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Stat of the Day, 5th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.05 Stratford : Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG fell at 9/4 (Led, driven and clear when fell at last)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 4, 3m Handicap Chase for 4yo+ on Good ground, worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old has been on cracking form this year over hurdles finishing 11113 and now reverts back tot he bigger obstacles off a mark 10lbs lower than his hurdling rating. Of those five hurdle races this year, today's jockey Harry Stock has been in the saddle for all five starts and these also include of note today...

  • 2 wins & 1 place at 2m7.5f and beyond, so stamina should be fine
  • a win and a place from 2 Class 3 outings, suggesting that he's plenty good enough for a Class 4 contest,
  • where he is 2 from 2 this year

He is trained by Martin Keighley, who from a small number of runners has historically done well at this venue, winning 16 of 103 (15.5% SR) since the start of 2008, generating profits of 104pts (+101% ROI) along the way and these include of relevance today...

  • within 60 days of their last run : 14/74 (18.9%) for 106.2pts (+143.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/61 (19.7%) for 20pts (+32.8%)
  • 2016-18 : 8/28 (28.6%) for 26.65pts (+95.2%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/26 (34.6%) for 14.8pts (+57.1%)
  • after a top 3 finish LTO : 9/25 (36%) for 38.4pts (+153.8%)
  • and 9 yr olds are 5/10 (50%) for 28.6pts (+286%)

...AND...from the above : 2016-18 + Class 4 + within 60 days of last run + odds of 5/2 to 6/1 = 6/8 (75% SR) for 28.95pts (+361.9% ROI), with 9 yr olds winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 12.82pts (+427.2%), including a win by Mr Mafia here back in June!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.40pm on Monday evening. There's plenty of 3/1 BOG elsewhere too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 25th

WINDSOR – JUNE 25 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £701.90 (6 favourites: No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 3.7 units went through – 22/1 – 16/1 – 20/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 89.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 66/1 – 10/11*

Race 3: 54.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 6/4*

Race 4: 29.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 13/8*

Race 5: 24.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 11/4 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 3/1 (9/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 6 (Cent Flying), 2 (Spot Lite) & 3 (Spanish Star)

Leg 2 (6.40): 11 (Swiper), 5 (Glory) & 9 (Storm Shelter)

Leg 3 (7.10): 2 (Bella Ferrari) & 6 (Edge Of The World)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Buffer Zone) & 5 (Perfect Hustler)

Leg 5 (8.10): 1 (Desert Path), 5 (Morning Sky) & 2 (Candidate)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Worth Waiting) & 2 (Contrive)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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 6.10: CENT FLYING is ten pounds better in with SPOT LITE for a minimum margin defeat on Bath form earlier in the year.  It would not be wise to take that form line too seriously given the different format of the two tracks but even so, the weights and measures act offers the nod to the first named William Muir raider, on principle if nothing else.  Bookmakers have choked on cigars for as long as man can recall when such scenarios have been on place, only for the form lines to become as twisted as Alfred Hitchcock plots down the years.  Should both runners fall wide of the required mark (entirely possible at this level), connections of SPANISH STAR should prove to be the main beneficiaries.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite sent the majority of punters home happy, given that twelve months ago, this was the last race on the card.

 

6.40: Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue.  Tom saddles STORM SHELTER this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride.  That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between SWIPER and GLORY who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting).  Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than BLESSED TO IMPRESS I’ll wager, though BELLA FERRARI and EDGE OF THE WORLD should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  The pair is listed in order of preference, given that the 6/1 quote in a couple of places this morning offers half decent ‘bet to nothing’ prospects about the George Scott’s raider who is a pound better off with that rival on Leicester form last time out, when George’s Bated Breath filly was making her handicap debut.  That said, Ralph Beckett sent one horse up to Pontefract to winning effect yesterday and his hat trick seeker EDGE OF THE WORLD looks set to run her race again on these terms.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Windsor programme.

 

7.40: Ten of the twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which suggest that Kimifive (from 8-6) might struggle against his five rivals this event.  The pick of the relevant quintet will hopefully prove to be BUFFER ZONE, though those working from a working man’s wage might care to row in with Jeremy Noseda’s each way option, namely PERFECT HUSTLER who is closely matched with the hot favourite via two-year-old form.  Jeremy has suffered something of a well-documented traumatic year, though it’s worth noting that his 8/28 record since February is a (29%) ratio which most trainers would settle for.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/1—Buffer Zone (good)

 

8.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6, though even this self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ is taking on the figures this time around with DESERT PATH.  Amanda Perret’s top weight is still on offer at 9/2 at the time of writing, a price that I snapped up in the dead of night, presuming that the odds would not last too long.  MORNING SKYE and CANDIDATE have both been well placed by their respective connections, though DESRT PATH represents a far better chance than the 18% ‘probability quote’ by the layers this morning from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the last 21 years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Desert Path (good)

 

8.40: Starlight Mystery represents some value for money at around the 9/1 mark this morning in the Placepot finale, though the safest options to secure another dividend appear to be WORTH WAITING and CONTRIVE. David Lanigan’s raider WORTH WAITING is the option that I would take if money arrives for the Bated Breath filly, given that a great number of David’s winners are well backed.  Without holding that potential edge by writing this analysis fourteen hours ahead of the race, I will just have to be patient and see what support transpires.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last the previous year (2016 - £455.90)

Despite five winning favourites in the relevant Placepot events, one race did the damage.

Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance.

As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 12th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £14.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 62.0% units went through – 6/5* - 9/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 74.6% of the remaining units when through – 15/2 – 2/1* - 7/2

Race 3: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 9/2 – 25/1

Race 4: 49.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 4/1** - 33/1 (4/1**)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 2/1*

Race 6: 63.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 7/4*

 

  • Mal’s last five Placepot permutations have been successful, albeit some days showed a loss against stakes. That said, a profit over the five days was established.

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Certain Lad) & 1 (Urban Icon)

Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Wufud) & 5 (Power Of Darkness)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Jurz), 4 (Pilot Wings) & 1 (Honourbound)

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Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Lucifugous), 6 (Quick Recovery) & 14 (Scimitar)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Sweet Charity), 1 (Burgonet), 4 (Last Enchantment) & 2 (Fabulous Red)

Leg 6 (4.30): 10 (Recordman) & 8 (King Lud)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: The first point to mention is that there are no course winners on today’s Salisbury Placepot card, in case you thought that the omission was an oversight!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that there seems very little reason in opposing the two winners in the field who look likely to finish in the frame at the very least, namely CERTAIN LAD and URBAN ICON.  The favourite factor below backs up this theory with the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, mainly because of Mick Channon’s great record here this season, his ratio standing at 4/10 before today’s play.  I guess for that reason alone, we should not entirely rule Mick’s ‘second string’ (Dr Smolder) out of the equation.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: The same scenario is in place for race two as was the case in the opening event, with two horses dominating the market as dawn breaks over the city of Bristol this morning.  WUFUD is much shorter than POWER OF DARKNESS at the time of writing though I’ll wager there will not be much daylight between the pair at the jamstick.  The Marcus Tregoning comment about Sir Titan at Goodwood on Sunday proved to be spot on and the same scenario might be in place regarding Power Of Darkness this afternoon.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.

 

3.00: Talking of Marcus Tregoning, the trainer has a 25/1 chance involved here and HONOURBOUND might outrun those odds with the trainer having scored with two of his last three runners.  That said, JURZ and PILOT WINGS could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest as respective trainers Roger Varian and Roger Charlton meet head on again at Salisbury.  Their totals at Salisbury down the years; Varian (21% strike rate via 17 winners) & Charlton; 17% S/R via 69 gold medallists.  For the record, Marcus Tregoning’s ratio at Salisbury is a 12% strike rate via 22 winners.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby there is no history involved in this novice event.

 

3.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored when carrying a minimum burden of nine stones and after taking potential ‘allowances’ into account, ten horses are left to assess.  I’m opting for LUCIFUGOUS, QUICK RECOVERY and SCIMITAR to get us safely through a trappy contest.  David O’Meara has not come to close to winning via his previous four runners at the track down the years but that said, LUCIFUGOUS attracted support overnight and looking at the stats below in the favourite factor column, anything is possible in this event!

Favourite factor: There are three successful market leaders to report from the last decade though be warned, as other gold medallists scored at 40/1, 20/1, 16/1, 14/1, 10/1 (twice) & 9/1 during the period.

 

4.00: Three-year-olds will make it seven winners in a row in this contest today, with all four declarations hailing from the vintage.  Regular readers will be well aware of my stand in these open looking ‘win only’ events, whereby I will offer all four runners into the Placepot equation, hoping that the winner carries the least amount of units into the race.  If the proverbial gun was pointed at my head to name the winner, I guess I would opt for Sweet Charity, albeit oh so marginally.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged in the last ten years though the race from a punter’s perspective is not as bad as the previous contest on the card, as the average priced winner is this event was 9/2 during the study period.  Half of the market leaders (5/10) finished in the frame.

 

4.30: The overnight trade price quote of 4/1 for RECORDMAN might prove to be somewhat fanciful by flag fall, with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dubawi having attracted plenty of money since yesterday evening. Six of Saeed’s last fourteen runners have won, whilst 52% of his 31 winners at Salisbury down the year have hailed from his (relevant) three-year-old representatives.  KING LUD might prove to be the rival to offer most resistance on the run to the line.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new contest on the Salisbury programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 5th June

FONTWELL – JUNE 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £22.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 53.6% units went through – 7/2 & 11/4*

Race 2: 73.4% of the remaining units when through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 3: 94.5% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 15/8

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/1

Race 5: 27.2% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/2 (2/1)

Race 6: 62.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/7* (Win only)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Westerbee) & 2 (Carraigin Aonair)

Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Diakali) & 1 (Our Three Sons)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Peculiar Places), 1 (Double Treasure) & 3 (Pontresina)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Innocent Girl) & 7 (Brown Bear)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Bagging Turf), 9 (Roparta Avenue) & 1 (Mogestic)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Mason Dixon), 1 (Chantra Rose) & 7 (Findusatgorcombe)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: It is not usual to find (respectfully) the name of Seamus Mullins featured in the top ten NH trainers list in terms of the number of winners this season (eight in total), but that is a fact as we contemplate a disappointing day of sport this morning.  Only the race planners will know why we have three NH cards on offer today and none on the flat (turf racing).  Just two horses have been declared in the first race at Bangor and I wonder how many would be entered in a flat (turf) race at Sandown on semi frozen ground in January?  It beggars belief with the bowl out as they say oop north!  Back to Seamus at Fontwell by suggesting this his entry WESTERBEE can go close in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  The ‘dark horse’ in the race is CARRAIGIN AONAIR from the shrewd Olly Murphy yard which knows how to place its horses to winning effect – and then some!

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Favourite factor: The opening race is a new contest on the Fontwell card.

 

2.45: This is not a bad turnout at all, though whether a winner will emerge as Black Corton did last year before setting out a grand sequence of efforts we will have to wait and see.  If that scenario evolves, it would likely stem from a success for DIAKALI who represents ‘local’ trainer Gary Moore.  Richard Johnson takes the ride which is only the fifth time that the champion jockey has ridden for Gary (without a winner) during the last five years.  That said, the partnership has teamed up to winning effect nine times down the years and the booking takes the eye today.  OUR THREE SONS has less to prove and appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions having won their respective events.

 

3.15: Jamie Snowden saddles Our Three Sons in the previous race on the card and the trainer has definite claims here as well, having declared DOUBLE TREASURE to contest a race over timber for the first time in the thick end of two years.  Jamie’s seven-year-old inmate was running of an official mark of 108 in those days which gives him something to find here against the likes of PONTRESINA and (to a fashion) Present Destiny.  That said, Gavin Sheehan’s mount has subsequently improved a great deal though with PECULIAR PLACES having attracted overnight support, we can take nothing for granted in an interesting heat.

Favourite factor: All three (8/13, 4/6 & 15/8) favourites have prevailed thus far.

 

3.45: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and lone vintage representative BROWN BEAR brings plenty of fast ground form into the race, whereby Nick Gifford’s local raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts turning for home on the final circuit at this unique venue.  The figure of eight course (steeplechases) is the only track like it in the country, since Windsor ceased its interest in NH racing – wait for it – twenty years ago!  I have a wonderful ‘obituary’ article about the day that Windsor closed its doors on the jump racing scene if you would like to contact me via a direct message on my Twitter page – it is well worth a read. Back to this event by suggesting that INNOCENT GIRL is the threat to the seven-year-old record in the contest.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have obliged, though the other two (even money & 2/1) market leaders finished out of the frame during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Innocent Girl (good)

3/9—Brown Bear (2 x good & good to firm)

 

4.15: Seamus Mullins was mentioned positively in despatches earlier and the trainer has another chance on the card with MOGESTIC, though Gary Moore has a potential ‘springer’ in the contest having declared BAGGING TURF with claims on the best of his form from yesteryear.  ROPARTA AVENUE has his ground (his only two victories have been recorded on good going) and can rarely be left out of the equation in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured Placepot positions though that said, three of the four gold medallists were returned at odds of 20/1, 12/1 & 8/1 alongside a successful 5/2 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)

 

4.45: MASON DIXON looks a typical ‘rerouted’ Tim Vaughan raider ready to pounce to winning effect, especially with Richard Johnson having been booked to ride.  There are worse outsiders on the card than FINDUSATGORCOMBE on this ground, whilst CHANTARA ROSE is a definite player with Peter Bowen having saddled four of this last five runners to winning effect.  Peter’s nine-year-old-mate is his only runner until Friday (earliest) this week.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight winners have been sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Champagne George (good to soft & soft)

2/7—Lee Side Lady (soft & heavy)

1/1—Findusatgorcombe (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

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Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 13th May

PLUMPTON – MAY 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £163.10 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 52.8% units went through – Evens* & 16/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 46.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 4: 45.5% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 20/1

Race 5: 47.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 17/2 – 9/2 (5/2)

Race 6: 40.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* (Win only event – 4 ran)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Jumping Jack) & 2 (Crushed)

Leg 2 (2.45): 10 (Sweet’N’Chic), 6 (Good News) & 5 (Now Listen here)

Leg 3 (3.15): 4 (Ballycoe), 3 (Darebin), 2 (The Fresh Prince) & 1 (Red Hanrahan)

Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Makethedifference), 3 (Kalaskadesemilley) & 9 (Austin Fryers)

Leg 5 (4.25): 2 (Whoshotwho) & 3 (Mellow Ben)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (King Cool), 4 (Remember Forever) & 5 (Hill Fort)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last thirteen contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013.  Unfortunately, last year’s only vintage representative was beaten but this time around, you have no chance of losing money because no five-year-olds have been declared. The stats become even more frustrating when you digest the fact that Gary Moore is only conspicuous by his absence despite saddling two of the last three winners! Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that JUMPING JACK should at least secure a Placepot position if he fails to win which is doubtful because at the time of writing, CRUSHED (the horse I suspected to be the main danger) is friendless on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (four winners), whilst 30 of the 40 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less.  That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them!  Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years.  Gary improved those stats last year by scoring with the even money favourite.

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2.45: This is the first of five races which witness 11 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, over a quarter of the list of declarations in those events.  This was the race which helped the Placepot to produce a half decent dividend last year.  That said, the pot was worth £6.62 (after deductions) following the first two legs and with a win only race later on the card, holders of live Placepot units might have thought they were in a for a great dividend later in the day.  Back to basics by informing that seven of the last eight winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which suggests that SWEET’N’CHIC should be there or thereabouts, though the 7/2 trade press quote looks a tad skinny.  KEEP TO THE BEAT is one of the other two qualifiers via the weight trend to consider, though more logical winners include GOOD NEWS and NOW LISTEN HERE according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4.  Four of the last five winners scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1, whilst a 20/1 chance filled the runner-up position twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Cassivellanus (heavy)

 

3.15: This was the Placepot finale last year when the favourite won at 11/8 in a win only event.  Out of interest, the winner was 6/4 in terms of the remaining Placepot units going into the final leg.  These win only Placepot events tend to reflect the starting prices unless there are real outsiders in the contest.  One recent event I focussed on concerned a horse which was backed down to 7/1 from double those odds (without winning) which was a 52/1 chance via Placepot percentages!  With fifteen of the last sixteen winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just four) in the line up, with BALLYCOE being the exception on this occasion.  As the outsider of the party in the dead of night, I’m certainly not ruling out his chance, whereby I will include all four runners before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 15 renewals of this contest have been won by market leaders.  Half (8/16) of the jollies have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ballycoe (good)

 

3.50: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals (vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around) though arguably their main hope AUSTIN FRYERS has plenty to prove following an indifferent set of ‘recent’ results.  Either way, preference is for NAME THE DIFFERENCE (subject of overnight support) and KALASKADESEMILLEY.  GIN AND TONIC would have also made the short list but for noticing that his ratio of placed efforts between April and September stands at 0/11.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via seven renewals to date, statistics which include four successful (7/2, 2/1, 15/8 & even money) market leaders.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/4—Austin Fryers (good)

1/3—Brother Bennett (good to soft)

 

4.25:  DING DING was third in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting two years ago before finishing last of the seven finishers in this event twelve months back.  Sheena West’s seven year old registered a course ratio of 3/9 before that contest prior to the updated figures you can see below.  Nicky Henderson saddled a well beaten runner in the contest last year, whereby slight preference is for WHOSHOTWHO and MELLOW BEN over Brave Eagle who might represent poor value for money, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth race:

4/14—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—San Pedro De Senam (heavy)

2/16—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

 

4.55: A teaser of a finale in our closing event, with my short list consisting of KING COOL, REMEMBER FOREVER and HILL FORT, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.

Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished second (claiming Placepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before the 10/3 favourite went on the missing list two years ago.  Thankfully (for favourite backers), the 13/8 market leader obliged twelve months on.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/7—Remember Forever (good to firm)

3/20—Flugzeug (good to firm – good – good to soft)

1/8—Roparta Avenue (good)

1/5—Charming Lad (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 3rd May

REDCAR – MAY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.40 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 73.7% units went through – 7/2 & 15/8*

Race 2: 53.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/13* & 11/2

Race 3: 91.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 15/8 – 14/1

Race 4: 57.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* & 11/4

Race 5: 69.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 3/1* - 8/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4* - 9/2 – 11/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Tarrzan) & 7 (Willow Brook)

Leg 2 (2.40): 5 (Pretty Baby) & 4 (Gild Stone)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Robsdelight) & 3 (Ekanse)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Maksab), 3 (Completion) & 2 (Poet’s Prince)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Shovel It On) & 2 (Al Khan)

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Leg 6 (4.40): 10 (Cristal Spirit), 1 (Canadian George) & 5 (Nibras Galaxy)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Let’s start with calling a spade a spade shall we by suggesting that there is some turgid sport on offer today.  That said, favourite backers had no cause to complain at the corresponding meeting last year and Mick Channon should be able to get them off to a decent start at the first time of asking today having declared his third placed debut representative TARRZAN who ran at Dundalk.  It’s disappointing to see Mick having to drop his new inmate into a seller which I guess should serve as a warning point for anyone looking to dive in too heavily his afternoon.  WILLOW BROOK receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor:

Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions (stats include two winners at 8/11 and 4/6), though detectives are still combing the area looking for the inaugural unplaced 11/8 market leader.

 

2.40: Kevin Ryan won with all three of his runners yesterday and with GOLD STONE having won on her second start at Beverley the last day under similar (good) conditions, Kevin’s Havana Gold filly should go close here, albeit southern raiders PRETTY BABY and LEFT ALONE are obvious dangers.  The first named William Haggas raider ran well enough at York to suggest that her subsequent Chelmsford victory was predictable.  William’s Orpen filly has a chance to secure a success here en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Redcar card.

 

3.10: Silvestre De Sousa attempts to ride his first winner for Gay Kelleway at the ninth attempt here having been booked to ride ROBSDELIGHT who has attracted money on the exchanges overnight.  We’re not talking massive investments you understand but on this card (or anywhere today I suspect), it will not take a great ammont of cash to move markets.  EKANSE carries famous colours and it’s worth noting that his mum Esterlina won on debut over a slightly longer trip, albeit she failed to add to that victory via four subsequent assignments.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess on the Redcar programme.

 

3.40: A 16 ounce ‘hike’ for a decent run by MAKSAB at ‘headquarters’ last time out should ensure that Mick Channon’s other runner at this meeting (aside from Tarrzan in the opening event) will get involved at the business end of proceedings, especially as De Sousa retains the ride from Newmarket with (seemingly) the jockey having been offered an input as to where the three-year-old Makfi colt was going to run next.  COMPLETION and POET’S PRINCE add interest to this Class 4 contest.  Sha La La La Lee’s Wolverhampton success does not warrant a 13/8 price from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Racing at this venue has long since left me cold and this many new races on a card hardly changes my mind relating to this racecourse.

 

4.10: The terms and conditions of this event suggest that SHOVEL IT ON is exactly what favourite backs might to this afternoon relating to the David Evans three-year-old Elusive Pimpernel gelding.  Only AL KHAN represents any kind of threat, a scenario which increases given Kevin Ryan’s hat trick yesterday which means that the trainer has saddled five of his last seven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the only course winner on the card:

1/7—Gaelic Wizard (good to soft)

 

4.40: Although plenty of respect is offered to CRISTAL SPIRIT (particularly from a Placepot perspective) value for money might be found elsewhere given the declarations of CANADIAN GEORGE (one of several interesting bookings for De Sousa on the card) and NIBRAS GALAXY.  It will be interesting to see if the exchange money for Moltoire grows as the hours tick by.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new race.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 30th April

THIRSK – APRIL 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £364.40 (7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

For readers who want to find the corresponding results for last year – look for Sunday 30th April details.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Thirsk: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Me Before You) & 5 (Mecca’s Spirit)

Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Dutch Coed) & 2 (Redrosezorro)

Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Motahassen) & 12 (Majestic Stone)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Bacacarat) & 7 (Tamkeen)

Leg 5 (4.05): 10 (Pennsylvania Dutch), 9 (Kupa River) & 11 (My Name Is Rio)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Battle Commence) & 10 (Rotherhithe)

Suggested stake: 96 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Point of order – Given the horrendous weather forecast for certain areas today, limited stakes should be applied from my viewpoint; hence the small permutation – by my standards!

 

1.50: MECCA’S SPIRIT could be a different proposition as a three-year-old having offered little encouragement via four juvenile assignments.  I just prefer the chance of ME BEFORE YOU however, especially as Daniel Tudhope has been offered the ride.  Daniel was set to rise to massive stardom a few years ago and though he is riding his fair share of winners, great things have yet to materialise, though it is (comparatively) early days in his career.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (via three renewals) has secured a Placepot position thus far, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

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2.20: Top weight has not stopped money trickling through on the exchanges overnight for DUTCH COED, albeit a claimer has reduced the burden.  That said, apprentices have also been booked for the horses just below the tentative (each way) selection whereby the reduction in pounds and ounces is not quite as useful as appears at first glance.  REDROSEZORRO is one of the horses in question and Eric Alston’s raider has the assistance of Rachel Richardson in the plate as the Foxwedge gelding goes in search of his four-timer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourite just missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Redrosezorro (good to soft)

1/7—Space War (good to firm)

 

2.55: MOTAHASSEN has his first run for Declan Carroll here and with Daniel Tudlope coming in for another potentially decent ride at the meeting, it is no surprise that there has been money in the dead of night for the four-year-old Lonhro gelding.  Declan has saddled two of his last six runners to winning effect (alongside a silver medallist during the period) and when the money is down, Declan’s raiders usually know what is asked of them.  MAJESTIC STONE is offered up as the potential danger.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.

 

3.30: Although the last nine runners saddled by Andrew Balding have all been beaten, three of his last five representatives have finished second in their respective events and Andrew’s three runners at the track on Monday should be respected accordingly.  The first of his southern based raiders is BACACARAT who seems to have been found an ideal opportunity to go close at the second time of asking this season.  Standing his way is TAMKEEN who would only need to make any normal amount of improvement from two to three (whatever that is) to make his presence felt in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Thirsk card.

 

4.05: MY NAME IS RIO could (I repeat could) have good to soft conditions to race on, the type of ground which brought about a course victory earlier in his career, whereby Conor Beasley’s mount might outrun his 25/1 quote at the time of writing.  PENNSYLVANIA DUTCH is another ‘outsider’ I could consider. Kevin Ryan has saddled two of his five runners here at Thirsk this season to winning effect and it is worth noting that this Dutch Art gelding has attracted a little support on the exchanges overnight. The other potential each way play in the race is KUPA RIVER according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Muscika (good)

1/7—My Name Is Rio (good to soft)

 

4.35: Money has arrived overnight for BATTLE COMMENCE and it’s worth noting that trainer David O’Meara has certainly started this season in far better form that he finished last term, albeit he is still to reach the high standards he set before the decline in set in.  ROTHERHITHE is the main threat if she can build on three solid silver medal efforts last season.

Favourite factor: Both of the (6/4 & 15/8) favourites have obliged to date.

 

Record of the course winners in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.35:

1/2—Melabi (good) – Won the race last year – too big at 25/1 for new (Micky Hammond) yard?

1/3—Dyna Might (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 20th April

NEWBURY – APRIL 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 61.8% units went through – 10/3* - 7/1 – 5/1

Race 2: 77.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/4** - 5/1 – 11/4**

Race 3: 71.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 7/2

Race 4: 16.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 28/1 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 5: 55.5% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 7/4* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 & 4/1 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Dave Dexter), 9 (Well Done Fox) & 1 (Azor Ahai)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Qaysar), 11 (Tallow) & 8 (Rogue)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Lah Ti Dah) & 1 (Arcadian Cat)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (A Monetofmadness), 2 (Just Glamorous) & 7 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Jukebox Jive), 9 (Champagne Champ) & 6 (Injam)

Leg 6 (4.35): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 4 (Bombyx)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

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1.50: Ralph Beckett cannot do a great deal wrong at present (recent ratio of 6/16) though his first time out runners in the juvenile sector during the last five years offer a strike rate of just 11% via five winners.  That said, this does not appear to be the strongest of two-year-old contests by Newbury standards whereby Ralph’s Stimulation colt DAVE DEXTER is included in the Placepot mix.  The money (what there was of it overnight) was for WELL DONE FOX, whilst AZOR AHAI completes my trio against the remaining seven runners.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed during the last nine contests, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists have been returned in single figures and at 10/1, the other winner during the ‘recent’ period could hardly have been classed as an extreme outsider.

 

2.25: With Richard Hannon having struck form of late and holding a decent chance in the opener with Well Done Fox, the trainer will be fancying his chances of extending the good run here, having declared both QAYSAR (dual winner from just three starts) and ROGUE who is the lone course winner in the line up.   The latter named raider looks a tad overpriced at 20/1 in a few places at the time of writing, albeit Richard’s Choisir colt QAYSAR deserves his place at the head of the market at the time of writing.  Arguably, I should not eliminate stable companion Oliver Reed from my list but I fancy the afore mentioned pair today.  TALLOW is the only horse from the current market front runners to have won on turf which is obviously a positive pointer towards the William Haggas raider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though those stats only include one successful market leader.  Indeed, the last two gold medallists scored at 25/1 and 14/1, whilst just four of the last eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/3—Rogue (good)

 

3.00: Markets like this can prove volatile and whispers emerge almost as soon as the gates open at a venue such as Newbury.  That said, there has to be some significance in the declaration of John Gosden’s Dubawi filly LAH TI DAH who is on offer at 33/1 for the Epsom Oaks as I pen this column.  John has enjoyed tremendous success at this meeting in recent years, yet Frankie’s mount is the only stable representative on the card this afternoon.  The experience already gained by ARCADIAN CAT could take Ralph Beckett’s Kittens Joy filly into the frame again.

Favourite factor: Although only two market leaders have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years, nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1 during the study period.  Six renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, whilst only one of the last four jollies has reached the frame.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and three of the five relevant entries today make appeal in one way or another, namely A MOMENTOFMADNESS, JUST GLAMOROUS and BLUE DE VEGA.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  That said, the each way 9/1 price of JUST GLAMOROUS is ‘winning the day’ as I consider a bet in this event aside from our favourite wager which covers the first six races on the card.  Most unusually, Ron Harris runs nine horses on the day, though only Just Glamorous has been directed towards Newbury, the other eight contenders all plying their trade at Bath this evening.  For the record, Ron has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: The last six winners have been returned at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include two winning favourites. That said, the other four recent market leaders all finished out with the washing.

 

4.05: Three each way types grab my attention in this event who are listed in order of preference as JUKEBOX JIVE, CHAMPAGNE CHAMP and INJAM.  Anthony Honeyball’s first named raider has the assistance of John Egan in the saddle and this underrated pilot can add another winner to his tally which has largely gone unnoticed down the years.  If you look through the record books, you will surprised just how many trainers use this jockey, resulting in really impressive strike rates for the said handlers of which Anthony is one.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 joint favourites snared gold and bronze medals last year alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Jukebox Jive (good to soft)

1/1—Keep In Line (soft)

 

4.40: John Gosden has won the last three renewals of this event and the fact that the trainer is not represented this time around has been received as a major blow.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that the connections of TIGRE DU TERRE and BOMBYX are the likeliest beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years.  That said, the last five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 12th April

AINTREE – APRIL 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £159.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 30.3% units went through – 5/1 & 4/1 (6/5)

Race 2: 91.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 3: 35.7% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 2/1*

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 8/1

Race 5: 13.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 7/1 – 40/1 (7/4)

Race 6: 41.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 15/2 – 6/1*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 3 (Cyrname)

Leg 2 (2.20): 7 (We Have A Dream) & 1 (Apples Shakira)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (Might Bite), 8 (Tea For Two) & 2 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Leg 4 (3.25): 3 (Cyrus Darius) & 9 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.05): 14 (On The Fringe), 1 (Bainsalow), 9 (Grand Vision) & 20 (Wells De Lune)

Leg 6 (4.40): 8 (Kings Socks), 9 (Bun Doran), 10 (Doitforthevillage) & 13 (Baby King)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nicky Henderson is the only represented trainer to have won this race twice over thus far, with the Seven Barrows stable represented by BRAIN POWER on this occasion.  Always wishing to impart with the truth however, Nicky’s 6/5 favourite in the race last year (Top Notch) missed out on a Placepot position.  Paul Nicholls has dominated the first day of the meeting during the last seven years (though no gold medallists in each of the last two years), with Paul having saddled eight winners during the period.  Paul has declared CYRNAME with definite claims, though Colin Tizzard has done his best to stop the ‘warmongers’ making this a two horse event by offering the green light to FINIAN’S OSCAR.

Favourite factor: The only successful favourite (via nine renewals) scored in 2013 at odds of 6/5, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far. All nine winners have scored at a top price of 11/2 to date.

Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (good)

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2.20: Nicky Henderson's disappointing first day results in recent years were highlighted in this race three years ago when Nicky saddled the well beaten (4/6) market leader.  Nicky saddled a 4/9 winner twelve months ago and the trainer plays a really strong hand here, having declared both WE HAVE A DREAM and APPLES SHAKIRA.  Nicky’s latter named raider suddenly found himself outpaced having travelled well for a long way in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and it remains to be seen if the addition of a hood will bring about a return to winning form.  Accordingly, I have to lean towards WE HAVE A DREAM, particularly as Nicky swerved the trials and tribulations of Cheltenham, making his gelding a fresher horse in his attempt at landing a nap hand (five successive wins), albeit at the highest level.  If there is a ‘dark horse’ to be aware of in the field, the French raider BEAU GOSSE looks the type to potentially fit the bill.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen contests, with eleven market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.  Ten winners during the last thirteen years were returned at 13/2 or less.

 

2.50: It remains to be seen if MIGHT BITE had had enough time to recover from his exploits in the Cheltenham Gold Cup which was the thick end of a month ago.  How time flies when the rain pours leading to abandoned meetings!  Thankfully, we have reasonable ground in Liverpool for the Grand National Festival which should ensure that Nicky Henderson’s beaten favourite has, at least, a chance of gaining compensation.  That said, the more I look at the Cheltenham race, the conclusion occurs that the third horse would have beaten Might Bite in another 100 yards whereby an odds on price looks to skinny to take from my viewpoint.  I appreciate his chance from a Placepot perspective however, though last year’s winner TEA FOR TWO and CLAN DES OBEAUX both offer some each way value at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Just three favourites have prevailed during the last sixteen years though that said, thirteen winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.  Four of the last nine favourites have finished out of the frame.

Aintree record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Definitly Red (heavy)

1/1—Might Bite (good)

1/2—Sizing Codelco (good)

1/2—Tea For Two (2 x good)

 

3.25: SUPASUNDAE ran well enough when outpointed in the ‘Stayers’ at Prestbury Park last month but at even money (thereabouts), Jessica Harrington’s raider is easily opposed.  You can readily ignore the 20/1 trade press price about CYRUS DARIUS who could be backed into half of those odds if the current momentum is maintained later this morning.  THE NEW ONE won this event four years ago and looks primed to go close at a track which suits the Twiston-Davies representative.  My Tent Or Yours is another who will run his usual game race, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Only six favourites have won during the last 22 years, though 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fourth even on the card:

1/1—Cyrus Darius (good to soft)

1/4—My Tent Or Yours (good to soft)

2/5—The New One (2 x good)

 

4.05: Luck in running is an obvious pre-requisite in this event but that said, favourites have a half decent record looking back over the last 24 years (see stats below).  13 of the last 15 winners have been aged in double figures, whereby my ‘short list’ consists of dual winner ON THE FRINGE (beaten at 7/4 in the race twelve months ago), BAINSALOW and GRAND VISION.  If you are in need of a big priced winner after four luckless events, WELLS DE LUNE could give you a decent run for your money at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites have won this event during the last 26 years during which time, 22 gold medallists have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Indeed, in a race which invariably looks difficult on paper, it's worth noting that five of the last seven winners have been returned at a top price of 4/1. That said, only five of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—On The Fringe (good to soft & soft)

 

4.40: Eleven of the last twelve (and 14 of the last 16) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1, whereby KINGS SOCKS, BUN DORAN and DOITFORTHEVILLAGE form my overnight short list.   The reserve nomination is awarded to BABY KING, a stable companion of last year’s beaten (placed) favourite BUN DORAN.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders have prevailed via the last sixteen contests, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  That said, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-20/1-16/1.

Aintree record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Theinval (good to soft)

1/1—The Flying Portrait (good)

1/1—Baby King (soft)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.15:

1/1—Posh Trish (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 10th April

SOUTHWELL (NH) – APRIL 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.0% units went through – 6/1 – 2/1* - 11/2

Race 2: 45.8% of the remaining units when through – 10/3* & 5/1

Race 3: 93.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 12/1 – 7/1

Race 4: 37.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 10/3 (3/1)

Race 5: 73.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 50/1 – 7/2

Race 6: 53.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 – 16/1 – 3/1 (5/2)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Southwell (NH): 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Mondo Cane), 4 (Ulis De Vassy) & 1 (Beni Light)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Achille) & 3 (Riddlestown)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Casa Tall) & 2 (Whoshotwho)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Sandhurst Lad), 4 (Western Wave) & 1 (Shinooki)

Leg 5 (4.05): 3 (Pineapple Rush), 4 (With Discretion) & 2 (Phoeniciana)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Cosmic King) & 6 (Tickanrun)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: More Placepot success yesterday, albeit we ‘only’ claimed one fifth of the £190.50 Ludlow dividend. Although MONDO CANE has only win via 12 assignments at the track to date, it’s worth noting that the eleven-year-old has finished ‘in the three’ six times down the years, whilst the success was gained under soft conditions.  Both of the course victories for ULIS DE VASSY were won on soft going, whilst BENI LIGHT completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.

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Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader via three renewals though that said, two favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

1/12—Mondo Cane (soft)

2/3—Ulis De Vassy (2 x soft)

2/25—That’s The Deal (good & good to soft)

 

2.30: ACHILLE looks a typical soft/heavy raider for Venetia Williams who saddled a couple of winners yesterday.  RIDDLESTOWN is the lone course winner in the field and though the trade press would have you believe that better ground would be appreciated by the eleven-year-old gelding, Riddlestown is a three time winner under soft conditions.  Unless the rain north of Watford becomes heavy, I believe it could be a close run affair between the two nominated thoroughbreds.

Favourite factor: Two of the three contests have been won by favourites though the other market leader finished out of the money.

Record of the course winner in the field:

7/24—Riddlestown (4 x good & 3 x soft)

 

3.00: It shows the quality of the rest of the horses in the field that good ground winner WHOSHOTWHO is rated heads and shoulders above this lot, aside from CASA TALL, with this pair fully expected to dominate proceedings well before the business end of proceedings comes into play.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Whoshotwho (good)

 

3.35: WESTERN WAVE and SHINOOKI are two alternative win and place options to SANDHURST LAD who I readily admit looks a more likely winner.  Richard Johnson’s mount is the first of three booked rides on the card for the champion jockey.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites via two renewals has claimed a Placepot position to date, albeit it was via a (10/3) victory.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Shinooki (good to soft)

 

4.05: WITH DISCRETION and PINEAPPLE RUSH are the likeliest winners of the contest though PHOENICIANA remains something thing of a dark horse on behalf of the Lucy Wadham team.  PINEAPPLE RUSH is Richard Johnson’s second ride on the card and is marginally preferred to WITH DISCRETION on this occasion/

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader prevailed.

 

4.35: There is plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue for TICKANRUN whereby James Bowen could add to his total of 50 winners which he has achieved in double quick time thus far.  COSMIC KING arguably stands in his way here making his first appearance for Fergal O’Brien who knows how to sweeten up new inmates to his yard – and then some!

Favourite factor: 7/4 and 5/2 favourites have been sunk without trace either side of the successful 7/5 market leader two years ago.

 

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

1/1—Katahdin (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 4th April

LINGFIELD – APRIL 4

 

This is a new meeting whereby there are no stats and facts on offer relating to favourites, leading trainers, past Placepot details etc., etc.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 4 (Ertidaad), 6 (Rattle On) & 5 (Rocksette)

Leg 2 (2.10): 1 (Mime Dance) & 2 (Bloodsweatandtears)

Leg 3 (2.45): 2 (Flavius Titus), 4 (Insurgence) & 1 (Tathmeen)

Leg 4 (3.15): 2 (Kalagia) & 3 (Haylah)

Leg 5 (3.45): 4 (Impart) & 2 (Newstead Abbey)

Leg 6 (4.15): 6 (Last Enchantment), 5 (Sweet Symphony) & 4 (Poetic Steps)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Last year’s Placepot dividends at Southwell and Kempton are listed at the foot of today’s column alongside the relevant breakdown of units for each leg twelve months ago + prices of placed horses and unplaced favourites

 

1.40: The early money on the exchanges in the dead of night suggest that ERTIDAAD, RATTLE ON and ROCKSETTE should all figure prominently at the business end of proceedings.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing, with ERTIDAAD looking to record his second course win at the fourth attempt.  Trainer Suzi best recorded a 37% strike rate back in February via three winners and the stable could be ready to bounce back to winning ways today with a couple of inmates holding leading chances over the next few days from my viewpoint.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

7/33—Bertie Blu Boy

1/3—Ertidaad

1/3—Rattle On

3/31--Bookmaker

 

2.10: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, with MIME DANCE and BLOODSWATANDTEARS looking a cut above their rivals from the top of the handicap. This pair could dominate the finish of what appears to be the weaker heat of the two contests.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/15—Tabla

1/8—Binky Blue

 

2.45: Roger Varian’s last seven runners have been beaten but I’m not offering that stat from a negative viewpoint regarding any concern for stable representatives.  No, it’s more a case of Roger champing at the bit to put the recent record behind him whereby Roger’s Lethal Force colt FLAVIUS TITUS is the first name on the team sheet ahead of course winner INSURGENCE and TATHMEEN.  The latter named Exceed And Excel colt represents Richard Hannon who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect.

Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card:

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1/1—Insurgence

2/5—Bungee Jump

 

3.15: Frankie Dettori’s last mount was for Richard Hannon back on the 24th of last month when the team paired up to winning effect and the bandwagon rolls on here with HAYLAH.  Whether they will cope with KALAGIA is another matter with Mark Johnston’s inmate proving popular with investors overnight.

 

3.45: Trainer David O’Meara has endured a poor run of results for several months now by his high standards, though recent results suggest that the Yorkshire outfit are ready to fight back, their last two runners having won.  It’s typical of David’s luck over the last six months that meetings are being called off here, there and everywhere relating to turf venues, though the chance for his inmate IMPART is there for all to see this afternoon.  Conversely, Michael Herrington has been enjoying a fine period and his winning ways might not be over just yet having declared NEWSTEAD ABBEY in this grade/company.

 

4.15: Eve Johnson Houghton enjoyed a fabulous 2017 and there is every chance that the trainer can prove that period was far from a flash in pan judged on some early winners this term.  LAST ENCHANTMENT is the first name on the team sheet accordingly ahead of SWEET SYMPHONE and POETIC STEPS.

 

Record of the four course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

2/6—Taverner

1/7—Black Caesar

1/3—Natalie Express

5/16--Clement

Record of the course winner in the eighth contest at 5.15:

1/2—Night Story

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

SOUTHWELL (March 29th last year):

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 62.9% units went through – 9/2, 10/3* & 7/1

Race 2: 99.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/10* & 4/1

Race 3: 46.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 & 6/1 (15/8)

Race 4: 73.9% of the remaining units went through – 2/1** (twice)

Race 5: 47.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* & 4/1

Race 6: 54.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4, 9/4* & 14/1

 

KEMPTON (April 5th last year):

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £11.60 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 37.1% units went through – 16/1, 9/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 2: 92.6% of the remaining units when through – 1/3*, 20/1 & 4/1

Race 3: 92.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/4*, 9/4 & 33/1

Race 4: 61.7% of the remaining units went through – 2/1*, 7/1 & 8/1

Race 5: 76.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 2/1** & 2/1**

Race 6: 42.4% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/2

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 1st April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £22.80 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 76.0% units went through – 1/2* (Win only)

Race 2: 71.2% of the remaining units when through – 11/4 & 9/4*

Race 3: 35.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 5/2 & 9/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/3*, 7/2 & 10/1

Race 5: 98.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 & 4/7*

Race 6: 37.0% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1** & 9/1 (2/1**)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Mister Malarkey), 5 (Traffic Fluide) & 1 (Indian Hercules)

Leg 2 (2.45): 5 (Heurtevent), 2 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 3 (Champion Chase)

Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Lickpenny Larry) & 1 (Crafty Roberto)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Vado Forte), 3 (Jaisalmer) & 6 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 5 (4.20): 11 (Jumping Jack) & 7 (Pull Together)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (The Lion Dancer) & 4 (Two Hoots)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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2.15: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests and vintage representative MISTER MALARKEY seemingly has TRAFFIC FLUIDE to beat in the first race on the card.  Both horses have failed to live up to early expectations however, whereby INDIAN HERCULES is added into the Placepot mix for insurance purposes.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last eight renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Traffic Fluide (good to soft)

 

2.45:  Six of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-10 and HEURTEVENT might prove to be the value for money call in a trappy contest from my viewpoint.  Soft ground course winner FINNEGAN’S GARDEN demands respect in this grade/company, whilst CHAMPION CHASE in another potential winner in the field.

Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners have scored at 16/1 & 12/1, whilst five winners in total during the last twelve years have won at 9/1 or more.  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst six of the thirteen favourites secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

 

3.15: Chris Gordon has won with his last two runners in this race and yet this is one of just two events on the card where the trainer is not represented!  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that LICKPENNY LARRY must be the first name on the team sheet, given that Tom Gretton’s raider receives between eight and twenty two pounds from his four rivals here on what is likely to be desperate ground.  CRAFTY ROBERTO is offered up as the main threat despite his position at the top of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners in total scored at a top price of 9/2, whist three clear market leaders and one joint favourite obliged with five of the ten favourites finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

3.45: Five, six and seven-year-olds have won the last seven renewals between them and I fancy the trend will be extended this time around by the likes of VADO FORTE, heavy ground course winner JAISALMER and EARLY DU LEMO who only found one too good on his reappearance after a long break at Newbury nine days ago.

Favourite factor: Two clear and one joint favourite have won via eight renewals, with only four of the eleven market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.  This was the race two years ago which decimated Placepot units in their thousands with a 16/1 winner scoring from a 20/1 chance in a ‘short field’ event.  This was the only race which was unpredictable from a Placepot perspective, yet a great dividend of £298.90 was returned, despite the other five market leaders all finishing in the frame!  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.  With the ground as bad as it seemingly is at Plumpton, there must be a fair chance that this ‘dead event’ will be reduced in numbers whereby the ‘short field factor’ could come into play.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Sussex Champion Hurdle’:

1/2—Jaisalmer (heavy)

1/3—Kings Walk (soft)

 

4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals between them with the older vintage representatives leading 4-3 during the study period.  Four-year-old JUMPING JACK is the call this time around, though PULL TOGETHER should make a race of it at the business end of proceedings.  Gary Moore’s runners always have to be respected here at Plumpton where he enjoys a better record than at his other ‘local’ track Fontwell, though both of his raiders should be put in their respective places by the afore mentioned pair on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Two of the last four winners scored at 25/1 & 14/1 following almost total domination by favourites for a long period.  Seven market leaders have won via eleven renewals during the last twelve years, whilst ten of the last eleven favourites secured Placepot positions.

 

4.55: Heavy ground course winner THE LION DANCER cannot be opposed from a Placepot perspective, even though skinny odds of around 6/4 look likely to be in place, though those quotes are substantially better than the 8/11 price marked up in the trade press overnight.  Conversely, 2/1 is the price across the board this morning about TWO HOOTS who was going to be around a 7/1 chance according to the relevant newspaper.  Happy Easter!

Favourite factor: One of the two 2/1 joint favourites secured a Placepot position last year by winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—The Lion Dancer (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh (non Placepot) race at 5.30 on today’s card:

1/4—Ramore Will (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 27th March

HEREFORD – MARCH 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £753.80 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Hereford: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 7 (Salix) & 1 (Aardwolf)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Rolling Dylan), 3 (Three Ways), 2 (Geordie Des Champs) & 5 (Jeu Du Mots)

Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Jurby) & 2 (Westend Story)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Easter In Paris), 1 (Hepburn) & 2 (Lady Robyn)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Act Now) & 5 (Bridane Rebel)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Jimmy Bell), 2 (Westerberry) & 5 (Pink Tara)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: The first factor to mention is the overnight rain down here in the west-country which should eradicate the word “good” from the description of the ground yesterday/evening.  Two winners of last year’s corresponding card return to defend their respective titles, though that’s just about all I care to remember from twelve months ago when just one favourite finished in the frame (exact science).  SALIX arguably has more potential than AARDWOLF having had just the one run over timber to date, and that in a warm juvenile event at Kempton on the second day of the Christmas meeting at the Sunbury circuit. Only sent off that day as a 2/1 chance on debut, Ben Pauling’s raider is expected to prove that the initial effort was wide of the mark in terms of his potential. It’s interesting to note that there has been a little money for ROMANOR overnight which would create interest if the support is maintained later this morning.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader could only beat one horse home twelve months ago in a short field contest, with horses returned at 7/1 and 10/3 filling the frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

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2.45: Last year’s winner was returned at 33/1 and I would not put anyone off including JEU DU MOTS in their Placepot permutation this afternoon in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Lizzy Kelly’s mount receives plenty of weight from the three rivals here, an ‘edge’ which is compounded by the pilot’s useful three pound claim.  Yes, ROLLING DYLAN, THREE WAYS and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (listed in order of preference) should have enough in hand of the outsider of the party, but not enough to exclude the Nick Williams raider in this grade/company in a ‘win only’ event which could be run at a false pace.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 6/5 favourites was beaten 35 lengths when finishing third of just four finishers.

 

3.15: The last 26 horses saddled by Philip Hobbs have been beaten, the kind of ‘form’ that I have been talking about for some time now which gives yours truly no sense of pleasure at all.  Philip is one of the good guys in the sport and this type of representation is almost unheard of back at the ranch since Philip started training 30 years ago.  It will be Philip’s worst month of March in seventeen years if he does not saddle another winner before Easter Monday, though that is (seemingly) not putting people off backing his runner WESTEND STORY in this event.  According to the gospel of yours truly, the potential joker in the pack is JURBY as far as Philip and his team is concerned.

Favourite factor: The 13/8 market leader was no match for the pair of 5/2 second favourites that filled the forecast positions in another short field event on the card twelve months ago.

 

3.45: EASTER IN PARIS returns to defend his crown and though there are more rivals in opposition on this occasion, Paddy Brennan’s mount is expected to be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  Certainly her Placepot chance is there for all to see, though the declarations of HEPBURN and LADY ROBYN (to a fashion) suggest that any win stakes should be kept on the low side.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course on a wretched afternoon for favourite backers twelve

months ago.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Easter In Paris (good to soft)

 

4.15: Anthony Honeyball was unable to maintain the momentum of a wonderful run of results in mid-season which the likes of Henderson, Nicholls and other leading trainers would have been proud of at any time of the year.  Anthony’s number of runners have tailed off accordingly, though ACT NOW has been offered the green light in an attempt to follow up his victory in this contest twelve months ago.  RUBY YEATS will come back and win another race sooner rather than later I’ll wager, though perhaps the biggest threat to the selection this time around is BRIDANE REBEL who hails from another trainer who is enjoying a wonderful season; namely Jennie Candlish.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/11 runner up was the only favourite to finish in the Placepot frame, though that fact was of no interest to favourite investors on the day.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Act Now (good to soft)

 

4.45: Ladbrokes were out on a limb earlier this morning with WESTERBERRY at 25/1 but I see that the ‘magic sign’ has cut the outsider, whilst others have also trimmed PINK TARA in the field.  I believe that both horses could give each way followers a run for their respective monies, though from a win perspective, I prefer the chance of JIMMY BELL.

Favourite factor: The final 3/1 favourite on last year’s card offered a lame attempt to get punters out of jail by finishing last of the seven contenders that completed the course.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Way Of The World (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st March

HAYDOCK – MARCH 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £42.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 73.2% units went through – 3/1 & 10/11*

Race 2: 79.0% of the remaining units when through – 1/14* (Win only)

Race 3: 64.1% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* & 9/4

Race 4: 18.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 16/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 42.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 & 2/1*

Race 6: 52.5% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* (Win only)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Midnight Shadow) & 3 (Think Ahead)

Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Chicago Lady), 5 (Touch Of Velvett) & 2 (Bitumen Belle)

Leg 3 (3.15): 6 (Hills Of Dubai), 5 (Just Georgie) & 4 (Bako De La Saulaie)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Snougar), 3 (Absolutely Dylan) & 2 (Doc Carver)

Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Until Winning), 8 (Swing Hard) & 6 (Whiskey Chaser)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Calipso Collonges) & 3 (Champagne George)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: THINK AHEAD looks the only logical danger to MIDNIGHT SHADOW who is remaining very firm around the 1/2 mark at the time of writing.  Donald Whillans has his team in good form (3/6 of late) but Keyboard Gangster probably needs the favourite to find trouble negotiating the obstacles to score here whilst possibly finding Think Ahead difficult to pass at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.40: The two outsiders in the trade press are going to be included in my Placepot mix today; despite their 7/1 & 25/1 quotes. There has been some support for TOUCH OF VELVETT overnight, whilst Phil Kirby (BITUMEN BELLE) has rarely had his runners in better form, with five of his last eleven runners having prevailed.  For all that, CHICAGO LADY is the more logical winner of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Haydock card.

 

3.15: Recent winners HILLS OF DUBAI and JUST GEORGIE represent some value down at the bottom of the weights, whilst BAKO DE LA SAULAIE also receives concessions from the other pair in the ‘short field’ line-up.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites (5/2 & 7/4) have prevailed this far.

 

3.50: SNOUGAR is another live Donald McCain raider on the card (see stats below) and Donald’s Arakan gelding can follow up his recent soft ground Ayr victory successfully in this grade/company.  The pick of the opposition arguably includes ABSOLUTELY DYLAN and DOC CARVER.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Haydock programme.

 

4.20: Jonjo O’Neill ‘boasts’ stats of just 5/96 in the NH sector in 2018 whereby I will pass over his raider Spookydooky this afternoon in favour of UNTIL WINNING, SWING HARD and WHISKEY CHASER.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Solid Strike in a competitive (if ordinary) contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the only course winner on the Placepot card:

1/2—Whiskey Chaser (heavy)

 

4.55: This contest should be relatively plain sailing for CALIPSO COLLONGES though thanks to another success yesterday, I can afford to add a another runners into the Placepot equation in case a fencing error stops the odds on market leader in his tracks.  CHAMPAGNE GEORGE receives the alternative vote.

Favourite factor: Both 5/1 and 1/2 market leaders are still on the missing list after failing to reach the frame thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stats relating to Haydock’s card on Wednesday:

Donald McCain has only saddled more winners at Bangor (144), Sedgefield (97) and Carlisle (68) than the trainer has secured at Haydock (65) down the years.

Donald’s ratio this season at the track  is outstanding, boasting a ratio of 8/17 (47% strike rate), stats which have produced 15 points of level stake profit.

Donald saddles five runners today: Chicago Lady (2.40), Hills Of Dubai (3.15), Snougar (3.50), Whiskey Chaser (4.20) & Tailor Tom (4.55)