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Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £9.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 74.1% units went through – 5/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 68.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 3: 44.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* - 14/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 66.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 3/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 81.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 10/11* - 15/2

Race 6: 62.7% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/2 – 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Tiar Na Nog) & 2 (Kath’s Legacy)

Leg 2 (6.30): 8 (Implicit) & 4 (Nefarios)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Irene’s Prince), 7 (Balsim) & 5 (Wolf Hunter)

Leg 4 (7.30): 10 (Titus Secret), 6 (Oh So Sassy) & 7 (Field Of Vision)

Leg 5 (8.00): 6 (Sir Plato) & 3 (Shadow Warrior)

Leg 6 (8.30): 6 (Seaborough), 3 (Tour De Paris) & 2 (Bajan Gold)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We landed yet another Placepot dividend (at Salisbury) yesterday which produced 19 points of profit.

 

6.00: Four of the six winners have carried 9-1 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses in the list (one via a claimer) if you take the stats seriously, as does this self-confessed ‘anorak’.  TIAR NA NOG only found a rival in red hot form too good for her last week and connections of Denis Coakley’s six-year-old mare should gain compensation in this grade/company.  KATH’S LEGACY looks likely to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Biotic.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (one gold and three silver medallists) have secured Placepot positions thus far.

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Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/10—Biotic (good)

1/3—Munsarim (good to firm)

 

6.30: Support for IMPLICIT from James Tate’s shrewd yard would be a positive pointer towards the twice raced Kodiac filly, though realistic money in the positive exchange queue has already arrived for Henry Candy’s Zebedee colt NEFARIOS which is impossible to ignore.  Oona will not doubt run another sound race but it would be a tad disappointing if the first named pair failed to finish in front of Richard Hannon’s February foal.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished second thus far whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

7.00: David Evans has won six of the last seven renewals and with two of the eleven entries in David’s care, IRENE’S PRINCE and BLASIM are the first two names on the team should which you might have guessed.  That said, Richard Hughes has a decent bunch of juveniles at his disposal this year and WOLF HUNTER was running on well at Goodwood last week which suggests that this slightly tougher track (with an additional furlong to travel) will suit.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 14 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 13 years having been returned at just 7/1.  The last twelve gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1.  14/15 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

7.30: All twelve winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that catch the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of OH SO SASSY, TITUS SECRET and FIELD OF VISION.  The booking of Gerald Mosse for Clive Cox’s first named raider is particularly eye-catching given their 3/6 ratio when teaming up thus far.

Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed Placepot positions via eight contests at the time.  Two of the four subsequent market leaders (one winner) have added Placepot positions to the tally.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

3/8—Englishman (good – good to firm – soft)

1/1—Blitz (good)

1/2—Libertum (good to soft)

2/4—Anonymous John (good & heavy)

 

8.00: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the twelve renewals thus far, yet only four trainers (of eight in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with four time course winner SIR PLATO and SHADOW WARRIOR (1/1 at the track) taking centre stage from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites.  Eleven of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.

Record of the four course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Shadow Warrior (good to firm)

1/2—Kingston Kurrajung (soft)

4/6—Sir Plato (2 x good to soft – good – good to firm)

1/7—Harlequin Striker (soft)

 

8.30: Eight of the winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 whereby SEABOROUGH, TOUR DE PARIS and BAJAN GOLD will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  Hopefully England will be at least one or two goals to the good ion the football front by the time that flag fall arrives!  Then again….

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have won during which time, four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 11th June

BRIGHTON – JUNE 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £325.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.5% units went through – 11/4 – 2/1* - 25/1

Race 2: 44.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/2 & 9/4*

Race 3: 8.3% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 12/1 – 20/1 (6/1)

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 4/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 -7/4* - 16/1

Race 6: 68.7% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* & 11/2

 

  • Speculative investors might have thought that they had a four figure dividend in the making last year as the Placepot was worth £33.02 at the halfway stage and £109.04 after four legs. That said, £325.70 is not a bad wage on a daily basis for most folk.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Livvys Dream), 1 (Claudine) & 6 (Angel Of The North)

Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Aegean Mist) & 6 (More Than Likely)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Lady Of Petra), 4 (Sunday Best) & 2 (Medici Oro)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Maori Bob) & 6 (Genetics)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Roundabout Magic), 1 (Big Lachie) & 5 (Ask the Guru)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Impart), 5 (Give Em A Clump) & 3 (New Rich)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: There will be worse outsiders on the card than ANGEL OF THE NORTH today I’ll wager and the 11/1 quote in a couple of places this morning is already looking under threat.  That said, LIVVYS DREAM and CLAUDINE are more logical winners of the contest from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: Both market leaders have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions to date.

 

2.30: AEGEAN MIST looks the only possible danger to MORE THAN LIKELY, with Richard Hughes (2/4 for at the track) trying to ward off his former employers (‘Team Hannon) with his latter named Coach House filly who ran well to run third over this trip at the third time of asking at Windsor.  AEGEAN MIST is expected to run the hot favourite close though from my viewpoint, especially with the Hannon juveniles seemingly needing their first outings this term.  Accordingly, Sean Levey’s mount should be ready to challenge for major honours today.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders thus far picked up a Placepot position via a silver medal effort two years ago.

 

3.00: I’m quite happy to absorb the rule 4 deduction having been on LADY OF PETRA at 20/1 in the dead of night, a quote which might halve in price by the time that flag fall arrives.  I wouldn’t entirely rule out another ‘roughie’ in SUNDAY BEST personally, especially looking at the favourite stats below, albeit it is early doors as far as the contest goes just now.  I guess MEDICI ORO is the player to consider from further up the betting in a race which will take little winning.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for the 11/10 and 6/1 favourites in this race to date.

 

3.30: GENETICS and WHINGING WILLY (offered in that order of preference) have to be considered in such a weak race, though MAORI BOB should take the beating, especially with a five pound claimer reducing the burden today.  Cameron Noble is the relevant rider and with 29 gold medalists to his name alongside a 25% strike rate for Michael Bell via six winners, MAORI BOB is expected to return to winning ways.  ‘Bob’ is now seven pounds better off (taking the jockey claim into account) with Regicide for a two and a quarter length deficit the last day.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot position via two renewals.  That said, it’s only fair to point out that aside from a dead heat, both of the 6/4 joint favourite could not snare the ‘win only’ prize two years back.

