Tix Picks

Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25

Thursday's racing comes from Ayr, Huntingdon & Newcastle
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

Let's follow the money and head to Newcastle for six contests on standard tapeta starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.52...Come On John has finished 13222 in his last five, all on Tapeta and has only gone down by a head, 0.75 lengths and ahead in his last three and looks like the one to beat here on form. even if he is up 2lbs today. Fifty Sent runs for the first time since May, when losing by a nose on the nod and he made the frame here four starts ago and could be of interest on his yard debut for Sam England.

Inspiring Speeches might be winless after 15 starts, but did show some promise in handicaps during 2024, finishing 23522 in a five-race block in August/September. He'll need to improve upon a 4 length defeat last time out, but he's down in weight here. Jujubella is another maiden, having failed to land any of her seven races to date, but since coming racing in the UK, has finished 434, all here at Newcastle over a mile. She was doing her best work late on each time, so the step up to 1m2f might just be the ticket.

This race is there to be won/lost for (2) Come On John, but I'll take (5) Inspiring Speeches & (8) Jujubella as backups.

Leg 2 @ 2.27...Bond Spirit is running pretty well right now, making the first four home in each of his last three starts over 1m4f-1m6f at Wolverhampton, all off a mark of 48. He has been eased a pound in the ratings and if holding his form, should be involved once more today. Busby ended a bit of a lean spell by winning at Southwell over 1m4f a fortnight ago, making all in what was his first run in a visor giving him an 11th career A/W win from 57 starts and with a 42% place strike rate on the A/W is usually a safe placepot pick.

Rubellite has finished 2344 on the tapeta in her last four starts off today's mark and whilst he doesn't win very often, he's usually very much involved in proceedings and there no reason why she can't make the frame today. The 12yo veteran Visitant is another who is often there or thereabouts, despite now being on a winless run of eighteen starts. His recent form has seen him make the frame in four of his last seven and was a half-length runner-up here over 1m2f in August and was also third here over course and distance just three weeks ago on his last run.

It's a modest-looking affair here, from which I'll take (3) Busby, (7) Rubellite & (9) Visitant for my bet builder.

Leg 3 @ 3.02...Lahab hasn't raced too often over today's trip of late, but was a course and distance runner-up last January off a mark 15lbs higher than today and was a runner-up again here (over 7f) two starts ago when only beaten inside the last furlong, so whilst not an obvious candidate could be dangerous off this current mark. Brazilian Rose is an interesting/unexposed type with just five (4 on A/W) starts to date. She won over 7f on debut at Lingfield in August and was third over today's trip on the tapeta at Wolverhampton in September. 5f here was probably too sharp for her, as she went down by just over 2.5 lengths, but the step back up to 6f might suit her.

Spartan Fighter went down by a couple of lengths over track/trip on his latest run, but was third at Chelmsford last month and a course and distance winner here back in October and is a danger here now returned to the same mark as that win. Noble Consort is, however, probably the one to beat despite a 5lb rise in the weights for a made-all course and distance win here just over a fortnight ago after a couple of decent efforts on the tapeta at both Southwell and Wolverhampton. He was a length and three quarters clear here last time out and wasn't really challenged, so could/should have more to give.

Of the four, Lahab is the least likely in my mind, leaving me with (2) Brazilian Rose, (4) Spartan Fighter & (6) Noble Consort.

Leg 4 @ 3.32...Tomorrow Day was in my overnight 1-2-3, but now doesn't run but there are still others to look at from a place perspective at worst, starting with Jimmy Knocker, a lightly raced 94 starts) 4 yr old, who fared well enough on his first crack at 6f in what was a handicap debut at Southwell a fortnight ago. He was, unfortunately, slow away and had to play catch up, but stayed on well in what ended up being a four-length defeat and he should come on for the experience. Yoshimi on the other hand, has 48 races under his belt with a healthy (for this level) 8 wins to his name. He has been better at 7f, but dropped back to today's trip last time out when beaten by three lengths at Wolverhampton and a better start sees him closer today off 1lb lower.

Oriental Prince comes here on a hat-trick, having won his last two, bother here at Newcastle over 5f, the most recent of which was yesterday and he carries no penalty for that success. He tends to stay on well enough, so the step back up to 6f (C&D runner-up in October) shouldn't be an issue. Hurstwood is the only other runner with a win in their recent form lines, but closer inspection shows that only 1 of his 9 career wins have been on the A/W and from 20 efforts, 19 of which have been here at Newcastle.

That said, he has a win and four further places from 17 starts over 6f/7f here, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he makes the frame again today, but I prefer (1) Jimmy Knocker, (2) Yoshimi & (5) Oriental Prince here.

Leg 5 @ 4.05...Encircle ran just once for Simon Crisford the best part of a year ago, but showed promise finishing as a one-length runner-up to stable mate Miss Bielsa at Wolverhampton. She now comes back from 342 days off the track to make a yard debut for Rebecca Menzies and will have the very useful 3lb claimer Kaiya Fraser in the saddle. Heavenly Heather was a runner-up here at this class/trip two starts ago, but faded late on when stepped up in class and trip last time out. She's now back down to Class 5 and back at 7f and should put up a better show than LTO.

General Admission was popular Kempton on debut in October, when sent sent off as the 3/1 second favourite and the market support was justified as he was only beaten by the 13/8 fav Yankee Dude who ran him out of it late on to win by 1.75 lengths. The run by General Admission probably sets the benchmark here and a similar effort should take this race. The third placed horse was a head behind him and he won a 16-runner maiden next time out. Lord Capulet is a half-brother to dual Group 1 winner Rosallion and whilst I'm not suggesting he's going to be that good, it is worth noting. He has raced just once to date and faded away at Redcar on soft ground back in November. This surface should be a little easier to run on, he should come on for the run and it's hard to ignore his breeding.

On results alone, I have to take (4) Encircle and (7) General Admission, but I'm also going to take a chance on the potential of (10) Lord Capulet. I've a feeling that Encircle might well go off at a big price and might well be worth a small (and I mean small!) E/W punt.

Leg 6 @ 4.40...Streak Lightning has finished third in each of his last two starts, both here over course and distance last month and he runs off the same mark as when scoring over track/trip back in September. Finn Ironside had a decent second half to 2024 finishing 213434 in his last six outings. The final two runs in that sequence were over today's course and distance, beaten by 2.5 and 3 lengths respectively. A slight 1lb drop in weight might help slightly and he should be there or thereabouts today.

Angel Of Antrim looks the one to beat, though, based on her last two efforts; a pair of 5-length wins over course and distance five and twelve days ago. Another similar effort should easily be enough here and she's 6lb well in under a penalty. Ravensbourne completes my shortlist despite being a 14-race (10 on A/W) maiden for four different trainers. Her current mark of 53 (down from70 a year ago) is probably more suitable for her and she comes here off the back of a pair of third placed finishes at Lingfield, the best of which was a one-length defeat 11 days ago on her latest yard debut off today's mark.

(6) Angel Of Antrim is my clear pick here and I've little to separate the other trio if truth be told, but I'll take (4) Streak Lightning and (5) Finn Ironside for backup.

*

All of which gives me...



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Leg 1: (2) Come On John, (5) Inspiring Speeches & (8) Jujubella

Leg 2: (3) Busby, (7) Rubellite & (9) Visitant

Leg 3: (2) Brazilian Rose, (4) Spartan Fighter & (6) Noble Consort

Leg 4: (1) Jimmy Knocker, (2) Yoshimi & (5) Oriental Prince

Leg 5: (4) Encircle, (7) General Admission & (10) Lord Capulet

Leg 6: (4) Streak Lightning, (5) Finn Ironside & (6) Angel Of Antrim

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck everybody!
Chris

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