Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the H4C report...
...have yielded the following...
...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...
- 1.20 Lingfield
- 3.15 Exeter
- 4.30 Dundalk
- 5.15 Warwick
- 5.45 Wolverhampton
...and as and as Raddon Top's handicap record at Exeter reads 1112 over hurdles followed by 31 over fences, I think we should see if he has any chance of making the frame in Friday's Devon National. That's the 3.15 Exeter on your cards and it's a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed trek of just over 3m6½f on good ground...
Django is our only LTO winner, but featured horse Raddon Top and favori de Sivola both won their penultimate races, whilst Coup de Pinceau and Premier D'Troice won 3 and 5 races back respectively. Copperhead, on the other hand, has failed to make the frame in ten starts over the last three years and only completed five of those runs since a 72-day hat-trick in the winter of 19/20.
Six of these ran at Class 3 on their most recent outing, we have no class droppers, but Samuel Jackson (3rd LTO), Gwencily Berbas/Premier D'Troice/The Macon Lugnatic (all 5th LTO) step up from Class 4. Six of the field have already won at this track, but Gazette Bourgeoise and Django are a combined 0 from 3 here with Premier D'Troice and The Macon Lugnatic making their Exeter debuts.
The only three to have won at this trip have all won over course and distance; Favori de Sivola, Samuel Jackson and Gwencily Berbas, as featured runner Raddon Top has only won here at 2m6f, 2m7½f and 3m½f (over hurdles) and once over fences at 3m and has never raced beyond 3m2f.
Favori de Sivola has had a short six and a half breather since his last run and top weight Coup de Pinceau runs for the first time in almost four months, but the other eight have all been seen in the last four weeks.
We know about course/distance form, but the rest of this field's chasing stats are covered by Instant Expert...
...where Favori de Sivola looks particularly strong. Samuel Jackson's numbers are very good too and Raddon Top only tackled a fence for the first time on New Year's Day. The negatives here are Gwencily Berbas' record at class & going and Premier D'Troice at this level. I mentioned the desperate 3-year form of Copperhead, which explains his 18lbs drop from his last winning mark and it's an even worse tale for Gwencily Berbas who is 1 from 24 since winning at Roscommon in June 2017, whilst The Macon Lugnatic has yet to make the frame in eight starts over fences, so I'll just be looking at these from now...
The ground here at Exeter is quicker than the usual soft/heavy conditions for this race (2013 was the last good ground contest), but that doesn't mean that stamina and race tactics are less important than usual and our pace analyser suggests that those willing to do the hard work upfront do tend to get rewarded...
...BUT if they don't hang on for the win, they end up out of the frame, swallowed up by the prominent pursuers and based on this field's recent outings...
...I'd expect Samuel Jackson and Favori De Sivola to provide the early running with the likes of Gazette Bourgeoise, Coup de Pinceau and Raddon Top ready to pounce. Raddon Top's runs here at Exeter have tended to be more prominent than at other venues and this has proved successful, as he's 4 from 6 with 2 places in handicaps here from a career record of 4 wins from 13. Also worth noting that he's 4 from 8 under today's jockey.
Five of the six left 'in' after Instant expert were the first five on that pace graphic and Django, the odd one out, does tend to run from the back of the field which makes him vulnerable here.
Summary
I think I'll omit Django from the post-Instant Expert half dozen to leave me with half of the field and of the quintet Gazette Bourgeoise and Coup de Pinceau looked the weakest on IE. The latter is more of a placer than a winner and the former is entitled to need a run after another layoff which, almost by default leaves me with featured H4C report horse Raddon Top and the two pacesetters Favori de Sivola and Samuel Jackson.
Raddon Top is the course specialist, of course, but this is almost 6f further than he's ever raced before, but has been in decent form. Samuel Jackson hasn't won any of eight starts since his last win two years ago, but that win was in this race in 2021 and he's 4lbs lighter here and has made the frame in two of his last three, whilst Favori de Sivola is two from three here and won over course and distance two starts ago and I think we might have an interesting contest on our hands.
I completed the above just before 3pm when Samuel Jackson was 8/1 with Bet365, but sadly he's now as short as 9/2 with Stoke's benefactors and my top three are now the three market principals which is more than a tad annoying as the value in advising an E/W bet on Samuel Jackson has now gone. I'm not sure he's quite there to beat Favori de Sivola and with Raddon Top untested/not proven at the trip, my pick of the trio would have to be Favori, who currently (4.15pm) trades at 5/1 with Hills.
Those wanting an E/W play might struggle with six of the ten priced shorter than 8/1!