Record of the trio of course winners in the third race:

3/13—Whinging Willie (2 x good to firm & good)

2/2—Fair Power (good to firm & good to soft)

2/3—Archimento (good to firm and good to soft)

 

4.00: 10/1 is a slight insult to dual (good to firm) course winner ASK THE GURU from my reading of the race, especially with Michael Attwater having saddled winners at the corresponding meeting in recent years.  I guess the form book reads fairly accurately however, whereby more logical winners include fellow course winner ROUNDABOUT MAGIC and BIG LACHIE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader snared a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Roundabout Magic (good to firm)

2/6—Ask The Guru (2 x good to firm)

 

4.30: DEEDS NOT WORDS won this event off 10-8 twelve months ago (his last victory) whereby his 9-10 burden today could feel like something of a feather-weight to Michael Wigham’s seven-year-old handicapper.  Regular readers will know that I have chased this Royal Applause gelding up hill and down dale in the past, none more so that when securing a double figure price ‘last time out’ which was backed down to less than half those odds before being withdrawn.  There is no doubting his chance but inconsistency has crept into his work now and I’m prepared to sit back and watch him win at ‘cramped’ odds compared to what might be on offer if raised in class for a subsequent race in better company next time out, should Tom Queally’s mount win today.  Preference from a Placepot angle is offered to IMPART, GIVE EM A CLUMP and NEW RICH.  Milly Naseb’s latter named mount might have been the call from a win perspective but for digesting his 0/24 win record on turf.

Favourite factor: Both (9/4 and Even money) favourites have obliged thus far.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Deeds Not Words (good to firm)

1/4—Strictly Carter (god to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 4th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £45.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

There is no breakdown for the race by race Placepot details for Monday – Tote glitch on the day last year by the look of things – back to normal (whatever that is!) for Fontwell tomorrow….

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 1 (Nine Below Zero), 7 (Rock Of Estonia) & 2 (Formidable Kit)

Leg 2 (6.15): 1 (Queen Of Bermuda) & 6 (Leading Spirit)

Leg 3 (6.45): 2 (Buridan) & 1 (Buffer Zone)

Leg 4 (7.15): 7 (Son Of Africa), 6 (Louis De Palma) & 3 (Holmeswood)

Leg 5 (7.45): 2 (What A Welcome) & 3 (Chance To Dream)

Leg 6 (8.15): 5 (Cassini) & 12 (Staplegrove)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.45: NINE BELOW ZERO won the juvenile event on the card last year and with Ralph Beckett’s Showcasing gelding meeting trouble in running at the first time of asking this season, I’m willing to give him another chance at around the 8/1 mark this evening.  ROCK OF EASTONIA is feared most, albeit FORMIDABLE KIT also looks sure to take a hand in the finish.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged when this race was run as the Placepot finale.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Nine Below Zero (good to firm)

1/1—Rock Of Estonia (good)

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1/3—Iconic Knight (soft)

 

6.15: QUEEN OF BERMUDA ultimately ran out an impressive winner at Thirsk on her second start having also been favourite to land a warm event at Ascot on debut.  Her Thirsk victory wasn’t always on the cards in the race as the Exceed And Excel filly had to be shake up a few times before reaching the business end of the contest by which time, she was impressing with each stride.  Well placed here by William Haggas, the March foal should take the beating.  The two Godolphin runners LEADING SPIRIT (second colours) and FLY THE NEST should offer most resistance close home, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: The two gold medallists to date have secured gold and silver medals at 6/4 and 7/4 respectively whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

6.45: There should not be a great deal of daylight by the time that the jamstick has been reached between BURIDAN and BUFFER ZONE, though I’m sticking with Richard Hannon’s first named raider given his course victory under fast conditions at the first time of asking last year.  Only SWIFT CHILL is offering any type of resistance on the exchanges as far as their rivals are concerned, whereby the first two horses mentioned in dispatches will do for me against the field.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Buridan (good to firm)

 

7.15: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, which unfortunately only eliminates the bottom three horses from my viewpoint.  The pick of the remaining eight contenders will hopefully prove to be SON OF AFRICA, LOUIS DE PALMA and HOLMESWOOD, the trio representing some value against Silent Echo at the top of the handicap.  I readily admit that Peter Hedger’s potential favourite (Silent Echo) deserves to be a popular order but from a Placepot perspective, my trio should offer us decent efforts for our collective monies.  SON OF AFRICA is listed first on account of his other victories at top tracks such as Sandown, Newmarket and Goodwood, aside from posting his success here at Windsor on fast ground back in 2014.

Favourite factor: Just one (3/1) favourite has prevailed during the last eleven years, whilst only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame.  I wonder if it was a bookmaker which dreamed up this series of events which seemingly haunts Windsor cards on a weekly basis?

Record of the four course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/2—Silent Echo (good)

1/1—Louis De Palma (good to firm)

1/1—Son Of Africa (good to firm)

1/2—Mullionheir (good)

 

7.45: Patrick Chamings (WHAT A WELCOME) and John Best (CHANCE TO DREAM) have a chance to lord it over some big named trainers here with their representatives both looking to have first rate chances of claiming Placepot positions at the very least.  I’m finding it difficult to split the pair to be honest whereby my Placepot cash is the only stake involved in this contest.  Zamperini is taken the follow the pair home to secure the bronze medal.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural market leader prevailed at odds of 5/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

2/3—Chance To Dream (good & good to soft)

1/9—Ravenous (good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden boasts a 2/3 record at the venue this season but unless a dead heat occurs here via his two representatives CASSINI and STAPLEGROVE, John’s ratio will be reduced even if one of his inmates wins! Out of interest, LOTHARIO is attracting support on the exchanges in the dead of night, though three-year-olds invariably win these mixed maiden/novice events, especially at this time of the year.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Windsor programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th May

LEICESTER – MAY 28

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £21.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 41.6% units went through – 15/8* - 20/1 – 14/1

Race 2: 78.3% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 5/2

Race 3: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 10/3*

Race 4: 87.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 9/2 – 4/6*

Race 5: 62.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 9/4*

Race 6: 30.8% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 6 (Strongarm Chaser), 8 (Racehorse) & 5 (Full Suit)

Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Miss Mumtaz), 2 (Katie Lee) & 6 (Downtown Mombasa)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Barton Mills), 1 (Etefaaq) & 6 (Prince Ahwanee)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Raa Atoll) & 1 (Photographer)

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Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Burgonet) & 3 (Sailing Home)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Jumira Bridge), 1 (Aclimatise) & 7 (Najashee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2, which rules out the top four horses in the handicap, leaving the likes of STRONGARM CHASER, RACEHORSE and FULL SUIT to assess.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference before we get some clues from the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 7/2.  Eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

2.20: Ian Williams can do little wrong just now and the popular handler has declared MISS MUMTAZ with definite claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Talented rivals are only conspicuous by their absence in the main, possible excluding the likes of KATIE LEE and DOWNTOWN MOMBASA.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for fillies – always encouraged) on the Leicester card

 

2.55: Twelve winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminate Airshow at the bottom of the handicap.  BARTON MILLS and ETEFAAQ both sport headgear for the first time and I anticipate the aids to have the desired effect, particularly from a Placepot perspective in a half decent contest.  PRINCE AHWANEE completes my trio against the remaining six entries.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders snared Placepot positions.  Nine of the twelve winners during the study period scored at a top price of 9/1.

 

3.30: RAA ATOLL and PHOTOGRAPHER jumped off the page in a flash (apologies offered!) with John Gosden’s pair fully expected to claim Placepot positions.  Readers looking for an alternative option could do worse than consider the merits of Rashdan.

Favourite factor: This is another new (novice) contest on the Leicester programme.

 

4.05: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Ed Dunlop’s runners.  When I include his representatives in the mix they disappoint and vice versa.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the country as I am passing up the chance of Ed’s recent Chepstow winner Qaswarah.  I prefer BURGONET and SAILING HOME, from a value for money perspective if little else.

Favourite factor: This is becoming a little repetitive being the third new race at the meeting.

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won both renewals thus far and whilst that fact does not pass as a trend just yet, I’ll opt for the scenario to be extended by vintage representatives, JUMIRA BRIDGE, ACLIMATISE and NAJASHEE.

Favourite factor: Only one of the two favourites thus far secured a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Jay Kay (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

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7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th May

BATH – MAY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £191.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.3% units went through – 8/1 – 20/1 – 7/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 2: 44.3% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 4/1 – 5/1 (11/4)

Race 3: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* & 16/1

Race 4: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 5: 39.4% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 16.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 & 12/1 (11/8)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Karalini) & 10 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Prominna), 6 (Burauq) & 10 (Black Truffle)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Spirit Of Zebedee), 10 (Divine Call) & 6 (Dreams Of Glory)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Barbill) & 8 (Cloud Seeding)

Leg 5 (4.35): 4 (Tricksy Spirit), 2 (Rock Of Estonia) & 9 (Aquadabra)

Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Cent Flying) & 3 (Glamorous Rocket)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • I hope you had part of the Placepot dividend yesterday, given that we had 40p of the £512.10 dividend = a return of £216.84 – following a ‘successful pot’ at Newmarket the previous day.

 

2.15: Boasting a ratio of 7/9 here at Bath this season, Mick Channon will be coming to one of his ‘local’ tracks in confident mode and KARALINI is the only horse in the contest that punters want to know at the time of writing.  SIGNORA CABELLO is the mount of Silvestre De Sousa who has ridden three winners for John Quinn whereby the chance for this long distance traveller is respected.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Bath with which to open proceedings.

 

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2.50: Tony Carrol has had his runners in good form for some time now and though good to soft was registered when scoring here at Bath, George Downing could be in the thick of this at the business end of proceedings aboard this Proclamation gelding who is a four time gold medallist.  Others for the melting pot include BURAUQ and BLACK TRUFFLE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Langham Vale (good to soft)

1/4—Prominna (good to soft)

2/14—Burauq (good to soft & good to firm)

1/8—Spellmaker (firm)

 

3.25: Silvestre takes his second ride for John Quinn and in a weak contest, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE can surely reach the frame in this grade/company.  Connections probably have most to fear from the likes of DIVINE CALL and DREAMS OF GLORY.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

3/6—Compton Prince (2 x good to firm & firm)

5/27—Dreams Of Glory (2 x good to firm – 2 x firm – good)

2/11—Divine Call (good & good to soft)

 

4.00: Mick Channon saddles the second of his three runners on the card and BARBILL cannot be excluded from the mix given Mick’s record at the track this term.  At the prices on offer, Ginger Nut could be worth opposing whereby CLOUD SEEDING is added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished well down the field in which horses sent off at 20/1-12/1-14/1 filled the frame, a result which had a great influence of the great Placepot dividend of £2,037.80.  Last year’s race went to plan for supporters of the 3/10 market leader.

 

4.35: There will be worse outsiders on the card than AQUADBRA I’ll wager who has her first run for Christopher Mason, having been previously stabled at Mick Channon’s yard.  Talking of Mick, his third and final contender at the meeting is TRICKSY SPIRIT, whilst ROCK OF ESTONIA (winner on this card twelve months ago) completes my trio against the remaining six declarations.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite last year finished nearer last than first (sixth of eight).

Bath record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Rock On Estonia (firm)

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

5.10: CENT FLYING looks to be something of a banker in the lucky last (from a Placepot perspective), with GLAMOROUS ROCKET marginally preferred to Inuk as the main threat.

Bath record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cent Flying (good)

 

Bath record of course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.45:

1/3—King Crimson (good to soft)

1/20—Swendab (good to firm)

3/21—Jaganory (firm – good to soft – soft)

4/17—Milly Jones (4 x firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 30th April

THIRSK – APRIL 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £364.40 (7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

For readers who want to find the corresponding results for last year – look for Sunday 30th April details.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Thirsk: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Me Before You) & 5 (Mecca’s Spirit)

Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Dutch Coed) & 2 (Redrosezorro)

Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Motahassen) & 12 (Majestic Stone)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Bacacarat) & 7 (Tamkeen)

Leg 5 (4.05): 10 (Pennsylvania Dutch), 9 (Kupa River) & 11 (My Name Is Rio)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Battle Commence) & 10 (Rotherhithe)

Suggested stake: 96 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Point of order – Given the horrendous weather forecast for certain areas today, limited stakes should be applied from my viewpoint; hence the small permutation – by my standards!

 

1.50: MECCA’S SPIRIT could be a different proposition as a three-year-old having offered little encouragement via four juvenile assignments.  I just prefer the chance of ME BEFORE YOU however, especially as Daniel Tudhope has been offered the ride.  Daniel was set to rise to massive stardom a few years ago and though he is riding his fair share of winners, great things have yet to materialise, though it is (comparatively) early days in his career.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (via three renewals) has secured a Placepot position thus far, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

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2.20: Top weight has not stopped money trickling through on the exchanges overnight for DUTCH COED, albeit a claimer has reduced the burden.  That said, apprentices have also been booked for the horses just below the tentative (each way) selection whereby the reduction in pounds and ounces is not quite as useful as appears at first glance.  REDROSEZORRO is one of the horses in question and Eric Alston’s raider has the assistance of Rachel Richardson in the plate as the Foxwedge gelding goes in search of his four-timer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourite just missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Redrosezorro (good to soft)

1/7—Space War (good to firm)

 

2.55: MOTAHASSEN has his first run for Declan Carroll here and with Daniel Tudlope coming in for another potentially decent ride at the meeting, it is no surprise that there has been money in the dead of night for the four-year-old Lonhro gelding.  Declan has saddled two of his last six runners to winning effect (alongside a silver medallist during the period) and when the money is down, Declan’s raiders usually know what is asked of them.  MAJESTIC STONE is offered up as the potential danger.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.

 

3.30: Although the last nine runners saddled by Andrew Balding have all been beaten, three of his last five representatives have finished second in their respective events and Andrew’s three runners at the track on Monday should be respected accordingly.  The first of his southern based raiders is BACACARAT who seems to have been found an ideal opportunity to go close at the second time of asking this season.  Standing his way is TAMKEEN who would only need to make any normal amount of improvement from two to three (whatever that is) to make his presence felt in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Thirsk card.

 

4.05: MY NAME IS RIO could (I repeat could) have good to soft conditions to race on, the type of ground which brought about a course victory earlier in his career, whereby Conor Beasley’s mount might outrun his 25/1 quote at the time of writing.  PENNSYLVANIA DUTCH is another ‘outsider’ I could consider. Kevin Ryan has saddled two of his five runners here at Thirsk this season to winning effect and it is worth noting that this Dutch Art gelding has attracted a little support on the exchanges overnight. The other potential each way play in the race is KUPA RIVER according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Muscika (good)

1/7—My Name Is Rio (good to soft)

 

4.35: Money has arrived overnight for BATTLE COMMENCE and it’s worth noting that trainer David O’Meara has certainly started this season in far better form that he finished last term, albeit he is still to reach the high standards he set before the decline in set in.  ROTHERHITHE is the main threat if she can build on three solid silver medal efforts last season.

Favourite factor: Both of the (6/4 & 15/8) favourites have obliged to date.

 

Record of the course winners in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.35:

1/2—Melabi (good) – Won the race last year – too big at 25/1 for new (Micky Hammond) yard?

1/3—Dyna Might (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 23rd April

WINDSOR – APRIL 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 45.5% units went through – 10/1 – 5/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 2: 36.8% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 – 16/1 – 9/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 42.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 25/1 – 10/3 (11/4)

Race 4: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 14/1

Race 6: 49.5% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* - 20/1 – 10/1

 

*Speculative punters were entitled to believe that were in line for a fine dividend after four races on last year’s corresponding card, the first quartet of favourites having finished out of the frame.

The Placepot was worth £26.50 by then but with one third of the surviving units (after four races) making it through to the end, the dividend only reached £80.30, even though three of the five successful Placepot position in races five and six were retuned at 20/1, 14/1 & 10/1.

Unfortunately, the two winning favourites put paid to any thoughts of a three/four figure sum being recorded.

The fifth race favourite accounted for 65.6% of the total Placepot units in that event, whilst 40.9% of the remaining units in the Placepot finale were riding on the market leader.

As a wise man once told me, it rarely (if ever) pays to presume!

Hopefully you joined me in winning a few quid on our favourite bet yesterday.  Upwards and onward….

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (4.50): 14 (Fairway To Heaven), 3 (Nuini) & 12 (Ubla)

Leg 2 (5.20): 5 (Blasim), 2 (Nina Petrovna) & 1 (Karalini)

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Leg 3 (5.50): 7 (Kinglami), 6 (Acclaim The Nation) & 5 (Rebecca Rocks)

Leg 4 (6.20): 2 (Stream Song) & 1 (Zoraya)

Leg 5 (6.50): 1 (Fajjaj) & 2 (Loyal Promise)

Leg 6 (7.20): 11 (Iconic Belle), 7 (Prerogative) & 10 (Strictly Art)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

4.50:  All three winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1 and the trio which make most appeal include dual course and distance winner FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN, NUTINI (1/1 at Windsor on good to soft ground – albeit running from higher in the handicap) and UBLA in a race which should not prove difficult to win.

Favourite factor: The last two favourites have finished out of the frame since the inaugural 5/2 market leader obliged three years ago.

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Nutini (good to soft)

2/13—Perfect Pastime (good to firm & heavy)

2/4—Fairway To Heaven (good to firm & good to soft)

 

5.20: The brief trends point towards BLASIM running a big race with trainer David Evans having won both renewals to date with fillies that were making their second appearance.  BLASIM ran well enough to snare a bronze medal at the first time of asking at Chelmsford and would only have to offer a moderate amount of improvement here to go close.  KARALINI has to enter calculations with Mick Channon’s runners going so well at present, whilst Archie Watson saddles his third runner on turf (NINA PETROVNA), the first two having prevailed.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position by finished second in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.  Unfortunately, last year’s 5/2 market leader failed to follow suit.

 

5.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals whereby plenty of respect is paid to REBECCA ROCKS, though better conditions would have added confidence.  KINGLAMI has finished ‘ in the three’ in 6/11 assignments at this venues, statistics which include three victories. Connections would prefer even softer ground for John O’Shea’s raider who has won 6/12 on soft/heavy ground.  Northern raider ACCLAIM THE NATION represents Eric Alston who has saddled his last two runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Just two (15/8 & 5/2) market leaders have obliged to date, whilst only three of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Kinglami (good to firm – soft – heavy)

 

6.20: Plenty of top stables are represented here though the jungle drums appear to be beating for STREAM SONG who is the latest inmate off the conveyor belt that belongs to John Gosden.  John has a good few winners last week, albeit that he failed to live up to some recent years when taking the Newmarket and Newbury meetings by storm.  That said, STREAM SONG seems to be the only horse here that exchange players are interested in, whilst I will tentatively offer ZORAYA as the alternative each way play.

