The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 4.15 Pontefract
- 4.45 Pontefract
- 7.15 Windsor
- 8.45 Windsor
...from which, I'm going to have a look at the 7.15 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm, ground...
...where hat-trick seeking and fast-finishing Haymaker is the sole LTO winner, although Aramis Grey and Amazonian Dream finished second and third respectively on their last outings. Yet despite being a regular placer (15 top 3 finishes from her last 19 races), Aramis Grey is the only runner in this field without a win in starts, having suffered eleven defeats on the bounce and her cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a class here, as does Under The Twilight, whilst 'form horse' Haymaker is up two classes.
Rohaan and Wallop both last raced eight weeks ago and the other half dozen have all been seen in the last 10-23 days, so we should have no fitness issues from a field where all eight have won at least once over today's trip and all bar the afore-mentioned Rohaan and Wallop have won over course and distance, Mind you, neither has been to Windsor before, as demonstrated by Instant Expert...
...where my main concerns are the lack of Class 2 wins aside from Rohaan, of course and Aramis Grey's poor win record at this trip plus the fact she's some 15lbs higher than her last win. That, I suppose, is the danger of running well, but not quite well enough to win.
With the lack of Class 2 wins above, it might well be worth looking at Class 3 form...
...where Katey Kontent has been the standout with all of Under The Twilight's wins coming at Class 4. With the lack of Class 2 form above, I've included the Class 3 data in the place stats from above...
...and here you can see some of Aramis Grey's placed finishes that I mentioned earlier as she, along with Under The Twilight, Haymaker, Katey Kontent and Shagraan seem the ones to focus upon.
There shouldn't be too much of an advantage for any of these runners from the draw, although Amazonian Dream should be aware that there's a fair drop off beyond stall 7...
...and whilst those draw stats aren't a huge help to us, our feature of the day is PACE and we're at Windsor for a straight 6f on quick ground, where pace is key. We didn't get much help from the draw in those 110+ races, but just look at how they were won...
...which speaks for itself, I think. So, we want to be on a front-runner and preferably not from stall 8, so if we look at how the field has approached its last few outings...
...we can make a fairly reasoned assumption that Shagraan might well attempt to win this from the front from stall 2 with the in-form Haymaker the one most likely to give chase.
Summary
Short and hopefully sweet today, but from the pace chart (which is key at Windsor), Shagraan and Haymaker could be a fair way clear of Aramis Grey, Katey Kontent and Under The Twilight (I'd already ruled Wallop, Amazonian Dream and Rohaan out of my considerations) and I'm certainly wanting these front-runners in my final three.
As for the third placer, I actually think that Katey Kontent might well be the best horse in the race, but won't be suited by the pace of this one but should still make the frame. As for the winner, I prefer Shagraan over Haymaker, as the former will be out in front first and the latter is up two classes, but should still place.
Sadly, though, the bookies are also on to this pace bias at Windsor and as of 4.45pm Sunday, they went...
Based on the above, perennial placer Aramis Grey might not be a bad E/W shout if any of my preferred trio fail to fire.