jockey: Ben Harvey

2.55pm – TrustATrader Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y ITV

19/20 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
13/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/20 – Finished first or second last time out
11/20 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
9/20 – Aged 5 years-old
6/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 13)
6/20 – Winning favourites
21 of the last 24 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
17 of the last 26 (65%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
10 of the last 11 winners ran in bumpers before in their careers (8 had won at least once before)
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 24 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 27 runnings
Just four Irish winners since 1978 (3 from 31 this century)
Irish have won just 5 of the last 46 runnings
11 of the last 23 (48%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 24 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 0-from-5 since 2016
Respect JP McManus-owned runners (6 wins), including last 2 (all 6 returned fav)

2023 Winner: Inthepocket (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore

3.30pm – My Pension Expert Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

18/20 – Raced within the last 30 days
18/20 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
17/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
17/20 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Aged 9 or younger
13/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/20 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out (
10/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 9)
7/20 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
33 of the last 36 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
25 of the last 31 (78%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 28 (46%) winners finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that campaign
19 of the last 28 (67%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
24 of the last 32 (75%) winners won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting in the past
14 of the last 19 (78%) winners won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that campaign
28 of the last 32 (88%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that campaign
Just 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
Respect French breds (the last 6 winners)
11 of the last 25 winners trained in Ireland
Trainer Joseph O’Brien is 2-from-3

2023 Winner: Pic D’Orhy (4/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden

4.05pm – Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

18/20 – Ran within the last 34 days
18/20 – Aged 10 or younger
17/20 - Didn’t win their last race
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/20 – Ran within the last 23 days
12/20 – Carried 10-7 or less
11/20 – Unplaced in last race
5/20 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/20 – Irish-trained winners
3/20 – Won their last race
2/20 - Trained by Willie Mullins (2 of last 4)
5 of the last 9 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 10 winners between them
6 of the last 9 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 9 winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 16 (50%) winners ran in last year’s race
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners had run over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 30 (50%) winners had run at least 7 times that season
Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Only 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Only two winners aged 11+ (118 have tried) since 1994

2023 Winner: Bill Baxter (20/1)
Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies

4.40pm – The Cavani Sartorial Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

17/20 – Raced within the last 35 days
15/20 – Aged 6 or younger
11/20 – Priced 7/1 or bigger in the market
10/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Favourites
3/20 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 9)
2/20 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/20 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/20 – Irish-trained
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 12 runnings)
15 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (94%)
23 of the last 27 (85%) won at least twice over hurdles previously
21 of the last 30 (70%) had won 4 times or more over hurdles
15 of the last 29 (52%) won over at least 2m7f before
16 of the last 23 (70%) didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2023 Winner: Apple Away (16/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Stephen Mulqueen

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