Tag Archive for: aintree horse racing trends 2025

Aintree Day Two Stats and Trends: Friday 10th April 26

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Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 10th April 2026 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends

FRIDAY, 10th April 2026 (ITV/Racing TV)

1:45 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV

11/12 – Had won between 2-4 times (hurdles)
10/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
9/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Placed favs (top 4)
8/12 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
7/12 – Had run at Aintree before
6/12 – Aged 6
4/12 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Winning favs (joint or co)
0/12 – Outright winning favourites
The Irish have won 3 of the last 6 runnings

  • 2025 Winner: Wellington Arch (14)
  • Trainer: Jonjo & AJ O’Neill
  • Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr

2:20 – Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f

22/22– Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
22/22 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
19/22 – Aged 7 or younger
19/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
19/22 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
18/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
10/22 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
11/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 8)
4/22 – Irish trained winners
5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 10 of the last 22 runnings between them
12 of the last 14 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
21 of the last 28 winners were aged 6 (7) or 7 (14) years-old (14 of the last 16)
The last 22 winners were either French (9) or Irish (13) bred.
No British bred winner since 2002
6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
0 winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
35 of the last 36 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 3m before
38 of the last 43 (88%) winners had won twice or more over fences
19 of the last 22 (88%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
24 of the last 26 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989
Willie Mullins has never won this race

  • 2025 Winner: Caldwell Potter (11/4jfav)
  • Trainer: Paul Nicholls
  • Jockey: Harry Cobden

2:55pm – Thatprizeguy Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV

21/22 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
15/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/22 – Finished first or second last time out
13/22 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
11/22 – Aged 5 years-old
7/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 15)
23 of the last 26 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
18 of the last 28 (64%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
27 of the last 34 (79%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
11 of the last 13 winners ran in bumpers before (9 winning at least once)
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 26 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 29 runnings
Just six Irish winners since 1978 (5 from 37 this century) – but have won the last 3
Irish have won just 7 of the last 48 runnings (but 5 of the last 6)
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 25 runnings)
Willie Mullins is currently 2-from-8 since 2016
3 of the last 4 winners rated between 147-149
3 of the last 4 favourites have won
Respect JP McManus-owned runners (7 wins), including 3 of the last 4 (all 7 returned fav)

  • 2025 Winner: Salvator Mundi (7/2)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

3:30pm – JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/22 – Raced within the last 30 days
19/22 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
19/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
18/22 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/22 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
12/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)
7/22 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
5/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 total and winning-most trainer)
4/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
35 of the last 38 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
27 of the last 33 (82%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
14 of the last 30 (47%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
21 of the last 30 (70%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
26 of the last 34 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
15 of the last 21 (71%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
29 of the last 34 (85%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
Respect French breds (the last 8 winners)
11 of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
Joseph O’Brien runners are 2-from-3
Jonbon has won the last 2 runnings
All winners since 2006 aged 9 or younger

  • 2025 Winner: Jonbon (4/6 fav)
  • Trainer: Nicky Henderson
  • Jockey: Nico de Boinville

4:05pm – Randox Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

20/22 – Aged 10 or younger
19/22 – Raced within the last 34 days
18/22 - Didn’t win last time out
15/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/22 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
12/22 – Unplaced last time out
11/22 – Raced within the last 23 days
5/22 – Trained by the Bowen yard
4/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/22 – Won last time out
4/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22 - Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 6)
2/22 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
6 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 8 of the last 12 winners between them
7 of the last 11 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 11 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 18 (44%) winners raced in last year’s race
12 of the last 19 (63%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 32 (48%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 6 Irish-trained winners since 1979, but 3 of the last 6
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (124 have tried) since 1994

  • 2025 Winner: Gentleman De Mee (14/1)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Mark Walsh

4:40pm – Oddschecker Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

18/22 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/22 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
12/22 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
10/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Favourites that won
3/22 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 11)
2/22 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/22 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
2/22 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 13 runnings)
16 of the last 18 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (89%)
25 of the last 29 (86%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 32 (66%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
15 of the last 31 (48%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
17 of the last 25 (68%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

  • 2025 Winner: Julius Des Pictons (14/1)
  • Trainer: Jamie Snowden
  • Jockey: Gavin Sheehan

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Aintree Day One Stats and Trends: Thursday 9th April 26

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Here at GeeGeez, we give you all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races at Aintree on the opening day of their 2026 Grand National Festival (Thursday 9th April) – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Once the final runners are out, you can apply these stats to the entries to put history on your side.

