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Placepot Pointers – Monday 23rd October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £17.20 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Milan Reef), 14 (Bee Machine), 12 (Ventura Quest) & 10 (Barney George)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Sioux Rising), 1 (Dawn Breaking) & 2 (Fortunate Vision)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Shaheen), 9 (Purple Rock) & 13 (Misscarlet)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Old Persian), 4 (Learn By Heart) & 10 (Unwritten)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Know Your Limit) & 9 (Tranquil Star)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Minotaur) & 5 (Dominating)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less (14 have been burdened with a maximum of 9-0), and the pick of the runners emerging from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap include MILAN REEF (drawn 4/14), BEE MACHINE (9) and VENTURA QUEST (3). Horses drawn in trap 1 have finished in the frame four times during the last six years as you can see below, as well as claiming toteplacepot positions in seven of the last thirteen contests.  BARNEY GEORGE (1) is also nominated accordingly, despite the fact that Ian Jardine’s raider is quoted as a 20/1 chance in the trade press this morning.  Indeed, 33/1 is available this morning in a few places which defies belief, given that trainer Iain Jardine has saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect as well as ‘Barney’ occupying a favourable stall position.  ‘Barney’ is Iain’s only runner today.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – most recent result listed first):

6-1-11 (10 ran-soft)

9-11-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-4 (13 ran-soft)

7-5-4 (14 ran-heavy)

8-1-2 (8 ran-heavy)

6-1-2 (14 ran-good)

12-5-3-10 (17 ran-good)

12-9-17 (14 ran-good)

8-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-6-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

17-16-5-14 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-5-2-1 (16 ran-good)

5-11-1-12 (16 ran-good to soft)

4-13-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

16-18-2-19 (19 ran-good)

10-9-13-2 (19 ran-good to firm)

4-7-1-13 (20 ran-soft)

4-11-20-9 (18 ran-soft)

16-2-18-1 (20 ran-heavy)

9-20-4-11 (19 ran-good)

18-16-4-19 (20 ran-soft)

20-16-17-7 (19 ran-good to soft)

 

2.40: You will have to excuse my belligerent mood this morning (not feeling 100%) but I have to take issue with the powers that be for calling this a ‘new race’ (yet again) given that it is only the change of ‘novice prefix’ that is different, with the contest remaining as a Class 5 event over six furlongs.  I have left my figures in place whereby it is your decision whether you take notice of the stats or ‘adopt’ the other option.  Upwards and onward by informing that Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners of this juvenile event when represented and the trainer has offered the green light to SIOUX RISING on this occasion.  I take little (or no) comfort from the fact that the form was registered at Redcar which offers dubious consistency in general terms from my perspective.  Trainer David Brown has had a poor season by his standards, registering a strike rate of just 7% this term, though his recent Catterick winner FORTUNATE VISION will hopefully lift the spirit of the yard by figuring prominently in this grade/company.  I’m not sure where else you could read the fact that an underrated trainer here boasts stats of 6/11 at Pontefract this season, namely Richard Whitaker (DAWN BREAKING), a ratio which has produced level stake profits of 23 points.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 17 of the 23 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dawn Breaking (heavy)

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-2-8 (9 ran-soft)

9-6-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-6-11 (12 ran-soft)

4-5-3 (10 ran-heavy)

2-12-5 (12 ran-heavy)

9-7-11 (14 ran-good)

9-3-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-16-1 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-8-12 (13 ran-good)

5-7-4 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-6-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-10-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

2-3-4 (12 ran-good)

8-1-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-17 (17 ran-soft)

15-10-17 (18 ran-soft)

 

3.20: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared eight of the last nine renewals of this contest, with soft ground course winner ROYAL SHAHEEN potentially representing the four-year-old vintage to good effect.  7/1 is still available with Bet365 as I write which looks a ‘bet to nothing’ from an each way perspective from my viewpoint.  Others to consider include PURPLE ROCK and three-year-old MISSCARLET who has plenty of scope for improvement on just her third assignment.

Favourite factor: Four clear favourites have won during the last eight years (seven and half points of level stake profit) during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.  Indeed, seven of those gold medallists scored at 5/1 or less, though just one of the other five market leaders during the period additionally claimed a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/7—Save The Bees (good to firm)

1/2—Royal Shaheen (soft)

1/1—Misscarlet (soft)

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby swerved the entire weekend which only goes to prove that not all heads are turned because of substantial prize money.  Cynical readers might suggest that Charlie’s team might have been out of form but that simply is not the case, as the popular trainer has saddled five of his last eleven runners to winning effect, stats which have produced sixteen points of level stake profit.  Charlie saddled the winner of this event last year for good measure, whereby OLD PERSIAN is very much the first name on the team sheet.  Don’t expect 7/4 to be on offer however, as indicated in the trade press betting forecast.  LEARN BY HEART looks set to offer another solid performance on ground which suits, whilst UNWRITTEN could become a market mover if plenty of rain evolves during the morning.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have won in the last 20 years, whilst 18 of the 23 favourites secured toteplacepot dividends during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Unwritten (heavy)

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have secured eleven of the twelve Placepot positions to date, albeit from around 75% of the runners which have contested just four renewals to date.  Vintage representatives are 1/3 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, with KNOW YOUR LIMIT and TRANQUIL STAR fully expected to secure the fourth three-year-old victory in the race between them.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two successful (15/8 & 7/4) market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.50: Pontefract's obsession with hold staying races at every meeting drags on though to be entirely fair, it's just about the only ‘complaint’ I have about the venue. These events are more like graded greyhound races as old rivals shake hooves before going in the traps to see whose day it is going to be from meeting to meeting.  That said, I know some punters will hold their own (more positive) views but I can never get away from the fact that horses which lack pace to contest shorter events defies the intention of the sport.  Yes, thousands of horses contest races over two miles and more in the NH sector, though the discipline of jumping timber makes that a spectacle worth viewing each and every time.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MINOTAUR and DOMINATING should land the dividend between them if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged before last year’s 5/6 favourites finished second when securing a Placepot position..

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/20—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)

2/7—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

7 runners—Tim Easterby (8/43 +6)

5—Richard Fahey (9/81 – loss of 29 points)

4—Bryan Smart (1/8 +3)

4—Ed Walker (0/1)

3—Karl Burke (2/24 – loss of 17 points)

3—Mark Johnston (7/48 – loss of 24 points)

2—Michael Appleby (0/15)

2—Marco Botti (0/1)

2—Declan Carroll (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

2—Mick Channon (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Michael Dods (1/30 – loss of 13 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/23 +2)

2—Les Eyre (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/14)

2—William Haggas (0/5)

2—Micky Hammond (4/28 +10)

2—Sally Haynes (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Paul Midgley (1/23 – loss of 15 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/27 +2)

2—Jimmy Quinn (level return this season)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/11 +23)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Windsor: £762.80 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Plumpton: £68.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.50 York : Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 : Prominent, led over 2f out, held on towards finish to win by a neck...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Killay @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' handicap over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 4 yr old filly with just four runs under her belt to date, but placed in all of them (2213) and all under today's jockey Charlie Bishop, with whom she seems to have struck up some understanding.

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Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's runners are going well of late, winning 5 of 25 (20% SR) over the last fortnight, but this late season form is unsurprising, when you find that...

..EJH / Flat handicaps / 6 to 10.5 furlongs / August-October / 3-5 yr olds / 2013-17 = 35/186 (18.8% SR) for 121.8pts (+65.5% ROI), with the following of particular relevance here...

  •  in 3yo+ handicaps : 27/145 (18.6%) for 109.3pts (+75.4%)
  • 11 to 45 days after their last run : 30/139 (21.6%) for 135.5pts (+97.5%)
  • 3 yr olds are 21/108 (19.4%) for 72.1pts (+66.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 31pts (+56.4%)
  • and here at Windsor : 4/17 (23.5%) for 18pts (+105.8%)

Plus, in that same 2013-17 time frame, Eve's 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ Flat handicaps are 20/103 (19.4% SR) for 90.6pts (+87.9% ROI), from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 13/59 (22%) for 88.6pts (+150.2%)
  • females are 9/46 (19.6%) for 59.3pts (+128.9%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 925%) for 17.34pts (+86.7%)
  • and here at Windsor, it's 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 19.7pts at an ROI of some 246.6%

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Killay @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday with plenty of more-than-acceptable 7/2 BOG elsewhere To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.50 York : Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 : Prominent, led over 2f out, held on towards finish to win by a neck...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Killay @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' handicap over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 4 yr old filly with just four runs under her belt to date, but placed in all of them (2213) and all under today's jockey Charlie Bishop, with whom she seems to have struck up some understanding.

Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's runners are going well of late, winning 5 of 25 (20% SR) over the last fortnight, but this late season form is unsurprising, when you find that...

..EJH / Flat handicaps / 6 to 10.5 furlongs / August-October / 3-5 yr olds / 2013-17 = 35/186 (18.8% SR) for 121.8pts (+65.5% ROI), with the following of particular relevance here...

  •  in 3yo+ handicaps : 27/145 (18.6%) for 109.3pts (+75.4%)
  • 11 to 45 days after their last run : 30/139 (21.6%) for 135.5pts (+97.5%)
  • 3 yr olds are 21/108 (19.4%) for 72.1pts (+66.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 31pts (+56.4%)
  • and here at Windsor : 4/17 (23.5%) for 18pts (+105.8%)

Plus, in that same 2013-17 time frame, Eve's 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ Flat handicaps are 20/103 (19.4% SR) for 90.6pts (+87.9% ROI), from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 13/59 (22%) for 88.6pts (+150.2%)
  • females are 9/46 (19.6%) for 59.3pts (+128.9%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 925%) for 17.34pts (+86.7%)
  • and here at Windsor, it's 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 19.7pts at an ROI of some 246.6%

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Killay @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday with plenty of more-than-acceptable 7/2 BOG elsewhere To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £76.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Eyecatcher) & 2 (Austrian School)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Rastacap) & 1 (Camacho Chief)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Mushaired), 3 (Me Too Nagasaki) & 1 (The Grape Escape)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Transpennine Star), 3 (Gran Maestro) & 2 (La Fritillaire)

Leg 5 (3.55): 12 (Mr Cool Cash), 2 (Working Class) & 8 (Beverley Bullet)

Leg 6 (4.25): 5 (Duke’s Girl), 2 (Miramar) & 3 (Snookered)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The only money in the dead of night has been for the Simon Crisford trained EYECATCHER and to a lesser degree AUSTRIAN SCHOOL representing Mark Johnston.  Richard Hannon only saddles two runners on the card and though probably no match for the first named pair, BOMBSHELL BAY might sneak a place at a double figure price on behalf of the yard.

