Posts

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

12.30 Sedgefield : Christmas in USA @ 9/2 WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, led before 2nd, not fluent next, went clear before 4 out until next, went clear again before last, winning readily by 8 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 6-runner (was 9!), Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2mf on Soft ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one from two at today's trip and is trained by Tim Vaughan, who has been profitable to follow blindly here at Southwell over recent years. In fact since the start of 2015, his runners are 13 from 95 (13.7% SR) here, generating 7.6pts profit at an ROI of 8%, which is decent enough without filtering out any you wouldn't normally fancy.

If you did start to filter (as I always do!), you could consider the following ten angles, which are all logical, profitable, relevant and applicable today...

  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 26.4pts (+41.3%) in handicaps (and you could stop here if you wanted!)
  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 34.7pts (+89%) at ISP odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 9/60 (15%) for 16.3pts (+27.2%) from 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 19.8pts (+35.4%) over hurdles
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 16.8pts (+39.2%) at Class 4
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 30.2pts (+79.5%) in handicap hurdle contests
  • 8/32 (25%) for 37.6pts (+117.5%) after 22-56 days off track
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 24.1pts (+89.3%) over this 2mf course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.5pts (+196.7%) in 6-runner races
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.9pts (+143.3%) with 1 previous distance win...

...whilst Class 3/4 hcp hurdlers at 7/4 to 8/1 are 4/8 (50% SR) for 25.43pts (+317.9% ROI), including two from three over this 2mf course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.10 Kempton : Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, closer on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, strong run to lead well inside final furlong, soon clear to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, after a long awaited return to form, I was hoping for some nice data-laden selection to sweep us towards a third successive winner, but there were very few horses ticking the stats/price/likelihood of winning axis I use to finalise a pick, so here we've one I expect to go well which is priced attractively, but doesn't have the big blockbuster standout stat.

Two out of three isn't a disaster and there are enough statistical snippets/nuggets to back up the choice, starting with...

...trainer Tom Tate has sent just four runners to this venue this year, but with two winners and a further placer producing 17.8pts profit at an ROI of 445%, it's worth looking out for the rare visitor. Of those four runs, jockey Andrew Mullen is 1 from 2 and Class 6 runners are also 1 from 2.

Next up is a quick look at the Trainer/Jockey combo, as since the start of 2017, the Tate/Mullen alliance is 13 from 83 (15.7% SR) for 53.5pts (+64.5% ROI), with a 10/36 (27.8% SR) record on the A/W yielding 72.9pts (+202.6%) including 3 winners from 9 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+249%) at Class 6 n the A/W.

And I'll wrap today's piece up by telling you that in 2019 so far, top-rated (OR) runners in non-handicap contests are 18 from 93 (19.4% SR) for 233.8pts (+251.3% ROI) here at Southwell, including of note/relevance today...

  • 15/79 (19%) for 240.7pts (+304.7%) over trips up to a mile
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 199.3pts (+766.5%) from female runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 206.3pts (+1085.8%) from females over 5 to 8 furlongs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 174pts (+1740%) at Class 6
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 175.2pts (+2502.6%) at Class 6 up to a mile
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 178.4pts (+8920%) from Class 6 females over 5f-1m

The above ROI figures are skewed by a 66/1 winner that paid out at 170.00 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't invalidate the strike rates, but if you just considered those of the 93 top-rated runners who were sent off shorter than 5/1, you'd have 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) and 5.91pts (+93.5% ROI) profit...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th October 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.30 Kempton : Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/8 (Raced wide close up, pushed along 2f out, had every chance, but one paced in final furlong, beaten by less than a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 6/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Fibresand worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, there's actually plenty of data to suggest a run better than the odds quoted, so here's just some of the facts...

The horse...

...Cold Harbour is a 4yr old gelding with 4 wins from 10 starts in A/W handicaps including of relevance today...

  • 4 from 9 this year, 4 from 8 going left handed and 4 from 8 on standard going
  • 3/8 as non-fav, 3/4 here at Southwell and 2/6 under jockey Kieran O'Neill
  • 2/3 at 1m4f, 2/3 over C&D and 2/2 after less than a fortnight's rest
  • 2/2 in fields of 8-10 runners and 1/2 in October.

His sire...

...is North Light, whose progeny are 17 from 68 (25% SR) for 50.7pts (+74.6% ROI) when backed blindly on the All-Weather, including...

  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 46.9pts (+134.1%) in fields of 5 to 11
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) since 2016
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 37.9pts (+105.2%) after a break of 6-30 days
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 47.3pts (+124.6%) in handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 22.4pts (+131.6%) over 11/12 furlongs
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 35.6pts (+131.9%) from September to January...

...whilst since 2016 in fields of 5-11 runners, handicappers rested for 6-30 days are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 43.37pts (+619.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 at 11/12 furlongs and 1/1 at todays 1.5 mile trip.

The jockey...

...Kieran O'Neill is taking a 23rd ride of the year for trainer Robyn Brisland with 6 wins from the previous 22 (27.3% SR) yielding 27.62pts (+125.6% ROI) profits, all on the All-Weather, from which the partnership is...

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.62pts (+281.7%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 26pts (+200%) on male runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 31.31pts (+313.1%) with 4 yr olds
  • 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) this month...

...with 4yr old males sent off at 12/1 and shorter winning 3 of 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.85pts (+383.5% ROI), including 1 from 2 this month and 1 from 1 here at Southwell.

And finally(!) for today, the trainer...

...Robyn Brisland is 8 from 47 (17% SR) for 171.9pts (+365.7% ROI) on this track this year, with the following of particular note today...

  • 8/42 (19%) for 176.9pts (+421.2%) on Standard going
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 190.9pts (+681.6%) with those returning from breaks of 6-30 days
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 169.1pts (+545.3%) with those beaten by 3-30 lengths LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 188pts (+940%) with 4 yr olds
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 134.8pts (+421.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.6pts (+220.2%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.25pts (+190.7%) over trips of 11/12 furlongs
  • and 2/9 (22.2%) for 8.68pts (+96.5%) this month alone...

...from which, 4yr old handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter on Standard going, 6-30 days after a defeat by 3-30 lengths LTO are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 26.71pts (+667.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 over 11/12f, 2/2 this month, 2/2 over 1m4f and 1 from over course and distance this month via Cold Harbour 25 days ago...

...all of which hopefully corroborates...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 6/1 as was offered by at least a handful of firms at 5.00pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.05 Wolverhampton : Pushaq @ 10/1 BOG 6th at 9/1 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, lost place approaching final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

The specialist all weather track at Southwell is a 'marmite' affair, horses usually struggling on it with only a handful finding it ideal.

Atalanta Queen is in the latter category: her six career starts at the Rolleston venue have ended 112931 (3/6, 50%, +67 pts!), and over this mile range she's 131. Her most recent spin here was a course, distance, and class win eleven days ago.

Trainer Robyn Brisland has an excellent track record. In the past year, he's 8/45 (5 further places, +82.38, A/E 2.23). That may not be surprising considering he trains on the course.

And when Brisland calls for Kieran O'Neill it often ends well. In the past year, they've teamed up 29 times, for seven wins (24.14%) and four further placings. That's returned a 19.38 unit profit (A/E 2.46). At this course, the form string reads 33112.

In a race which looks heavy with quantity over quality, it's enough to give us...

a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Skybet, Betfair, Victor and Paddy at 6pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.05 Wolverhampton : Pushaq @ 10/1 BOG 6th at 9/1 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, lost place approaching final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

The specialist all weather track at Southwell is a 'marmite' affair, horses usually struggling on it with only a handful finding it ideal.

Atalanta Queen is in the latter category: her six career starts at the Rolleston venue have ended 112931 (3/6, 50%, +67 pts!), and over this mile range she's 131. Her most recent spin here was a course, distance, and class win eleven days ago.

Trainer Robyn Brisland has an excellent track record. In the past year, he's 8/45 (5 further places, +82.38, A/E 2.23). That may not be surprising considering he trains on the course.

And when Brisland calls for Kieran O'Neill it often ends well. In the past year, they've teamed up 29 times, for seven wins (24.14%) and four further placings. That's returned a 19.38 unit profit (A/E 2.46). At this course, the form string reads 33112.

In a race which looks heavy with quantity over quality, it's enough to give us...

a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Skybet, Betfair, Victor and Paddy at 6pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Defoe @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in 6th on outside, pushed along 3f out, switched left and headway towards outside over 2f out, 2nd inside final 2f, went right and led over 1f out, ridden and stayed on well)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Graceland @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare has three wins and a place from her five efforts over hurdles this year and comes here on a hat-trick since a wind op was followed by comfortable made all wins at Cartmel 30 days ago and then again at Stratford last time out on Tuesday of last week (I had a few quid on her that day too, so she owes me nothing).

Both wins were comfortable affairs leading from the front, both were at Class 3, both under jockey Brian Hughes and she was wearing a hood on both occasions. Brian and the hood are in situ once again, but she now drops in class and carries a top weight of 12-3 here today. Some might say the weight could be an issue, but I'm not in that camp, as I'll explain shortly.

Brian Hughes is in decent touch right now, winning 13 of 58 (22.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+25.5% ROI) in the past 30 days, whilst trainer Donald McCain has also had a good time of it recently with his own 30-day record standing at 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+50% ROI) and it's fair to say both the trainer and jockey's recent successes have been fairly co-dependent as the partnership is 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI) in that 30-day time frame including 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 16pts (+133.3% ROI) over hurdles.

Now, back to the elephant (or top weight horse) in the room, namely the position of Graceland at the top of the racecard, where you might (or might not) be surprised to read that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 7-9 yrs old with the clear top OR and weight carried in the race are 23 from 83 (27.7% SR) for 28.4pts (+34.2% ROI) when asked to carry 12 stones or more and these include of relevance today...

  • 22/45 (48.9%) for 58.14pts (+129.2%) at sub-6/1 starting prices
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 27.52pts (+125.1%) as LTO winners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 16.87pts (+42.2%) from 7 yr olds
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 21.25pts (+50.6%) from those with an OR of 115-125
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 20.5pts (+73.4%) had raced in the previous fortnight
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 25.86pts (+84%) on Good ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 14.99pts (+75%) over trips of 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.46pts (+74.7%) in May/June
  • 3/4 (75%) for 3.54pts (+88.5%) here at Southwell
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) from female runners

...whilst 7 yr old LTO winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI)...

And finally (phew!), I want to touch on the subject of the pace tab on our racecards , as I did on Saturday with Defoe. Matt and I often get asked about the relevance of pace in NH races and whether it's really as important as it is on the Flat. Well, the simple answer is that yes, it can be as important and Graceland was flagged up on one of my saved pace-related angles on the Geegeez Query Tool...

...basically over the last 6 months, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12st to 12st 5lbs in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps on any ground other than heavy are 14/50 (28% SR) for 7.2pts (+14.4% ROI) when showing a previous average pace score of 4 (ie likes to lead/make all), from which those sent off at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 are 13/35 (37.1%) for 20.63pts (+58.9%).  These are based on Industry SP and can of course be beaten by Betfair SP and/or BOG odds.

And having a pace score of 4 in each of her races this year, I would expect her to attempt to make all and win from the front once again...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Graceland @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Defoe @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in 6th on outside, pushed along 3f out, switched left and headway towards outside over 2f out, 2nd inside final 2f, went right and led over 1f out, ridden and stayed on well)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Graceland @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1mf on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare has three wins and a place from her five efforts over hurdles this year and comes here on a hat-trick since a wind op was followed by comfortable made all wins at Cartmel 30 days ago and then again at Stratford last time out on Tuesday of last week (I had a few quid on her that day too, so she owes me nothing).

Both wins were comfortable affairs leading from the front, both were at Class 3, both under jockey Brian Hughes and she was wearing a hood on both occasions. Brian and the hood are in situ once again, but she now drops in class and carries a top weight of 12-3 here today. Some might say the weight could be an issue, but I'm not in that camp, as I'll explain shortly.

Brian Hughes is in decent touch right now, winning 13 of 58 (22.4% SR) for 14.8pts (+25.5% ROI) in the past 30 days, whilst trainer Donald McCain has also had a good time of it recently with his own 30-day record standing at 13/51 (25.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+50% ROI) and it's fair to say both the trainer and jockey's recent successes have been fairly co-dependent as the partnership is 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+81.9% ROI) in that 30-day time frame including 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 16pts (+133.3% ROI) over hurdles.

Now, back to the elephant (or top weight horse) in the room, namely the position of Graceland at the top of the racecard, where you might (or might not) be surprised to read that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 7-9 yrs old with the clear top OR and weight carried in the race are 23 from 83 (27.7% SR) for 28.4pts (+34.2% ROI) when asked to carry 12 stones or more and these include of relevance today...

  • 22/45 (48.9%) for 58.14pts (+129.2%) at sub-6/1 starting prices
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 27.52pts (+125.1%) as LTO winners
  • 12/40 (30%) for 16.87pts (+42.2%) from 7 yr olds
  • 12/42 (28.6%) for 21.25pts (+50.6%) from those with an OR of 115-125
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 20.5pts (+73.4%) had raced in the previous fortnight
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 25.86pts (+84%) on Good ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 14.99pts (+75%) over trips of 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.46pts (+74.7%) in May/June
  • 3/4 (75%) for 3.54pts (+88.5%) here at Southwell
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) from female runners

...whilst 7 yr old LTO winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI)...

And finally (phew!), I want to touch on the subject of the pace tab on our racecards , as I did on Saturday with Defoe. Matt and I often get asked about the relevance of pace in NH races and whether it's really as important as it is on the Flat. Well, the simple answer is that yes, it can be as important and Graceland was flagged up on one of my saved pace-related angles on the Geegeez Query Tool...

...basically over the last 6 months, 5-9 yr olds carrying 12st to 12st 5lbs in UK Class 4/5 NH handicaps on any ground other than heavy are 14/50 (28% SR) for 7.2pts (+14.4% ROI) when showing a previous average pace score of 4 (ie likes to lead/make all), from which those sent off at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 are 13/35 (37.1%) for 20.63pts (+58.9%).  These are based on Industry SP and can of course be beaten by Betfair SP and/or BOG odds.

And having a pace score of 4 in each of her races this year, I would expect her to attempt to make all and win from the front once again...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Graceland @ 3/1 BOG as offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Redcar : Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, some headway on outside under pressure over 2f out, weakened 2f out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fly True @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6yr old mare has won three of her last seven outings, including 3 from 5 here at Southwell, culminating in a class, course and distance win LTO under today's jockey 37 days ago.

This means that her A/W handicap record now includes...

  • 4/13 at Class 6
  • 3/10 under jockey Nicky Mackay
  • 3/9 for trainer Ivan Furtado
  • 3/7 here at Southwell
  • 3/7 at 31-60 days off track
  • 2/4 as a 6 yr old
  • 2/2 over 7f
  • 2/2 over course and distance

In addition to her own obvious suitability for the task ahead, trainer Ivan Furtado does well here too, especially in A/W handicaps with runners in the 2/1 to 10/1 bracket, as they are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 40.5pts (+60.5% ROI) since the start of 2016 and with today's race in mind, this includes...

  • 13/54 (24.1%) for 44.7pts (+82.7%) at 6-45 days off track
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 42.9pts (+104.7%) in fields of 9-14 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 48.1pts (+114.4%) from horses aged 5 and over
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 35.3pts (+100.1%) at Class 6
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 42.5pts (+202.3%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 7/25 (28%) for 34.7pts (+138.8%) from his female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 31.9pts (+199.1%) at 26-45 days off track
  • 3/5 (60%) for 27.46pts (+549.2%) under jockey Nicky Mackay
  • and 3/10 from LTO winners (30%) for 10.03pts (+100.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fly True @ 7/2 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 6.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.45 Musselburgh : Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/4 (Towards rear, ridden 3f out, not trouble leaders )

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Drone @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm running a bit late this morning (I'd an appointment to attend) and this horse crops up in quite a few of my stored micro-systems (some of them fairly similar to each other admittedly), so I'll try to keep this brief, whilst still giving you a good overview of why this race should suit this lightly-raced 8 yr old gelding.

He's trained by Alex Hales (more on him very shortly) and will be ridden by Kielan Woods, he has five top three finishes from just six efforts over hurdles, winning twice including a class, course and distance success here last time out under Kielan twenty days ago, when clear by four lengths despite problems with the saddle slipping.

Now to the data...

1. Alex Hales + Class 4/5 handicap hurdlers at 10/1 and shorter + 2015-19 = 22/100 (22% SR) for 45.6pts (+45.6% ROI)

2. Alex Hales + Southwell handicap hurdles at 10/1 and shorter + 2016-19 = 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 40pts (+333.7% ROI), all at class 4/5, including 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 19.47pts (+249.6%) at Class 4.

3. Since 2011 in UK handicap hurdles, horses who won at the same class, course and distance LTO are 117/450 (26% SR) for 162.5pts (+36.1% ROI), from which...

  • 6-30 days since that win : 90/336 (26.8%) for 125pts (+37%)
  • at Southwell : 7/17 (41.2%) for 16.1pts (+94.8%)
  • and at Southwell + 6-30dslr : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.82pts (+48.5%)

4. And since the start of 2017 in Class 4 handicap hurdles, males who won by a length or more LTO are 141/522 (27% SR) for 67pts (+12.8% ROI), including...

  • over trips of 2.5m to 3m : 68/229 (29.7%) for 80.4pts (+35.1%)
  • at Southwell : 8/20 (40%) for 19.7pts (+98.5%)
  • and at Southwell over 2.5m to 3m : 7/17 (41.2%) for 17pts (+100%).

You can, of course, dig further into the above data and find plenty of relevant/profitable angles at play today, but I'm satisfied that there's enough there already...

...to support... a 1pt win bet on The Drone @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.30 Ayr : Rubytwo @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Chased leaders, mistake 3rd, effort 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

8.35 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jazz Legend @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on fibresand worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have an in-form 6 yr old gelding who still looks (to me anyway) well weighted to win despite seeming revitalised by a switch back to this unique surface 5 runs ago. The fact he handles the Fibresand so well is quite likely down to his breeding, but I'm not quite going down the USA-bred males at Southwell angle today : it's one I'm sure you're all already aware of.

Since the switch back to this track, he has 3 wins and a runner-up finish from five efforts, all at Class 6 and all over this 6f trip, finishing 211 in his last three and only raised 2lbs from the last of those almost five weeks ago, when making all under today's jockey Liam Keniry. Those tactics are proven here over C&D, as shown on our pace/draw tabs on your racecard and I wouldn't be surprised to see him attempt the same here today.

Stat-wise, I am going back to his breeding, but not the country of origin of the horse, more specifically his father, the sire of 90 (IIRC) runners to have graced UK/Irish tracks including a dozen UK Class 1 wins, Scat Daddy.

Since the start of 2017, offspring of Scat Daddy are 77 from 348 (22.1% SR) for profits of 87.5pts (+25.1% ROI) backed blindly, which is quite excellent, but of course, we don't want so many bets from just one angle, so we'll look at ways of reducing the number of bets without diminishing our returns and we can do this by backing...

  • those racing over 5, 6, 7 or 8 furlongs at 68/282 (24.1%) for 89.9pts (+31.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 65 or lower at 54/211 (25.6%) for 51.9pts (+24.6%)
  • those rested for 21-75 days at 28/126 (22.2%) for 52.7pts (+41.8%)
  • those running on the A/W at 26/107 (24.3%) for 33.3pts (+31.2%)
  • those racing at Class 5/6 at 27/93 (29%) for 62.7pts (+67.4%)
  • handicappers, who are 13/84 (15.5%) for 57.1pts (+67.9%)
  • Class 6 runners, who are 8/37 (21.6%) for 27.2pts (+73.5%)
  • or those racing here at Southwell, who are 4/9 (44.4%) for 18.8pts (+208.6%) admittedly skewed by Jazz Legend's recent form.

From the above, we can get to a point that shows Scat Daddy offspring + 2017-19 + 5/6/7/8 furlongs on the A/W off marks of 65 and lower after a break of 21-75 days = 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 25.3pts (+120.7% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • Class 5/6 : 7/17 (41.2%) for 26.4pts (+155.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.85pts (+165%)
  • in handicaps : 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.85pts (+198.2%)
  • and here at Southwell : 3/4 (75%) for 19.85pts (+496.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jazz Legend @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday, although SkyBet were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.25 Ascot : Dee Ex Bee @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/8 (Soon tracked leader, challenged over 3f out, driven to lead over 2f out, soon ridden, drew readily clear inside final furlong to win by 3.25 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Master Diver @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4yr old gelding is a former winner at this trip and ran well enough last time out 5 weeks ago to warrant a second glance. That was five weeks ago when he blew the start in a one mile contest, but now drops to a trip he has won at, has been eased a pound in the weights and will today sport a visor in a bid to keep him a little more focused in the stalls. I'm thinking that if he gets out OK, then he's well weighted here to win, despite being top rated/weight.

People often think that carrying the most weight will stop a horse from winning, but today's stat (which is simpler to implement than it is to type/read) revolves around these top-rated beasts, because...

...since the start of 2014, in Class 4-6 Southwell A/W handicaps for 5-10 runners over 5f to 1m6f, males aged 3-9 who had the race's top OR and last ran 21-75 days earlier are 46 from 197 (23.4% SR) for 101.8pts (+51.7% ROI)...

If you wanted to filter slightly, then...

  • those sent off shorter than 6/1 are 35/115 (30.4%) for 27.7pts (+24.1%)
  • previous distance winners are 27/104 (26%) for 102.4pts (+98.5%)
  • previous distance winners sent off shorter than 6/1 are 19/65 (29.2%) for 21pts (+32.2%)
  • and those dropping in trip by 0.5f to 1.5f are 8/37 (21.6%) for 11.85pts (+32%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Master Diver @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 24th April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.55 Ludlow : Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Chased leaders, led before 3 out, headed last, no extra closing stages)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Riddlestown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on good ground worth £4094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding makes a return to hurdling after almost 2 years chasing and now races some 14lbs lower than his last effort over the smaller obstacles when winning a similar Class 4, 3 mile contest at Towcester.

To date he is 6 from 23 over hurdles and with today's race in mind, that record includes...

  • 5 wins, 3 places from 15 in handicaps
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 12 here at Southwell
  • 4 wins from 12 at Class 4
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 9 from March to May
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 9 in blinkers
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 9 on Good ground
  • 4 wins from 7 at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 at this 3m trip

He's trained by Caroline Fryer, whose NH runners are 8 from 38 (21% SR) for 28.1pts (+74% ROI) here at Southwell since the start of 2015 and here's how she got her 8 winners...

  • all 8 came from 22 (36.4%) sent off at 12/1 and shorter for 44.1pts (+200.6%)
  • all 8 came from 29 (27.6%) males for 37.1pts (+128%)
  • all 8 came from 35 (22.9%) handicappers for 31.1pts (+88.9%)
  • 7 came from 26 (26.9%) aged 8 or over for 32.9pts (+126.4%)
  • 6 came from the 16 (37.5%) with 1 to 6 previous track wins for 34.9pts (+217.9%)
  • 5 came from 11 (45.5%) running in March/April for 31.9pts (+290.4%)
  • 5 came from 23 (21.7%) hurdlers for 27.4pts (+119.1%)
  • 5 came from 20 (25%) hcp hurdlers for 30.4pts (+151.9%)
  • 5 came from 20 (25%) at Class 4 for 14.4pts (+72%)
  • and 4 came from 17 (23.5%) Good ground runs for 29.1pts (+170.9%)

...and from the above... Male handicappers aged 8 and over with up to 6 previous course wins are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 43.9pts (+292.3% ROI) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Riddlestown @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.55pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were half a point bigger for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 4th April 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.05 Market Rasen : EarloftheCotswolds @ 6/1 BOG (=5.1/1 after 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Made virtually all, jumped slowly 2nd, driven and stayed on well run-in to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dolly Dupree 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 3 yr old filly who has two career wins to her name from 11 starts, not brilliant, but both wins came from 9 runs on the A/W. Both wins came here from 5 attempts at Southwell and both came in her last three starts, so recently she's a more attractive proposition.

She won back to back large field Class 6 handicaps here under today's jockey Theodore Ladd after resting for 21-24 days on each occasion, but was beaten by 1.25 lengths LTO when second in a three-runner race at Class 5 over a mile where the winner stole the race from the front.

So, if we compare her two wins, her defeat and today's race, we see that...

  • She won at Class 6 twice and lost at Class 5 : today is Class 6
  • Theodore Ladd rode both winners, she lost under Danny Brock : Theo is back in the saddle today
  • Theo takes 5lbs off a mark of 56, whereas Danny put up 2lbs overweight on a mark of 55
  • She won after rests of 21 & 24 days : she lost when returning from 8 days off track : she has rested for 28 days this time
  • She won in fields of 10 & 12 runners, but lost in a 3-runner race : 14 line up today

She's actually 2 from 2 with Theo in the saddle and despite there being 14 runners here, there's a distinct lack of quality on display, her 13 rivals have just 2 wins between them. Only 2 of her rivals have won a race, only one other has a course victory, only one has a distance victory and only one has won over course and distance, whilst Theo is just one of two jockeys to have ridden a winner here.

She's by Poets Voice, whose offspring have 16 wins from 80 (20% SR) for 55.5pts (+69.4% ROI) profit in Class 3 to 6 contests here on the fibresand at Southwell, including...

  • handicappers : 13/68 (19.1%) for 40.6pts (+59.7%)
  • 3/4 yr olds : 13/63 (20.6%) for 52.5pts (+83.4%)
  • those sent off shorter than 12/1 : 15/61 (24.6%) for 54.5pts (+89.4%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 9/44 (20.5%) for 37.1pts (+84.4%)
  • females are 7/33 (21.2%) for 30pts (+90.9%)
  • and in 3yo races : 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.3pts (+159.3%)

...whilst 3/4 yr old handicappers sent off shorter than 12/1 are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+127.2% ROI)...

And finally for today, it's possibly worth noting that since 2012 in Class 6 A/W handicaps over 7f/1m here at Southwell, horses with CD next to their name but were beaten LTO 16-60 days earlier are 28/234 (12% SR) for 128.1pts (+54.7% ROI), from which those who ran here last time out are 15/133 (11.3%) for 98.3pts (+73.9%), whilst those sent off at 9/4 to 6/1 are 15/74 (20.3%) for 11.4pts at an ROI of 15.4%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dolly Dupree 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.10pm on Wednesday, although I did manage to take 9/2 BOG from Skybet.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!