Tag Archive for: Tix

Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Newcastle, Salisbury, Southwell & Warwick.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

*

The biggest pot is at Chelmsford, where the polytrack is standard to slow for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 5.00 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo novice stakes over 1m...

Not a great deal to work with here, but Biniorella Bay has ran creditably in defeat with two fourth place finishes at Group 3 since winning at Newmarket in June. She sets the standard here and with her yard in good form and with a decent record at this venue, she'd be the one to beat for me with the main danger coming from Mythical Bird who finished 3rd of 13 at Kempton last time out.

Neoma has a pair of runner-up finishes to her name, but those races didn't seem as strong as the Kempton race above, whilst the unknown quantity here is the Roger Varian-trained Protest, who might end up being the one most likely to upset the applecart

(1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m...

Grand Duchess Olga won relatively comfortably over this trip at Kempton in June and was then third upped in class over the same track/trip next/last time out. She's had a rest since mid-July and now drops back in class and should go well. Pfingstberg had finished 331231 in his six runs this year before a disappointing effort at Beverley (7th of 8) last time out. He, too, has had a break and if returning to his previous good form, has an excellent chance here.

Dereham has been getting closer to winning recently, finishing third in each of his last two starts and only went down by a length and a half at Pontefract a fortnight ago. Easter Icon did win last time out, but that was over hurdles and he hasn't run well on level ground since winning at Wolverhampton over 1m6f back in February. Simiyann and Taxiing are both right out of form at the moment but bottom weight Veer (9lb 3yo weight allowance) was a runner-up in back to back 1m6f handicaps at Southwell and Nottingham in July/August prior to struggling when upped in trip to 2m at Newcastle recently.

And after looking at both Instant Expert and the top of the pace chart...

...I'm going with (1) Pfingstberg and (3) Grand Duchess Olga along with (5) Dereham who looks on the verge of landing a race soon.

Leg 3 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 7f...

Telford won over course and distance on handicap debut last time out, Matharu has finished 212 in his last three starts and has a stack of trainer/jockey stats to support his claims...

The Feminine Urge was a winner two starts ago and Rotation won three back and that's pretty much it from a form perspective, although Brandywine Falls has run better than two fourth places on the bounce might suggest, especially last time out when staying on strongly over 6f at Redcar. The line came too quickly for him that day and the step up to 7f here might be his shot at getting off the mark.

We'd now normally look for speedy types over 7f here at Chelmsford, but with no obvious front-runner in the pack...

...I'll refer back to my notes above and take (8) Matharu and (11) Telford on form with the promise/prospect of  more to come from (7) Brandywine Falls over this trip.

Leg 4 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f...

A modest looking contest with only really Dancing Magic looking like he might win a race soon, even if he is a 16-race maiden. He was a runner-up at Chester four starts ago and again here over a mile last time out, beaten by just a length and a quarter and that run sets the standard here, I feel. He was only headed inside the final furlong by the 92-rated 4/11 fav and the drop in trip should help here.

Next best is probably/possibly Stanage who has made the frame three times from his five starts, but could only finish 6th of 10 on his A/W debut last time out. That said, he has been rated at 81 by the assessors, so they might have seen something in him and he'll wear blinkers for the first time today.

As for a third pick here, the field seems much of a muchness, but the market seems to suggest the filly Jumeirah Sea might be the one to pose the biggest threat. She improved upon her debut effort when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Kempton four weeks ago and a drop in both trip and class could see her get closer today.

(1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5 : 7.00 Chelmsford, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

On form, you have to start with the three LTO winners; Pinball Wizard scored over this trip at Wolverhampton ten days ago and is 3 from 4 on standard to slow polytrack. Nammos won here over course and distance a month ago on her second yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam and Desert Dream comes here seeking a hat-trick after two wins over today's trip at Catterick. He might well be 10yrs old now, but he has been in the first three home in four of his last five.

I did, however, have doubts about all three here from a pace perspective as none tend to race from the front, which is often the key to success over shorter trips here at Chelmsford, but closer inspection of the whole field suggests a falsely run race anyway, which would suit horses who don't tend to lead...

Guiteau, Super Hit and Solara might well make a break for it early on, but none of them are running particularly well right now and I suspect they'd be reined it and beaten as they have in their recent outings, so I'm sticking with the form guide and taking (2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos and (12) Desert Dream here.

Leg 6 : 7.30 Chelmsford, a 16-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ selling handicap over 1m2f...

Clear Justice looks the pick on seasonal form, having won twice at Brighton over 1m and 1m2f in June/July and was only beaten by a head there over 1m2f last time out, some 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse. Milvus would be of interest if turned back out just two days after racing at Bath, where the heavy ground didn't seem to suit him. Prior to that run, he had finished third in back to back races at Windsor over 1m and 1m2f on quicker ground and he also finished third on his last standard to slow polytrack run.

The Instant Expert picture looks pretty bleak, but does throw Semser's name into the ring...

...whilst the likes of Hurtle & Juan Cool Dude enter the equation based on their low draw and early pace...

Sadly neither of that pair are in great form, although Hurtle was a runner-up three starts ago, but I'm going to overlook him and take (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice and also (12) Milvus, who might well contest the lead here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Biniorella Bay, (2) Mythical Bird & (6) Protest

Leg 2: (1) Pfingstberg, (3) Grand Duchess Olga & (5) Dereham

Leg 3: (7) Brandywine Falls, (8) Matharu & (11) Telford

Leg 4: (1) Dancing Magic, (5) Stanage & (13) Jumeirah Sea

Leg 5:(2) Pinball Dream, (8) Nammos & (12) Desert Dream

Leg 6: (2) Semser, (4) Clear Justice & (12) Milvus

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A reminder that I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after this piece, I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October. Some of you might be glad of the break!

 



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Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Catterick, Kempton, Musselburgh & Nottingham.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Nottingham, where the going is said to be heavy for our six races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 2.00 Nottingham, a 4-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m½f...

Jowddah has been a runner-up on both starts so far and possibly bumped into a decent sort last time out in the shape of Sandtrap. She's down two classes here in a weaker-looking field and she's my most likely winner and backed up by some impressive trainer place stats...

That said, 2yo maidens don't always go to plan and Tattycoram showed signs of promise/ability on her Ascot debut four weeks ago on soft ground and would be the main danger here, I'd have thought.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 5f...

Eight run here, but the bookies think it's a three-horse race. They're not always right, but they probably are here. Veblen Good looks the one to beat based on his soft ground runner-up finish on debut and Karl Burke's horses make the frame more often than not on their second start.

After that it looks like a two-way battle between Nad Alshiba Snow and Think Of A Name for the runner-up spot and that's where bottom weight Nad Alshiba Snow was last time out for the second time in five outings. She has already raced at Group 3 and was also beaten by less than three lengths at Class 2, so should be in the mix once again.

Think Of A Name didn't seem suited by the Tapeta at Newcastle last time out, but ran enough to finish second on his previous (and only second) run at Newbury in July and should appreciate a return to turf and also a drop in trip. Safety first approach here, I'll take all three!

Leg 3 : 3.10 Nottingham, a 6-runner, Class 2, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Another trappy little contest here with only Lilly's Bet of the six looking like they might be out of their depth. Stirrup Cup sets the standard on recent results, having won a soft ground Class 5 Nursery at Carlisle, before a Class 2 runner-up finish at Ayr last time out and he's the only runner here not stepping up at least two classes.

Shazani was only denied by a short head in an other Class 2 heavy ground nursery at Hamilton two starts ago, attwepting to make all and getting caught on the line and the winner that day has won again since. Blewburton won on soft ground on his debut at Leicester in late-April before a couple of third place finishes on ground eventually too quick for him. He didn't stay 7f on his handicap debut last time out, but a drop in trio and a return to much softer ground could be the key here.

The going might not suit Rare Change here, as all seven career efforts have come on good or quicker ground and after a couple of promising third placed finishes on his first two handicap starts, seems to be regressing, whilst it's a similar situation for the going for Eighteencaratgold who hasn't managed to make the frame in four outings to date.

Instant Expert says to focus on the top half of the card...

...which allies with my own thoughts above, so again I'll go belt and braces with Shazani, Blewburton & Stirrup Cup here.

Leg 4 : 3.45 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Four Adaay won LTO on soft ground and has made the frame in four of her last seven, whilst Northern Spirit comes her on a three-race run reading 211, After going down by a neck at Newcastle, he has won at Southwell and was impressive landing an 18-runner handicap at York last time out. Fantasy Master completes a trio of LTO winners, coming here off the back of winning a 14-runner handicap at Doncaster, but he is up in trip today. Elsewhere, The Ridler was a good fifth in the Bronze Cup at Ayr last time out and had been placed in three of his previous four starts, Hierarchy has made the frame in his last two, Music Society has been the runner-up in each of his last two whilst bottom weight So Grateful has finished 323 in his last three, so plenty look like being in decent nick.

As with the previous race, the top of the card seem to tick more Instant Expert boxes than their rivals...

..and I'm definitely keen on the first two, Northern Spirit and Fantasy Master. As intimated above, you can then make a case for several of the remainder, with that excellent run at Ayr in my mind, I've a marginal preference for The Ridler, but I'm concerned that Four Adaay might upset my plans!

Leg 5 : 4.20 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...

Another tricky contest with several holding claims including It's All About You who is 242311 in his last six outings. He won't mind the heavy ground, having won on similar at Ffos Las over 2m last time out, so we shouldn't have any stamina concerns either.

Expressionless is 12712 in his last five, although he's not as proven on softer ground as the previous runner, he has won over course and distance. Clever Relation was third two starts ago, beaten by less than a length over today's trip and was the winner of a Class 3 seller last time out and my form shortlist also includes Knight Templar. he's the sole 3yo in the race, so gets a very useful 7lbs allowance and he comes here on a run reading 2211 from his last four on Turf, which has a soft ground win amongst it. He's 2 from 2 since moving from Sir Mark Prescott's yard and will be in the mix here, I'm sure.

Instant Expert throws Alpine Stroll's name into the hat, as he'll not mind the ground either...

When I initially looked at the race on Tuesday evening, the two I wanted to be with were It's All About You and Expressionless and now having looked closer at the recent form etc, I think Knights Templar might even beat the pair of them with the 7lbs allowance and the upturn in fortune from a change of yard. His new handler has a decent record of getting LTO winners back in the frame, albeit off a small sample size...

...Knights Templar gets chosen here too.

