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Stat of the Day, 18th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.35 Bath : Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in last, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, drew clear final furlong, won readily by two lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner...  

Why?

A very much in-form 5 yr old mare who'll feel right at home here today if nothing else. Her last three races have all been here at Brighton, all over 6f, all on good to firm ground at increasingly better quality (C6, C5 and then C4 LTO), resulting in 3 wins!

Conditions are slightly different in that she's dropping back slightly in trip and racing on slightly slower ground and although there's no science/hard facts involved here, I think from a stamina point of view, the two could cancel each other out. What I do know is that she's dropping back in class today, which has to be a positive.

Lewis Edmunds rode her for the very first time last time out (31 days ago) and he retains the ride today, so there's another positive there and stats-wise, I'm going to keep it relatively short but hopefully sweet, as I focus on...

...trainer Chris Dwyer and specifically his Flat handicappers (logically) who are 30 from 190 (15.8% SR) for 55pts (+28.9% ROI) over the last three (inc. this one) seasons. Those are strong numbers from blindly betting all runners, but I know you wouldn't want to do that, so here are some ways you could reduce your outlay, whilst maintaining/improving the SR and/or ROI...

  • those who last raced 3 to 8 weeks ago are 16/84 (19.1%) for 64.5pts (+76.8%) you could, I suppose, stop here!
  • females are 15/82 (18.3%) for 48.8pts (+59.5%)
  • from August to October inclusive : 16/79 (20.3%) for 77.9pts (+98.6%)
  • this season alone : 13/67 (19.4%) for 44.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those dropping down a class are 9/37 (24.3%) for 62.5pts (+169%)
  • those ridden by Lewis Edmunds : 7/32 (21.9%) for 42.7pts (+133.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/26 (19.2%) for 6.97pts (+26.8%)
  • in October only : 4/17 (23.5%) for 29.1pts (+171.3%)
  • and here at Brighton : 4/12 (33.3%) for 3.5pts (+29.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 26th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,782.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 66.2% units went through – 3/1* - 6/1 – 8/1

Race 2: 28.3% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 20/1 – 13/2 (4/1)

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 20/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 11/4* - 8/1

Race 5: 4.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 16/1 – 11/1 (3/1)

Race 6: 12.0% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 15/2, 12/1 (5/1)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 5 (Outofthequestion) & 3 (Kings Inn)

Leg 2 (6.40): 9 (Iconic Choice), 3 (Canford Dancer) & 8 (Fast Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.10): 8 (Lolita Polido), 12 (Spanish Aria) & 2 (Cottontail)

Leg 4 (7.40): 4 (Tuff Rock) & 1 (Teodoro)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 5 (8.10): 4 (Carlini), 3 (Enzo) & 5 (Dukeofwallingford)

Leg 6 (8.45): 2 (Swanton Blue), 6 (Yogiyogiyogi) & 9 (Global Excel)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.10: Starting point to the meeting; there are no course winners in the Placepot races tonight, lest you thought I had forgotten to include the service!  Secondly; if you were trying to find the results of the corresponding meeting from last year, you need to go to the Thursday of the same week (29th). Upwards and onward by informing that four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven renewals of this event and the trend looks certain to gain momentum this year with the likes of OUTOFTHEQUESTION and KINGS INN having been declared by their dual purpose trainers, namely Alan King and Paul Nicholls respectively.  Hopefully, just the two ‘selections’ will be enough to progress through to the second leg of our favourite wager, this being a potential ‘dead eight’ event.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites (via four renewals) has secured a Placepot position (no winners).

 

6.40: ICONIC CHOICE seems to logical place to start after a decent effort at Haydock at the first time of asking when closing on the three principles close home without the jockey using his whip.  Michael Bell expected better of his Pastoral Pursuits filly FAST ENDEAVOUR from what we have witnessed thus far but it is still early doors in her career, whereby another Placepot position cannot be ruled out of the equation.  CANFORD DANCER was reluctant at the stalls and raced wide when making her debut, finishing best of the newcomers. 14/1 looks a big enough price about the Richard Hughes raider in this grade/company.

Favourite factor:  Both of the (4/1 & 9/4) favourites have finished out with the washing to date.

 

7.10: COTTONTAIL looks a tad too big at 14/1 in a place this morning, now stepping up a couple of furlongs following her debut over the minimum trip.  That said, there was plenty to like about LOLITA POLIDO at the first time of asking at Kempton too, especially with the form having been franked to decent effect.  John Gosden reports that SPANISH ARIA has a little bit of temperament about her but John is one to enthuse over such mannerisms rather than worry about them.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

7.40: There is a plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue about TUFF ROCK and TEODORO as the heat begins to kick in already this morning on another wonderful summer day in Bristol.  The race is likely to be run to suit David Simcock’s first named inmate who represents the stable for the first time.  David is adept at taking in ‘refugees’ from other yards and finding a few pounds and pounces of improvement, which is all that might be necessary to lift this prize.  I guess we should not entirely rule Travertine out of the mix too quickly, given that Jonjo O’Neill has saddled six of his last 14 runners to winning effect, statistics which have produced ten points of level stake profit during the period.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

 

8.10: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights between nine stones and 9-6 which eliminates the top two horses in the handicap, leaving the merits of ENZO and DUKEOFWALLINGFORD to (arguably) consider first and foremost.  Brian Meehan saddles his first runners tonight (CARLINI in this contest) since thwarting the huge gamble in the ‘Wokingham’ on Saturday relating to Dreamfield who was sent off as the shortest priced market leader in the race for as long as anyone can recall.  One of the worst things punters can do is listen to comments of media commentators who generalise all too often.  Yes, the victory of Brian’s Bacchus would have annoyed many a person, but possibly not as much as the rails bookmakers who laid the 33/1 winner to a ‘grand’ each way just before the off!

Favourite factor: There is only one successful (9/4) favourite to report via eight renewals thus far.  Detectives are still out searching for the other seven market leaders which failed to reach the frame!

 

8.45: Last year’s beaten favourite DEEDS NOT WORDS has been declared again but as has been offered before, I tend to find Michael Wigham’s runners working better for me when they are at a double figure price.  Accordingly, I prefer the likes of SWANTON BLUE, YOGIYOGIYOGI and GLOBAL EXCEL on this occasion. There is plenty of money queuing up for Deeds Not Words at the time of writing, though that is nothing new.  I was ‘on’ a few months ago at a double figure price which was halved in no time at all, only for the horse to be withdrawn…

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite (Deeds Not Words) finished out of the money.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 26th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

7.10 Windsor : Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Restless in stalls and slowly into stride, soon mid-division on outside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong, went 3rd near finish)

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding actually won this race last year under today's jockey off a mark 1lb higher than today, so he certainly hasn't been weighted out of contention and showed intent with a creditable third placed finish over course and distance last time out 15 days ago, despite being poorly drawn in a race not run to suit him.

Stat-wise, I've been accused on several occasions lately that my picks have lacked logic, so I'm going to keep it simple, although there is plenty of compelling data in what I will share today. I'll leave the more complicated stuff out!

So, we'll start with trainer Alan Bailey and his record at Brighton, which stands at 12 from 43 (27.9% SR) for 36.9pts (+85.9% ROI) profit since the start of the 2011 season, from which...

  • handicappers are 9/37 (24.3%) for 35.4pts (+95.7%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 39.8pts (+110.7%)
  • top 5 finish LTO : 12/30 (40%) for 49.9pts (+166.4%)
  • Class 6 : 6/26 (23.1%) for 5.5pts (+21.2%)
  • males : 8/23 (34.8%) for 31.3pts (+136.2%)
  • at 6/1 and shorter : 10/21 (47.6%) for 28.9pts (+137.8%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/20 (35%) for 35.3pts (+176.5%)
  • since the start of last season : 4/9 944.4%) for 16.66pts (+185.1%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 2/4 (50%) for 20.6pts (+515%)

Meanwhile, today's jockey, 5lb claimer Joshua Bryan is 4 from 16 (25% SR) for 8.32pts (+52%) here at this venue whilst overall he is 7 from 39 (18% SR) for 10.9pts (+28% ROI) for trainer Alan Bailey.

The partnership is strongest on the Flat, where they are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 23.9pts (+92% ROI) profit and these runners include...

  • handicaps : 7/24 (29.2%) for 25.9pts (+108%)
  • claiming 5lbs : 6/18 (33.3%) for 26.8pts (+149%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 7/14 (50%) for 35.9pts (+256.4%)
  • on Good to Firm : 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.54pts (+136.2%)
  • Class 6 : 2/5 (40%) for 9.8pts (+196%)

...and claiming 5lbs on a handicapper priced at 8/1 and shorter = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 35.8pts at an ROI of 398.1%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 19

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years on Day One:

2017: £585.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £522.47

45 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 78.0% units went through – 11/10* - 5/1 – 12/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 59.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 14/1 – 11/4*

Race 4: 25.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 12/1 – 6/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 10/1 – 5/1 – 12/1

Race 6: 9.6% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 12/1 – 25/1 (13/8)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 15 (Rhododendron) & 3 (Benbati)

Leg 2 (3.05): 20 (Swergai Prokofiev), 7 (Calyx) & 23 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Lady Aurelia) & 2 (Blue Point)

Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (U S Navy Flag), 9 (Without Parole) & 10 (Wooton)

Leg 5 (5.00): 7 (Chelkar), 20 (Coeur De Lion), 1 (Whiskey Sour) & 11 (Look My Way)

Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Laaraib), 13 (Sharja Bridge) & 15 (Yucatan)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30:  Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of RHODODRENDON and BENBATI, horses that possess other firm trends in their favour.  Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes in very much the best stepping stone for this event and RHODODENDRON won the event this year with Aiden O’Brien’s raider returning to the type of form he showed of old.  It’s worth noting that Aidan’s two winners during the last decade ran in the ‘Lockinge’ in their previous races, albeit without winning their respective contests.  No trainer has saddled more ‘Queen Anne’ winners that Saeed Bin Suroor (seven in total) whereby we know that BENBATI has been laid out for the contest for some considerable time.  With Saeed having saddled his last winner in the race back in 2007, few people would deny the original ‘blue trainer’ another victory.  A far as jockeys are concerned, we have to focus on Ryan Moore (RHODODENDRON) whose record since 2013 stands at 45% in terms of his mounts finishing in the first three, 21% of which were winners! Indeed, Ryan set a post war record in 2015 by riding nine winners at the meeting. Recoletros is the nomination for the overnight reserve, whilst the pick of the big outsiders could prove to be Beat The Bank who although trounced by Aidan’s projected favourite in the Lockinge has, at least, got race fitness back on his side this time around.  That said, the last ten winners have all emerged from the front three in the market.  Frankie Dettori would have been trying to take the outright lead in the ‘jockey stakes’ in the race but for missing out on a ride, having the same number of winners (six in total) as Sir Gordon Richards.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored in the last twenty one years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the five course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:

1/4—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

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1/2—Benbati (good to firm)

1/3—Century Dream (soft)

1/3—Limato (goot to firm)

1/2—Lord Glitters (soft)

 

3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 22 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his Scat Daddy colt SERGAI PORKOFIEV. That said, THE IRISH ROVER won at the Lockinge meeting at Newbury is taking style suggesting that Aidan’s ‘second string’ is no forlorn hope, especially from a Placepot perspective.  No trainer has even equalled Aiden’s record in the race, let alone beaten his record.  A victory for John Gosden’s Kingman raider CALYX would put a smile on the trainer’s face, the sire having only been beaten (half a length) in the 2014 renewal of the 2000 Guineas in eight races during his wonderful career.  Speculative investors could do worse than have a small each way nibble with Advertise.  That said, eight of the last ten winners have emerged from the front three in the market.

Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  

Record of the two course winners in the Coventry Stakes:

1/1—Blown By Wind (good to firm)

1/1—Getchagetchagetcha (good to soft)

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years: 

11 winners—9 placed—25 unplaced.

