Tag Archive for: H4C

Racing Insights, Friday 29/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Newcastle

We've had almost a constant deluge of rain in the North West for some while now, which could make life tricky for some runners, so I'm interested in the Haydock card. The free race on the card is for 2yo maiden fillies, which is almost as far removed from anything I like as you could possibly get, but I'm 'staying local' for the last on the card, the 5.25 Haydock. It's a competitive-looking (at first glance, anyway) 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on soft/heavy ground...

Bottom weight Beccara Rose was the only one of the group to win last time out, but Pearl Eye was a runner-up and has been in the frame in 10 of his 11 starts over the last year, winning five times. Rhythm n Rock is the only one without a win in six, having made the frame just once in that run after finishing 3113 in his first four outings.

Only Shahbaz and LTO winner Beccara Rose ran at this grade last time around, as Harswell Duke, Conservationist and the in-form Pearl Eye all step up from Class 4 whilst the top two on the card, Liamarty Dreams and Rhythm n Rock both drop down from Class 2, as does the oldest runner (8yo) Young Fire.

Young Fire is however a former course and distance winner, as are the three year olds Conservationist and Pearl Eye. Liamarty Dreams has also won here at Haydock, scoring over 7f sixteen months ago, whilst Rhythm n Rock, Harswell Duke and Beccara Rose have all won over a mile on other tracks with the latter getting off the mark over this trip at Kempton three weeks ago, but she does look better on the A/W.

Young Fire was actually in action as recently as Tuesday when beaten by 4.5 lengths on soft ground at a higher grade at Nottingham, so he's back out quickly in a field where all runners have seen some action in the last eight weeks (most in the last four!).

Beccara Rose's LTO (and sole) win came on the all-weather, so that won't appear on the flat stats provided by Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Pearl Eye looks like the standard-bearer. Harswell Duke wouldn't mind even more rain to drop, but his Class 3 win record isn't the best. Elsewhere, there are question marks over Young Fire's 3 from 26 at the trip and he'd probably prefer his races to be a little shorter, although he has made the frame in 4 of those 22 defeats (18.2%) as shown below...

...where again Pearl Eye looks the best suited. Young Fire has been consistent on soft ground and loves it here at Haydock, where he has finished 1114 on soft, whilst Shahbaz has been knocking on the door for a Class 3 win and those last two mentioned seem to be in the 'best' part of the draw, as our draw analyser suggests that the winners of similar races have come from stalls 2 to 5

...with those drawn 1 to 5 making the places most often. That's not ideal for the in-form eyecatcher Pearl Eye, but he is only one berth outside that corridor of runners. The pace data for those 30-odd races above point to those making the running faring best of all...

...which again isn't the best news for Pearl Eye, as recent evidence suggests he'll be nearer the back of the field with Rhythm n Rock and Young Fire, whilst the likes of Liamarty Dreams and Conservationist set the tempo...

All isn't lost, though, as when we combine pace & draw together, only Shahbaz looks like being inconvenienced and even then, he's pretty close to being in the green...

Summary

The pace/draw heat map suggests that any of these can win from any stall and if it's that open/competitive, I want to be with Pearl Eye. He's in great form (1321311 over this trip) and has won on both soft and heavy. He's currently 7/2 and that's probably a fair assessment of his chances.

Had this race been elsewhere on better ground, I'd probably not be interested in Young Fire, but he's a different animal on the soft ground at Haydock and at 9/1 with Bet365, I like him as an E/W possible. As for another placer, you could make a claim for most of them if truth be told, but only Harswell Duke is at an E/W price. He's 18/1 right now and on his form from October '22 to April this year, he'd be a cracking bet, but hasn't looked the same animal since taking the summer off. Perhaps it'll all click back into place?

 

Racing Insights, Friday 26/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including the 6yr old mare Sarah's Verse, whose record at Bath over the last 25 months reads 11132220221!

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 7.15 Limerick
  • 8.25 Pontefract
  • 8.30 Curragh
  • 8.40 Worcester

...but I think I'll have a look at H4C horse Sarah's Verse in the 3.25 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left-handed 5½f on good to firm ground that is already firm in places and may well quicken up in the sun...

It's a reasonable-looking contest for a lowly Class 5 handicap, featuring two LTO winners in the shape of bottom-weight Redredrobin and Four Adaay. The former has two wins and a runner-up finish from her last five outings, as does top-weight Coup de Force, whilst featured horse Sarah's Verse, Starsong and Vaunted have all won one of their last five.

The latter makes a yard debut for John O'Shea and her 244 day absence since her last run is the longest of the nine runners. Hello Me has been away for 16 weeks and Hersilia for just over six months, but the other half dozen have all raced this month already.

Bottom-weight and LTO winner Redredrobin is up a class here, but escapes a penalty for her win last week (apprentices handicap), hilst both Yard debutant Vaunted and fast finisher Granary Queen both drop a class. Top weight Coup de Force is also noted as a fast finisher and she drops two classes after a defeat by just half a length at Class 3 three weeks ago.

Of Sarah's Verse's excellent Bath record, she is 111322022 over course and distance and none of her rivals have won over today's trip, although Granary Queen has won here at Bath over a mile whilst the returning Vaunted has scored over 5f here, albeit on debut 25 months ago.

Instant Expert then tells us that five of the seven to have raced on good to firm ground have won on it and that half a dozen of this field have won at Class 5 and that a different six have won over 5.5f to 6f...

Hello Me has also won at Class 3, whilst Coup de Force, Granary Queen, Hello Me and Four Adaay have all won at Class 4, but the latter would prefer slower ground or even the A/W although she has placed well on Good to Firm, as you'll see shortly. Granary Queen actually has a better record at Class 4 than Class 5, so I'm not concerned about her not being good enough here. Starsong and Redredrobin, however look like Class 6 horses on past form witht he former only really running well on the A/W.

Overall place form looks like this...

and taking flat races in isolation...

From those flat place settings, these are the ones that would interest me most...

...and strangely they're drawn at the extremes of the stalls in boxes 1, 2 3, 8 & 9, yet despite this not being a straight sprint, the bend doesn't seem to have made a huge draw bias...

...and I'd not be dismissing any of the nine runners purely on draw. What is, however, generally accepted/expected here at Bath is that the quicker you're away from the gates, the better, as those setting the pace tend to do best. This isn't just anecdotal, as expected we have the numbers from those race above to back this up...

...and here's how my shortlist have approached their last four contests...

Summary

I narrowed the field to five and decided that I wasn't too bothered about the draw. This placed more emphasis on pace and from recent efforts, it looks like Hello Me would be the pacemaker, but she can't be my winner here. She has won just 1 of 11 on turf with her best form coming on the A/W. She hasn't been seen for 16 weeks, so might need the run and hasn't won any of her last eleven races anywhere, since scoring at Newcastle in December 2021. She has only made the frame in one of those 11 defeats, so she's even vulnerable from a place perspective here.

Sarah's Verse has raced as a hold-up type of late and that's a concern, as is the fact that she's 5lbs higher than her last win here three starts ago. The hold-up tactics worked that day with the ground being soft, but as quick as it's likely to be here, she may have too much ground to make up. It should also be noted that 9 of her 11 Bath outings all came during April to September 2021 with her other two runs coming a year ago and seven weeks ago.

All of which almost brings me alphabetically to Coup de Force, Four Adaay and Granary Queen and I think they'd be my placers here today. Four Adaay won last time out, Coup de Force was a runner-up two classes higher and Granary Queen is a consistent placer (9 places from her last 11). All three have won at Class 4 and Granary Queen has won at this track before.

The manner of Coup de Force's runner-up finish LTO at Class 3 suggests that she's the one to beat and whilst it could be tight between the other two, I think I marginally prefer Granary Queen's consistency.

No odds available at 4.10pm on Thursday, so I'll need to revisit the market later, but I'd hope to see Coup de Force at around 10/3 or even 7/2. I suspect, the other pair will also be popular, rendering them too short for an E/W pick, but Sarah's Verse might be worth a small punt in case any of the trio flop.

Coup de Force opened at 10/3 with Bet365 at 4.30pm with Four Adaay the 7/2 second favourite. Granary Queen opened at 13/2.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hereford
  • 3.00 Musselburgh
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I think we really need to look at Elzaam in the 8.15 Newcastle, which is a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard going tapeta. He has raced at this class, track and trip nine times so far in handicaps and his results read 332211311! From those nine races he is 1311 under today's jockey Graham Lee, 311 in fields of 12+ runners and he's 11311 in his last five career runs, incidentally all here over course and distance.

Here's the card...

As you can see, he's one of just two (in-form Enraged being the other) LTO winners but five of his rivals (Primo's Comet, Enraged, Kraken Power, Nellie French & Another Angel) have also won over course and distance.

Most of his rivals (except Impressor @ 112 dlsr) have raced in the last five weeks and Shabaaby, Primo's Comet & Enraged all drop in class to run here in what will be just Madam Arkati's second run in a handicap.

As you'd expect, Elzaam dominates the Instant Expert section of the card...

...but a few others do at least have some creditable numbers behind them. There is however a large number of red boxes with horses having poor results from a fair large sample size ie Araifjan on the going, One Hart (track), Primo's Comet (going/track/trip), Mews House (going/trip), Marwari (going), Nellie French (track) and Another Angel (class). To be honest, I do see it as a negative if your percentages are still that low after 10 or more attempts. Hopefully the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

A simplistic view here is that Elzaal, Enraged, Kraken Power and Marwari might be the ones to make a shortlist from, although you could still make a case for a few others. That said, Primo's Comet and Impressor do look like they might well struggle.

Elzaal is drawn in stall 11 of 14 on a track/trip where not only have high draws prevailed most often, but stall 11 has been the most successful of all...

And he has been drawn in 10 or higher in three of his four course and distance wins to date. So, Elzaal is in great form, he's the course/distance expert and has got a great draw, so here's the downside? Well, if there is one it's the fact that he's likely to have pass most of his rivals late on if he's to win again, as recent runs suggest he's likely to be held up for a late run...

...and that's not generally the way to win such races here at Newcastle, if we refer back to those races we used for the draw stats...

So, the main possible negative is that he runs from a career-high mark with a possible poor pace profile, but he has won his last two here from the back of the field suggesting he might be the exception to the rule and if we're looking for high drawn leaders, I suppose that's Another Angel in #13, who might well give Elzaal a good two into the race from wide.

Summary

I really can't see Elzaal not making the frame here, especially with most firms paying four places, but at 6/1 he's not E/W material for me. The biggest challenges will probably come from in-form class dropper Enraged (current 5/1 fav) and Kraken Power who can be had at 2.50pm at 17/2 with Hills, which would probably be my E/W play.