Aintree Trends (ITV/Racing TV) - Thursday 9th April 2026

1:45pm – Boodles Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

18/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
17/22 – Placed in the top three last time out
15/22 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
10/22 – Winning favourites
8/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Won by trainer Alan King (4-from-7 since 2007)
4/22 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
4/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22 - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 of last 7)
17/20 – Won at least twice over hurdles
16/20 – Retuned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Previous Grade 1 or 2 winners that season
14/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins, Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
13/20 - Winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
13/20 – Ran at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/20 – Finished in the top 3 in the Triumph Hurdle
12/17 – Began their careers in France
15 of the last 20 had won a graded race that season
Horses rated 152+ are 5 from 8 (since 2007)
Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 9 runnings
Just 4 of the last 24 winners were Irish-trained
French-bred horses have won 15 of the last 26 (58%) runnings – including 8 of the last 10
Just 6/35 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles before

  • 2025 Winner: Murcia (11/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

2.20pm – William Hill Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m4f ITV

16/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – From the top 3 in the market
13/15 – Rated 150+
12/16 – Ran 8 or less times over hurdles
12/14 – Ran between 4-5 times over fences
11/16 – Ran in the Arkle (6) or Golden Miller (5) at Cheltenham
9/11 – Won exactly once over fences
8/12 – Aged 6 years-old
4/9 – Irish winners (last 3)
1/10 – Won by a 5 year-old
0/7 – Mare winners
0/11 – Winning favourite (1 of the last 16)
Paul Nicholls runners are 0-17
Willie Mullins has won the last 2 runnings

  • 2025 Winner: Impaire Et Passe (9/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

2:55pm – Racing Welfare Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

20/22 – Didn’t win last time out
16/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
14/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
8/22 – Winning favourites (7 of the last 10)
7/22 – Aged in double-figures
5/22 - Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (6 wins in total)
5/11 – Were the top-rated horse in the field
4/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/11 – Won that season’s King George VI Chase
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners aged 9 or younger
12 of the last 15 winners returned 7/2 or shorter
9 of the last 12 winners top two on BHA ratings
7 of the last 10 market leaders (favs) have won
All of the last 14 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6
26/41 (63%) winners ran in that season’s King George
26/41 (63%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
14/28 (50%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
Just 6 of the last 29 winners were Irish-trained (only 3 in the last 11)
6 of the last 13 winners had headgear
12 of the last 15 winners were favourite or second favourite
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 14 of the last 32 (44%) renewals and 7 of the last 15 (47%)
6 of the last 14 winners had run in this race before
No last-time out winner since 2010
Harry Coden (2) and Nico de Boinville (2) have won 4 of the last 7

  • 2025 Winner: Gaelic Warrior (11/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Patrick Mullins

3:30pm – Randox Foxhunters´ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV

20/22 – Aged 9 or older (Just 3 of the last 40 winners were younger than 9)
16/22 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/22 – Aged in double-figures
9/22 – Won last time out
9/22 – Ran in the Cheltenham St James’s Place Hunters’ Chase last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners were aged 10 or older
Irish-trained runners have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
5 of the last 11 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
22 of the last 32 (69%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
25 of the last 31 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 4 of the last 41 winners were aged younger than 9
25 of the last 32 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
12 of the last 20 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 14 of the last 23 (61%) renewals
Owner JP McManus has won 3 of the last 10
2 of the last 8 ridden by James King

  • 2025 Winner: Gracchus De Balme (22/1)
  • Trainer: J J O’Shea
  • Jockey: Mr Huw Edwards

4:05pm – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

21/22 – Aged 8 or younger
18/22 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
12/22 – Irish-trained winners, plus 22 of the last 48
7/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (6 of the last 14)
6/22 – Won last time out
16 of the last 17 winners from the top 3 in the betting
27 of the last 31 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
47 of the last 48 winners aged 8 or younger
16 of the last 31 (52%) winners trained in Ireland
32 of the last 48 (67%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
9 of the last 15 winners (60%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
Just 1 of the last 48 winners aged 10+
29 of the last 31 winners aged 8 or younger
16 of the last 19 winners (including last 13) had won a Grade 1 before
9 of the last 24 (38%) winners had won at this meeting before
Only 6 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 4 won
The last 17 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Just 4 winning outright favourites since 2000
Every past British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 36 runnings
Just 2 of the last 20 Champion Hurdle runners-up to race have won
The last 3 winners aged 6
Willie Mullins has won the last 2 (3 of the last 9)
Gordon Elliott has never won this race

  • 2025 Winner: Lossiemouth (5/4)
  • Trainer: Willie Mullins
  • Jockey: Paul Townend

4:40pm – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

20/22 – Aged 9 or younger
19/22 – Carried 11-1 or less
16/22 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Unplaced last time out
12/22 – Aged 7 or younger
10/22 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/22 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Irish-trained winners
17 of the last 23 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
20 of the last 24 winners were rated 139 or lower
Only 3 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 17 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 19 of the last 27 (70%) runnings
22 of the last 25 (88%) winners carried 11-2 or less
7 of the last 26 (27%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
10 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
7 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred
Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 & 2023 and 4 placed horses
No winning favourite in the last 11 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners carried 10-10 or less
Brian Hughes has won 2 of the last 9
Sans Bruit (Paul Nicholls) has won the last 2 runnings

  • 2025 Winner: Sans Bruit (5/1)
  • Trainer: Paul Nicholls
  • Jockey Harry Cobden

 

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