Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25

Friday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh & Southwell.
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

Again we'll follow the money down to Southwell for six races, starting with...

Race 1 @ 4.30...Sisterandbrother has already won on the Flat and over hurdles, but has yet to get off the mark on the A/W after seven attempts, although his last two visits to Southwell have seen him finish third on both occasions, beaten by around two lengths over similar trips to today. Young Endless has made the frame in 7 of 12 on the A/W, winning three times, Those three wins were all here at Southwell where he is 31211 and he's 2 from 2 over 1m6f here but he has struggled over this shorter trip in the past and hasn't been seen for seven months.

Paradoxical is 121 in his last three starts including a Tapeta win at Wolverhampton and a distance win at Lingfield last time out when sent off as the 11/10 fav on New Year's Eve. Up 5lbs for that win, but he was pretty comfortable there if truth be told. Khangai won over course and distance two months ago and has finished 3312 in four races since, all on Tapeta including a win over this trip at Wolverhampton before a 1.25 length defeat here over 1m6f five days ago. He now drops back in trip, but runs off the same mark and should be involved.

(1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai are my picks here, as Young Endless could well need the run.

Race 2 @ 5.00...Palmar Bay won three of ten on the Flat at Classes 2/3, including finishing third on his last run of the season at Haydock in mid-October. He then went really well on his A/W debut when second of seven just half a length down at Lingfield and now drops in class for a first run on Tapeta. Lattaash comes here off the back of finishing 3rd of 12 in a Class 4 handicap at Newcastle and then winning well in a Novice race at Wolverhampton, both off today's mark of 83. he has made the frame in 5 of 6 starts to date, all on the A/W and I can see that becoming six from seven.

Billy Mill has finished in the first four home in each of his last seven efforts on the A/W over the last year (3113343) and had two good runs at Ascot in July. Wasn't at his best at Goodwood and Sandown in subsequent efforts, but now down in class and away from the grass, could show himself in a better light if he's not rusty following a 16-week break. Perennial is a lightly raced 4yr old with potential and makes just a fifth start today. He finished 153 in three runs on the Flat for Ed Walker in the summer before a 4-month break and a change of yard was followed by am A/W debut three weeks ago. He ran better than 5th of 7 would suggest, as he took a while to get going and possibly found Chelmsford's 6f a little too quick, as many have in the past. he's had the benefit of a run and steps up in trip on a slightly slower surface and could well improve here.

(1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & a chance taken on (8) Perennial taken here.

Race 3 @ 5.30...Coul Angel was slowly away on his debut here over 5f a fortnight ago, but was flying once he got going and managed 4th of 10, beaten by less than a length and a half and missing a place by just a head. He should come on for the run and the extra furlong could be handy for him. Macedonian was a good second of fifteen on debut at Newmarket in August and followed that up with a 4th of 12 at Kempton on A/W debut a month later. Both runs came over today's trip and this one has been gelded during his four-week break.

Rebel's Gamble is an interesting debutant representing the trainer and jockey who won this race last year. He was deemed worthy of a 135,000 Gns price tag as a yearling and his brother Nahaar won 6 of 14 at 6/7f, whilst his half-brother Gleneagle Bay finished 15222 in his five races last year, going down narrowly in his last two valuable races. Stardancer was a modest 6th of 11 on debut at Newmarket in early November, but made an good A/W debut a fortnight ago, when 2nd of 9 over today's course and distance, beaten only by an 8/13 fav. A similar run here puts him right in the mix and he's every right to improve for his recent experience.

I'll take (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer here.

Race 4 @ 6.00...Brightandbeautiful has finished third and fourth in her two A/W starts to date, both over today's 7f trip, including a third over course and distance in mid-November. She probably wants further than this, but she's running well and this looks a poor race. Whizz By is the only runner in the field with a win to their name and she comes here on a hat-trick after a pair of C&D handicap wins here in October/November. She went up 7lbs for her first win and is up another 5lbs, but I think she still has the potential to improve further and should be the one to beat here.

Empowered Queen has gone pretty well in her three handicap starts to date without ripping too many trees up, finishing 454 in 11/12-runner contests over 6/7f on Tapeta. She was beaten by little more than half a length here at Southwell over 6f last time out, staying on, so the move back to 7f could help. Bantz comes from a yard in decent form and with a good track record here and he was a little unlucky last time out, when initially denied a clear run over 6f at Newcastle before being switched out resulting in his heels being clipped a furlong from home effectively ending his race as he was eased down. An extra furlong and a clearer passage could see a different outcome here.

Bantz misses out, though, as I'm going with (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen from this one.

Race 5 @ 6.30...Style Of Life has obvious ability, as demonstrated by her 25122 finishes in September/October, but she has failed to shine in two runs on Tapeta since and needs to bounce back. She has been eased a pound in the ratings, but remains 5lbs higher than her last win, but is now 1lb lower than her Wolverhampton runner-up effort in October. Rapido Girl is 322 from her three A/W runs to date over 6/7f on Tapeta in the last seven weeks and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the 5/2 fav at Newcastle last time out. No reason why she can't/won't place again here.

Bella Kopella hasn't raced over today's trip in any of her last 14 starts over a similar amount of months, but her record on the A/W at this trip reads 212131 and considering she has been consistently outpaced over shorter trips of late, the step back up in trip is both interesting and logical. She should be well prepared as she has been kept quite busy over the last year. Starsong lost her way a little after finishes of 17332 (beaten by a head over C&D in the last of those five) in the first quarter of 2024, but she took advantage of a falling handicap mark to make the frame at Lingfield 12 days ago, beaten by just half a length as a runner-up and was half a length in front of third-placed Ravensbourne who was a 25/1 placer mentioned on this column yesterday.

Style of Life looks the weaker of the four, so I'll go with (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong here.

Race 6 @ 7.00...A poor-looking race to finish on, where only three horses make any appeal to me at all, so my 1-2-3 pretty much picks itself...

Autumn Angel has steadily improved on Tapeta over the last six weeks finishing 4321 with decreasing margins of defeat prior to a near-two length win over today's trip at Wolverhampton four days ago. This run of form means she now carries 5lbs more than the rest of the field, but she's clearly the form horse here.

Bernie The Bear was the runner-up in that race on Monday, staying on strongly and with the weight pull in his favour, he could be the main threat/challenge to Autumn Angel's hopes of doubling up. If not, he's always a viable place prospect after making the frame in 8 of 12 over 6f on the A/W.

Piperstown was third in back to back races (here at Southwell and then at Lingfield) in August/September and won here over 5f two starts ago, but failed to shine on New Year's Day when he never really got going in a Newcastle 5f sprint. The step up in trip might help and he could well bounce back, but I doubt he's beating either of the other two.

Piperstown looks a fair way below the other pair, so I'll just take (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear from this one.

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All of which gives me...

Leg 1: ((1) Sisterandbrother, (4) Paradoxical & (9) Khangai

Leg 2: (1) Palmar Bay, (2) Lattaash & (8) Perennial

Leg 3: (5) Macedonian, (6) Rebels Gamble & (7) Stardancer

Leg 4: (3) Brightandbeautiful, (6) Whizz By & (7) Empowered Queen

Leg 5: (2) Rapido Girl, (5) Bella Kopella & (10) Starsong

Leg 6: (1) Autumn Angel & (4) Bernie The Bear

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone.
Chris

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