Favourite factor: This opening event is a new race on the Pontefract card.

 

2.25: 12 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more which suggests that the bottom four horses (of six) in the handicap can be eliminated from our enquiries, given that FEEBS is ridden by seven pound claimer Harrison Shaw. This fits into my plan anyway, as RASTACAP and COMACHE CHIEF were always going to be short listed before I looked up the stats for the contest.

Favourite factor: The successful 2/1 market leader four years ago was the first to score in 15 years, whilst eight ’jollies’ had secured toteplacepot positions in the process before three of the last five favourites finished out with the washing.

 

2.55:  Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and at 5/1 at the time of writing, Richard Fahey’s soft ground course winner MUSHAIRED could be viewed as an each way ‘bet to nothing’, especially if all eight runners stand their ground.  Jeremy Noseda has sent ME TOO NAGASAKI on a long journey all alone in his horsebox, which suggests that this Iffraaj colt (winner on heavy ground) will go close to winning.  That said, Richard Hannon’s other runners on the card is THE GRAPE ESCAPE who cannot be left out of the Placepot equation.  All three horses mentioned in despatches hail from the superior weight sector according to the relevant trend.

Favourite factor: Just three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, whilst ‘only’ ten of the 21 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.  That said, the biggest priced winners during the last six year was returned at just 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Mushaired (soft)

 

3.25: LA FRITILLAIRE returns to defend his crown and with the ground in his favour, 14/1 will not be his price on Monday, on that we can be sure.  Whether James Given’s five-year-old will be able to follow up his latest course victory remains to be seen as he has only put back to back victories together once via his five wins to date.  TRANSPENNINE STAR was thwarted by the minimum margin by the first named raider the last day and thanks to a claimer on board, the Michael Dods top-weight meets the rival on almost the same terms.  Money for GRAN MAESTRO would give the race a different look completely though as regular readers know, it makes little difference to yours truly who retires to the bar in double quick time in these repetitive staying races at Pontefract.  Whose turn is it to win today?

Favourite factor: The two inaugural joint (7/2) favourites both finished out of the frame before last year’s 2/1 market leader was beaten by a head.  Both winners to date were returned at 14/1.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Lady Of Yue (good)

2/29—Riptide (good & good to firm)

2/19—Tuscan Gold (good & good to firm)

2/20—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)

 

3.55: MR COOL CASH won one of the two divisions of this event last year though that said, Richard Guest’s five year-old has won only one of his subsequent 19 starts, albeit of today’s mark of 66.  Somehow or another, all seventeen potential runners have stood their ground thus far, though as I am writing this before stable staff have woken up, there is plenty of time from that scenario to change.  Hopefully four places will be up for grabs (don’t bet on it) though either way, my Placepot trio is completed by WORKING CLASS and BEVERLEY BULLET.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (11/4**) winner.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

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2/14—Kiwi Bay (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Beverley Bullet (soft)

1/3—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)

2/10—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

1/3—Ravenhoe (good to firm)

 

4.25: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones and the pick of the relevant seven entries will hopefully prove to be DUKE’S GIRL, MIRAMAR and SNOOKERED.  That said, Cornerstone Lad sits just 16 ounces below the superior weight sector and there will be worse 10/1 chances contesting races at Pontefract Park this afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites have secured an aggregate of three gold and two silver medals to date whilst gaining toteplacepot positions in the process. Three of the last five winners have scored at 25/1-14/1-10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Pontefract card on Monday followed by their rations at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (9/75 – loss of 23 points)

5—Mark Johnston (6/43 – loss of 24 points)

4—Michael Dods (1/26 – loss of 9 points)

4—David O’Meara (8/43 +1)

3—Tim Easterby (8/40 +4)

3—Micky Hammond (2/25 – loss of 7 points)

2—Karl Burke (2/22 – loss of 15 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/21 +4)

2—Brian Ellison (1/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—Les Eyre (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (2/14 +17)

2—Richard Hannon (1/1 +3)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/4)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/10 +24)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Salisbury: £20.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £8.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday September 4th

BRIGHTON – SEPTEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £627.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (Lady Godiva) & 1 (Daybreak)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Perfect Pastime), 6 (Lucky Di) & 7 (Angelical Eve)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Princess Lyla), 4 (One For June) & 3 (Queen of Kalahari)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Alwaysandforever), 3 (Sugardrop) & 2 (Shankara)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Chough) & 1 (The Special One)

Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Lawfilly), 1 (With Approval) & 2 (Alketios)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Richard Hannon has saddled the two of the last three winners of the race (Richard was not represented in the inaugural contest) whereby the chance of LADY GODIVA is fully respected, especially with the trainer having scored with two of his three runners here at Brighton yesterday when securing a 12/1 double.  Richard's Camelot filly will be running on half decent ground for the first time whereby her first two efforts might have offered a false impression relating to what she is capable of.  Holly Doyle’s three pound claim is also a positive factor in a race which might not take a great deal of winning.  DAYBREAK undoubtedly sets the standard though let’s be honest, the bar has not been set very high thus far regarding the seven experienced runners in the field.  On the positive side, two of Hughie Morrison’s last eight runners have won, both gold medallists having hailed from his juvenile contingent.  Newcomers Living In The Now and Musical Theatre would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner at 5/2), though it’s worth noting that a 4/9 market leader was beaten in a win only contest in the inaugural contest in 2013.

 

2.30:  The appropriate winner in 2014 was called Bookmaker, especially as the first three winners of this event scored at 25/1, 16/1 & 12/1.  It’s hardly surprising that four time course winner PERFECT PASTIME has attracted some money overnight in a very average contest, whereby the 11/1 quote of Bet365 stands out from the crowd at the time of writing.  Jim Boyle saddled a couple of winners in August which offers some confidence in a season which has not panned out particularly well for the trainer.  Peter Hedger’s last three runners have snared one gold medal and two of the silver variety whereby LUCKY DI is another each way type to consider, especially as Peter has only saddled more turf winners at Goodwood and Newbury than he has secured at Brighton since the old king died. George Baker secured a 32/1 double on the corresponding card last year which offers hope for ANGELICAL EVE from my viewpoint.  In a race which has bookmakers result written all over it, my three ‘outsiders’ are taken against the field in speculative fashion.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured toteplacepot, statistics which include last year’s successful 11/4 market leader.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

4/15—Perfect Pastime (4 x good)

1/3—Strictly Carter (good to firm)

 

3.00: The favourite factor stats below are worth more than a glance given the appalling record of market leaders in this event, albeit after just four renewals. Nursery events (two-year-old handicaps) have a habit of kicking investors in the teeth at this time of year as trainers are ever more trying to win races in any shape or form in order to get orders in the for the winter from their respective owners.  This is especially so in the juvenile division, as handlers try to eek out any improvement they can obtain via ‘headgear’ or any other way they can conjure up a winner.  The first three offerings from PRINCESS LYLA camouflaged what was to come when the Richard Hughes raider scored 12/1 in her first Nursery contest.  Sure enough, the Arakan filly followed up successfully in another two-year-old handicap at Wolverhampton and with five pound claimer Finley Marsh retained in the saddle, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the hat trick will be landed in this grade/company.  I have not entirely written off the chance for ONE FOR JUNE who has contested warm races on her last two outings, whilst QUEEN OF KALAHARI in also added into the mix.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has secured a Placepot position and even then the 1/2 chance was beaten from a win perspective!  Two of the last three winners triumphed at 25/1 & 20/1.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Haveoneyourself (good to firm)

 

3.30: Trainers have to make you laugh at times because when handlers up and down the country are screaming out for races confines to fillies and/or mares, just three declarations for this relevant new race on the card have ensued.  It might not be as bad if we had a trio of three-year-olds of similar ability but with ALWAYSANDFOREVER seemingly a class apart here, most punters at the track will retire to the bar, especially with any warmth in non-existent sun in most parts of the country only being conspicuous by its absence.  That said, many ‘Potters’ will have learned the lesson from yesterday when ‘win only races’ (as documented on this service yesterday) can destroy many a Placepot dream, whereby SUGARDOP and SHANKARA (refused to race last time out) are added into the equation just in case lightning strikes twice in as many days on the Sussex downs.  That said, Luca Cumnani (ALWAYSANDFOREVER) has saddled five of his last 13 runners to winning effect, stats which have produced over 15 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card.

 

4.00: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 which eliminates all bar the top three horses in the list when taking jockey claims into account.  CHOUGH and Ali Stronge’s hat trick seeker THE SPECIAL ONE are ahead of HARLEQUIN ROCK in the queue on current form (though Mick Quinn – Harlequin Rock - can produce the odd rabbit out of the hat), which takes us straight in the last Placepot race on the card.  Next!