Leg 6 : 4.55 Nottingham, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

And we end with another 8-runner contest that the bookies and I both agree might well be a three-horse race. Elladonna is two from three and three from six. She is admittedly unproven/untried on soft (or worse) ground, but has won over course and distance and is in great form, as is Prometeo who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Kempton and Doncaster over similar trips. Again, he hasn't raced on anything softer than good to soft, but was a runner-up beaten by just a neck on his sole run under that going condition. He's the highest-rated runner in the race, but as a 3yo gets a 4lbs allowance here.

Amancio is the other 3yo in the contest, so also gets that 4lbs allowance and although he doesn't win as often as his connections/followers would like (just 1 from 16 so far), he has 10 top-three finishes from his last 14 outings, did win on soft ground at Haydock in April and has finished 2242 in his last four, going down by just half a length on soft ground last time out. Elsewhere, we should mention Ardabraccan who won here on soft ground back in April and had three runner-up finishes from her last five runs (25722) and possibly Giselles Defence, who has two wins and two silvers from his last five, was a soft ground winner at Pontefract in May and shows up pretty well on Instant Expert...

Giselles Defence also throws another spanner into the works by being one of those likely to race furthest forwards...

I was going with both Elladonna and Prometeo, but neither are proven on the going and I prefer Elladonna of those two. I'm still going with Amancio who ticks form, Instant Expert and pace boxes and I think I'm going to take a chance on Giselle's Defence at the expense of Prometeo and hope that call doesn't bite me on the backside later!

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Jowddah & (4) Tattycoram

Leg 2: (6) Think of A Name, (7) Veblen Good & (8) Nad Alshiba Snow

Leg 3: (1) Shazani, (2) Blewburton & (3) Stirrup Cup

Leg 4: (1) Northern Spirit, (2) Fantasy Master & (5) The Ridler

Leg 5: (2) It's All About You, (3) Expressionless & (9) Knights Templar

Leg 6: (1) Elladonna, (3) Giselle's Defence & (7) Amancio

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always,
Chris

PS A quick heads-up, I'm making my way back from Indonesia via Singapore from Friday morning onwards, so no column from me for Friday or Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. We don't do Sunday placepots, so after tomorrow's piece (Thursday), I'm not back with you until Monday 7th October.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Bath, Newcastle & Sedgefield.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And we're off to Scotland and some good ground for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.40 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

None of these come here in great form, but Yaaser and Gracious Leader did both win their penultimate races with the latter also third last time out. Both drop in class here and the fast-finisher Gracious Leader wears a first-time tongue tie on his debut for George Boughey, whose horses are running well right now. His horses also fare pretty well with 3lb claimer Tommie Jakes in the saddle and George has a good record with horses making their yard debut after a move...

Yaaser won here over course and distance on his penultimate run (the second run of his three races in three days here last month!), whilst Tele Red won this race last year off a mark a pound higher than today. He won six races back and has actually been running better than recent results might suggest. Elsewhere there's very little form to go off, although Detective did win four starts ago and Urban Sprawl has some useful jockey and trainer/jockey stats behind him for his run off a dangerous career-low mark...

Instant Expert also points to (2) Yaaser and (5) Tele Red...

...so I'll take both of them along with the afore-mentioned in-form yard debutant (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2 : 2.15 Ayr, a 4-runner, Class 5, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Despite being 0 from 4, Weissmuller is the obvious pick here. He has been in the first three home on two of his three UK starts and was 4th of 27 in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and is rated as highly as 92 by the assessor. However, third place won't be good enough for us here today, so I'll also take Blue Pinatubo as a backup. He showed good early pace on debut at Goodwood back in July and although he faded late on, this is an easier task down three classes.

Leg 3 : 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

A really open race here with Soowaih of immediate interest running off the same mark as when only denied by a neck at Hamilton eight days ago having been caught very late on. The drop back in trip should help him here too. Top weight Pol Roger is a former course and distance winner and although he was only 7th of 11 here over track/trip last time out, that was his first time that he had failed to make the frame after two wins, four runner-up finishes and a third place in seven runs and his C&D form reads 112227.

Spirit of Acklam also drops two classes here after a disappointing handicap debut at Newbury when last home of 13, but this 3yo had won his two previous outings, so it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that he'll resume where he left off at Ripon back in April when winning by three lengths over today's trip, whilst another who has been running well is Young Fire who is showing little sign of slowing down at the age of nine. He wasn't at this best on soft ground at Doncaster last time out, but won a 17-runner handicap at York on his previous run for a second win in four starts and has seven top-three finishes from his last ten outings.

Pol Roger and Young Fire catch the eye from Instant Expert...

...and with (1) Pol Roger also likely to set the pace from stall 1, I have to take him here...

I also want to take (5) Soowaih based on that last run and I've a marginal preference for (4) Young Fire over Spirit of Acklam, There's probably not much in it, but Young Fire will probably offer more value in the markets.

Leg 4 : 3.25 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

Wow, only six run but it looks super competitive. Jenni won over course and distance ten days ago just a week after being a runner-up at Musselburgh. She's only up 3lbs here, so remains of interest. Danzan ran a really good race to finish third of twenty-seven in the Bronze Cup here eleven days ago and he now drops two classes. Redarna won this race in both 2020 and 2021, Abduction is a 3-time course and distance winner and Red Mirage won five starts ago. Clasina is the only one yet to win a race and now she steps up in class, so I'd rule her out now.

I will take (4) Danzan and (5) Jenni on their recent runs and it's really a toss-up between the other three with (3) Red Mirage probably edging it on form.

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f...

In racecard order, (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield and (5) Alpine Sierra struck me as ones who might go well here, especially Sir Garfield whose last six handicap runs have seen him finish 122282 and he runs off the same mark as his C&D runner-up finish last time out and it is he and Alpine Sierra who make most sense here from an Instant Expert point of view...

Pace is often the key here over this track/trip...

...but in the absence of any real proven front-runners, I'm hoping that class will count, so I'm sticking to my original shortlist of (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra.

Leg 6 : 4.35 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

You could probably make a case for five or six of these. The 10yr old veteran Muscika has been a runner-up in each of his last two starts and Act Of Violence was also a runner-up a fortnight ago. Jonny Concrete has made the frame in four of his last seven and was only beaten by three lengths in the Bronze Cup here and now drops two classes. Rousing Encore isn't in the best of form right now, but has dropped to a dangerously low mark of 78 having last won off a mark of 85, whilst Moyola has two wins and three third placed finishes from his last seven runs and he was only 3.5 lengths off the winner in the Bronze Cup too, despite coming off a 10-week layoff. He's down in class and should improve for the run.

Instant Expert backs up the competitiveness of this race...

...whilst recent pace scores only rule Moyola out of the reckoning from my original shortlist...

I think I need to be with three of the top four of that graphic and I think it's going to be (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence ahead of the possibly unlucky Rousing Encore for the finale.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Yaaser, (5) Tele Red & (7) Gracious Leader

Leg 2: (1) Blue Pinatubo & (4) Weissmuller

Leg 3: (1) Pol Roger, (4) Young Fire & (5) Soowaih

Leg 4: (3) Red Mirage, (4) Danzan & (5) Jenni

Leg 5: (1) Novak, (2) Sir Garfield & (5) Alpine Sierra

Leg 6: (3) Muscika, (4) Jonny Concrete & (6) Act of Violence

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Windsor & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

So let's head for Wolverhampton for a crack at six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 : 4.15 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 5f...

Startling was a revelation in a first time hood last time out, winning here over course and distance nine days ago and needless to say the hood is in place once again. Deal Maker is the only other runner in the field to have won a race, as she scored over 5f at Southwell on debut. Pure Liberty was third behind Startling last time, beaten by a length and three quarters and should get closer now she's 5lbs better off. Top weight Dubai Magic drops two classes here for a handicap debut and also takes a drop in trip. Her yard does well here at Wolverhampton and jockey Clifford Lee has had a great year riding for this stable...

and I think I'll take (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty here.

Leg 2 : 4.50 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ novice stakes over 5f...

My initial shortlist here was All Ways Glamorous, Glowchester, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr. All Ways Glamorous has been knocking on the door of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three with ever decreasing margins of defeat and today could well be the day. Glowchester has also got closer to winning in each of last three runs, finishing 432 and also only went down by a neck last time out, so these two make the ticket.

Of the other three runners to have raced so far, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr have shown more than Gigastar. Of those two, the former has been off the track for almost four months, whilst Mockirr's yard have a good record at Wolverhampton and also do well with runners on their second outing...

...so I'm going with (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester here.

Leg 3 : 5.25 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

The 3yo filly Shamardia has been a winner and a runner-up (half a length down) in her last two starts and she's clearly the horse in form here, although course winner Coconut Bay scored at Catterick three starts ago too. Araifjan, Coast and Neptune Legend have all won over course and distance, but haven't really produced anything in their last three or four outings and to be honest, only four of the field have shown any consistency at all over the last couple of years on the A/W...

(3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay are the more obvious picks for me here and I think I'll also go with course and distance winner (5) Araifjan on his second run after a wind op.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Not the best race you'll ever see, but it certainly looks open/competitive with cases to be made for most of the field. War Chant, Hartswood and Cavalry Call all won last time out, which boosts their claims. Local Bay has won four of his last seven, Winterfair has been placed third in four of his last six whilst bottom weight Between Me And U has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

From a win perspective, Instant Expert is keenest on the three drawn lowest of all...

...whilst the pace in the race looks like coming from...

I definitely want to take Cavalry Call and War Chant here, leaving me with a choice between Winterfair and Between Me And U, I suppose. The latter is in better form, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace, so in a tricky one to assess, I'm with (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Nights Over Egypt won last time out and Kristal Klear won two starts ago, before stepping up in class and going down by just a head as a runner-up at Haydock earlier this month. She's back down in class and the winner from Haydock has since won again and have the horses placed fourth and fifth, so I'd expect Kristal Klear to go well here today. LTO winner Nights Over Egypt is one of only two course winners in the field (Top Button is the other, but looks hindered by being drawn 12 of 12).

Higher drawn runners have fared worse here over this track and trip when it comes to making the frame, so lower drawn horses with early pace have been the ones to look at, which suggests this trio might be in with a shout...

...further cementing the claims of Kristal Klear. I do still want to take Nights Over Egypt, as I think these two are far better than the rest who seem much of a muchness if truth be told. Dynamite Katie has been a runner-up in two of her last four, has the lowest draw possible, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace. She'd be a long shot to win, I'd reckon but I'm taking (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie here.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Swinging Eddie won at Catterick last time out but hasn't raced for almost ten weeks. That said, none of the others even made the frame and Swinging Eddie has 3 win and 2 further places from nine efforts over course/distance, making him one to watch. Lady Wingalong has also had a bit of a break (7 weeks), but with five placed finishes from her last six outings does arrive here in decent nick, as does Awaysmont with two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six. Carvalhal won four races ago and Gilt Edge has two wins and two places from her seven runs this year.

Instant Expert suggests that American Rose could be well suited by conditions here too and she did win on her last A/W start...

...but the draw seems to be against her and Gilt Edge...

...whilst the pace stats back up Swinging Eddie's claims and also suggest that Carvalhal might be difficult to rein in...

I've got to take (1) Swinging Eddie and (3) Lady Wingalong here based on form, but those pace stats also make (8) Carvalhal a live prospect from a middling draw.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester

Leg 3: (3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay & (5) Araifjan

Leg 4: (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U

Leg 5: (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie

Leg 6: (1) Swinging Eddie, (3) Lady Wingalong & (8) Carvalhal

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as ever!
Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24

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Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Haydock, Market Rasen, Newmarket and Ripon.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've chosen to cover the meeting at Ripon today, where the ground is going to be heavy for our six races, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 6f...

Leblon Girl outran her 22/1 odds to finish second of six on debut at Nottingham last month, beaten only by a 1/8 fav, whilst I'm Next was third of nine over 5f at Beverley after a 149-day lay-off.

Dothan was well fancied at Chester on debut, but was a bit green and didn't get going for a while. He seemed to have plenty in the tank late on, though, so he could go well here, as could Medinilla who ran better than 6th of 12 might suggest. She was denied a clear run and had to be switched out inside the final furlong, but did rally to stay on having lost ground. She drops in class here and her jockey is in good nick right now...

...whilst Leblon Girl's jockey has a good record here at Chester...

...and if she's quick away again like last time out, she might not be easy to catch this time.

Safety-first approach for the opener as (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl and (8) Medinilla will all be on my bet builder.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Ripon, a 6-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Blessed Star has been knocking on the door with three successive runner-up finishes and she now drops two classes, which might just be enough to get her off the mark. Law Degree was third last time out and has already won on soft ground. Captivate has shaped like needing further than 7f in her three average runs to date, which have 'earned' her a low opening mark of 73, whilst Greek Gift has won two of her last six and has a win and two places from her last four. She was disappointing on the A/W last time out and although second of eight on soft ground at Carlisle a moth ago, would probably want it quicker here.

I can't take all four mentioned from a 6-horse field, but don't want to crash and burn before the 3yo+ handicaps, so I'll semi-reluctantly omit Greek Gift and go with (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3 : 2.45 Ripon, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Our Absent Friends has a win and four places from his last six runs, Count D'Orsay has won two from five and has a 44% place strike rate on soft/heavy ground. High Opinion has been running consistently well for some time now, making the frame in 9 of his last 12, winning four times including here over course and distance last time out. Faro De San Juan and Another Baar both won four starts ago, but it's the first-named trio that set the standard on recent form, although Another Baar has gone well on soft/heavy ground and clearly likes it here at Ripon...

...and even if his best form is over 6f, I think he might be worth taking with the two LTO winners in the field, so that's (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar here

Leg 4 : 3.20 Ripon, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Baldomero was a fairly convincing Class 2 winner on soft ground a fortnight ago, making all to win by more than two lengths with the re-opposing Tacarib Bay back in sixth, some 5.5 lengths off the pace. Tacarib Bay is no mug, though, as he entered that race off the back of two narrow runner-up defeats in this grade, which suggest he could go well here too.

Secret Guest has made the frame in four of his last five, including a good third of eighteen in the Great St Wilfrid over this course and distance last time out and based on consistency it would be foolish to write the 10yr old Dakota Gold off. His last two runs haven't been he best, but he won over 6f on soft ground at Redcar in late-May and followed that up by being second over this course and distance and Instant Expert shows his ability to make the frame under today's conditions...

...and as he also heads the pace chart...

...he's hard to ignore, so I'll be taking him with Baldomero and I just need to choose between Secret Guest and Tacarib Bay and I think on recent form, I've a slight leaning toward the former, giving me (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

My initial shortlist here was Run This Way, Music Society, White Umbrella and Hurstwood. Run This Way landed a hat-trick of wins in the summer including two over course and distance and was only narrowly beaten on heavy ground at Carlisle last time out and drops down a class here as does Music Society, who despite finding wins hard to come by of late was only beaten by a head at Ayr nine days ago, so could be in the mix again here.

White Umbrella also drops in class and has ran better in her last two races than 6th of 9 and then 6th of 11 might suggest. She was beaten by just over two lengths at Hamilton earlier this month and then by less than two lengths at Chester last time out despite being drawn 11 of 11, hardly ideal! Hurstwood doesn't drop in class, but does come here off the back of a win at Redcar and he has made the frame in three of his last six outings.

From the win stats on Instant Expert, Run This Way is the clear standout with Hurstwood probably next best...

...whilst Run This Way is also the pick on pace...

...and as I'm not convinced that Music Society will go well twice in a row (LTO was his first placed finish in 16 starts), I'm going with (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood here.

Leg 6 : 4.40 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

This looks effectively like a two-horse race between former course and distance winner Thornaby Pearl, who was only beaten by three quarters of a length on heavy ground at Chester last time out and Hamilton runner-up Havana Pursuit, who looks the pick of the Tim Easterby-trained trio in this contest.

Both of these runners are below their last winning mark and I'd be surprised if they did provide us with a winner and a placer today. Elsewhere Stormy Pearl has a good place record under today's conditions according to Instant Expert...

...whilst LTO runner-up and botoom weight Mr Trevor has a shout based on his fondness for front-running...

...and although ignoring his early pace might bite me on the backside, I'm going with (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl & (8) Medinilla

Leg 2: (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3: (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar

Leg 4: (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5: (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood

Leg 6: (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Friday 27/09/24

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Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Haydock, Newmarket, Wolverhampton & Worcester.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at HQ once again, where the Rowley course is said to be soft for our races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 1.50 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m...

Doom started the season with three placed efforts at Gr 2/3, but seems to have lost her way lately finishing last of nine and sixth of seven. This is a slight drop in class, but others arrive here in better nick. Sirona also started her season with a pair of Gr 3 placed finishes going sown by no more than a length each time, but after finishing 5th of 7 in a Gr 1 race here at Newmarket, was only 6th of 8 at Ascot last time out.

Spiritual was a Listed class runner-up at York in mid-May and then a winner at Sandown seven weeks later where she made all, but couldn't repeat the feat last time out when upped to Gr 3, finishing 4th of 9. Arisiag's best effort to date is a narrow Class 3 handicap win at Goodwood three starts ago and whilst she's probably going to be a decent handicapper, she might be out of her depth here.

Fair Point looks progressive and after finishing in the first three home in all seven career starts (2 wins), she comes here off the back of a Class 2 handicap win at Ascot where she made all on soft ground. Yes, she's up in class here, but could well be suited to the task. Rolica won a Class 2 maiden here over 7f and was then thrown straight into the 1000 Guineas over this course and distance in early-May, where she wasn't disgraced going down by three lengths as 6th of 18, but couldn't replicate that effort next/last time out when a Gr 3 5th of 9 at Sandown, a place and two lengths behind Spiritual, although she's 3lbs better off here.

Sirona, Spiritual and Fair Point have all won on soft ground, Spiritual has a Class 1 turf win, Rolica has won on this track, whilst Spiritual, Arsaig and Fair Point are all one-mile winners on the Flat, whilst place form looks like this...

Arsaig is probably the one I'm least keen on here, but you could make a case for any of the other five. However, after looking at the pace data and seeing that front-runners fare best, this...

...leads me to picking (3) Spiritual and (5) Fair Point

Leg 2 : 2.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner, 3yo+ fillies and mares Group 3 contest over 1m4f...

Mistral Star has won three of her last seven, including a 1m4f Listed success on the July course here two starts ago and this should represent a slightly easier task than her last race, when 4th of 8 in the Gr 1 Yorkshire Oaks. Time Lock actually won this race last year, but hasn't reproduced the same form in four subsequent races at Gr1 & Gr 2, but the ability to win this is certainly there.

Elsewhere Sea of Roses won a soft ground Listed race last time out, Divian Grace won a Listed race on the July course here two starts ago and the unexposed 3yo Place of Safety was second in the same race, a length and a quarter behind Divina Grace, but remains open to improvement.

Sea of Roses has won two of four on soft ground, but her 1 from 10 record at Class 1 is a worry, mind you Time Lock is also 1 from 10 at Class 1, but has won twice here at Newmarket and twice over this trip, as has Mistral Star, whilst the place stats suggest the top half of the card is the place to be...

(2) Mistral Star is the horse I'd back here if I was looking to find the winner, so she goes on the ticket and from that graphic above, I have to take last year's winner (4) Time Lock who is now down in class with (1) Divina Grace the outsider option.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo fillies Group 2 race over 7f...

AP O'Brien sends both Bubbling and Ecstatic over for this one and I think I marginally prefer the former to the latter. Bubbling was denied a clear run at Leopardstown last time out, but was still 3rd home of 9 in that Listed race, beaten by less than a length. A clearer run here could be all that it takes for her to land this, although Formal looked very impressive when winning on soft ground at Leicester last time out. She looked strong, made all and had the race wrapped up with a furlong to go. She's up in class here, of course, but looks really progressive. Duty First is also of interest, having finished a Group 3 runner-up on soft ground at Goodwood last time out and as a confirmed front-runner is of obvious interest here.

Runners (1) Bubbling, (3) Duty First and (5) Formal for me here in a bid to cover most bases!

Leg 4 : 3.35 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over a mile...

Ice Max has won three of his last four including a soft ground Group 2 success at Goodwood over today's trip last time out, beating the re-opposing Poker Face by a length, although Poker Face is now 5lbs better off today, so he could reverse those placings today. Lead Artist is possibly the one to beat here. He has been in the first three home in all five career starts to date, won a Group 3 race two races ago and was a Gr 2 runner-up behind the experienced Kinross at Doncaster last time out.

Of this three-runner shortlist, Instant Expert suggests that Poker Face might be the weakest of the trio under today's conditions...

...and with him being closely matched with Ice Max, I'll side with the latter and take (3) Ice Max along with (5) Lead Artist here

Leg 5 : 4.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 7f...

Seven of the thirteen have yet to race and of the six who have, Seaplane sets the standard with a pair of runner-up finishes, the most recent by just a neck in a higher grade at Ascot with the re-opposing Frankini a length and a half further back on his debut and with Frankini's yard having a 43.2% place strike rate with runners making their second start, he's of interest here...

Archivist was also a runner-up last time out, beaten by a length and a half at Leicester after a slow start and if he gets going a little quicker here, should also be in the mix. Of the debutants, William Buick has chosen Secret Theory over Music of Time from the Appleby-trained Godolphin pair, so that might be a pointer here too.

And in a safety first approach to a field of unknown quantities, I'll take all four from my shortlist ie (1) Archivist, (5) Frankini, (10) Seaplane and (11) Secret Theory

Leg 6 : 4.45 Newmarket, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m4f...

Military Academy is 2 from 2 and Lucentio has won his last three, but this Gosden-trained pair are both significantly up in class today, although they do both get weight all round from their rivals. Quietness has five wins and a runner-up finish from her last six.

Ziggy's run of eight top-three finishes (2 wins) was ended when he was 13th of 20, beaten by 7.5 lengths in the Ebor last month, whilst stamina shouldn't be an issue for Epic Poet who won the Old Borough Cup at Haydock over 1m6f last time out, staying on well and was 4th in the Ebor over the same trip on his penultimate run. Bigger fields don't faze him either.

My shortlist is completed by Aimeric, who landed a pair of Class 2 handicaps 252 days apart in September '23 and May '24 before a four-race run at Class 1 and whilst not winning any, has run his race each time as a runner-up in back to back Listed races beaten by 2.75 lengths and then by a neck. He was beaten by just over three lengths in a Group 3 race at Goodwood before going down by less than half a length to Sea of Roses (runs in the 2.25 here) in a soft ground Windsor Listed race last time out. An unlikely winner here, but definitely in contention for the frame.

Of this half dozen, only Lucentio has won on soft ground, whilst Aimeric is 4 from 8 at the trip and Quietness is 3 from 3.

Our pace/draw heatmap suggests that the winners comes from (4) Epic Poet and (9) Military Academy...

...so I'll take both of them along with a longer-priced runner in the shape of  (7) Quietness from the place heatmap...

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 3 & 5

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 4

Leg 3: horses 1, 3 & 5

Leg 4: horses 3 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 5, 10 & 11

Leg 6: horses 4, 7 & 9

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Thursday 26/09/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Newmarket, Perth, Pontefract and Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and I think we'll head to HQ, where the going is expected to be predominantly good for...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, an 8-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m

Not the easiest start to a placepot with seven of the eight on debut! Seacruiser is thew only one with a run under his belt, having finished 5th of 10 in a Class 2 maiden at Goodwood just over three weeks ago. He was beaten by 4.5 lengths that day after being sent off as the 5/2 fav. He should find this easier today, having had that experience and he also drops two classes. The two horses immediately in front of him have both won next time out, so that's a good sign.

Of ther debutants, Naval Command is a half-brother to St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov and has already got a Group 1 entry for the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster in October, so his team must think he has something and with William Buick riding him over stablemate Present Times, you could assume Naval Command is the Appleby first-string?

That said, due to bloodlines, you can never safely rule out Goldolphin 2 yr olds on debut, so Present Times is still in the reckoning, despite Mr Buick choosing Naval Command (James Doyle is no mug in fairness), as is the Gosden trained Devil's Advocate.

I'd hate to crash & burn on leg 1, so it's a safety-first approach with runners (1) Devil's Advocate, (4) Naval Command, (5) Present Times and (6) Seascruiser taken for the ticket builder and I'm still worried!

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 1m

Another tricky inexperienced field to deal with here, as only Jack Andrea has raced in handicap company before and after only finishing fourth of six at Sandown recently, is now fitted with cheekpieces.

Celeborn and Louie the Legend are the only two with wins under their belt so far. The former took a while to settle on debut at Leicester back in June but once the penny dropped, he stayed on really well to win by 1.5 lengths. He was then gelded during a three month break and returned with a more than creditable third place at Salisbury a fortnight ago.

Louie The Legend has got progressively better in his three runs, finishing 4th of 8 (4.5 lengths down) over 7f at Newcastle on debut at the end of June and then 2nd of 12 (2L) at Chelmsford in early August, before winning at 7f maiden at Chepstow on his turf debut a month ago in a 15-runner field.

Elsewhere, Olympus Point looks reasonably well treated off a mark of just 78 despite making the frame in all three career starts and never beaten by far and the same could be said about Gap Year off a mark of 72. Three of his four starts have been at Class 2 and he drops two classes here having finished 2nd of 15, 3rd of 10 and 4th of 11 at that higher grade. Throw in a 4th of 15 at Class 3 and it could well be that he's better than the assessor thinks.

These four would be my shortlist here, but I don't want to take four from seven from each of the first two races. (1) Celeborn and (2) Olympus Point are definite picks for me based on the above and of the other two, I'll take (3) Louie The Legend, because he won LTO, but might be a longer price.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 6f

Another tight-looking race here, but one I should be more comfortable with all seven runners having raced at least five times and all having won at least once. That said, none of them even made the frame last time out, which os a negative, as are the 139 day and 209 day layoffs for Geologist and Kinta.

Bottom weight Dance and Romance has two wins and two places from her five career starts, whilst Funny Story has seven top-three finishes from her last eleven starts. Seven of her last eight runs have been in Listed company and with a string of results reading 2712234, you'd have to think she could be a bit better than Class 2?

If I'm against Geologist and Kinta (even if Kinta did win this last year) due to their lay-offs, then Instant Expert suggests that Executive Decision is the most vulnerable of the remaining five contenders...

Of the four still under consideration, recent form is against both Pinafore and Sophia's Starlight, so I'll just take (1) Funny Story and (7) Dance and Romance (who might try to make all here) from this one.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo, Group 3 contest over 7f

Diego Ventura is two from two so far, both over 6f, but doing his best work late on which suggests the step up to 7f will suit him. Huscal has won each of his last, also both staying on over 6f, but the step up from Class 4 company is huge.

Monumental was a runner-up over 6f and a winner over 7f in Ireland recently before a UK debut saw him finish second on the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster less than a fortnight ago, beaten by just half a length (behind Bay City Roller) and the strength of that run alone makes him the one to beat here

In a similar vein, Symbol of Honour was a clear winner of a Class 4 maiden in mid-May before going down by less than a length in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot a month later. He then took three months off before returning to action as a Listed class runner-up beaten by half a length at Doncaster a fortnight ago. The re-opposing The Waco Kid was third on that race a further 0.75 lengths back and whilst the latter is a contender here too, he'd have to improve more to be ahead of Symbol of Honour, but he makes my 5-runner shortlist.

Of the five, Huscal steps up three classes and The Waco Kid is held by Symbol of Honour, so I'll omit those two to take (3) Diego Ventura, (5) Monumental and (6) Symbol of Honour here.

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 2m

In racecard order, I suspect that this might well be a four-horse race between Harbour Wind, Al Nayyir, Night Sparkle and bottom-weight Fighter which would also represent the views of the handicapper. I know it's not a handicap, of course, but if it were, then Al Nayyir would be well in at the weights along with Fighter.

Harbour Wind's half length defeat as a runner-up on his second outing is his sole defeat in five starts and he comes here off the back of Listed class wins at both Leopardstown and Limerick, but he does concede weight all round today.

Al Nayyir was last seen pushing Irish St Leger runner-up Vauban all the way to the line in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup at York five weeks ago, going down by just a short head, matching his result in March's Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan and those runs make him the one to beat here on form.

Night Sparkle has won three and been runner-up in four of her last ten on the Flat, but is winless in seven and with her 2024 form reading 272242, she screams 'consistent, but not quite good enough to win' She was 4th in the Lonsdale (above) a further two places and four lengths behind Al Nayyir and although 2lbs better off here and Group 2 runner-up LTO, I still don't see her beating Al Nayyir, but she might get closer than their last meeting.

As for Fighter, this Frankel colt is a bit of an unknown in the UK, he's getting weight all round and has won both his last two starts (Curragh & Leopardstown), but is now asked for three furlongs more than he's ever raced. That's a tough ask, but he's by Frankel and represents the O'Brien/Moore combo, so you never know.

Instant Expert suggest all four might go well here, as could Samui...

And unusually over a 2m trip, front-running has been beneficial here at Newmarket, albeit off a small sample size of races, which could benefit Fighter more than the others...

Overall, I see (2) Al Nayyir battling with (6) Night Sparkle for the win and whilst I like the breeding and the Trainer/Jockey combo behind Fighter, I think this is a big step up in both class and trip, so I'll take the ultra-consistent (1) Harbour Wind to complete my picks for this race.

Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

Baltic is 5 from 5 in handicap company and that has elevated his mark by some 24lbs, but he remains the one to beat here, especially with his yard's record with LTO winners...

Candyman Stan has improved with each run and made all to romp home by nine lengths at Lingfield recently and an opening mark of 80 doesn't look too punitive. Fighter Command drops in class here after a win and three places from his five starts, whilst Woner Kid has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four and drops two classes here.

Elsewhere Macari has made the frame in his last two, but as a 4yo is 7lbs 'wrong' here with most of the field being 3 yr olds. Instant Expert leans towards the top of the card too...

..as do the pace scores...

I'd definitely want to take (1) Baltic and (4) Candyman Stan here and it's a bit of a toss-up for the final pick and although I do like the look of Fighter Command, I think (2) Wonder Kid might be better than his last result suggests.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 4 , 5 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 3: horses 1 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 5 & 6

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Tix Picks, Tuesday 24/09/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Beverley, Fontwell, Newcastle & Warwick...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot of the day is at Newcastle, where the going is said to be standard on the tapeta for...

Leg 1 : 4.10 Newcastle, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4½f...

Sycamore Gap has made the frame in each of his last three, narrowly failing by a neck over course and distance a week ago. Today's jockey takes 5lbs off an unchanged mark, so this could be the day he finally gets off the mark. Trailblazer was a winner three starts ago, albeit over hurdles but that's the only win any of this field has mustered in a combined 77 starts and his own course and distance form reads 3326, so he could go well again down in class and off a low mark.

Albert Lasker was a runner-up two starts ago over 1m4f at Catterick and is 1lb lower here, whilst bottom-weight Strike Rate was third over this trip at Musselburgh 10 days ago.

Sycamore Gap's team have a good record when turning horses back out within a week of their last run, too...

...whilst a fairly sad-looking Instant Expert graphic confirms the selection of runners (1) Sycamore Gap & (3) Trailblazer...

Leg 2 : 4.45 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

None of these managed to win last time out |(six of them have never won!), but 25-race maiden Fiftyshadesaresdev got to within three quarters of a length from finally winning a race when runner-up here over course and distance a week ago with the re-opposing Vintage Love a further two places and half a length back, but Vintage Love is better off at the weights today and despite also being a maiden after 15 starts has also been getting closer, finishing fourth in three of her last four.

In truth, it's a pretty poor race and one that top-weight Masque of Anarchy should be winning relatively comfortably. He's 2 from 6 here at Newcastle plus a place, he has made the frame 8 times from 17 over this trip (winning 5 times) and his form over course and distance reads 12160. These are probably the three to focus on, but Bellslea might go better in first-time cheekpieces and Three Platoon has made the frame in 5 of 14 A/W starts.

Bellslea will also probably provide the early pace, which might help him 'nick' a place from the front...

...whilst from a stats perspective, Vintage Love's yard are in good recent form and have a decent record turning horses back out quickly...

...so I'll take (6) Vintage Love as my next best to (1) Masque of Anarchy with the outsider (5) Bellslea added in case he sets the pace and the race falls apart behind him.

Leg 3 : 5.20 Newcastle, a 6-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

The form guide points to the improving Mr Fantastic who kicked off with a Class 4 third, then a Class 3 second before another runner-up finish but at Class 2 earlier this month. Down three classes today, he should be tough to beat, although Boston Run was a runner-up in each of his first two starts and despite only finishing 4th of 12 at Haydock next/last time out, he was only a couple of lengths down at the pole. Kirkdale was three quarters of a length further back that day and he has since finished second of seven at Musselburgh, so that bodes well for (1) Boston Run, who I'll take along with (2) Mr Fantastic here.

Leg 4 : 5.55 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden fillies stakes over 7f...

Harswell Ruby and Titian Blue both made the frame on debut but both finished sixth next/last time out, whilst Orange Sky's sole run to date saw her finish second of eleven at Newbury and although beaten by four lengths, she was 4.5 lengths clear of the third placed horse in a strung out field. Suhub (4th) was 6.25 lengths behind her, but has since finished second herself at Newmarket, so with a drop in class here (5) Orange Sky would be my first pick.

Next best, based on debut runs would be either of the afore-mentioned Titian Blue or Harswell Ruby who both finished sixth last time out. The former drops one class here, but hasn't raced for nearly four months, whilst the latter drops three classes and should be more race-ready, so (3) Harswell Ruby finds her way onto my Tix ticket builder but in the interest of caution in a trick race to call, I'll hedge my bets and take (8) Titian Blue too!

Leg 5 : 6.30 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 6f...

Only Monticristo Boy (twice from seven, Stat Goddess (once from ten) and Ashen Glow (once from seven) have ever made the frame with Montecristo finishing second and third in his last two outings. he wasn't sharp/quick enough over 5f at Musselburgh last time out, but the step back up to 6f and the return to Tapeta makes him the most likely here.

He was second of eleven at Southwell on that last 6f tapeta run with the re-opposing Indy's Angel less than half a length further back on her handicap debut, so she could be close to my pick yet again here.

Elsewhere, Ashen Glow represents the formidable A/W partnership of Watson & Doyle and the yard is in good nick right now and has a more than decent record at this venue...

...and with (6) Ashen Glow looking like providing the pace here...

...I have to take her along with the other pair, (3) Monticristo Boy and (5) Indys Angel

Leg 6 : 7.00 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Jockey Hollie Doyle is in really good form right now, making the frame in 23 of her 52 rides over the last fortnight and her record on horses trained by Liam Bailey reads 155341 and they team up here with Doomsday, who didn't quite manage to make all over a mile at Musselburgh ten days ago. He did hold on for second, beaten by a neck and should go well again dropped back to 7f, especially having made all win at this trip also at Musselburgh at the start of August.

(4) Doomsday is a clear pick for me on the ticket, but the rest of the field look quite evenly matched, but top-weight Smalleytime is now a pound lower than when winning over course and distance back in April and Drakeholes is only 2lbs higher than his own March C&D success.

Miss Willows was a 7f winner at Catterick three starts ago, whilst Alice's Impact makes an A/W debut after a win and two runner-up finishes from her last four on Turf and is only 2lbs higher than that win.

On the win aspect of Instant Expert, all bar two runners have a full line of red...

...and the same applies with the place stats...

...whilst Doomsday provides the pace...

...cementing (1) Smalleytime, (2) Drakeholes and (4) Doomsday as my picks here

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 3

Leg 2: horses 1, 5 & 6

Leg 3: horses 1 & 2

Leg 4: horses 3, 5 & 8

Leg 5: horses 3, 5 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

PS A quick reminder, I'm currently on a small island off the coast of Bali and tomorrow, I need to get over to the ferry port, sail back to Bali and then get to my next hotel on the main island, so I won't be doing a piece for Wednesday's racing, sorry!



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Tix Picks, Monday 23/09/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Sedgefield & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Wolverhampton, but it's a dreadful looking card, so we're heading North to Hamilton Park for six races on good to soft ground, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.48 Hamilton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Rebecca's Girl is the clear 'form' horse here, finishing 2123 in her last four, but Temper Trap was a runner-up last time out, Absolute Dream has a win and a runner-up finish from his last five starts and has won both his last two races here at Hamilton whilst Retirement Beckons is a 4-time course and distance winner.

Instant Expert also says Rebecca's Girl is the one to beat...

...and although there's not a great deal of pace in the field, she's one of the more likely prominent runners on a track that favours leaders, as is Temper Trap...

So, I'll be taking Rebecca's Girl & Temper trap, of course, but also adding CD specialist Retirement Beckons, just in case!

Leg 2 : 2.23 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 6f...

It'll probably pay to focus on the bottom half of the card here (all fillies), even if Misty Sky, Thecla and Koulikoro all step up in class after being in the frame last time out. Bottom weight Koulikoro was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in an 11-runner race after the winner had nicked an early lead, but our filly stayed on well and there should be more to come. She's a half-sister to a few winners and she'd be my pick here.

Next best would be Thecla, whose runner-up finish on her second/last outing earlier this month was much better than her debut and further progression should/could see her get even closer to breaking her duck today, whilst Misty Sky is another who seems to be improving. She refused to race on 'debut' at Pontefract in June, but was then 5th of 8 (4.5 lengths defeat) when she finally did run at Chester, but was 3rd of 8, beaten by just over a length and a half at Chepstow last time out, so so she still have more to show.

I'll take all three here.

Leg 3 : 2.58 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f...

The Dragon King had won two on the bounce before a Class 2 defeat (6th of 16, 4L down) at Goodwood last time out and is of obvious interest back down two classes and back to his favoured 5f trip. Invincible Annice was slow away over 5f at Chester on her last run effectively losing the race before it started for her, but she had won over course and distance here one her previous run, whilst Music History won three starts ago and drops three classes here after only losing by 2.5 lengths in a Listed race at Newbury and it's worth noting that jockey Callum Rodriguez is flying right now, especially on Edward Bethell's horses...

Off very limited data, of course, Instant Expert also points to The Dragon King & Invincible Annice...

...but Call Me Harswell has a good to soft ground win, has won twice over today's trip and looks like he might try to nick this from the front...

The Dragon King & Invincible Annice are my obvious focus here, but Call Me Harswell edges Music History for third for me, due to the pace aspect and she ran pretty well in defeat at Thirsk last time out.

Leg 4 : 3.33 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

A really open-looking contest here with cases to made for all of them potentially. Papagei comes here seeking a hat-trick, gets a 7lbs weight allowance anad has won three of his last six (plus finishing third twice). Tafsir has also won won three of six with a third place finish in there too. She's one of three runners trained by Jim Goldie in this race, but Paul Mulrennan rides Tafsir with the other two (Soowaih & Spanish Hustle) being ridden by claimers, suggesting Tafsir is the yard's first pick.

The consistent Minstrel Knight might not win often enough, but is 333212 in his last six, represents the Bethell/Rodriguez combo from the previous race and gets the same 7lbs allowance as Papagei, effectively making him bottom weight here.

Tafsir's credentials are further enhanced by Instant Expert with Spectacular Style & Spanish Hustle also making their own claims here

...and this pair are likely to be up with the pace early on...

I'm definitely taking Papagei and Tafsir, but need a safety net from Spectacular Style, Spanish Hustle or Minstrel Knight and I think that with Roger Varian having such a great record here at Hamilton...

...Spectacular Style will be the one I choose.

Leg 5 : 4.08 Hamilton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Keldeo won last time out and has made the frame in five of her last eight starts, winning twice. Lady Celia is a course and distance winner who has won two of her last five, finishing fourth in the other three, but all in big-fields and not beaten by far. Strong Johnson has made the frame in three of his last four and drops in class here, whilst bottom-weight Stash The Cash produced his best run to date when beaten by a neck as a runner-up last time out.

There's no obvious front-runner here, but based on their recent efforts, Keldeo, Strong Johnson and Stash The Cash might be the ones to take it on...

I'm happy to pick from the four horses I've named here and I'm firm on the two females in the race, Keldeo & Lady Celia, so will need to choose between Strong Johnson & Stash The Cash if I'm taking a third pick and based on class movements after defeats, I'm taking class-dropper Strong Johnson rather than class-riser Stash The Cash.

Leg 6 : 4.43 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...

Game Breaker won last time out, getting home by a neck over course and distance on heavy ground almost three weeks ago, whilst fast-finishing Showhound produced his best run for over a year at Chester (3rd of 11, half a length down) in first-time cheekpieces which are retained here. Wichahpi has finished 1231 in her last four efforts on Turf whilst Gundogan (another from the Bethell/Rodriguez combo mentioned earlier) has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last seven races.

These are the four that I'd probably want to focus on here and of these, Wichahpi looks like the one who might try to dictate the way the race is run...

...whilst from a stats perspective, Game Breaker leads the way...

And if we're still in the mix after five races, I want to take a safety-first approach and will take all four runners mentioned.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 5 & 7

Leg 2: horses 4, 5 & 6

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 5

Leg 4: horses 2, 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 6: horses 2, 3, 4 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

PS A heads up, I'm currently on a small island off the coast of Bali and on Wednesday, I need to get over to the ferry port, sail back to Bali and then get to my next hotel on the main island, so I won't be doing a piece for Wednesday's racing, sorry!



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Tix Picks, Saturday 21/09/24

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Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chester, Newbury, Newmarket & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I think we'll head to the Rowley at HQ where the ground is expected to be good (firmer in places) for our six races today, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo fillies novice stakes...

Of the four with racecourse experience, Fool Again and Sea To Sky are ther obvious picks after runner-up finishes on debut three weeks ago. Sea To Sky was second to Flight, whose career form reads 2213 after she subsequently finished third in a Group 2 race.

Sea To Sky also drops two classes here and with her yard in such great form right now...

...she'd be my main pick here, but I'd also take Fool Again on the back of her run at Beverely. She was slow away but soon got the hang of things, gave chase, stayed on and ended up a runner-up beaten by just half a length. Maywedance was 3 places and 7 lengths further back and she has gone on to make the frame since.

Of those making their debut today, Pearl Of Hope would be the one for me. She's a half-sister to a Group 1 winner and there's a stack of stats to suggest she might go well here...

I'll take runners 2, 6 & 7 here.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over a mile...

You could make a case for several of these in an open-looking race. Reach looked like she needed the run at York last time out, but had three wins and two places from her previous six outings and she's down two classes here. Surveyor has two wins and two runner-up finishes (inc LTO) from her last six, has already won over today's trip and also drops in class. Get Jiggy With It is another class-dropping LTO runner-up and she has made the frame in ten of her twelve career starts and overall I suspect we'll be making our selection from the top half of this graphic...

...and on the basis of this, I'll stick with my in-form class droppers Reach, Surveyor & Get Jiggy With It, aka runners 1, 4 & 11 with Sea Regal the obvious danger.

Leg 3 : 2.45 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

King of Charm won last time out, as did Kracking, whilst Musical Mystery and Bell Shot were runners-up and Kodiac Thriller finished third and on form, they'd be my shortlist here. Of those, Kracking is stepping up two classes here, so that makes life more difficult for him, but he is 2121 in his last four and looks perfectly poised on the pace/draw heat map to make the frame chasing Bell Shot home perhaps?

...whilst Instant Expert for my shortlist looked like this...

All five are easily good enough to make the frame, but I need to make a decision and I'm going to side with Bell Shot, King Of Charm and Kodiac Thriller here, runners 4, 6 & 8. I did like Kracking too, but the two class rise and that IE graphic have tempered my enthusiasm a little, but he'll probably give it a right go up front.

Leg 4 : 3.20 Newmarket, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Regal Envoy was a runner-up last time out, whilst both Ingra Tor and Angel Shared finished third. Miss Show Off ran really well at Sandown three weeks ago and despite finishing 4th of 10 was within three quarters of a length of the winner and a nose behind the above-mentioned Ingra Tor despite not having raced for 14 months since winning at Newbury in July 2023. Equiano Springs won this race in both 2021 and 2022, but the 10 yr old is on a 9-race losing streak.

From a pace perspective, it has paid to race in advance of mid-field here over the straight six, which gives an advantage to Dashing Dick, Miss Show Off, Regal Envoy, Angel Shared, Jungle Land, Spring Bloom and Ingra Tor (just!)

...whilst Instant Expert points to the following...

On countback of positive mentions, the closely-matched pair of Ingra Tor and Miss Show Off feature most, so I'll take both of them here with Spring Bloom as a backup plan ie runners 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5 : 3.55 Newmarket, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 2m2f...

Bringbackmemories won last time out a week ago for a second win in three starts (but last home of 16 in between the wins!). Story Horse, Robert Johnson and Premiere Ligne were all runners-up with the latter finishing 31222 in his last five whilst both Diamond Bay and bottom-weight Yorkindness has finished 323 in her last three. Elsewhere Tactician has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings and as the sole 3yo in the race will get a more than handy 11lbs weight allowance.

All bar Story Horse of the above seem well suited to the task ahead according to Instant Expert with the addition of Trooper Bisdee...

..and as earlier, I could sit and make a case for all of these, but based on form/Instant Expert, I'm going to go with Bringbackmemories, Premiere Ligne & Tactician, numbers 4, 6 and 10 on your racecards.

And we close with Leg 6 : 4.30 Newmarket, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m2f...

Speriamo won two days ago in a race I covered and didn't pick her! Dubai Melody and Milliterries also won last time out. Ciara Pearl is 1223 in her last four, Chorus won two starts ago and Mrs Twig is two from four and three from six, but needs to bounce back from a couple of disappointing Class 3 outings, whilst Dayzee might need the run after 204 days off, although she does seem to have the ideal pace profile...

...along with Ciara Pearl who is the pick of the pack on Instant Expert...

...making her my first choice here and with both Chorus and Dubai Melody dropping down two classes and receiving 5lbs allowances as 3 yr olds, my picks here are runners 2, 4 & 5.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 2, 6 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1, 4 & 11

Leg 3: horses 4, 6 & 8

Leg 4: horses 2, 8 & 9

Leg 5: horses 4, 6 & 10

Leg 6: horses 2, 4 & 5

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Tix Picks, Friday 20/09/24

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Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Kempton, Newbury & Newton Abbot...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And as I've not tackled an NH placepot before lets head to Newton Abbot, where the going is expected to be good for...

Leg 1 : 2.10 Newton Abbot, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m6f

This looks like a race of two halves here with Tribal Glory, Authoceltic and Shakeyourtailfeather the trio to focus on, but the market is sure to reflect that.

Tribal Glory was a runner-up on debut in a Worcester bumper in July '23 before going one better at thew same venue six weeks later. He was then rested for a year before a first crack at hurdles, finishing second here at Newton Abbot over 2m2½f, beaten by less than a length, whilst staying on well. The step up in trip shouldn't be an issue for a former Irish PTP winner either, so he's the one to beat here for me.

Shakeyourtailfeather has a bit more experience over hurdles and has run well this year. She was 4th of 14 on hurdling debut at Taunton in January, before being brought down four out at Doncaster eight weeks later. She then finished runner-up at both Class 4 and Class 3 before finishing 6th of 12 at Kelso last time out. That wasn't a bad result ast two classes higher than today and she wasn't disgraced on that handicap debut. The two horses in front of her have both made the frame since and dropping down in class and returning to maiden company, she's a threat here.

These are the two I'm playing here.

Leg 2 : 2.40 Newton Abbot, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ mares novice hurdle over 2m1f

Kitty Foyle makes a hurdling debut after a Class 4 flat handicap win at Goodwood last month, whilst Hard As Nail's hurdle form reads 32123 after two wins and a place from four bumper outings, so she shouldn't be fazed by the task in hand.

A Little Something was third of nine on her bumper debut in July and Versace Twentyone has a win and a place from two bumpers ; both make a hurdling debut today, but it's a third crack for Pure Gold, after finishing 3rd of 12 at Uttoxeter in July and then 2nd of 9 at Worcester last month.

Asian Star also makes a hurdles debut here after two bumper outings, finishing 5th of 18 at Cheltenham in mid-April and then 3rd of 13 at Southwell three weeks later. She was sent off as the 4/5 favourite that day, but went down by 6.5 lengths to 10/1 shot Gale Mahler who has since won all five subsequent starts, including a Listed race at Galway last time out.

Fergal O'Brien runs two in the race (Hard As Nails & Leloopa) and his horses have gone well here over recent years...

..and it's Hard As Nails with the best 2yr place profile...

and with front-runners/prominent runners also doing well over the years here, Hard As Nails is my main pick here. I'm sure Kitty Foyle will be very popular after her Flat win last time out, but NH form prevails for me today and I'll also go with Asian Star and Pure Gold from this one.

Leg 3 : 3.15 Newton Abbot, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ novice chase over 2m5½f

A small field, but all four come here with a few wins under their belts. At the age of ten Glynn took a while to get used to fences after making the frame in four of nine starts over hurdles and won here at Newton Abbot over 2m5f and then over 2m6½f at Stratford just five days later off a 7lbs higher mark. He's up another 3lbs here, making life more difficult.

Riskinthefground struggled at 2m7f and beyond over fences, but has dropped back in trip slightly this year winning at distances ranging from 2m4f to 2m6f, finishing 11151 in five starts this year. The only defeat came in the Class 1 Summer Plate at Market Rasen, so no disgrace there and he could be the one to beat here.

Lallygag has been in great form over hurdles of late, finishing 32O11 in his last five starts and it is hoped that this recent form can be translated to fences, as he reverts back to the bigger obstacles for the first time since December 2023 when he was disappointing in both attempts.

Secret Trix makes a chasing debut after being in consistently good form over hurdles for nearly two years, finishing 133111221421P with wins as high as Class 2. If he can bring anything like kind of consistency to fences, he has a great chance here.

To be honest, I'm not sure how to split this quartet and I want to get through the race still with a live bet, so it's a cautious/coward's approach to take all four ahead of hopefully easier handicap races to analyse!

Leg 4 : 3.50 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

Electric Eddy is our sole LTO winner, but the fast finisher United Front, Therapist and Outback Frontiers all made the frame and I wouldn't be too surprised if one or more of these made the frame again today.

Therapist actually drops in class today, so that should make her more competitive and possibly the one to beat, although as shown above Fergal O'Brien's runners go well here, which is another tick for United Front on his second handicap run.

Instant Expert also throws the hats of Pak Army and Lady Gwen into the mix...

...whilst the pace data points towards Pak Army, United Front and Electric Eddy from those we've already highlighted.

And with Therapist being the one I thought might be the one to beat, I need to get rid of at least one of them and that's going to be Pak Army, based purely on his recent form not being as good as the others and the fact that his jockey has yet to win a race. So, it's United Front, Therapist & Electric Eddy for me.

Leg 5 : 4.25 Newton Abbot, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f

My initial thoughts were that this might boil down to the likes of Colonel Lesley, Karannelle, Addosh and possibly Juggernaut, but that's neither a definitive nor exhaustive list! None of the field won last time out, but course and distance winner Colonel Lesley was a runner-up for a sixth top three finish (inc 2 wins) from his last eight starts and fellow course and distance winner Karannelle is 1533 in his last four, finishing 133 here at Newton Abbot over trips of 2m1f to 2m3f, whilst he hails from a yard with a good record of making the frame at this track...

Instant Expert also steers us back to Colonel Lesley...

As with the race above (Div 1 of the same race), a prominent racing position would be ideal, but there's not actually a great deal of pace on offer here, as shown by the top three in the averages...

...but Juggernaut might be afforded an easy early lead which could be enough to keep them in the frame.

Karannelle, Juggernaut & Colonel Lesley it is, then!

Leg 6 : 4.55 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m6f

And we conclude with what should be on paper the best of the six races that features three LTO winners in the shape of Finisk River, Wonderful Eagle and Melton Mossy and all three are in the bottom half of the weights along with Clearance who has finished third in each of his last two starts, both on this track and he, like Finisk River, drops in class today.

Wonderful Eagle is the only runner to have won over course and distance and after wins on both A/W and Flat tracks, he returns to hurdling where he has two wins and a place from five starts, but he does seem to be playing second/third fiddle in Instant Expert, as both Finisk River and Clearance have eye-catching place stats...

...but Wonderful Eagle does seem well suited by the pace profile on a track where prominence has paid off...

...and I'm going to stick with the lower half of the card and take Finisk River, Clearance and Wonderful Eagle.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 6

Leg 2: horses 1, 3 & 10

Leg 3: horses 1, 2, 3 & 4

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 5: horses 5, 6 & 8

Leg 6: horses 5, 6 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Tix Picks, Thursday 19/09/24

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Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chelmsford, Pontefract and Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've not had any A/W action for a while, so let's head to Chelmsford, where the going on the Polytrack is (as usual) declared to be standard and our placepot races are...

Leg 1 : 4.20 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f

After the withdrawal of Laser Focus, The Bay Warrior now remains as the sole LTO winner in the field, although Silver Nightfall has made the frame in both of her last two starts, as has Platnum Prince and both of these LTO placers are down in class today, as are Speriamo, Lennys Spirit and Awtaad Prince.

The 11 yr old Stormingin might be coming towards the closing stages of his career, but has finished 124 in his last 3 runs on the A/W, includibng a win and a runner-up finish here over course and distance and his place record over the last two years is impressive...

...whilst most of the field also have some decent numbers behind them. Lenny's Spirit looks the weakest at 8lbs higher than his last win and a 0/6 record on standard going. Platinum Prince is interestingly 2lbs lower than his own last win and in stall 3, he seems well drawn according to the PRB3 scores, which also look good for Silver Nightfall and Stormingin...

That said, it's usually pace that wins the race here at Chelmsford, but this looks like it might well be a falsely run affair with little real pace early on, although Silver Nightfall might take it on, based on her last two runs..

I've struggled with race 1 these last few days and with the amateur jockeys also creating some uncertainty for me, I'm takjng three runners here; Silver Nightfall, Platinum Prince and Stormingin.

Leg 2 : 4.55 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f

Thisismydream has been in the first three home in seven of his twelve starts this year, winning twice. Hi Hoh Tonto was third last time out, whilst former course and distance winner Lion Ring was third two starts ago before winning last time out.

The Defiant won over course and distance back in March and comes back into focus here as he drops in class after three top-3 finishes in his last five outings and at 5lbs below that last win, he scores pretty well on Instant Expert...

...as do Spanish Angel and Agostino amongst others and from the above, I'm most interested in...

...whose pace scores are as follows...

...leaving me with four to pick from. I don't want to take four here if truth be told and Agostino will have to miss out on form. I hope that omission doesn't return to haunt me, but I'm taking Thisismydream, The Defiant & Lion Ring here.

Leg 3 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f

We highlighted Saint Riquier at Brighton two days ago where he failed to land his hat-trick and although he'll go off short again here, he might not be a clearcut selection today, as plenty of his rivals are running well too, especially Kinetic (2111 in her last four) and Standbackandlook (2113 in his last four) with both receiving an 8lb allowance here as 3 yr olds.

I think it has to be this trio vs the field and of these three, only Standbackandlook has raced over this trip, finishing third at Nottingham and winning twice at Wolverhampton, so Standbackandlook is definitely in for me here and from a value/last run perspective, I'll also take Kinetic over Saint Riquier.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

The fast finishing Q Twenty Boy's win here over 5f three starts (and five weeks) ago is the only win registered by any of this field in their last seven races, but Blue Collar Lad and Don't Fight It were both runners-up in their most recent outings. Q Twenty Boy is also a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year.

The pace chart favours these runners...

...with two of our more 'in-form runners' featured, whilst both Blue Collar Lad and Q Twenty Boy feature well on Instant Expert.

Blue Collar Lad is also drawn in the preferred lower half of the draw, so we're taking him along with possible outsiders Q Twenty Boy and Don't Fight It for a three-pronged attack for this one.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

My initial shortlist here on form was Doves of Peace (6 top-3 finishes from 8), Cut To The Chase (placed in each of her last two), whilst fast finisher Comedian Leader, Maverick Style and Irrelevant were also in the frame on their last run. Of these Maverick Style and Cut To The Chase are both 3 yr olds, so receive a 5lbs weight allowance, which could be more than handy.

Of those mentioned above, only Maverick Style has a lower half draw, although Comedian Leader is only in stall 7 of 12. Instant Expert suggests we focus upon these runners...

...which pretty much backs up where I'm at, so I just need to stick my neck out and make a selection, as any three from those seven could easily fill the frame today. Doves of Peace and Cut To The Chase look hard to ignore from Instant Expert, but I think I'll also take a chance on Back from Dubai. He's drawn low kin stall 1 and likes to race prominently, so he could be better than his odds might suggest.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

The second division of the above race has no LTO winners, but Twitch was a runner-up, as was Capallcliste for the second race in a row, whilst Tilsworth Max finished third. Both Twitch and Tilsworth Max were racing over course and distance when placed too.

Dashing Donkey is also of interest with a 3lb weight allowance; he has won two of his last four starts and although not ideally drawn in stall 11, looks like he might be the pace in the race...

and I think I'll take Dashing Donkey along with Twitch and Capallcliste.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 7 & 8

Leg 2: horses 1, 7 & 10

Leg 3: horses 6 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 8

Leg 5: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 2, 3 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Tix Picks, Wednesday 18/09/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Beverley, Kelso, Sandown & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...so let's head to Sandown, where the going is expected to be good to soft, but better in places on the round course for....

Leg 1 : 1.50 Sandown, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f

Harb won this race last year off a mark 3lbs higher than today and comes here off the back of a win, having scored over course and distance here less than three weeks ago, as did Secret Handsheikh nine days ago. Soul Seeker was third last time out but is winless in 12, whilst the consistent Media Guest has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last eight starts.

Harb looks the lost likely to succeed based on Instant Expert...

...but low drawn runners (Secret Handsheikh & Soul Seeker) appear to have the edge...

(2) Secret Handsheikh is the likely pacemaker here and I'll take him along with (5) Harb from this one.

Leg 2 : 2.20 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m

Three of the field have never raced before, Prince of The Seas and Wild Nature were both runners-up on debut with the other six runners failing to make the frame in nine combined starts. Even if all of them improve this time out, it's hard to see any of them dislodging Prince of The Seas and Wild Nature from the frame. Of the newcomers, Almeric would be of interest if the market got behind him, but for me it has to be (6) Prince of The Seas and (11) Wild Nature.

Leg 3 : 2.50 Sandown, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo novice stakes over 7f

Rock Doro was slowly away on debut at Chelmsford three weeks ago, but still managed to get going enough to finish second, three quarters of a length behind 4/9 fav Bay City Roller, whose next/latest outing was a win in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last weekend. I'm not say Rock Doro is that good, but any similar run to last time out should be more than enough here.

Of the others, Keble Spirit interests me. He's by Too Darn Hot and the Gosdens have a good record with debutants...

So, I'll take (4) Keble Spirit and (6) Rock Doro here.

Leg 4 : 3.23 Sandown, an 8-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m

This looks a wide-open affair and unusually for a Class1 race, none of the field come here off the back of a win, although Checkandchallenge and Imperial Quarter both finished third and Elnajmm had finished 222111 in his first six races before a 3.5 length defeat at York last time out was only good enough for 9th place in a competitive 18 runner handicap at York.

A higher draw would be preferred here, which would benefit Beshtani (in first time cheekpieces), Checkandchallenge and Cash...

with the pace/draw heat map backing this up and adding the consistent Elnajmm back into the mix...

From a stat perspective, Elnajmm might benefit from an excellent trainer/jockey partnership...

And based on the above, I think I need to take (5) Elnajmm forward, along with (3) Checkandchallenge, whilst (2) Cash is interesting. he's well drawn, won't have too much traffic to pass and if running like he did in Class 1 races last year, could well spring a surprise here, so I have to take him too!

Leg 5 : 3.55 Sandown, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m

Windcrack is likely to be popular after a course and distance win last time out, whilst Fleurir was a runner-up and won three starts ago. Own Accord was also a runner-up last time and has won two of her last five. Powdering was last home of 11 at Ascot on her last outing, but had finished 131114 in her previous six starts, so a return to form can't be discounted. Crystal Casque made the frame in two of her last three but has 2 wins and 5 further places from 12 runs here at Sandown and her recent place stats stack up well...

...whilst higher draws (Fleurir & Dreamrocker from above?)

...and frontrunning seem to be the order of the day

...ticking another box for Fleurir...

So, Instant Expert, pace and draw all point to (4) Fleurir, so she's a pick here. I like (3) Crystal Casque from Instant Expert and also due to her great record at this venue (a win & 4 places from 7 over C&D) and whilst I could make a case for a few of these, I don't want to go too deep, so I'll just take (6) Dreamrocker who ticks boxes on Instant Expert and the draw, plus she has a win and two places from her last four outings.

Leg 6 : 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m2f

Carnival Day is the only one to have won last time out, but plenty of these have some good recent results. High Point is two from three, LTO runner-up Salamanca Lad has three wins and two places from his last six, Miaswell has two wins and a place from four and the sole filly in the race, Niloufar has four wins and a runner-up finish from her last seven and is one to consider on form at what might be a big price.

Front runners have done well in similar past races here and that will be good news for the likes of High Point & Salamanca Lad...

...and Salamanca Lad's team love it here at Sandown...

...whilst Miaswell's jockey, Jason Watson is riding really well right now...

And I'm taking (1) High Point (pace/form), (2) Salamanca Lad (pace/form/stats) and (4) Miaswell (form/jockey) here for the finale.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 2 & 5

Leg 2: horses 6 & 11

Leg 3: horses 4 & 6

Leg 4: horses 2, 3 & 5

Leg 5: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Tix Picks, Tuesday 17/09/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Newcastle, Redcar & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And I think we'll head South to Brighton where the going is expected to be good for our six races starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.20 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

(2) Realised was third last time out, albeit almost 14 weeks ago, but he was the only runner here to make the frame on their last outing. (3) Bear To Dream has two wins and a play from his last five starts, making him the ‘form’ horse, whilst (1) Lochaber and (5) Thunderous Love both won five starts ago with the rest of the field now winless in seven or more. Thunderous Love now drops in class and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Card Stats : Harry Eustace (2-Realised) runners have made the frame here at Brighton in 5 of 10 over the last year and 13 of 23 over five years.

This could be a falsely run affair with no pronounced front-runner in the race...

...which would then favour/allow the 'better' runners to run their own race, although Lochaber, Another Jack, Realised and Bear To Dream have all set the pace once in their last four starts.Thunderous Love might struggle to land a blow from the back of the pack or I might have been interested.

Pretty unimaginative stuff from me here, as my 1-2-3 would be Bear To Dream, Realised & Lochaber. I only want to take two from this race, so I'll omit Realised in pursuit of a better price on Lochaber!

Selection :  (1) Lochaber & (3) Bear To Dream

Leg 2 : 2.50 Brighton, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f

I’m not going to beat about the bush here and I’d be very shocked if (2) Usuario Amigo didn’t bolt up here. He has made the frame twice at Class 4 and once at Class 3 (two starts ago) and he’d be my banker today.

Card Stats : Charlie Longsdon (3-Artemsia) runners have made the frame in 4 of 7 over the last fortnight and 7 of 14 over the past 30 days.

Selection :(2) Usuario Amigo

Leg 3 : 3.20 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f

Joint top-weight (1) Gallimimus is the sole LTO winner in the pack, but (5) Fighting Poet won his penultimate start and has made the frame in each of his last three. (2) Villalobos and (7) Clear Justice both finished 6th last time out, but have both won two of their last four, whilst bottom-weight (11) First Encounter has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three.

Card Stats : 11 of John Gallagher’s (1-Gallimimus) LTO winners have gone on to make the frame next time out. John O’ Shea (4-Letter of the Law) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

The place pace/draw heat map points to front runners literally leading the way here...

...which is much better news for the likes of Villalobos than it is for Fighting Poet...

...but the Poet is in good nick despite being a persistent back marker. Gallimimus has led in two of his last three, so I'm happy to take him too.

Selection : we'll take three here, (1) Gallimimus(2) Villalobos (5) Fighting Poet yet still be worried about (4) Letter Of The Law

Leg 4 : 3.50 Brighton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

(1) Saint Riquier comes here on a hat-trick, drops in class and is unpunished for 10-length stroll at Leicester a week ago. He was in the frame at Class 4 in early-August before those two Class 5 wins and it’s very difficult to see him not being in the first three home. Such is his apparent dominance here, there’s a chance that the other seven runners might all be double-digit odds, the interesting one of those might be the 8 yr old (6) Torbellino who was only caught very late on in a defeat here over course and distance last time out when collared by Fighting Poet. Fighting Poet runs in the 3.20 race, of course and that might indicate how Torbellino might run.

Card Stats : Sheena West (4-Gearing’s Point) has 7 placers from 9 runners turned back out within 7 days of their last run.

Saint Riquier will go off really short and is ideally placed on the pace/draw stats to win the race, never mind make the frame!

Selection (1) Saint Riquier

Leg 5 : 4.20 Brighton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m

The fast-finishing (1) Walefya was a runner-up beaten by a head over this trip on the Tapeta at Southwell last time out, just six days after winning here over course and distance, whilst (2) Romanovich has two wins and a place from his last four starting with a course and distance win here in early August and a win at Chepstow three weeks ago. Of the others, (3) Interestnpenalities is coming a bit of a nearly horse, having been a runner-up now in each of his last three starts, but did win over 7f at Wolverhampton on St George’s Day. (4) Sorontar & (5) Heers Sadie both finished third recently, but both look to have plenty to find against the other three above.

Card Stats : (1) Waleyfa’s yard have had 14 placers from their 28 runners over the last 30 days, John O’ Shea (2-Romanovich) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

I see a Waleyfa/Romanovich 1-2 here based on form/stats and they're going to head the market, which isn't good for pot building, but I can't see any of the others getting to them. Of those others, the unexposed (4) Sorontar might be the one to build upon a third place finish at Windsor last time out, but third might be as good as he gets here, which isn't helpful in a 7-runner field.

Selection (1) Waleyfa (2) Romanovich

Leg 6 : 4.50 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

(1) Otago won last time out, as did (10) Forgotten Treasure, who has two wins and place from his last five outings, but the runner bringing the best set of results to the table is hat-trick seeking (6) Split Elevens, whose last six results read 211311. Elsewhere former course and distance winners (3) Poetic Force and (4) Electric Avenue both drop in class. The former narrowly missed out on making the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst the latter is now only 1lb higher than that C&D win from mid-June.

Card Stats : William Knight (10-Forgotten Treasure) has four placers from five Brighton runners over the last year (three wins) and his LTO winners have made the frame in 28 of 45 races next time out, winning 14 (31.1%) of them.

Forgotten Treasure is also the pick of the pack from the win pace/draw heat map here...

...although those drawn highest are well suited too, whilst Instant Expert points us towards Otago, the out of form Amathus, Electric Avenue, Split Elevens and Forgotten Treasure...

 

I think I'm going to go fairly deep here in a bid to consolidate what we have, if we're still in the running.

Selection (1) Otago (3) Poetic Force (4) Electric Avenue (6) Spilt Elevens (10) Forgotten Treasure

Leg 1: horses 1 & 3

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1, 2 & 5

Leg 4:horse 1

Leg 5: horses 1 & 5

Leg 6: horses 1, 3, 4, 6 & 10

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Tix Picks, Monday 16/09/24

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Hope you all had a great weekend. I certainly enjoyed taking Sunday off, but we now go again, as Monday's placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Thirsk, Windsor & Worcester...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

From which, I've decided to tackle the first six races at Windsor, where the going is expected to be good to soft for these races...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

None of these won their last race, but Harrys Halo and Lahina Bay were both runners-up and the former has made the frame in four of his last six starts. The latter is a former course and distance winner, as are Punchbowl Flyer & Vape and it's Harrys Halo, Lahina Bay & Vape who score best on Instant Expert...

...whilst pace/draw...

...give Vape a huge chance here. My three horse shortlist here would then be (1) Harrys Halo, (6) Lahina Bay and (7) Vape. Lahina Bay looks worst off on pace and I don't want to take three runners here, so I'll leave her out. (5) Punchbowl Flyer is a danger too and might fit your perms if you're going deeper than I am!

Leg 2 : 2.07 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo Fillies Restricted Novice Stakes over 5f

The top four on the card are the ones with the experience and of the four (Amestris, Aviation Time, Seraphim Angel & OverSpiced), only Aviation Time is yet town over 5f, but she did finish third at both Class 2 and in a Listed race earlier this year and drops three classes here. Amestris actually drops four classes here after a three length defeat in a Listed race. Without diving too deeply into the race, I can see this contest quite possibly being a match between this pair and I’ll just a safety-first approach with (1) Amestris and (2) Aviation Time.

Leg 3 : 2.37 Windsor, a 14-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Novice Stakes over 1m

Thyer won last time out, but hasn’t raced since that win 54 weeks ago during which time he has moved yards. Noisy Jazz and Run Away both own on debut before finishing 6th next/last time out at higher grades than this.

None of the others have won a race, whilst Muhib and Tex are making debuts here. Breathless Spirit was a runner-up beaten by just half a length at Chelmsford and a similar run puts him in the mix here.

Stalls 5 to 8 seem to be the best place to run from here (Muhib, Breathless Spirit, Saved Lizzie, Tex)

...whilst Noisy Jazz has set the pace in each of her two starts to date and that could be fruitful here at Windsor...

So from all this, I prefer (4) Noisy Jazz of the three previous winners, as she is the only Class 4 winner in the field and she's likely to be upfront from an early point. Of those with experience, I'd take (9) Breathless Spirit based on his near miss at Chelmsford last month and the fact that he is drawn in that central 5-8 area and of those with little/no previous experience, (10) Muhib is an interesting sort. He's with one of the elite yards and they've bided their time with him, he's by Too Darn Hot out of Hameem, who won 4 of 13 herself and made the frame in 5 of her 9 defeats.

Leg 4 : 3.12 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m3½f

(2) Morcar was a winner here over 1m2f for a second win in four starts when last seen four weeks ago, but steps up in trip, is 7lbs higher today and would probably want quicker ground, but he remains of interest for a place. (1) Mighty Bandit and course winner (3) Fast Steps have both won relatively recently, whilst (5) The Whipmaster is a former course and distance winner, although that was 15 months ago and he’s 0 from 9 since and steps up in class here.

These four are likely to be racing front rank today, if their recent efforts are anything to go by…

…and I think that I'd be happy to stick with the top three on the card here.

Leg 5 : 3.42 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f

A tricky looking one to call here with form claims held by many. (1) Party Island has two wins two thirds from his last six, (2) Macari was a runner-up six days ago, course winner (6) New Kings Road has finished 123 in his last three, (10) Darysina Gold has finished 2212 in her last four and bottom weight (13) Idyllic is the only LTO winner in the field and has finished 2331 in her last four.

Idyllic is, however, up in class today, but both Party Island and New Kings Road drop down from Class 4, whilst from a status perspective, Macari’s claims are boosted by the fact that since 2009, trainer Sheena West is 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) with four further placers from runners in Windsor handicaps who are her only runner at the track that day.

Not usually my thing, but in such an open contest, I’m taking all five from the well!

Leg 6 : 4.12 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m

My initial thoughts here were that in card order, course and distance winner (2) Daisy Roots (121 in her last three), (5) Absolutely Buzzing (LTO winner) and (9) Judge Frank (also won LTO) would be amongst those favoured to do well, but I suspect they’ll also be the first three in the market, which isn’t ideal.

(11) Oriental Spirit and (12) Roman Spring were both runners-up last time, though and the former is noted as a fast finisher. Absolutely Buzzing and Judge Frank are two of five three year olds getting a 4lbs weight allowance.

Pace is often the key to going well here at Windsor and based on the field’s last four races, both Daisy Roots and Roman Spring appear in the first three…

...whilst Judge Frank is likely to race prominently too and he's very conveniently drawn in the central area that seems to do well over a mile here. If truth be told, it might be a bit of a stretch for either or both Roman Spring and/or Oriental Spirit to run two good races in a row, but they do look dangerous and I don't really want to leave any of the top three out from the last leg, in case we're still in with a chance of winning something. I am reluctantly going to take five shots again, but if I was to leave one out, it would probably be Absolutely Buzzing.

All of which gives me an overall (late race heavy) selection of...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1 & 2

Leg 3: horses 4, 9 & 10

Leg 4: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 6, 10 & 13

Leg 6: horses 2, 5, 9, 11 & 12

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good luck however you play this one, I'm off to see some monkeys!
Chris.

 



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