The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where Citizen Beneral and Broxi would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...
- 3.10 Nottingham
- 3.20 Brighton
- 4.00 Yarmouth
- 7.00 Newcastle
- 9.00 Newcastle
...from which, the 3.20 Brighton is the highest rated. It's a 10-runner, Class 3, fillies handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker/firmer in places and here's how they line up...
Rikona, She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky all won last time out and they are currently 2 from 4, 2 from 3 and 2 from 2 respectively. Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Wisper all won two starts ago, Rich & Pure Gold both won three back and only Arenas Del Tiempo and Orange Martini are without a recent win. In fairness, the latter is only a three-race maiden, but the former has lost eleven on the spin since a win at Epsom in August 2021.
None of these raced at Class 3 last time around as Crystal Estrella, Rich both drop down one class, whilst Three Priests, Wisper, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold, Orange Martini all step up one level, but Rikona, Arenas Del Tiempo & She's Hot are all up two classes here.
Quite a few of these lack handicap experience, as Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Pure Gold have only had prior hcp run, whilst She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky are both on handicap debut today. Two of the field (Wisper and Arenas Del Tiempo) have won here at Brighton before, both scoring over course and distance, whilst Crystal Estrella and Rokina have won elsewhere over this 1m2f trip.
Half of the field have raced inside the last two months, but Crystal Estrella, Wisper, She's Hot, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are coming back from breaks of 185 to 237 days and migfht well need a run. The last thing to note from the card is that the five three year olds (Rich, She's Hot, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold & Orange Martini) all get a whopping 15lbs weights allowance.
Other stats to note are that Maid In Kentucky has never raced on turf before, only Arenas Del Tiempo has raced at Class 3 before (she's 0 from 3), the two course and distance winner sare the only to to have raced here and that Rich, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are trying this trip for the first time...
This lack of Instant Expert data is part of my reluctance to play the Flat early doors, but I can't swerve it forever. We do have limited info here, but you can already suggest that Wisper might go well here, especially if it dries out more, as she's won three times on good firm, whilst Arenas Del Tiempo would also prefer it quicker with a 2 from 3 record on good firm, but a poor win return on good ground, but generally speaking her place records are good...
...so I wouldn't be too hasty to rule her out here. The forecast is for dry windy weather and that might just quicken the turf up for that pair, who both drawn high (8 & 10) here, which in the past has been a good place to run from...
...over a track/trip where hold-up horses have won their fair share of races, but prominent runners have tended to be most successful...
The fact that leaders make the frame most often, but win least often suggests they get picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners and based on this field's most recent efforts...
...that would be better news for Wisper than it would for Arenas Del Tiempo from those wide draws and this dominance of the prominent runner is starkly highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...
...which points firmly towards Maid In Kentucky and Crystal Estrella in stalls 6 & 7 with that mid-draw prominence, whilst Rokina and Pure Gold might well fill the low drawn hold-up role here, giving them a chance.
Summary
It's hard to get away from Maid In Kentucky, even if she hasn't yet raced on turf. She's in good form, seeking a hat-trick, she's got a reasonable opening mark of 82, she gets that 15lb allowance, has won at this trip and has he ideal pace/draw combination. So she'd be my pick here at a pretty fair 7/2 with Hills.
Elsewhere, she might well pull Crystal Estrella along with her and if she's not too rusty after seven months off, could well make the frame at 12's (Bet365) and another I liked as an E/W possible was Rikona, who is 3 from 7 and a previous distance winner and is also attractively priced at 12/1, although Three Priests might well beat one or both of them with a late run.