Favourite factor: The five favourites have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety thus far, securing Placepot position in every race thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—The Special One (good to firm)

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1/5—Suni Dancer (good)

 

4.30: Although the relevant seven pound claimer drops LAWFILLY below the ‘superior’ weight barrier (see previous race details for this second heat), the Richard Hughes Lawman filly is impossible to ignore from a Placepot perspective.  Further up the handicap, I am not surprised by the overnight support for WITH APPROVAL, whilst ALKETIOS should make the frame representing the dual purpose yard of ‘local’ trainer Chris Gordon.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same (positive) favourite stats apply.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—With Approval (good)

3/23—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm- firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track yesterday:

3 runners—Tony Carroll (No runners at the track yesterday)

3—Richard Hughes (0/2)

3—Seamus Mullins (No runners)

2—George Baker (No runners)

2—Jim Boyle (No runners)

2—Mick Channon (0/2)

2—Julia Feilden (No runners)

2—Ed de Giles (0/1)

2—Richard Hannon (2/3)

2—Charlie Hills (No runners)

2—Gary Moore (1/2)

2—Hughie Morrison (No runners)

2—Neil Mulholland (No runners)

2—Tony Newcombe (No runners)

2—Mick Quinn (0/1)

2—David Simcock (0/1)

2—Joseph Tuite (0/1)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £70.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Windsor: £23,856.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th August

YORK – EBOR HANDICAP DAY - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £423.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 5 (Mustashry) & 7 (Make Time)

Leg 2 (2.25): 12 (Bush House), 6 (Master Singer) & 8 (The Grand Visir)

Leg 3 (3.00): 11 (Stormbringer), 8 (Nobleman’s Quest) & 5 (Headway)

Leg 4 (3.35): 20 (Magic Circle), 17 (Wild Hacked) & 11 (Star Storm)

Leg 5 (4.10): 12 (Falabelle), 13 (Formidable Kitt) & 8 (To Wafij)

Leg 6 (4.40): 6 (Weekend Offender), 16 (Brorocco) & 13 (Storm King)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last 13 renewals and yet MUSTASHRY is the only vintage representative in the line up on this occasion.  If this were an NH event with similar trends in place on a big race day, Paul Nicholls would be all over it like a disease, not wanting just to trainer the winner, but also the second and the third!  That is one of the main differences between the codes, in that NH trainers follow the trends more, no matter what ‘media types’ would have you believe.  Fortunately Sir Michael Stoute is wise to the ‘edge’ this time around and I expect Michael’s recent Chelmsford winner to transfer his A/W form to turf successfully.  MAKE TIME is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest ahead of MONDIALISTE.

Favourite factor: Five of the last thirteen favourites have scored.  The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

Course record in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes:

1/3—Master The World (good)

1/4—Mondaliste (good)

 

2.25: 13 of the last 14 winners of the 'Melrose' carried weights of 9-4 or less whereby my speculative quartet against the field consists of MASTER SINGER, HERE AND NOW, BUSH HOUSE and THE GRAND VISIR.  All four horses are expected to outrun their current odds, with 16/1 about BUSH HOUSE arguably being the value for money call if you wanted yours truly to name one individual.  Hugo Palmer’s Canford Cliffs gelding is closely match with Bin Batutta on earlier form this season and yet Jo Gordon’s mount is twice the price of the Godlphin raider.  The other point to consider is that John Gosden’s only runner on the card is MASTER SINGER which makes for interesting reading to say the very least.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last 16 favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium during which time, whilst the last eight winners have scored at prices ranging between 8/1 & 28/1.

 

3.00: Kevin Ryan has secured the two of the last five renewals of this ‘Gimcrack‘ event (last year’s stable representative was pulled up), also having saddled Aamadeus Wold to score twelve years ago.  Kevin’s recent Redcar winner STORMBRINGER could be the ‘dark horse’ in the line up, though I trust Redcar form as much Arsenal’s defence these days.  Kevin becomes ‘attached’ to juvenile races when he gets his claws into the relevant contests and given the ammunition he has back at the ranch, his decision to offer the green light to his Dutch Art representative is good enough for me, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  Others to consider include Mark Johnston’s typically tenacious juvenile CARDSHARP alongside potential improvers in HEADWAY and NOBLEMAN’S QUEST.

Favourite factor:  Only two favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, albeit eleven of the last twelve winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Eight of the sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

4-10-7 (10 ran-good)

9-5-4 (8 ran-good)

5-6-9 (9 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

6-7-23 (8 ran-good)

1-4-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

4-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-2-4 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

9-7-6 (13 ran-good)

2-4-3 (11 ran-soft)

9-5-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-4-1 (11 ran-good)

9-7-2 (9 ran-good)

2-5-3 (10 ran-good)

7-1-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5-8 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

 

3.35: The number of three-year-old declarations in the Ebor Handicap has dropped, with only the very best vintage representatives able to take their place in the line-up which disappoints yours truly to a fashion. The last junior winner was recorded in 2001 and once again, three-year-olds are conspicuous only by their absence on this occasion.  The 2015 seven-year-old winner was the first older horse (seven or more) to win in over 35 years.  12 of the last 15 winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only two winners drawn in single figures during the study period. The last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests.  Taking the facts and stats into account, my ‘short list’ for the contest consists of MAGIC CIRCLE, WILD HACKED, NAKEETA and STAR STORM.  I immediately had the thought that MAGIC CIRCLE could be ‘thrown in’ for his next race when Ralph Beckett’s five year-old won the other day, without realising at the time that he was still entered in this event.  Getting in off the bottom mark in the race suggests to yours truly that the current 9/1 quote might just be the subject of a right old gamble leading up to flag fall.  We shall see, given that stall five does present us with a negative factor.  The reserve nomination is offered to LORD YEATS who just misses out via his mark in the handicap having done us a fine favour earlier in the season.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via the last 18 renewals with 10 market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

Course winners in the Ebor Handicap:

1/1—Lord Yeats (soft)

1/2—Scarlet Dragon (good)

4/11—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

2/2—Magic Circle (good & good to soft)

 

4.10: Second and third favourites have decent records in this event of late, whilst the likes of FALABELLE, FORMIDABLE KITT and TO WAFIJ boast claims from my viewpoint in another difficult race to assess on the card.  The latter named Roger Varian raider has not done a great deal wrong thus far whereby it could be argued that Roger’s Kodiac colt could be given another chance at a half decent price.  The first named pair both hail from stables which have saddled winners this week (I’m writing this column before racing took place on Friday), whereby the trio should give us a decent run for our collective Placepot monies, if we are fortunate enough to be in the mix this late in the day.

Favourite factor:  Three favourites have won via the last 18 renewals, whilst 12 of the other 16 market leaders failed to reach the frame.  Only one favourite has obliged via 12 renewals during the last 13 years, though 10 of those gold medallists were returned at a top price of 17/2.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-8-1 (8 ran-good)

8-4-7 (9 ran-good)

1-6-4 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (6 ran-soft)

3-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

10-1-4 (10 ran-good)

9-13-6 (13 ran-good)

2-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2-7 (10 ran-good)

6-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

4-6-7 (10 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-soft)

2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-9 (10 ran-good)

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8-4-2 (8 ran-good)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

7-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good)

Course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Angel Force (good to soft)

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals, whilst securing 24 of the last 47 available toteplacepot positions.  Vintage representatives are 6/4 to improve the ratio via eight relevant declarations this time around.  11 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby a value for money ‘short list’ of WEEKEND OFFFENDER, BROROCCO and STORM KING emerges.  The latter named David Griffiths raider does not fit the vintage trend but David knows how to place his horses well enough to include his hat trick seeker in the equation. It might be as well to consider David’s impressive 3/7 stats here at York at the time of writing, with the trainer boasting 19 points of level profit stakes for good measure.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to UAE PRINCE.

Favourite factor:  Ten of the last nineteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which includes five winners during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a furlongs):

2-12-13-6 (16 ran-good)

15-7-17 (15 ran-good)

9-16-5 (15 ran-good)

10-5-6 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-11-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)

7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)

14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)

14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)

8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-4-2 (9 ran-good)

16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)

1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)

5-4-11 (11 ran-good)

3-9-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-14-9-4 (16 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4--Snoano (good to soft)

1/5—Weekend Offender (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Saturday:

7 runners—Richard Fahey

7—Mark Johnston

7—David O’Meara

4—Kevin Ryan

4—Sir Michael Stoute

3—Andrew Balding

3—Declan Carroll

3—Tim Easterby

3—William Haggas

3—Iain Jardine

3—Hugo Palmer

3—Saeed Bin Suroor

3—Roger Varian

2—David Barron

2—Ralph Beckett

2—John Best

2—Clive Cox

2—Tom Dascombe

2—Michael Dods

2—Mick Easterby

2—David C Griffiths

2—Richard Hannon

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

113 declared runners 

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Goodwood: £253.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newmarket: £59.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Redcar: £203.50 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £60.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Cartmel: £51.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st August

WINDSOR - AUGUST 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £23.60 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 1 (Snazzy Jazzy) & 4 (Qianlong)

Leg 2 (5.50): 7 (Eskendash), 10 (Essenaitch) & 9 (Glorious Poet)

Leg 3 (6.20): 4 (UAE Queen), 5 (Medicean Ballet) & 7 (Snow Squaw)

Leg 4 (6.50): 6 (Ice Age), 1 (Stake Acclaim) & 4 (Spring Loaded)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Maazel), 10 (Liberatum) & 5 (Peace Dreamer)

Leg 6 (7.50): 3 (Ennjaaz) & 7 (Turnpike Trip)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Windsor - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.20: This is another of the ‘new’ races installed by the BHA because of its change of status (now a novice race instead of an ordinary maiden event.  Roger Varian has won with six of his last eleven runners and the ratio could improve today, albeit the popular trainer has six runners entered up, four of which run here at Windsor.  QIANLONG is the first representative on the card and there was plenty to like about his runner up effort at Nottingham on his first day at school.  That said, the ground was heavy at Colwick Park that day whereby he might need every one of the six pound concession from SNAZZY JAZZY who gained his debut victory under today’s projected (good) conditions at Goodwood.  There was rain on the radar at the time I checked Windsor this morning at 3.30 but that is (seemingly) due to clear for the rest of the day at first light.  Society Power demands a market check as the day progresses from your perspective, given that I have to play my cards much earlier this morning as far as this column is concerned.

