Tag Archive for: Windsor racecourse

Monday Musings: Welcoming Back Windsor

Back in the 1970’s, one of the favourite trips for Home Counties racegoers was the New Year’s Day programme of jump racing at Windsor. The New Year’s Day Hurdle, a conditions race aimed at attracting potential Champion Hurdle winners, did so on its second running in 1975 with Comedy Of Errors, already winner of the 1973 edition at Cheltenham, soon to add a second a couple of months later.

The giant gelding, 17hh, won 23 of 48 career races, adding to his Cheltenham exploits for the great Fred Rimell, by taking both the Scottish and Welsh Champion Hurdles – in those days important weight-for-age races – as well as three consecutive Fighting Fifth Hurdles and a couple of Irish Sweeps Hurdles.

In his era, he supplanted Arkle as the horse that had won most National Hunt prizemoney in the UK and Ireland. He ended his days as Mercy Rimell’s (Fred’s widow) hack until his death aged 23 in 1990.

I was at Windsor for many of the New Year’s Day Hurdles and another notable winner was Royal Derbi in 1991. He was trained by the late Neville Callaghan and was an example of the difference in the racing structure in those days.

Originally trained by the highly talented David Wilson, the Scottish-born former Harrow schoolboy, who shares his alma mater like many other famous trainers, not least the two best-friend Williams, Haggas and Jarvis, and their Newmarket neighbour Sir Mark Prescott.

Wilson, who still advises the Gary/Josh Moore stable, waited until Royal Derbi’s first run in a handicap after three jogs round, to win a 17-runner three-year-old Windsor handicap by a couple of lengths with Brian Rouse in the saddle.

He was bought out of that seller by Callaghan and raced thereon for two seasons in the name of a Mr Lockhart. His first hurdles run – a successful one – came six weeks later, on August 12, when he won a match at Plumpton at 2/9, but only by a length.

Unlike now, when one NH season ends and the next begins 24 hours later at the end of April, the earliest start for jumping would be July 30 or 31, usually at Newton Abbot. So Neville was immediately on his bike with Royal Derbi who proved a very durable animal indeed.

Who would have imagined that by the middle of November, he had raced another eight times, all in novice hurdles, winning four of them? The last two of those victories were in a 25-runner field at Wetherby before beating 14 opponents at Chepstow. He wound up his year with a rare poor performance in Chepstow’s Finale Junior Hurdle, a big Triumph Hurdle guide then as now.

Early in 1989 he had another five hurdle races, winning three including a wide-margin defeat of subsequent Champion Hurdle runner-up Nomadic Way (Barry Hills). Only fourth in the Triumph Hurdle, he erased the memory of that with an easy victory in Punchestown’s Champion 4yo hurdle. Eight wins in 16 runs, all as a juvenile.

Nowadays a top candidate for the Triumph Hurdle will run twice or in rare circumstances four times, so sparse are the opportunities and so stringent the penalties for wins. Novices would have blanket penalties for multiple wins. Now seven previous victories could usually entail penalties of 42lb: they don’t like you winning races!

After that demanding campaign, Callaghan found a new owner, replacing Mr Lockhart, and Royal Derbi next appeared in the colours of the pre-Coolmore version of Michael Tabor. He was a great money-spinner for the owner and trainer, when his final career total for flat and jumps combined was 17 wins from 66 starts. His New Year’s Day Hurdle win was by six lengths from the smart Aldino in 1991.

While writing this piece I waited until I could watch the opening three races (two hurdles and one chase) on Windsor’s pioneering first jumps card back after a gap of 20 years. In truth, it was another six years longer, as it was only during the rebuilding of Ascot racecourse between 2004 and 2006 that Windsor was taken out of mothballs – the original closure coming in 1998.

I was wondering how the hurdles track would be different from the flat circuit where races longer than one mile imitate Fontwell’s chase course with a figure-of-eight. It looked at first sight yesterday that they are often travelling in a different direction to what they do on the level but that may be an optical illusion. I need to take a better look at the map. The bends looked sharp enough and like on the flat, they do turn left and right-handed at different stages.

[Editor’s note: here are the revised track configurations for hurdle and chase]

 

 

 

The ground at Windsor should be suitable for winter racing and yesterday’s surface of good to soft looked very appealing. The weather is undoubtedly warmer than was the case in the late 1990’s when frost caused the abandonment of three consecutive runnings of the New Year meeting.

Yesterday started with a couple of Henderson hotpots getting beaten early on, and favourite backers were not experiencing an initial punting panacea as another odds-on shot bit the dust later. Once it settles down, Windsor will be a good addition to the jumps fixture list, and I can’t wait to go. It might not be the same as midsummer Monday nights, but any racing is better than none to my mind.

Now all we need is for Jockey Club racecourses to free up Nottingham. The City Trial Hurdle in February fitted well in the Champion Hurdle build-up for suitable horses but Nottingham closed to jumping after 1994 and operates with two distinct tracks, one for spring and autumn – where the jumpers used to race - the other as their blurb goes, “for high summer”.

This year, Nottingham had the misfortune of losing four of its 23 planned fixtures, three of them on the inside course. Other tracks also suffered from the awful weather which came at the most inconvenient times for trainers. Despite this, I hope that if the Windsor project proves a success, then other flat-only tracks like Nottingham might reconsider.

It may be too much to ask Cheltenham, another Jockey Club course, to waive its New Year’s Day fixture, but after a New Year’s Eve skinful, Londoners would not need to get up quite so early to travel to the banks of the Thames rather than suffer the crowded M40 with hungover drivers as the trains are sure not to be running a proper service.  <I do realise other people live in different directions and distances from both tracks>.

****

I had a small theoretical bet when I met the Editor of this piece in the week and think I came out just on the wrong side. Matt Bisogno’s Geegeez syndicates have done amazingly well and last Sunday he travelled over to the Boulta point-to-point near Cork to watch Gee Force Flyer make his racecourse debut in the second division of the four-year-old maiden race.

Matt was offered the son of Jet Away by Olly Murphy whose plan was to send him across to Ireland to be broken and trained for exposure in what can be the goldmine offered to winners of Irish points. He didn’t have too much trouble syndicating him.

Ridden by John Barry, Gee Force Flyer mover up nicely in the last mile, disputed the lead over the last fence and drew away near the line for a two-length victory. We should be seeing him under the Murphy banner in the New Year. The bet arose as several of the principals from the Sunday card were in the Tattersalls Cheltenham auction after racing on Friday, but not Gee Force Flyer who is adamantly not for sale.

