Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24

Monday's racing comes from Haydock, Taunton & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Haydock...

The biggest guarantee is at Haydock, where the ground is unsurprisingly soft/heavy after the amount of rain we've had in the North West, so we'll tread carefully for our six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...Tiger Jet is a former course and distance winner who returns from a three month break, but that's not a real concern, as he won at Cartmel on heavy ground in August after more than five months off. City Derby won four times in the summer, including three times on soft ground and although not in the same form of late, could be involved down in weight and back on slower ground.

Bushypark probably needed the run when pulled up last time out, but returns to a venue where he is 2 from over C&D and has also won at 2m7f.
Shaped as though he needed his reappearance run and he has an excellent record here. Lady In The Park returns to hurdling, where she is 31225, having struggled over fences this year. She runs off the same mark as a runner-up finish at Ayr in March and could/should go well here and has won on soft ground.

Schalke seemed to have stalled with a series of poor efforts for his former trainer, but a switch of yard has seen him make the frame in both starts for his new handlers, finishing third and then second at Bangor, both on soft ground. He's still 6lbs below his last winning mark from two years ago and it could well be his turn today.

I'll take (3) City Derby, (5) Lady In The Park & (6) Schalke from this one.

Leg 2 @ 1.00...This initially looks like a two-horse race between the top two on the card/weights.

(1) Glynn Brae won a 2m soft ground bumper on debut and then a 2m½f heavy ground hurdle before struggling at Aintree last month when fading badly late on over 2m4f on good ground. Slower ground and a shorter trip should be beneficial to him today. (2) Indeevar Bleu has also won two of his career starts and also won a 2m soft ground bumper on debut. Since that win he has raced just twice in over 21 months, but came back from 393 days off to win comfortably over 1m7½f on heavy ground at Leicester four weeks ago at this grade.

(3) Desert Halo is probably the best of the rest and although he was an 80/1 runner-up last time out, he's still a maiden after five starts and steps up in trip here, so I'll just stick with the top two on the card.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Idalko Bihoue was a seven length winner on his second effort over fences when scoring at Cheltenham at this class/trip in October of 2023. he hasn't quite been art the same level in three runs since, but was 5th of 12 in a Grade 2 back at HQ in April but does drop in class here and is now only 3lbs higher than that last win. Classic Maestro has only failed to finish in the first two on two occasions from twelve starts, winning six times. He has already comfortably won three races this month, making all and looks the one to beat.

The Flier Begley needs to bounce back from a couple of indifferent efforts since landing back to back handicap in October at Warwick & Carlisle. He's down a couple of pounds here, so only 3lbs higher than his last win and could be a place contender. Trac probably needed the run after seven months off when last home of six at Kelso last month. The good to soft ground might also have been a little 'quick' for him too, as he was 214411 on soft/heavy last season after another modest comeback effort, so if this season goes the same way, he should be involved.

I'm least keen on The Flier Begley from my shortlist, so I'm going with (1) Idalko Bihoue, (2) Classic Maestro & (6) Trac here.

Leg 4 @ 2.00...Last year's runner-up Gold Emery was on my overnight four-runner shortlist, but he was withdrawn this morning, taking me down to the following three...

Galassian makes a chase debut after progressing nicely over hurdles culminating in a soft ground win at Bangor earlier this month. he might not have tackled a fence under Rules but has won a 3m PTP race. Wal Bucks has already had three cracks at the bigger obstacles, improving each time from 6th of 9 (11 lengths down) on debut in May to 3rd of 12 (4.5L) at Ayr last month to 2nd of 10 beaten by just a neck at Wetherby earlier this month over this trip on soft ground and a similar run puts him right in the mix.

Cream Of The West was 3121 over hurdles on soft/heavy ground in his first four starts last season and was a respectable 6th of 14 on chase debut at Hexham 19 days ago, considering the 2m4f was probably too short for him and also that he'd not raced for over eight months. Up in trip and with the benefit of a run, he could/should be involved here.

He's the weaker option of the three and he'd have been behind Gold Emery in my thoughts, too, so I'll just go with (2) Galassian & (5) Wal Bucks here.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...Smart Decision was a comfortable winner at 5/1 on his debut at Doncaster a month ago when staying on well under today's jockey. He seemed to have plenty left in the tank and on that run could be the one to beat, but Eagles Reprieve also won on debut recently, albeit a junior bumper at Wetherby, when sent off at 10/1 on soft ground.

The above pair are the two I'd want from those with a run under their belts as L'Air Du Large was last home of four on a bumper despite being the 7/4 fav and Mystical Martika was only 5th of 9, sixteen lengths down on her bumper run at Wetherby recently.

Of the pair yet to race, the interesting one has to be Itstonitejosephine. We've got the de Boinville/Henderson partnership with a filly by Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs out of an unraced dam related to dual Grade 1 hurdle winner L'Ami Serge and when you put all of that together, she's difficult to ignore.

I'll take three here ie (2) Smart Decision, (3) Eagles Reprieve & (6) Itstonitejosephine.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The Big Breakaway isn't the horse of two seasons ago when a decent Class 1/2 handicapper, but was second of ten at Ascot last time out and whilst beaten by some 31 lengths, was himself 20 lengths clear of the third placed horse and he's down two pounds here. Gaboriot has made the frame in 10 of 16 over fences, winning five times at trips of 3m to 4m½f and he's 4 from 5 beyond 3m. Things didn't go to plan last time out when a bad mistake and getting hampered later on contributed to him being 6th of 14, but the step up in trip should suit.

Montgomery won three on the bounce on soft/heavy ground last spring and although probably needing the run after 231 days off, was only beaten by six lengths last time out and his yard have won this race in three of the last seven renewals, including last season. The Two Amigos won the Welsh Grand National just over two years ago, but has only raced twice since. He was 7th of 17 in the Midlands National in March 2023 before a 627-day absence. he returned to action here at Haydock four weeks ago and went well for some way before weakening badly and was pulled up before the last.

Fantastikas was a 19-length third in this race last year off a mark 4lbs higher than today and he comes here off the back of a decent 3rd of 9 over 3m at Uttoxeter three weeks ago. Of this quintet, I'm going to put (2) Gaboriot, (3) Montgomery & (5) Fantastikas on my Tix bet builder.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) City Derby, (5) Lady In The Park & (6) Schalke

Leg 2: (1) Glynn Brae & (2) Indeevar Bleu

Leg 3: (1) Idalko Bihoue, (2) Classic Maestro & (6) Trac

Leg 4: (2) Galassian & (5) Wal Bucks

Leg 5: (2) Smart Decision, (3) Eagles Reprieve & (6) Itstonitejosephine

Leg 6: (2) Gaboriot, (3) Montgomery & (5) Fantastikas

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/12/24