Favourite factor: To be fair, I have clung on to the trends in these events because the change has been minimum (nothing at times). That said, this event had changed in grade whereby I am including the trend for the last time so this time next year, I will only be showing today’s result. The six favourites to date have secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety if you (conveniently) ignore the slight alteration.

 

5.50: Although ESKENDASH has only won once thus far, Pam Sly’s gelding has finished ‘in the two’ on six of his seven assignments whereby the trade press quote of 13/2 looks wide of the mark.  Yes, the success was gained away from turf whilst Adam Kirby’s mount comes to the gig as a beaten favourite.  That said, these rivals do not make a habit of winning either and with the selection being far less exposed than most, ESKENDASH would be classed as a ‘knocking’ each way bet if you could secure 5/1, though I doubt bookmakers will be that generous.  Punters do not always understand that when layers price up these events, bookmakers will do everything they can to protect their place liabilities when quoting the relevant odds.  I suspect you will be doing well to obtain 9/2 whereby you will suffer a slight loss should Pam’s raider finish in the frame without winning.  The race is (otherwise) full of imponderables, whereby speculative Placepot investors could include ESSENAITCH and GLORIOUS POET, hoping that hoses with far more Placepot units finish out with the washing.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Captain Peacock (good)

1/2—Michael’s Mount (good to soft)

1/3—Outback Blue (good)

1/8—Essenaitch (good to soft)

 

6.20: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight (and eight of the last ten) contests, with vintage representatives UAE QUEEN and MEDICEAN BALLET appearing to hold strong Placepot chances, the pair being listed in order of preference.  UAE QUEEN is the second of the Roger Varian runners on the card, whilst Henry Candy (Medicean Ballet) has saddled three horses to claim Placepot positions at the meeting during the last five years, albeit Henry’s runners have all been beaten from a win perspective.  There will be worse outsiders to consider on the card than SNOW SQUAW I’ll wager, with David Elsworth’s Excelebration filly vying for a place in my Placepot mix at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have secured this prize during the last eleven years, whilst 11 of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/2—High On Love (good to firm)

1/5—Fastnet Spin (soft)

 

6.50: ICE AGE looks set to be sent off at a bigger price than when finishing third in this race last year when beaten four and a quarter lengths from stall 10.  Drawn slight wider (11) tonight, ICE AGE still represents the win and place call from my viewpoint, given that the relevant three pound claimer nearly negates what would have been an inferior differential compared to twelve months ago.  A winner here over course and distance last time to qualify for this finale of the series, ICE AGE carries a five pound penalty accordingly, though the four-year-old is still marginally preferred to STAKE ACCLAIM and SPRING LOADED at the prices on offer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite finished nearer last than first in a race in which the frame was filled by horses returned at 7/1, 16/1 & 9/1 (Ice Age).

Record of the course winners in the main event on the card. 

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2/5—Stake Acclaim (good & soft)

1/5--Upstaging (good)

1/2—Spring Loaded (good)

1/3--Atletico (good to soft)

2/6—Ice Age (good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—Parnassian (good to firm)

1/3—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Goring (good)

1/4—Major Pusey (good to soft)

2/6—Englishman (good & soft)

 

7.20: Each way support had arrived overnight for Ruth Carr’s northern raider LIBERATUM and PEACE DREAMER by the time I came to look at this event and with nothing else to work with, this pair will be included in my Placepot equation alongside MAAZEL, who is the last of the sextet of Varian representatives today.  First time blinkers would only need to bring about a modicum of improvement in Roger’s Elzaam gelding to take him very close in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Windsor programme.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager: 

1/4—Sandfrankskipsgo (good to firm)

1/3—Awesome Allan (soft)

 

7.50:  Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their older rivals in these mixed vintage maiden events and the trend should be extended here with Saeed Bin Suroor’s newcomer ENNJAAZ having been declared alongside TURNPIKE TRIP and LEWINSKY.  Henry Candy appears to have found an easier opportunity for TURNPIKE TRIP, albeit Dane O’Neill’s mount enters my ‘last chance saloon’ this evening.  ENNJAAZ will be Saeed’s third winner in a row if he can land the spoils at the first time of asking, with Pat Cosgrave having waited since the opening race for only his second ride at the meeting.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 market leader duly obliged.  8/13 does not make a lot of sense to many people outside of the sport and even some inside the sport of kings.  If ever odds fail to make any sense, simply grab a calculator and in this case divide 8 by 13 to give you the sum of .615.  Simply add a point to that total and divide 100 by 1.615 to give you the correct percentage of 61.9%.  If you believe the horse, greyhound or football team has a 65% chance of winning any event you should play at odds of 8/13.  If (before you did the math) you only rated the relevant chance at 55%, keep your cash under lock and key.  There is nothing complicated about it all really.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Win & place format for relevant represented trainers (Five year study period relating to the corresponding meeting) at Windsor tonight:

Trainers with at least 1 winner and 2 placed horses

Gary Moore – 3 winners (5/1, 11/10* & 8/11*) & 2 placed – 1 runner tonight:

100/1 chance Sampaquita (7.50)

‘Team Hannon’ – 1 winner (5/2*) + 4 places – 4 runners tonight: Heidi (5.20), Boucie (5.50), Carducci (6.20) & Tomily (6.50)

 

Trainers who failed to saddle a winner but who have had at least three horses placed:

Henry Candy – 3 placed horses 7/1, 3/1 & 7/4) – 3 runners tonight: Medicean Bullet (6.20), Beck And Call (7.20) & Turnpike Trip (7.50)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield: £6.60 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed

Thirsk: £8.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Hexham: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th August

WINDSOR – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £50.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.40): 3 (Flowing Clarets), 1 (Captain Ryan), 14 (Kath’s Boy) & 11 (Royal Normandy)

Leg 2 (6.10): 3 (Jupiter) & 4 (Lansky)

Leg 3 (6.40): 1 (Medalla De Oro) & 3 (Fanfair)

Leg 4 (7.10): 8 (Seniority), 5 (Don’t Give Up) & 4 (Chiefofchiefs)

Leg 5 (7.40): 4 (Codicil), 3 (Noble Manners) & 2 (Barbarianatthegate)

Leg 6 (8.10): 7 (Golden Easter) & 3 (Harlequin Storm)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.40: FLOWING CLARETS should be difficult to kick out of the frame at the frame at the very least here though from a win perspective, her actual odds could be classed as nearer 5/1 if we take her 4/24 stats into account.  That said, we have to the opposition into account whereby I could happily get involved at 4/1 (maybe!).  CAPTAIN RYAN and ROYAL NORMANDY are offered up as alternative each way options.  Outsiders from the Tony Carroll yard invariably attract my attention in this type of ‘ordinary’ race whereby the chance of KATH’S BOY is respected, though the 20/1 odds in the trade press look fanciful.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Flowing Clarets (soft)

 

6.10: Ojala has attracted some win and place money overnight though as far as possible winners are concerned, LANSKY and JUPITER are more logical calls.  As far as logic is concerned however, ‘newcomers’ like LANSKY are ‘speculative’ to a fashion, though you catch my drift.  Henry Candy did yours truly a favour yesterday by snaring a 6/1 double via just the two runners on the day whereby JUPITER is the marginal call this time around given his experience as much as anything else.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Windsor programme.

 

6.40: Although FANFAIR was a slightly disappointing favourite last time out, it’s worth recalling that his previous two victories were gained under different ground conditions which makes it impossible to entirely rule Richard Hannon’s raider out if the mix.  Becuna could be one of the better speculative options if you feel that a bookmaker’s result is on the cards, though Peter Chapple-Hyam’s recent course winner MEDALLA DE ORO showed much improved form have undergone a gelding operation.  I’m not talking after the event because I offered the Teofilo representative a decent chance seven days ago.

Favourite factor: I can’t quite believe that this is another new contest on the Windsor card though seemingly, it is.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/1—Medalla De Oro (good to soft)

 

7.10: Four of the five three-year-olds thus far have finished in the money, statistics which include a 4/1 winner. This year's two relevant declarations look well worth a Placepot interest, namely DON’T GIVE UP and SENIORITY who are difficult to split from my viewpoint.  Saeed Bin Suroor is enduring a difficult season by his high standards even though three of his last eleven runners have scored.  The opposite is true of William Haggas of course, whereby SENIORITY is the marginal call, albeit mainly from a value for money perspective.  If you can obtain the 11/1 offer by BetBright this morning, I’ve a notion you will ‘beat the book’, especially as Seniority is the only runner emerging from the Haggas stable today. If the junior runners are to be denied, the most likely joker in the pack will probably prove to be CHIEFOFCHIEFS whose trainer Charlie Fellowes has secured two victories via his last five representatives.  IF you have some cash to spare after the previous events today, a saver on MISTER CHOW might not go unrewarded given the form of the Gary Moore horses of late.  Purely speculative I assure you but at 7/1 (Bet365 & Skybet at the time of writing), there are worse ‘throwaway’ odds on offer today.

Favourite factor: Four favourites to date have just one silver medal (and a solitary Placepot position) to show for their endeavours.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

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1/1--Toulson (good to soft)

1/1—Celebration Day (good to firm)

1/2—Chief Of Chiefs (good)

 

7.40: The 9/4 quote in the trade press about CODICIL will not be obtainable according to the gospel of yours truly, with Sir Mark Prescott’s Lawman filly probably set to be returned at around the 13/8 mark.  If that does not sound like a great deal of difference, it’s worth pointing out that the differential is roughly the same as a horse being back into 5/1 from 9/1. BARBARIANATTHEGATE was not available at double figure prices for long overnight before being trimmed into 9/1 almost across the board. NOBLE MANNERS fought on well to score narrowly at Newmarket after a typically ‘gutsy’ performance from a Mark Johnston representative.  It’s worth noting that the front pair finished five lengths clear of the third horse that day under yielding conditions.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two (8/11 & 11/10) winners.  That said, the bad news is that Permian won this event twelve months ago, with Mark Johnston’s fine thoroughbred having suffered a fatal injury at the weekend.  Commiserations are offered to all the connections this morning.

