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Racing Insights, 27th November 2021

The Trainer/Jockey Combo stats report (TJC) brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

We make this TJC report free to all readers every Saturday , alongside the following free races of the day...

  • 1.15 Newbury
  • 1.22 Bangor
  • 2.46 Fairyhouse
  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 3.42 Bangor
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

For today's piece, I'm turning to the TJC report for a look at a combo that has done well over the past year...

...and the Alistair Ralph/Nick Scholfield partnership have two runners at Bangor tomorrow.

Butler's Brief is a 6yr old gelding who runs in a 7-runner, Class 3, chase over 2m4½f on Good to Soft ground, whilst Llantara is a 10yr old mare in a 9-runner, Class 4, chase over 2m1½f. The trainer/jockey combo have a total of 7 wins and 7 further places from 25 races this year and they include...

  • 1 win, 3 places from 7 here at Bangor
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 18 in handicaps (as per the report)
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 7 in hcp chases
  • 1 win, 2 places from 6 on good to soft ground

    Re : Butler's Brief, the pair are...

  • 1 place from 2 Class 3 runs
  • 7 wins, 4 places from 21 with male runners
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 with 6 yr olds

    As for Llantara, they are...

  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 at Class 4
  • 3 places from 4 with females
  • no runs with 10 yr olds

Butler's Brief steps down in class after a poor run in a 3m½f, Class 2 hurdle at Cheltenham five weeks ago, but probably needed the run after a five month break from action. Prior to that break, he won three times on the spin, all under Nick Scholfield's steering and he now tackles fences for the first time and runs off the same mark as when pulled up LTO. He's pretty inexperienced under today's conditions with just two good to soft runs, but he is 1 from 1 here at Bangor, having finished 9 lengths clear of the field in the third of those wins above.

He likes to race prominently and that would appear to be a good tactic here, although he's only 4th of 7 on average pace scores. That said, both yard and rider have good records here at Bangor and  they'll know what tactics would work best here.

*

Llantara obviously shares the same stats as her stablemate above, but she's on a 9-race losing run, having last tasted success at Hexham in mid-March 2019, so it has been a while between drinks. In fairness to her, aside from a poor run LTO some 238 days ago, she had made the frame in five of her six starts since the start of 2020, suggesting there might still be some life in the old girl yet.

She may well need the run after 8 months off, but is assisted by dropping down two classes and a couple of pounds so that she's now 6lbs lower than her last win, which was over hurdles as she now tackles fences for only the second time. She has tended to be held-up when racing over hurdles, but those tactics probably won't be the rights ones here and she'll either stick with the old approach and struggle, or she'll be asked to get more involved earlier and I suspect the latter will apply as the team certainly know what it takes to win here.

Summary

The Ralph/Scholfield combo run two chasers here at Bangor and both have the ability to get in the mix, if they can overcome their lack of experience over fences. I do like Butler's Brief and I think he could go well here on chase debut. He's attractively priced at 8/1 but I think the likes of the 11/2 Mint Condition or the 4/1 Champagnesuperover might fare a little better than him. From an E/W perspective, there are sadly just two places being paid, but at 8's, I'll possibly still have a small punt.

Llantara, on the other hand, looks up against it, despite dropping two classes, especially if dwells at the back of the field. She ahs been off the track for a long time and I think I'd have preferred her to have had a more recent run. She's no mug and places consistently, but it'll be a watching brief for me here, even if she is a tempting 12/1. The 7/2 Boagrius is probably the one to beat, whilst his 16/1 stablemate Baby King might well outrun those odds for a place.

Racing Insights, 26th November 2021

My Friday's Horses for Courses (H4C) report looks like this...

...and I'm showing you that because this report is free to all readers every Friday, along with these free races...

  • 11.50 Lingfield
  • 12.40 Newbury
  • 5.15 Chelmsford
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I suppose I really should look at the three H4C runners...

Kentucky Kingdom's record here is all over course and distance with finishes of 2145113 which includes form of...

  • 2136 under today's jockey
  • 4513 at Class 5
  • Highest winning mark of 67, 3rd of 13 (4 lengths) on his last visit off 71 and runs off 70 here

Bayston Hill's 12 Chelmsford runs have also all been over course and distance (inc this race last year) finishing 312311112828, including...

  • 3123122 at Class 5
  • 3111228 under today's jockey
  • Highest win mark 67, 8th of 11 (7.5 lengths) off 71 last visit, now runs off 70

Central City has just seven previous visits finishing 4214613, including...

  • 14613 over course and distance
  • 461 at Class 5 (has won here at Class 4)
  • Highest win here off 74 (twice), 3rd of 9 (1 length) off 77 on last visit and now off 69 with a 7lb claimer who hasn't ridden him here before.

All of the above results are contained in their overall A/W handicap form, which is documented in Instant Expert...

...where Central City looks weakest on standard going, but strongest on Class 5 form (and has a Class 4 success here). Kentucky Kingdom has a poor Class 5 record on the A/W and is closely matched with Bayston Hill on going, track and distance. In fact there's very little between the three of them on distance. Central City is now 5lb lower than his last win and has a 7lb claimer on board, but the other pair are 3lbs above their last win.

They're all drawn in the upper 36% of the draw with Kentucky/Central side by side in 9/10 and Bayston runs second widest of the field out in box 13. The draw stats don't actually show a massive bias here, which isn't a great surprise as 1m2f is a decent enough trip for a horse to overcome whatever draw he/she gets...

I suppose, ideally, you wouldn't want that high sector draw based on the above, but an IV of 0.84 isn't disastrous although it's worse news for Bayston Hill than the other two. He might need to ensure his rce tactics are spot on to get involved and we're advised that...

...hold=up horses struggle, but other than that it's actually better to sit back off the pace, so let's check how our trio have been running of late...

...which says Kentucky Kingdom might struggle from the back of the field and that Central City is probably best positioned of the other two.

Summary

Nice and quick today and based purely on what's above, I'd want these three in the following order...

Central City / Kentucky Kingdom / Bayston Hill

I actually think that all three could get placed with most bookies paying four places and at odds of 16/1, 8/1 and 14/1 (Hills at 4.20pm), I'd not deter you from having a punt on any of them, but I certainly prefer the first two. Central City looks really well weighted here and if his 7lb claimer gets to grips with the task ahead, that 16/1 pricetag might look very generous indeed.

As for one of them winning the race, why not? They've every chance, they know what's ahead of them and I'm sure they'll all go well. Dangers are expected to be the 3/1 fav Vocatus and/or the 8/1 Maysong.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, 25th November 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular geegeez racecard tab, because it is able to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And we make this open to all readers for all races every Thursday, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 1.35 Thurles
  • 3.35 Wolverhampton
  • 6.20 Chelmsford
  • 7.50 Chelmsford

The third of those races looks the best quality (on paper, at least), so I'm going have a crack at the 6.20 Chelmsford. Only 6 run, but it's a Class 2, 3yo+ handicap worth almost £10k. The trip is a left handed seven furlongs on standard going polytrack and here are your runners and riders etc...

...where on recent finishing positions alone, Trumble looks to be the form horse, but he is stepping up two classes, as is Papa Stour. Mehmento, on the other hand, has had three Group 3 runs this season and now drops down for his handicap debut, whereas Mum's Tipple made his handicap bow LTO and will seek to improve upon being second last of sixteen. Corvair has a fairly consistent string of recent form (albeit all losses) behind him and now makes a yard debut for the out of form Robert Cowell after leaving Team Crisford. All bar Alexander James have at least one win at this trip, whilst Trumble has won here over 7f. Papa Stour has wins at both track and trip but not at the same time.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, will give us a unique snapshot of how this bunch have performed previously under similar A/W conditions...

..and in handicaps...

Trumble, the form horse, probably looks the pick of them based on A/W form, but he's now two classes and 7lbs higher than his three length success over course and distance earlier this month. Corvair is only two pounds higher than his last win, but he has lost eleven races since then and that was back in early March 2020! Mehmento looks interesting despite having no A/W handicap form, whilst Papa Stour's 0 from 8 at this grade is a worry, even if he is 3lbs lower than his last win.

We've got a left handed 7f here and as is often the case on such tracks, stall 1 does pretty well in small field contests, but the place to be is probably in the 3 to 5 region, giving yourself a better racing angle towards the bend and this is borne out by the stats below...

...which could be good news for the likes of Corvair, Mehmento and Mum's Tipple, but in a small field like this, it's quite possible that race tactics aka pace will play a more important role in how this race unfolds. Chelmsford is known for favouring front runners and this article explains in far more/better detail than I ever could, but in graphical/numerical terms...

...leaders make the frame in almost half of their runs and the further back you run, the further back you tend to finish! And with that in mind, it's not a massive leap to come to the conclusion that a 3 to 6 draw for a front-runner might be very profitable, as shown below...

We know the draw already, of course, but what about running styles? Well, here's the geegeez advantage, because we log them for every runner from every race and here are the pace scores (4=led, 3=prominent, 2=mid-div, 1=held-up) for our six runners...

...where we've one confirmed front runner (Mehmento) and one (Trumble) that won't be too far off the pace. Not such good news for Mum's Tipple and/or Alexander James, though.

At this point, you've probably already jumped ahead of me and you're checking where Mehmento is drawn and possibly rubbing your hands at the fact he's got a plum draw in box 4, so what we'll do now is to put the runners in draw order and drop them onto that pace/draw heat map, as follows...

...which gives us Mehmento, the well drawn front-runner and Trumble, the form horse as the two we should probably focus on.

Summary

In an ideal world, we'll get a 1-2 with these two pace-setters, but who wins? Well, from a value perspective, you'd want the 13/2 Mehmento to prevail over the 11/8 favourite trumble (prices from hills, the only open book at 3.50pm), but can/will he?

Well he only made his debut 10 months go and has won three of six starts, including two from two on the A/W. They were both Class 5 non-handicap affairs at Southwell in Jan/Feb, before four runs on the turf at Class 1, which saw him finish as a runner-up, beaten by a neck in a group 3 at Newbury prior to landing a Listed race at Epsom in mid-June, but was well beaten in two more Gr 3 contests since. He's had a bit of a rest, a wind op and drops down in class here for his handicap debut.

He's got a mark of 104 here, but did run to a level of 108 earlier in the year, so if the rest/operation has the desired effect, that price of 13/2 might look massive tomorrow.

As for the fav, Trumble, he's two from five this year after an indifferent start to the year where he was last of nine, sixth of seven and fifth of six prior to a 106 day break from which he returned to win here over 6f off a reduced mark of 78 and he followed that up next/last time out with a 3 length C&D success here 19 days ago off a mark of 85. The runner-up that day has raced again off the same mark and could only manage to finish 6th of 9, so it might not have been a great race that Trumble won and another 7lb rise to a mark of 92 certainly leaves very little room for error.

There's probably not going to be much between them, but I'd rather be on at 13/2 than 11/8, I'd rather be on a leader than a chaser here at Chelmsford, I prefer the #4 draw to the #6 and I prefer a horse who has achieved a higher past performance than one needing 7lbs better than his previous best, so I'm siding with Mehmento at 13/2 ahead of the 11/8 fav Trumble.

Racing Insights, 24th November 2021

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

We think that the TS report is so helpful that we make it freely available to all readers every Wednesday, a day where winners can often be hard to find and this is in addition to our usual selection of free races, which will be...

  • 12.30 Hereford
  • 2.00 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 5.30 Dundalk

As is often the case, my own personal settings for the TS report...

...haven't generated very many horses to consider, just two in fact!

So, from 14-day handicap form...

...and from course 1-year handicap form...

...we've got two look at, starting with Josie Abbing, a 7yr old who runs in a 4-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f (4327 yards) on Good ground, shown on your cards as the 2.40 Hereford...

We know from above that Fergal O'Brien is in great form with 10 winners and 7 placers from 30 handicappers, but a quick dive into them shows that they include...

  • 7/21 over hurdles
  • 7/17 in fields of 8 runners or fewer
  • 6/11 at Class 3
  • 4/9 with 7yr olds
  • 4/15 over hurdles
  • and 3/7 with females
    BUT...
  • just 2/13 at trips shorter than 2m4f
  • and 0/4 with today's jockey.

Josie Abbing has only made two starts for Fergal O'Brien, but was a half length runner-up on yard debut over this course and distance six weeks ago. She was sent of as the 11/20 fav that day as she raced off today's mark of 100, but was beaten by 9 lengths on unsuitably soft ground last time out.

Of her handicap hurdle form where's has won 2 of 16, Instant Expert tells us...

...both her wins have been on good ground (she made the frame in both Gd to Fm runs, in case it dries out), she's 0/2 at Class 3 (both wins were at Class 5), she's 0/2 here (but was that 0.5 lengths runner-up over C&D on her last visit) and she's some 9lbs higher than her last win 9and a stone more than her other hcp hrd success), so not much to get excited about here.

She's a confirmed hold-up horse, which hasn't been too bad a tactic at Hereford over the years, but leaders have fared best and based on her last two runs (both wins) Nikap might blast her rivals out straight from the start giving Josie too much to do...

There is a danger that all three might go off too quickly for her, forcing her to get too involved too soon.

*

Now we head over the water for a rare Insights foray into Irish racing, where the 3 yr old filly, No Browsin takes on 13 rivals (Hell Left Loose is a reserve) in a 45-65 rated, 3yo+ A/W (polytrack) handicap over a left handed 7f and here's the card for the 2.30 Dundalk...

We've already seen that trainer Sarah Lynam has 8 winners and 8 further placers from just 23 handicappers here at Dundalk over the last year and this 34.8% strike rate is not only excellent but is also in stark contrast to her overall 7% strike rate (19/270) and her 8/23 here over the past 12 months include of relevance today...

  • 7/20 in fields of 12-14 runners
  • and 2/6 with females
    BUT...
  • 0/2 over 7f
  • no 3 yr old runners
  • and no rides by today's jockey, Billy Lee but at least the rider is in good form elsewhere.

No Browsin is very lightly raced so far, having been seen just four times to date. She was 3rd of 14 over C&D on debut 11 months ago, beaten by just half a length and a short head, but that has turned out to be a poor maiden with just 3 winners from 84 races since.

She took five months off after debut and then struggled in two races on the turf at Cork in the summer, before taking another 161 days off prior to re-appearing here at Dundalk a week ago, where she was beaten by less than 3 lengths over 6f, finding no extra late on. It's highly possible that she needed the run and will improve here, though.

With a formline of 3057, Instant Expert isn't going to tell us very much at all from a win perspective, so here are her stats from a place point of view...

...again, not a great deal to go on, but she has at least had some relative A/W success already. She makes a handicap debut off a mark of 62 here, meaning she's going to be carrying top weight. As she has precious little form of her own, to be top rated suggests a poor contest against many runners well tried and failed. In fact, the most successful horse in the field is the 8yr old Fit For Function with an 8.5% strike rate (7 from 82), but the rest of the field are just 13/273 (4.76% SR) combined, which speaks volumes.

No Browsin is drawn in stall 8 of the 14 runners and a middle draw has been successful enough in the past...

... and even if her particular stall doesn't have the best win record...

...I'd say she was in the right area to start from. pace is going to be very important, but with just two A/W and two turf runs, it's quite possible that she hasn't yet fully adopted a running style, but she scored a 2 and a 3 on her two A/W runs to date...

...and if she runs to that mid-div/prominent position again, then I'd advise the latter rather than the former, based on past races here...

...if she can crack on with it, she'd have more chance, but I'd imagine this pair will be setting the fractions...

Summary

The bookies have Josie Abbing as 9/4 second favourite, but the Geegeez SR figures have her as third best of our and I'd sadly be inclined to agree with the SR. The 11/8 fav Nikap reverts to the smaller obstacles today, but should be running away with this one and I'd expect the 4/1 Golden Emblem to be the biggest danger.

As for No Browsin, she could be something but she could be nothing. On the plus die, she doesn't have a string of failures already behind her, but then again she ahs no experience and makes a handicap debut off what looks a tough mark. She's drawn midfield and I'd not be surprised if she finishes midfield (or first or last etc). This isn't a race I'd want to get too involved in (not just because it's an Irish one). That said, if I was to play, I'd want to find a firm paying 4 places, if not 5 so I could have a small E/W punt on the 5 yr old mare, Pimstrel, assuming I could get 14/1 or bigger, that is!

But of our two possibles we started with : NO BETS.

 

 

Racing Insights, 23rd November 2021

Some of Geegeez' features are only available to Gold subscribers (if you've not tried it, you really should take a low-priced trial to see what's included), but we do open parts of the service up each day to give all readers a feel for the service. To this end, we give free access to one Gold feature and a selections of races each day.

For Tuesday, those races are set to be...

  • 3.35 Punchestown
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...whilst our feature of the day is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It's a colour-coded report that covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both the current and the next day’s racing...

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is (and has always been) that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it does continue to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and/or its odds might imply. And here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

Mondammej is the more interesting of the two Shortlist horses and he runs in one of our free races, so it makes sense for me to focus there today. In fairness, it's a decent standard of race and whilst Mondammej is likely to be fairly short in the market and there are only seven runners, we might find reasons to lay him or we might find ourselves an E/W pick.

So, without further ado, let's head towards the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 5f on standard tapeta and it's worth almost £10k to one of these...

My own initial thoughts were that Mondammej and Exalted Angel might be the ones to watch or even Venturous based on past exploits, whilst the likes of  Royal Birth & Marnie James look weakest. The latter is the only one without a win in their recent formline too and he's up in class despite finishing 10th of 12 last time out. He has, however, won over this trip in the past, but so have all his rivals.

Royal Birth has also won here at Wolverhampton, whilst Venturous, Mondammej and Fizzy Feet have all won over this course and distance, but the latter is also up in class after finishing last of 8 last time out, which is a negative based on form and class rise, but also because he hasn't been seen for over 16 weeks.

Today's feature is, of course, The Shortlist and we know that Mondammej scores highly there and we can put those Shortlist colours into numbers via Instant Expert...

...where Mondammej looks the one to beat and probably Venturous as best of the rest, whilst more specifically on the A/W...

...I'd probably side with the same pair with Blue de Vega looking weakest.

The draw could play a part here, with there being a left handed turn in the middle of such a short race and what we've found is that both high and low draws do pretty well at the expense of those sandwiched in the middle...

...meaning that you'd probably not want to be in stalls 3, 4 or 5 (not good for Exalted Angel, Mondammej or Fizzy Feet), based on the stall by stall analysis...

There is, however, a school of thought that if you're good enough and you approach the race in the right way, then your tactics might well help you overcome the draw and the pace stats for such a race say that it's best to lead and set the pace, but prominent/mid-div runners do OK and all that's because hold-up runners really struggle...

With those numbers in mind, here's how these seven have approached their last four outings...

...which is a reversal of everything else we've seen so far. The two I've been leaning towards, Mondammej & Venturous are going to have to come from a long way back and I suppose the hope is that they drag each other into the contest from the upper half of the draw, yet when we look at how the pace and draw work with each other, Venturous is shown in a far better light...

...with only the previously maligned Royal Birth seeming better equipped from just outside Venturous.

Summary

We started with Mondammej, he's the form horse, he's the Shortlist horse, but is poorly drawn and his hold-up running style might not be the best approach, but his ability and speed mean he's still a contender, as winners rarely tick all the boxes.

Venturous was one I thought from the outset could be well suited and he showed up well on Instant Expert, draw and pace/draw. His hold-up style, like Mondammej, hasn't always worked for other horses here, but aside from that he looks to have a real chance and if I was to add one more from the pack to join my two shortlisted horses, it would probably be Exalted Angel. He's well drawn, will be quick away, has a good A/W record and drops in class.

So, that's my three from seven...

  • Exalted Angel was admittedly beaten by over 7 lengths last time out, but that was a Listed race at Lingfield when he faed in the last of six furlongs and he now drops down in class and trip. He was second (beaten by a head) off this mark back in April and although still pretty high in the weights, could go close with a similar effort.
  • Mondammej actually blows a bit hot and cold. Three wins from his last five have been interspersed by runs finishing 14th of 16 and last of 21 and prior to this run of form, he was winless in eight. That said, he's always there or thereabouts on the A/W with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 and on paper is the best in the race.
  • Venturous has six wins and two places from 14 on tapeta, loves the surface. Yes, he's disadvantaged by coming late, but it's not a big field and he's well drawn to avoid trouble and having made the frame 6 times from 10 over 5f on this surface (winning four times), he seems to have the measure of what's needed. He's proven at this grade, but might just be carrying too much weight.

Mondammej is the best in the race on his day, but is inconsistent and isn't favoured by pace/draw stats etc. That said, he gets weight from the other two I've shortlisted and should just about prevail. Sadly he's priced at 7/4 and that's no value in my opinion, so I'll leave him alone today. Of the other two, I prefer Venturous based on his past successes and at 10/1 with Hills, I can't not back him E/W.

Racing Insights, 22nd November 2021

The pace tab on the racecard is a really useful tool that will help us get a good idea of how the tactics race might unfold. We feel that pace is so important and under-used that we make this feature totally FREE to ALL readers for ALL races every Sunday & Monday including, of course, our daily free races which are scheduled to be...

  • 2.00 Ludlow
  • 2.45 Ayr
  • 3.05 Ludlow
  • 5.30 Chelmsford

And it probably makes sense to look at the last on that list, as Chelmsford is renowned for having a pace bias and it's actually the highest rated of the four free races. Sadly, it only has fine runners and as I'm late posting this evening (family function), I'm aware that the bookies think it'll be a two-horse race, but that doesn't mean it's a futile exercise assessing the 5.30 Chelmsford, a 5-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 6f on Standard Polytrack...

So, the bookies see Regional and Above as the two most likely to fill the frame here. My own initial thoughts would also agree, but I also had Corinthia Knight very closely matched with Above. The Geegeez SR figures would appear to favour Shallow Hal and above, but the caveat there is that Regional has no rating, having never tackled the A/W.

This also means that Regional will have very little relevant form on display on Instant Expert...

...that said, you can still see that he has a previous Class 2 win, a 6f win and has an opening A/W mark of 98 (he was 3rd off this mark on the Flat LTO). Of his four rivals, all have a tleast one block of red and with The Last Lion having two reds, he's probably worst off here, whilst Above is the only previous course winner whereas Corinthia Knight's 0 from 6 at Chelmsford is a worry. From a weight perspective, both Above and Shallow Hal are considerably higher than their last A/W wins, but Corinthia Knight could be weighted to win.

The draw here over a left handed six furlong definitely favours those drawn lowest...

...and aside from stalls 2 and 3 being slightly flip-flopped, the inference is that your chances of winning/making the frame diminish with every position away from the rails you are drawn. Above has the plum draw in stall 1 and Shallow Hal will have most to do from box 5, but his race tactics might help him get involved...

The stats from Shallow Hal's last four runs suggest he's a mid division type runner, but it's highly likely based on pace averages that he'll only have Regional behind him in the early stages. To be honest with you, that pace profile won't exactly put either of those two at a disadvantage and mid-div/hold-up runners have done OK (if not spectacularly well) here...

Ideally you want to lead from a low draw or sit further back off the pace, as chasing the leader looks to be a difficult task. Essentially you can waste too much energy chasing, not leaving enough in the tank for a finish. Corinthia Knight looks like the pacesetter here and he's drawn well in stall 2. The Last Lion probably ends up the disadvantaged chaser, but stall 3 isn't horrific. Above has that plum 1 draw, but with two high pace scores and two low ones, much will depend on his approach. If he's slow away, then his stall advantage will dissipate. Finally, we have the favourite Regional, who isn't ideally suited by pace nor draw, but would hope to still be involved by sheer ability.

Summary

No horse ticks all the boxes here, but based on the above The Last Lion and Shallow Hal look the weakest of our five runners, so I'm going to strip it down to three...

  • Above is a former course and distance winner (Class 4, June 2019 on debut), but after finishing 1211 in his first four starts taking his mark to 100, is now 0 from 10 since October 2019. He had some good runs in the summer of 2020 off marks of 98 and 100 (twice) and looked like coming back to form when just 1.75 lengths adrift at Kempton at this class/trip 24 days ago. Eased another pound could go well.
  • Corinthia Knight is far more experienced than each of his rivals (51 races to his rivals' combined 58) and has a healthy 8 wins and 6 places from 34 on the A/W. he won back to back 6f contests at Pontefract in the summer, but looked like he needed the run when 6th of 8 at Kempton 24 days ago. he was coming back from a 96-day break, set the pace and was caught and eventually beaten by just 2.5 lengths. He should come back on for that run and is now a pound lower.
  • Regional is a lightly raced 3yr old who has won two of five starts so far, including a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 94 two starts ago and has already been considered good enough to tackle two Listed contests. On paper, he's the best horse in the race, but makes an A/W debut off a mark of 98, the same mark he was beaten off last time out.

Regional is, for me, the best horse in the race and had this been on turf, I'd have been all over him. I don't dispute that he'll be well prepared for his A/W debut, but a mark of 98 leaves no room for error and at odds of 11/8, I don't think I want to get involved. Basically, I think that if he "gets" the surface, he wins, but that's not 11/8 for me, especially with the pace and draw being against him.

Above is next on my/the bookies lists and he's been a long time between drinks. He's well drawn, but is inconsistent on pace. If he makes full use of stall 1 and breaks quickly, he'd have every chance, but losing has become a bad habit for him and odds of 15/8 about a horse on a 0 from 10 run aren't particularly attractive, so I can't back him either.

Corinthia Knight is probably just third best of the five runners, but is the one who interests me most. He's available at odds of 15/2 and that's borderline E/W territory for me normally. With only five runners, I'm happy to lower my sights and I think a small E/W play or place only bet is my way forward from this race. He's got a decent draw, will set the pace and is well weighted. There's every chance he'll grab a soft lead and hold on.

Of course, it might just be a Regional/Above 1-2 as the market suggests, but I think CK will give me a good run for my money.

 

 

 

Racing Insights, 20th November 2021

Saturday's free-to-all Geegeez Gold feature is the rather excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats Report (or TJC for brevity), which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

But wait, there's more free goodness in the form of our daily 'races of the day', which for Saturday are as follows...

  • 1.10 Lingfield
  • 1.38 Gowran Park
  • 3.00 Haydock
  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

My stringent parameters for the TJC report...

...have generated no qualifiers, so I'm going to look at the 3.30 Lingfield, which is a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over a left handed 7f on Standard going polytrack and it's worth £2,700 to one of this dozen...

My aim is to quickly whittle these down to a shortlist of possible bets and the first thing I'm going to do is to remove Alicestar, Born to Finish and Joe Proud from the equation. I expect all three to be priced at 33/1 or bigger and such horses rarely win and are generally those odds for a reason. Born To finish might also need a run after nearly 20 weeks off. I'm also not a fan of backing horses who have never made the frame before and Charming Paradise's 9th of 9, 9th of 12, 11th of 12, 12th of 12 and 7th of 11 doesn't appeal to me at all, so he's gone too and we're down to 8!

Olivia Mary is the only LTO winner here and of the others, just three (Clegane, Nibras Shadow & Red Evelyn) have a win in their recent formline. The Geegeez SR figures predict a tight race between three of that quartet and I think I see it that way too from my initial look at the race.

We can assess past form via Instant Expert, of course...

...where in terms of winning races on the A/W, Clegane certainly catches the eye, but full lines of red for Always Dreaming, Keep Right On and Maahi Ve are a concern. perhaps they've been unlucky not to win, but have made the frame a few times?

Well, yes, that trio certainly look better from a place perspective and live to stay in the selection process a little longer. Red Evelyn looks weak for making the frame and as I don't think she's anywhere near winning this, she has to go because she's not a placer either. Olivia Mary is the standout on places showing some consistency and at the moment, I'd want to be choosing just from those with any green.

Next up is the draw and our seven runners are to be berthed in boxes 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11 and 12, so I'm hoping the higher half of the draw is the place to be over 7f here at Lingfield. Time to check the Draw Analyser...

I'll admit that isn't quite what I was expecting or hoped for, but of my seven I've got left, it looks good for Nibras Shadow (stall 3) and also Clegane / Keep Right On in 11 and 12 respectively. Perhaps those drawn centrally and possibly inconvenienced by the above will be able to over come the draw by getting their race tactics spot on.

To ascertain if this will be the case, we now turn to the Pace Analyser, which says...

...that prominent or leading position is most advantageous, so we're going to be looking for pace scores of 3 or 4 from our runners and here's how they have raced in their last four outings...

...which isn't good for the likes of Light Lily. Previously heralded Nibras Shadow and Clegane don't seem to have the best pace profiles either, but both have raced prominently in the past, but it looks like advantage Olivia Mary here, although there could well be a pace burn-up from wide and that could drag Clegane forward.

The pace/draw combo stats are interesting, though...

...as they would tend to largely negate the effect of the draw as all stalls do well. with prominent/leader pace scores.

Summary

The Geegeez SR scores were as follows...

...and I thought they were the 3 most likely to succeed. Having gone through the toolbox, I've not changed my mind and now I've seen the market, the bookies also have these three in the first four. They've got Nibras Shadow as the 11/4 fav and whilst I've little separating her from her younger rival, I'm siding marginally with the 3yr old filly, Olivia Mary. 6/1 offers some value here, I think.

As for Clegane, she's 8/1 and with most bokies paying four places, she's worht an E/W bet escpecially as she's already won over course and distance three months ago off a mark of 60 and goes here off 62 with a 7lb claimer.

Racing Insights, 18th November 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 12.45 Wincanton
  • 1.15 Wincanton
  • 2.00 Thurles
  • 3.15 Wincanton

If I'm honest, none of the free races grab my attention enough to want to get involved with them, so I looked at tomorrow's racecards page and decided to set the following filters to narrow down my choice of races...

...which produced the following race list for me...

...and the one I'm most interested in is the 1.22 Market Rasen, as it's a Class 2 handicap (should have some form to work with) for 8 runners (so 3 E/W places). There is unfortunately a fly in the ointment in the shape of a short priced favourite, but I'm going to try to find us an E/W bet. We don't currently have any odds showing on the card, so I lifted the following from Oddschecker at 3.10pm (other odds comparison sites are available, of course!)...

...and I want to disregard the first three on the list, because I don't like to bet shorter than 8/1 for E/W purposes, leaving me with a card looking like this...

...for a Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle on good ground worth £10,892.

All five are up in class, Small Present has the best formline, but struggled LTO (was over fences, mind and after 211 days off). Potters Hedger might need a run after a 7 month break. Three of the five have won here previously with Giovanni Change a former C&D winner.

Past win form via Instant Expert...

...gives an edge to Small Present and Giovanni Change, whilst place form...

...throws Potters Hedger into the mix.

Our pace analyser suggests that leading is the best policy...

...but anything aside from being held up should be fine for both win & place purposes, which leads us to the past running styles of the five horses under consideration...

...which suggests Giovanni Charge is certainly in a good place to launch a bid for the frame, but Small Present has work to do, having been held up twice in his last three outings.

Summary

No apologies for brevity today, as it's not one of our 'free' races, but you really should be able to whizz through a card as quickly as I have here (this was intentional!), so let's quickly re-assess...

Form : Small Present, Giovanni Change & Potters Hedger were the positives.
Instant Expert : Small Present, Giovanni Change &  partially Potters Hedger were the positives.
Pace : Giovanni Change was the positive, but Small Present was a notable negative.

I can get 11/1 about Giovanni Change with Bet365 right now (3.20pm), so I'll have a small E/W play here. He was a back to back winner here in the spring off marks of 114 and 121 and although unsuccessful since off marks in the low 130's, his mark is now dropping and he's 4lbs lower than when third over C&D (beaten by less than 4 lengths) in July, so could well get closer today.

As for the winner, I can't get away from the 7/4 Jesuitique and although I'm not a fan of backing shorties, he might well be better than those odds!

Racing Insights, 17th November 2011

Did you know that the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one?

You do, now! It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

Did you also know that we make this fantastic report FREE to ALL readers EVERY Wednesday? Well, it's true and we supplement this offering with yet another selection of 'free' races of the day, which are as follows...

  • 1.05 Warwick
  • 1.40 Warwick
  • 2.25 Hexham
  • 6.30 Dundalk

My fairly stringent settings for the TS report haven't produced much to work with and with the two Warwick races only having a combined 11 runners, we're heading to the North East, where it'll be T-shirt weather for the locals attending the 2.25 Hexham, a 13-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Chase worth a mere £2,886. The going is expected to be good to soft and the two mile left handed contest will feature 12 fences...

Izzy's Champion tops the Geegeez SR figures and is the form horse here with a win and a place from his last two starts, whilst Beat Box has failed to complete either of his last two. He's also one of three runners not seen in the last seven months, as he comes back from a 220 day absence, joined by Rollerruler (221d) and Southeast Rose (343d). The latter alongside Without Conviction are the only two females in the race and she is also the only previous course and distance winner, achieved two starts and a day short of a year ago. Beat Box is the only other previous winner at the trip.