'Starting prices stats in the last 15 years: 

7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-31 unplaced

15/2 or more: 3 winners—-20 placed-—181 unplaced

28/1 or more: No winners-—6 placed—-87 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last 15 years:

January: 1 winner & 7 places

February: 6 winners & 7 places

March: 5 winners & 9 places

April: 3 winners & 5 places

May: No winners & 2 places

 

3.40: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders and I find it difficult to pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done.  I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through.  Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal.  Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess.  We have been assured by media commentators this this event has long since looked to be a match between LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH, though sprint races in particular have long since had a habit of producing ‘pear shaped’ results.  Both horses have obvious claims via the form book but tell me something; if the form book is the be all and end all of racing, why are there so many bookmakers rubbing their hands with glee this morning?  Indeed, this is the perfect type of race for layers, with punters anxious to get their cash on two horses which ‘couple’ at odds of around 1/2, with twelve other half decent rivals trying to lower their colours!  On the face of things bookmakers can’t lose because if the market leaders fight out the finish, layers have an even money chance of the right one winning for them, with only one placed horse in their books costing them money!  LADY AURELIA (been there and obtained the t-shirt) is my pick of the duo, though hopefully BLUE POINT will make the pair pull out all of the stops close home.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst 12 of the last 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions going back further in time

Record of the five course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:

2/3—Blue Point (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Gifted Master (good to soft)

1/5—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Lady Aurelia (Good to firm & soft)

1/1—Different League (good to firm)

 

4.20: Let’s get one thing straight to start with.  Media commentators will be waxing lyrical about this event but it takes facts to back up big races and this renewal does not ‘cut the mustard’ I’m afraid.  The last five winners have averaged an official rating of 122, compared to the mark of 109 for Tuesday’s projected market leader.  There is no doubting the potential of John Gosden’s raider WITHOUT PAROLE but that said, his last win was in a Listed event at Sandown whereas last year’s winner was coming off the back off a second placed effort in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last seventeen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany gave Frankel a fright seven years ago.  Aidan saddles US NAVY FLAG who is a dual Group 1 winner, albeit as a juvenile.  There was plenty to like about his second placed effort in the Irish 2000 Guineas the last day, whilst my trio against the remaining seven contenders is completed by WOOTON who will represent decent Placepot value, as is the case for most overseas raiders.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 19 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 19 years was an 8/1 chance.  15 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last three years in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of four of the five Willie Mullins raiders into the equation, the pick of which arguably include CHELKAR and WHISKEY SOUR. Ten of the last twelve winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY additionally enter the overnight mix. Eight of the last ten winners emerged from the top four horses in the betting, whilst last nine of the last 14 winners carried weights ranging between 8-12 and 9-3, burdens which are carried by my two English contenders COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last nineteen years (three winners).  Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.  I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post.  I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps.  My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race.  With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 22/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective. 

Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:  

1/6—Hassle (good)

1/1—Sam Missile (good to firm)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest (previous contested on the Saturday of the five day meeting) whilst seventeen of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of LARAAIB, SHARJA BRIDGE and YUCATAN.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute’s raider MIRAGE DANCER only carries 16 ounces over the ‘superior barrier’ whereby Michael might finally take the trainer record from Sir Henry Cecil, the pair each having saddled a staggering 75 winners at the royal meeting.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course record of the course winner in the Listed Wolferton Handicap:

1/1—Laraaib (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 11th June

BRIGHTON – JUNE 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £325.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.5% units went through – 11/4 – 2/1* - 25/1

Race 2: 44.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/2 & 9/4*

Race 3: 8.3% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 12/1 – 20/1 (6/1)

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 4/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 -7/4* - 16/1

Race 6: 68.7% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* & 11/2

 

  • Speculative investors might have thought that they had a four figure dividend in the making last year as the Placepot was worth £33.02 at the halfway stage and £109.04 after four legs. That said, £325.70 is not a bad wage on a daily basis for most folk.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Livvys Dream), 1 (Claudine) & 6 (Angel Of The North)

Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Aegean Mist) & 6 (More Than Likely)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Lady Of Petra), 4 (Sunday Best) & 2 (Medici Oro)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Maori Bob) & 6 (Genetics)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Roundabout Magic), 1 (Big Lachie) & 5 (Ask the Guru)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Impart), 5 (Give Em A Clump) & 3 (New Rich)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: There will be worse outsiders on the card than ANGEL OF THE NORTH today I’ll wager and the 11/1 quote in a couple of places this morning is already looking under threat.  That said, LIVVYS DREAM and CLAUDINE are more logical winners of the contest from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: Both market leaders have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions to date.

 

2.30: AEGEAN MIST looks the only possible danger to MORE THAN LIKELY, with Richard Hughes (2/4 for at the track) trying to ward off his former employers (‘Team Hannon) with his latter named Coach House filly who ran well to run third over this trip at the third time of asking at Windsor.  AEGEAN MIST is expected to run the hot favourite close though from my viewpoint, especially with the Hannon juveniles seemingly needing their first outings this term.  Accordingly, Sean Levey’s mount should be ready to challenge for major honours today.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders thus far picked up a Placepot position via a silver medal effort two years ago.

 

3.00: I’m quite happy to absorb the rule 4 deduction having been on LADY OF PETRA at 20/1 in the dead of night, a quote which might halve in price by the time that flag fall arrives.  I wouldn’t entirely rule out another ‘roughie’ in SUNDAY BEST personally, especially looking at the favourite stats below, albeit it is early doors as far as the contest goes just now.  I guess MEDICI ORO is the player to consider from further up the betting in a race which will take little winning.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for the 11/10 and 6/1 favourites in this race to date.

 

3.30: GENETICS and WHINGING WILLY (offered in that order of preference) have to be considered in such a weak race, though MAORI BOB should take the beating, especially with a five pound claimer reducing the burden today.  Cameron Noble is the relevant rider and with 29 gold medalists to his name alongside a 25% strike rate for Michael Bell via six winners, MAORI BOB is expected to return to winning ways.  ‘Bob’ is now seven pounds better off (taking the jockey claim into account) with Regicide for a two and a quarter length deficit the last day.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot position via two renewals.  That said, it’s only fair to point out that aside from a dead heat, both of the 6/4 joint favourite could not snare the ‘win only’ prize two years back.

Record of the trio of course winners in the third race:

3/13—Whinging Willie (2 x good to firm & good)

2/2—Fair Power (good to firm & good to soft)

2/3—Archimento (good to firm and good to soft)

 

4.00: 10/1 is a slight insult to dual (good to firm) course winner ASK THE GURU from my reading of the race, especially with Michael Attwater having saddled winners at the corresponding meeting in recent years.  I guess the form book reads fairly accurately however, whereby more logical winners include fellow course winner ROUNDABOUT MAGIC and BIG LACHIE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader snared a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Roundabout Magic (good to firm)

2/6—Ask The Guru (2 x good to firm)

 

4.30: DEEDS NOT WORDS won this event off 10-8 twelve months ago (his last victory) whereby his 9-10 burden today could feel like something of a feather-weight to Michael Wigham’s seven-year-old handicapper.  Regular readers will know that I have chased this Royal Applause gelding up hill and down dale in the past, none more so that when securing a double figure price ‘last time out’ which was backed down to less than half those odds before being withdrawn.  There is no doubting his chance but inconsistency has crept into his work now and I’m prepared to sit back and watch him win at ‘cramped’ odds compared to what might be on offer if raised in class for a subsequent race in better company next time out, should Tom Queally’s mount win today.  Preference from a Placepot angle is offered to IMPART, GIVE EM A CLUMP and NEW RICH.  Milly Naseb’s latter named mount might have been the call from a win perspective but for digesting his 0/24 win record on turf.

Favourite factor: Both (9/4 and Even money) favourites have obliged thus far.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Deeds Not Words (good to firm)

1/4—Strictly Carter (god to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Beverley : No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Chased leaders switched left 2f out, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, wandered inside final furlong, soon weakened)

We continue with Monday's...

4.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 

A 5-runner, Class 5 handicap for 4yo+over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has two wins and two places from his last six outings, so he's clearly in good shape and was actually an SotD pick last time out 13 days ago when finishing third over 5f at Lingfield.

He was unlucky that day, beaten by just a head and a neck staying on well at the finish despite being denied a clear run. The extra half furlong should therefore help today, as should a drop in class for this horse who is 5 from 16 when ridden by Nicky Mackay, he has 4 wins in this grade, has won over this trip, has won on good to firm ground and is 1 from 2 here at Brighton, both over course and distance.

In addition to his own suitability for the task ahead, trainer Simon Dow's handicappers dropping in class are 12/80 (15% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • males at 12/72 (16.9%) for 53.7pts (+75.6%)
  • those last seen 6-15 days earlier are 8/24 (33.3%) for 61.9pts (+258%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 are 5/23 (21.7%) for 4.9pts (+21.2%)

AND...males dropping into Class 5 contests, 6 to 15 days after their last run are 3/4 (75% SR) for 16.64pts (+416% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Sunday with plenty of 5/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Beverley : No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Chased leaders switched left 2f out, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, wandered inside final furlong, soon weakened)

We continue with Monday's...

4.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 

A 5-runner, Class 5 handicap for 4yo+over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has two wins and two places from his last six outings, so he's clearly in good shape and was actually an SotD pick last time out 13 days ago when finishing third over 5f at Lingfield.

He was unlucky that day, beaten by just a head and a neck staying on well at the finish despite being denied a clear run. The extra half furlong should therefore help today, as should a drop in class for this horse who is 5 from 16 when ridden by Nicky Mackay, he has 4 wins in this grade, has won over this trip, has won on good to firm ground and is 1 from 2 here at Brighton, both over course and distance.

In addition to his own suitability for the task ahead, trainer Simon Dow's handicappers dropping in class are 12/80 (15% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • males at 12/72 (16.9%) for 53.7pts (+75.6%)
  • those last seen 6-15 days earlier are 8/24 (33.3%) for 61.9pts (+258%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 are 5/23 (21.7%) for 4.9pts (+21.2%)

AND...males dropping into Class 5 contests, 6 to 15 days after their last run are 3/4 (75% SR) for 16.64pts (+416% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Sunday with plenty of 5/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th June

GOODWOOD – JUNE 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £156.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 55.9% units went through – 9/2 – 6/1 – 7/2*

Race 2: 48.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 9/2** - 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 3: 32.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 22/1 – 6/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 55.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 5/1

Race 6: 28.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 9 (Unbridled Spirit), 2 (Cheeky Rascal) & 4 (Marble Bar)

Leg 2 (6.30): 7 (Flowing Clarets), 5 (Incentive) & 8 (Mad Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Sky Eagle), 2 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Arab Moon)

Leg 4 (7.40): 2 (Pretty Jewel), 3 (Arcadian Cat), 4 (Gift Of Hera) & 1 (Reckless Wave)

Leg 5 (8.15): 2 (Silca Mistress)

Leg 6 (8.50): 9 (Supernova), 5 (Great Beyond) & 3 (Crystal King)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

  • Nice win for us yesterday with 48 winning 10p lines at Sandown which created a Placepot profit of £212.64 on the day…

 

5.55: Although three of his seven runners won during a good period this time last week, Andrew Balding’s runners continue to blow hot and cold this season, though I’m hoping the flag back at the ranch will by flying at its highest mast after UNBRIDLED SPIRIT scores here, chiefly at the expense of CHEEKY RASCAL and MARBLE BAR I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top priced of 7/1, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.  Five of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

6.30: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in this event, though only John Bridger (FLOWING CLARETS) seems alive to the potential ‘edge’.  Luke Morris might find himself in a tassle to grab the lead aboard John’s raider early doors though either way, I’m adding Flowing Clarets into the mix via my self-confessed anorak tendencies.  Stuart Kittow’s pair INCENTIVE and MAD ENDEAVOUR are included in the Placepot equation in a race which could produce a result which will kill off several thousand Placepot units – hopefully!

Favourite factor: Four of the last five winners (of six in total) have scored at a top price of 5/1, stats which include two (7/2 & 5/2) winners.  That said, only three of the seven market leaders thus far have finished in the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Oeil De Tigre (good to soft)

1/3—Mad Endeavour (soft)

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet only a trio of vintage representatives feature in the nine strong field.  There have been other forecasts gained during the period though the 2015 renewal stood out with four-year-olds securing a 120/1 Exacta Forecast alongside the 345/1 Trifecta dividend!  This year’s trio are SKY EAGLE, HUMBLE HERO and ARAB MOON.  The defence rests its case!

Favourite factor: Only one 7/2 (joint favourite) has obliged during the last decade during which time, just four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/3—Arthur Mc Bride (good & soft)

 

7.40: PRETTY JEWELL would be the call if had to nominate one of the four declarations from a win perspective, though with her course victory having been gained under soft conditions, I feel duty bound to include all four runners in my permutation before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Pretty Jewel (soft)

 

8.15: I have searched through the card for a banker in one of the races, knowing that I was going to have to offer large perms in some races, believing that a good Placepot dividend is on the cards tonight.  I have opted for SILCA MISTRESS, even though Clive Cox’s raider drops down a furlong after scoring at Leicester recently.  Having made all at Leicester, pace should not be an issue and nothing should be staying on stronger in the final furlong.  Adam Kirby’s mount has secured gold and silver medals over this distance in the past via six assignments, whilst her two victories to date have been gained under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first (seventh of nine) it what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

8.50: SUPERNOVA looks a tad big at 9/2 in four places at the time of writing, whilst others added into the Placepot equation are GREAT BEYOND and CRYSTAL KING.  If you are looking for an each way interest in the race, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Sarim I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest to close out the Goodwood programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 29th May

LEICESTER – MAY 29

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £20.50 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 90.2% units went through – 8/15* - 6/1 – 9/2

Race 2: 24.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 14/1 (2 x 5/2**)

Race 3: 48.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 5/2* - 7/1

Race 4: 79.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 8/1 – Evens*

Race 5: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 14/1

Race 6: 81.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/5* - 15/2 – 11/2

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Ballistic), 6 (Secret Venture) & 2 (Blyton)

Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Flight Of Fantasy), 7 (Infanta Isabella) & 9 (Peace And Plenty)

Leg 3 (2.50): 6 (Shovel It On), 4 (Star Of Zaam) & 5 (Straight Ash)

Leg 4 (3.20): 3 (Angel’s Glory) & 2 (Cavatina)

Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Fanaar) & 5 (Glorious Dane)

Leg 6 (4.20): 16 (Delph Crescent), 5 (I’m A Star) & 1 (Nibras Galaxy)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BALLISTIC is a general 6/1 chance across the board at the time of writing and given that he finished ‘only’ four lengths adrift of an Aidan O’Brien favourite (finished third) at Newmarket recently, Jim Crowley’s mount represents an each way (potential) bet to nothing investment, albeit to small stakes.  Murqaab looks too skinny from my viewpoint at the third time of asking, whereby I’ll add newcomers SECRET VENURE and BYLTON into the Placepot mix for openers.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Harry Dunlop’s runners (alongside brother Ed’s for that matter) but FLIGHT OF FANTASY should give us a reasonable run for our collective monies in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  It might be worth taking into account that Harry has only saddled more winners at Salisbury than he has managed at this venue down the years and with the ‘Dunlop’ name en masse strongly associated with the Wiltshire racecourse, Harry’s Leicester record is decent enough.  Others to consider from a win and place perspective include INFANTA ISABELLA and PEACE AND PLENTY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite prevailed.

Leicester record of the two course winners in the second event: 

1/2—Flight Of Fantasy (good to soft)

1/1—Bakht A Rowan (heavy)

 

2.50: All nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 which eliminates the top three horses in the handicap, two of which are well fancied according to the trade press. The trio which make most appeal from the other five options in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest are course winner SHOVEL IT ON, STAR OF ZAAM and STRAIGHT ASH.

Favourite factor: Two (6/4 & 5/2) favourites have prevailed via nine renewals to date, whilst seven of the nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Leicester record of the course winner in the field: 

1/3—Shovel It On (soft)

 

3.20: The trio of winners thus far have scored at 33/1, 10/1 & 9/2 with the prices getting bigger year on year!  Hoping those stats will not have put you off having a bet in the race, I’m offering up ANGEL’S GLORY to go very close in this grade/company.  It took a subsequent ‘Listed’ winner to stop the Invincible Spirit filly scoring at the first time of asking this term and it’s doubtful that there is a rival of that class in this field.  Andrea Atzeni will have (presumably) had the option of riding stable companion Elation, which leads yours truly to thinking that CAVATINA is the biggest threat to the selection this afternoon.  Lady Willpower receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor: Both of the (11/4 & 9/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s even money market scrambled home in third place to reduce the deficit.

 

3.50: The Hannon team think a great deal of GLORIOUS DANE, that much I know to be true but there might be a doubt about him beating FANAAR over six furlongs, with Fran Berry’s mount being an Olympic Glory colt.  Either way, I suggest you set the video up for this event to determine just how good Glorious Dane might be later in the the season.  FANNAR did little wrong at the first time of asking and looks something of a Placepot banker, whichever of the pair wins, unless Sir Michael Stoute’s Kingman colt ALNASHERAT proves to be something out of the ordinary.  I urge you to take note of that last sentence, given that Michael has saddled more juvenile winners at Leicester than anywhere else in this green and (blessedly still) pleasant land.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won via twelve renewals, whilst the relevant winners to date scored at a top price of 8/1.  Nine of the fourteen favourites have snared Placepot positions to date.

 

4.20: DELPH CRESCENT appeals at odds of 20/1 in a place this morning, fully expecting Richard Fahey’s raider to contract to around the 14/1 mark before too long as business gets fully under way.  Richard took his ratio to 3/4 at the track yesterday with a winner from the other end of the market, though Paul Hanagan’s mount is still expected to give a decent account at the odds on offer.  Others for the mix include I’M A STAR, NIBRAS GALAXY and IMMORTAL ROMANCE.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 8th May

EXETER – MAY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,815.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.6% units went through – 4/9* & 5/1

Race 2: 1.7% of the remaining units when through – 20/1 (Win only) – (4/11)

Race 3: 35.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 3/1 (11/4)

Race 4: 24.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4 (11/10)

Race 5: 40.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 7/4*

Race 6: 48.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2 & 7/2 (7/4)

 

*Point of Order – Although there are no scheduled ‘win only’ races on the card, it’s as well to digest the fact that such races can have a dramatic effect on Placepot dividends, as was the case at the corresponding meeting twelve months ago.

The second race on the card was won by a 20/1 chance which in Placepot terms relating to the units that went up in smoke, turned out to be a 56/1 scenario!  The ‘transparency’ was extended by the fact that two non-runners created the ‘win only’ event, units which were transferred onto the favourite via Placepot rules.

Similarly, the fourth race was won by the 7/4 second favourite, but the winner was selected by less than 25% of the clients who held remaining tickets at the time.

Just six runners are entered for the 7.50 event tonight whereby you should ensure that two runners (or more) are not withdrawn – before you place your Placepot wagers!

 

Tueday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Secret Escape) & 12 (Tillythetank)

Leg 2 (6.20): 4 (Champ) & 12 (Rockpoint)

Leg 3 (6.50): 3 (Coningsby), 15 (Eddy) & 1 (Katy P)

Leg 4 (7.20): 1 (Marquis Of Carabas), 7 (Lip Service) & 9 (Innocent Girl)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (The Two Amigos) & 6 (Mistress Massini)

Leg 6 (8.20): 11 (Grey Diamond), 3 (Net De Treve) & 12 (Jeremiah James)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.50: The first two races on the card appear to be ‘match events’ if early indications from the exchanges are to be believed.  It would certainly create a huge surprise/potentially massive Placepot dividend here if both SECRET ESCPAE and TILLYTHETANK finished out of the frame.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Exeter.

 

6.20: CHAMP and ROCKPOINT should similarly dominate the second contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Another new event on the Exeter programme but given the strength of the projected favourites/well fancied pair of horses in each of the first two races on the card, I’m not at all sure these contests will in in place twelve months hence.

 

6.50: EDDY has secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety via five assignments at this venue down the years and though I am invariable well wide of the mark relating to Sue Gardner’s runners (they win of I ignore them and flop when I take the plunge), 16/1 looks a tad over the top about EDDY who recorded the victory here on (good) going which should be in place tonight.  That said, Tom Lacey came into this meeting last year having scored with two of his previous four runners and sure enough, the horse I focussed on (in the last race this evening) obliged at 5/2.  Tom’s run of hot form is even better this year (current ratio of 16/33) and his only runner on the card runs in this event, namely CONINGSBY. My trio against the field is completed by KATY P who has the fast conditions in favour for another decent offering in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite scored though bookmakers have not had things going all their way, with six of the last eight gold medallists having won at a top price of 5/1.  Only one of the last six market leaders has secured a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Zero Grand (good to soft)

1/2—Just A Sting (good to soft)

1/2—Jully Les Buxy (soft)

1/5—Eddy (good)

 

7.20: Eight-year-olds won all four of the renewals when represented which suggests that the lone vintage representative MARQUIS OF CARABAS could outrun his current 12/1 odds which are in place with several bookmakers at the time of writing.  Fergal O’Brien has wasted little time in entering LIP SERVICE now that the ground has improved, whilst INNOCENT GIRL has to be included for similar (ground) reasons alongside her impressive consistency.  Harry Fry’s mare is a winner of three of her eight races on good ground thus far.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have prevailed, though the other pair of market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Casper King (soft)

1/5—Triple Chief (soft)

2/8—Bredon Hill Lad (soft & heavy)

 

7.50: As was the case in the previous race on the card, eight-year-olds have the best recent record here having secured four victories during the last decade.  This fact will offer confidence to connections of Creative Inerta I’ll wager though according to form figures, both THE TWO AMIGOS and MISTRESS MASSINI will take plenty of kicking out of the Placepot frame.  Indeed, the booking of William Biddick looks particularly significant relating to the latter named raider.

Favourite factor: The last eleven winners (in as many years) have scored at 6/1 or less, statistics which include four winning favourites.

 

8.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewal and the trade press prices of relevant declarations GREY DIAMOND and JEREMIAH JAMES should not put you off their respective chances in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Indeed, their 10/1 and 16/1 quotes look wide of the mark with likelier starting prices of around 6/1 and 9/1 (respectively) looking entirely possible.  NET DE TRVE and RUFIO are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, four of which returned at odds varying between 11/1 and 16/1.  The last five favourites have finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.35 Bath : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Tuesday's...

3.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo+) on good ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, what we have here is an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three starts and whose career stats include...

  • 3 from 11 at 7/8 furlongs
  • 3 from 3 in blinkers
  • 2 from 2 since moving to Paul Cole's yard (more on Paul in a moment!)
  • 1 from 1 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Raul da Silva

And now to trainer Paul Cole...

Over the last 21 months, his LTO winners have gone on to follow up 11 times from 37 (29.7% SR) generating 29.1pts (+78.8% ROI) profit along the way, which are good numbers and in the context of today's race, those 37 are..

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%) as males
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 35.1pts (+113.4%) at the ages of 2 to 4
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 33.2pts (+107.2%) over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 36.1pts (+120.5%) in handicaps
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 23.6pts (+112.4%) at 21-60 days after their last run/win
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 33pts (+194.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.6pts (+244.6%) at the age of 4
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 14.15pts (+283%) with Raul da Silva in the saddle

AND...from the above  : 2-4 yr old male handicappers over 5 to 9 furlongs = 9/18 (50% SR) for 36.67pts (+203.7% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 21.43pts (+428.5%) over the last 6 months and Raul has ridden 3 of those 5, winning twice (66.6%) and making 6.6pts (+220%) profit, including a win on today's pick!

More generally, since the start of 2015, Mr Cole's runners are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 33.5pts (+128.7% ROI) profit here at Brighton with the following subsets of relevance today...

  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 23.5pts (+123.4%) in handicaps
  • 8/16 (50%) for 14.9pts (+92.9%) at ISP odds shorter than 5/1
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 21.42pts (+142.8%) during April/May
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.64pts (+73.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.64pts (+95.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 18.66pts (+311%) on good ground

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday, although the best price was 7/2 BOG from bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot positions – Wednesday 2nd May

ASCOT – MAY 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £70.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 68.0% units went through – 12/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 71.5% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & Evens*

Race 3: 8.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 & 10/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 4: 75.9% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 7/2 – 10/1

Race 5: 52.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 2/1*

Race 6: 59.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 12/1 – 11/4*

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Dathanna)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Torcedor), 5 (Raheen House) & 6 (Time To Study)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Sound And Silence), 6 (Laugh A Minute) & 4 (Eqtidaar)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Accidental Agent) & 3 (Century Dream)

Leg 6 (4.55): 10 (Balmoral Castle), 5 (Mountain Angel), 2 (Berkshire Boy), 7 (Sayem) & 9 (Saluti)

Suggested stake: 90 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • Much depends on the state of the ground at Ascot because if some of the heavy rain we have endured here at Bristol overnight gets into the ground, you can forget the official going – “good, good to soft in places” quote overnight. That goes for the ground at Bath (I live ten minutes away from the racecourse) – and then some!

 

2.00: If ‘whispers’ are to be believed, THE IRISH ROVER is home and hosed following a half decent debut effort at Dundalk.  That last comment does offers warning signals however because we don’t know how Ryan Moore’s mount will go on turf, especially with rain forecast to reach Ascot well before lunchtime.  There was only a light shower overnight but the wet stuff it set to intensify sooner rather than later this morning.  The trade press price of 8/13 looks wide of the mark via the exchanges this morning, with 4/9 being more likely to be returned.  If that does not sound like a great deal of difference, the differential is similar to a horse being back from 9/1 into 5/1.  You will be in a better position to judge the way the market is swinging later in the morning, whereby I am going to bank on Ryan’s mount in a smaller permutation today than is usually the case because of the uncertainty of conditions.

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Favourite factor: Fifteen of the sixteen winners have scored at 6/1 or less, whilst six favourites have prevailed to date.  Twelve of the eighteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions. This meeting was transferred to Kempton five years ago but I have included the (high profile) results nonetheless.  

 

2.35: Some strange trainer movements are in place today.  All five of John Gosden’s runners turn up at Wolverhampton, whilst only one of Sir Michael’s Stoute’s four representatives are travelling to Ascot.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that Charlie Appleby can be the beneficiary here having declared DATHANNA.  I’m banking on the first two hot-pots on the card, albeit I’m mindful that the opening pair of short priced (5/6 & even money) market leaders twelve months ago failed to oblige.

Favourite factor: 16/17 winners have scored at odds of a top price of 8/1.  Seven favourites have won, whilst twelve of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

3.10: Last year’s £70.90 Placepot dividend would have been so much less but for the two 7/2 joint favourites having finished out of the frame twelve months ago.  Although the two horses that finished in the ‘short field’ frame were only sent off at 15/2 and 10/1, 91.6% of the live units perished!  TORCEDOR looks another lively Irish raider on the card and having claimed one gold medal and two of the silver variety from just three assignments on soft ground, Jessica Harrington’s Fastnet Rock gelding can go close in this grade/company.  RAHEEN HOUSE and TIME TO STUDY are preferred to Desert Skyline in the projected ground.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Nineteen of the last twenty one favourites have been beaten in this ‘Sagaro Stakes’, with just six market leaders finishing in the frame in the process. That said, eighteen of the last twenty winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Raheen House (good to soft)

 

3.45: Although SOUND AND SILENCE won the ‘Windsor Castle’ at last year’s royal meeting on fast ground, Charlie Appleby’s Exceed And Exceed colt had run some decent races under contrasting conditions.  Roger Varian’s runners are beginning to do what they are told now whereby the chance for LAUGH A MINUTE is respected, whilst Sir Michael Stoute’s lone raider EQTIDAAR might prove to be of the liveliest outsiders on the card.  Invincible Army does not light me up at the projected price of 6/4.

Favourite factor: Five of the last thirteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen of the last twenty market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  Twelve of the last fourteen winners have scored at odds ranging between 6/4 and 7/1.

Ascot record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Sound And Silence (good to firm)

 

4.20: Four-year-olds have snared six renewals during the last twelve years and ACCIDENTAL AGENT and CENTURY DREAM can continue the trend on behalf of the vintage. I made a strong case for last year’s 7/2 winner and that would have been the case for CENTURY DREAM but for the fact that ‘headgear’ has been left off, despite the fact that a hood has been worn in each of the last four occasions that Simon Crisford’s Cape Cross colt has won.  This pair should see us safely through to the Placepot finale however.

Favourite factor: Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions (two winners), though it’s worth noting that the 4/9 favourite in a ’win only’ contest was turned over eight years ago.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/3—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

 

4.55: Horses carrying 8-11 or more have secured nine of the ten available Placepot postitions to date and though we have to take allowances into consideration here (hoping that the relevant pilots claim their full entitlements), the field can be narrowed from twenty down to eleven.  My quintet against the field accordingly consists of the 2016 winner BALMORAL CASTLE, MOUNTAIN ANGEL, BERKSHIRE BOY, SAYEM and proven soft ground winner SALUTI.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites secured a Placepot position without winning its respective event two years ago.

Draw factor (One mile straight):

9-10-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

9-7-5-10 (17 ran-good to soft)

15-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Apex King (good to firm)

1/4—Balmoral Castle (good to soft)

1/1—Fire Tree (good)

1/4—Professor (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.15 Yarmouth : Ramblow @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

We continue now with Wednesday's...

5.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (3yo) on Good To Soft worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, I started with the racecard (usually a good place to start!) and the Geegeez pace/draw tabs give a good indication of how similar races to this one have played out in the past. I quickly saw that horses who like to lead were most successful and that horses drawn low fared best from that perspective.

So, back to the card itself and I see that not only is our girl drawn in stall 1, but she's the only one who likes to get on with it leading to the Pace Forecast to suggest that Probable Lone Speed would be the outcome today ie she might well get out fast and hope to hold on. Brighton is a tricky place to win from behind in such contests and there's every chance we could nick it from the front and with Luke Morris on board, I'm confident that he'll judge it best.

And now the numbers!

This 3 yr old filly is trained by Mark Johnston and is one of seven runners representing the yard today, but the only one to be sent on the long trip to Brighton, but that's not a worry to me, because Mark's runners here are 31/140 (22.1% SR) for 47.1pts (+33.6% ROI) since 2008. To show, I'm not leaning on old data, they were 7/19 (36.8%) for 4.6pts (+24.2%) last season.

Of those 140 Brighton runners, handicappers are 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 62.2pts (+69.1% ROI), from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 17/64 (26.6%) for 37.5pts (+58.5%)
  • those who last raced 1 to 4 weeks earlier : 17/62 (27.4%) for 70.6pts (+113.8%)
  • over the last 5 seasons : 13/53 (24.5%) for 15.7pts (+29.6%)
  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 11/2 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.24pts (+20.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 4.4pts (+14.1%)
  • yard's only runner at the track that day : 9/25 (36%) for 13.9pts (+55.6%)
  • and Luke Morris is 1/1 (100%) for 2.5pts (+250%)

Based on the above, you could concentrate on the following...last 5 seasons / 3 yr olds / Class 4+5 / SP odds of 6/4 to 8/1 and who last ran 1 to 4 weeks ago. Backing such runners stands at 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+135.3% ROI)...

...whilst more generally over the last two years, Mark Johnston's runners on the Flat over trips of 6 to 7.5 furlongs on ground no worse than soft are 116/679 (17.1% SR) for 162pts (+23.9% ROI) profit, including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days earlier : 62/363 (17.1%) for 82.4pts (+22.7%)
  • females are 46/285 (16.1%) for 161.8pts (+56.8%)
  • Class 5 : 44/189 (23.3%) for 48pts (+25.4%)

AND... Class 5 females returning from a short 11-30 day break are 8/39 (20.5% SR) for 53.5pts (+137.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Tuesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 24th April

BRIGHTON – APRIL 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £56.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 32.5% units went through – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 67.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 9/4* - 10/3

Race 3: 47.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* & 9/2

Race 4: 43.7% of the remaining units went through –8/1 – 13/2 – 3/1 (5/2)

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 6/1 – 13/8*

Race 6: 34.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* & 20/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (4.15): 4 (Baltic Prince) & 3 (Tigerwolf)

Leg 2 (4.50): 3 (It’s the Only Way), 6 (Al Manhalah) & 7 (Knockabout Queen)

Leg 3 (5.25): 7 (Andalusite), 3 (Art Echo) & 5 (Madrinho)

Leg 4 (5.55): 6 (Prince Jai), 3 (Violet’s Lads) & 10 (Joyful Dream)

Leg 5 (6.30): 7 (Becca Campbell), 8 (Let’s Be Happy) & 6 (Poetic Force)

Leg 6 (7.05): 10 (The Secret’s Out) & 2 (Hint Of Grey)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

4.15: BALTIC PRINCE is the each way call in the contest from my viewpoint, even though TIGERWOLF has a favourite’s chance in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Trainer Tony Carroll (BALTIC PRINCE) is on a great run just now, boasting a 40% strike rate via six recent winners, gold medallists which have produce 34 points of level stake profits during the period.

Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders secured Placepot positions (one winner) via three renewals.

Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Ocean Temptress (good to soft)

1/8—Swiss Cross (good to firm)

1/3—Baltic Prince (good)

4/25—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)

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4.50: KNOCKABOUT QUEEN was as green as grass at the first time of asking and can only do better for in form Mick Channon, albeit I was expecting the Sixties Icon filly to be targeted at a more conventional track than Brighton where the gradients can catch seasoned thoroughbreds out on occasions.  That taken into account, I will hold back from a win perspective, whilst adding IT’S THE ONLY WAY and AL MANHALAH into my Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.

 

5.25: Not the easiest ‘short field’ event to assess, with course and distance winners ART ECHO and ANDALUSITE being the first to horses short listed. John Gallagher saddles the latter named raider with the trainer boasting 24 winners at the track in eighteen year of having held a license.  John’s next best haul is ten (Goodwood) whereby you can detect that this must be his favourite venue.  ART ECHO won on soft ground when successful here, which probably means that I will add MADRINHO into the Placepot mix. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year when the 7/2 market leader snared a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.

Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card.

1/1—Sayesse (good to firm)

4/16—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/2—Art Echo (soft)

3/7—Andalusite (2 x good to firm & good)

 

5.55: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 10-6 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (21 up for grabs) gained via seven renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared six of the seven contests to date.  I’m taking a trio of vintage representatives to get us through to the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, namely PRINCE JAI, VIOLETS LADS and JOYFUL DREAM.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/1, 7/2 & 11/4) winners.

Record of the six course winners in the field:

1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)

1/4—Hidden Stash (good)

2/7—Indus Valley (good & good to firm)

3/13—Live Dangrously (2 x good to soft & good)

3/26—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)

1/9—Ettie Hart (good to form)

 

6.30I’m struggling to put lines though the names of the two course winners here, despite both runners on offer at double figure prices at the time of writing.  BECCA CAMPBELL (Eve Johnson Houghton) and LET’S BE HAPPY (Ali Stronge) look sure to give supporters a decent run for their collective monies, nominating   POETIC FORCE as the potential joker in the pack as far as our outsiders are concerned.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

3/7—Becca Campbell (3 x good)

1/3—Let’s Be Happy (good to firm)

 

7.05: I have only left myself two options for the competitive looking Placepot finale but that said, the likes of THE SECRET’S OUT (should revert to consistent form now that he has had his pipe opener for the campaign) and HINT OF GREY (strong local contender for Gary Moore) can do the Placepot business for us in the lucky last.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Brighton card.

Record of the three course winners in the line up:

1/2—Hint Of Grey (good)

2/15—Solveig’s Song (good to form & good to soft)

2/10—With Approval (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.