Kraken Power was just a nose behind Enraged when they met here last month and with Kraken Power a pund better off here, it's sure to be tight between the pair and then when you add the late run from Elzaal, we could have a cracking finish. Any of the three could get it on the nod, but if I stuck my neck out, it'd be with featured horse Elzaal.

Please note, I'm off to Oslo this (Thursday) evening, returning home on Monday, so the next Racing Insights column will be for Tuesday's racing (28th).

Racing Insights, Friday 17/03/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Wolverhampton
  • 5.50 Down Royal
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...so I suppose it makes sense to try and assess the chances of Johnny Boom in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table as both won last time out and they are two from three and three from six respectively. Captain Attridge is a career 0 from 5, but the rest of the field have all won at least one of their last six outings.

The entire field either ran a this class or higher last time around, so, all should used to the standard, especially Poetic Force, Baby Steps & Harbour Vision who drop from Class 4 and Enough Already whose last race was a Class 3 affair.

Captain Attridge has been off the track since 1st October 2021 and is highly likely to need the run on his yard/UK/handicap debut. Of his rivals, Milltown Star's 55-day break is the longest and Harbour Vision, Poetic Force & Johnny Boom all raced less than a fortnight ago.

Enough Already and the maiden Captain Attridge are the two yet to win here at Wolverhampton and of the nine course winners, five (Arcadian Nights, Tiger Beetle, H4C horse Johnny Boom, Harbour Vision & Mafia Power) are course and distance winners.

All bar Captain Attridge have won on standard going A/W tracks with varying degrees of success and we've half a dozen previous Class 5 A/W winners, according to Instant Expert...

One's focus automatically falls on the green blocks and it's pretty safe to say that Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force, Tiger Beetle and Johnny Boom have performed best under these conditions previously, whilst I have concerns over Enough Already (going), Baby Steps (going/distance), Johnny Boom (class), Harbour Vision (class/course), Mafia Power (going/class/distance), English Spirit (going) and Captain Attridge (layoff and generally!).

In fact, I'd not say those I have concerns about couldn't/wouldn't make the frame, but I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle, who will emerge from stalls 2, 5, 9 & 11, so a good spread across the track. I've omitted Johnny Boom from my list of possible winners, because he is 6 from 12 at Class 6 and 0 from 16 any higher, including 0 from 11 at Class 5. He has made the frame in three of six Class 5 A/W handicaps here though, so could be one for minor money.

My quartet of potential winners are spread across the track for a race that has, at first glance, benefited those drawn centrally...

...but the stall by stall analysis doesn't entirely back this up, so I wouldn't be too concerned about where my horse was drawn and I'd be more interested in race tactics. And we look against at those 1600+ runners above, the key here is not to dwell early and get left behind...

Sitting just behind the pacemaker(s) is the preferred option, but again like the draw, you'd not be too worried how your horse ran and from which stall, as long as they weren't held up and this is how this field have approached their most recent races...

Those pace scores are probably another nail in the coffin for Johnny Boom winning here and you'd want Poetic Force to run like he did LTO rather than the three previous races. The thing about PF is that he runs off the same mark as a win LTO, even though he drops in class and that should be enough to overcome any pace bias. The fact he's drawn in 11 might also suggest he'd have to tuck in anyway.

Summary

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table and after looking at Instant Expert, I said that I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle and to be true to my word, I think this is a contest between Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force.

Both are in good form, both scored well on Instant Expert, neither are going to set the pace, although Arcadian Nights does have a better pace profile. Poetic Force, however, runs off an unchanged mark from his LTO win whilst dropping in class whilst Arcadian Nights is up 5lbs for a win at this level and some 9lbs higher than his C&D win here three starts ago and the weight/class might just be the difference.

So, it's marginally Poetic Force over Arcadian Nights (reverse forecast, perhaps?) for me with the other place going to any of a half dozen others, about whom I'll return to make a judgement once I've seen the market open.

Racing Insights, Friday 03/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers at Newcastle's evening meet for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races, which sadly (for me) is very Dundalk-heavy...

  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.55 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Dundalk

I've no real interest in Dundalk, but the Lingfield contest looks a better one than the Newcastle H4C report races, so let's focus on the 3.00 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack, where a first prize of almost £13k awaits one of these...

Dora Penny and Laheg both won LTO, whilst Baldomero, Crimson Sand and Tolstoy were runners-up, but Lequinto has failed to make the frame in five starts since back-to-back wins at Windsor last summer.

LTO winner Laheg is up a class here as is Aberama Gold, but Crimson Sand, Lequinto and the fast finisher Embour all drop down from Class 2.

Last year's winner of this race, Jack's Point and Crimson Sand have been off track the longest at 274 & 243 days respectively and both make debuts for their new yards here.

Baldomero is the only one yet to win at this trip, but hasn't yet tackled it and has won over 7f. Laheg is the only Lingfield debutant on display and of his rivals, Baldomero, Dora Penny, Lequinto and Tolstoy have yet to score here after 13 combined attempts. Embour won here over 5f (and over 6f on turf), but Crimson Sand, Jack's Point, Tyger Bay, Aberama Gold and Count Otto are all former course and distance winners.

It's a competitive field with the assessor only rating top weight Baldomero 6lbs better than bottom weight Count Otto, so William Carver's 3lb allowance on Tyger Bay could be very handy.

Most of these have experienced similar conditions before and here's how they've got on...