Five of this field drop down from Class 4 action, namely Donladd, Chesterville, Barnay, Broomsfield Kan and Without Conviction and the latter makes a handicap debut here whilst the former is probably the pick on trainer/jockey form but is one of three chase debutants, the others being Very patient and Without Conviction, as shown here on Instant Expert...

...but if I'm honest, that's not telling us much else other than that I'd want to eliminate Fightfortheroses based on making the frame just once in twelve Class 5 outings over fences. I think that the sire stats might tell us a bit more...

...and with there being much more data available, we're able to make some assumptions about the runners. As i need to be strict and whittle the numbers down, Fightfortheroses (#8) and Challow (#13) leave us here, based on the line of red for their sires over fences. Which then leads us to pace, a factor that is still very relevant in non-Flat races. The word pace can be a bit of a misnomer, we're not looking for the fastest horse, it's not a 5f sprint at Chelmsford, we're looking at which horse(s) run at the best pace to win during a race ie those who judge the pace best.

Thankfully we have lots of stats to back us up here and ideally in this sort of contest...

...we're looking for a horse with an average pace score of around 2.75 or greater from both a win and a place perspective, but it's clear that the further forward you race, the better your chances are said to be. We log all runners pace scores, of course and here are the last four outings for our field...

So, I want the top seven from that list going forward and they'll be the ones I want to focus on. I may as well quickly look at them in pace order to save confusion, starting with...

Chesterville : 1 from 19 career record doesn't scream winner, especially at 0/12 over fences, but was a decent runner-up at Tramore two starts ago before a UK and yard debut at Sedgefield LTO. He faded badly and went down by 21 lengths and a mark of 105 is probably too high, as he was off 94 two starts ago.

Rollerruler : had made the frame once in 8 over hurdles and once in 7 over fences. hasn't been seen since being pulled up 4 out seven months ago and as beaten by 45 lengths the time before. Down 5lbs and making a yard debut, but will probably need the run, even if the yard are 20 from 83 in Hexham handicap chases since 2012.

Southeast Rose : relatively new to chasing, finishing 614 so far, including a course and distance win here this time last year. Still unexposed and receives weight form most of her rivals, she could be in the mix.

Donladd : makes a chasing bow after an 11 length defeat over hurdles at Carlisle last time out. That wasn't a bad effort after 192 days off track and only weakened out of it late on. His record over hurdles this year is 221P4 and the drop in trip and class should help for a trainer and jockey in good nick...

Barnay : had a good winter last time around, finishing 3121 over hurdles from late November to late February, but struggled at Sedgefield on chase debut LTO. He was beaten by 32 lengths as 7th of 10, but faded before 3 out over 4f further than today after a 199-day layoff. Should come on for the run, but a mark of 104 makes life tough, but you can't argue with the form of his handler and rider...

Without Conviction : a lightly raced 6 yr old mare who made the frame in both of her bumper runs and also in the middle one of her three efforts over hurdles. Probably needed the run after 195 days off when beaten over hurdles at Kelso last month and now makes a chase debut down in trip and class. An opening mark of 98 doesn't leave much room for error here and others hold more appeal.

Izzy's Champion : the form horse in the race, gets weight from most of her rivals and tops the geegeez ratings. She was game when holding on to win at Musselburgh last time out despite having to do too much too soon and although up five pounds, should go well again here, especially if not going at full tilt for as long this time.

Summary

Of those likeliest to race forward of midfield, the two I like best are Donladd and Izzy's Champion and with the latter being in better form, more experienced over fences and carrying 20lbs less, I have to side with Izzy's Champion at 5/1, which I think is a fair price when i was expecting to see him as a 4/1 favourite.

Much will depend on (a) him not being too far off the pace and (b) Donladd's jumping on chase debut. Donladd comes from a yard in form and renowned for their jumpers, but it's just the 12 stone weight on chase debut that worries me here, so I've cautiously got him as second best. He's also 5/1 (I was expecting/hoping for 6's), but that's not E/W territory for me. If I was to suggest an E/W or place bet on something a bit longer, then Barnay might fit the bill. The early market doesn't fancy him at 16/1, but he ran well this time last year, likes to get on with it and his yard and jockey have some good numbers behind them.

 

Racing Insights, 16th November 2021

The Shortlist is a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is (and has always been) that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply and here's The Shortlist for Tuesday 16/11...

In addition to this report, we also have the following free races for all readers...

  • 12.15 Limerick
  • 12.40 Fakenham
  • 3.00 Fakenham
  • 3.15 Lingfield

Of the two on The Shortlist report, African Dance is of more interest to me than Crixus's Escape based on the scores and as his race looks better than any of our four freebies, I'm going to focus on African Dance, who runs in the 2.50 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m4½f on Good to Soft (soft in places) ground...

So, to African Dance, a 6 yr old gelding who has only been out of the frame once in six career starts, but that was, unfortunately, last out when he could only manage fourth of six in a soft ground, Class 3 contest over hurdles at Plumpton at this trip back in early April. He was beaten by the best part of 30 lengths whilst wearing a first time tongue tie. The tie is still in place, but he is dropping in class here.

He arrives here some 226 days later to make not only a handicap debut, but also his chasing bow, but after finishing 3rd of 8 in a bumper on debut on Valentine's Day 2020, his record over hurdles reads 31314. He's 1 from 1 on Good to Soft and has finished 331 on soft. His record at 2m3½f to 2m5f reads 1314 and he's 3131 at Class 4. He's 1 from 1 in November, acquired when winning a 2m4f maiden hurdle (C4) over 2m4f on good to soft ground at Sedgefield a year and 4 days ago and he's 31314 going left handed.

Here's the above stats as seen on Instant Expert...

As he has no jumps form yet, it's worth looking at his sire, Shirocco (GER), whose handicap chasers are 22 from 101 (21.8% SR) since the start of 2020 and those include...

  • 21 from 78 (26.9%) at trips ranging from 2m3½f to 3m½f
  • 12 from 43 (27.9%) at Class 4
  • 10 from 46 (21.7%) in Novice races
  • and 10 from 39 (25.6%) on Good to Soft/Soft ground

...suggesting he should take to chasing well enough, whilst his yard is also in fine form with their last 20 winners coming from just 59 runners (33.9% SR) and with 16 of the 39 "losers" also making the frame, that's a place strike rate of some 61%, all promising stuff.

The pace stats from his last four races...

...say he likes to be prominent and his other two starts were mid-division/prominent type runs, but with others in this field also liking to get on with it, the average scores suggest he's likely to be in the second grouping behind probable leaders Animore and Bellaney Gem. A quick glance at the past results for similar races here...

...suggests that second ranking is definitely the place to be for win and place percentages.

Summary

As per The Shortlist report, conditions are set to suit African Dance, but that's all based on hurdling form and he's never tackled a fence for real yet. However, his yard is in great form, it's a good jumpers' yard and the sire stats for chasers are very promising. I actually think if ready after a lay-off, he has an excellent chance here, but will have to catch and pass Animore to do so.

I've just (5.10pm) taken my first look at the market and Animore is indeed the 7/4 favourite, which is no surprise as he's 3212 in his last four over fences and our inexperienced chaser African Dance is as big as 9/2 right now.

There's every possibility that local mare Animore sets the tempo of the race and holds on, but was caught and passed over C&D LTO, made a few jumping errors and is now a pound heavier. On that basis, I'd not want to be lumping on at 7/4, but I will have a small wager on African Dance at 9/2 who surely isn't on a 650-mile round trip for nothing, whilst E/W backers might look at the other front-runner Bellaney Gem to cling on to a place at 8/1.

 

Racing Insights, 15th November 2021

The racecard PACE tab is Monday's free feature and this will be available to ALL readers for ALL races, including the following 'free' races of the day...

  • 2.45 Plumpton
  • 3.00 Leicester

Not much racing to go at on Monday (can't remember such a sparse weekday for), but we'll take a look at the first of those two races above, the 2.45 Plumpton, which is a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4½f on good ground. They'll go left handed and tackle 12 hurdles in a bid to land the £3,594 first prize and here's the card...

Manning Estate is 3lbs lower than his last win, achieved back in February 2020 over 3m½f at Doncaster, but hasn't really run well in seven starts since, failing to make the frame in any and going down by an average 34 lengths each race and his yard in 0/23 in the last month.

Soldier On Parade is an OK hurdler, I suppose and is often there or thereabouts, but doesn't seem to be able to win many. His results show a lack of consistency and if he isn't fairly close to the winner, he's invariably well off the pace, as shown when 5th of 6 last time out, beaten by more than 65 lengths.

