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Tix Picks, Tuesday 15/10/24

Tix Picks

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Leicester, Market Rasen, Newcastle & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Newcastle, but there's the uncertainty of heavy ground at Leicester, so we'll head there for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 2.28, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Questionable had finished 232 in her three runs before a comfortable win at Sandown last time out, so she certainly wasn't winning out of turn and despite a hike in weights, she's clearly the form horse here. Phone Tag didn't seem to be going anywhere under Hugo Palmer, but ran a very fine second of six on heavy ground at Chester on his yard debut for Kevin Frost a month ago behind a horse who loves soft/heavy ground and he takes a drop in class today.

Elsewhere Orbital is 1225 in her last four starts and drops in trip after failing to see 1m3f out at Kempton recently, whilst 8-race maiden Another Beautiful cams as close as she has to winning so far, when only beaten by a length as third of eleven over this trip at Beverley three weeks ago.

From a stats perspective, Questionable's yard are in good nick and have a decent record here at Leicester despite not sending many runners here; they also do well at keeping LTO winners running well...

Low draws are often favourable here and this along with Instant Expert brings Croeso Cymraeg into the equation too...

...and it might be worth chancing the veteran (1) Croeso Cymraeg under these conditions as a back-up to (2) Questionable leaving me to pick from Phone Tag, Orbital and Another Beautiful and I think the manner of that run last time out from (3) Phone Tag just tips the balance his way.

Leg 2 @ 2.58, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 1m...

A fairly modest affair here with only three horses ever having made the frame. Keep Singing probably shades it on form having finished 3272 in her last four, whilst Freak Encounter has been third in each of his last two starts with Keep Singing's stablemate Good Call third two starts ago and fourth last time out when these three met at Southwell sixteen days ago...

Keep Singing is raised 2lbs for that run, but is probably still the one to best here and Freak Encounter should still hold Good Call on the basis on that last run and although you could make a case for the likes of Capricorn King who drops in trip here, I think I'll stick with the closely matched trio who have shown some recent form ie (3) Keep Singing, (7) Freak Encounter & (8) Good Call

Leg 3 @ 3.28, a 5-runner, Class 4, 2yo novice stakes over 6f...

Five run here, but three are on debut and could be anything/nothing, of course. To be fair to the pair with racecourse experience, they've done OK so far without ripping trees up. (3) Maids Head has been third on both starts, beaten by six lengths each time whilst (4) My Mate Beattie improved upon her debut effort by coming home strongly to finish as a runner-up at Newcastle three weeks ago and I think I'll just bank on one or both of these getting home in the first two!

Leg 4 @ 3.58, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 7f...

A Major Payne was second of eleven at Windsor over 1m½f on soft ground last time out, whilst Swift Storm has been third of twelve over 7f in both career starts, the latest being on soft ground. Sadly, neither of them have seen a racecourse for over five months and might well need the run, although Swift Storm did have 173 days between his first two outings!

The above layoffs might well open the door for LTO winner Arolla to double up; she was pretty comfortable at Ffos Las on debut in July getting home by more than three lengths despite starting a little slowly. Tex, Doctor Awtaad and Darkest Intention all showed very little on debut and would need to improve dramatically to beat the above trio despite two of them have been off track, whilst the market isn't keen on debutant Stone Forest at all.

A bit of a cop out here, but it's (1) Arolla, (2) A Major Payne & (5) Swift Storm for me from this one.

Leg 5 @ 4.30, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3-4yo seller over 7f...

Trainer Jennie Candlish won this race last year and her runner here Alzahir looks the one to beat today. he's rated some 12 to 27lbs better than all of his rivals but only carries 7lbs more than the bottom-weight Gaiety Musical. Alzahir's last eleven races have been 9 x Class 2 and 2 x Class 3 and he really should be too good for the field today.

Very few of these come here in any sort of form, highlighted by the fact that the best 'recent' runs are Rajwaan's 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 2 lengths on heavy at Haydock followed by a win at Southwell. The fly in the ointment here being that the Southwell run was two weeks short of two years ago!

Classy Boy's yard is in good nick...

...which is a positive and he scores well on Instant Expert, as does Blufferonthebus...

Lower drawn runners fare well here, so that's another tick for both Alzahir and Blufferonthebus, but it's Liberty Mountain who gets the rail, whilst the recent pace scores look like this...

...so I'm with (1) Classy Boy, (2) Blufferonthebus & (5) Alzahir. I'll keep an eye out for Rajwaan, who might prove to be better than his 50/1 ticket if he's not too rusty!

Leg 6 @ 5.03, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Former course and distance winner Spirit Genie won on heavy ground at Haydock last time out for a third win in six starts and on the basis of that run should be the one to beat today. Executive Decision was badly outpaced over 6f and has been getting close without winning over that trip recently so should appreciate the extra furlong here as she seems to do all her best work late on (not ideal at Leicester, sadly).

Pearle D'Or hasn't raced for four months, but when last seen ran pretty well on quicker ground than this. That said, he was a winner over this trip/class at Newbury when last faced with heavy ground and is only rated 3lbs higher here.

It Just Takes Time comes here in good heart after his last three runs have seen him finish as runner-up over 6f at Ripon beaten by just half a length flollowed by a gutsy two-length defeat as 4th of 18 at York last month, but he stepped up in trip last time out and made all to win by a length and a quarter at Beverley three weeks ago.

These four would be my initial ones to watch based on recent handicap form, but I'm also drawn to handicap debutant Mahato, who remains unexposed after just three runs. He won a 15-runner, Class 5 Novice event over on debut at Windsor a year ago, getting home by more than two lengths on soft ground, before an A/W debut at Newcastle four weeks alter saw him a respectable fourth of twelve up in class. His next/last run was a month ago (307 days after his second run!), where despite the layoff and not getting near he winner, he was second home of seven on standard to slow at Kempton in a strung out field and could be dangerously weighted here and his jockey Cieran Fallon has had a good year on the Haggas team's horses...

All five runners I mentioned above score well on Instant Expert, as does class dropper Burdett...



It Takes Time and Executive Decision seem to have the best of the draw here and with (7) It Just Takes Time having a pace profile like this...

...he has to be on my Tix ticket builder. (1) Spirit Genie is the form horse and scores best on IE, so he's in too along with (2) Executive Decision who just edges out Pearle D'Or who might need a run and Mahato who lacks experience.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Croeso Cymraeg, (2) Questionable & (3) Phone Tag

Leg 2: (3) Keep Singing, (7) Freak Encounter & (8) Good Call

Leg 3: (3) Maids Head & (4) My Mate Beattie

Leg 4: (1) Arolla, (2) A Major Payne & (5) Swift Storm

Leg 5: (1) Classy Boy, (2) Blufferonthebus & (5) Alzahir.

Leg 6: (1) Spirit Genie, (2) Executive Decision & (7) It Just Takes Time

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris

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