That's largely satisfactory, if not exactly spectacular. Most of them have done well enough, so let's look at the negatives, which for me are Baldomero's 1 from 10 on Standard going, Lequinto's record at class/track and Aberama Gold at class/trip. The latter is shown as being 8lbs below his last A/W win, but that was here over course and distance just before Christmas 2020! He has made the frame just once in 15 A/W starts since then. He has won on turf off just 2lbs higher than this as recently as five months ago, but has toiled away from grass.

I'm going to look at place form, though, before I discard any of these from my reckoning...

...and this is more useful/insightful for me. You don't win if you don't make the frame and the upturn in Baldomero's numbers for example suggest he's a better horse than just wins might show. I don't make too much fuss about field size, if I'm honest, but when considering place form, I only really want to be on runners with at least 2 'greens' from the four going/class/course/distance tabs, which for this race leaves me with (in draw order)...

I am a little concerned about Jack's Point form on standard going, even if he did win this race last year off the same mark as today. He has only raced three times since, failing to make the frame and was beaten by over 16 lengths when last home of seven at Chelmsford nine months ago. I really don't fancy his chance on yard debut, so I'm down to five spread across the track (Crimson Sand will run from #11) where the lower the draw the better chance of winning/placing...

However, that's not exactly true, as stall 1 hasn't fared as well due to the bend, I'd presume, which isn't great for Laheg. The stalls 2 to 8 corridor looks the place to be and that's where four of my six are and although high draws haven't had the best of it, box 11 of 11 has still done reasonably well, but I suspect that Crimson Sand would have to get out pretty sharpish to get near the front early on to stand much chance of landing this, especially based on this...

...which, in turn, removes any element of surprise from this...

And to see who the front runner might be, we check the pace scores from the field's last four races...

...where I suspect Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg will be the most prominent.

Summary

So, the three I've whittled it down to are Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg, although I have a sneaking suspicion that Tyger Bay might go well here back at Lingfield. Crimson Sand is ultra-consistent at making the frame on the A/W with a pair of fourth placed finishes his worst results in a dozen outings. He's currently 8/1 with Hills, but some firms are paying four places and that would make him a decent enough E/W pick.

Baldomero is the one that I think might win, he has a good record over 7f and with a fairly brisk pace expected here, he could well win over 6f at the first time of asking, but Laheg will pose some questions for sure. He comes off a 10-week break during which he was gelded and he's 2 from 3 over 6f on the A/W, having won quite cosily last time out. This pair are 7/2 and 11/2 respectively and they're ones to focus on, I'd have thought.

Please note, I'm away on business with my other job for a couple of days, so my next piece will be a preview of Tuesday's racing.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/02/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.20 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Exeter
  • 4.30 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Warwick
  • 5.45 Wolverhampton

...and as and as Raddon Top's handicap record at Exeter reads 1112 over hurdles followed by 31 over fences, I think we should see if he has any chance of making the frame in Friday's Devon National. That's the 3.15 Exeter on your cards and it's a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed trek of just over 3m6½f on good ground...

Django is our only LTO winner, but featured horse Raddon Top and favori de Sivola both won their penultimate races, whilst Coup de Pinceau and Premier D'Troice won 3 and 5 races back respectively. Copperhead, on the other hand, has failed to make the frame in ten starts over the last three years and only completed five of those runs since a 72-day hat-trick in the winter of 19/20.

Six of these ran at Class 3 on their most recent outing, we have no class droppers, but Samuel Jackson (3rd LTO), Gwencily Berbas/Premier D'Troice/The Macon Lugnatic (all 5th LTO) step up from Class 4. Six of the field have already won at this track, but Gazette Bourgeoise and Django are a combined 0 from 3 here with Premier D'Troice and The Macon Lugnatic making their Exeter debuts.

The only three to have won at this trip have all won over course and distance; Favori de Sivola, Samuel Jackson and Gwencily Berbas, as featured runner Raddon Top has only won here at 2m6f, 2m7½f and 3m½f (over hurdles) and once over fences at 3m and has never raced beyond 3m2f.

Favori de Sivola has had a short six and a half breather since his last run and top weight Coup de Pinceau runs for the first time in almost four months, but the other eight have all been seen in the last four weeks.

We know about course/distance form, but the rest of this field's chasing stats are covered by Instant Expert...

...where Favori de Sivola looks particularly strong. Samuel Jackson's numbers are very good too and Raddon Top only tackled a fence for the first time on New Year's Day. The negatives here are Gwencily Berbas' record at class & going and Premier D'Troice at this level. I mentioned the desperate 3-year form of Copperhead, which explains his 18lbs drop from his last winning mark and it's an even worse tale for Gwencily Berbas who is 1 from 24 since winning at Roscommon in June 2017, whilst The Macon Lugnatic has yet to make the frame in eight starts over fences, so I'll just be looking at these from now...

The ground here at Exeter is quicker than the usual soft/heavy conditions for this race (2013 was the last good ground contest), but that doesn't mean that stamina and race tactics are less important than usual and our pace analyser suggests that those willing to do the hard work upfront do tend to get rewarded...

...BUT if they don't hang on for the win, they end up out of the frame, swallowed up by the prominent pursuers and based on this field's recent outings...

...I'd expect Samuel Jackson and Favori De Sivola to provide the early running with the likes of Gazette Bourgeoise, Coup de Pinceau and Raddon Top ready to pounce. Raddon Top's runs here at Exeter have tended to be more prominent than at other venues and this has proved successful, as he's 4 from 6 with 2 places in handicaps here from a career record of 4 wins from 13. Also worth noting that he's 4 from 8 under today's jockey.

Five of the six left 'in' after Instant expert were the first five on that pace graphic and Django, the odd one out, does tend to run from the back of the field which makes him vulnerable here.

Summary

I think I'll omit Django from the post-Instant Expert half dozen to leave me with half of the field and of the quintet Gazette Bourgeoise and Coup de Pinceau looked the weakest on IE. The latter is more of a placer than a winner and the former is entitled to need a run after another layoff which, almost by default leaves me with featured H4C report horse Raddon Top and the two pacesetters Favori de Sivola and Samuel Jackson.

Raddon Top is the course specialist, of course, but this is almost 6f further than he's ever raced before, but has been in decent form. Samuel Jackson hasn't won any of eight starts since his last win two years ago, but that win was in this race in 2021 and he's 4lbs lighter here and has made the frame in two of his last three, whilst Favori de Sivola is two from three here and won over course and distance two starts ago and I think we might have an interesting contest on our hands.

I completed the above just before 3pm when Samuel Jackson was 8/1 with Bet365, but sadly he's now as short as 9/2 with Stoke's benefactors and my top three are now the three market principals which is more than a tad annoying as the value in advising an E/W bet on Samuel Jackson has now gone. I'm not sure he's quite there to beat Favori de Sivola and with Raddon Top untested/not proven at the trip, my pick of the trio would have to be Favori, who currently (4.15pm) trades at 5/1 with Hills.

Those wanting an E/W play might struggle with six of the ten priced shorter than 8/1!

Racing Insights, Friday 17/02/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced four qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 3.20 Lingfield
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.40 Fakenham
  • 6.00 Dundalk

The second of those 'free' races has a runner from the H4C report, so why do we have a see how Starshiba might get on in the 3.20 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

We'll start with Starshiba's record at this venue which reads 3113137 including 1137 over course and distance. As for the field as a whole, only Unforgotten won last time out and comes here seeking a hat-trick on just his second start in a handicap. He's only had four runs so far, finishing 2211 including 211 at this track/trip, making him the 'form' horse, but only Farasi Lane is winless in five.

Larado is the only one to have raced at this Class 3 least time around, as sole class-dropper Darwell Lion ran at Class 2, whilst Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion, Farasi Lane, Starshiba and Enough Already all step up from Class 4, but bottom weight Brunel Charm was well beaten in a Kempton Class 5. That was just over four months ago and aside from Darwell Lion's 52-day rest and Lord Rapscallion's run four weeks ago, the rest of the field have all seen action this month already.

Larado has won over 1m½f and Brunel Charm over 7f, but they are a combined 0 from 20 at today's trip, whilst the others have all won at the trip. Brunel Charm has at least won on this track over 7f and Brunel Charm scored over 1m2f, whilst Darwell Lion, Unforgotten and Starshiba, are all course and distance winners as shown here...

...where my early concerns centre around Larado (Going/Distance), Farasi Lane (Weight), Enough Already (Going/Distance) and Brunel Charm (Going/Distance) and their numbers on the place stats do little to inspire confidence either...

And if I was to omit those four from my thoughts for now, I'd be left with runners in stalls 3, 6, 7 & 8, so i'm hoping that if there's a draw bias here, it's in the favour of those drawn highest! There isn't a huge advantage to be gained, but given a choice based on the following stats...

...I'd prefer not to be where Darwell Lion is drawn, although closer inspection shows that stall 3 is actually the best of the low draws and has figures not too dissimilar to those drawn highest...

...so I wouldn't rule him out just yet. And whilst there's little to separate them on the draw off over 450 races, there's certainly a pace bias at play with front-runners doing best of all...

...where the basic/general premise is that the further forward you race, the better the chance you have of making the frame and ultimately going on to win, which based on this field's last four runs will suit Unforgotten more than the others...

Of the four we were looking at, Darwell Lion and Starshiba really look up against it from a hold-up position, but all Starshiba's wins/good form here at Lingfield have come from the back, so it's not impossible, but ideally you're a high drawn front runner...

Summary

After shedding half of the field at the Instant Expert phase, I was left with Darwell Lion, Unforgotten, Lord Rapscallion and Starshiba, from which Darwell Lion looks the weakest carrying top weight in poor form and running from the back of the field, so he'll not make my final three.

Of the three, Unforgotten has the best pace/draw profile, he scored well on Instant Expert and brings the best form (2211) to the table and I'd be very surprised if he didn't win this relatively comfortably off a mark just 4lbs higher than his course and distance win a fortnight ago. That was his first run for almost 23 months and it took a while for him to get going, but was quite cosy in the end and should come on for the run. Starshiba was 3.25 lengths further back that day and is now 5lbs better off with the winner, so you'd hope/expect him to get a bit nearer this time.

As for Lord Rapscallion, he steps up in class and up to a mile for the first time, but looks the type who seems to find a bit more when needed as typified by back to back wins by a shorthead at Chelmsford in December, doing all his best work late on. He would seem to be the weaker of this trio, but I wouldn't rule out his chances of making the frame.

Sadly, the bookies are also very keen on Unforgotten and he's just the wrong side of even money with both firms currently open for this race (Hills & Bet365) and both go 15/2 about the other pair. I'd expect more money to come for the fav and that might make bothStarshiba and Lord Rapscallion more attractive as E/W propositions.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 03/02/03

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Catterick
  • 4.05 Chepstow
  • 4.30 Dundalk
  • 4.40 Chepstow
  • 6.15 Newcastle

...and having made the frame in all seven (six x handicap) career runs at Lingfield, we should see how Starshiba might fare back there for the 2.50 race, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

Starshiba has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six outings, but both Brains (on a hat-trick here) and Unforgotten are the ones who won last time out. The latter, however, carries top weight up in class on handicap debut after an absence of 22 months and might well need a run.

Tropez Power, Enough Already, Gavi Gavi and George Morland have also all won relatively recently with just Farasi Lane, Million Thanks and bottom weight Dashing Dick on losing runs of 11, 5 and 10 races respectively with the latter having a 0 from 12 record on the A/W.

Aside from Unforgotten, none of these are moving class and none have been off track for more than four months with all bar Farasi Lane having raced inside the last five weeks, but he has been off for 109 days during which time he has undergone wind surgery.

Enough Already is showing as having a change of yard and he's now back with Lee Carter, less than eleven months after moving out of the yard. Since then he's had a win and two places from five runs for Henry Spiller and then finished 4th of 8 in both starts for Tony Carroll before finding himself back with Mr Carter.

He has won here over 1m2f and over a mile at Brighton & Yarmouth, but has no course and distance win. That, however, has been achieved by our H4C horse, Starshiba (who has finished 113 in three efforts over C&D), Brains, Gavi di Gavi and George Morland, whilst Tropez Power, Farasi Lane and Million Thanks have at least all won over a mile elsewhere. Only top and bottom weights, Unforgotten and Dashing Dick are winless at both course and distance and this will be reflected by Instant Expert...

Unforgotten is making just a fourth start, but has been a course and distance runner-up at a lower class twice already and may need the run after such a long absence. Tropez Power has ran well on the A/W so far, finishing 61313, but only the '6' came on polytrack when well beaten over 7f at Kempton. Farasi Lane is now some 15lbs higher than his last A/W win, but has actually won off 2lbs higher on turf.

Brains looks consistently solid, but his best form has come on the slower surface at Kempton. Starshiba's only blot is his Class 4 record, but he was a runner-up on both occasions, running on over 7f, so a mile might suit better. Enough Already, however, has struggled to win at Class 4 with a 1/8 record and his best form has been on turf. Gavi di Gavi hasn't this track or trip particularly well in the past, even if he did win over course and distance back in March 2021 and he's still 5lbs higher than that run.

George Morland's numbers are interesting, but his 3 from 3 record at Class 5 compared to 1 from 9 at this level suggests this will be too tough for him, whilst Dashing Dick is just 2 from 29 overall and although he has made the frame in half of his dozen A/W outings, he has yet to break his duck and doesn't look like changing that here.

Our Draw Analyser for similar past races here at Lingfield doesn't show a huge bias...

...but does suggest that the stalls 5 to 9 corridor might have a slight advantage, as they'd hit the turn a little wider and be able to 'cut' the corner and almost slingshot out of it, which is good news for featured runner, Starshiba, who will no doubt let the others get on with things and wait his time at the back, if his last few races are anything to go by...

Brains & possibly the returning Unforgotten are the likeliest front-runners, although going off quickly might not help the latter after such a long lay-off, whilst Starshiba might well have some company at the back of the field, which isn't generally the best placed to be here at Lingfield over a mile as the pace stats from those races above would suggest...

Starshiba is clearly the exception to the rule here, with his excellent record from a hold-up position and were it not for that record, you'd be right to doubt his ability to make up the ground.

Summary

Starshiba has made the frame in all seven visits to Lingfield and has finished 113 in three efforts over this course and distance, despite having a pace profile completely at odds with the way things normally go here. He is, however, well drawn and I can see him making the frame again here. Whether he wins or not is debatable, he was beaten by two heads into third on his last visit off 2lbs lower, so the odds are that a place is as good as it'll get, but at 15/2 early doors, could be a viable E/W proposition.

That market has Unforgotten installed as the 9/4 fav, but he really could be something or nothing. There are too many unknowns about him for my liking and if pushed, I'd prefer the likes of the 5/1 Brains to finish ahead of him.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/01/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a couple of regular placers on the A/W...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.20 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton

From which, I think I'll have a quick look at the two H4C contenders, starting with Man On A Mission, a 4yr old gelding who'll tackle the 3.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed five furlongs on standard polytrack...

MoaM comes here in great form, having won three on the bounce, but Pablo del Pueblo also won last time out. Our runner is noted as a fast finisher and unlike the other LTO winner, isn't stepping up in class here. He's had 16 days rest since his last run/win and now seeks to land a hat-trick of course and distance successes inside 25 days. Three others (Lilkian, Mick's Spirit & Hey Ho Let's Go) have also won here over 5f, whilst Pablo del Pueblo has won here twice over 6f and over today's trip at Kempton.

The two LTO winners look like taking differing approaches to this contest, as Pablo tends to get out quickly, whilst MoaM tends to time his run for the line a little later, according the field's last four outings...

...and the pair are drawn quite a way from each other with MoaM in stall 3 of 8 and Pablo out widest. Our Draw Analyser & Pace Analyser will hopefully give us an indication of where the optimum placing might be, starting with the draw...

...where there's not a massive bias, but if you had the choice, you'd want to be at the lower end of the draw (good news for MoaM), whilst the pace stats from all those races look like this...

...and these are pretty much what I'd expect over 5f. This means that MoaM will have his work cut out to win, but he's won his last two with similar tactics from stalls 2 of 7 and also from 7 of 8, which almost makes a mockery of our pace/draw heat map...

Pablo sits in high/led, which should give him a great chance of going well and whilst MoaM shouldn't be suited by a low/held-up positioning, he's a fast finisher and will relish conditions according to Instant Expert...

...where he's the clear standout. Pablo is unproven beyond Class 6 and is up in class here. Mick's Spirit looks weak at going/class/trip and Lilkian is the only other consistent looking runner based on win stats.

*

Our second runner is Algheed who goes in the 6.45 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard tapeta. The racecard...

...says that this 5yr old mare is also in prime form, having won three on the bounce including a course and distance win last time out. None of her rivals come here off the back of a win, but she does step up in class. Three others (Jilly Cooper, Visibility & Global Warning) have also won over course and distance. The yard and jockey are in good form and there's a stack of stats to support our runner here...

Algheed has finished 3111 in her last four by racing in an advanced position and the pace rankings from the field's last four outings suggests she'll be able to tuck in behind Free Solo and Visibility here to get that spot she runs so well from...

...whilst the likes of Rishies Baar and Starshiba are going to have pass everyone else if they're going to be successful. Mind you, the latter is 11313 from his last five, so a hold-up position doesn't necessarily rule him out. He'll make that run from stall 7 with only the likely leader Free Solo outside him. Our featured runner Algheed is just inside in stall 6, so there's a possibility that Starshiba might get drawn into the contest a little sooner than usual.

Of those three runners, the pace stats for past 8-runner 7f contests here suggest Algheed is best suited by the draw...

...whilst a prominent/leading position is the best one to assume in those races...

So, we have Algheed as a mid to high drawn prominent runner and our pace/draw heat map suggests that's a great place to be...

We don't really have any runner to fill the mid-draw mid-div role, so Algheed's placement could well be the best of the lot. There are however, two areas of potential concern as she's going to need another career best here up 5lbs from her last run, but most of these are higher than their last win and the other possible issue is her poor 0/4 record in this grade on the A/W, but her 2 wins and 6 places from 9 Wolverhampton runs might just see her home.

Summary

Two H4C runners in top form...

We started with Man on a Mission, who ticks pretty much every box if you can overlook the fact that he might start slowly, but that hasn't stopped him winning three on the bounce since Christmas. He's only up 3lbs for his latest win and he's the to beat here, I'd say. 5/2 is probably a fair reflection of his chances based on what we've shown above and the main danger might well come from the 11/2 shot Lilkian, who was a length behind the selection LTO and is now 4lbs better off.

Our second runner was Algheed and I like her too, but I'm not quite as bullish about her chances. there are a couple of areas of concern, but she does go really well here and her 2/1 ticket is probably about right. The main rivals in the market are the class-dropping Jilly Cooper, who's back at her best trip and Starshiba, who might well have won last time out had he got going a little sooner. With pace either side of him here, he might get very close to Algheed and I suspect these will be the first three home. Should one fail to fire, it might well open the door to the generally unspectacular, but consistent Visibility, a 4-time track winner, about whom 16/1 might be a tidy E/W punt with Bet365.

You're not getting rich off these two, but they have good chances and they could even land a nice near 10/1 double.

Racing Insights, Friday 20/01/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and as such, have produced two qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, but this selection has been decimated by the current cold snap, leaving us with...

  • 2.20 Southwell
  • 5.45 Newcastle

The latter of those two looks the better contest on paper, so let's have a quick look at the 5.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f...

Bert Kibbler is the only one to have won last time out and he comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins at Southwell. Bellagio Man has made the frame in each of his last seven, including runner-up finishes in each of his last three outings. Modular Magic was also a runner-up LTO.

The bottom three on the card, Bert Kibbler, Modular Magic and Primo's Comet are all up a class, but top weight Papa Don't Preach drops in from from finishing 3rd of 6 at Class 3.

Maritime Rules is the only one yet to win at either trip or track, whilst Motawaazy and Primo's Comet have acheived both here at Newcastle. Bellagio Man's win over 6f here in November makes him the only other course winner, but he's the only other non-winner at 5f. Mind you he's only had one attempt!

Hat-trick seeking Bert Kibbler is not only up in class, but it's also his first run in just over a year, which might be problematical. Maritime Rules has had a seven-week break, but the remainder have all raced in the last three weeks with Papa Don't Preach, Motawaazy and Modular Magic all sighted inside the last week.

We already know that we've three course winners and seven distance winners, but Instant Expert tells me that we've five winners on Std/Slow and two winners on the A/W at this grade...

Motawaazy and Bert Kibbler catch the eye in a largely uninspiring set of figures. Perhaps place data might clarify a few things...

Well, it certainly helps me to eliminate Papa Don't Preach, Dusky Prince and Primo's Comet from my calculations on the basis that if you're scoring red for places, how likely are you to win? Bellagio Man may be 0/9 at this level, but with 7 placed finishes, he's certainly not discounted, especially with a full line of green. After taking those three runners out, my field looks like this in draw order...

...and as you can see, I've removed the two widest drawn runners, which according to our draw analyser, might not be the wisest decision...

..but it does boost the cause of Bert Kibbler in #7, I suppose and if he runs like he was doing last winter, he's the most likely to try to make all here...

...with Instant Expert place eyecatcher Bellagio Man the one to bring up the rear in the early stages. Let's now assess those races from the draw analyser for pace...

...and they're saying that Bert Kibbler's approach should work here, as the further back you race, the harder it is to win, as it is with most 5f contests.

The pace/draw heat map should therefore highlight a high drawn leader as a runner of serious interest...

...and it would suggest that Bert Kibbler is very well positioned.

Summary

Here I have a problem, the pace/draw heatmap is so stacked in Bert Kibbler's favour that it's hard to ignore, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 Tapeta runs over 5f and he does come here on a hat-trick. But there's bad news too, he hasn't raced for just over a year and he's up 8lbs and up in class, so he'd more likely be one for the places if he's not quite race sharp.

The other side of the coin is that I think Modular Magic and Bellagio Man are the best runners in the race (so does the market, sadly), but both are poorly drawn. The former will be closer to the pace than the latter, but the latter's consistency on the A/W is brilliant.

The truth is that I don't know who I think wins this, but if Modular Magic returns to front-running, he could shade it seeing as he lost by a short-head over course and distance a week ago after being unusually held up. He's currently 5/2, Bellagio Man is 9/2 and Bert Kibbler is 6/1. From a value perspective, you'd want the latter to win, but I just can't call it. I think that these are your placers, but none are long enough for me to back E/W, so I'll sit this one out.

Racing Insights, Friday 13/01/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following trio of  qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Huntingdon
  • 3.30 Huntingdon
  • 3.55 Dundalk
  • 4.00 Huntingdon

Three on the bounce from Huntingdon hardly seems random, but that's the luck of the draw and I think I'm going to shun the free races to look at the two H4C report horses in the 3.40 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

No LTO winners here, but Rikona won two starts ago and was a runner-up on her last outing. Sundayinmay was also a recent runner-up, as she has been three times in her last five contests. Elsewhere no real form to consider.

D Day Odette has made the frame just once in her eight winless race career and she now drops in class to run here, but both Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa step up a level. Connections of another 8-race maiden, Thefastnthecurious, will hope that a first-time visor helps their mare make the frame for the first on the A/W after three failures to date.

Yet despite the field's apparent poor form and lack of wins, three of the seven (Rikona, Midgetonamission and Miss Elsa) have all scored over course and distance, whilst Sundayinmay is two from three over a mile and a half on this track. Star from Afarhh, like the two maidens mentioned above, has failed to win at either track or trip.

She (Star) has been off the track the longest of this group, but at 37 days since her last run, the lay-off shouldn't really matter. Only Rikona has raced in 2023, finishing half a length behind the winner over 1m3f at Southwell on New Year's Day. She's one of four 4 yr olds in the race with Miss Elsa the "veteran" at seven!

With this field having a combined win & place percentages of 11.48% and 31.97% respectively (39 places including 14 wins from a combined 122 starts), I'm not to hopeful of gleaning much from Instant Expert, but you never know until you look...

We're obviously only going to get reds from the two maidens at the top of the card and most of these have toiled at Class 5, but Miss Elsa has respectable figures at least, especially just on the All-Weather and at 16lbs lower than her last win, might be well weighted here. The two runners drawn lowest have the best records here at Lingfield. With the lack of much data action above, I think I should see if the overall & A/W place figures can help us...

...where Rikona looks a very strong candidate to make the frame here, as do Sundayinmay and Miss Elsa. Midgetonamission loves it here at Lingfield and gets the trip readily, but all her form is at Class 6. It's interesting (to me, anyway) that the two that look best on that last graphic are drawn at polar opposites in the stalls in berths 1 and 7, so it's time to consult the draw analyser to see which, if any, of them might be best suited. My usual caveat is in place, of course, that over 10f, the draw should have the same effect as over 5f, but let's check that draw analyser...

And aside from what looks an anomalous set of figures for stall 4 (poor Star from Afarhh), my caveat seems to be pretty accurate. Yes high draws do better than low draws, but if you look at the actual data, there's really very little in it...

The Pace Analyser, however, does give us more to work with from those races above...

...showing a pretty clear advantage to biding one's time in mid-division. We log how every horse runs in the UK and we can show you the last four outings for each of these seven runners and it's a score of around 2 we're looking for. Higher is OK, but hold-up horses haven't done well at all..

...and we've got a mixed bag here. Miss Elsa likes to race prominently, but tends not to lead. Rikona's best form has come from a hold-up position. I'd expect Thefastnthecurious to be fairly advanced in the field with Miss Elsa. Sundayinmay and D Day Odette look like our mid-div runners we were looking for and although Star from Afarrh led last time out, I suspect she'll be held up with Midgetonamission.

There's a fair bit of conjecture and interpretation there, admittedly, but I think Sundayinmay just about shades the pace verdict, as she marginally did on draw. We can combine the draw & pace data to form our unique Geegeez heat maps as follow...

...where mid to high drawn mid div runners win most often closely followed by the high drawn leaders, whilst the high drawn mid-div runners & leaders again score well on places. Based on what we've seen above, here's how I think the race might unfold in draw order...

In truth, I think it's going to be a falsely-run race with nobody really wanting to take it on and that would just play into the hands of the 'better' runners here. A few of these might be better off breaking out and having a go at it, most are expected to lose anyway.

Summary

For me the two best runners in the race are Rikona and Sundayinmay, sadly the bookies (as of 4.50pm) agree with me and have them as 11/8 and 5/2 market principals and it's probably an indictment of how poor the race is when the top weight and 8-race maiden (D  Day Odette) is next in line at 4/1. If any were to emerge from the pack to challenge the favourites, then Midgetonamission certainly loves it here and at 18/1 with both Hills & Bet365 paying three places, she might be worth a couple of pennies as an E/W interest.

The 1-2, however, should be Rikona and Sundayinmay and I think I'd like the latter from the H4C report to beat the former.