 

8.10: Three-year-olds tend to get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage maiden events and so it has proved in this contest as all four winners have hailed from the junior ranks.  Ex Kevin Ryan inmate GOLDEN EASTER ran well enough to reward connection with place money on her first outing for Robert Cowell at Brighton recently (despite being a beaten odds on favourite) and a repeat of that effort would probably be good enough to snare the spoils in this grade/company.  HARLEQUIN STORM is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The Placepot ratio of 3/3 is in place via four renewals, given that one of the favourites was withdrawn before a new market could be formed

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—David Evans (4/49 – loss of 26 points)

3—John Bridger (1/18 – loss of 9 points)

3—Richard Hannon (10/42 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Michael Bell (2/12 – Slight profit)

2—Robert Cowell (2/3 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Charlie Hills (3/20 – loss of 2 points)

2—Brian Meehan (2/10 – slight loss)

2—Joseph Tuite (1/10 – loss of 2 points)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: 119.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Ripon: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Wolverhampton: £79.70 – 6 favouriters – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 13th August

LEICESTER - AUGUST 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £32.70 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Lightoller), 4 (Who Told Jo Jo) & 2 (Peachey Carnehan)

Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Perfect In Pink), 1 (Vuela) & 2 (Notice)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (African Blessing) & 2 (Red Trooper)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Dark Power) & 7 (Gaval)

Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Dark Spec), 1 (Algam) & 4 (Cuban Heel)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Keepup Kevin), 3 (Aletaratalyoum) & 1 (Vibes)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: The seven winners have been returned at 25/1-20/1-15/2-5/1-9/2-9/2-13/8, whereby you might care to take a longer look at the race than you might have planned.  Five of the seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 which goes against the two bottom weighed horses on this occasion.  Percentage stats rule the waves here me thinks, with Silvestre De Sousa boasting a 32% ratio of winners during the last fortnight, whilst he rules the roost for Mick Channon via a 25% strike rate for the trainer via 11 winners this term.  The pair team up with LIGHTOLLER who has been backed overnight which does not come as a surprise in this grade/company.  12/1 looks a tad too big about WHO TOLD JO JO who has won with moisture in the ground in the past, whilst the reverse is true of the odds on quote for PEACHEY CARNEHAN.  I don’t doubt that Michael Mullineaux’s Cheshire based raider deserves favourite status here (trainer has won with two of his last eight runners), though 4/5 in places suggests that there is better value to be found.

Favourite factor:  Five of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one 13/8 winner.

 

2.40: I’m not quite sure how the layers rate good to soft winner PERFECT IN PINK as the ‘rag’ in the field, especially with Mick Channon being back to winning ways during the last few weeks.  Win, lose or placed here, 8/1 looks a very reasonable price about another Channon/De Sousa raider on the card.  There had to be a time in the season when the Luca Cumani troops started to rally and with two of Luca’s last three runners having won, now might be the right time to have faith in his representatives, one of which is VUELA, though a best price of 7/4 this morning hardly has yours truly champing at the bit to ‘get on’.  Dave Simcock’s 50/1 Glorious Goodwood similarly sparked his team into better form whereby NOTICE also enters the mix with a half decent five pound claimer in the saddle.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race on the Leicester card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Perfect In Pink (good to soft)

 

3.10: Four-year-olds lead their juniors 12-5 from a win perspective in a race confined to the two vintages.  Toteplacepot stats: Three-years-olds 17/102 (16.7%) - Four-year-olds 31/99 (31.3%) via 17 renewals to date. I correctly went against the trend last year by naming the 5/2 winning three-year-old, though I expect the race to revert to type here with the two four-year-olds holding decent chances this this time around, namely RED TROOPER and AFRICAN BLESSING.  As long as the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact, this pair will surely get us through to the second half of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have prevailed, whilst 19 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, though it should be noted that horses have been beaten (from a win perspective) at odds of 1/2 and 4/6 during the study period.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Major Cornwallis (good)

1/1—Luduamf (soft)

 

3.45: Horses carrying a minimum weight of 8-13 have secured 14 of the 17 available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include six of the seven winners at 12/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-9/2-5/2**.  Two horses are eliminated via the weight stats on this occasion or at least they should, as GAVAL otherwise holds decent course claims at the very least, given his perfect 2/2 record at Leicester, stats which include a soft ground victory.  I will quietly include David Barron’s raider, especially as the trainer has won with three of his last nine runners.  It would also be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of DARK POWER at the top of the handicap after excellent efforts when the word soft has featured in the going description.  After just four races to date, Clive Cox’s Dark Angel can hardly be described as being exposed.

Favourite factor: The ten market leaders to date (via seven renewals) have produced just one gold medal, four of the silver variety and two bronze between them thus far, without claiming Placepot positions all of the time.

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Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

2/2--Gaval (good & soft)

 

4.20: Pam Sly is one of the few trainers when instantly attracts the eye when would be ‘no hopers’ are included on a race card.  Ever since Pam won the 1000 Guineas with Speciosa eleven years ago, I have learned to respect her outsiders and DARK SPEC catches the eye here in a race which might not prove difficult to win.  I offered similar thoughts the other night before 33/1 Vintager scored for David Menuisier and at 20/1, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Pam’s Dark Angel colt who met with traffic problems on his first day at school at Yarmouth recently.  The 33/1 quote in the trade press could be difficult to actually obtain if you fancy a saver on Pam’s raider, especially as Dark Spec is as short as 14/1 in places at the time of writing.  That said, I don’t deny that more logical winners in the field include ALGAM and CUBAN HEEL, though both runners have had two chances to score thus far whereby their cramped odds (by comparison) fails to light the blue ‘touch paper’ on either count.

Favourite factor:  This is another new event on the Leicester programme.

 

4.50: Pam Sly is the first name mentioned in dispatches here again, especially as there has been overnight support for soft ground winner KEEPUP KEVIN who might complete a headline busting double for the stable, even though a decent placed twosome would be acceptable at the odds on offer.  Ed Dunlop has been gaining some compensation since losing a Glorious Goodwood race in the Stewards’ room the thick end of a fortnight ago, whereby the chance of ALEMARATALYOUM is respected alongside VIBES whose trainer Jamie Osborne is suffering from an 11% strike rate this season.  That said, Jamie saddled a winner at Ascot yesterday suggesting that all is not lost this term.

Favourite factor:  One of the two inaugural 5/2 joint favourites secured a Placepot position without winning the event twelve months ago.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Richard Hannon (3/28 – loss of 8 points)

3—Michael Mullineaux (1/9 – Profit of 8 points)

2—David Barron (4/9 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Karl Burke (0/11)

2—Mick Channon (5/14 – Profit of 26 points)

2—Clive Cox (1/11 – loss of 2 points)

2—Richard Fahey (4/28 – loss of 2 points)

2—Steph Hollinshead (0/5)

2—Mick Quinn (0/4)

2—Derek Shaw (0/7)

2—David Simcock (0/2)

2—Pam Sly (loss of 1 point)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Windsor: £41.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th August

WINDSOR - AUGUST 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £226.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.10): 9 (Bihindi) & 1 (Arden Pearl)

Leg 2 (5.45): 3 (Funky Footsteps), 4 (Raj Balaraaj) & 1 (Choral Clan)

Leg 3 (6.15): 6 (Sir Plato) & 4 (Prost)

Leg 4 (6.45): 5 (Handytalk), 4 (Ice Age) & 7 (Major Pusey)

Leg 5 (7.15): 6 (Sea Tide) & 11 (Superioritycomplex)

Leg 6 (7.45): 7 (St Andrews), 3 (Medalla De Oro) & 6 (Tynecastle Park)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.10: I’m often telling you to be wary of what you read and/or hear and this opening event is a case in point.  The trade press have this down as a new race.  It is not a new race and that has nothing to do with the ‘novice scenario’ which I have referred to many times.  High in numbers but low on potential winners, this race will not require a great deal of winning.  ARDEN PEARL and (particularly) BIHINDI should get us safely through the opening leg, though I would not entertain the race aside from our favourite wager.  Money for Rupert’s Lass would add interest to proceedings, though there was none in evidence at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Two of the last five favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (11/10) winner.  Last year’s 33/1 winner was accompanied by a 25/1 placed horse; mind how you tread!

 

5.45: For all that it is difficult to know why there has been overnight support for CHORAL CLAN, I feel duty bound to report the move whereby it looks as though you can ignore the 16/1 trade press quote about Brendan Powell’s top weight.  Perhaps potential investors have lost confidence in the other entries (it would not be difficult) and though there was some each way value to be obtained about Brendan’s Oratorio gelding, FUNKY FOOTSTEPS and RAJ BALARAAJ should provide the winner between them.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite finished nearer last than first in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

6.15: Spare a though for the horse box drivers now and then, particularly those associated with Rod Millman’s yard down in Devon, who often have long journeys to make with few local course around from a flat venue perspective.  Rod’s yard is not far from Tiverton and any NH runners in his yard could ply their trade locally at several tracks, which is not the case on the level.  Three-year-old SIR PLATO represents Rod here, one of two runners on the card for the trainer whereby at least the two thoroughbreds can have some ‘horsy chat’ en route.  Three-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, despite the fact that vintage were not represented five years ago. PROST is the other junior declaration this evening in a ‘short field’ event.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 23 favourites have reached the frame.

Record of course winners in the third event on the card:

3/3—Sir Plato (good to firm – good – good to soft)

 

6.45: Four-year-olds have won the last four renewals, with Rod Millman’s other runner on the card (HANDYTALK) being one of four vintage representatives this time around.  HANDYTALK is assured his position in my Placepot mix alongside Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider ICE AGE, who represents the trainer who secured a massive 645/1 double on the corresponding card last year.  You can forget the 9/1 trade press quote about Ice Age who is likelier to off at around 5/1.  John Gallagher secured a Goodwood contest last week with Quench Dolly and his raider MAJOR PUSEY completes my trio against the other seven contenders in this event.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame to date (three winners), with other gold medallists recorded have been recorded at 25/1-25/1-20/1-18/1-16/1-8/1-7/1-13/2-3/1.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Little Palaver (good to firm)

1/5—Ice Age (good to firm)

1/5—Handytalk (good)

1/6—Clear Spring (good)

1/3—Major Pusey (good to soft)

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1/2—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

1/3—King Of Spain (good)

 

7.15: SEA TIDE has been the subject of overnight support and it is not difficult to see why Hugo Palmer’s Champs Elesees filly has attracted money after a fine seasonal debut at Nottingham.  I guess that SUPERIORITYCOMPLEX is the logical danger, though there will be worse outsiders on the card than STRUCK BY THE MOON I’ll wager.  Charlie Hills (saddled three consecutive winners towards the back end of last week) was obviously sweet on his Fastnet Rock filly last year as market support came in for the 4/1 chance on her only start to date.

Favourite factor: I’m not sure why the trade press has the two races which are confined to fillies described as new races on the card; because they are not new events.  For the record, market leaders have secured three of the last five renewals.

 

7.45: There has been some money for Tynecastle Park, though more logical winners in the contest include ST ANDREWS and MEDALLA DE ORO from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Richard Hughes (4/34 – loss of 8 points)

2—George Baker (0/5)

2—Michael Bell (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

2—John Bridger (1/16 – loss of 78 points)

2—Clive Cox (6/19 – Profit of 20 points)

2—David Evans (4/48 – loss of 8 points)

2—Peter Hedger (1/3 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Rod Millman (4/19 – slight loss)

2—William Muir (1/19 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ian Williams (1/4 – Profit of 6 points)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £300.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Salisbury: £48.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £229.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 31st July

WINDSOR - JULY 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £27.70 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 6 (Fortitude), 1 (Mr Pocket) & 7 (Pour La Victoire)

Leg 2 (6.05): 2 (Dream Prospect) & 3 (Global Academy)

Leg 3 (6.40): 1 (Fast And Hot), 4 (Glorious Forever) & 2 (Western Duke)

Leg 4 (7.15): 3 (Al Barg) & 1 (Tip Two Win)

Leg 5 (7.50): 9 (Moojaned), 6 (Boychick) & 5 (Cordite)

Leg 6 (8.20): 3 (Fastar), 2 (Lyric Fantasy & 4 (Know Your Limit)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.35: Hugo Palmer cannot do a lot wrong at present and the trainer appears to have found a decent opportunity for FORTITUDE to gain her second win, especially as her previous success came under soft conditions at Doncaster.  The 3/1 forecast SP in the trade press looks fanciful at the time of writing with a whole point likely to be chopped off that quote by the time that flag fall arrives.  MR POCKET is only a pound above his mark when beaten by narrow margins in two of his last three starts, having finished second in one of the two juvenile contests on the corresponding card twelve months ago. The pick of the outsiders could prove to be POUR LA VICTOIRE who has not encountered ground this soft before but ran well enough under yielding conditions at Brighton nearly a year ago.  Tony Carroll’s raider runs off a three pound lower mark than when recording back to back victories last summer.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card with which to start proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/3—Indian Affair (good to firm)

 

6.05: Roger Charlton has enjoyed a fine spell during what now appears to pass as ‘summer’, the trainer having saddled 17 winners (21% strike rate) during June/July as we close out this appalling month in terms of the weather.  Roger saddles his Invincible Spirit colt DREAM PROSPECT though if the March foal is to live up to his name, nothing less than a victory in this grade/company will suffice.  It’s said that Gay Kelleway has a better crop of juveniles this year than she has enjoyed for many a season whereby GLOBAL ACADEMY is rated at the main danger to the selection.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/11 favourite was turned over in a four runner 'win only' contest before a 3/10 market leader made amends twelve months on.  Last year’s 2/1 joint favourites snared the two available Placepot positions when finishing well clear of their rivals in a short field event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

6.40: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last fifteen renewals which makes for something of a change in this type of event (three-year-olds usually have the edge) and the trend might be extended by FAST AND HOT.  Three-year-old's that will push the tentative selection all the way to the line are fellow good to soft course winner GLORIOUS FOREVER and (possibly) X RATED.  This is Mark Johnston’s time of year, though he will be hoping that softer conditions might bring about a return to form for X RATED who disappointed big time at Hamilton the last day under a six pound penalty for a fast ground success previously gained at Bath.  WESTERN DUKE cannot be left out of the Placepot mix either as dawn breaks over Bristol.

Favourite factor:  Five favourites have won during the last eighteen years which is not a bad return in this type of event, though just four of the other fifteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the third race:

2/4—Fast And Hot (good & good to soft)

1/1—Glorious Forever (good to soft)

 

7.15: 'Team Hannon' had saddled three of the last nine winners of this event (before the ‘prefix’ change – see below for details), having also landed the forecast eight years ago with 2/1 and 28/1 raiders for good measure.  Haydock runner up AL BARG has been given the green light on this occasion and there is every chance that Richard's Acclamation colt will improve the recent ratio, though connections of TIP TWO WIN might have a word or two to say about that comment.  There was plenty to like about the way that Roger Teal’s debutant won here a few weeks ago, though Roger was on the crest of a wave at the time, whilst conditions were a great deal faster then to what will be in place this evening.  The yard remains in good form however (two of Roger’s last three runners have finished second) whereby a victory for the penalised Dark Angel colt would come as a complete surprise, especially as the sire’s stock generally handle soft ground better than most (15% strike rate).

Favourite factor: This is now classed as a new race via the BHA rulings regarding novice events which was brought into play the thick end of eighteen months ago.  I will leave the previous results in (for the last time) for your perusal (same distance event for two-year-olds), though whether you take any notice of them because of the new ruling is your decision to make.  Five of the eighteen previous favourites had prevailed, whilst twelve market leaders had claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Tip Two Win (good to firm)

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7.50: All four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3, as have six of the nine horses to have claimed the available Placepot positions thus far.  Those stats go against the chance of MOOJANED, though proven soft ground course winners are few and far between on the card, whilst each way support has (seemingly) been gaining momentum overnight.  That said, the Placepot chance for BOYCHICK is there for all to see, though whether I would want to take the 2/1 quote about Jamie Spencer’s mount actually winning the contest is open to date.  CORDITE has only won the one race from 30 assignments, though the success was gained under soft conditions and in a race which might not prove difficult to win, Jim Boyle’s Footstepsinthesand gelding has been placed in two of his last four starts at the track at 20/1 & 16/1.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have obliged via four renewals to date, though search parties are still out looking for other three unplaced market leaders.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Heezararity (soft)

1/2—Della Salle (soft)

2/9—Moojaned (good to firm & soft)

 

8.20: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-3 have secured seven of the ten Placepot positions to date, statistics which include all four (3/1-3/1-9/4*-9/4**) winners. The weight stats eliminate the one remaining horses down at the bottom of the handicap (the other was quickly withdrawn) and the pick of the relevant quartet appears to be FASTAR, KNOW YOUR LIMIT and LYRIC FANTASY.  The latter named Giles Bravery raider is the only horse to have won with the word soft featuring in the relevant going description and given the 8/1 quote in a place this morning, there will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the card I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 9/4.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued – then winning starting prices at last year’s corresponding card if/where applicable:

4 runners—Richard Hannon (9/38 – Profit of 11 points)

3—Ed Walker (4/19 – Slight profit)

2—Roger Charlton (3/9 – Profit of 12 points + winner last year at 7/2)

2—David Evans (4/46 – loss of 23 points)

2—Nikki Evans (0/1)

2—Mike Murphy (0/8)

2—Hugo Palmer (2/10 – Profit of 12 points + winner last year at 2/1)

Trainer who has one runner this year who saddled a winner 12 months ago:

Ralph Beckett (2/15 – loss of eight points + winner last year at 9/4**)

+ 23 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

41 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £157.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £50.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £188.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

*Footnote to Wolverhampton if you like backing rank outsiders on the tote for potential freak dividends – A 200/1 winner was returned at the corresponding meeting last year, though base went over apex on the tote which paid just 50/1….ouch!

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday July 24

BEVERLEY – JULY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £153.60 (8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 2 (Piedita), 1 (Laureate) & 9 (Nothing Compares)

Leg 2 (6.25): 1 (Special Purpose) & 9 (Me Before You)

Leg 3 (6.55): 11 (Maureb), 13 (Thatcherite) & 7 (The Nazca Lines)

Leg 4 (7.25): 4 (Katebird), 8 (Greenview Paradise) & 9 (Snookered)

Leg 5 (7.55): 3 (Muirsheen Durkin) & 9 (Navarone)

Leg 6 (8.25): 7 (Justice Pleasing), 3 (Old China) & 12 (Pepys)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Five year study of the corresponding meeting:

30 races – 12 winning favourites – 27/32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £109.56

Highest dividend: £153.60 (last year) – Lowest dividend: £76.00 (2013)

Best trainers:

4 winners—Tim Easterby (9/2, 10/3, 11/4* & 4/6*)

4 runners on the card – 7/37 this season – Level stake loss of 5 points

3 winners—Ollie Pears (20/1, 5/2 & 6/4*) 5 runners

2 runners on the card – 4/19 this season – Level stake profit of 39 points

3 winners—Mark Johnston (10/1, 7/4* & 11/10*) – 2 runners

5 runners on the card – 7/37 this season – Level stake profit of 6 points

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.55: It’s not often that a meeting opens with a two mile contest on the level but that’s what we are faced with here.  High on numbers but probably short on potential winners, it’s worth noting that seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, a trend that could (perhaps) should be continued with PIEDITA and Mark Johnston’s pair LAUREATE and NOTHING COMPARES having been declared.

Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  Half of the favourites (6/12) have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

6.25: It’s important to stress that the Lingfield win gained by newcomer SPECIAL PURPOSE was gained on turf when the William Haggas raider bolted up on good ground.  Punters often make the wrong assumption (either way) regarding turf and all weather surfaces and it is useful just to take a few moments to establish what conditions horses ran under when scoring at the track.  Well enough drawn here (4/12), Oisin Murphy’s mount should make short work of the opposition even taking the penalty into account, especially as Scat Daddy stock can be really decent types having showed such early talent.  David O’Meara has wasted no time in dropping ME BEFORE YOU down a furlong which should ensure that the silver medal is his for the taking following an encouraging run at Ripon on her first day at school.  Me Before You is a clever name for a filly if taking old fashioned standards into account!

Favourite factor: This is a new race on The Beverley card with the BHA having introduced their ‘novice system’ around 18 months ago.

 

6.55: John Quinn’s last two runners on Saturday won their respective races at 25/1 & 5/1 and THE NAZCA LINES would have been his first subsequent runner but for an Ayr entry earlier in the day.  That said, if support comes in for the recent Carlisle winner making Jason Hart’s mount the clear favourite, ‘stat types’ like yours truly might not want to watch the closing stages if the record of market leaders in this race is taken into account (see details below).  8/15 is hardly a perfect draw either as this is a horse that generally comes from off the pace.  That said, a three pound hike for the Carlisle win can offer connections confidence and a Placepot position is certainly within reach at least.  Others for the melting pot include Tony Coyle’s pair MAUREB (third in this event twelve months ago) and THATCHERITE who is well boxed in trap three.  The chance for MAUREB is there for all to see, running off a six pound lower mark having been beaten by only a length last year.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last nine renewals has been claimed by a favourite during which time, two 20/1 gold medallists have reared their ugly heads.  Indeed, the winner three years ago is the only market leader to have finished in the frame (exact science) in the afore-mentioned nine year period!

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/1—Musharrif (good to firm)

1/3—First Bombardment (good)

1/13—Bronze Beau (good to firm)

1/4—Jack Luey (soft)

1/1—Astrophysics (good to firm)

2/13—Thatcherite (2 x good)

1/3—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

 

7.25: Three-year-olds have claimed five of the nine contests to date and Mark Johnston is typically wise to the facts and stats having declared vintage representative KATEBIRD.  Mark has saddled the winner of two of the last five renewals when represented and his Dark Angel filly is the first name on my team sheet.  It’s also difficult for me to ignore Richard Fahey’s pair of three-year-olds down at the foot of the handicap, namely GREENVIEW PARADISE and SNOOKERED.

Favourite factor: Three of the last six contests have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/2.  Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Katebird (good)

1/4—Lopito De Vega (good)

1/3—Bromance (good to firm)

 

7.55: Plenty of rain is forecast for the Beverley area overnight and some way into the morning which could aid and abet the chance of soft ground course winner NAVARONE.  The money overnight however was for MUIRSHEEN DURKIN which could prove significant, whilst there was also each way support for CHAPLIN BAY who could reward win and place investors at around the 9/1 mark.  The 14/1 trade press quote about Ruth Carr’s five-year-old raider appears fanciful at the time of writing.

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Favourite factor: One of the three 4/1 co favourite duly obliged last year, though the other two market leaders finished out of the money in ‘short field’ event.  New readers light like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

2/5—Sovereign Bounty (good & good to firm)

2/3—Muirsheen Durkin (good to firm & good to soft)

5/16—Talent Scount (5 x good to firm)

1/1—Navarone (soft)

 

8.25: I suppose the obvious bet ion this handicap event would be to look for odds on at least on non-runner being announced before flag fall, though I’ll wager the quote would be skinny in the extreme with 16 entries still ‘intact’ at the time of writing!  Upwards and onward be declaring that my trio against the field consists of JUSTICE PLEASING (drawn well enough; 5/16), OLD CHINA (has run well on soft before should moisture get into the ground) and beaten favourite PEPYS, albeit Bryan Smart’s representative enters my ‘last chance saloon’ tonight.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Lawrence Mullaney trained) 4/1 favourite finished well in arrears, the frame being filled by horses returned at 7/1, 7/1 & 20/1.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—So It’s War (good to firm)

4/28—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)

2/3—Arcane Dancer (2 x good to firm)

3/20—I’m Super Too (3 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (11/46 – Profit of 3 points)

5—Mark Johnston (7/37 – Profit of 6 points)

4—Michael Appleby (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

4—Tim Easterby (3/45 – loss of 5 points)

4—David O’Meara (3/44 – Loss of 25 points)

3—Anthony Brittain (2/9 – Profit of 10 points)

3—Declan Carroll (2/12 – loss of 2 points)

3—Tony Coyle (1/11 – loss of 5 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/20 – loss of 4 points)

3—Bryan Smart (1/15 – loss of 10 points)

3—Karen Tutty (3/14 – Profit of 26 points)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (1/8 – Loss of 2 points)

2—Neville Bycroft (0/1)

2—Ruth Carr (1/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/7)

2—Roger Fell (1/15 – loss of 12 points)

2—Marjorie Fife (0/3)

2—James Given (0/7)

2—David C Griffiths (0/8)

2—Patrick Holmes (0/5)

2—Lawrence Mullaney (0/8)

2—Jedd O’Keeffe (0/2)

2—Ollie Pears (4/19 – Profit of 39 points)

2—John Quinn (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

2—Mark Walford (2/6 – Profit of 4 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

93 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £66.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Windsor: £20.90 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Cartmel: £18.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday July 17

WINDSOR - JULY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £82.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Russian Regard), 14 (Epsom Secret), 3 (Secret Soul) & 15 (Neptune Star)

Leg 2 (6.20): 1 (Airshow), 6 (Awesometank) & 3 (Expecting)

Leg 3 (6.50): 7 (Zyzzyva) & 2 (Expelled)

Leg 4 (7.20): 7 (Super Julius) & 4 (Dark Shot)

Leg 5 (7.50): 2 (Blushing Rose) & 4 (Canberra Cliffs)

Leg 6 (8.20): 3 (Hollywood Road), 2 (Celebration Day) & 8 (Ogbourne Downs)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.50: Whilst stall ten (of fifteen in total) is not an ideal draw at Windsor on fast ground, this is not a sprint race whereby Jonathan Portman’s Intense Focus gelding RUSSIAN REGARD is offered up as a sporting option with a seven pound claimer in the plate who has already ridden three winners for the relevant trainer.  Most firms (except PP) have swerved too much of an each way liability about EPSOM SECRET (11/2 thereabouts), whilst SECRET SOUL will be a popular raider from Ralph Becket’s yard with the trainer turning out quite a few winners of late.  Mick Easterby sneaks one in at the bottom of the weights, whereby it would come as no surprise to witness his three-year-old raider NEPTUNE STAR figuring prominently at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/9—Megalala (soft)

 

6.20: Each way money has been coming in for AIRSHOW with none of the leading bookmakers willing to offer a fraction over the 5/1 (bet to nothing) win and place option for Rod Millman’s representative.  Rod’s Showcasing gelding is looking to go one better for connections after two recent silver medals efforts, with AWESOMETANK and EXPECTING fairly obvious dangers representing the powerful years of William Haggas and Charlie Hills respectively.  Trap one gives Adam Kirby the chance to kick from the gate aboard AIRSHOW and if the two main rivals offer too much of an easy lead out front, AIRSHOW could score without seeing another rival.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals during which time, six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

6.50: Was it the seven pound penalty that stopped RUNNING CLOUD in his tracks last week when tackling his first turf assignment, or perhaps the easy ground at Salisbury that brought about his downfall?  Either way, the concession of seven pounds to ZYZZYVA (trap one) could prove too much of an ask, whilst EXPELLED is another newcomer to take seriously, especially as at the time of writing, James Fanshawe’s Exceed And Excel colt was not drifting in the market, which can be the case the yard’s unraced juveniles.  Stall two gives Daniel Muscutt’s mount a chance if good enough at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders (5/2-8/11-4/9) have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

 

7.20: I would not take 6/4 about DARK SHOT on ground which will be plenty fast enough for Andrew Balding consistent raider though that said, it’s impossible to leave the four-year-old out of the Placepot mix.  Eve Johnson Houghton’s progressive junior raider SUPER JULIUS is feared most with a three pound rise for a recent Brighton win hardly disturbing the sleep patterns of connections.  The only scenario which could stop such people from sleeping well tonight could be attributed to continued celebrations as the Bated Breath raider seeks a hat trick on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This Class 3 sprint series event is another new race on the Windsor programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Spring Loaded (good)

1/1—Stepper Point (good to firm)

1/4—Dark Shot (soft)

1/4—Musical Comedy (good to soft)

 

7.50:  Three-year-olds have claimed fourteen victories during the last nineteen years, albeit three of those vintage representatives were involved in two dead heat scenarios during the study period.  Seven junior representatives are involved on this occasion, with BLUSHING ROSE and CANBERRA CLIFFS standing out from the crowd at first light this morning.  It’s about time (in all honesty) that Sir Michael Stoute’s raiders starting showing consistent form and with a 35/1 double under his belt from Saturday, Michael (BLUSHING ROSE) aims at building on five winners during the last eight days.  Lesser trainers would be happy with that type of ratio, though Michael has set standards in the past that few could match and plenty of gold medallists before Glorious Goodwood would be welcomed a few weeks before we all head south for five wonderful days of sport.

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Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won, whilst 13 of the 23 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—High On Love (good to firm)

1/1—Sayem (good to soft)

 

8.20: CELEBRATION DAY and OGBOURNE DOWNS are two each way options to consider against HOLLYWOOD ROAD in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Don Cantillon (HOLLYWOOD ROAD) boasts definite claims of a double in the final two contests, having saddled Canberra Cliffs in the penultimate race on the card.  Don’s only Windsor runner at Windsor this season won at 9/2 and sure enough, ‘HR’ was the horse in question when scoring under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourites favourite found one too good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Hollywood Road (good to firm)

2/6—Ogbourne Downs (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/18 – loss of 10 points)

3—Andrew Balding (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—Charlie Hills (2/16 – loss of 6 points)

2—Don Cantillon (1/1 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Robert Eddery (0/6)

2—Ron Harris (1/7 – Profit of 19 points)

2—Richard Hughes (3/28 – loss of 8 points)

2—Dean Ivory (1/23 – loss of 12 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/2)

2—Brendan Powell (1/13 – level profit/loss on the season)

2—William Muir (1/14 – loss of 8 points)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £804.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Ffos Las: This is a new meeting

Wolverhampton: £25.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday July 10

WINDSOR - JULY 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £33.50 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.05): 11 (Sir Geoffrey), 1 (Cat Silver) & 3 (Etienne Gerard)

Leg 2 (6.35): 8 (Well Suited), 1 (Bezos) & 10 (Yorbelucky)

Leg 3 (7.05): 7 (See The Sea), 8 (Log Off) & 4 (Kiruna Park)

Leg 4 (7.35): 3 (Sir Titan)

Leg 5 (8.05): 10 (Marie Josephe), 11 (Golden Nectar) & 4 (Gambit)

Leg 6 (8.35): 4 (Big Tour) & 5 (Hyperloop)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.05: Eight of the nine winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more to date, with three of the fourteen runners omitted accordingly. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that four-year-olds are even money to record their seventh win in the contest in this tenth renewal.  Pick of the bunch this time around should prove to be CAT SILVER (drawn 8/14) and SIR GEOFFREY (3).  ETIENNE GERARD defends his crown on almost exactly the same terms as last year given the claiming pilot who has been booked to ride, whilst trap one should confirm a prominent effort unless heavier rain than anticipated arrives at Windsor on Monday afternoon.

Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites (stats include two winners at 7/2 & 3/1) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 10/1 two years ago.

Record of course winners in the opening event: 

1/2—Etienne Gerard (good to firm)

1/1—Frangarry (good to soft)

1/2—Sir Geoffrey (soft)

 

6.35: WELL SUITED would have been offered as quite a confident (if speculative) call, but for drawing stall 12 out in the widestbstall.  That said, the chance of Simon Crisford’s Dandy Man colt is still respected in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  BEZOS (better drawn in trap 4) is another newcomer to consider whilst arguably, YORBELUCKY is the value for money call via the experienced runners in the field.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card, courtesy of the change brought in by the BHA eighteen months ago relating to Novice events for juveniles.

 

7.05: John Egan remains one of the better light weight jockeys in the weighing room and 8-7 is not usually a problem for the experienced pilot who rides LOG OFF at the bottom of the list for David Evans on this occasion.  SEE THE SEA also makes some appeal in a weak race, with Mick Channon’s Newmarket winner KIRUNA PARK completing the overnight short list.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders to date have secured three gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst snaring toteplacepot positions.

 

7.35: Three-year-olds tend to run well against their elders in these mixed vintage handicap events as has been the case in this event, with the four relevant raiders being around the 11/8 mark to land this fifth renewal having won three of the previous four contests.  Three-year-old SIR TITAN posted a convincing win on his first race after a gelding operation at Wolverhampton and it would be disappointing in the extreme if the Marcus Tregoning raider failed to follow up that victory in this grade/company.  Marcus appears to have found a glorious chance for this handicap debutante.

Favourite factor: Three of four of the five favourites have secured two gold and one of the silver variety whilst claiming Placepot positions, though the other market leader could only finish fourth in a five horse race.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest: 

1/3—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

4/21—Shifting Star (2 x good to soft – Good – good to firm)

1/4—Fastnet Spin (soft)

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8.05: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals to date, the three-year-olds MARIE JOSEPHE and GOLDEN NECTAR joined by four-year-old GAMBIT to form my Placepot permutation in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.  Richard Kingscote (GAMBIT) will be riding with supreme confidence having ridden his first ever (1,088/1) four timer at Haydock on Friday.  That said, slight preference is given to the three-year-olds to land the race between them from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, statistics which include two (5/1** & 11/8) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race on the card:

2/10—Craftsmanship (good to firm & soft)

1/7—Essenaitch (good to soft)

1/2—Marie Josephe (good to firm)

 

8.35: Three horses seemingly stand out from the crowd as we try and land another Placepot dividend.  BIG TOUR and HYPERLOOP are readily preferred to Unit Of Assessment who should nonetheless finish in the money without too much fuss.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Windsor programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—David Evans (4/43 – loss of 20 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (1/11 – loss of 8 points)

2—John Bridger (1/12 – loss of 3 points)

2—Tony Carroll (0/11)

2—Robert Eddery (1/11 (loss of 8 points)

2—John Gosden (3/10 – Slight profit)

2—Richard Hannon (8/34 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Jo Hughes (No previous runners)

2—Richard Hughes (3/26 – loss of 6 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (2/6 – Profit of 5 points)

2—John Ryan (0/4)

2—Nigel Tinkler (No previous runners)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £14.50 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 2 unplaced

Ripon: £1,218.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Worcester: £1,135.20 – 8 favourites – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday July 3

WINDSOR – JULY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £310.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 6 (That’s My Girl), 5 (Misty Spirit) & 4 (Flying Sparkle)

Leg 2 (6.30): 1 (Nag’s Wag) & 3 (Morache Music)

Leg 3 (7.00): 4 (Castellated), 9 (Secret Soul) & 3 (Reckless Wave)

Leg 4 (7.30): 5 (Intrepidly), 7 (Anythingtoday) & 4 (Biotic)

Leg 5 (8.00): 5 (Asaas), 4 (Light Humor) & 2 (Unified)

Leg 6 (8.30): 12 (Razzmatazz), 11 (Omneeya) & 14 (Starsovertheriver)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.00: ‘Team Hannon’ have won the opening event six times in the last twelve years (alongside various silver and bronze medallists), though the trainer was not represented in the contest five years ago and again three years back.  Richard saddles his Mastercraftsman filly THAT’S MY GIRL who ran well enough at Chepstow at the first time of asking to suggest that a small race like this could be within range.  Not well drawn here however (12/15 – unless plenty of rain arrives), Richard’s February foal might have to come on quite a lot for her second run though that said, many Hannon inmates this term have achieved such improvement.  SMOOTH SAILING (14) is another who could done with a luckier draw, whilst FLYING SPARKLE (has fancy entries and has drawn trap 2) and MISTY SPIRIT (8) are others to consider.

Favourite factor:  Nine of the thirteen favourites have won to date, with three of the other market leaders finishing in the money.  The 4/6 market leader in 2014 could only finish third, albeit the effort was good enough to gain a Placepot position.

 

6.30:  Horses carrying weights of 8-10 or more to date have secured 21 of the 25 available toteplacepot positions (including nine of the ten gold medals), though I am only supplying that information on this occasion for your records, as all six runners ‘qualify’ this time around.  Four-year-olds have claimed four of the last nine contests, with NAG’S WAG being this year’s only vintage representative.  George Baker’s six time winner probably has MORACHE MUSIC to beat, though 22 assignments have passed since David’s Probert’s mount last won a race.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites (via ten renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include four (10/11—6/5--11/8--9/4**) winners.

Record of course winner in the second race:

1/7—Morache Music (soft)

 

7.00:  Three-year-olds have won nine of the last twelve renewals (vintage representatives are 4/5 to win before the form book is consulted on this occasion) and CASTELLATED and SECRET SOUL could offer half decent value in a race which should not take a great deal of winning.  If you fancy that the trend could be breached this year, RECKLESS WAVE could prove to be the potential spoiler in the field, especially with Ed Walker sending out a good few winners of late.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date via 17 renewals, statistics which include three winners.

 

7.30: The handicapper might have caught up with Rita’s Man now, whereby I’m inclined to short list three horses via in-form trainers, namely INTREPIDLY (Jeremy Noseda), ANYTHINGTODAY (Hugo Palmer) and Rod Millman’s course and distance winner BIOTIC.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in fourth contest on the card:

1/8—Biotic (good)

2/9—Craftsmanship (good to firm & soft)

 

8.00: Roger Varian has bounced back to form with a vengeance though to be entirely fair, Roger is rarely far away from the winners circle.  Only one runner has contested more races than ASAAS and the experience could hold Roger’s Distorted Humor colt in good stead in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  There are the usual Windsor debutants to consider from top yards, the pick of which might prove to be LIGHT HUMOR, another Distorted Humor raider in the field as you might have guessed.  UNIFIED is the other potential winner in the line up according to the gospel of yours truly.

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Favourite factor: 12 of the last 13 winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include three market leaders and one joint favourite.  Eleven of the last twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with the 2014 (Richard Hannon trained) 13/8 market leader having let the side down.

 

8.30: Three-year-olds invariably dominate mixed vintage maiden events, both in the number of entries and their 'blanketing' of the Placepot positions.  That has certainly been the case in the three contests to date and I expect the trend to be maintained by the likes of RAZZMATAZZ, OMNEEYA and STARSOVERTHERIVER.  Look out for any support in the market for Ismail Mohammed’s latter named Kodiac filly who wears the famous white and red colours of Saeed Manana whose fine horses in the past include Luso, Hattan and Warrsan, all of which were trained by the wonderful trainer Clive Brittain whose smile is still missed in and around the racecourse.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured Placerpot positions via three renewals, statistics which include on (6/4) winner.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Windsor card on Monday:

4 runners—Richard Hughes

3—Richard Hannon

3—Jeremy Noseda

3—Ed Walker

2—George Baker

2—Michael Bell

2—Tony Carroll

2—Patrick Chamings

2—Clive Cox

2—Scott Dixon

2—Robert Eddery

2—David Evans

2—Ron Harris

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—John Jenkins

2—Mike Murphy

2—Jonjo O’Neill

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hamilton: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Pontefract: £193.40 – 9 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £50.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced