Tag Archive for: Leicester

Roving Reports: Data Driven Drizzle

It's a wet and cold Monday morning here in Nottingham, writes David Massey, and the news has just been announced that it's been the warmest January since they started measuring such things, which apparently was in 1919. As a slave to the data then of course - of course! - I believe the science when it tells me as such. It's just that the places I seem to have visited during that most miserable of months have managed to dodge any semblance of sunshine, as demonstrated by the fact I don't recall any tracks I attended having to miss out obstacles because of low sun.

I tell a lie - Doncaster on a Friday. Ah yes, I remember it well now. The warmth on the back of my neck as I wrote my notes about the brave and talented warriors about to contest the 0-100 handicap hurdle. A brief glimpse of potential spring, snatched away not two days later as I tried to make my way around a flooded Herefordshire.

Yes, I did one of my bi-annual excursions to the Welsh borders at the end of last month. After making a day trip to Cheltenham on the Saturday and remarking how much the water had receded around the Evesham area since my last visit, by the time Monday came back around it was starting to rise again, and quickly. I stayed in Worcester, by the cricket ground, on the Sunday night (although I didn't realise this until first light Monday morning, when the first thing I saw on opening the curtains was the Basil d'Oliveira Stand) and no sooner had I arrived there than the words "precautionary inspection" were uttered at Hereford, along with the phrase "cautiously optimistic". As I've said before, any clerk of the course using the word "optimistic" in an update should be fined five grand, and ten if they precede it with "cautiously". The BHA could, however, use that money to pay for trainer interviews, where famous Berkshire handler Willie Runnem-Ornot can tell us his horse has had a setback for the Cheltenham Festival, but he's "cautiously optimistic" he can get him back on track if Kempton will let the lad have a gallop round next Tuesday when there's no press about. That'll be two grand please. Cash in a brown envelope? Yes, that’ll do fine, thanks for coming along.

And so, early Monday, Hereford bites the dust, and I'm left in a hotel room in Worcester with little to do but look at an empty Graeme Hick stand and nowhere much to go. I'm tempted to hoik it up to Monmore Greyhounds for their afternoon meeting, but my next stop is Ross-on-Wye, in readiness for Chepstow on Tuesday, and I'd be heading the wrong way. I decide instead to do the sensible thing, and just do some pre-emptive Cheltenham writing whilst drinking more hotel coffee than is probably good for me.

The rain is still falling as I set off for Ross. A wise man would have gone back to the motorway at this point and stayed on the main roads but I'm a romantic idiot with time on my hands and decided to go the scenic route using the back roads. I'm glad I did, in some ways - stunning vistas as I drive in the shadow of the Malvern Hills and I also trundle past someone's training establishment - I still haven't worked out who it was - through one of the villages.

Then, about four or five miles out of Ross, there's trouble. I'm in a village where the only way through it is via a bridge, and that's flooded, badly. I stop and try to work out the situation. Gamble, drive through and potentially flood the engine, or (according to Google Maps) track back almost eight miles and add another half an hour to my journey time? I didn't need to wait long for an answer. A lorry goes past me and through the flood. It's deep, too deep. This is confirmed by a Range Rover who does the same, and barely gets through it. For once, common sense kicks in and I turn around. The Malverns look as lovely as they did twenty minutes ago from the reverse angle.

You know that feeling you get sometimes when you arrive somewhere and think "I've been here before, but I can't quite remember when?" - I get that as I pull up in Ross at my Premier Inn. I know I've been here, but I can't quite remember when, or why. Then it dawns on me. I came here once with a good friend a long, long time ago on the way back from our one and only trip to Ffos Las. We had dinner in the Beefeater next door and then a night of great sex in the hotel. Well, that's my recollection of things. She says we just had a poorly-cooked steak and the only pudding I got was sticky toffee before we hit the M50 half an hour later. I think she's probably right. I suspect I've let my imagination get the better of me. It was about ten years ago, after all. Anyway, I'm here again, and I ask the receptionist to book me into the (now) Travellers Rest next door for dinner.

"You'll have a job. The place closed months ago. It's derelict and being knocked down." That's the end of that, then. Serves them right for undercooking my steak.

There's a precautionary inspection at Chepstow tomorrow now. This journey could be a fairly expensive busted flush. However, some light emerges at the end of the tunnel, and for once it isn't an oncoming train.

To amuse myself whilst writing I've had an each-way Yankee at Plumpton and after a 25-1 winner (in a four-horse race too, all to win!) along with another winner and place it's looking pretty good. I'm offered a decent cash out. I never cash out. Never. But... the cash out would cover the price of the trip, and if Chepstow bit the dust tomorrow, it wouldn't matter too much. For the second time in a day, I do the sensible thing and cash out. Do I need to tell you what happened to the fourth selection? Of course I don't. It won half the track. The only consolation being I did have a few quid on as a single. Still, a bit gutting, although I remind myself the whole trip is now paid for if it all goes blank tomorrow. And as the rain falls down on a humdrum town, as The Smiths warbled back in 1984, it has to be said that looks a very likely scenario.

Tuesday morning. Miracle of miracles, Chepstow is somehow on. I'm actually going to get some racing.

I'm going with my friend Alex who I haven't seen in years. She awards herself the title of "Assistant Media Bitch" for the day, which not only suits her well, but could catch on elsewhere, I reckon. I know a few that would fit that title perfectly. Anyway, we have a cracking day, the highlight of which - for her - was making Richard Hoiles a cup of tea. "It won't get any better than that today", she excitedly shrieks. I manage to find a couple of losers before Royal Jewel digs me out, and then Lagertha is something of a paddock standout in the Mares Novice. It'll be a winning day, which is always nice. I don't have a penny on Jo Lescribaa but I'm delighted for my friend Andy who has a interest in her, and all in all it's been a really enjoyable trip despite the grim weather. Better still, it has rekindled Alex's love for a day at the races. She hasn't been for some time - "the game isn't the same as it was", she says, but I hope she will go racing, at least in midweek when it's a bit quieter, again in the near future. The drive home is a long one, but a call in at the ever-lovely Gloucester Services breaks it up.

Back to the present day. The app on my phone now tells me "Rain coming in under an hour." Any chance of a look at that weather data again, please? It's Leicester on Thursday and Haydock on Saturday for me this week. The Trackside bobble hat will be on, I can assure you. Say hello if you see me, or if it's as warm as the data says, Stop Me and Buy One. Either way, have a great week.

- DM

Tix Picks, 18/11/24

Another small profit on Saturday, which was a pity as the post highlighted all six winners including 10/1 Il Ridoto in the big race; and four of the six exactas (1-2) which paid £8.10, £60.60, £8.50 and £21.80!

There's plenty to go at again today, with jumps racing from Leicester, Plumpton and Exeter; and evening action from Southwell and Wolverhampton.

If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

 

 

 

We're heading to Leicester and a video Tix preview today, so I can show you the tool as well as the Tix Picks!

 

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All of which gives us the following, as it looks in the Tix software. Do give it a try if you haven't already. Even if you just want to do a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or some such, just put all your picks in the 'A' column and that will get you a 5% bonus on any returns.

 

 

 

 

Good Luck!
MATT

Tix Picks, Tuesday 15/10/24

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Leicester, Market Rasen, Newcastle & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Newcastle, but there's the uncertainty of heavy ground at Leicester, so we'll head there for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 2.28, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Questionable had finished 232 in her three runs before a comfortable win at Sandown last time out, so she certainly wasn't winning out of turn and despite a hike in weights, she's clearly the form horse here. Phone Tag didn't seem to be going anywhere under Hugo Palmer, but ran a very fine second of six on heavy ground at Chester on his yard debut for Kevin Frost a month ago behind a horse who loves soft/heavy ground and he takes a drop in class today.

Elsewhere Orbital is 1225 in her last four starts and drops in trip after failing to see 1m3f out at Kempton recently, whilst 8-race maiden Another Beautiful cams as close as she has to winning so far, when only beaten by a length as third of eleven over this trip at Beverley three weeks ago.

From a stats perspective, Questionable's yard are in good nick and have a decent record here at Leicester despite not sending many runners here; they also do well at keeping LTO winners running well...

Low draws are often favourable here and this along with Instant Expert brings Croeso Cymraeg into the equation too...

...and it might be worth chancing the veteran (1) Croeso Cymraeg under these conditions as a back-up to (2) Questionable leaving me to pick from Phone Tag, Orbital and Another Beautiful and I think the manner of that run last time out from (3) Phone Tag just tips the balance his way.

Leg 2 @ 2.58, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 1m...

A fairly modest affair here with only three horses ever having made the frame. Keep Singing probably shades it on form having finished 3272 in her last four, whilst Freak Encounter has been third in each of his last two starts with Keep Singing's stablemate Good Call third two starts ago and fourth last time out when these three met at Southwell sixteen days ago...

Keep Singing is raised 2lbs for that run, but is probably still the one to best here and Freak Encounter should still hold Good Call on the basis on that last run and although you could make a case for the likes of Capricorn King who drops in trip here, I think I'll stick with the closely matched trio who have shown some recent form ie (3) Keep Singing, (7) Freak Encounter & (8) Good Call

Leg 3 @ 3.28, a 5-runner, Class 4, 2yo novice stakes over 6f...

Five run here, but three are on debut and could be anything/nothing, of course. To be fair to the pair with racecourse experience, they've done OK so far without ripping trees up. (3) Maids Head has been third on both starts, beaten by six lengths each time whilst (4) My Mate Beattie improved upon her debut effort by coming home strongly to finish as a runner-up at Newcastle three weeks ago and I think I'll just bank on one or both of these getting home in the first two!

Leg 4 @ 3.58, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 7f...

A Major Payne was second of eleven at Windsor over 1m½f on soft ground last time out, whilst Swift Storm has been third of twelve over 7f in both career starts, the latest being on soft ground. Sadly, neither of them have seen a racecourse for over five months and might well need the run, although Swift Storm did have 173 days between his first two outings!

The above layoffs might well open the door for LTO winner Arolla to double up; she was pretty comfortable at Ffos Las on debut in July getting home by more than three lengths despite starting a little slowly. Tex, Doctor Awtaad and Darkest Intention all showed very little on debut and would need to improve dramatically to beat the above trio despite two of them have been off track, whilst the market isn't keen on debutant Stone Forest at all.

A bit of a cop out here, but it's (1) Arolla, (2) A Major Payne & (5) Swift Storm for me from this one.

Leg 5 @ 4.30, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3-4yo seller over 7f...

Trainer Jennie Candlish won this race last year and her runner here Alzahir looks the one to beat today. he's rated some 12 to 27lbs better than all of his rivals but only carries 7lbs more than the bottom-weight Gaiety Musical. Alzahir's last eleven races have been 9 x Class 2 and 2 x Class 3 and he really should be too good for the field today.

Very few of these come here in any sort of form, highlighted by the fact that the best 'recent' runs are Rajwaan's 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 2 lengths on heavy at Haydock followed by a win at Southwell. The fly in the ointment here being that the Southwell run was two weeks short of two years ago!

Classy Boy's yard is in good nick...

...which is a positive and he scores well on Instant Expert, as does Blufferonthebus...

Lower drawn runners fare well here, so that's another tick for both Alzahir and Blufferonthebus, but it's Liberty Mountain who gets the rail, whilst the recent pace scores look like this...

...so I'm with (1) Classy Boy, (2) Blufferonthebus & (5) Alzahir. I'll keep an eye out for Rajwaan, who might prove to be better than his 50/1 ticket if he's not too rusty!

Leg 6 @ 5.03, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Former course and distance winner Spirit Genie won on heavy ground at Haydock last time out for a third win in six starts and on the basis of that run should be the one to beat today. Executive Decision was badly outpaced over 6f and has been getting close without winning over that trip recently so should appreciate the extra furlong here as she seems to do all her best work late on (not ideal at Leicester, sadly).

Pearle D'Or hasn't raced for four months, but when last seen ran pretty well on quicker ground than this. That said, he was a winner over this trip/class at Newbury when last faced with heavy ground and is only rated 3lbs higher here.

It Just Takes Time comes here in good heart after his last three runs have seen him finish as runner-up over 6f at Ripon beaten by just half a length flollowed by a gutsy two-length defeat as 4th of 18 at York last month, but he stepped up in trip last time out and made all to win by a length and a quarter at Beverley three weeks ago.

These four would be my initial ones to watch based on recent handicap form, but I'm also drawn to handicap debutant Mahato, who remains unexposed after just three runs. He won a 15-runner, Class 5 Novice event over on debut at Windsor a year ago, getting home by more than two lengths on soft ground, before an A/W debut at Newcastle four weeks alter saw him a respectable fourth of twelve up in class. His next/last run was a month ago (307 days after his second run!), where despite the layoff and not getting near he winner, he was second home of seven on standard to slow at Kempton in a strung out field and could be dangerously weighted here and his jockey Cieran Fallon has had a good year on the Haggas team's horses...

All five runners I mentioned above score well on Instant Expert, as does class dropper Burdett...

It Takes Time and Executive Decision seem to have the best of the draw here and with (7) It Just Takes Time having a pace profile like this...

...he has to be on my Tix ticket builder. (1) Spirit Genie is the form horse and scores best on IE, so he's in too along with (2) Executive Decision who just edges out Pearle D'Or who might need a run and Mahato who lacks experience.

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All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Croeso Cymraeg, (2) Questionable & (3) Phone Tag

Leg 2: (3) Keep Singing, (7) Freak Encounter & (8) Good Call

Leg 3: (3) Maids Head & (4) My Mate Beattie

Leg 4: (1) Arolla, (2) A Major Payne & (5) Swift Storm

Leg 5: (1) Classy Boy, (2) Blufferonthebus & (5) Alzahir.

Leg 6: (1) Spirit Genie, (2) Executive Decision & (7) It Just Takes Time

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


Good Luck!
Chris