The runner-up was. I reckoned he would go for “at least 75k”, Matt was much more reticent, suggesting “around 25k”. On a day when the runner-up of the first division of the four-year-old maiden went for 160k, our boy was led out unsold at 48k. I make it a small win for Matt!

- TS

Tix Picks, Monday 16/09/24

Hope you all had a great weekend. I certainly enjoyed taking Sunday off, but we now go again, as Monday's placepots can be played via Tix at Kempton, Thirsk, Windsor & Worcester...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

From which, I've decided to tackle the first six races at Windsor, where the going is expected to be good to soft for these races...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

None of these won their last race, but Harrys Halo and Lahina Bay were both runners-up and the former has made the frame in four of his last six starts. The latter is a former course and distance winner, as are Punchbowl Flyer & Vape and it's Harrys Halo, Lahina Bay & Vape who score best on Instant Expert...

...whilst pace/draw...

...give Vape a huge chance here. My three horse shortlist here would then be (1) Harrys Halo, (6) Lahina Bay and (7) Vape. Lahina Bay looks worst off on pace and I don't want to take three runners here, so I'll leave her out. (5) Punchbowl Flyer is a danger too and might fit your perms if you're going deeper than I am!

Leg 2 : 2.07 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo Fillies Restricted Novice Stakes over 5f

The top four on the card are the ones with the experience and of the four (Amestris, Aviation Time, Seraphim Angel & OverSpiced), only Aviation Time is yet town over 5f, but she did finish third at both Class 2 and in a Listed race earlier this year and drops three classes here. Amestris actually drops four classes here after a three length defeat in a Listed race. Without diving too deeply into the race, I can see this contest quite possibly being a match between this pair and I’ll just a safety-first approach with (1) Amestris and (2) Aviation Time.

Leg 3 : 2.37 Windsor, a 14-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Novice Stakes over 1m

Thyer won last time out, but hasn’t raced since that win 54 weeks ago during which time he has moved yards. Noisy Jazz and Run Away both own on debut before finishing 6th next/last time out at higher grades than this.

None of the others have won a race, whilst Muhib and Tex are making debuts here. Breathless Spirit was a runner-up beaten by just half a length at Chelmsford and a similar run puts him in the mix here.

Stalls 5 to 8 seem to be the best place to run from here (Muhib, Breathless Spirit, Saved Lizzie, Tex)

...whilst Noisy Jazz has set the pace in each of her two starts to date and that could be fruitful here at Windsor...

So from all this, I prefer (4) Noisy Jazz of the three previous winners, as she is the only Class 4 winner in the field and she's likely to be upfront from an early point. Of those with experience, I'd take (9) Breathless Spirit based on his near miss at Chelmsford last month and the fact that he is drawn in that central 5-8 area and of those with little/no previous experience, (10) Muhib is an interesting sort. He's with one of the elite yards and they've bided their time with him, he's by Too Darn Hot out of Hameem, who won 4 of 13 herself and made the frame in 5 of her 9 defeats.

Leg 4 : 3.12 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m3½f

(2) Morcar was a winner here over 1m2f for a second win in four starts when last seen four weeks ago, but steps up in trip, is 7lbs higher today and would probably want quicker ground, but he remains of interest for a place. (1) Mighty Bandit and course winner (3) Fast Steps have both won relatively recently, whilst (5) The Whipmaster is a former course and distance winner, although that was 15 months ago and he’s 0 from 9 since and steps up in class here.

These four are likely to be racing front rank today, if their recent efforts are anything to go by…

…and I think that I'd be happy to stick with the top three on the card here.

Leg 5 : 3.42 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m2f

A tricky looking one to call here with form claims held by many. (1) Party Island has two wins two thirds from his last six, (2) Macari was a runner-up six days ago, course winner (6) New Kings Road has finished 123 in his last three, (10) Darysina Gold has finished 2212 in her last four and bottom weight (13) Idyllic is the only LTO winner in the field and has finished 2331 in her last four.

Idyllic is, however, up in class today, but both Party Island and New Kings Road drop down from Class 4, whilst from a status perspective, Macari’s claims are boosted by the fact that since 2009, trainer Sheena West is 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) with four further placers from runners in Windsor handicaps who are her only runner at the track that day.

Not usually my thing, but in such an open contest, I’m taking all five from the well!

Leg 6 : 4.12 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m

My initial thoughts here were that in card order, course and distance winner (2) Daisy Roots (121 in her last three), (5) Absolutely Buzzing (LTO winner) and (9) Judge Frank (also won LTO) would be amongst those favoured to do well, but I suspect they’ll also be the first three in the market, which isn’t ideal.

(11) Oriental Spirit and (12) Roman Spring were both runners-up last time, though and the former is noted as a fast finisher. Absolutely Buzzing and Judge Frank are two of five three year olds getting a 4lbs weight allowance.

Pace is often the key to going well here at Windsor and based on the field’s last four races, both Daisy Roots and Roman Spring appear in the first three…

...whilst Judge Frank is likely to race prominently too and he's very conveniently drawn in the central area that seems to do well over a mile here. If truth be told, it might be a bit of a stretch for either or both Roman Spring and/or Oriental Spirit to run two good races in a row, but they do look dangerous and I don't really want to leave any of the top three out from the last leg, in case we're still in with a chance of winning something. I am reluctantly going to take five shots again, but if I was to leave one out, it would probably be Absolutely Buzzing.

All of which gives me an overall (late race heavy) selection of...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 7

Leg 2: horses 1 & 2

Leg 3: horses 4, 9 & 10

Leg 4: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 5: horses 1, 2, 6, 10 & 13

Leg 6: horses 2, 5, 9, 11 & 12

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good luck however you play this one, I'm off to see some monkeys!
Chris.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 02/09/24

Sorry for the late posting of the column today, I've had some tech gremlins going on at home the past few days, but hopefully all is now fixed!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.10 Roscommon
  • 7.30 Windsor

Of the three UK races above, the one with the most runners is the 7.30 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Betweenthesticks won last time out, whilst Jungle Run finished third on his last start. Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both won their penultimate outings and Cabeza De Llave won six races ago, but Papa Don't Preach, Agostino and Jungle Run are currently on losing streaks of 12, 7 & 9 respectively, whilst Chiedozie is still a maiden after 13 attempts.

Tilsworth Ony Ta and Glamorous Joy both drop down a class here and as a three year old, the latter gets a 1lb weight allowance, as does the maiden Chiedozie.

