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Stat of the Day, 19th December 2017

Monday's Result :

4.40 Wolverhampton : Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Steadied and switched left start, soon close up, switched right entering final 2f, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, edged left and ridden out inside final furlong

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mach One @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m on Fibresand worth £2,911 to the winner...

More on this later, as usual...

...but until then, it's... a 1pt win bet on Mach One @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 17th December

SOUTHWELL – DECEMBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Southwell: 

Leg 1 (12.25): 1 (Corner Creek), 3 (Silent Man) & 2 (Redmond)

Leg 2 (12.55): 6 (Rockandrollrambo), 7 (Cash Again) & 8 (Midnight Gem)

Leg 3 (1.30): 2 (Article Fifty) & 11 (Super Sid)

Leg 4 (2.05): 8 (First Assignment), 9 (Gunfleet) & 2 (Silver Kaif)

Leg 5 (2.35): 5 (Stepover), 1 (Midnight Silver) & 2 (Fool To Cry)

Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Cabaret Queen) & 5 (Our Belle Amie)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.25: Seven of the eleven available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-1, as have the last three winners of the race which were returned at 5/1, 10/3 & 5/2.  CORNER CREEK won well here over a slightly shorter trip, despite the fact that today’s pilot dropped his whip during the closing stages.  Wearing cheek-pieces for the first time that day, it remains to be seen if that was a one-off effort though Michael Scudamore deserves credit for finding another race which should not take a great deal of winning.  SILENT MAN and REDMOND should offer better value for money than some here in naming this pair as the likely dangers to the selection.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites (via four renewals) have secured Placepot positions, albeit we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Corner Creek (good)

1/2—Global Domination (soft)

3/14—French Seventyfive (3 x good)

 

12.55: All four winners have carried 11-3 or more though unfortunately, that stat only eliminates two of the nine entries that are still due to face the starter at the time of writing.  Ian Williams has won with both runners at the venue this season and the first of his two raiders on the card looks set to go close here, namely ROCKANDROLLRAMBO.  Anyone who homes in on the fancied horses here however should look at the favourite stats below!  Each way alternative options include CASH AGAIN and MIDNIGHT GEM.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have failed to claim Placepot positions to date, let alone win their respective events!

Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/2—Weyburn (good)

1/1—Barton Rose (soft)

1/10—Mondo Cane (soft)

2/24—That’s The Deal (good & good to soft)

 

1.30: Warren Greatrex has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect with the trainer having declared two runners on the Southwell card.  The second inmate contests the 3.35 event (‘after we have gone off air’) following ARTICLE FIFTY who makes his debut over timber having won well in a bumper event at Uttoxeter last month.  SUPER SID is taken to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is the first of a few new races on the Southwell card this afternoon.

 

2.05: FIRST ASSIGNMENT is the other Ian Williams runner on the card for Ian Williams, albeit the trainer’s last 15 runners have been beaten which is a sobering stat to offer, despite his 100% record at the track this season as previously mentioned.  GUNFLEET looks the likeliest horse to benefit if Ian is to be denied here with trainer Emma Lavelle continuing to turn out regular winners.  SILVER KAIF is the other potential gold medallist in the field from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Southwell programme.

 

2.35: I cannot pretend that this course is one of my favourite venues but always attempting to be fair, this is an attractive potential ‘dead eight’ contest which is far from easy to assess which in theory, is the way all races should pan out.  Relevant to their respective odds at the time of writing, the safest threesome to include in my permutation might prove to be STEPOVER, MIDNIGHT SILVER and FOOL TO CRY, considering that the trio all have decent amounts of potential investment wait to be accommodated in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night.

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Favourite factor: The three favourites thus far have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:

2/6—Stepover (2 x good)

1/2—Beyeh (good to soft)

 

3.05: I would have a degree of confidence in landing the Southwell ‘pot with just two options here, providing all five runners stand their ground in the contest.  A non runner would take this event into ‘win only’ territory and if that should be the case by the time that your read this column, the race would be offered with a ‘health warning’ regarding the cash in your pocket.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by naming CABARET QUEEN and OUR BELLE AMIE against the remaining trio.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race at Southwell on Sunday.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more on the Southwell card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/15 +6)

3—Tom George (2/13 – loss of 7 points)

3—Jamie Snowden (0/1)

2—Caroline Bailey (3/15 +1)

2—Kim Bailey (2/5 +10)

2—Jack R Barber (1/2 +3)

2—Brian Barr (1/2 +6)

2—Gillian Boanas (0/7)

2—John Cornwall (0/7)

2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners this season)

2—Johnny Farrelly (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Warren Greatrex (1/2 +11)

2—Seamus Mullins (0/3)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/24 – loss of 5 points)

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/1)

2—Dan Skelton (5/26 – loss of 10 points)

2—David Thompson (1/10 – level profit/loss on the year)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—Ian Williams (2/2 +13)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:

Chelmsford – This is a new (Additional) meeting

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 5th December

LINGFIELD – DECEMBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £20.40 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Tuesday: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 8 (Oriental Coach), 2 (Ar Mest) & 4 (Personal Coach)

Leg 2 (1.30): 6 (Rose Of Cimarron) & 9 (Glorvina)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (For Carmel) & 6 (Ben Arthur)

Leg 4 (2.30): 3 (Master Work), 2 (Sea Wall) & 5 (Clayton)

Leg 5 (3.00): 2 (Persian Snow), 5 (Cloudy Beach) & 6 (Allthegear No Idea)

Leg 6 (3.30): 3 (Yorgonnahearmeroar), 1 (Hadfield) & 8 (The Game Is A Foot)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: OREINTAL CROSS contested a reasonable Aintree event following a half decent effort on debut at Market Rasen and there is a chance that Tom Scudamore’s mount can make that experience pay here in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  The Cape Cross filly might attract support I’ll wager whereby the 10/1 quote in the trade press might look fanciful by flag fall.  The Ascot debut form of AR MEST obviously stands close inspection, whilst there was plenty of money in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night for PERSONAL COACH.
Favourite factor: The two (5/6 & 10/11) market leaders to date duly obliged.

 

1.30: Warren Greatrex is a dab hand at eeking out winning opportunities for those less gifted than others in his stable, a comment which applies to ROSE OF CIMARRON, despite her victory in a weak bumper event at Uttoxeter earlier in the year.  High flying James Bowen is due another winner and his five pound claim will aid and abet the chance of GLORVINA, whose trainer Charlie Mann has won with two of the last three horses he has saddled.
Favourite factor: Both (7/4 and even money) favourites finished second thus far when securing Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Paul Henderson boasts a 21% strike rate over obstacles at this venue and the underrated trainer saddles FOR CARMEL here with a winning chance from my viewpoint.  Whilst generally earning his keep at the ‘gaff tracks’ (of which Lingfield is one), it should not be forgotten that Paul has saddled three winners at Cheltenham whereby we should never underestimate his raiders.  BEN ARTHUR has his ground today and with Kim Bailey boasting a 25% strike rate via his four winners of late, Tom Bellamy’s mount is definitely in my Placepot mix on his third start over the bigger obstacles.  The reserve nomination is awarded to dual course winner Burgess Dream who might have made his way into my permutation had there been more juice in the ground.
Favourite factor: The third race is a new event on the Lingfield card

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Point And Shoot (heavy)

2/5—Burgess Dream (2 x heavy)

 

2.30: Philip Hobbs saddles just his fourth runner at Lingfield since the old king died and though his previous three raiders here have been beaten in modern times, MASTER WORK is an unexposed type that should make the grade in this type of event.  Course specialist SEA WALL demands respect obviously, whilst the declaration of CLAYTON adds interest in what on paper looks a difficult race to assess, despite the lack of contenders.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful (11/10) winner.

Record of the course winner in the field:

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3/6—Sea Wall (3 x heavy)

 

3.00: PERSIAN SNOW is another Philip Hobbs runner on the card with definite claims, with Philip looking to re-establish himself at the venue.  Philip has looked elsewhere for winners during the last five years but prior to that, the “Master trainer” bettered a 20% strike rate and there are clear signs that Philip wants to re-inact those days of old given his choice of declarations today.  CLOUDY BEACH is not without a chance at around the 8/1 mark here, especially with a decent five pound claimer in the plate.  That said, softer ground would have been ideal for the Venetia Williams representative, whilst course winner ALLTHEGEAR NO IDEA is another who has lost the winning habit but is well up to the grade on his best form.  Don’t be too quick to write off the chance of Wings Of Smoke who has attracted overnight support at 16/1.  It is not impossible to envisage the Tim Vaughan raider starting close to single figures by the time that flag fall is due.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader finished last of the six finishers in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Allthegear No Idea (heavy)

 

3.30: Although some of his runners during the period could have been described as ‘no hopers’, David Pipe’s recent 1/17 strike rate deters me from including Delface in my permutation, with yours truly preferring the likes of YOUGONNAHEARMEROAR, HADFIELD and course winner THE GAME IS A FOOT on this occasion. There will be enough well fancied horses finishing out of the frame throughout the card to ensure a half decent Placepot dividend I'll wager.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite was back pedalling at a rate of knots before falling at the final obstacle before last year’s market prevailed at the same price.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—The Game Is A Foot (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday with their stats at the track this season – followed by their five year ratios + profits and losses accrued for both scenarios:

7 runners—Gary Moore (6/29 +4) – 9/75 – loss of 19 points

2—Brian Barr (First runners at Lingfield this season) – 1/5 – Slight profit

2—Chris Gordon (0/2) – 7/33 – loss of 5 points

2—Philip Hobbs (0/3) – No previous runners before this season

2—Seamus Mullins (0/4) - 4/36 – loss of 19 points

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

48 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell (NH): £17.40 – 8 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2017

Monday's Result :

1.40 Plumpton : Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/2 Tracked leaders, smooth headway to lead before 2 out, clear between last 2, kept on well, comfortably by 3.75 lengths.

Next up is Tuesday's...

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 1m 7.5f on Good ground worth £10,635 to the winner...

...featuring a 7 yr old gelding who has finished 2112 in his last four starts, culminating in an excusable defeat three weeks ago. I say excusable because, it was his chasing debut, the ground was unsuitably soft for him and he probably needed the run after almost 21 weeks off the track.

All that considered, a 2 length defeat over 2 miles when only headed in the final half furlong wasn't a bad effort, but he looks better suited today as he should come on for having had a run, he should benefit from the experience of tackling the bigger obstacles, we've got good ground today and he drops back half a furlong.

He 's trained by Tom George who has a 20% strike rate over the last fortnight (5/25) with 3 of his last 8 chasers winning, so the yard seems in good health and over the last six years here at Southwell, his string are 25/81 (30.9% SR) for 33.3pts (+41.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 25/71 (35.2%) for 43.3pts (+61%)
  • males are 19/64 (29.7%) for 26.7pts (+41.7%)
  • from September to March : 20/55 (36.4%) for 44.2pts (+80.4%)
  • on debut today or finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 16/39 (41%) for 51.5pts (+132.1%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 13/39 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+57.5%)
  • 21-60 days since horse's last run : 12/37 (32.4%) for 15.4pts (+41.5%)
  • ridden by Adrian Heskin : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.6pts (+33%)
  • 7 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 7.1pts (+59.2%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 5/10 (50%) for 15.61pts (+156.1%)

As I alluded above, Adrian Heskin takes the ride today and he has become Tom's go-to jockey of late and overall together they are 68/331 (20.5% SR) for 76.6pts (+23.1% ROI) with Class 3/4 handicap chases providing 27 winners from 103 (26.2% SR) for 32.1pts profit at an ROI of 31.1%.

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 4th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 8 (Piton Pete) & 9 (Puppet Warrior)

Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Optimus Prime), 4 (Shamma Grise) & 3 (San Pedro De Senam)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Tambura), 7 (Act Now) & 5 (Ding Ding)

Leg 4 (2.10): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 6 (Solomon Grey)

Leg 5 (2.40): 7 (Itoldyou), 1 (Flight Commander) & 5 (Like Sully)

Leg 6 (3.10): 3 (Kristal Hart) & 7 (Our Merlin)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Although Oliver Sherwood’s 0/2 record at Plumpton this season is hardly inspiring, there are ‘only’ nine tracks up and down the country where the trainer has saddled more winners (30 in total), stats which have been gained via a 19% strike rate.  Oliver appears to have found a decent opportunity for PITON PETE to score at the sixth time of asking, having secured two medals of both the silver and bronze variety to date.  That said, I would not go wading into the 10/11 on offer at the time of writing but his Placepot credentials are there for all to see.  Nick Gifford saddled a winner last week and his PUPPET WARRIOR will probably offer better value for money than the Tizzard representative Battle Of Ideas, particularly when considering your Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Plumpton on Monday.

 

1.10: I find trouble in dismissing a Harry Fry 14/1 raider in a four runner race usually, but Behind Time looks to be potentially outclassed here whilst reporting that since the start of November, only one of the 29 races in which just four runners contested an event, just one (4/1) winner has emerged.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although OPTIMUS PRIME is not in the same league (respectfully) as last year’s winner Top Notch, Dan Skelton’s raider looks good enough to build on his successful Worcester debut in this green and pleasant land in this grade/company, despite giving upwards of five pounds to his rivals.  That said, SHAMMA GRISE and SAN PEDRO DE SENAM cannot be eliminated in this ‘win only’ contest given the potential of the Placepot dividend should either of them score.
Favourite factor: The distinctly useful Top Notch becamethe third successive winning odds on favourite in this event twelve months ago.

 

1.40: All five winners have carried 11-4 or less to victory which will aid and abet the chances of fellow course winners ACT NOW and DING DING (winner on this card last year) though from my viewpoint, TAMBURA boasts a half decent chance of gaining her third successive success in the race, especially as she is three pounds lower than when defending her crown successfully twelve months ago under the same projected (good to soft) conditions.  The ground will also suit the other course winners and this trio are speculative selections against more fancied rivals who will have to beat the weight trend if they are to score.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful (11/4**, 9/4 & 15/8) favourites via five renewals.

Record of the course winners in the field:

3/6—Tambura (2 x soft & good to soft)

4/11—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

2/2—Act Now (soft & heavy)

 

2.10: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals but I am inclined to dismiss the vintage trend (shock horror) on this occasion, with KNOCKNANUSS and SOLOMAN GREY having been declared.  Gary Moore’s local first named raider obviously does not take a great deal of racing but when he is offered the green light, the Beneficial gelding rarely lets his supporters down, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  In terms of Placepot consistency, the same can be said about Dan Skelton’s representative SOLOMON GREY.
Favourite factor: All six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (11/4, 4/6, 4/6 & 4/7) winners.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

2.40: ITOLD YOU won this event back in 2013 and the 15/2 quote by Betfair and Paddy Power could prove popular this morning I’ll wager.  LIKE SULLY has won all three of his 22 assignments over obstacles here at Plumpton and Richard Rowe’s nine year-old is another outsider to consider, albeit Oliver Sherwood’s FLIGHT COMMANDER is probably a more logical call in terms of winning the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via eight renewals thus far, statistics which include five (5/4--7/4—13/8—2/1—7/2) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/8—Flashman (good to firm & good to soft)

3/10—Like Sully (good – soft – heavy)

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2/11—Itoldyou (good & good to soft)

2/15—Venetian Lad (2 x good)

1/10—Frank N Fair (good)

 

3.10: I am reverting to a tried and trusted formula in the Placepot finale, hoping that some of my earlier outsiders on the card have reached the frame.  I have made the point before that if in doubt, it’s as well to offer two shorter priced horses in the last leg whereby we can ‘lay off’ from a place perspective at very short odds on the exchanges, should a potentially decent dividend be in the offing.  The only problem on this occasion is that if the field is reduced down to less than eight runners, place betting on the exchanges are different to the ruling on the Placepot so keep your eyes peeled for non runners before considering ‘laying off’, if you have reached this point ‘intact’ from a Placepot viewpoint. KRISTAL HART and OUR MERLIN are my pair against the field in this ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites has claimed a Placepot position to date without winning its respective event.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Gary Moore (4/22 +11)

4—Oliver Sherwood (0/2)

3—Nick Gifford (0/4)

3—Linda Jewell (1/5 +4)

3—Dan Skelton (3/9 – loss of 1 point)

2—Brian Barr (0/1)

2—Paul Henderson (First runners at the track this season)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3)

2—Chris Gordon (3/14 +2)

2—Warren Greatrex (1/2 +11)

2—Neil Mullholland (4/12 – loss of 1 point)

2—David Pipe (1/1 +5)

2—Richard Rowe (0/2)

2—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar

Southwell (A/W): Another new meeting

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 1st December

NEWBURY – DECEMBER 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £229.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 13 (World Premier), 3 (Black Op) & 11 (Simply The Betts)

Leg 2 (12.50): 2 (Hell’s Kitchen), 6 (Bigmarte) & 1 (Crievehill)

Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Santini) & 5 (Chef Des Obeaux)

Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Willoughby Court) & 5 (Yanworth)

Leg 5 (2.25): 1 (O O Seven), 8 (Icing On The Cake) & 5 (Space Oddity)

Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Unowwhatimeanharry) & 6 (Colin’s Sister)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.20: Four-year-olds have won the last seven renewals (and nine of the last eleven), stats which go against Lostintranslation, however promising Colin Tizzard’s Flemenfirth gelding appears to be.  I will adhere to my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency to stick with the figures by suggesting that the likes of WORLD PREMIER, BLACK OP and SIMPLY THE BETTS offer better value accordingly, win, lose or draw.  The trio is listed in order of preference in the dead of night, especially with Ben Pauling offering such a decent ratio at this venue as you can confirm towards the bottom of this analysis. Whatever the outcome, this is a fine event with which to open a truly fabulous card, especially for a Friday!  There is no ‘stand out price’ at the time of writing.  If you like the thought of having ‘stand out’ prices added to the service on a daily basis, perhaps you would be kind enough to let Matt know at your earliest convenience.  If I don’t receive a report that the service is popular, I will drop the additional information after the weekend.  Al prices offered were available at the time of writing today, whereby you might want to set your alarm clock a little earlier than usual this weekend!
Favourite factor: All eleven winners recently have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include five successful market leaders. Eight of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

 

12.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the six renewals thus far and with HELL’S KITCHEN and BIGMARTE representing the vintage this time around, the ‘edge’ might be extended still further. That said, there is plenty of money creeping in for CREIEVHILL as I pen the Friday column which makes for interesting reading, especially with Nigel Twiston-Davies having won with six of his last 26 runners.  The ratio is hardly “red hot” as implied in the trade press, though 20 points of level stake profit during the period would have kept Nigel’s supporters happy.  Stand out price at the time of writing; 10/1 Crievehill (Bet365).
Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders having finished in the frame with two of their number winning their respective events at 5/2 and 11/4**.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dusky Legend (good)

1/2—Hell’s Kitchen (soft)

 

1.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the three winners of this event thus far, having snared the silver medal via an 8/1 chance on the other occasion.  For the record, Nicky has enjoyed a glittering career and Newbury ranks second in terms of the number of winners (216) he has secured at his local course, with Kempton edging out the stats via ten more gold winners compared to this venue.  Nicky has opted to send two inmates with which to go to war here, namely SANTINI and CHEF DES OBEAUX and it would be churlish to ignore their claims given his record in the race to date.  There is little to report in a market dominated by the front four in the betting at the time writing.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites have secured a Placepot position to date, when winning the relevant event at odds of 2/1.

 

1.50: Two of the last six winners (Coneygree and Bobs Worth) have gone on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, notwithstanding the victory of Denman in the race back in 2006.  Paul Nicholls has secured four of these races during the last twelve years, with the trainer swerving the 2017 Cheltenham Festival in March with last year’s winner Clan Des Obeaux.  You might put that name in your notebook (Paul is not rushing his inmate), given that the trainer has offered his five-year-old an entry in a Cheltenham race at their next meeting.  Back to today, with Paul having offered the green light to his recent debut chase winner ADRIEN DU PONT.  This is a tough ask however with WILLOUGHBY COURT and YANWORTH in the field (offered in order of preference) whereby the ‘trainer trend’ is under pressure this time around.  WILLOUGHBY COURT has untapped potential still to be realised I’ll wager which makes for a fascinating clash between the front two in the market. For the record, 28/1 might be as big as Western Miller gets (available at Bet365 & Betfair) this morning, though the real money has appeared in the positive queue on the exchanges for Yanworth which makes 5/6 look a tad big with Ladbrokes/Coral.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twenty years, whilst the last nineteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  18 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Yanworth (soft)

 

2.25: Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record in this event having secured five of the last thirteen renewals and I could offer definite Placepot chances to this year’s pair of vintage representatives, namely O O SEVEN and course winner ICING ON THE CAKE.  Nicky Henderson’s first named raider has long since been a favourite of mine and his record after a break is worth noting (3/3 for three months of more), whilst ground conditions pose no problems for connections.  9/1 for ICING ON THE CAKE (bet365/Sportingbet/Stan James) might be big enough about Oliver Sherwood’s raider, whilst SPACE ODDITY completes my trio against the other five contenders is an absorbing ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via the last fourteen contests during which time, seven of the fifteen market leaders finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Willie Boy (good to soft)

1/3—Icing On The Cake (good to soft)

 

3.00: Big Bucks has been largely responsible for the positive favourite trends listed below, whilst adding the names of Inglis Drever and Baracouda before the Ditcheat based champion took hold of the event, whereby bookmakers have been knocked around the ring as though they faced Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali in his prime.  UNOWHATIMEANHARRY has won 10/11 since Harry Fry took charge of his Sir Harry Lewis gelding, winning this race in facile fashion twelve months ago.  I tend to side with horses who contest hurdle races rather than the likes of THISTLECRACK who return to timber following some excellent chasing efforts.  The debate about whether chasing dents the speed of hurdlers will rage on for years after this showdown though either way, experience tells me that hurdlers sticking to the smaller obstacles often offers value for money against ‘superstars’ who have returned to the discipline.  ‘Superstar’ is the right description of THISTLECRACK and no mistake but with Harry’s raider also having fitness on his side, I’ll oppose the favourite on this occasion.  This is anything but a two horse event however, especially with the improving mare COLIN’S SISTER having been declared. 12/1 about Fergal O’Brien’s raider (available with Betfair/Paddy Power/Betvictor) looks fractionally over the top to yours truly, especially with Ladbrokes as short as 8/1, notwithstanding the fact that Fergal’s recent ratio stands at 7/16.  If you fancy the favourite in receipt of six pounds from ‘Harry’, Skybet offer even money about Colin Tizzard’s champion which is barely available on the exchanges at the time of writing. Whatever the result – enjoy!
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 18 favourites have won this World Hurdle ‘trial’, whilst 17 of the last 20 winners were returned at 6/1 or less.  15 of the last 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Pleacepot finale:

2/2—Unowhatimeanharry (2 x soft)

1/1—Beer Goggles (good to soft)

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1/2—Taquin Du Seuil (heavy)

2/2—Thistlecrack (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by five year stats at the track – level stake profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Paul Nicholls (24/146 – loss of 21 points)

4—Harry Fry (10/49 – loss of 9 points)

4—Alan King (18/142 – loss of 50 points)

4—Ben Pauling (7/26 +2)

4—Dan Skelton (6/50 – loss of 18 points)

3—Nicky Henderson (38/152 – loss of 17 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (7/84 – loss of 1 point)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (38/152 – loss of 17 points)

3—Oliver Sherwood (5/38 +2)

2—Tom George (5/61 – loss of 28 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (5/32 – loss of 9 points)

2—Colin Tizzard (10/71 – loss of 19 points)

2—Harry Whittington (3/18 +8)

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £63.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 4 unplaced

Southwell: This is a new meeting

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2017

Thursday's Result :

1.20 Taunton : Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Led to 3rd, remained with leader, led before 2 out, soon pushed along and outpaced, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by just three quarters of a length.

So no winning end to November, but a small profit was made over the month and we now kick off December with Friday's...

2.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £2588 to the winner.

A 9 yr old gelding, 2lbs the right side of the weights who came very close Newcastle a week ago despite missing the break, which is far from ideal over 7f! That said he finished the strongest, managing to get within a length of a winner who he was conceding weight to. An extra furlong that day would have seen him win and he gets that extension here today.

He's already got 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts here and his overall A/W record includes...

  • 4 wins and a place from 9 runs in December/January
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 9 runs over 1m
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 priced at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 5 when sent off as favourite
  • 2 wins and 4 places from 7 at Class 6
  • 2 wins from 3 in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 over course and distance
  • and 1 win and 1 place from 3 within a week of his last run.

In addition to the above, it's certainly worth noting that in A/W handicaps here at Southwell since the start of 2014, 6-10 yr old males who had the highest Official Rating in the race have won 61 of 300 (20.3% SR) for 165.3pts (+55.1% ROI) after running in a handicap last time out.

Of these 300 "top weights"...

  • Class 4 to 6 runners are 56/270 (20.7%) for 173.1pts (+64.1%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 55/239 (23%) for 155.5pts (+65.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 28/133 (21.1%) for 45.2pts (+34%)
  • running within 6-10 days of last run : 23/62 (37.1%) for 59.6pts (+96.1%)
  • LTO runners-up are 8/33 (24.2%) for 54.4pts (+164.8%)
  • and those beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO are 4/16 (25%) for 28.5pts (+177.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Thursday, but there was some 10/3 BOG (Sky) and some 3/1 non-BOG until Morning (Betfred/Totesport) around for those able to take advantage.

I'm on with Sky, but in the interests of fairness and transparency I'll be recording an 11/4 BOG bet for the records. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 28th November

 

LINGFIELD - NOVEMBER 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 5 (Its Got Legs) & 1 (Cavernous)

Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Al Shahir) & 4 (Fairmount)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Sir Hubert), 2 (Becauseshesaidso) & 3 (Point N Shoot)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Alice Pink), 6 (Naranja) & 4 (Miss Adventure)

Leg 5 (3.00): 8 (Allchilledout), 5 (Two Smokin Barrells) & 4 (Chef D’Oeuvre)

Leg 6 (3.30): 8 (Molly Carew), 5 (Corlay) & 2 (Spiritofthegames)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: A poor contest to start the meeting on a decidedly ordinary day which would struggle to live up to its name as the ‘Sport of Kings’!  Winners are winners in any class however and the opening event looks to be a potential match between ITS GOT LEGS and CAVERNOUS.  The pair is listed in order of preference simply because of the experience gained by the first named entry. That said, if CAVERNOUS (brother to the very useful Willoughby Court) hacks up by a distance, it would not come as a complete surprise, especially with Ben Pauling having saddled seven of his last nineteen runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 34 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/15 favourite finished out of the money, the ‘short field’ frame being filled by horses which were returned at 25/1 & 6/1.  The majority of punters gained their revenge twelve months ago however when the 9/4 market leader scored in facile fashion. New readers might like to learn that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.30: Although this is another extremely average event, it’s worth noting that the three winners to date have hailed from top yards, the most recent of which was Dan Skelton’s stable which is represented today by AL SHAHIR.  Harry’s mount was the 6/4 favourite in a Class 3 event last time out where we can expect far shorter odds for this drop down in grade.  A winner under heavy conditions at Newcastle when winning his only race (of five in total) in a bumper event, AL SHAHIR beat Wig Wam Wiggle by eight lengths on that occasion, with the runner up having scored the other day at Hexham to frank the form.  Martin Keighley’s form at Lingfield is better than most (see current and five year ratios below) whereby FAIRMOUNT might chase the selection home, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: The three favourites have snared a gold medal and two of the silver variety thus far alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Richard Rowe’s only runner on the card is SIR HUBERT which makes for interesting reading as Richard has saddled two of the three winners of this event to date, the trainer not having been representative in the other renewal. Offered at 9/1 right across the board in the dead of night as I write this column, it will interesting to see if any money arrives for the seven-year-old Multiplex gelding who goes chasing for the first time this afternoon. BECAUSESHESAIDSO is regarded as the main threat (Charlie Deutsch takes off a useful three pounds), whilst POINT N SHOOT is preferred of the two course winners in the line up.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite (silver medallist) has finished in the money thus far via three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/2—Point N Shoot (heavy)

1/2—Touch Screen (soft)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date which suggests that NARANJA should go close, though Gavin Sheehan will be hoping for a better ride aboard Jamie Snowden’s raider than was the case on the beaten 11/8 favourite twelve months ago.  ALICE PINK is the ‘dark horse’ in the race, whilst Phil Middleton can do little wrong in the training ranks at present whereby the chance of MISS ADVENTURE demands respect at a big price.  Money has arrived for Queen Of The Wind overnight which makes for interesting reading given that Colin Tizzard snared a nice 10/1 winner (Mister Malarky) for yours truly at Kempton yesterday.  I’m unsure whether the current 16/1 quote (almost right across the board) will still be in place by the time the offices start receiving calls later this morning.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (5/6 and even money) winners.

 

3.00: ALLCHILLEDOUT was a beaten favourite on the card last year and it looks as though punters with long memories are looking for a return at much bigger odds today as Colin Tizzard’s eight-year-old Alflora gelding has been backed overnight.  TWO SMOKIN BARRELLS has her ground, especially with the chase course reportedly being softer than the hurdle track today.  All three of the Warren Greatrex runners were beaten on the corresponding card last year but with Warren firing in more than his fair share of winners recently, his lone entry (course winner) CHEF D’OEUVRE has to be included in my short list.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders (via just two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful 9/4 (joint) favourite.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/3—Solstice Star (soft & heavy)

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1/1—Chef D’Oeuvre (heavy)

 

3.30:  I think we know that Song Light is going to pop up one of these days but he entered my ‘last chance saloon’ last time out and I have little option but to look elsewhere.  Now could be the time to cash in in accordingly guys!  Dual soft/heavy ground winner MOLLY CAREW demands respect, whilst CORLAY could be anything representing the famous McManus colours.  ARDMAYLE is a very big price considering the conditions, though I guess SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is a more logical option.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite duly obliged, before last year’s 2/1 market leader found one two good when snaring a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Ardmayle (heavy)

1/1—Molly Carew (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by this seasons ratios (in brackets) and then five years stats at the course + level stake profits/losses accrued relating to both periods:

4 runners—Laura Mongan (No runners this season) – 0/9 last five years

4—Gary Moore (0/4) – 9/73 – loss of 17 points

4—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 3/26 +23

3—Martin Keighley (1/1 +14) – 4/9 +14

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 4/33 – loss of 16 points

2—Nick Gifford – (0/1) – 0/7

2—Mark Gillard (1/1 +12) – 1/13 – level profit/loss

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) – 7/32 – loss of four points

2—Paul Henderson (No runners) – 2/11 – loss of 2 points

2—Ben Pauling (No runners) – 1/3 – slight loss

2—Dan Skelton (0/2) – 5/12 +13

2—Roger Teal (No runners in either period)

2—Colin Tizzard (No runners) – 2/10 – loss of 3 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £63.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell A/W: Meeting abandoned

 

 

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2017

Monday's Result :

2.30 Kempton : Play The Ace @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/1 Mid-division, headway to chase leaders 6th, hampered 3 out, led before next, soon challenged, hard ridden, ran on well to win by a length.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kaaber @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on Fibresand worth £2588 to the winner.

And an in-form 6 yr old gelding who has won two of four starts since a switch to Michael Blake's yard. Only one of those runs was on the A/W, mind, but it did result in a course and distance win under today's jockey Mitch Godwin last time out, 37 days ago. Mitch is now 3 from 8 on the back of this one and with past form in mind, I already liked Kaaber here.

I then went through my usual stat checklists and the horse just kept popping up all over the place, so I'm going to give you just five different strands to back this one up and I'll keep them as brief as I can!

First up : Michael Blake's LTO winners are 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 66.6pts (+180.1% ROI) since the start of 2015 with handicappers winning 10 of 29 (34.5%) for 68.3pts (+235.7%).

Then we have Mitch Godwin riding three winners from six rides (50% SR) for Michael Blake here at Southwell, all in handicaps and producing profits of 23.84pts at an ROI of 397.3%.

Kaaber has the (USA) suffix to his name and USA-bred males aged 4-9 yrs old are 207/1146 (18.1% SR) for 559.9pts (+48.9% ROI) in A/W handicaps at 1m6f and shorter here at Southwell since 2008, from which...

  • those with fewer than three previous runs on this track are 111/479 (23.2%) for 504pts (+105.2%)
  • in 2017 : 13/53 (24.5%) for 230.1pts (+434.2%)
  • and in 2017, those with fewer than three previous runs on this track are 7/25 (28%) for 226.1pts (+904.4%)

Kaaber is Michael's only runner at this track today and since 2015, his solo entrants are 31/189 (16.4% SR) for 85.6pts (+45.3% ROI), from which handicappers are 26/156 (16.7%) for 100.7pts (+64.6%), whilst here at Southwell it's 5/13 (38.5%) for 32.32pts (+248.6%) all in handicaps.

And I'll complete the circle by briefly discussing the sire, Daaher, whose offspring are 11/78 (14.1% SR) for 45.2pts (+58% ROI), including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/29 (17.2%) for 40.7pts (+140.3%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 4/20 (20%) for 46.9pts (+234.5%)
  • and over 6 furlongs = 4/18 (22.2%) for 48.9pts (+271.6%)

...AND 5/6 yr olds racing over 6f at Class 6 are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 59.9pts (+855.6% ROI), a stat slightly skewed by the fact that all 7 runs were by Kaaber! And of those 7 runs, Mitch Godwin has 3 winners from 4 (75% SR) for 53.97pts (+1352% ROI), taking us back to where we started!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kaaber @ 7/2 BOG which was generally available at 6.40pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 21st November

FAKENHAM - NOVEMBER 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £64.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 placed)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 4 (Minstrel Royal), 1 (Nautical Nitwit) & 2 (Cliffside Park)

Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Maid Of Milan) & 2 (Kayfleur)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Barrd), 3 (Chilli Romance) & 4 (Cocker)

Leg 4 (2.20): 1 (Holbrook Park), 3 (Red Hanrahan) & 4 (The Lion Dancer)

Leg 5 (2.50): 6 (Broadway Belle) & 2 (Dizzey Heights)

Leg 6 (3.20): 3 (Mercian King) & 1 (Movie Legend)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.50: A tough opening leg of our favourite wager, not least because the outsider of the field is the only horse to have attracted money in the dead of night.  Ex Nicky Henderson trained MINSTREL ROYAL can still be backed at 14/1 with Betfair which could be worked as a small bet/saver (at the very least) if you don’t particularly fancy any of his rivals.  James Bowen is receiving rave reviews this season and his five pound claim should enable NAUTICAL NITWIT to become competitive at this level, with similar comments also applying to Richard Johnson’s mount CLIFFSIDE PARK.
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one successful (85/40) market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Cliffside Park (good)

1/19—Occasionally Yours (good)

 

1.20: James Bowen (MAID OF MILAN) and Richard Johnson (KAYFLEUR) have secured the plum rides here, albeit such terminology is a little over the top in this grade!  The pair have to be listed in order of preference given the chasing records of 1/2 & 0/10 respectively.  Similarly, Armedandbeautiful is listed ahead of Frank N Fair of the other entries, given that Zoe Davison is still looking for her first victory at the track having saddled fourteen losers during the last five years. Indeed, Zoe offers a level stake loss of 52 points via career figures of 1/55 at Fakenham.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have snared Placepot positions, three of the market leaders having prevailed at 11/10 (twice) and 15/8.

 

1.50: I would be a tad worried about your mind set if you felt like wading into odds of 4/7 about BARDD, given that seven assignments have slipped by since Nicky Henderson’s Dylan Thomas gelding secured his one and only victory to date on his second start.  I fully appreciate that this opposition should be put in its place with the minimum of fuss but that said, only the Placepot scenario would lure to me include the projected hot-pot in my bets this afternoon.  COCKER makes some appeal I guess with Mr Ferguson in the plate, though CHILLI ROMANCE should be the horse to test the resolve of the market leader at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Fakenham card.

 

2.20: Another ‘win only’ event on the Fakenham programme which makes the predicted Placepot dividend pretty much impossible to predict.  Cynics will argue that if the short price horses win, the game is up for people who invest in permutations but the attitude I adopt is that there could be a mega return in the offing if such moderate horses are beaten.  Upwards and onward by including THE LION DANCER (trainer Charlie Mann has a decent record here) alongside likelier winners, namely HOLBROOK PARK and RED HANRAHAN who are listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: Both of the hot (1/3 & 8/13) favourites had been beaten in ‘win only’ contests before a 6/5 market leaders got punters out of jail in another win only event twelve months ago.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.50: In opposing Saucysioux here, I am doing so in the genuine belief that either BROADWAY BELLE or DIZZEY HEIGHTS would accompany the favourite in the frame, even if the projected market leader was to win the race.  In order to achieve a Placepot dream of securing a great dividend, a chance has to be taken here and there and I’m as confident as I can be that one of the two ‘selections’ will finish in the ‘short field’ frame, irrespective which other horse also secured a position in the first two. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Dizzey Heights (good)

 

3.20: In assessing the final leg of our favourite wager, we have to be positive in the thought that at least one of the hot favourites is going to finish out of the money whereby we should put ourselves in a position to ‘lay off’ from a Placepot perspective if the dividend is showing signs of paying really well.  You can determine that prospect by looking at my (Malcolm Boyle) Twitter page this afternoon where I will offer updates after every race as well as listing the ‘Placepot betting’ for each contest.  There is plenty of money in the positive queues on the exchanges this morning for course winner MERCIAN KING and MOVIE LEGEND and this pair will do for me against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: This is the second of the new races on the Fakenham programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Mercian King (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Fakenham card on Tuesday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and profits/losses accrued and then their five year figures:

3 runners—Zoe David (No runners this season) – 0/14

3—Olly Murphy (1/6 – loss of 3 points – same stats

2—Alan Blackmore (0/1) – 1/31 – loss of 25 points

2—Neil King (2/7 +21) – 10/25 +26

2—Phil Kirby (0/1) – 2/9 +13

2—Charlie Mann (1/4 – slight loss) – 4/16 +4

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

29 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell: £22.20 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W: £339.90) – 7 favouries – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 16th November

LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £61.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Cockney Wren) & 8 (Sunshade)

Leg 2 (1.55): 2 (Cervin), 6 (It’s a Sting) & 1 (Cervin)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Cresswell Legend), 6 (Black Sam Bella) & 4 (Haul Away)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 6 (Bollin Line) & 1 (Market Road)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Petite Power) & 5 (By The Boardwalk)

Leg 6 (4.00): 7 (Cubswin) & 4 (Pheonix Dawn)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: Although COCKNEY WREN is still a shade of odds on at the time of writing, money is coming in for SUNSHADE and it is worth acknowledging that Nicky Henderson has saddled five winners in as many years at this corresponding meeting.  That said, Harry Fry (COCKNEY WREN) has saddled eight of his last sixteen runners to winning effect and this pair should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Grania O’Malley looks booked for third spot at half decent odds from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite duly obliged for the Alan King yard.

 

1.55: Stuart Edmunds has his team in fine form whereby it might not pay to dismiss stable representative LEGAL OKAY too quickly, as Stuart attempts to secure his fourth success with his tenth recent runner.  More logical winners to the untrained eye appear to include ITS A STING and another each way type, namely CERVIN from last year’s successful yard.

Favourite factor: The market got the second race right as well twelve months ago as the inaugural 7/2 favourite scored for the Tim Vaughan stable.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Go On Henry (good)

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have secured 19 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions between them with five-year-olds leading 5-2 from a win perspective. The pick of the relevant runners on this occasion will hopefully prove to be BLACK SAM BELLA and HAUL AWAY from the in form stables of Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson respectively.  That said, Kim Bailey also has his team in fine form whereby the lone course winner in the field has to be included in the mix, namely CRESSWELL LEGEND.  It’s worth taking into account Kim’s raids at this venue this season which have produced a ratio of 5/8, figures which have produced 17 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders (three of them won their respective races) have secured Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Cresswell Legend (good)

 

3.00: I don’t like siding with ‘favourites’ but the top three horses in the market in the dead of night really do stand out from the crowd.  Irish raider MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE takes in a hurdle event for the first time but anything like the form he showed at Musselburgh when winning recently would be good enough to go very close in this grade/company.  Hat trick seeker BOLLIN LINE has been very well placed by Lucingda Egerton again, whilst MARKET ROAD represents Evan Williams who is second in the list to Nicky Henderson at this corresponding meeting in recent times on the three winner mark. The result might be best served from a Placepot perspective if just one of the trio reach the frame alongside two ‘rags’, especially as I have no compunction to become involved from a win viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders (both winners of their respective events at 9/4 & 7/2**) have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

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1/1—Bollin Line (good)

1/2—Mr Bachster (good)

 

3.30: The strongest of the shorter priced runners in this event at the time of writing was very much PETITE POWER from Fergal’s O’Brien’s yard which has been firing in the winners in recent times.  Whilst talking about the popular trainer, I should remind readers what was said before the recent meeting at Cheltenham in that Fergal is very much the underrated handler at the track; before he posted two winners last month.  For the record, Fergal has twelve runners entered at Prestbury Park this weekend, five on Friday, four on Saturday and three on the final day of the fixture.  Back to this event, suggesting that BY THE BOARDWALK is the each way option if you want to shy away from odds of around 10/3 about the projected market leader.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety.

 

4.00: Last year’s 4/9 favourite was beaten in the Placepot finale whereby you need to treat the race with plenty of respect, given that this is a juvenile event.  That said, Neil King’s Zamindar filly CUBSWIN won well at the first time of asking whereby the ex Roger Charlton inmate has to be included in the mix, especially with a claimer in the saddle who negates the penalty for the relevant success.  PHEONIX DAWN appears to be the obvious danger having run well over timber already. TAMAYEF is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly, having reached an official mark of 82 on the level, albeit six turf assignments have only brought about one silver medal to date.  Seemingly a better performer on an A/W surface, the other pair are preferred accordingly.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday followed by seasonal stats and profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)

3—Matt Sheppard (1/4 +4)

3—Evan Williams (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kim Bailey (5/8 +17)

2—Tom George (0/3)

2—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (0/4)

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2)

2—Kerry Lee (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/6 +3)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: This meeting was abandoned last year

Chelmsford: £21.30 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £1,035.30 - 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 13th November

KEMPTON – NOVEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £164.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Mr Whipped) & 2 (Irish Prophecy)

Leg 2 (1.20): 3 (Eyesopenwideawake), 6 (Aficonado) & 7 (Bad Boy Du Pouldu)

Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Secret Investor), 1 (Black Mischief) & 5 (Earth Storm)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Give Me A Copper) & 2 (Three Ways)

Leg 5 (2.55): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 6 (Maestro Royal) & 1 (The Last Samurai)

Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (Whisper) & 1 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Although only 49 runners made the final cut, this is still 12 more than there were declared for the meeting last year!  Aside from the main meetings, there is something about Kempton Park that does not attract that many trainers, aside from the usual suspects!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that yesterday’s Sandown winner IRISH PROPHECY was still in the mix at the time of writing (4.00 this morning) and given his effortless stroll on Sunday, I guess there is a chance that Emma Lavelle’s Azamour gelding will turn up for the gig.  Either way, I’m not sure if an enquiry has been announced to look into that event yesterday as some senior jockeys were guilty of letting the odds on favourite get an incredibly easy lead from the outset whereby there never seemed a chance that any one of his rivals could possibly catch the market leader.  ASHKOUL ran off a mark of 94 on the level on one occasion, a rating that would put him in with a chance here, though we have to take his ‘timber-topping’ on trust on his debut at this discipline.  Whatever his future, the chances are that the Skelton team will have to play second fiddle to MR WHIPPED here (and Emma’s raider for that matter) if Nicky Henderson’s Beneficial gelding is as good as the jungle drums suggest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites during the last eleven years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Irish Prophecy (good)

 

1.20: This is arguably the hardest puzzle to solve on the card and with little in the way of history to help us out, I’m hoping that EYESOPENWIDEAWAKE can build on his summer success now taking to fences.  If Harry Whittington’s raider gets his own way out in front, Harry Bannister’s mount might prove difficult to catch at a venue which suits such tactics.  Harry (Whittington) has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect, with connections possibly (I repeat possibly) having most to fear from AFICIONADO and BAD BOY DU POULDU in a tricky event to evaluate.  Favorito Buck’s will probably attract more Placepot units than he is entitled to via the Paul Nicholls factor whereby there is little value in adding the Ditcheat representative into the equation.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader finished last of the three finishers in a four runner ‘win only’ contest.

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals of this contest with vintage representatives around the 8/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted via eight of the fourteen declarations.  Plenty of in-form trainers are involved in the contest and my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of SECRET INVESTOR, BLACK MISCHIEF and EARTH STORM.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five success market leaders from a win perspective.

 

2.25: There is no point beating about the bush in this oh so disappointing affair by informing that both horses will be added into the permutation, especially after GIVE ME A COPPER blotted his copybook at Kelso last time out.  That said, the Paul Nicholls raider has plenty in hand over THREE WAYS according to official figures whereby an error free round would surely be enough to seal the prize.  The early signs suggest that the trade press quote of 4/11 is not short enough, with 1/4 being the likely SP of the projected winner.  If the odds do not look that different to the untrained eye, I’m duty bound to inform that the differential is equivalent to a horse being backed from 9/1 to 5/1.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.55: MAESTRO ROYAL represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled three of his last seven runners in the race to winning effect.  Another horse that could outrun his odds is THE LAST SAMURI for a couple of reasons.  Kim Bailey saddled the winner of this event last year, whilst Kim has greeted four of his last seven runners in the enclosure reserved for winners.  Add the fact that just five race has passed since THE LAST SAMURI was made one of the 8/1 joint faviourites for the Grand National in 2016 whereby you start to think that 20/1 in this grade/company looks reasonably interesting.  For the record, the nine-year-old (tackling timber instead of the huge Aintree fences) has gained six of his eight wins between November and January.  More logical minds might home in on the chance of WHO DARES WINS who is one of Alan King’s better dual purpose horses and is fit from a profitable campaign on the level.

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Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have won during the last eleven years, seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 10/3.  ‘Coincidentally’, seven favourites finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—The Last Samurai (good to soft)

 

3.30: Nicky Henderson (WHISPER) leads Paul Nicholls (CLAN DES OBEAUX) 3-2 via the last nine renewals of this event and the figures suggest that Nicky can extend the lead in this Graduation event.  Only Might Bite has beaten Whisper via his last four assignments, form which was well and truly franked at Sandown yesterday.  Whisper beat Clan Des Obeaux by half a length at Cheltenham back in January and is five pounds better off into the bargain, which would not be the case in a handicap event!

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won seven of the eight renewals thus far, with eight of the ten market leaders securing Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Monday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and then their five year record at the Sunbury circuit:

4 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/8 – Slight profit) & 52/194 – loss of 4 points

4—Paul Nicholls (5/7 +2) & 32/146 – loss of 9 points

3—Gary Moore (0/6) & 5/83 – loss of 47 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/6) & 8/90 – loss of 63 points

2—Kim Bailey (0/1) & 5/48 – loss of 7 points

2—Harry Fry (1/4 – Slight loss) & 10/53 – loss of 20 points

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) & 8/45 +46

2—Emma Lavelle (0/1) & 9/65 – loss of 35 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) & 4/29 – loss of 16 points

2—Harry Whittinghton (1/2 +4) & 3/14 +7

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £27.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (A/W): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 6th November

PLUMPTON – NOVEMBER 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £20.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (King Vince) & 4 (Parthenius)

Leg 2 (2.10): 7 (Roksana) & 4 (Naranja)

Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Cucklington), 2 (Velvet Cognac) & 5 (Dontminddboys)

Leg 4 (3.10): 5 (Searching), 2 (Fixed Rate) & 3 (Vive Le Roi)

Leg 5 (3.40): 6 (Firmount Glen), 3 (Red Square Revival) & 1 (Ben Arthur)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Quiz Master) & 8 (Posh Totty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: Four-year-olds have won eight renewals during the last decade whereby KING VINCE and PARTHENIUS are the first two names on the team sheet.  There is obvious respect for Alan King’s WILLIAM HUNTER though as a self-confessed ‘anorak’, I feel compelled to stick to the four-year-old raiders LONG VINCE and PARTHENIUS for openers.

Favourite factor: Favourites have finished in the frame in six of the last seven contests, statistics which include five winners.

 

2.10: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4-3 via eight renewals to date and ROKSANA and NARANJA should extend the lead between them in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Am I Appropriate should secure a place again despite finishing only second in a poor event at Southwell at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 10/3, stats which include three winners.  Five of the last six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five events which brings lone vintage representative CUCKLINGTON straight into the mix.  Colin Tizzard’s Kayf Tara gelding should become competitive in this low grade affair, hopefully scoring at the main expense of VELEVET COGNAC and DONTMINDDBOYS.  Plantagenet was ‘drifting like the proverbial barge’ on the exchanges at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include four winners.  Level stake punters (backing favourites to £100 units) would sit + £157.50 to date.

 

3.10: Gary Moore has saddled five winners at this corresponding meeting in as many years (next best trainers have secured just two races) and having greeted the inaugural winner twelve months ago, Gary’s SEARCHING is expected to maintain the trainer’s hold on the race despite his long absence from the track.  Others to consider include FIXED RATE and VIVE LE ROI.  Ding Ding would be an interesting 20/1 chance but for completely losing form of late.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Gary Moore trained) 3/1 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

3/10—Ding Ding (good – good to soft – soft)

 

3.40: It is probably coincidental that FIRMOUNT GLEN is attempting to become the fourth consecutive eleven-year-old winner of this event though either way, Dan Skelton’s raider is very much the horse for money in the dead of night.  Ten different trainers (and jockeys) have won this race during the study period which does not help to assess the contest, though I’m adding RED SQUARE REVIVAL and BEN ARTHUR into the equation on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won this race during the last decade, eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 9/2.  Five of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

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Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/9—Frank N Fair (good)

 

4.10: QUIZ MASTER is the last of Colin Tizzard’s sextet on the card, though one of his likelier winners in my book, despite the fact that there is tons of money for POSH TOTTY at 6.30 this morning as I begin to wind up this analysis.  Nothing else is attracting the eye this morning in the final leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have finished in the money via just two renewals to date.  This includes one winner who was returned as one of the five 9/2 co favourites in 2015!

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Mab Dab (good to firm)

2/7—The Game Is A Foot (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Colin Tizard (No previous runners at Plumpton this season)

4—David Bridgwater (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

3—Dan Skelton (1/4 – loss of 4 points)

3—Jamie Snowden (0/2)

2—Zoe Davidson (0/2)

2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners)

2—Chris Gordon (3/9 +7)

2—Anthony Honeyball (No previous runners)

2—Charlie Mann (1/1 +1)

2—Gary Moore (3/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—Seamus Mullins (2/6 +9)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell (NH): £22.20 – 7 races – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £3.70 – 3 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced (Racing abandoned after three races due to several injured jockeys)

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th October

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 26

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £363.80 (3 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 10 (St John’s), 9 (Sgroppino) & 3 (Creswell Legend)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Flashjack) & 3 (Seven Kingdoms)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Darebin), 3 (Kapstadt) & 4 (Going For Broke)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Drinks Interval), 6 (Majestic Moll) & 2 (Skewiff)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Lined With Silver), 3 (Grand Coureur) & 6 (Monderon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Banditry) & 4 (Captain Felix)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Ludlow five year record relating to this corresponding meeting:

36 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/36 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £632.14

Highest dividend: £2,234.80 (2015) - Lowest dividend: £91.80 (2012)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Evan Williams (2/1*, 13/8* & 10/11*) – 2 runners today:

St John’s (1.55) & Skewiff (3.35)

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The NH season really begins to take shape now with the two day meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow, quickly followed by Aintree's first (proper) meeting since Grand National day being staged on Sunday, notwithstanding a half decent card at Wincanton.  In the meantime we have to make do with Ludlow, but each and every track in the land has its attractions and this venue is situated in a really beautiful part of the country.  Evan Williams is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this race to date whereby ST JOHN’S is offered up against shorter priced horses in the field, the pick of which (from a value for money perspective) might prove to be SGROPPINO and CRESWELL LEGEND.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured five gold medals and one of the silver variety, with just one market leader missing out on a Placepot position thus far.

 

2.30: Only eight seven-year-olds have contested this event to date, claiming four toteplacepot positions in the process, vintage representatives having won two of the contests at 8/1 & 5/2*.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured nine of the fourteen available Placepot positions and with FLASHJACK boasting ticks in both of the trend boxes representing the successful partnership of Daly/Johnson down the years, Henry’s raider is the call.  Hoping (against hope perhaps) that the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact, I’m opting for SEVEN KINGDOMS as the main threat, with the David Dennis representative at home under these conditions which has been noted by overnight exchange players.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have won their respective events at 5/2 & 15/8, though search parties are still out looking for the other three market leaders that missed out on Placepot positions.

 

3.00: The type of race that I absolutely love from a Placepot perspective, with just two potential places up for grabs in a six strong ‘short field’ event.  This is the type of event that we find so often on NH cards at Sandown which historically produce great Placepot dividends pro ratia to the number of runners on a card.  Gary Moore has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect, securing 35 points of level stake profit into the bargain!  Gary has offered the green light to DAREBIN with an obvious chance, though there are plenty of other pointers in a fascinating contest.  Ian Williams (KAPSTADT) is another trainer on the crest of a wave with three of his last four runners having won, with the relevant beaten horse having been sent off as a 66/1 chance.  Overnight money has arrived for GOING FOR BROKE and I will offer up this trio against the other three contenders. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites had failed to claim toteplacepot positions before the last two (4/9 & 5/2) market leaders prevailed.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whilst securing six of the eleven available Placepot positions.  DRINKS INTERVAL and MAJESTIC MOLL are marginally preferred to fellow vintage representative SKEWIFF this time around, though all three contenders find a place in my permutation.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions having won their respective events at 11/8 & 11/10.

 

4.05: With so much to do to set up a busy weekend of fixtures, something has to give and on this occasion, I have to offer this amateur rider event short shrift. Thankfully, there has been interest in three horses overnight, namely LINED WITH SILVER, GRAND COUREUR and MONDERON.

Favourite factor: Two of five favourites to date (via four renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (4/1) winner.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Show’s Over

 

4.35: Ian Williams (BANDITRY) has saddled a winner from two runners in this event during its brief history and his five-year-old Iffraaj gelding should secure a Placepot position at the very least in this grade/company.  BANDITRY makes his handicap debut here following a decent victory on this type of ground at Southwell the last day.  It’s always good to see horses coming into the NH sector who were still progressing on the flat and his last official mark of 94 on the level suggests that he should be able to compete in half decent races in this discipline.  Fellow last time out winners CAPTAIN FELIX and EXCELLENT TEAM should prove to be the main beneficiaries if Ian’s raider fails to impress.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites to have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 11/4 & 5/6 via three renewals.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Peruvian Bleu (2 x good)

1/2—Excellent Team (good to firm)

1/3—King Alfonso (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Alexandra Dunn (3/16 – loss of 2 points)

3—Robin Dickin (2/50 – loss of 16 points)

2—Henry Daly (17/90 – loss of 19 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (23/94 – loss of 8 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Charlie Longsdon (5/51 – loss of 29 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (4/28 – loss of 9 points)

2—Dan Skelton (20/81 – loss of 5 points)

2—Colin Tizzard (3/23 – loss of 8 points)

2—Tom Vaughan (8/66 +9)

2—Evan Williams (36/213 – loss of 34 points)

2—Ian Wiillims (12/55 - +4)

2—Nick Williams (3/19 – loss of 7 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £61.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: £345.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: £60.60 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.45 Worcester :  Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 : Chased leaders, every chance after 3 out, not fluent last, no extra closing stages, beaten by 2.5 lengths...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

4.15 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle contest over 2m4.5f on good ground...

...featuring a 4 yr old mare looking to build upon a solid runner-up run 27 days ago when she was returning from over 28 weeks off the track.

She's trained by Charlie Longsdon, whose sub-12/1 runners are 24/83 (28.9% SR) for 28.1pts (+33.9% ROI) here at Southwell since 2012, including...

  • 5 to 8 yr olds at 22/69 (31.9%) for 32.5pts (+47.2%)
  • Class 4 runners at 16/51 (31.4%) for 19pts (+37.3%)
  • and handicappers at 9/38 (23.7%) for 14pts (+36.8%)

AND...Class 4 handicappers aged 5 to 8 yrs old are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 19.2pts (+74% ROI).

In addition to the above and if I'm honest, what first caught my eye is that she's a daughter of one of my favourite sires, the now sadly-departed Midnight Legend. Longer-term readers of this column will know of my liking for this one, but I assure you the basis isn't sentimental : it's just profitable!

Blindly backing all Midnight Legend progeny since the start of 2008 gives just over 4400 bets and although they win at a strike rate close to 14.5% and generate an ROI of over 13%, that's just too many bets from one source for most people.

So, as you can imagine, there are an abundance of profitable angles you can derive from such a massive sample size, but one of my favourites is this very simple angle... just back his Class 3/4 female handicap hurdlers!

From an initial set of 4411 runners above, this angle gives us 68 winners from 372 (18.3% SR) for profits of 269pts at an impressive ROI of 72.3% and can be further broken down (with this race in mind) as follows...

  • at trips of 2m3f to 2m6.5f : 43/205 (21%) for 179.9pts (+87.7%)
  • on Good ground : 24/131 (18.3%) for 110.8pts (+84.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 27/117 (23.1%) for 66.1pts (+56.5%)
  • those last seen 26-45 days earlier are 20/92 (21.7%) for 107.9pts (+117.3%)
  • whilst here at Southwell : 4/14 (28.6%) for 5.36pts (+38.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betbright, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10 Bet at 5.45pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!