CHELTENHAM – MARCH 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £3,255.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 56.8% units went through – 14/1, 2/1* & 8/1
Race 2: 55.7% of the remaining units when through – 7/2*, 9/2 & 5/1
Race 3: 7.1% of the remaining units went through – 16/1, 12/1, 33/1 & 66/1 (7/2)
Race 4: 5.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/1, 7/1 & 33/1 (2/9)
Race 5: 56.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 9/4*
Race 6: 30.8% of the units secured the dividend – 33/1, 9/2*, 12/1 & 14/1
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (1.30): 12 (Samcro) & 11 (Next Destination)
Leg 2 (2.10): 9 (Monalee), 6 (Dounikos) & 4 (Black Corton)
Leg 3 (2.40): 15 (Springtown Lake), 12 (Fixe Le Kap) & 5 (River Frost)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Min) & 2 (Altior)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Cause Of Causes), 9 (Josies Orders) & 13 (Urgent De Gregaine)
Leg 6 (4.40): 21 (Grand Sancy), 22 (Eragon De Chaney, 1 (Casa Tall) & 2 (Mitchouka)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Willie Mullins has won four of the last ten renewals (Willie saddled the 16/1 runner up six years ago for good measure) whilst six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 11-5 during the last 16 years, statistics which brings NEXT DESTINATION straight into the mix, though Ruby’s mount might have some trouble getting past SAMCRO who looks set to become Gordon Elliott’s first Festival winner this year. Gordon will have been delighted with his third placed horse in the Champion Hurdle yesterday ay 25/1 (his first runner in the race), a position which two of his other six runners on the opening day occupied. Cheltenham is a place which brings you down to earth very quickly however, with Gordon’s other four representatives all failing to complete the course in their respective events.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—7 winners—9 placed—7 unplaced. First three in the betting: 70 runners--13 winners--21 placed--36 unplaced.
2.10: Seven-year-olds have run riot in this RSA event in recent times, having won nine of the last eleven renewals, whilst also securing 19 of the last 27 renewals. Three representatives look to stand out from the crowd in terms of win and each way perspectives, with MONALEE looking likely to win from my viewpoint, closely followed home by DOUNIKOS and (possibly) BLACK CORTON at half decent odds.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—7 winners—7 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 70 runners--11 winners--22 placed--37 unplaced.
2.50: 11 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 11-0 or less, whilst horses in the lower sector of the handicap have secured 16 of the total of 24 renewals of the Coral Cup thus far. Six-year-olds have won six of the last 17 renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a ‘short list’ of SPRINGTOWN LAKE, FIXE LE KAP, RIVER FROST and TOPOFTHEGAME.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—1 winner—5 placed—18 unplaced. First three in the betting: 78 runners--5 winners--19 placed--54 unplaced.
3.30: 14 of the last 18 winners of the Champion Chase have emerged from the front three in the betting, the other gold medallists having started at 16/1, 11/1 and 10/1 (twice). Until the weekend, this event looked fairly cut and Dried with ALTIOR expected to win readily with DOUVAN probably heading for the ‘Ryanair’ event on Thursday. All that has changed now with the scare relating to Altior at the weekend, which might have influenced the Mullins camp to change direction with Douvan. Either way, the horse which has been unaffected by all this is MIN who could emerge as the value for money call given the circumstances. There is rarely ‘smoke without fire’ which suggests that even money (thereabouts) no longer represents value in Altior who would otherwise have been my call.
Favourite factor: Fate of the favourites: 24 market leaders—7 winners—5 placed—12 unplaced. First three in the betting: 68 runners: 16 winners--22 placed--30 unplaced.
4.10: The unique cross country event was the first race to be added to the fixture in order to create a fourth day of the meeting back in 2005. The race has been won by an Irish trainer in 11 of the 13 years to date, dominated by Enda Bolger who has saddled five winners and nine placed horses. The pick of Enda’s horses this time around will hopefully prove to be JOSIES ORDERS under Nina Carberry, though CAUSE OF CAUSES is the call to repeat last year’s success. CAUSE OF CAUSES has won at the Festival in each of the last three years which not many horses achieve, albeit in different events. Speculative each way investors could do worse than consider the merits of URGENT DE GREGAINE at around the 16/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the 13 contests to date (eight of the other ten market leaders finished out of the frame), whilst ten gold medallists emerged from the front three in the betting.
4.50: A fiendishly difficult Placepot finale in all honesty and if you don’t believe yours truly, take a look at the favourite stats below! I’m not going to bury you in waffle (other than the fact that eight of the last nine winners have carried 11-2 or less); suffice to suggest that I am banking on GRAND SANCY, ERAGON DE CHANEY, CASA TALL and MITCHOUKA to see if we can secure the toteplacepot dividend, hoping we are live going into the sixth and final leg of our favourite wager. I have included some speculative types, hoping to land a big dividend!
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame since the last favourite prevailed back in 2010. Five of the last six gold medallists were returned at 40/1--33/1—33/1—25/1—25/1!
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Cheltenham card on Wednesday:
18 runners—Willie Mullins
4—Henry De Bromhead
+ 50 different trainers who each saddle one or two runners on the card
121 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £19.70 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced
Huntingdon: £297.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £84.60 – 6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced