The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where the 2.15 Catterick race might worth a second look.
As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...
- 3.15 Catterick
- 3.45 Catterick
- 7.00 Southwell
As it happens, that 2.15 race only has three runners, so I'll leave that alone to focus upon the 7.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...
Top weight Alexander James is winless in eight starts but drops two classes to run here and has already scored over course and distance, albeit on his debut almost four years ago on the old polytrack surface. Yard also runs Plastic Paddy here.
Tropez Power won over C&D three starts ago and has made the frame in each of his last two, catching the eye as a fast finisher just failing by three quarters of a length LTO.
Plastic Paddy is the only LTO winner on the field and is raised 4lbs for that win over this trip on Newcastle's Tapeta. He's a five time winner over this trip and should go well again.
Chief's Will has also won over C&D, getting home by a head two starts ago. He was raised 2lbs for that run, but still came within three quarters of a length of catching Plastic Paddy LTO. Has unfortunately been raised 2lbs in defeat, which makes life tougher here.
Soames Forsyte was a runner-up at Southwell LTO, when a head behind Chief's Will here over C&D and he's now 2lbs better off with the winner as he makes a yard debut for his third handler inside a year. He's up in class today and wears a hood for the first time, as he hopes to finally get off the mark at the seventh time of asking.
Candy Warhol makes a handicap debut here just four days after finishing fourth of eight at Wolverhampton, having weakened late on after being headed after 7f. He makes a course debut here and isn't leniently treated off 74.
Mykonos St John is Candy Warhol's stablemate and he also ran just four days ago when last home of nine in a sixteenth successive defeat since winning here over 7f just over a year ago. He's now 4lbs lower than that win, but recent form is appalling (14/15, 7/9, 6/7, 14/14, 9/9) and provides no inspiration.
Bottom weight Local Bay, however, has been going really well, winning here at Southwell in back to back Class 6, 7f handicaps earlier this month, before stepping up a class to run 2nd of 11 (beaten by a head) at Wolverhampton four days ago. He's up in class again, but has been eased a pound by the assessor and whilst this is the toughest race to date, he really is in good nick and has won over this trip on Newcastle's tapeta.
So, we've five course winners and six distance winners, but Instant Expert can tell us more about going, class and weight...
Tropez Power is the clear eye-catcher here with a full line of green with Local Bay looking decent too and I've no real issues with any of them on the going, the two reds are from just two outings each. The field doesn't initially looked to have done too well at Class 4 on the A/W, but Tropez Power is 2 from 5, which is good and aside from Plastic Paddy, who I'll come to shortly, the other six runners have only had ten Class 4 runs, so it's probably too early to say they're all not good enough!
As for Plastic Paddy, yes he's only 1 from 9 at this grade, but his win was last time out and he has made the frame in three of the nine. He also has the worst record here at Southwell but that just strikes me as quirky with him having three wins three further places from eleven tapeta runs including his 0/4 here. It's surely only a matter of time before the penny drops. Trip-wise, Chief's Will is the odd one out with just one win from seven, but that win was here over C&D two starts ago and he was only narrowly defeated LTO.
The tapeta surface here at Southwell is still relatively new, so we don't have hundreds of races worth of data to fall back upon, but what 2022 and 2023 have shown us in terms of draw and pace is...
...that although it's looks like a high draw is most advantageous, you'd probably want to be in the 3 to 7 middle section, but the bias isn't massive at all. You can understand stalls 1 and 2 being slightly worse off with a tight left hand bend, but the emphasis here is on pace/race tactics...
...where it pays to get out quickly and stay out. Leaders win almost as often as mid-division runners and hold-up horses combined, whilst prominent runners make the frame most often. It might be a simple inference, but perhaps it's a case of leaders winning and those chasing staying close to them and filling the places? As for the pace/draw combinations, mid-drawn leaders who can almost cut across the bend fare considerably better than the others...
We can then refer back to our race draw and the fields most recent outings via our pace tab...
As the pace of the race seems to carry more weight than the draw, I'm going to make this a five-horse race, omitting Tropez Power, Soames Forsyte and Mykonos St John. I do like Tropez Power , as he is a decent sort and will win races, but he's up in weight after a defeat and is likely to be one of the back makers, so I've reluctantly ruled him out. Of the remaining five, Alexander James is winless in sixteen and Candy Warhol looks up against it off an opening mark of 74 after four modest outings.
Summary
The three I like best of the field here are Plastic Paddy, Chief's Will and Local Bay. The first two on that list were only separated by 0.75 lengths recently and with Chief's Will better off at the weights now, slightly better drawn and more likely to lead, there's every chance of him reversing those placings. Local Bay is in great form too and should get a good tow into the race from Chief's Will on his immediate inside and we good have a cracking, tight contest.
Any of the three could well win and if pushed, I'd possibly side with Local Bay at 4/1. Plastic Paddy is 7/2 but Chief's Will might have been underestimated by a 6/1 ticket. Sadly that's not long enough for me as an E/W bet and I can't seem to shake off the thought of Tropez Power defying the pace/draw to get up late on.