Posts

Stat of the Day, 18th February 2020

Monday's pick was...

4.30 Carlisle : Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Social City @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding is 313 in handicaps so far, having won over this trip prior to a narrow (0.75 length) defeat over 2m at Lingfield 27 days ago at this grade, despite being forced to run quite wide. The winner has since stepped up two classes and won again, so hopefully that form pans out for us here.

Hayley Turner is in the saddle today and has been quietly impressive in A/W handicaps since coming back and since the end of July 2018, she has 22 winners from 156 (14.1% SR) for 71.2pts (+45.6% ROI) and she has been in excellent form more recently winning 6 of 17 (35.3%) for 51.4pts (+302.1%) over the last 4 weeks.

Trainer Tony Carroll's runners are 12 from 57 (21.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+55.3% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 11/1 in A/W handicaps of 1m6f and beyond since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 33.3pts (+123.3%) during December to April
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 18.8pts (+64.9%) at Class 6
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.5%) at Class 6 during December to April
  • and 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 5.63pts (+80.4%) here at Southwell...

...where more specifically, he is 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 17.8pts (+74% ROI) at odds of Evens to 9/2 since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 18.2pts (+95.8%) after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 22.6pts (+188.6%) in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.8pts (+114.9%) with 3-4 yr olds
  • 8/9 (88.9%) for 25.6pts (+284.8%) in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 7/10 (70%) for 15.79pts (+157.9%) with 3-4 yr olds after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 6/8 (75%) for 15.2pts (+190.1%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners
  • and 6 from 6 (100%) for 17.2pts (+286.7%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest ...

All the above 7 facts also apply to Tony's runner, Luscifer, who is currently priced at 11/8 BOG in the 5.30 race here today...

...but the decision is...a 1pt win bet on Social City @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

5.20 Newcastle : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Held up in rear, smooth headway near side of group halfway, chased leaders 3f out, ridden inside final 2f, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare wasn't at her best last time out 15 days ago, when beaten here over course and distance, but she did win her two previous outings and there's every chance she'll bounce back today on a track she loves.

Her record here at Southwell stands at 3 wins and 7 further places from 13 efforts, including the following of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 when sent off shorter than 9/1
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 off a mark of 61-70
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 8 after 15-30 days rest
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 7 at Class 5

...whilst she's 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 7.3pts (+121.6% ROI) at sub-9/1 odds off a mark of 61-70 returning from 15-30 days off track, including 2 from 5 (40%) for 5.7pts (+114%) at Class 5.

Her trainer, David O'Meara is flying right now, with 3 winners from 6 in the last seven days and an overall 32% strike rate for the past month (8 from 25) and he does have a decent record in this type of contest.

Since the start of 2017, his Class 5 runners competing over 6-7 furlongs here at Southwell have won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for profits of 4.95pts (+24.75% ROI), including...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) in fields of fewer than 10 runners
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.39pts (+85.3%) from females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 7.43pts (+67.5%) since the start of 2019
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%) during January to May
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.5pts (+16.7%) with those returning from 6-20 days rest...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Coral, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Awkward start, in rear, ridden over 1f out, went never dangerous 4th inside final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ Maidens over 1m on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, with potential SotD picks thin on the ground today (my 5-runner shortlist was this one, an 8/1 shot and three at 11/10 or shorter), we're entering fairly unfamiliar territory in a Maiden Handicap and we'll be taking on a fairly warm favourite, but hey : one of these has to break their duck today!

Obviously this 7-runner contest has no previous winners, but our 4 yr old gelding has at least finished 2423 (all under today's jockey) in his last four starts, so he's bringing some sort of form to the table, including a runner-up finish on his only previous effort on this track/surface. Blinkers are applied today for the first-time in a (well-tried by his trainer) bid to eke out a bit more from the horse.

Despite now being 0 from 18, he has a 50% place strike rate (4/8) under today's jockey Shane Kelly, who himself is 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.65pts (+66.6% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 7/1 here at Southwell since the start of 2018 and these include...

  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.82pts (+121.2%) in 6-11 runner contests
  • 6/12 (50%) for 13.28pts (+110.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.02pts (+109.3%) over this 1m C&D
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 14.44pts (+160.4%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests
  • 4/8 (50%) for 13.19pts (+164.8%) in 6-11 runner C&D contests
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.13pts (+168.9%) in Class 5 C&D races
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 9.3pts (+186%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests over this 1m course and distance

And in that same 2018-now time-frame, trainer Tony Carroll's runners at this venue are 16 from 75 (21.3% SR) for 246.2pts (+328.2% ROI), figures skewed by a couple of decent priced winners, but the SR is still impressive nonetheless and the figures are still profitable without the "biggies" and include...

  • 9/41 (22%) for 56.9pts (+138.8%) after a break of 11-30 days
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 98.5pts (+428.1%) during February & March
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 46.4pts (+244.3%) at Class 5
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 166.7pts (+1041.8%) with 4 yr olds
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 57.4pts (+637.4%) in blinkers
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 52.6pts (+1052.1%) in first-time blinkers

That first-time blinkers stat is interesting, because further digging tells me that since the start of 2016, Tony Carroll's runners sporting the blinkers for the first time have won 8 of 27 races (29.6% SR) for 112.7pts profit at an ROI of some 417.3% and that's probably enough for today about a 0/18 maiden...

...to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor, Marathon & Paddy Power at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

7.30 Kempton : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4 (Prominent, effort on inside over 2f out, every chance from over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding got back to winning ways when scoring at Newcastle last time out 13 days ago under today's jockey Barry McHugh, who is riding really well right now. In fact, he has made the frame in 7 of 10 rides over the past fortnight, winning 3 times and since the start of 2017 is 18/89 (20.2% SR) for 38.9pts (+43.7% ROI) on the A/W here at Southwell, including of relevance today...

  • 17/76 (22.4%) for 49.1pts (+64.6%) during October-March
  • 16/78 (20.5%) for 38.9pts (+49.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 14/75 (18.7%) for 33.7pts (+44.9%) in handicaps
  • 14/61 (23%) for 47pts (+77.1%) with male runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.23pts (+113.7%) from LTO winners

...whilst he is 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 41.5pts (+115.2% ROI) on male handicappers chasing less than £4k during October to March, including 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (+73.3%) on LTO winners.

Meanwhile, trainer Michael Herrington seems to have a knack of getting his small string of horses to win back to back races, invariably sending them back out fairly soon after a win to strike whilst the iron is hot, so to speak. Since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 26.4pts at an ROI of 60.1% in UK handicap contests, from which he is/they are...

  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 34.4pts (+95.6%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 32.3pts (+98%) on the A/W
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 24.6pts (+76.9%) shorter than 7/1
  • 9/29 (31%) for 27.6pts (+95.2%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 37.3pts (+133.3%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 23pts (+121.1%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • and 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.3pts (+113.8%) at Class 6

...and those sent off sub-7/1 on the A/W chasing less than £4k in fields of 9-13 runners within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 37.5pts (+267.9% ROI) profit, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 28.26pts (+403.7%) over the last two years...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.05am Wednesday morning with a smattering of 10/3 around too, but as always please check your BOG status. There was a drift in the market in the hour after I went live, so you should all be able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

  • 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
  • and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today's jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
  • 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
  • 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
  • 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D...

...whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

  • 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
  • and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today's jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
  • 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
  • 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
  • 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D...

...whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.35 Ayr : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, headway into 3rd approaching 4 out, left in well held 2nd place 2 out, dropped to 3rd at the last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

No win in eleven for this for this 5 yr old gelding is probably not the first thing you wanted me to tell you about today's pick, but I'd quickly add that a run of results reading 334232 does suggest that a win is coming and isn't out of turn! In fact, he was only beaten by a head over course and distance off this mark, under today's jockey (Kieran O'Neill) LTO, 9 days ago.

He was headed in the final strides and trainer Robyn Brisland is now applying cheekpieces in a bid to eke a little more out of him in the finish to help him improve what is actually a respectable record for these type of lower grade A/W runners who seem to just take turns at beating each other.

To date he is 4 from 22 (18.2% SR) for 17.57pts (+79.9% ROI) despite his recent run of placed efforts, but what I found interesting looking at this profile was that all four wins have come under a set of conditions prevalent today ie...

  •  off a mark (OR) of 50-65
  • trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • A/W handicap races
  • left handed tracks
  • standard going
  • wearing a tongue tie...

...and when all of the above have been present as they are today, he is 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 29.57pts (+295.7% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.25pts (+232.2%) here at Southwell
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+342.3%) under Kieran O'Neill
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.75pts (+112.6%) over course and distance
  • 2/5 (40%) for 8.03pts (+160.6%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.75pts (+325.1%) within 10 days of his last run.

Those A/W stats aren't too surprising, if you knew that his sire is North Light, whose offspring are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+119.1% ROI) on the All-Weather over the last four years, including of relevance today...

  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 55.2pts (+141.5%) with male runners
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 56.2pts (+147.9%) over trips of 8.5 to 12 furlongs
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) on Standard going
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 59.2pts (+169.1%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 47.8pts (+145%) in handicaps
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+238.9%) at 6-15 days since they last ran...

...whilst 4-8 yr old males at 8.5-12 furlongs on Standard going are 10/30 (33.3% SR) for 64.2pts (+214% ROI), including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 55.8pts (+223.2%) in handicaps
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 41.2pts (+317.2%) at 6-15 dslr
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 40.1pts (+401%) in handicaps at 6-15 dslr...

...which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.00am on Tuesday. (10/3 was widely available at 9.05am, whilst Coral were at 7/2.) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway 2f out, switched right over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck and a nose)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Standard Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5208

Why?...

This 6 yr old USA-bred gelding was a winner LTO fifteen days ago when landing another 6f, C4, A/W hcp at Wolverhampton, causing him to be rated 3lbs higher today. But as that win came off the back of a 4-month break, he can be expected to come on for the run and the switch back to Southwell's fibresand track is another positive.

To date, he is 5/25 (20% SR) for 83.5pts (+334%) in A/W handicaps, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/20 (25%) for 88.5pts (+442.5%) without headgear
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) on Standard going
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) over 6 furlongs
  • 4/16 (25%) for 73.2pts (+457.5%) going left handed
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 12.7pts (+90.7%) after a short 7-15 day break
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.41pts (+23.4%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.41pts (+48.2%) over course and distance...

...whilst he is 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 77.2pts (+643.4% ROI) going left handed over 6f on Standard with no head gear and this includes 2 from 5 (40%) over C&D, 2 from 5 (40%) within 15 dslr and 2 from 2 (100%) at Southwell within 15 dslr.

I mentioned at the top that he was USA-bred and much (possibly too much) has already been said (including by myself) about the success rate of USA-bred runners at this track. So much so that any value from just following them has now been pretty much eroded/eradicated, as those pesky bookies cotton on!

However (there's always an however!), it is worth knowing that there are still some niche angles that are profitable including this one of relevance today... 5-7 yr old, USA-bred males sent off at 12/1 or shorter over 6f to 1m in Class 4-6 A/W hcps at Southwell.

Trust me, that's more complicated in print than it is in practice and following such runners over the last three years (no reliance on old data) would have found you 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) and 70.8pts (+86.3% ROI) of profit and with this horse and race specifically in mind...

  • those sent off at 5/1 and shorter have a 27.5% strike rate (11 from 40)
  • those racing over this 6f course and distance have won 34.6% (9/26)
  • 6 yr olds have a 28% SR via 7 wins from 25
  • those 6f runners sent off at 5/1 max are 6/14 (42.9% SR)
  • whilst at Class 4 it's 4 from 19 for a 21% win ratio...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG as was available from best priced Unibet at 8.10am on Friday (plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th December 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Elzaam's Dream @ 9/2 3rd at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish : basically a slow start, picked up and ran on, but got going a bit too late!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W Handicap for 3yo= over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is in really good nick right now, placed in each of her last three outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer, Faye McManoman), including winning her last two starts, firstly over 6f on this track in early November and then again 18 days later/25 days ago over this 7f trip at Chelmsford.

It seems to have taken a while for the penny to drop with this filly, but she's now flying and conditions look ideal today, as from her overall 2 from 13 record, she is...

  • 2/10 on the A/W and 2/10 as a 3 yr old
  • 2/8 over 6/7 furlongs
  • 2/7 at Class 6, 2/7 after 1-4 weeks rest, 2/7 in fields of 12-14 runners and 2/7 going left handed
  • 2/5 under jockey Faye McManoman

...and when all eight of the above are aligned as they are today, she is 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 25.28pts (+1264% ROI) at Betfair SP.

Trainer Charles Smith's LTO winners are 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.43pts (+377.6% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter in handicaps over the last five years, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 28.43pts (+568.6%) in larger (ie 10-14 runners) fields.

Those LTO stats are clearly from a small sample size, because Charles is hardly prolific with just 14 winners from 271 (5.17% SR) for a loss of 70.87pts (-26.2% ROI) backed blindly over that same 5 yr period, so why/how is he still in business and why have I picked one of his horses?

Well, like most "run of the mill" (no disrespect intended) trainers, Charles has an area/niche where he does far better than his average would suggest and in Charles' case, it seems to be Class 5/6, A/W handicaps here at Southwell over 7-8 furlongs. Such runners win more than twice as often as Charles's average SR and produce a healthy profit from blind backing.

Numerically, we're talking 10 winners from 89 (11.24% SR), so that's 71.4% of all the yard's winners over the last 5 years from just 32.8% of the runners and backing each of them to a £10 stake would have netted £768.10 at an ROI of some 86.3%! A simple further refinement of this angle would be to just back those ridden by a jockey with a weight claim, which eradicates almost half of the 89 bets, but only removes 1 winner!

...as Charles Smith + C5/6 + Southwell A/W hcps + 7-8f + 3-7lb jockey claim = 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 112.85pts (+250.8% ROI) over the last 5 yrs at an A/E of some 2.65...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Betfred at 5.05pm on Thursday, although the latter are non-BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.40 Kempton : Maazel @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 5/4 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run over 1f out, unable to challenge, no impression inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock Sound @ 10/3

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding makes just his seventh start today, but has won 2 of his previous six, including last time out a month ago over course and distance in another big field (14 ran) hcp, which was his first run in the UK, first run on an artificial surface and also his yard debut for Declan Carroll, whose runners are 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 9.5pts (+52.7% ROI) on the A/W over the last 30 days, including 4 from 10 (40%) for 17.5pts (+175%) here at Southwell.

Included amongst that recent run of good form at this venue are the following of relevance today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) from males
  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) at sub-12/1 odds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 18.22pts (+227.7%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 22.22pts (+555.5%) on 13/14 runner contests...

...whilst sub-12/1 male handicappers are 3 from 3 9100% SR) for 23.22pts (+773.9% ROI) in 13/14 runner fields...

And this recent run isn't a flash in the pan either, as Declan's runners have fared well here at Southwell for a number of years now, clocking up 21 wins from 112 (18.75% SR) in handicaps since the start of 2016, generating 40.6pts profit at a healthy 36.2% return, including of note here...

  • 21/105 (20%) for 47.6pts (+45.3%) at trips of 5f to 1m
  • 19/100 (19%) for 39.6pts (+39.6%) in fields of 8-14 runners
  • 18/64 (28.1%) for 38.9pts (+60.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 17/82 (20.7%) for 41.3pts (+50.4%) at the same trip or dropped 1f from LTO
  • 13/63 (20.6%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%) during the 3 months from November to January...

...whilst if you wanted to secure almost 80% of the original profit from just 37.5% of the original bets, then sub-17/2 runners over 5f to 1m in 8-14 runner contests as the same trip or down 1f from LTO are 13/42 (31% SR) for 32.4pts (+77.7% ROI), with those racing during November & December winning 6 of 18 (33.3%) for 14.94pts (+83%) and this fairly simple approach...

...provides us with...a 1pt win bet on Rock Sound @ 10/3 as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, although they sadly don't go BOG until racedays. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

1.20 Lingfield : Colonel Whitehead @ 9/2 BOG 10th at 11/8 (In touch, pushed along halfway, hit rail entering final 2f, soon weakened)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Queen Of Kalahari @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Follow a filly in form is how the saying goes, and it is actually one of the less ridiculous racing maxims.

This filly has won her last three, of five, Southwell starts, all over this six-furlong trip. Her full Southwell 6f string reads 2111.

Trainer Les Eyre is also in fine fettle. While his record at Southwell in recent times is clearly enhanced by today's SotD's efforts, he has been hitting the target elsewhere, too. His eight runners in the past month were 51032331. Six of Eyre's runners at Southwell in the past year have won or placed (A/E 2.15, IV 2.99).

Indeed he seems to be a bit of a dab hand with sprinting fillies: since 1st January 2017, he's won 11 of 49 handicaps at six furlongs or shorter (6 more placed) with fillies/mares for a profit at SP of +45.13 (A/E 1.88).

Jockey Lewis Edmunds is Les Eyre's go to rider and, when the pair have teamed up in the past year, they've won 9/39 (23.08%) for +20.63 (A/E 2.24, IV 2.22).

Queen Of Kalahari is on a course and distance four-timer and, back to her beloved fibresand after a fair foray on the straight track at Newcastle last time, looks very well suited to conditions for in-form connections...

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Queen Of Kalahari @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

12.30 Sedgefield : Christmas in USA @ 9/2 WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, led before 2nd, not fluent next, went clear before 4 out until next, went clear again before last, winning readily by 8 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 6-runner (was 9!), Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2mf on Soft ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one from two at today's trip and is trained by Tim Vaughan, who has been profitable to follow blindly here at Southwell over recent years. In fact since the start of 2015, his runners are 13 from 95 (13.7% SR) here, generating 7.6pts profit at an ROI of 8%, which is decent enough without filtering out any you wouldn't normally fancy.

If you did start to filter (as I always do!), you could consider the following ten angles, which are all logical, profitable, relevant and applicable today...

  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 26.4pts (+41.3%) in handicaps (and you could stop here if you wanted!)
  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 34.7pts (+89%) at ISP odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 9/60 (15%) for 16.3pts (+27.2%) from 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 19.8pts (+35.4%) over hurdles
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 16.8pts (+39.2%) at Class 4
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 30.2pts (+79.5%) in handicap hurdle contests
  • 8/32 (25%) for 37.6pts (+117.5%) after 22-56 days off track
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 24.1pts (+89.3%) over this 2mf course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.5pts (+196.7%) in 6-runner races
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.9pts (+143.3%) with 1 previous distance win...

...whilst Class 3/4 hcp hurdlers at 7/4 to 8/1 are 4/8 (50% SR) for 25.43pts (+317.9% ROI), including two from three over this 2mf course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.10 Kempton : Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, closer on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, strong run to lead well inside final furlong, soon clear to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, after a long awaited return to form, I was hoping for some nice data-laden selection to sweep us towards a third successive winner, but there were very few horses ticking the stats/price/likelihood of winning axis I use to finalise a pick, so here we've one I expect to go well which is priced attractively, but doesn't have the big blockbuster standout stat.

Two out of three isn't a disaster and there are enough statistical snippets/nuggets to back up the choice, starting with...

...trainer Tom Tate has sent just four runners to this venue this year, but with two winners and a further placer producing 17.8pts profit at an ROI of 445%, it's worth looking out for the rare visitor. Of those four runs, jockey Andrew Mullen is 1 from 2 and Class 6 runners are also 1 from 2.

Next up is a quick look at the Trainer/Jockey combo, as since the start of 2017, the Tate/Mullen alliance is 13 from 83 (15.7% SR) for 53.5pts (+64.5% ROI), with a 10/36 (27.8% SR) record on the A/W yielding 72.9pts (+202.6%) including 3 winners from 9 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+249%) at Class 6 n the A/W.

And I'll wrap today's piece up by telling you that in 2019 so far, top-rated (OR) runners in non-handicap contests are 18 from 93 (19.4% SR) for 233.8pts (+251.3% ROI) here at Southwell, including of note/relevance today...

  • 15/79 (19%) for 240.7pts (+304.7%) over trips up to a mile
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 199.3pts (+766.5%) from female runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 206.3pts (+1085.8%) from females over 5 to 8 furlongs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 174pts (+1740%) at Class 6
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 175.2pts (+2502.6%) at Class 6 up to a mile
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 178.4pts (+8920%) from Class 6 females over 5f-1m

The above ROI figures are skewed by a 66/1 winner that paid out at 170.00 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't invalidate the strike rates, but if you just considered those of the 93 top-rated runners who were sent off shorter than 5/1, you'd have 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) and 5.91pts (+93.5% ROI) profit...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th October 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.30 Kempton : Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/8 (Raced wide close up, pushed along 2f out, had every chance, but one paced in final furlong, beaten by less than a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 6/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Fibresand worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, there's actually plenty of data to suggest a run better than the odds quoted, so here's just some of the facts...

The horse...

...Cold Harbour is a 4yr old gelding with 4 wins from 10 starts in A/W handicaps including of relevance today...

  • 4 from 9 this year, 4 from 8 going left handed and 4 from 8 on standard going
  • 3/8 as non-fav, 3/4 here at Southwell and 2/6 under jockey Kieran O'Neill
  • 2/3 at 1m4f, 2/3 over C&D and 2/2 after less than a fortnight's rest
  • 2/2 in fields of 8-10 runners and 1/2 in October.

His sire...

...is North Light, whose progeny are 17 from 68 (25% SR) for 50.7pts (+74.6% ROI) when backed blindly on the All-Weather, including...

  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 46.9pts (+134.1%) in fields of 5 to 11
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) since 2016
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 37.9pts (+105.2%) after a break of 6-30 days
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 47.3pts (+124.6%) in handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 22.4pts (+131.6%) over 11/12 furlongs
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 35.6pts (+131.9%) from September to January...

...whilst since 2016 in fields of 5-11 runners, handicappers rested for 6-30 days are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 43.37pts (+619.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 at 11/12 furlongs and 1/1 at todays 1.5 mile trip.

The jockey...

...Kieran O'Neill is taking a 23rd ride of the year for trainer Robyn Brisland with 6 wins from the previous 22 (27.3% SR) yielding 27.62pts (+125.6% ROI) profits, all on the All-Weather, from which the partnership is...

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36.62pts (+281.7%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 26pts (+200%) on male runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 31.31pts (+313.1%) with 4 yr olds
  • 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 12.68pts (+253.7%) this month...

...with 4yr old males sent off at 12/1 and shorter winning 3 of 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.85pts (+383.5% ROI), including 1 from 2 this month and 1 from 1 here at Southwell.

And finally(!) for today, the trainer...

...Robyn Brisland is 8 from 47 (17% SR) for 171.9pts (+365.7% ROI) on this track this year, with the following of particular note today...

  • 8/42 (19%) for 176.9pts (+421.2%) on Standard going
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 190.9pts (+681.6%) with those returning from breaks of 6-30 days
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 169.1pts (+545.3%) with those beaten by 3-30 lengths LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 188pts (+940%) with 4 yr olds
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 134.8pts (+421.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.6pts (+220.2%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 15.25pts (+190.7%) over trips of 11/12 furlongs
  • and 2/9 (22.2%) for 8.68pts (+96.5%) this month alone...

...from which, 4yr old handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter on Standard going, 6-30 days after a defeat by 3-30 lengths LTO are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 26.71pts (+667.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 over 11/12f, 2/2 this month, 2/2 over 1m4f and 1 from over course and distance this month via Cold Harbour 25 days ago...

...all of which hopefully corroborates...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 6/1 as was offered by at least a handful of firms at 5.00pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.05 Wolverhampton : Pushaq @ 10/1 BOG 6th at 9/1 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, lost place approaching final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

The specialist all weather track at Southwell is a 'marmite' affair, horses usually struggling on it with only a handful finding it ideal.

Atalanta Queen is in the latter category: her six career starts at the Rolleston venue have ended 112931 (3/6, 50%, +67 pts!), and over this mile range she's 131. Her most recent spin here was a course, distance, and class win eleven days ago.

Trainer Robyn Brisland has an excellent track record. In the past year, he's 8/45 (5 further places, +82.38, A/E 2.23). That may not be surprising considering he trains on the course.

And when Brisland calls for Kieran O'Neill it often ends well. In the past year, they've teamed up 29 times, for seven wins (24.14%) and four further placings. That's returned a 19.38 unit profit (A/E 2.46). At this course, the form string reads 33112.

In a race which looks heavy with quantity over quality, it's enough to give us...

a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Skybet, Betfair, Victor and Paddy at 6pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!