Chiedozie is, of course, yet to win over 5f, but so are Agostino and Jungle Run, whilst Tilsworth Ony Ta and Cabeza de Llave are both former course and distance winners, albeit from July 2022 and June 2022 respectively.

These course and distance wins are too far back to make it onto what looks a pretty bleak 2-year window on Instant Expert...

...which probably doesn't help mus find a winner, but does highlight the scarcity of wins in general from this field and more specifically Betweenthesticks at going/trip, Papa Don't Preach (trip), Agostino (trip) and also Cabeza de Llave at the trip. let's hope the place records are more helpful...

At last, some green! But Papa Don't Preach still struggles at the trip, whilst both Agostino and Cabeza de Llave look generally weak, although the latter is now some 10lbs below his last turf win (he did win on the A/W fairly recently off 57, though). Betweenthesticks has some decent numbers too and at 13lbs below his last turf win, he could be dangerous too. Tilsworth Ony Ta is probably/possibly the pick of the pack on place stats.

On a quick straight 5f, there shouldn't be much of a draw bias here, but past races have favoured those drawn highest, especially from stall 5 and higher, when it comes to making the frame...

...but pace (our daily feature) is clearly a different matter with over half of front-runners holding on for at least a place and over 40% of those placers going on to win. The graph shows an almost linear improvement in win chances the further forward a horse races here over 5f at Windsor...

...which based on recent runs, could be good news for the likes of Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta...

Summary

Pace is generally key here over the shorter trips at Windsor and on that basis, I'm splitting the pack in half and focusing upon Agostino, Betweenthesticks, Jungle Run and Tilsworth Ony Ta from the pace data above. If we then look back at the draw stats, Jungle Run looks least favoured from stall one as the other trio will emerge from boxes 5, 6 and 8.

Agostino was the weakest of the four on Instant Expert and has yet to win any of twelve starts on Turf, making the frame just once, so I'm effectively picking between Tilsworth Ony Ta and Betweenthesticks with the latter in marginally better form.

Betweenthesticks is the most likely winner today in my opinion, but at odds ranging from 15/8 to 9/4 as of 8.35am on Monday, I'm not really tempted to jump in. You can, however, get 8/1 about Tilsworth from Bet365, Sky & Hills, so that might be the E/W value play today, but as ever on a Monday my advice is not to dig too deeply into your pockets.

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/08/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.25 Salisbury
  • 2.45 Chepstow
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.20 Tramore
  • 5.30 Windsor
  • 8.40 Chelmsford

...from which I'm going to look at Race 23 of the 2024 Racing League aka the 5.30 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

...featuring a quartet of LTO winners.

Great Acclaim won at Chepstow a week ago and has three wins and a place from his last five starts, Placeholder won at Wolverhampton 23 days ago and has won two of her three races to date, whilst Sunny Corner comes here on a hat-trick having won three and been a runner-up once in his last four starts. Bottom weight Zenzic got off the mark at the fourth time of asking when scoring at Yarmouth a week ago.

Starliner won six races ago, Rascal Recknell won three races ago, Candomore won four back and Post Rider has finished 1132 in her last four, but Bayadere is winless in her four outings.

Placeholder and Sunny Corner are both denoted as fast finishers and both step up a class here, as do handicap debutant Bayadere and Post Rider, whilst Zenzic is up two classes as he runs in a handicap for just the second time.

All nine bar Rascal Recknell have had at least one run in the last four weeks, but he now returns from a near 8-week break during which he was gelded. Starliner will wear blinkers for the first time today, whilst it's a debut in cheekpieces for Post Rider.

Starliner, Rascal Recknell and the maiden Bayadere are all yet to win over today's trip and sole track winner, Great Acclaim won over course and distance back in May at the start of his current five-race purple patch and this is reflected below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

We've a relatively inexperienced bunch under today's conditions, but I'm probably already against Bayadere on good to firm ground and Starliner over today's trip. The latter has also only won one of six at this grade and Rascal Recknell's record isn't much better, so whilst Instant Expert isn't necessarily pointing me towards a bet just yet, it was worth looking, because I've already been able to cross four of the nine runners off my list of contenders.

My next port of call is draw analysis, which tells us that those drawn in the three lowest stalls have fared best...

...supplying us with 46.25% and 38.43% of the placers from just 33.1% of the runners, which in isolation could be good news for Placeholder, Candonomore and Bayadere, whilst those drawn centrally (Starliner, Zenzic and Rascal Recknell) would appear to have the worst of the draw. That said, over a race as long as a mile with both left and right-handed turns, the draw really shouldn't be the deciding factor here and at Windsor race positioning/tactics aka pace is often key and if we look at how those races above were won...

..it has certainly been a case of the further forward you can race, the better! This would appear to suit Post Rider most, if this field's recent races are anything to go by...

Summary

For me, the form horse Great Acclaim should be the one to beat here, but his tendency to run in mid-division may well cause him to lose this one, if front-running Post Rider is afforded an easy/soft lead. That said, Post Rider herself is no slouch and comes here in good nick and was only beaten by half a length last time out and she'd be my pick here in what looks like being a really tight contest.

Great Acclaim should still make the frame but will need to work hard to make up ground and if pushed for another runner to make the frame, I'd probably go with either Placeholder or Sunny Corner and it was no real surprise to see that bookies had these four runners at the head of the market at 3.45pm on Wednesday...

Zenzic could easily make the frame too, based on his LTO win and is almost at a backable price for E/W purposes, but i'm not interested in the bottom two of the market and unless I've read the race incorrectly, Bayadere seems way too short on handicap debut.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/07/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 4.50 Galway
  • 7.40 Windsor
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

All three UK races are the same standard, so with it being a Monday night, let's have a quick look at the 7.40 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over slightly further than a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Atlantis Blue and More Than A Feeling both got off the mark last time out, albeit after 14 and 4 defeats respectively. Delicacy was third after a pair of runner-up finishes, but remains a maiden after eight starts, whilst Resonance is a seven-race maiden. Mirroring is 1 from 8, having won four starts ago at Epsom, back in August 2023 and Mizuumi is 1 from 4 despite winning on debut back in December. She has been last home of four in two of her three starts since. Cherry Hill has won just one of ten, which was at Kempton in September of last year. She has been beaten four times since, including being last home of ten on two occasions.

Mirroring will wear a hood for the first time today, whilst the fast-finisher More Than A Feelin steps up in class, as does Cherry Hill. At the ages of 4 and 5, the top three on the card (Atlantis Blue, Resonance & Soi Dao) are effectively 8lbs out of the handicap here, as they don't get the weight allowance that the five others get as three year olds. Resonance last raced just over eight weeks ago and the others have all had a run in the last 33 days. Despite the field only having won 8 of 93 combined starts (Soi Dao is 3 from 36 out of that!), Atlantis Blue, Soi Dao and Mizuumi have all still managed a win over today's trip. Only four of the field have raced at Windsor before (once each) with two placed efforts being the best results to date, meaning that we're probably going to get more from the place element of Instant Expert than we are from the win stats...

All of which is pretty uninspiring if truth be told, isn't it? That said, Atlantis Blue, Delicacy and Cherry Hill are probably the take-aways from this. These three will run from stalls 2, 5 and 6 and whilst there's no huge draw bias here, the lower drawn runners might just have a slight edge...

...but it is slight, for sure. Race positioning, however, is a different matter. We call this PACE and it's Monday's free feature and Windsor certainly suits those brave enough to set the tempo and if we look at how those races above have panned out, you'd probably agree with me that pace is more important than draw today...

...and this belief is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then look at the pace scores from the field's last few races...

...you'd have to say that Atlantis Blue and Delicacy would be best positioned.

Summary

From Instant Expert, Atlantis Blue, Delicacy and Cherry Hill had the edge and it's Atlantis Blue and Delicacy who look best positioned on pace, so that's the pair I'm siding with here. I've no prices (as of Sunday 4.15pm) to guide me, so I'll suggest that Delicacy would be the one I'd go with marginally. She seems in more consistent form despite winning and the booking of Tom Marquand is a bonus here.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/07/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 6.10 Ballinrobe
  • 6.20 Windsor
  • 7.30 Beverley
  • 7.50 Windsor

...the highest-rated of which is only Class 4. Mind you, as ide from one Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase at nearby (to me, anyway) Cartmel, Class 4 is as good as it gets in the UK on another miserable Monday. The race in question here is the 7.50 Windsor, a six-runner, Class 4, fillies' flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

NAAEY was a runner-up and then a winner on her first two starts (both at Class 5), but found life tougher last time out when 7th of 8 (beaten by 15 lengths) in a Listed race at Pontefract, just under a fortnight ago. She's now down three classes for her handicap debut and should put up a better show here.

MOTHER MARY has gone six races without a win, since landing a 7f Novice event at Thirsk almost a year ago. She has failed to even make the frame in three handicap runs to date and was 15th of 24 in a Class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot last time out. She drops two classes to run here, but it's hard to have much confidence in her and she steps up in trip by 2f.

WARREN HILL tends to be there or thereabouts without clocking the wins up as recent results of 4144 would testify. She has won two of the thirteen career starts so far and is probably best left watched on her return from over five months off track. Both career wins have however been over today's trip.

STAR JASMINE won over a mile on heavy ground at Bath at the start of April and was only beaten by a short head and a nose over 1m1f at Hamilton seven weeks ago but was disappointing at York last time out when only 10th of 18. She's down in class here, though and also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

SEEK AND DESTROY makes a handicap debut after finishing second (beaten by a nose) and then first over today's trip. Both races were Class 5 affairs, though, so she's up in class here today, but her last run/win was here over course and distance. Also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

SEA REGAL has also only raced three times before and managed to win over today's trip two starts ago. She didn't seem to 'get' 1m4f last time out, but now drops back in trip. She is, however, up in class for her handicap debut, but does benefit from that 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

We're obviously not holding too much data about a field of six with a combined 35 races (Warren Hill & Mother Mary have raced 21 times between them!), but this is what Instant Expert can tell us...

Only Warren Hill has won a flat handicap so far and she's now rated 6lbs higher than that win, but she has two good runs under her belt on good to firm ground, despite not winning, but she has won at the trip and has also made the frame in one of her Class 4 defeats, as well as over 1m2f. Seek and Destroy is probably the best equipped off what little data we do have. She'll emerge from stall 1 today, but I don't think there's a 'good' or a 'bad' part of the stalls to emerge from here, based on past results, anyway...

...so I'm hoping to get some help from our feature of the day 'PACE' which we can assess in two ways. Firstly we can see how those 70-odd races above have been won...

...with front-runners definitely the horses to be on. Secondly, regarding pace, we can also look at how his field have approached their last few races ie...

...suggesting that Sea Regal, Seek And Destroy and possibly Naaey will be the ones setting the tempo.

Summary

Seek And Destroy won over course and distance last time out, having narrowly failed to win her previous outing. She was the standout on Instant Expert, albeit off limited data and she's likely to be front and forward early doors here, just as is needed at Windsor, so it's Seek And Destroy for me today.

There are then pros and cons for each of the other five as to who might pose the biggest challenge, but Sea Regal will also be prominent and dis win over this trip at the last time she tackled it. She also gets the weight allowance like Seek And Destroy, so Sea Regal is my next best here.

At 4.50pm Sunday, Bet365 were offering 4/1 and 11/4 about Seek An d Destroy respectively with Naaey a 2/1 favourite, so we might have a bit of value.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/07/23

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.50 Downpatrick
  • 5.50 Killarney
  • 7.25 Killarney
  • 8.10 Wolverhampton
  • 8.20 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a quick look at the 8.20 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

FORM : Fast Steps, Expert Witness and Morcar all won their last races and God of Fire comes here on a hat-trick. pink Lily has won two of her last three, whilst only Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are winless in at least seven races, having been beaten in their previous ten, seven and eight outings respectively.

CLASS : All four LTO winners are up one class here, as is the fast-finishing Tribal Wisdom who was a half-length runner-up to Morcar last time around. Pink Lily also steps up in class after failing to complete a hat-trick when only fourth of five at Newmarket. Spirit of the Bay should find this a little easier today, as she drops down a class after finishing 6th of 7 over 1m2f here at Windsor, beaten by more than eight lengths a fortnight ago.

LAST RACE : All thirteen runners have had at least one run in the last five (God of Fire) to thirty-one (New Heights) days, so all should be race-tuned.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORDS : Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if any...

Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if there is one...

New Heights and Morcar should also like the underfoot conditions, but Silver Gunn is 0 from 5 on good to firm, the same record that both New Heights and Morcar have at Class 4, whilst the trip seems to have been an issue for Silver Gunn, Spirit of the Bay and Tribal Wisdom, but at least Spirit of the Bay is now rated 6lbs lower than her last win with Fast Steps, God of Fire, Expert Witness and Pink Lily all at 5/6 lbs higher than their last wins.

From a place perspective...

Fast Steps still looks the one to beat but from the going/class/course/distance categories Expert Witness also has two blocks of green and is untried at class/track and at this stage, the ones I'm still interested in are...

Previous similar races haven't shown much in the way of a draw bias, but that's not entirely unexpected over a trip of this distance with both left and right handed turns...

...but this is where our feature of the day, the pace data, comes into its own. Those races above were quite fairly shared out through the various sectors of the stalls, but they were dominated by front-runners...

...who won 24% of the races by providing just 10.2% of the runners and also accounted for over 18.5% of the placers, so whilst the draw might not make or break a runner's chances here at Windsor, there's certainly an advantage in being up with the pace and if we consider how these horses have approached their last few races...

...that's got be a positive for the likes of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily.

Summary

Fast Steps was the standout from Instant Expert and is a former course and distance winner and would probably be my pick, but for the way he has been ridden in recent races. He's going to need to get involved a little sooner here if he's to win and with that not certain to happen, I'll keep him as a placer rather than a winner.

I'm going to then take the first two from the pace list of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily, as they bring the best recent form to the table, God of Fire heads the pace charts and Expert Witness was the other standout from Instant Expert.

All of which gives me God of Fire, Expert Witness and Fast Steps as my three against the field. Expert Witness' LTO win came over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago and she beat God Of Fire by a length and three quarters off equal weights. God of Fire is two from two since then and will now carry 3lbs more than Expert Witness, so I'm going to side with Expert Witness here.

We'd no odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday (early dart for the football!), so here are the best 'guesstimates' from Oddschecker, Racing Post and Timeform respectively...

...which suggest there might be a bit of value in the price for Expert Witness here.

Racing Insights, Monday 01/07/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.15 Pontefract
  • 4.45 Pontefract
  • 7.15 Windsor
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to have a look at the 7.15 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm, ground...

...where hat-trick seeking  and fast-finishing Haymaker is the sole LTO winner, although Aramis Grey and Amazonian Dream finished second and third respectively on their last outings. Yet despite being a regular placer (15 top 3 finishes from her last 19 races), Aramis Grey is the only runner in this field without a win in starts, having suffered eleven defeats on the bounce and her cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a class here, as does Under The Twilight, whilst 'form horse' Haymaker is up two classes.

Rohaan and Wallop both last raced eight weeks ago and the other half dozen have all been seen in the last 10-23 days, so we should have no fitness issues from a field where all eight have won at least once over today's trip and all bar the afore-mentioned Rohaan and Wallop have won over course and distance, Mind you, neither has been to Windsor before, as demonstrated by Instant Expert...

...where my main concerns are the lack of Class 2 wins aside from Rohaan, of course and Aramis Grey's poor win record at this trip plus the fact she's some 15lbs higher than her last win. That, I suppose, is the danger of running well, but not quite well enough to win.

With the lack of Class 2 wins above, it might well be worth looking at Class 3 form...

...where Katey Kontent has been the standout with all of Under The Twilight's wins coming at Class 4. With the lack of Class 2 form above, I've included the Class 3 data in the place stats from above...

...and here you can see some of Aramis Grey's placed finishes that I mentioned earlier as she, along with Under The Twilight, Haymaker, Katey Kontent and Shagraan seem the ones to focus upon.

There shouldn't be too much of an advantage for any of these runners from the draw, although Amazonian Dream should be aware that there's a fair drop off beyond stall 7...

...and whilst those draw stats aren't a huge help to us, our feature of the day is PACE and we're at Windsor for a straight 6f on quick ground, where pace is key. We didn't get much help from the draw in those 110+ races, but just look at how they were won...

...which speaks for itself, I think. So, we want to be on a front-runner and preferably not from stall 8, so if we look at how the field has approached its last few outings...

...we can make a fairly reasoned assumption that Shagraan might well attempt to win this from the front from stall 2 with the in-form Haymaker the one most likely to give chase.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, but from the pace chart (which is key at Windsor), Shagraan and Haymaker could be a fair way clear of Aramis Grey, Katey Kontent and Under The Twilight (I'd already ruled Wallop, Amazonian Dream and Rohaan out of my considerations) and I'm certainly wanting these front-runners in my final three.

As for the third placer, I actually think that Katey Kontent might well be the best horse in the race, but won't be suited by the pace of this one but should still make the frame. As for the winner, I prefer Shagraan over Haymaker, as the former will be out in front first and the latter is up two classes, but should still place.

Sadly, though, the bookies are also on to this pace bias at Windsor and as of 4.45pm Sunday, they went...

Based on the above, perennial placer Aramis Grey might not be a bad E/W shout if any of my preferred trio fail to fire.

Racing Insights, Monday 17/06/24

 

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  3.18 Chepstow
  • 4.00 Carlisle
  • 4.45 Kilbeggan
  • 7.45 Kilbeggan

The two UK races above are Class 4/5 affairs, but with the daily feature in mind, there are a couple of Class 3 sprints on the evening card at Windsor. One has sixteen runners, so I'll swerve that in favour of the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sole filly Queen’s Guard is the only LTO winner and has two wins and two places from her last four outings. Aramram won two races ago and fast finisher Salvuccio won five starts back, as did Beyond Borders when completing a hat-trick. Jimmy Speaking won two of his last three, Sky Warrior won four races ago and despite three losses on the bounce, The Good Biscuit is still two from five, so this could be a useful contest.

Salvuccio is the only one of the seven who raced at Class 3 last time and he now wears first time blinkers. Aramram makes a handicap debut and is the only class dropper in the field with the other five runners all stepping up from Class 4. All bar Salvuccio have won over this trip, but we’ve no former course winners amongst a group that have all raced in the last 17 days and according to Instant Expert...

...mainly have a good win record over 6f. The Good Biscuit will like the ground here, having won two from three, whilst from a place perspective...

...it's probably time to write Salvuccio off from my considerations. Unusually over a straight 6f, there does seem to be abit of a draw bias in these smaller fields with stalls 1 to 3 having the best win records and stalls 1 to 5 faring best for the places, which might not bode well for Jimmy Speaking or Aramram...

If we then return to our feature of the day, pace, we see that those 90-odd races above have been dominated by front runners...

...making the success of low drawn leaders in the following pace/draw heat map of little surprise...

We can now check how these runners have approached their most recent races...

...data that opens the door for the two highest drawn runners, Jimmy Speaking and Aramram.

Summary

There's no standout runner here in what looks a tight contest. Queen's Guard is one of the form horses, but she seems unsuited by her pace profile and is up 7lbs for her LTO win, so I think that Jimmy Speaking might be a safer option at 13/2 with Hills (8.15pm Sunday), he's going to be up with the pace and has won two of his last three. Hopefully he'll edge the filly out and land the forecast too.

Racing Insights, Monday 10/06/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  4.40 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 5.48 Roscommon
  • 6.18 Roscommon

Neither of the UK 'free' races really appeal to me, so I'm going just look at the day's highest-rated race, the 7.40 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Rocking Ends is our sole LTO winner, although Isle of Lismore won his penultimate race and was a runner-up last time, meaning that just two of the field were in the frame on their most recent outing. That said, all bar Mountain Peak have won at least once in the last seven, but he is winless in eleven stretching back almost two years.

His bid to snap his cold streak won't be helped by him stepping up a class, as do Isle of Lismore and Dusky Lord, whilst LTO winner Rocking Ends is up two levels. Mountain Peak last raced seven weeks ago, but all his rivals have ran at least once in the last four weeks and every one of the ten runners here have won over today's trip with Isle of Lismore, Rocking Ends and Antiphon all scoring over course and distance...

In fairnes, there's not a great deal of positivity from the win stats on Instant Expert today, but Good Earth does like the good to firm ground. From a negative perspective, it's not looking good for Thunder Moor, Woolhampton and Dusky Lord with a full line of red, whilst Squealer is 9lbs higher than his last win, so I think we'll need to check the place stats...

...which does paint a better picture, but it has to be the end of the road for Squealer (weight), Thunder Moor and Dusky Lord. Woolhampton's place stats are decent, so she earns a reprieve for now, whilst Antiphon clearly loves it here at Windsor finishing 114232212 since his first visit here on 2nd May 2022.

As you'd expect, there's no huge draw bias over a straight 5f on quick ground...

.but when it comes to our feature of the day, Pace, it's a different story with horses faring much better from both a win and a place perspective, the further forward they race...

...which makes sense really doesn't it? Hold-up horses don't have time to catch up over a fast five. Based on the field's most recent efforts, this pace bias would seem to suit Windsor-lover Antiphon better than Woolhampton...

If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

...the ideal combo is the low drawn leader and Isle of Lismore scoring 3.00 for pace above and has the no.1 stall, then that could be good news.

Summary

Isle of Lismore is in good form and has the ideal pace/draw combo to succeed here. He won a similar race over course and distance this time last year and at a generally available (as of 5.40pm Sunday) 5/1, he'd be the one for me.

Rocking Ends is only up 2lbs for a good win LTO, but the dual step up in class might be his undoing here, whilst course specialist Antiphon looks a little high in the weights. Both have great chances of making the frame but at respective odds of 4/1 and 10/3, there's nothing in them from an E/W perspective.

If I did want a longer-priced horse to outrun their odds, then the 17/2 Navello might be the one, but I wouldn't be throwing too much of your hard-earned at it!

Racing Insights, Monday 20/05/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 5.06 Windsor
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 6.50 Roscommon
  • 7.40 Windsor

...so we're off to Windsor. I've opted to look at the first of the list, that 5.06 race, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio all come here off the back of LTO wins inside the last five weeks and Freds Mate won three starts ago. I Love Paris, Rakki and Malinka are yet to get off the mark after 5, 4 and 3 starts respectively.

I Love Paris and Rakki both drop in class here and that might help them here and Freds Mate has been gelded since his last run. That run was 136 days ago, so he might well need the run, but at 184 days off, Alacrity's fitness will be tested hee ,as the others have all raced in the last 37 days.

We don't have much relevant form to go off, but Caprelo won over this trip at Kempton last time out and Lucentio's win here a fortnight ago was over course and distance. Sadly this field have very little experience at this level and this is reflected in a lack of data within Instant Expert..

 

...so I'll move straight on to the draw stats, which suggest that runners in stalls 1 and 2 could be disadvantaged...

...whilst those races above have been won as follows...

...and with so many different viable options available, it could be an open contest, where I suspect Alacrity will be the early pacesetter, if his recent runs are anything to go by...

On that 'evidence', Malinka would be the back marker but be aware of horses changing how they run in the early stages of their careers.

If we now put what we know about the field into that pace-draw heatmap...

Summary

Pretty short and hopefully sweet today and I can't help but think that the 3 LTO winners, Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio will provide our first three home here, although Rakki looks good on the pace/draw heatmap.

Alacrity might need a run, Caprelo's form has all been on the A/W while Lucentio's LTO win was on soft ground, so none of the three are perfect.

Should Alacrity be race-fit, then he'd be my tentative pick at 5/1*, offering more apparent value than the 5/2* and 11/4* being offered about Caprelo and Lucentio with the latter being my preference.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 5pm Sunday

Racing Insights, Monday 13/05/24

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.47 Catterick
  • 4.55 Roscommon
  • 5.35 Windsor
  • 5.55 Roscommon
  • 6.40 Killarney

Regular readers will know that I rarely get involved with Irish racing, which takes away three of the five races above for me, but each to their own of course! And if I'm honest, I'm not really too interested in the two UK races above either, so I'm just going to look at the highest-rated race in the UK, the 6.35 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

My initial thoughts before diving in were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad, but let's see what the data tells us...

Leap Abroad won last time out, sixteen days ago and Laoisman completed a hat-trick five weeks ago, as he returned from 195 days off the track, so he has come back fresh. We've no other LTO winners, but both Katey Kontent and Coup de Force were runners-up on their last runs, but Katey Knotent is actually the only one in this field without at least one win in their last six outings, having been beaten in all seven starts (albeit narrowly in her last two) since winning her first two starts back in May 2022.

Her cause might not be helped by a 1lb and 1 class rise here today, but she's not alone in stepping up as Laosman, Leap Abroad and Coup de Force all make the same move from Class 4, whilst bottom-weight Lady Dreamer is up two classes here. Moving down in class are top-weight Executive Decision and Dusky Lord, who drop from Class 2 action, but both might be in need of a run after breaks of 203 and 220 days respectively; this might also apply to Katey Kontent (221 days) and Coup de Force (202 days).

Aside from the four runners above who haven't raced since last October, the other half-dozen have all had at least one run since the start of April. The trip should be fine for most of these, as only Rhythm n Hooves and Katey Kontent have yet to win at this distance and both Indian Creak and Lady Dreamer have achieved the feat here at Windsor in August '23 and July '23 respectively. Katey Kontent's form over 6f is improving and reads 432, but she has won over 5f here at Windsor, back in May 2022 on what was just her second outing...

Instant Expert probably helps us put red marks against runners rather than green ticks today, as Indian Creak and to lesser extent, Coup de Force, look unsuited by the going, whilst Indian Creak's win record at Class 3 is lamentable with his 6 from 42 at the trip hardly setting the world alight. Lady Dreamer has struggled to win at this trip, too, with just one win from eight. That said, she has made the frame in four of her seven defeats...

Indian Creak still looks weak, though and whilst I'm unsure of many of these from a win perspective, you could make a case for most of them to make the frame over a track and trip that has rewarded low-drawn runners most in terms of wins, but has offered more opportunities to make the frame from those drawn highest...

...but the big thing here at Windsor is pace, which fits in nicely with today's free feature. If truth be told, the draw bias above isn't massive but if we look at how those 110+ races above were won...

...it's pretty clear what the optimum tactics would be and this means we're looking for the horses with high pace scores. For those unsure how this works (it's in the user guide better than I'll explain!) we look at every race in the UK and award a score of 4 to a horse that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for those who raced in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up horse. It's not an exact timed science, but it really does help us to see who might well set the pace.

Our field's last four runs look like this...

...with Leap Around the likely front-runner ahead of Lady Dreamer, Indian Creak and Laoisman, whilst both Kiwano and Katey Kontent arrive here on the back of three hold-up runs and if that's repeated here, they'll find it hard to win, I'd have thought.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad. After everything I've written/read, I'm still pretty keen on two of them, but I can't warm to Katey Kontent right now. She's on a losing run, but on a rising mark and up in class. She's likely to need a run after a lay-off and shouldn't be suited here from a pace perspective.

If I follow my daily processes as above, she's a definite no (watch her now romp home at 6/1!) but I'm sticking with Laoisman and Leap Abroad and I've got them in that order too.

For a third horse to make the frame, I want to be on a horse with a recent run, so not Coup de Force, Executive Decision nor Dusky Lord. Of the four remaining options, I'm inclined to side with Lady Dreamer, who has an excellent place record under today's conditions. She won her last start of 2023 and clearly needed a run last time out, she's a course and distance winner, she gets weight all round and runs off a mark lower than her last win.

No odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday afternoon, but an average of the tissues provided by Oddschecker, Timeform & Racing Post has Laoisman at 10/3, Leap Around at 4.11/1 (37/9 anyone?) and Lady Dreamer at 14.67 (44/3) respectively, so there might well be an E/W bet in the offing.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/04/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.00 Ayr
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 7.39 Windsor
  • 7.50 Naas
  • 9.00 Wolverhampton

If truth be told, none of the three UK races above appeal to me for one reason or another (never bet in a race that doesn't interest you!), so I'm going to look at the highest-rated/most valuable UK race of the day, the 6.39 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on soft ground...

Early indications/thoughts are that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) top-weight Asgard's Captain, fast-finisher Fast Steps and sole LTO winner Mythical Guest, but let's have a closer look to see what we can find.

Mythical Guest was indeed the only one these nine runners to win last time out, but Fast Steps and First Officer were both runners-up and Asgard's Captain has won three of his last four before going down by four lengths at Lingfield on Good Friday. On the other hand, Enthrallment, Fast Steps and Grey Fox are on losing runs, having been beaten in their last 12, 7 and 8 races respectively.

Fast Steps' and Grey Fox's hopes of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by a step up in class here and LTO winner Mythical Guest is also up from Class 5, but Asgard's Captain, The Whipmaster and First officer all step down a level. Only four of the field have raced in the past month, as Enthrallment, Silver Gunn, First Officer, The Whipmaster and Grey Fox return from respective breaks of 101, 144, 178, 178 and 228 days.

Enthrallment has moved yards during his layoff and is the only one of the nine without a win at a similar trip to this one and of the five to have raced here at Windsor before, only Mythical Guest has failed to win, as The Whipmaster scored here over 1m3½f last June and Silver Gunn, Fast Steps & Grey Fox are all former course and distance winners. This info is shown on Instant Expert, along with details of three former soft ground winners...

...there's no real standout candidate there, but Silver Gunn's numbers are pretty decent. I should refer to Asgard's Captain now being some 34lbs higher than his last win, too. He is indeed running off 89 which is 34lbs higher than the 49 he was rated when winning at Musselburgh in August 2023. Since then, he had a twenty-week break before racing solely on the A/W this year finishing 1521118 winning off marks of 63, 68, 73 and 79, so he's 'only' 4lbs higher than his last actual win and could be weighted nicely if bringing his A/W game to the Turf.

Our draw analyser suggests that those drawn lowest here might be at a disadvantage from a win perspective...

...but have as good a chance of any of making the frame and if we look at how those 40-odd races were won, we find that those prepared to set the pace have been the most successful...

...and if recent races are anything to go by...

...Asgard's Captain could very well be afforded an easy early lead.

Summary

The draw/pace stats suggest a high draw coupled with a willingness to lead could be the perfect storm here with 6 high drawn leaders from 14 making the frame with 4 (28.57%) going on to win...

Asgard's Captain is drawn highest of all and tops the pace chart, he has won 6 of his last 10, 5 of his last 8 and 3 of his last 4 and was a winner on his last outing in this grade, so it's Asgard's Captain at 7/2 (Sunday 5pm) for me here.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 23/10/23

It was a good end to the week with the 11/2 Vintage Clarets winning for us at Catterick and with our E/W pick Glorious Angel finishing second, I'm glad a few of you got on. Those who also followed my suggestion that Count D'Orsay could also make the frame were rewarded with a 3rd place run at 16/1. Thanks to all of you who emailed to say that like me, you backed all three and had a nice payout. The tricast was a huge 700/1, but sadly I wasn't on that!

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 2.00 Pontefract
  • 2.55 Windsor
  • 5.15 Plumpton
  • 6.30 Southwell
  • 6.40 Wolverhampton

...from which we're staying on the Flat where we've racing's extremes in terms of going and trip for the 2.55 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Our sole LTO winner Spoof has won 3 of his last 8, Korker won two starts ago, Chipstead won six ago and Executive Decision is two from four, but unplaced in her last two. Navello also failed to place in his last two, but is two from five, whilst Woolhampton has placed but not won in each of her last three, but did win six races ago. Crimson Sand has been a runner-up in three of seven but hasn't won in 13, whilst bottom weight Punchbowl Flyer brings the worst form to the table, having failed to make the frame in his last 17 races since winning at Windsor way back in June 2021!

Punchbowl Flyer's seemingly lost cause won't be helped by having to step up a class here as does LTO winner Spoof, nor will a two class rise help Crimson Sand's prospects, but the top two in the weights, the in-form Korker and Chipstead, both drop down from Listed class, where they were second (beaten by a neck) and fifth (3L) behind Emaraaty Ana at Ascot sixteen days ago in a race I covered here. So, they both ran 16 days ago and all bar Navello (44 days) and Crimson Sand (189 days) of this field have been in action this month; the latter might well need the run and is probably another nail in the coffin for his chances.

All bar Executive Decision and Punchbowl Flyer have already won over today's trip, but the latter's three wins from 4 over 6f on this track make him, just one of two course winners alongside Spoof who has three wins and three places from nine efforts over course and distance and those course wins are highlighted in Instant Expert...

...where he certainly looks the one to beat, although class-dropping Chipstead has good numbers too. Punchbowl Flyer looks interesting on that graphic, especially off a mark 22lbs below his last win, but as I pointed out earlier, that win was in June 2021 and he hasn't even made the frame in 17 races since. Speaking of making the frame, here's the place data from those races above...

...which pushes the place claims of Chipstead even more. Woolhampton is an interesting sort with a terrible win record across the board under today's conditions, but a regular placer, She has only won one of seventeen on the Flat, but has made the frame on eight occasions. There's no reason to suggest she can't place again here, but I'm wary of backing 1 in 17 types to go on to win. She is drawn lowest of all in stall 1, though and based on past races here at Windsor, that represents her best chances of success today...

...although I wouldn't ever rule any horse out of it based purely on the draw over a straight run. You'll notice that I've had to make some logical tweaks to the parameters above in order to get myself a workable sample size, so we do need to take the data with an element of trust, but if we proceed as it stands, the lower draw looks favourable. That said, it's a straight five and I'm convinced that feature of the day, PACE, should take centre stage, so let's see how those nearly 100 races were won...

...and that's pretty conclusive to me. You need to get out quick and stay out, coming from off the pace is tricky here at Windsor, especially in tricky conditions and the above data is verified by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then look at how this field have approached their last few outings and overlay this data onto the heat map, we get something like this...

...which sadly displays a distinct lack of early pace. However only Spoof has avoided being a hold-up horse of late and Chipstead and Crimson Sand were both prominent last time out.

Summary

Spoof is the course (course & distance specialist) and doesn't tend to be held up, so he's in the frame here. I also think that he's one of the better horses here. Chipstead is interesting from a place perspective and has scored well through my analysis, but doesn't win here in my eyes, as he's held by Korker from last time, which puts Korker on my possibles list too!

I actually prefer Korker to Spoof in terms of quality and the assessor rates him as 9lbs better too, but he's carrying 9-9 on heavy ground, has never run on heavy before and if he's coming from off the pace, it could be tough. I'd rather Korker beat Spoof, but I fear they'll finish the other way around. Either way, I agree with the early market that these two are the ones to beat at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively. Spoof is the course and distance specialist and is proven on heavy ground. he won last time out and he's my marginal pick at 3's today. (I think!)

Eleswhere, Chipstead is only 5/1, so I won't be going E/W there and with only Navello (9/1), Punchbowl Flyer (22/1) and Crimson Sand (28/1) longer than 6/1, there's not much scope for an E/W option for me. Navello would be the one, but I think I'd be wanting at least 12 to 14's if not bigger!

Racing Insights, Monday 14/08/23

Sorry for the extremely late edition today, I'm up at my caravan near the Lakes and we've had power issues during Sunday and this morning, so I've been trying to put something together without much success. The power is now (10.00am) is currently back on, but we don't know for how long, so I'm going to have to be quick!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 6.10 Hamilton
  • 7.30 Windsor
  • 7.50 Ballinrobe
  • 8.20 Ballinrobe

The second of the two UK free races looks marginally better than the other, but it's not a great race that awaits us in the 7.30 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f  around the figure of eight on good/good to firm ground...

Portoro won last time out and Goblet of Fire seeks to complete a hat-trick today. Fullforward has won just once in fifteen starts with three further places, whilst the other four runners are winless in a combined twenty races, where they have made the frame on just two occasions between them!

Twoforthegutter, Irezumi, Amma Aurelia and Anticipating all take a drop in class here with the latter pair both making a handicap debut three weeks after their last outing when well beaten in the same 1m2f maiden contest here at Windsor.

Portoro won on handicap debut (1m2f, Salisbury) last time out a month ago and now has a second handicap run, but the first iuting for his new yard. Goblet of Fire has been off the track the longest, but he last ran 33 days ago, so there shouldn't be any fitness issues around.

None of the group have won at either track nor distance, although Anna Aureila did make the frame in one of her three runs here (all her three career runs have been here!). The handicapper only rates this field with a 5lb spread from top to bottom and here are the (scarce) Instant Expert stats...

Not much to go on admittedly, but another tick for hat-trick seeking Goblet of Fire with Portoro also of interest, but he'll find it tougher here raised 13lbs for a 9 length win on handicap debut. Elsewhere not much to talk about, but Fullforward has made the frame in 3 of 7 over a similar trip, but is still 5lbs higher than his sole win nine races and ten months ago, but he was second at Lingfield last time out off today's mark. No Diggity was fourth, 2.5 lengths further back, that day and he was a winner over 1m4f at Brighton last Thursday.

Over a trip this long with both left and right handed bends, the draw really shouldn't be a factor here and although at first glance, the stats would suggest low draws fare badly here...

...that data is somewhat skewed by an inexplicably poor set of results from stall 1, which is where Irezumi will now find himself after the two withdrawals, but I doubt that's likely to make or break his race, whereas the pace might!

Pace/tempo is massively important here at Windsor, as this track tends to suit those willing to get on with things early and those 110+ races are no exception...

That data says you can make the frame from anywhere, but for a better chance of leading you need to be prominent or leading, which is a positive for Fullforward, based on how the field have approached their last few outings...

Summary

I think the two LTO winners, Goblet of Fire and Portoro are the best two horses here and bring the best form to the table. Their rivals bring no winning form with them and I see little reason why one of them would be the winner here. Of the two 'form' horses, Goblet of Fire is in the better form and has a better pace profile. He's 'only' up 6lbs for his win with Portoro up almost a stone, so it's Goblet of Fire for me.

We're not getting rich at 11/4, but it seems a fair price to me for a runner who looks best suited. Portoro might be undone by the pace and with most firms still paying three places, the front-running Fastforward might be a viable E/W option at 8/1, especially if he's afforded a soft lead.

Apologies again for the late posting, hopefully it was worth the wait!