Glashas Peak is the only mare in the race and she has yet to make the frame after seven attempts (2 X NHF, 5 x hrd). She was going well enough last time out here at Plumpton, though, but was brought down at the 9th. Others hold more appeal here.

Jens Boy tends to lead or race prominently before running out of steam and finds little late on, but has 2 wins and 2 places from 13 efforts over hurdles.
Ran well here at Plumpton LTO, when although only 4th of 12, was less than 2.5 lengths off the pace, clearly benefiting from not being asked to run 3m+. Down another half furlong here, could very well step forward again.

Cremant has made the frame in each of his last three starts, all off a mark of 107 and now 2lbs lower here, you'd expect him to be involved once again. A former Irish PTP winner, he did also win over hurdles around this time last year. Trip is ideal, be he'd probably have wanted it softer.

Mr Yeats probably looks the one to beat in a modest contest, but only got off the mark at the 11th time of asking when winning at Wincanton a month ago in a Class 4 handicap. He then dropped a class but went up 3lbs and won again at Huntingdon six days ago and he's now back up in class and up 7lbs for that second win. That definitely makes life tougher, but he could be the one here.

Harry Hazard hasn't made the frame in any of his eight previous starts, hasn't raced since 22nd October 2020 (only 3 runs in last 31 months), hasn't got within 17 lengths of a winner and races from outside the handicap here. He also makes a yard debut for a trainer with 2 wins from 40 since the start of April. As for the positives? I'm sure he's a lovely horse.

We've a modest bunch here who made the frame just 27 times from 102 attempts (26.%), winning just 11 (10.8%) of them, but that's across all spheres. Instant Expert tells us how they've performed in similar conditions to today's race...

As expected, the win percentages aren't great, but Mr Yeats and Jens Boy were probably the two to take from that graphic, whilst based on place form, you'd probably add Cremant to that pair. The pace stats here suggest that mid-division or further back is the best place to launch a challenge from...

...although prominent runners do make the frame quite often. The one I thought stood out so far, Mr Yeats has raced in mid-div and as a hold-up horse in the two races he has won recently...

...so that should stand him in good stead here. Cremant who also looked good on Instant Expert is another who gets waited with, but Jen's Boy likes to lead. That said, he's down in trip and almost held on last time out.

Summary

A pretty modest race if truth be told and although has hasn't had much of a breather and he's up 7lbs, it's hard to see Mr Yeats not completing a fairly quick hat-trick. We're not getting rich at bet 365's 9/4 odds, but they're probably about right, if not a little long.

As for the place(s), I'm referring back to Instant Exert here and it's between Jens Boy and Cremant and I think the latter edges it on form, Instant Expert and pace. There's no disputing that he'd prefer the ground a bit softer but with Jens Boy not being guaranteed an easy lead with Soldier on Parade around, I'm going with the 9/2 Cremant as second best.

Racing Insights, 13th November 2021

The Trainer Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report brings  the form of trainers and jockeys together into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users, because some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

This TJC report is totally FREE to all readers every Saturday alongside our free races of the day, which will be...

  • 1.05 Cheltenham
  • 1.40 Cheltenham
  • 2.00 Wetherby
  • 2.58 Punchestown
  • 3.50 Uttoxeter
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

As is often the case, my settings for the TJC report are a little strict and I've no qualifiers to share with you, so I'm going to take a look at the 2.00 Wetherby from the 'free' list. It's a Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase worth just shy of £7,000. These eight runners (hope it stays that for E/W bettors) will run left handed to tackle sixteen fences over 2m3½f on good to soft (good in places) ground...

Four of the field have won at least one of their last five outings with bottom weight Northern Bound the clear pick on finishing places alone. he does, However, step up in class, whilst the other four class movers (Schiehallion Munro, Cracking Destiny, Topofthecotswolds & Palmers Hill) all drop down two levels from Class 1 (Listed, Listed, Gr 3 & Gr 3 respectively) LTO. Palmers hill is the only one without a course nor a distance win and the top two in the weights have achieved both feats albeit not at the same time.

Return Ticket has won four of ten over fences since the switch to Rebecca Menzies yard in the summer of 2020 and last scored over 1m7f two starts ago. That was here at Wetherby off a mark of 136 and this looks a tougher race. That said, the extra distance might help him, as he has won by 40 lengths over 2m3½f and by 30 lengths over 2m4½f already this year.

Schiehallion Munro has made the frame in 7 of 9 starts over fences, but was last of six, 39 lengths off the leader at Ayr last time out. In fairness, that was a Listed event that had followed a hat-trick of runner-up finishes that has driven his mark up to 138, some 7lbs above his last win. That extra weight and the effect of a 7 month break are enough to dissuade me here.

Cracking Destiny is on a good run of consistent form and is a solid Class 2 chaser, which should stand him in good stead in a C3 contest! He ran really well here over course and distance last time out, finishing second of ten in a Listed race a fortnight ago and a similar run here puts him right in contention.

Marracudja has won two of his last five, but closer inspection shows those to races only had 1 runner and 3 runners with him being the 11/10 fav in the second of them. He's not getting better at 10 yrs of age and suffered a 62 length defeat when last home of six at Musselburgh a fortnight ago. He's not one to hang your hat on.

Topofthecotswolds won a Class 4 chase and was a runner-up at Class 2 either side of a fall at Aintree earlier in the year, but has been on the wane since. A 38 lengths defeat in June preceded him being pulled up at Market Rasen in July. That was the last we've seen of him and he's likely to need a run after four months off.

Palmers Hill has made just one start over fences and has only raced five times in the last 44 months, but won at Cheltenham after 288 days off, was second at Kempton after 461 days off and was fourth at Taunton on chase debut after a 292 day absence, so the current 241 day layoff shouldn't be the reason for him not winning here. He ran really well in the Gr3 Coral Cup over hurdles at this year's Cheltenham Festival and a similar level of aptitude over fences would go a long way here.

Game of War won back to back races, albeit 8 months apart in Ireland back in 2018, but hasn't fared too well since. His last four runs have seen him fall, then be beaten by 68, 55 and 39 lengths, the latest being his UK debut and first run for his new handler. I'd be massively surprised if he wasn't last or second last here.

Northern Bound lurks at the bottom of the weights despite being three from three since returning to chasing less than seven weeks ago. That has pushed his mark from a lowly 109 to today's 123, which is 6lbs higher than his win at Kelso LTO when he scored much more easily than the official length and a quarter margin might suggest. Jockey Kevin Brogan eases the burden with his 3lb claim and having a claimer on board suits him, as he's 5 from 9 with a claimer and just 1 from 11 without!

At this point, if I was to split the field in half, I'd want Northern Bound, Cracking Destiny, Return Ticket and probably Palmers Hill on my side and the inclusion of the latter two of those four possibly says more about the lack of quality elsewhere than it does about the pair themselves.

Instant Expert gives us a quick, clear overview of past form under today's conditions...

...where you can't help but be drawn to Northern Bound at the bottom of the list. yes, he has no Class 3 experience, but has won comfortably enough at C4 that you'd expect him to step up again. He has four wins on this going, matched or bettered only by Return Ticket and Cracking Destiny. The latter hasn't gone well at Class 3, but is 2 from 5 at Class 2, so it's not an ability issue there and he has the most wins at this trip along with the standout Northern Bound.

Northern Bound tends to race mid-division or slightly more prominent...

...and I'd expect Schiehallion Munro to be setting the pace here with the likes of Marracudja and Palmers Hill towards the back of the field. The obvious caveat re Palmers Hill is that he's only been chasing once and his tactics might be changed here. If his trainer has access to the Geegeez Pace Analyser, then he probably will be invited to race more prominently, as similar races here have benefited runners racing as far forward as they can...

Summary

After doing my brief resumés of the runners, I decided that I wanted to be with Northern Bound, Cracking Destiny, Return Ticket and probably Palmers Hill. I still feel that way after Instant Expert and the pace analysis.

Northern Bound ticks all the boxes, great form, good IE scores, races prominently, carrying bottom weight etc etc and has to be the one to beat, surely? The one I'm omitting is Palmers Hill, purely because there are too many unknowns, but there's still something pecking at my head that he might well be the surprise package here, but it's equally possible that he's nothing special, so he's out.

That leaves us with Cracking Destiny and Return Ticket for the places. The latter has it on the resumé, the former has it on Instant Expert, but with three scores of 3 or more on pace, Return Ticket just edges it, but I think both should make the frame.

Bookies time...Northern Bound is, quite predictably, the early (3.45pm) favourite and the 9/4 offered by Hills isn't particularly generous, but he's the one to beat here. My placers are 7/1 and 4/1 respectively so no E/W action yet, but if Return Ticket was to drift a point or two, then I'd be in/on.

 

 

Racing Insights, 12th November 2021

The Horses For Courses (H4C) report does pretty much what the name suggests and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion. As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting.

As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

Based on my own preferred settings, here's how my H4C report looks for Friday...

As well as having that to consider, there are also the following free races of the day...

  • 1.45 Cheltenham
  • 4.00 Cheltenham
  • 4.45 Dundalk
  • 5.30 Kempton

Both the NH races at HQ look decent enough, but I want to consider the chances of the two qualifiers from my H4C report, starting with...

...King of the South, a 4yr old gelding who goes in the 12.50 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W (tapeta) Handicap over 1m4½f (2738 yards and is worth £10800. Here's his racecard entry...

As you can see, the yard is in good nick and has a decent record at this track, helped of course by this horse's results of 11213 here, all in handicaps. He has never raced here at Class 2, but has won at one level lower. He's 2 from 2 here in November/December and 3 from 4 in fields of 8 or more runners. He's 2 from 2 over 1m2f here, but only 1 from 3 over this trip, but has won both starts at 21-25 days after his last run. Tom Marquand takes the ride for the first time, but he's no mug, he's in good for and has good numbers here in the North East.

King of the South could be excused for needing the run when last home of seven at Doncaster, beaten by some 37 lengths over 1m4f on soft/heavy ground for his Class 2 bow three weeks ago. He hadn't been seen for seven months and had never raced on turf before. Now with the benefit of a run, we should see him in a better light back under more familiar circumstances, as his A/W form looks like this...

and under today's conditions...

He'll come out of stall 3 today, which is probably one or two boxes lower than  ideal...

...but certainly not impossible, as that 1 win from 46 for stall 1 above was when KotS won here over C&D in February, so never say never! As for running style, he has tried several approaches of late...

...but is rarely, if ever, the actual pacemaker in a race, which is just as well, as leaders have struggled here in the past...

Prominence seems to be the best place to sit and with two 3's in his last four races (when 2nd then 1st over C&D), I'd expect him to run that way today and as stall 3 is pretty much on the cusp of a middle draw, a prominent run from that position is the most successful pace/draw combo here...

All of which should set King of the South up for a big run an hour and three quarters before we see the 5 yr old gelding, Kind Review tackles the 2.35 Newcastle, a big-field (14 run!), Class 3, 5f, 3yo+ handicap worth £6,281. He's not in the best of form, I'm afraid as shown on the racecard...

Kind Review has raced 31 times already with 16 of those coming on turf where his record is far inferior to his 5 wins and 5 further places on the All-Weather, which have all been here at Newcastle in handicaps ranging from today's 5f up to a mile and at Classes 2 to 6. With today's race in mind, his Newcastle record includes 4 wins ands 4 places from 12 under today's jockey, 3 wins and 2 places from 7 as a 5 yr old, 3 wins and a place from 5 over this 5f C&D and one win from three cracks at Class 3 handicaps.

Much of his recent poor form has come on turf, but it has to be said that since finishing 1211 in four starts here in the spring culminating in a Class 4 win off a mark of 81 that he shas struggled in his two visits.

He was 9th of 14 over 5f at Class 2, beaten by just over two lengths in June off a mark of 90, before dropping down a class and 4lbs to race over 6f here in a Class 3 last month. Sadly he just wasn't at it that day, coming home second to last of fourteen, seven and a half lengths adrift.

He's now down another couple of pounds, back in trip and it is hoped that this will help him today. It should also be noted that he runs from stall 2 here and those two recent losses came from stalls 12 and 13 of 14, but more on that shortly after we've considered his overall A/W record...

and under today's conditions...

...which only really suggests that he'd probably want the track to ride a little slower. He's only 3lbs worse off than his last win and it is hope d that he'll fare better from his low draw than he has from out wide of late.

...although based on the above stats, I'm not entirely sure that's the case here over 5f. Mind you, I'm not a big believer in the draw being a massive influence in a straight 5f race and that race tactics/positioning aka pace plays a bigger role in determining the outcome. Kind review tends to race prominently as shown here...

and based on the pace data from past races, I think he'd be better off pushing on...

So, the raw stats say he's not well drawn and doesn't have the right pace profile, so the 6.67% strike rate for low drawn prominent runners below won't come as too much of a surprise and does tend to suggest that he's going to struggle...

Summary

Both horses have excellent records at Newcastle and both should run better than last time out.

King of the South needed (and got) a run after seven months off in a tough race at Doncaster, which was ground breaking for him re: class and surface and now back on preferred ground, should go well again. Bet365 are best priced at 7/2 (as of 6.55pm) and I think that's more than fair, I had him at 3's, so I'm happy to play there. I also liked Nicholas T in this race and whilst not an obvious winner, could well outrun his 14/1 odds as a decent E/W bet.

As for Kind Review, I think this race is too tough for him and even if conditions are better than LTO, he looks like struggling and at 20/1 the bookies might have overpriced him, but he still wouldn't be in my top 4 for an E/W bet. If I was playing here, I like Night On Earth, but 6/1 is a bit tight for me in a competitive 14-runner handicap. The 10/1 offered by bet365, however, about Indian Sounds is enough to draw me in for another E/W wager.

Racing Insights, 11th November 2021

The Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards, because it is able to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible view, covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage.

PLEASE NOTE: Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures and where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 12.37 Sedgefield
  • 1.30 Taunton
  • 2.10 Market Rasen
  • 6.30 Chelmsford

And we're off to Essex, where some big name trainers are represented in the 6.30 Chelmsford, a 6-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W (polytrack-std) handicap over 1m6f worth over £20,600...

Marshall Plan is the only one without a win in his last five outings and of the other five runners, only Roseabad isn't an LTO winner. That said, the latter is the only runner dropping down from Class 1 action to run here, whilst the former did at least race in Class 3 company just over a fortnight ago, whilst the four LTO winners all ran at Class 4 and now step up two levels.

Napper Tandy's LTO win was his handicap debut back in early April and hasn't been since, Ace Rothstein has had eight weeks off since his win, but the rest of the field have raced in the last three weeks or so. Roseabad is the only female in the race and along with Liverpool Knight, they're the only two to have won over 1m6f, whilst none of the field have been to Chelmsford before.

Roseabad is a useful filly, who is probably better than her last run would suggest, as she came home 5th of 12 beaten by 9.5 lengths over 1m5f at Lingfield a fortnight ago. In her defence, that was not only a Listed race, but also her A/W debut and she can be expected to improve for both that experience and the drop in class here. She's only 4lbs higher than her latest win at Carlisle in August and could go well here at a decent price.

Marshall Plan has finished 31234 in five A/W starts to date and although fourth of six at Kempton (1m4f) a fortnight ago, he was beaten by less then two lengths having been outpaced in the closing stages, suggesting a further trip might benefit him. Team Gosden have reached for first-time cheekpieces here and if they do the trick, he could well be there or thereabouts, as he usually is. A 1lb drop in weight doesn't help much, but it certainly doesn't hinder his chances.

Ace Rothstein is two from three this year, but that includes two from two on turf. His A/W form reads 435 and I suspect he might find this tough up 6lbs, up two classes and up half a mile, but if he overcomes those factors, he'll deserve to win for a yard who have done well here of late and who have a good relationship with today's jockey...

Napper Tandy produced his best run to date when landing a 4-runner handicap at Newcastle over 1m4½f last time out on handicap debut, keeping on well to win by the thick end of two lengths. Hasn't been seen since in over 7 months but the Balding yard are no mugs and he could go well again here off just 4lbs higher under an in-form jockey...

Liverpool Knight also produced his best effort so far when winning LTO, although his Class 4 success was just ten days ago at Wolverhampton when sent off as the 15/8 fav over today's trip in a 10-runner contest. he was very comfortable that day, but is now penalised to the tune of 6lbs. That said, it might take more than 6lbs to stop him if he runs the same way here.

Bascule is two from two on the A/W since finishing second of four (1.5 lengths) over 1m2f on good ground at Windsor at the start of August. He comes here just over three weeks after back to back wins over 1m4f in the space of 19 days in September/October and although up another 6lbs for that last run, still receives weight all round and has to be in with a shout again if handling another step up in trip. His yard haven't had the best of it recently (just 2 from 41 in the last six weeks), but his stablemates have won often enough here at Chelmsford, the jockey has a good record for the yard, who do well with stayers and his sire's offspring are 13 from 51 on the A/W this year...

This sextet are not massively experienced with just 48 combined races under their belts, but with 21 placed efforts (43.75% SR) including 11 wins (22.9%), they've equipped themselves well so far. All six have at least one win and all have made the frame at least twice and overall here's how they've done under today's conditions...

As expected, there's not a lost to work from there from either a win or a place perspective from past A/W runs. None have raced at Class 2 before, but Roseabad ran a Listed race LTO and that was over 1m5f, which is further than any of the others have travelled on the A/W aside from Liverpool Knight's win at this trip. Liverpool Knight is probably the one to watch so far, based on both his last two runs and also the Instant Expert figures.

As none of these six have been to this venue before and they've little collective experience at 1m6f, I suspect more will depend on how they approach the race rather than where they're drawn as I firmly believe that the length of the race and the small size of the field both negate the impact of any potential draw bias and this is borne out by the stall stats below...

Yes, stall 2 has only 4 wins from 48, but shares 16 wins with stall 3, so the data for #2 is probably just an anomalous quirk as the others all have similar returns, so it's going to boil down to race tactics. We know from past experiences that leaders do well over short distances here on the Chelmo Speedway, but what about these longer trips?

Well it's a case of plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose as our friends across the Channel might say....

Basically, the trip has changed dramatically from the sprints up to 1m6f, but the leaders still come out on top. The difference isn't as marked and those waited with for a run win as often as par would expect, but I'd still want to be upfront here at Chelmsford and ideally drawn high, because...

We don't have a lot of data on past running styles for these horses, but they've all had at least four runs and based on their last four efforts, here's how we think they might approach the contest...

Napper Tandy and Roseabad look like they'll set the fractions early doors, which then creates the problem of a long layoff and a rise in class, weight and trip for the former, whilst the latter is stepping down in class and raced over a similar trip LTO.

Marshall Plan, Bascule and Ace Rothstein look like they'll be the second rank with the in-form Liverpool Knight sitting and waiting. He's not exactly a hold-up horse all the time (he led four starts back), but has come from the back in two of his last three and could be dangerous late on.

Summary

I think pace is more important than draw here and I want to focus on the two pacesetters and what would be classed as the hold-up horse. Of the two likeliest to set the pace of the contest, the class-dropping Roseabad is more appealing to Napper Tandy, who might need the run and is up in class, trip and weight. But, what of likely favourite, the in-form Liverpool Knight?

Well, he's arguably the best in the race on form, but all his form is at Classes 4 and 5, all his form is on tapeta and he's up to a mark of 84 and didn't go anywhere as near as well off 83 and 85 and with all that in mind, I think I'd rather back Roseabad each way at 14/1 (Bet365) than Liverpool Knight at sub-2/1. I see Napper Tandy getting cuaght and possibly run out of it, but he could well be best of the rest, but a top price of 4/1 isn't "saver bet" material for me.

Racing Insights, 10th November 2021

The Trainer Statistics report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course since 2009, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

This fantastic report is FREE to ALL readers EVERY Wednesday and is complemented this week with the following free races of the day...

  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 3.50 Dundalk
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.30 Kempton

My settings for the TS report are fairly strict, so I've no qualifiers to share with you today, so I'm going to cover the first of the free races, a big-field stayers' handicap over fences aka the 1.30 Bangor, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over three miles on good to soft ground, that will be soft in places. It's worth over £13.5k to one of these...

It certainly looks a competitive affair and picking a winner might be tricky, but with most bookies paying four places and some paying five, I'm hopeful of at least finding a couple of E/W angles today.

As most of you are probably aware, once you get past 10 or 11 eleven runners in a race, I'm stepping outside my comfort zone, so I'm going to try and whittle the field down pretty quickly before looking at a smaller number of runners to choose from and with that in mind, I'm immediately discounting...

  • Belami des Pictons, because he has been off the track for 641 days and hasn't won any race since February 2017 and has lost his last three by a combined 60 lengths.
  • Beware The Bear, whose two runs in the spring of this year saw him last of seven, beaten by 71 lengths and then he was pulled up next/last time out. Has since been shipped out of Nicky Henderson's yard.
  • Bobo Mac, who hasn't won a race in two years, but is still 10lbs higher than that win and now steps up in class.
  • Late Romantic, whose yard looks worst off based on both recent form and their record at this venue.

All of which reduces my field down to ten runners, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown on Instant Expert...

...where what I need is at least one win under at least one of today's race conditions based on going, class, course and distance and beacuse I wan't to show you how quickly you can eliminate runners from consideration, I'm now taking out Captain Chaos, Windsor Avenue, Blaklion (even if he did win the 2o16 RSA Chase) and Captain Tommy, leaving my racecard looking like this...

And it's from these six, that I want to reduce it down to four or five possibles for a win or E/W bet. There is, of course, the danger that I've already discarded the winner and I end up with no bet, but that's perfectly fine, as there's another 28 races and 335 runners to consider away from this race!

So, I now turn to the pace stats for both this type of race...

...and also for my sixrunners' last four outings...

The pace analyser says we should avoid those who'll try to make the running and I think that rules Eclair Surf out of my thoughts now. Prominent runners fare best, which is good news for both Legends Gold and Snow Leopardess, but doesn't rule any of the others out, although I'd not want Falco Blitz to go off too hard.

Summary

We've pretty quickly gone from 14 to 5 and in alphabetical order, we have...

  • Canelo fell at the Chair in this year's Grand National (but so have many!) last time out, but in the the year or so prior to that had finished 1012143 over fences showing great consistency including a grade 3 success at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Now only 3lbs heavier than that win and look suited by trip and ground conditions, should have a good chance here if ready to fire first up.
  • Falco Blitz is only 7 yrs old and has just six chase starts under his bely, making the frame in half of them and winning once. His best form has been at Class 3 and has mainly raced over shorter trips than today. Has a tendency to go off a little quickly and jumps left. He definitely has potential, but I'd say he's the weakest of my five.
  • Legends Gold won over fences at the first time of asking last October, despite not having raced for 8 months and this 7 yr old mare returns from a similar absence here. She ran really well to finish second of fourteen over 3m4f last time out, but has won (Ludlow hurdles) over today's trip and also here at Bangor (2m3½f hurdle) in the past. Should make the frame all things considered.
  • Sam's Adventure had a strange end to last season with Class 2 wins at Haydock (Tommy Whittle) and Newcastle (Eider) sandwiching the Peter Marsh at Haydock where he unseated his rider, a feat he then repeated in his last outing, the Scottish National at Ayr. Has serious ability, but probably prefers further than this and would want "worse" ground. Three miles on good to soft/soft is hardly a sprint, but he'd be better off with more of a stamina challenge and this might be too sharp for him.
  • Snow Leopardess is lightly raced (15 starts) for a 9 yr old and this mare took to fences well last season, winning a Class 2 on handicap debut at Haydock (3m1½f, soft) almost a year ago. She was then just three quarters of a length behind Canelo in the Gr3 Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day and is now 3lbs better off with the winner, even if the form from that race hasn't really amounted to much. That said, she was a decent enough fourth in a Grade 2 at this year's Cheltenham Festival and this should be much easier, even if she'd probably want the ground to be a bit quicker.

Bear with me now, as this might not come across as I intend it, but I'll try...

Of my five, I really like Canelo and at 12/1 with Hills (paying 4 places), he's a definite E/W bet for me, but Snow Leopardess is probably the one to beat, now 3lbs better off with Canelo after being beaten by just three parts of a length on Boxing Day. However, Snow Leopardess is 'only' 5/1 and I think that's a little shy in such a competitive race. I might have had a dabble at 6's or bigger, but I'll hang fire on her for now.

As for the other three, Falco Blitz is too short for me to back at 17/2 with the reservations I have about him, Sam's Adventure is teasingly priced at 12's and could well make the frame but he'd prefer more of a stamina test, but Legends Gold should be good for a place and although 10/1 is as short as I'd be comfortable with about him, I'll have an E/W tickle there, too.