Favourite factor: This is the first of the new races on the Windsor card

 

6.50: Yielding ground offers no concern to connections of FAJJAJ on the face of what we have witnessed thus far and with plenty of fancy entries to his name, Hugo Palmer’s Dawn Approach colt should make short work of this field, albeit LOYAL PROMISING looks a half decent prospect for the Martyn Meade team.  Stable companion Fabianski could outrun his odds I guess, though Imaginitive might snare the bronze medal on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The second of the new contests on the Windsor programme.

 

7.20: Shorter priced horses only make limited appeal in our last race whereby I will include three runners which hail from in-form stables to hopefully land the dividend for us, namely ICONIC BELLE (Mick Channon), PREROGATIVE (Tony Carroll) and STRICTLY ART (Alan Bailey).

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Poimters – Monday 16th April

WINDSOR – APRIL 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £88.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 35.0% units went through – 5/1 – 5/1 – 9/1 (85/40)

Race 2: 35.8% of the remaining units when through – 12/1 – 5/2 – 11/2 (2/1)

Race 3: 44.5% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 8/1- 16/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

Race 4: 66.7% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 7/1

Race 5: 51.4% of the remaining units went through – 17/2 – 8/1 – 4/1 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.3% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2* - 10/1 – 16/1

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 4 (Give Em A Clump), 5 (Mother Of Dragons) & 1 (Maygold)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Artair), 3 (Blown By Wind) & 7 (Solesmes)

Leg 3 (3.20): 7 (Sevenna Star) & 1 (King’s Proctor)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Fast And Hot), 5 (Menchego) & 6 (Essenaitch)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Blaine), 2 (Mobsta) & 11 (Poet’s Princess)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Icart Point) & 9 (Polly’s Gold)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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2.20: GIVE EM A CLUMP (ran in the next race on the card last year) undertakes his first assignment since having endured a gelding operation and coupled with the fact that he boasts a 1/1 record on heavy ground thus far, I’m offering the David Evans raider the tentative vote in the first race on the card, hoping that the meeting passes its 7.00 am inspection.  MOTHER OF DRAGONS has run well on soft ground in much better company than she competes against here, whist MAYGOLD completes my trio against the field in this ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out of the frame in the last (non Placepot) race on the card.

 

2.50: Whatever jungle drums are beating this morning appear to be coming from the ARTAIR reservation and the Racing Post comment about Michael Bell’s Kodiac colt also holding an engagement at Newmarket this week was an accurate one until the final declarations for Tuesday were confirmed.  BLOWN BY WIND has also attracted some realistic money in the positive exchange queue overnight whilst SOLESMES hails from Mick Channon’s yard who leads the way relating to juvenile runners on turf this season (2/2) thanks to his talented ‘Brocklesby’ winner Izzer.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite found one rival a short head too good for him in a short field event.  Last year’s 85/40 market leader is still being sought by detective having failed to figure in the finish. New readers might like to learn that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify.

 

3.20: John Gosden was going well enough of late without posting a 25/1 winner at Lingfield on Saturday which I included in my trainers list to follow, though most eyes were fixed on Aintree of course.  John saddles SEVENNA STAR with an obvious chance, though stakes should be kept on the low side if the meeting takes place.  My (negative) worry about the meeting is that Windsor have endured all kinds of problems in recent years with horses losing their balance around the turns, whereby the Windsor officials might run scared of offering the meeting the green light – we shall see.  KING’S PROCTOR has to give the selection seven pounds which might prove to be a tough ask, especially as his Nottingham success (impressive though it was) was gained on good ground.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card

 

3.50: The bottom trio in the weights might struggle to win, given that the five gold medallists thus far have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, stats which rule out the current 7/4 favourite (Bombero) if you follow such trends.  Accordingly, I would rather side with value for money types like FAST AND HOT (Richard Hannon’s only runner on the card which is unusual at Windsor to say the least), fellow course winner ESSENAITCH and MANCHEGO, who has been the subject of a little support overnight.

Favourite factor: Although favourites have won two of the five renewals to date at 7/2 & 15/8, it’s worth noting that the other three market leaders all finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth race on the card:

2/6—Fast And Hot (good & good to soft)

2/11—Essenaitch (good and good to soft)

 

4.20: There is no doubting that MOBSTA was unlucky at Doncaster the last day but for bookmakers to chalk up Mick Channon’s raider at 5/4 is overstating the case from my viewpoint.  Yes, I have to include the jolly in the Placepot mix, though each way types such as BLAINE (surely a tad too big at 22/1 in a place) and POET’S PRINCESS offer better value for money, especially on this type of ground.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Windsor programme.

 

4.50: ICART POINT represents Clive Cox who was the leading trainer at this venue last year in the early part of the season, with the Poet’s voice gelding being the trainer’s only runner on the card today.  Clive saddled a winner at Kempton on Friday to offer more confidence in the selection. POLLY’S GOLD is rated as the main threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 3/1**) market leaders.

 

Record of the four course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card:

1/3—Ziatan (soft)

1/4—Helfire (good to firm)

1/10—Harlequon Striker (soft)

1/2—East Coast Lady (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 23rd October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £17.20 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Milan Reef), 14 (Bee Machine), 12 (Ventura Quest) & 10 (Barney George)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Sioux Rising), 1 (Dawn Breaking) & 2 (Fortunate Vision)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Shaheen), 9 (Purple Rock) & 13 (Misscarlet)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Old Persian), 4 (Learn By Heart) & 10 (Unwritten)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Know Your Limit) & 9 (Tranquil Star)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Minotaur) & 5 (Dominating)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less (14 have been burdened with a maximum of 9-0), and the pick of the runners emerging from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap include MILAN REEF (drawn 4/14), BEE MACHINE (9) and VENTURA QUEST (3). Horses drawn in trap 1 have finished in the frame four times during the last six years as you can see below, as well as claiming toteplacepot positions in seven of the last thirteen contests.  BARNEY GEORGE (1) is also nominated accordingly, despite the fact that Ian Jardine’s raider is quoted as a 20/1 chance in the trade press this morning.  Indeed, 33/1 is available this morning in a few places which defies belief, given that trainer Iain Jardine has saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect as well as ‘Barney’ occupying a favourable stall position.  ‘Barney’ is Iain’s only runner today.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – most recent result listed first):

6-1-11 (10 ran-soft)

9-11-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-4 (13 ran-soft)

7-5-4 (14 ran-heavy)

8-1-2 (8 ran-heavy)

6-1-2 (14 ran-good)

12-5-3-10 (17 ran-good)

12-9-17 (14 ran-good)

8-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-6-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

17-16-5-14 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-5-2-1 (16 ran-good)

5-11-1-12 (16 ran-good to soft)

4-13-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

16-18-2-19 (19 ran-good)

10-9-13-2 (19 ran-good to firm)

4-7-1-13 (20 ran-soft)

4-11-20-9 (18 ran-soft)

16-2-18-1 (20 ran-heavy)

9-20-4-11 (19 ran-good)

18-16-4-19 (20 ran-soft)

20-16-17-7 (19 ran-good to soft)

 

2.40: You will have to excuse my belligerent mood this morning (not feeling 100%) but I have to take issue with the powers that be for calling this a ‘new race’ (yet again) given that it is only the change of ‘novice prefix’ that is different, with the contest remaining as a Class 5 event over six furlongs.  I have left my figures in place whereby it is your decision whether you take notice of the stats or ‘adopt’ the other option.  Upwards and onward by informing that Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners of this juvenile event when represented and the trainer has offered the green light to SIOUX RISING on this occasion.  I take little (or no) comfort from the fact that the form was registered at Redcar which offers dubious consistency in general terms from my perspective.  Trainer David Brown has had a poor season by his standards, registering a strike rate of just 7% this term, though his recent Catterick winner FORTUNATE VISION will hopefully lift the spirit of the yard by figuring prominently in this grade/company.  I’m not sure where else you could read the fact that an underrated trainer here boasts stats of 6/11 at Pontefract this season, namely Richard Whitaker (DAWN BREAKING), a ratio which has produced level stake profits of 23 points.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 17 of the 23 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dawn Breaking (heavy)

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-2-8 (9 ran-soft)

9-6-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-6-11 (12 ran-soft)

4-5-3 (10 ran-heavy)

2-12-5 (12 ran-heavy)

9-7-11 (14 ran-good)

9-3-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-16-1 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-8-12 (13 ran-good)

5-7-4 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-6-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-10-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

2-3-4 (12 ran-good)

8-1-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-17 (17 ran-soft)

15-10-17 (18 ran-soft)

 

3.20: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared eight of the last nine renewals of this contest, with soft ground course winner ROYAL SHAHEEN potentially representing the four-year-old vintage to good effect.  7/1 is still available with Bet365 as I write which looks a ‘bet to nothing’ from an each way perspective from my viewpoint.  Others to consider include PURPLE ROCK and three-year-old MISSCARLET who has plenty of scope for improvement on just her third assignment.

Favourite factor: Four clear favourites have won during the last eight years (seven and half points of level stake profit) during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.  Indeed, seven of those gold medallists scored at 5/1 or less, though just one of the other five market leaders during the period additionally claimed a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/7—Save The Bees (good to firm)

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1/2—Royal Shaheen (soft)

1/1—Misscarlet (soft)

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby swerved the entire weekend which only goes to prove that not all heads are turned because of substantial prize money.  Cynical readers might suggest that Charlie’s team might have been out of form but that simply is not the case, as the popular trainer has saddled five of his last eleven runners to winning effect, stats which have produced sixteen points of level stake profit.  Charlie saddled the winner of this event last year for good measure, whereby OLD PERSIAN is very much the first name on the team sheet.  Don’t expect 7/4 to be on offer however, as indicated in the trade press betting forecast.  LEARN BY HEART looks set to offer another solid performance on ground which suits, whilst UNWRITTEN could become a market mover if plenty of rain evolves during the morning.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have won in the last 20 years, whilst 18 of the 23 favourites secured toteplacepot dividends during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Unwritten (heavy)

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have secured eleven of the twelve Placepot positions to date, albeit from around 75% of the runners which have contested just four renewals to date.  Vintage representatives are 1/3 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, with KNOW YOUR LIMIT and TRANQUIL STAR fully expected to secure the fourth three-year-old victory in the race between them.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two successful (15/8 & 7/4) market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.50: Pontefract's obsession with hold staying races at every meeting drags on though to be entirely fair, it's just about the only ‘complaint’ I have about the venue. These events are more like graded greyhound races as old rivals shake hooves before going in the traps to see whose day it is going to be from meeting to meeting.  That said, I know some punters will hold their own (more positive) views but I can never get away from the fact that horses which lack pace to contest shorter events defies the intention of the sport.  Yes, thousands of horses contest races over two miles and more in the NH sector, though the discipline of jumping timber makes that a spectacle worth viewing each and every time.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MINOTAUR and DOMINATING should land the dividend between them if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged before last year’s 5/6 favourites finished second when securing a Placepot position..

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/20—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)

2/7—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

7 runners—Tim Easterby (8/43 +6)

5—Richard Fahey (9/81 – loss of 29 points)

4—Bryan Smart (1/8 +3)

4—Ed Walker (0/1)

3—Karl Burke (2/24 – loss of 17 points)

3—Mark Johnston (7/48 – loss of 24 points)

2—Michael Appleby (0/15)

2—Marco Botti (0/1)

2—Declan Carroll (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

2—Mick Channon (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Michael Dods (1/30 – loss of 13 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/23 +2)

2—Les Eyre (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/14)

2—William Haggas (0/5)

2—Micky Hammond (4/28 +10)

2—Sally Haynes (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Paul Midgley (1/23 – loss of 15 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/27 +2)

2—Jimmy Quinn (level return this season)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/11 +23)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Windsor: £762.80 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Plumpton: £68.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.50 York : Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 : Prominent, led over 2f out, held on towards finish to win by a neck...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Killay @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

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A Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' handicap over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 4 yr old filly with just four runs under her belt to date, but placed in all of them (2213) and all under today's jockey Charlie Bishop, with whom she seems to have struck up some understanding.

Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's runners are going well of late, winning 5 of 25 (20% SR) over the last fortnight, but this late season form is unsurprising, when you find that...

..EJH / Flat handicaps / 6 to 10.5 furlongs / August-October / 3-5 yr olds / 2013-17 = 35/186 (18.8% SR) for 121.8pts (+65.5% ROI), with the following of particular relevance here...

  •  in 3yo+ handicaps : 27/145 (18.6%) for 109.3pts (+75.4%)
  • 11 to 45 days after their last run : 30/139 (21.6%) for 135.5pts (+97.5%)
  • 3 yr olds are 21/108 (19.4%) for 72.1pts (+66.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 31pts (+56.4%)
  • and here at Windsor : 4/17 (23.5%) for 18pts (+105.8%)

Plus, in that same 2013-17 time frame, Eve's 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ Flat handicaps are 20/103 (19.4% SR) for 90.6pts (+87.9% ROI), from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 13/59 (22%) for 88.6pts (+150.2%)
  • females are 9/46 (19.6%) for 59.3pts (+128.9%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 925%) for 17.34pts (+86.7%)
  • and here at Windsor, it's 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 19.7pts at an ROI of some 246.6%

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Killay @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday with plenty of more-than-acceptable 7/2 BOG elsewhere To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.50 York : Awesometank @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 : Prominent, led over 2f out, held on towards finish to win by a neck...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Killay @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' handicap over 1m on good ground...

...featuring this 4 yr old filly with just four runs under her belt to date, but placed in all of them (2213) and all under today's jockey Charlie Bishop, with whom she seems to have struck up some understanding.

Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's runners are going well of late, winning 5 of 25 (20% SR) over the last fortnight, but this late season form is unsurprising, when you find that...

..EJH / Flat handicaps / 6 to 10.5 furlongs / August-October / 3-5 yr olds / 2013-17 = 35/186 (18.8% SR) for 121.8pts (+65.5% ROI), with the following of particular relevance here...

  •  in 3yo+ handicaps : 27/145 (18.6%) for 109.3pts (+75.4%)
  • 11 to 45 days after their last run : 30/139 (21.6%) for 135.5pts (+97.5%)
  • 3 yr olds are 21/108 (19.4%) for 72.1pts (+66.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 31pts (+56.4%)
  • and here at Windsor : 4/17 (23.5%) for 18pts (+105.8%)

Plus, in that same 2013-17 time frame, Eve's 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ Flat handicaps are 20/103 (19.4% SR) for 90.6pts (+87.9% ROI), from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 13/59 (22%) for 88.6pts (+150.2%)
  • females are 9/46 (19.6%) for 59.3pts (+128.9%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 925%) for 17.34pts (+86.7%)
  • and here at Windsor, it's 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 19.7pts at an ROI of some 246.6%

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Killay @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday with plenty of more-than-acceptable 7/2 BOG elsewhere To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £76.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Eyecatcher) & 2 (Austrian School)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Rastacap) & 1 (Camacho Chief)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Mushaired), 3 (Me Too Nagasaki) & 1 (The Grape Escape)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Transpennine Star), 3 (Gran Maestro) & 2 (La Fritillaire)

Leg 5 (3.55): 12 (Mr Cool Cash), 2 (Working Class) & 8 (Beverley Bullet)

Leg 6 (4.25): 5 (Duke’s Girl), 2 (Miramar) & 3 (Snookered)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The only money in the dead of night has been for the Simon Crisford trained EYECATCHER and to a lesser degree AUSTRIAN SCHOOL representing Mark Johnston.  Richard Hannon only saddles two runners on the card and though probably no match for the first named pair, BOMBSHELL BAY might sneak a place at a double figure price on behalf of the yard.

Favourite factor: This opening event is a new race on the Pontefract card.

 

2.25: 12 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more which suggests that the bottom four horses (of six) in the handicap can be eliminated from our enquiries, given that FEEBS is ridden by seven pound claimer Harrison Shaw. This fits into my plan anyway, as RASTACAP and COMACHE CHIEF were always going to be short listed before I looked up the stats for the contest.

Favourite factor: The successful 2/1 market leader four years ago was the first to score in 15 years, whilst eight ’jollies’ had secured toteplacepot positions in the process before three of the last five favourites finished out with the washing.

 

2.55:  Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and at 5/1 at the time of writing, Richard Fahey’s soft ground course winner MUSHAIRED could be viewed as an each way ‘bet to nothing’, especially if all eight runners stand their ground.  Jeremy Noseda has sent ME TOO NAGASAKI on a long journey all alone in his horsebox, which suggests that this Iffraaj colt (winner on heavy ground) will go close to winning.  That said, Richard Hannon’s other runners on the card is THE GRAPE ESCAPE who cannot be left out of the Placepot equation.  All three horses mentioned in despatches hail from the superior weight sector according to the relevant trend.

Favourite factor: Just three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, whilst ‘only’ ten of the 21 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.  That said, the biggest priced winners during the last six year was returned at just 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Mushaired (soft)

 

3.25: LA FRITILLAIRE returns to defend his crown and with the ground in his favour, 14/1 will not be his price on Monday, on that we can be sure.  Whether James Given’s five-year-old will be able to follow up his latest course victory remains to be seen as he has only put back to back victories together once via his five wins to date.  TRANSPENNINE STAR was thwarted by the minimum margin by the first named raider the last day and thanks to a claimer on board, the Michael Dods top-weight meets the rival on almost the same terms.  Money for GRAN MAESTRO would give the race a different look completely though as regular readers know, it makes little difference to yours truly who retires to the bar in double quick time in these repetitive staying races at Pontefract.  Whose turn is it to win today?

Favourite factor: The two inaugural joint (7/2) favourites both finished out of the frame before last year’s 2/1 market leader was beaten by a head.  Both winners to date were returned at 14/1.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

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1/1—Lady Of Yue (good)

2/29—Riptide (good & good to firm)

2/19—Tuscan Gold (good & good to firm)

2/20—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)

 

3.55: MR COOL CASH won one of the two divisions of this event last year though that said, Richard Guest’s five year-old has won only one of his subsequent 19 starts, albeit of today’s mark of 66.  Somehow or another, all seventeen potential runners have stood their ground thus far, though as I am writing this before stable staff have woken up, there is plenty of time from that scenario to change.  Hopefully four places will be up for grabs (don’t bet on it) though either way, my Placepot trio is completed by WORKING CLASS and BEVERLEY BULLET.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (11/4**) winner.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

2/14—Kiwi Bay (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Beverley Bullet (soft)

1/3—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)

2/10—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

1/3—Ravenhoe (good to firm)

 

4.25: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones and the pick of the relevant seven entries will hopefully prove to be DUKE’S GIRL, MIRAMAR and SNOOKERED.  That said, Cornerstone Lad sits just 16 ounces below the superior weight sector and there will be worse 10/1 chances contesting races at Pontefract Park this afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites have secured an aggregate of three gold and two silver medals to date whilst gaining toteplacepot positions in the process. Three of the last five winners have scored at 25/1-14/1-10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Pontefract card on Monday followed by their rations at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (9/75 – loss of 23 points)

5—Mark Johnston (6/43 – loss of 24 points)

4—Michael Dods (1/26 – loss of 9 points)

4—David O’Meara (8/43 +1)

3—Tim Easterby (8/40 +4)

3—Micky Hammond (2/25 – loss of 7 points)

2—Karl Burke (2/22 – loss of 15 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/21 +4)

2—Brian Ellison (1/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—Les Eyre (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (2/14 +17)

2—Richard Hannon (1/1 +3)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/4)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/10 +24)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Salisbury: £20.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £8.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday September 4th

BRIGHTON – SEPTEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £627.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (Lady Godiva) & 1 (Daybreak)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Perfect Pastime), 6 (Lucky Di) & 7 (Angelical Eve)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Princess Lyla), 4 (One For June) & 3 (Queen of Kalahari)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Alwaysandforever), 3 (Sugardrop) & 2 (Shankara)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Chough) & 1 (The Special One)

Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Lawfilly), 1 (With Approval) & 2 (Alketios)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Richard Hannon has saddled the two of the last three winners of the race (Richard was not represented in the inaugural contest) whereby the chance of LADY GODIVA is fully respected, especially with the trainer having scored with two of his three runners here at Brighton yesterday when securing a 12/1 double.  Richard's Camelot filly will be running on half decent ground for the first time whereby her first two efforts might have offered a false impression relating to what she is capable of.  Holly Doyle’s three pound claim is also a positive factor in a race which might not take a great deal of winning.  DAYBREAK undoubtedly sets the standard though let’s be honest, the bar has not been set very high thus far regarding the seven experienced runners in the field.  On the positive side, two of Hughie Morrison’s last eight runners have won, both gold medallists having hailed from his juvenile contingent.  Newcomers Living In The Now and Musical Theatre would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner at 5/2), though it’s worth noting that a 4/9 market leader was beaten in a win only contest in the inaugural contest in 2013.

 

2.30:  The appropriate winner in 2014 was called Bookmaker, especially as the first three winners of this event scored at 25/1, 16/1 & 12/1.  It’s hardly surprising that four time course winner PERFECT PASTIME has attracted some money overnight in a very average contest, whereby the 11/1 quote of Bet365 stands out from the crowd at the time of writing.  Jim Boyle saddled a couple of winners in August which offers some confidence in a season which has not panned out particularly well for the trainer.  Peter Hedger’s last three runners have snared one gold medal and two of the silver variety whereby LUCKY DI is another each way type to consider, especially as Peter has only saddled more turf winners at Goodwood and Newbury than he has secured at Brighton since the old king died. George Baker secured a 32/1 double on the corresponding card last year which offers hope for ANGELICAL EVE from my viewpoint.  In a race which has bookmakers result written all over it, my three ‘outsiders’ are taken against the field in speculative fashion.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured toteplacepot, statistics which include last year’s successful 11/4 market leader.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

4/15—Perfect Pastime (4 x good)

1/3—Strictly Carter (good to firm)

 

3.00: The favourite factor stats below are worth more than a glance given the appalling record of market leaders in this event, albeit after just four renewals. Nursery events (two-year-old handicaps) have a habit of kicking investors in the teeth at this time of year as trainers are ever more trying to win races in any shape or form in order to get orders in the for the winter from their respective owners.  This is especially so in the juvenile division, as handlers try to eek out any improvement they can obtain via ‘headgear’ or any other way they can conjure up a winner.  The first three offerings from PRINCESS LYLA camouflaged what was to come when the Richard Hughes raider scored 12/1 in her first Nursery contest.  Sure enough, the Arakan filly followed up successfully in another two-year-old handicap at Wolverhampton and with five pound claimer Finley Marsh retained in the saddle, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the hat trick will be landed in this grade/company.  I have not entirely written off the chance for ONE FOR JUNE who has contested warm races on her last two outings, whilst QUEEN OF KALAHARI in also added into the mix.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has secured a Placepot position and even then the 1/2 chance was beaten from a win perspective!  Two of the last three winners triumphed at 25/1 & 20/1.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Haveoneyourself (good to firm)

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3.30: Trainers have to make you laugh at times because when handlers up and down the country are screaming out for races confines to fillies and/or mares, just three declarations for this relevant new race on the card have ensued.  It might not be as bad if we had a trio of three-year-olds of similar ability but with ALWAYSANDFOREVER seemingly a class apart here, most punters at the track will retire to the bar, especially with any warmth in non-existent sun in most parts of the country only being conspicuous by its absence.  That said, many ‘Potters’ will have learned the lesson from yesterday when ‘win only races’ (as documented on this service yesterday) can destroy many a Placepot dream, whereby SUGARDOP and SHANKARA (refused to race last time out) are added into the equation just in case lightning strikes twice in as many days on the Sussex downs.  That said, Luca Cumnani (ALWAYSANDFOREVER) has saddled five of his last 13 runners to winning effect, stats which have produced over 15 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card.

 

4.00: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 which eliminates all bar the top three horses in the list when taking jockey claims into account.  CHOUGH and Ali Stronge’s hat trick seeker THE SPECIAL ONE are ahead of HARLEQUIN ROCK in the queue on current form (though Mick Quinn – Harlequin Rock - can produce the odd rabbit out of the hat), which takes us straight in the last Placepot race on the card.  Next!

Favourite factor: The five favourites have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety thus far, securing Placepot position in every race thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—The Special One (good to firm)

1/5—Suni Dancer (good)

 

4.30: Although the relevant seven pound claimer drops LAWFILLY below the ‘superior’ weight barrier (see previous race details for this second heat), the Richard Hughes Lawman filly is impossible to ignore from a Placepot perspective.  Further up the handicap, I am not surprised by the overnight support for WITH APPROVAL, whilst ALKETIOS should make the frame representing the dual purpose yard of ‘local’ trainer Chris Gordon.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same (positive) favourite stats apply.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—With Approval (good)

3/23—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm- firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track yesterday:

3 runners—Tony Carroll (No runners at the track yesterday)

3—Richard Hughes (0/2)

3—Seamus Mullins (No runners)

2—George Baker (No runners)

2—Jim Boyle (No runners)

2—Mick Channon (0/2)

2—Julia Feilden (No runners)

2—Ed de Giles (0/1)

2—Richard Hannon (2/3)

2—Charlie Hills (No runners)

2—Gary Moore (1/2)

2—Hughie Morrison (No runners)

2—Neil Mulholland (No runners)

2—Tony Newcombe (No runners)

2—Mick Quinn (0/1)

2—David Simcock (0/1)

2—Joseph Tuite (0/1)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £70.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Windsor: £23,856.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced