Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
So, here we are, with what is I think will be my last column on Geegeez. After countless episodes of Stat of The Day, Racing Insights and more recently here on Tix Picks, my time is up.
Sadly a combination of having to go to press early on Friday and the possibility of abandonments are forcing my hand a little, but Saturday's racing is supposed to come from Cork, Sandown Southwell, Wincanton & Wolverhampton, although it's quite possible there'll be no UK jumps racing.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...
What is Tix?
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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/
Saturday's pools
Saturday's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £100,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown...
I don't really 'do' Irish racing and both UK tracks are being inspected after I leave the North to head to Exeter to return my youngest to University, so I'm only faced with a choice of two modest-looking A/W cards on the Tapeta. The Southwell card looks a marginally higher standard than the Wolverhampton one, so let's head there for six races...
Race 1 @ 2.47...This looks like a two-horse race between (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army, both finished third on their last runs of 2024 with the latter having also done so in his previous outing. he also raced on Friday, winning by a length and a half at Lingfield over a mile.
I'll take both (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army here.
Race 2 @ 3.22...Alyara was narrowly beaten at Chelmsford two starts ago and then won a 1m handicap here at Southwell a fortnight ago. The drop in trip is interesting but he should go well again. Coconut Bay had a spell where he finished 222133931 in the spring/summer but hasn't really hit those heights again since a win over this trip at Catterick in August, but is now 2lbs below that winning mark
Inexplicable is a healthy 10 from 70 on tapeta, but he seems to save his best for Wolverhampton where he is 8/41 as opposed to his 1/18 here and he folded tamely at Newcastle on Thursday. Shaka is a bit of an A/W enigma, failing to win any of 16 starts, but has been the runner-up in three of his last seven, including two here at Southwell, of which one was over this course and distance.
Tenyatta has a slightly better A/W record at 1/12, but it's not much to shout about, although he was less than a length behind Alyara here a fortnight ago when 3rd of 12, so could well get involved again.
It's not a good race and should take much winning and I think that (1) Alyara, (8) Tenyatta and possibly (4) Coconut Bay are the ones to be with.
Race 3 @ 4.03...There are only three runners that remotely interest me here, so all three will be going on the bet builder...
(5) Fact Or Fable won at Bath in mid-August and although winless in six runs since, did show some signs of a return to some semblance of form when 4th of 12 at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day, beaten by little more than half a length and just a head behind Monsieur Fantaisie (below) who finished third.
(7) Monsieur Fantaisie won here over track and trip and as stated above was a narrowly defeated placer at Wolverhampton just over a week ago. Off the same weights, I suppose the placings would remain unchanged, but there's not much between them.
(10) Tathmeen looks the most likely of the rest of the field to chase the above pair home and this 10 yr old veteran is no stranger to the winners' enclosure, having won 13 times on the A/W and after some indifferent form, is now 2lbs below his last winning mark and could surprise a few in this weak affair.
Race 4 @ 4.35...The one I 'like' most here is probably (1) Line Of Force who has three wins and a runner-up finish from his six starts to date and won here over 6f on his A/W debut last time out. More is expected from him now going handicapping. The biggest danger is likely to come from (2) Art Market who won a couple of handicaps on turf in the summer, one at 6f and one at today's trip. Hasn't raced for over three months and now makes an A/W debut 1lb lower than his last turf run.
Race 5 @ 5.05...Moon Over Miami has only raced twice before winning both times at Class 5 over 1m2f/1m3½f on the Flat. Might need the run though after eight months off and a two-step rise in class for his A/W debut. Old Harrovian was last seen finishing third of fourteen in a decent Class 2 handicap at Kempton on his comeback from a four month break. Since then, the winner has won again and the third placed horse has been a runner-up, so that bodes well here.
Asgard's Captain is 5 from 9 on the A/W over the last year with a runner-up finish to boot. He comes here off a win at Newcastle three weeks ago where he stayed on well and I'm not sure a 2lb rise in weight anchors him just yet. Glen Buck won both his first two races a fortnight apart in Jan/Feb of 2023; both on Tapeta and at trips of 1m and 1m1½f. He then reappeared at Wolverhampton six weeks to finish a very creditable third of thirteen over 1m1½f, defying his 656-day layoff and he'd be entitled to come on for having had that run.
Moon Over Miami is plenty good enough for this on another day, but I've concerns about fitness, class and the A/W debut, so I'll set him aside in favour of (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck
Race 6 @ 5.35...Not for the first time today that my picks almost select themselves, as there are only three I'm interested in.
(1) Just Ten High is 1172301 on the A/W and 1721 here at Southwell. he tackled 6f for the first time in his latest race and duly won won here over course and distance and must be the one to beat off a strong gallop.
(7) Bomb Squad has also won over C&D albeit back in August, but he comes here in good nick having finished 3521 in his last four and 321 in his last three over today's trip, all on tapeta including a win at Wolverhampton last time out.
(8) Laura's Breeze hasn't quite been as successful as the other pair, but she has made the frame in 9 of her 18 A/W starts and has 2 wins and 3 further places from 11 on tapeta. Her recent form reads 2733, so she's clearly in good nick and has won here in the past.
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All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Mdawi and (3) Jiff's Army
Leg 2: (1) Alyara, (4) Coconut Bay and (8) Tenyatta
Leg 3: (5) Fact Or Fable, (7) Monsieur Fantaisie & (10) Tathmeen
Leg 4: (1) Line Of Force & (2) Art Market
Leg 5: (6) Old Harrovian, (8) Asgards Captain & (10) Glen Buck
Leg 6: (1) Just Ten High, (7) Bomb Squad & (8) Laura's Breeze
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
And that, as they say, is a wrap. I'd like to thank everyone who has taken their time to read my ramblings over the last thirteen or so years in one guise or another, I have to say it has been a lot of fun.
Good Luck for Saturday, however you play the placepot and it's goodbye from me.
Chris