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Stat of the Day, 8th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 08/03/13

Stat of the Day: 08/03/13

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2013

SotD remains firmly on the cold list, as I seem unable to hit a cow's @r$* with a banjo at present. Yesterday's selection Flying Pickets seemed to have a chance of a place at the 2 pole, but failed to fly when asked. Our 9/1 shot had drifted out to 12/1 and finished 5th, a length and a half outside the money places.

We're going chasing in Oadby today and it's a 2 mile Novice Handicap Chase on soft ground, where eight runners will contest the ...

3.00 Leicester

It's an all-chase card at Leicester today and when it comes to chasing at Leicester, there aren't many with better records than Mrs Caroline Bailey.

In the four-year period between 2009 and the end of 2012, Caroline saddled up nine winners from 33 in chases here. This strike rate of 27.3% was enough to produce level stakes profits of 34pts (+103%) at SP, whilst the E/W backers saw a return on their money in 56.25% of races to the tune of 56.6pts = 88.4% profit.

Mrs Bailey has just one runner today and thus, by default, Refusal becomes today's selection.

Refusal is actually still a maiden, but has looked progressive recently when finishing third in his last two starts, both here at Leicester. Today will be his sixth attempt over fences and despite not winning any of the previous five, his record which reads 34533 suggests he's knocking on the door for at least a place today.

Last time out, he was third here over 2 miles 4.5 furlongs and that seemed too long for him and he should appreciate the drop back in trip to the minimum 2 miles, where ran pretty well on his penultimate outing in January. That was on heavy ground here and although he was staying on at the end, the slightly better ground should be an advantage for him today.

I think there's definitely a win in this horse today, but his consistent place form allied to the good returns from his trainer in Leicester chases suggest that an E/W bet might well be tho order of the day. We'll keep our fingers crossed that there'll be no non-runners from the eight declared to run and we'll stake 0.5pts E/W on Refusal at 13/2 BOG with Bet365. He was available (at 10.45am) at 8.20 / 2.75 on Betfair and also at 7/1 non-Bog (Sporting Bet), so to take your pick, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.00 Leicester

P.S. Andrew Thornton takes the ride today and he was on board for 18 of those 33 chasers sent out by Mrs Bailey mentioned above. He scored seven wins and five places from those 18 rides. The 38.9% win strike rate and the 55.6% place strike made profits of 23.5pts (+130.6% POI) and 32.4pts (+89.9% POI) respectively.

Well I Declare, 6th December

Well I Declare, 6th December

Well I Declare, 6th December

Action today from Leicester, Market Rasen, Wincanton & Lingfield. here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's Well I Declare feature for...

...THURSDAY (06/12):

Leicester:

General stats: Tony McCoy’s 43% strike rate (via twenty winners) stands head and shoulders above his rivals whilst on the training front, both Fergal O’Brian and Richard Harper boast 2/2 ratios.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Couple Nicky Henderson’s strike rate in December last year (see stats above) with his 41% ratio here at Market Rasen and you have a recipe for plenty of winners.

 

Wincanton:

General stats: Tim Vaughan (24% strike rate) and Emma Lavelle (22%) are emerging as understudies to the lead role of Paul Nicholls (27%) at Wincanton via recent results.

Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.40: All nine winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 11-4 during which time, five winners were returned at odds ranging between 16/1 and 50/1.  Four five-year-olds won during the study period, accompanied by just two successful market leaders who represented the vintage.

Class 4 ‘Silver Buck’ handicap chase event due to be contested at 2.10: Last year’s 2/1 market leader could only finish second (beaten three lengths) following six consecutive successful favourites.

Two mile Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Fiver-year-olds secured six of the nine contests during the last decade during which time, seven winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  Three joint favourites have obliged though successful clear favourites were only conspicuous by their absence.

Wincanton’s closing conditional jockey’s event set for 3.40: Favourites have won four of the eight renewals, whilst Venetia Williams has won with her last two runners in the contest.  At the time of writing, Venetia only had Last Shot entered up in the race.

 

Lingfield (transferred from Wolverhampton):

General stats: The 46% strike rate of favourites in the non handicap sector at Lingfield stands close inspection, whilst the 33% ratio of market leaders in three-year-old handicaps is a perfectly decent return during the last five years.

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012 (Take Two!)

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012

Stock Hill Fair finished 2nd yesterday and despite finishing some 8 lengths behind a rejuvenated Betchworth Kid, ran a very good race and led for the majority of the contest. Matt had advised us to take the 14/1 E/W on offer from bet365, which proved to be a smart move, as our selection was sent off at 15/2. However, the 2nd place finish meant a profit of 1.25pts for the bank and also (somewhat self-congratulatory) we're pleased to announce that this was the 100th winning SotD bet from Matt and myself in the last 11 months.

Anyway, enough of yesterday, I'm back in the SotD chair for the next 10 days or so and it's now my task to kickstart the next century of winners! And as Newcastle was abandoned this morning, I've had to rethink plans on what looks a difficult day. So we're off to Oadby for a Class 6 Seller over 7 furlongs. The going is currently Soft with more rain forecast, which should prove quite testing for the 10 runners in today's...

2.40 Leicester

The old adage is "horses for courses" and today I've tried to concentrate on a horse suited to the conditions rather than a trainer stat.

I'm going with Barista today, who has performed very well on each on his previous five starts in selling company with a record of 31123, solid place form there and he's 312 in Leicester sellers, so we know he "gets" the track, where his overall record reads 3112532

We know it's going to be tough out there today and the official going is Soft, but as it's raining now and is due to rain for pretty much most of the day, I wouldn't be surprised in the ground doesn't deteriorate further in the next few hours. This, however, won't cause our selection much concern, as he has a very good record on heavy ground with two wins and two runner-up positions from just five races. He was actually fourth in his only unplaced run on heavy ground in better company than this today.

Due to the fact that the favourite Tunnager Grove is hovering around even money, there's some decent odds on offer from Stan James for this race and they're currently showing 8/1 BOG for our selection. So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W at 8/1 BOG with Stan James, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 2.40 Leicester.


Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2012

Stat of the Day 4/9

Stat of the Day 4/9

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2012

The very aptly named Looks Like Rain was a comfortable winner in the end yesterday. As predicted, our selection made full use of the extra 100yds or so and stayed on strongly to win with plenty left (in my opinion, of course!) We took the 9/2 on offer early, which was good advice as the Sp was 11/4. It was also interesting to note that the other Ellison/de Sousa mount won too!  Our follow-up attempt only takes us about 45 miles East of last evening's success, as we look at a Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs. Our choice currently has 13 to beat on good to firm ground in the...

2.30 Leicester

Marcus Tregoning has sent very few horses to Leicester in recent times: just six in the last two years to be precise. But when you see that those six horses have returned 3 winners and 3 places, our attention is grabbed immediately when he sends the horse-box to Leicester. His record over the last 2 years here actually reads 311312.

Marcus is represented by two runners here today: Gilded Frame runs in the 3.05 (currently 7/2 favourite) and stands a good chance if running to the best of his ability and breeding. His previous 2 efforts have been a little disappointing, but his task looks easier today. However, I think our best chance lies in the preceding race with Konstantin.

Konstantin won three handicaps over this trip in 2011, but was slow to get back into form this year. However, he battled to a narrow victory at this same level at Folkestone last time out and a similar effort should be enough to take this one. He also has a Course & Distance win under his belt from his only appearance at this track. He was partnered by Hayley Turner that day and she takes the ride again today: she also rides Gilded Frame in the 3.05.

Konstantin is currently best priced at 13/2 with betVictor and at that price, I'll take the safer E/W option, but as always, I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest odds for the 2.30 Leicester.

Trainer Stats: 9th Aug 2012

Mark Johnston Has His String In Fine Form

Andy Newton continues this week with 8 flat trainers to look out for..... Read more

Well I Declare, 1st August

Well I Declare, 1st August

Well I Declare, 1st August

A quick recap of Mal's thoughts for today:

WEDNESDAY 01/08:

Goodwood:

General stats: Horses which gained their latest victory at Goodwood, Newmarket (July) and Ascot head the sector where we examine which tracks serve best for the ‘Glorious Goodwood’ meeting.

2.00: Four-year-olds have won six of the last thirteen renewals of this Goodwood Stakes event, notwithstanding the narrow ‘three parts’ defeat of my fancy Seaside Sizzler in last year’s contest at 14/1.  Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

2.35: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around, represented by his Group 2 Superlative Stakes winner (and ‘Coventry’ runner up) Olympic Glory.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed, whilst ten market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

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3.10: The last four favourites of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes have obliged and in defending champion Frankel this time around, we are witnessing one of the hottest favourites ever to tackle a contest at the top level of the sport.  Three-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals but this year’s lone vintage raider Gabrial would surely have to start now to have any chance in receipt of just seven pounds from what might emerge as the greatest horse we have ever seen.  I have seen most of the greats in the flesh thankfully, include Brigadier Gerard, Nijinsky and Dancing Brave to name but three, but if Frankel were to remain undefeated (hopefully contesting a Group 1 ten furlong event before his retirement), the Galileo colt could rewrite the history books.  In a nutshell, Aidan O’Brien in not contesting the race which is about all you need to know.  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst twelve of the fifteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.45: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst we still await the first winning favourite since the turn of the Millennium, during which time horses have scored at odds ranging between 5/1 & 14/1, with five of those gold medallists returned in double figures.

4.20: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite (level stake profit of £687.72 to one hundred pound stakes) have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Twelve of the eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.55: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, whilst vintage representatives landed a 1-2-3 result in the contest twelve months ago at odds of 14/1-7/1-22/1 via 59% of the total number of runners.  Five favourites have obliged during the last decade, whilst six of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

Leicester:

General stats: Geoff Harker secured a 16/1 double at last year’s corresponding meeting.

 

Redcar:

General stats: James Given bypassed the Goodwood meeting to decent effect by saddling a 17/2 double at Redcar twelve months ago. 

 

Perth:

General stats: Perth’s toteplacepot dividend last year of £314.90 was a decent reward given that regular readers of the form at this racecourse can often determine the right horses to include in their permutations.

Well I Declare, 19th July

Well I Declare 19/7/12

Well I Declare 19/7/12

Today's action comes from Bath, Brighton, Doncaster, Epsom and Hamilton, but Leicester has once again failed to beat the weather!
Here's a recap of Mal Boyle's thoughts for the day...

THURSDAY 19/7:

Bath:

General stats: Gabriel’s Lad was due to be ridden in the scheduled 7.35 event by Eddie Ahern who is not the most regular visitor to Bath races.  Eddie boasts a 22% strike rate at the track via fourteen winners in recent years, a ratio which has produced fourteen points of level stake profits.  Watch out for any additional rides that Eddie picks up at the meeting.

 

Brighton:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda (38%) and Saeed Bin Suroor (36% via far less runners) are trainers to keep on the right side, as his Neil Callan who rides this track as well any anyone. Neill boasts eighteen points of level stake profits via eighty-six rides at the track in recent times.

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Doncaster:

General stats: Roger Varian (33%), Sir Henry Cecil (26%) and Luca Cumani (24%) all boast decent strike rates at Doncaster and held options at the meeting at the time of writing.

Maiden event for juvenile fillies due to be contested at 6.50: Favourites come into the contest on a hat trick, whilst three of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Juvenile Novice event over six furlong scheduled for 7.25: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.

One mile Conditions event due to be contests at 7.55: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.

Ten furlong Class 4 all aged handicap scheduled for 8.30: Only one of the three subsequent favourites finished in the frame following the success of the inaugural 3/1 market leader in 2008.  Four-year-olds have won three renewals to date, with just one beaten representative when the vintage missed out two years ago.

Ten furlong Class 5 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 9.00: Three of the four favourites have secured place money, though all three market leaders have been beaten from a win perspective since 2008 when the inaugural 6/4 'jolly' obliged.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Andrew Balding still boasts an impressive fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 23% strike rate  at Epsom during the last five years, with the trainer holding five options for the meeting earlier in the week. 

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Two riders who do not receive as many plaudits as others can be kept on the right side at Hamilton.  Amy Ryan boasts a 26% strike rate via eleven winners at the track, a ratio which has netted fifty-three points of level stake profits.  Jason Hart has ridden four winners via just twelve assignments at the venue.

 

Leicester: ABANDONED!

General stats: I’m sure that Saeed Bin Suroor would love the opportunity of improving his 41% strike rate at Leicester…if only the venue could stage a meeting sometime this year!

Well I Declare, 7th July 2012

Well I Declare, 7th July 2012

Well I Declare, 7th July 2012

The torrential downpour continues to wreak havoc with the racing calendar. Meetings at Carlisle, Leicester & Nottingham scheduled for today have already been abandoned, whilst both Beverley & Haydock must face a 7am inspection before announcing whether any action wil take place.

These were Mal Boyle's thoughts about the day, before the spate of abandonments kicked in.


SATURDAY 7/7:

Beverley:

General stats: David Lanigan was mentioned in dispatches earlier in the analysis and his record of 6/11 here at Beverley also makes for interesting reading.

 

Carlisle: NOW ABANDONED

General stats: James Turner is an unfamiliar name to keep in your black book, especially here at Carlisle where the trainer has saddled two of just five runners to winning effect.

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Haydock:(7AM INSPECTION!)

General stats: Look at Friday’s comments which could be relevant to Saturday’s meeting, whilst throwing in the fact that Charlie Hills (25% strike rate) has done well at Haydock during his first year of training.

Mile and a half 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.20: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals of this opening event.  Only one of the last five market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position, a 2/5 favourite being listed among the casualties.

Lancashire Oaks scheduled for 2.55: Although eight winners of the Lancashire Oaks during the last decade were returned at odds of 13/2 or less, only two favourites have scored.  John Gosden has saddled three of the last nine winners and only his potential representative Great Heavens was 'jocked up' (Robert Havlin) on Tuesday morning.

The Old Newton Cup scheduled for 3.25: Four-year-olds have won seven renewals of the Old Newton Cup during the last decade, whilst just two market leaders have obliged during the study period.  Luca Cumani held two options earlier in the week with the trainer having saddled three of the last eight winners of this Class 2 event.

Two-year-old handicap event scheduled for 4.00: Happy days are here again as the Nursery season has arrived though unfortunately this is a new race on the racing calendar, whereby we will have to wait for a contest with trends in place.  Watch this (Nursery) space.  If it is of any help to you, Richard Hannon was responsible for three of the sixteen five-day declarations, two of which figured in the top three ratings by the assessor, though Rod Millman’s Indesatchel colt Yes Two took pride of place at the top of the handicap off a mark of eighty-five at the time of writing.

Six furlong conditions event scheduled for 5.10: Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick having secured three of the last five renewals, whilst three favourites have won via nine contests during the last decade. Eight of the gold medallists were returned at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst just one of the last five market leaders has finished in the money.

 

Leicester: NOW ABANDONED

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has long since ruled the Leicester roost as his recent 41% strike rate confirms.  Keep any Gary Moore runners on the right side as well given Gary’s 5/16 ratio. 

 

Nottingham: NOW ABANDONED

General stats: Michael Appleby’s 5/16 ratio catch the eye as do the fifty-four level stake profits of Roy Bowring down the years at Nottingham.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Clive Cox is the man for the LSP readers among you having produced a positive figure of thirty-three points at the Esher venue in recent years.  Sir Mark Prescott (36% strike rate) looked set to have representatives at the course later in the week via Monday’s penultimate stage declarations.

‘Coral Eclipse’ scheduled for 3.45: Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winners during the last decade and his four representatives on Monday were headed up last year’s half length winner So You Think who was an odds on chance at the time of writing.  Favourites have won the last three renewals before which time, six renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader having been registered.  Eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.

 

Well I Declare, 28th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 28h June 2012

Well, I Declare! 28h June 2012

Good Morning!

Today's action comes from Hamilton, Leicester, Newcastle, Warwick & Yarmouth and once again we've got Mal Boyle's view on the day's events.


THURSDAY 28/6:

Hamilton:

General stats: Given that Joe Fanning has ridden one hundred and thirty-four horses at Hamilton during the last five years, his 25% strike rate is an impressive figure to boast.  On the training front, Elaine Burke’s 25% strike rate is backed up by an LSP figure of over twenty points.

 

Leicester:

General stats: Gary Moore’s 31% strike rate is worth noting though this is another Leicester fixture which could be lost to a waterlogged track.

 

Newcastle:

Stats from the three-day meeting last year:

20 races--21 winners via one dead heat:

Favourite details (25 market leaders): 7 winners--6 placed--12 unplaced

Two odds on favourites: Winner at 4/11 & placed at 5/6

16 of the 21 winners were returned at 15/2 or less

Other gold medallists scored at 11/1-12/1-16/1-18/1-25/1

Doubles on the relevant days:

Thursday: Brian Ellison (25/1--one of his winners dead heated)

Friday: Jim Goldie (11/1)

Brian saddled one more winner on another day to be leading trainer at the meeting

No other trainers saddled more than one winner during the three-day ‘festival’.

Ruth Carr, David O‘Meara, Brian Ellison and David Nicholls all saddled two beaten favourites

Toteplacepot returns:

Thursday: £48.10 (average dividend over the last ten years: £459.15)

Friday: £29.00 (average dividend over the last ten years: £595.82)

Saturday: £1,869.20 (average dividend over the last ten years: £911.18)

 

Warwick:

General stats: Sir Henry Cecil’s 42% strike rate in recent times stands out from the crowd, statistics which have enabled Tom Queally to steal the riding honours on a regular basis. 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Three of William Knight’s last seven runners have finished second and his LSP figure of nearly seventy points at Yarmouth suggests that another decent priced winner could be on the horizon.

Trainer Stats: 14th June 2012

Cecil Heading To Ascot In Form

This week Andy Newton gives you five flat and five NH yards to look out for.......... Read more

Trainer Stats: 26th April 2012

Roger Varian Has His String In Fine Form

Andy Newton highlights 8 flat trainers that are starting the new season on the front foot........... Read more

Trainer Stats – 24th Nov

Henderson Fired In 7 Winners On Monday

After his 7 winners on Monday we all know Nicky Henderson’s string are in fine form, but which other handlers are worth following this week? Read more

Well I Declare, 13th July 2011

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Gay Kelleway has a chance at Lingfield today

Well I declare……

I hope you latched on to several winners last week which included those returned at 25/1 and 10/1! Read more