Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24

Tuesday's racing comes from Lingfield, Punchestown, Uttoxeter & Warwick.
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Lingfield...

I'm not over keen on the Lingfield A/W card, so we'll stay on the jumps, from which the Uttoxeter card looks the better quality. So we'll take in six races from there on good to soft ground, starting off with...

Race 1 @ 12.30...Andy Amo has made a reasonable start to hurdling life, finishing 2nd of 10 and 4th of 12, both at Ffos Las and the way he stayed over 2m6f on debut suggests that the extra distance here might suit him, as might slightly quicker ground than LTO. Grand Geste didn't rip up any trees in two bumpers and had a couple of indifferent efforts over hurdles before the penny started to drop and he has been 2nd of 14, beaten by half a length over 2m4f and a staying on 3rd of 10 over 3m since. That was four weeks ago at Haydock and a similar run makes him dangerous here.

Pike Road has only tackled hurdles once, but stayed on to finish 2nd of 12 over 3m on that debut run and could well improve for having had the run. A similar effort in a poor looking race could put him in the frame again, but the one to beat here is possibly/probably Star Of Diamonds who won a 3m Irish PTP at Quakerstown nine months ago and didn't run again until his debut under Rules at Haydock four weeks ago, where he ended up 4th of 10 over 3m½f on soft ground, losing two places late on (finishing a head behind Grand Geste) and he'd be entitled to come on for the run.

Of these four, I like Andy Amo least, so I'll go with (3) Grand Geste, (4) Pike Road & (6) Star Of Diamonds in the opener.

Race 2 @ 1.00...Benassi has been a bit of a mixed bag so far in nine starts over hurdles, making the frame in six of them, including two wins, but also failing to complete twice and a 40 length defeat. On the evidence of his last run, though, when second of nine at Leicester, it's hard to ignore his claims. I just hope he's on a good day. El Granjero hasn't quite hit the levels of last season where he was 22211 over hurdles and he doesn't seem to have seen 2m6f/2m7f out in both starts this term. He's down in the weights to just 4lbs higher than his last, wears cheekpieces for the first time and the drop in trip should also help a horse with clear ability at this level.

Fresh Speculation got off the mark at the seventh attempt over hurdles at Ffos Las last month over this trip, but he had made the frame in four of his previous five starts so he's progressing nicely. This is tougher up in class and weight, but he's going the right direction. Haarar had a spell where he finished 2211 over hurdles earlier this year and shrpened up for the winter by wining over 1m6f at Redcar on the flat in early November and followed that up with a runner-up finish at Haydock four weeks ago despite being badly hampered by a loose horse.

On any given day, I'd be more than happy to put any of these forward as a potential placer, but I only want to take three and El Granjero will miss out based on recent form, even though the potential is there, leaving me with (2) Benassi, (6) Fresh Speculation & (7) Haarar.

Race 3 @ 1.30...Ithaka was a winner at Market Rasen two starts ago, having made the frame in his two previous starts. 3m1½f at Catterick off a higher mark probably over stretched him last time, so the drop back to 3m could help him back into the frame at what might be a nice price. Just Chasing May won here over 2m4f back in mid-June prior to a break of over four months. Since returning in late October, he has made the frame in all three starts and was third of eight over 2m7f on soft ground last time out and should go well again off the same mark.

Twp Stori is 321251 over hurdles in 2024 with the worst result being a reasonable 5th of 14 here at Uttoxeter over an inadequately short 2m after a break of nearly six months, which he used as a stepping stone to a win over 2m7f on soft ground at Lingfield last time out and a 5lb rise might stop stop him being involved again. All Under Control has taken a while to get going over hurdles, failing to even make the frame in any of her first six starts with only one (10 length) defeat of less than 37 lengths! She then somehow put all that behind her as she battled gamely to win by half a length at Fontwell three weeks ago. This tougher and she's up in weight and trip.

I'm not sure that All Under Control can go well twice in a row based on her previous runs, so I'm going with (5) Ithaka (who might be a nice E/W bet with bookies paying four places), (6) Just Chasing May & (9) Twp Stori here.

Race 4 @ 2.00...Eaton Anne finished 322 in his first three efforts over hurdles but was a very disappointing last of four beaten by 25 lengths at Plumpton on his last start when sent off as the Evens favourite on his handicap debut. It's too soon to write him off based on his three previous runs and he has had a wind op since that last run. Port Or Starboard has made the frame in 12 of 22 career starts, which is what you want from a placepot pick and his form in 2023 read 621333233 before he took a year off. His first run of 2024 was three weeks ago here at Uttoxeter when not disgraced in a 9 length defeat. He's entitled to come on for the run and is now rated at 3lbs lower than his last win and 5lbs lower than this time last year.

Dickens made his own seasonal reappearance after an even longer break of 530 days to finish a very creditable 5th of 14 at Chepstow three months ago travelling strongly for much of the contest he was only eventually beaten by just over five lengths and he too should benefit for the outing. Oneforthefairgreen was second of eight at Leicester six weeks ago, beaten by just over two lengths off the back of a five month break, but didn't seem suited by the step up to 2m2½f at Exeter last time out and now reverts back to 2m, whilst wearing a visor for the first time.

I don't think there's much between the four I've shortlisted, but I need to omit one and the unlucky horse is going to be Dickens, leaving me with (2) Eaton Anne, (4) Port or Starboard & (9) Oneforthefairgreen.

Race 5 @ 2.30...Grove Road is proving to be a better hurdler than we was over fences, finishing 114 in his last three, although that last effort wasn't great whe he faded from contention in the final quarter mile on his way to a 33 length defeat as 4th of 10. That said, he's now 5lbs lower, 2½f back in trip and was going well prior to LTO, so he might not be out of this completely, if he can transfer some of that recent form back to the bigger obstacles. Jessie Lightfoot has had a good year over fences so far, finishing in the frame in seven (two wins) of her ten starts. I'm happy to overlok her latest effort when racing from out of the handicap at Class 3 and the drop back to Class 5 should show her in a better light.

Ali Star Bert gets good to soft or softer ground, gets 2m7f to 3m3f readily and has three wins and four runner-up finishes from his last eleven starts. He's a former course and distance winner, who runs off the same mark as his last win and had been the runner-up in two of his last three. The only potential fly in the ointment is that he has failed to complete the race in three of those four unplaced runs in his last eleven starts, which is why he might be a double-digit price at the off. Croagh Patrick has plenty of experience under his belt and has made the frame in 16 of 34 over fences and comes here off the back of a runner-up finish and a win at Carlisle already this month, both at 3m2f and both on soft ground. He's up 8lbs for that recent win, but the drop back in trip and the slightly easier ground should both help him remain in contention.

My main concern from the four-runner shortlist is that Grove Road hasn't got a great record over fences, so I'll set him aside and take (5) Jessie Lightfoot, (6) Ali Star Bert & (10) Croagh Patrick.

Race 6 @ 3.05...I'm Ravenous finished 231 in his last three over hurdles prior to making all on both his handicap and chase debut where he hung on well to win by half a length. He followed that up by finishing second at Doncaster next/last time out and should be in the mix once more. Knockanore comes here off the back of two good runs where he was second of ten over 2m5f at Southwell before winning here by sixteen lengths over course and distance eleven days ago and although considerably up in weight does look the one to beat today.

Accidental Legend is interesting on chase debut, having made the frame in 8 of 17 over hurdles, winning five times. He looked like he needed the run three weeks ago when 6th of 8 here over 2m7½f, but his prior form had read 12221 and if taking to fences could go well here, although an opening mark of 113 is 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win and leaves little room for error. Lime Drop, on the other hand has nine chases under her belt, mainly in small fields and running to a consistent level finishing 223225213. She won here over 2m two starts ago, but now steps back up to 2m4f.

In card order, I really want (1) I'm Ravenous & (3) Knockanore on my tickets, but it's then a choice between the other pair and I think I might just marginally prefer the consistency of Lime Drop over the inexperience of Accidental Legend, but I think I'll leave both out.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Grand Geste, (4) Pike Road & (6) Star Of Diamonds



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Leg 2: (2) Benassi, (6) Fresh Speculation & (7) Haarar

Leg 3: (5) Ithaka, (6) Just Chasing May & (9) Twp Stori

Leg 4: (2) Eaton Anne, (4) Port or Starboard & (9) Oneforthefairgreen

Leg 5: (5) Jessie Lightfoot, (6) Ali Star Bert & (10) Croagh Patrick

Leg 6: (1) I'm Ravenous & (3) Knockanore

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

And that's Tix Picks done for 2024, I'll be back with you all on Thursday with the first column of 2025.

Wishing you all a very Happy New Year!

Chris

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