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Racing Insights, 12th October 2020

For Monday's piece, I'm going to look at the Trainer Statistics report and have a look at trainer George Boughey's performance in handicaps over the last year. His numbers are excellent and I'm going to see if there are any suggestions/pointers within the racecards and report suite to suggest if he's likely to add to the tally soon.

So, I suppose the best place to start is the Trainer Stats, 1 year handicap report as follows..

A good strike rate for both win and place, profitable at both win and place plus good figures for A/W and IV all point to the possibility of a winner. George has three bites of the cherry across two cards, where Yarmouth will be soft ground and it'll be heavy at Windsor. It's a Class 4, 6f contest at Windsor, whilst the Yarmouth races are both Class 5, 7f affairs, whilst the Windsor runner is the sole male of the trio.

In respect of Monday's races, George's 15 from 62 record in handicaps over the last year includes 9 wins from 30 (30%) on the Flat from which he is 2 from 2 at Yarmouth and 1 from 1 at Windsor. He 3 from 15 (20%) at Class 4 and 6 from 31 (19.35%) at Class 5, whilst males at 11/43 (25.6%) have outperformed females at 4/19 (21.1%), but none of this is negative.

Age-wise, 2yos are 2/8 (25%), 4yos are 7/21 (33.3%) and 5yos are 2/5 (40%), whilst all 15 runners have come from the 48 runners (31.25% SR) sent off at 12/1 or shorter. With an eye on the trip, 6f runners are certainly less successful at 1/8 (12.5%) as opposed to 4/17 (23.5%) over 7f, whilst overall those racing at 6-45 dslr are 13 from 47 (27.7%) and those racing is fields of 9-12 runners are 8/31 (25.8%).

And the last piece of the data jigsaw before race analysis is the the fact that George is using three jockeys. Oison Murphy hasn't ridden for the yard in the last year, but Ben Curtis is 2 from 7 (28.6%), whilst William Buick is an excellent 3 from 6 (50%).

My overall view of the data breakdown is that I'm still positive about the chances of all three so far but with an obvious caveat about Rock Sound running over a trip that the yard hasn't fared too well at. Maybe the racecards will assuage that fear? We'll not know until we look, so let's do that (in race time order as above), starting with Miss Fernanda...

Your first 30 days for just £1

and the pace/draw heatmap, set to last three runs, because over half of the filed don't have four runs yet...

So, we see that she's drawn out in 10 of 10, but a high draw for a prominent racer has proved successful here in the past, so I'm not as concerned as I might be about the draw. We said Oisin Murphy hadn't ridden a Boughey handicapper in the last year, but he is 14 from 73 (19.2%) on this track over the last three seasons.

Miss Fernanda also tops the Geegeez Speed ratings, but I think she might well struggle here today. She did, admittedly improve from race 1 to race 2 and then again to race 3 where she won making all at Bath over 5.5f on good to firm ground. Both runs since then have been disappointing, especially her 18-length defeat over 6f at Leicester on handicap/nursery debut three weeks ago, also on good to firm. She was sent off at 18/1 that day and I'd say the market would be a good indicator of her chances on her soft ground bow.

Next up, we have Rock Sound...

No snippet from the Speed ratings, as he sits 5th of 12 on that stat and the pace/draw heatmap isn't too encouraging either at...

In his favour, however, is Ben Curtis who aside from riding a couple of winners for George Boughey over the last year is also 131053 here at Windsor so far this season and he'll now take his chance upon this 5 yr old gelding who is having his first outing since leaving Declan Carroll's yard.

He's a former winner at both 6f (fibresand) and 7f (soft/heavy) and does tend to run well towards the end of the year. He won on 5th November last year and was then a runner-up beaten by a neck a month later and that was the last we saw of him until he finished 12th of 15 at Ripon last month. That was, of course, his first run for 9 months, so he's more than entitled to come on for the pip-opener. Incidentally that win almost a year ago was also a yard debut.

He's definitely of interest and has proven form at class, trip and going.

And finally, we go back to Yarmouth and easily the most experienced (25 runs to date) of the trio, Redemptive...

She lies 4th on the Speed Ratings at 58, whilst the pace/draw heatmap isn't ideal...

...but she is what she is : a hold-up horse of late, but who has raced more prominently in the past and I wonder if the prediction of "probable lone speed" from a centrally drawn runner might just push her on a bit quicker. Jockey William Buick has a good record on the Boughey 'cappers and is 2 from 2 on this horse and also 7 from 26 (26.9%) at Yarmouth over the last two seasons including 3 from 6 over this 7f track and trip, so I'd expect him to judge the pace well enough.

It's also worth pointing out that Redemptive has won over course and distance herself. That was just over six weeks ago, also under William Buick at this grade from a hold up position. The report for the race read...held up towards rear, smooth headway 2f out, weaved between runners entering final furlong to lead...so the pace/draw heatmap might not be as bad as it first looks.

More generally...her 3 from 25 record isn't too inspiring, but she is 3 from 13 at this trip with a further 3 placed efforts. She has won on good to soft ground and did, of course score over course and distance five starts ago.

She has been in the handicapper's grip of late, but now runs off a mark just 1lb higher than her last win and her 5th place finish last time out was a better effort than it seems on paper, as she overcame an awkward start to get involved before her interest was ended by being hampered in the final furlong. One of her rivals that day has run since and landed another C5 7f hcp.

Summary

The trainer's record over the last year under Monday's conditions would suggest all three are worth a second glance, but I'd say his chances seem to improve as the day goes on. It'd be a watching brief for me in the opener, as I feel Miss Fernanda is really up against it and the market will probably show that to be true.

As for the other two, neither are obvious winners tomorrow, but both are quite capable of at least making the frame. Redemptive is marginally the most likely for me, but she's going to need a bit of luck in running waiting for the gaps to appear. If those gaps don't come, she's going to get trapped on the rail or will need switching out, which invariably loses ground.

 

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...

...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...

...that number 1...

To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.

So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...

  • all came in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
  • and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners

Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...

  • 4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
  • 3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
  • and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill

...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).

The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...

The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...

...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...

  • 17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
  • 15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
  • 9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle

...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...

...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...

...that number 1...

To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.

So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...

  • all came in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
  • and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners

Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...

  • 4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
  • 3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
  • and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill

...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).

The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...

The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...

...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...

  • 17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
  • 15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
  • 9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle

...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Punting Angles: Windsor Racecourse

I was toying with a couple of subjects on which to base the content of this article, writes Jon Shenton, when I read a highly enjoyable edition of David Probert’s thoughts on this very site, which you can find here.

My eye was drawn to the section on Windsor.  It’s a course that historically I’ve had a patchy record when betting, so, inspired by Mr Probert’s words, I elected to dive into the deep Windsor / Thames waters to try and find some data driven treasure.

The course is a staple of the flat season: with its regular Monday slot in the calendar it forms an important part of the campaign due to the high volume of meetings and central location for many trainers. For the army of 9-to-5'ers like myself it also offers a chance to kick back and watch some racing due to the usual evening nature of the meet.

The fate of the favourites

Whilst researching, the first factor that made me sit up and take notice was the performance of the jollies. Using geegeez Query Tool (odds SP rank = 1, races from 2012 season onwards) the below table shows the tracks with the best performance by favourites ranked by A/E.

The numbers are certainly of interest regarding the Berkshire course. Surprisingly, backing the horse (or horses if joint favourites) at the top of the market in every single race during the last seven years would have returned a 4% profit, with close to a 37% strike rate.

It’s one thing understanding that favourites generally do well but why is that the case? Sadly, I have no answer, only several hypotheses. The evening nature of the meeting gives punters longer to study? The clientele who frequent the meeting are casual punters who back proportionately more outsiders, therefore boosting the value at the shorter end of the market? The “vibes” behind the fancied runners are stronger at the track? Or maybe the nature of the track plays to form more than others. It’s difficult to pinpoint specifics; the volume of data does make it hard to ignore however.

Before delving into further detail (and as a bit of public service) here is the view of UK tracks which have the worst performing jollies over the same time period.

 

Earlier I raised a potential hypothesis in relation to the time of the meeting being a factor, more study time effectively meaning the market becomes more efficient. It doesn’t feel like it could be a credible factor? Well, data talk! If we take our info and analyse it by meeting time, there is perhaps a surprising outcome (using horseracebase for this aspect).

Favourites prevail 4.5% more often at evening meetings than at afternoon fixtures! An 8.3% ROI has been attained during the later meetings, opposed to small loss during the earlier timeslots.

In truth, I’m not sure what to do with this intel, and it could obviously be mere happenstance, but thought it to be a worthwhile detour and if you have any theories please do share them in the comments. I did check other courses with a significant number of night meetings and the difference was certainly less noticeable than for this track. Perhaps this is evidence of potentially reading too much into data with no sound reason behind it.

Parking the time of day theme, for now at least, and getting back to evaluating the market leaders in Windsor races, I next assessed the age of the protagonists. This starts to paint a picture of where additional focus may be a rewarding exercise.

 

Two-year-old favourites at Windsor

The younger end of the age spectrum appears to be the area to concentrate on; it’s certainly where there is a greater demonstrable value. Again, we’re into conjecture about why that may be the case but, equally, the data are clear and compelling.

Starting with the 2YO group first, a logical extension would be to analyse the data based on the experience of the horse through checking the number of previous runs.

 

According to the info a first time out horse which is sent off favourite is worth taking on, generally speaking. The numbers are undoubtedly inferior to the animals that have at least a modicum of racecourse experience. Removing the debut runners, we’re left with 120 wins from 223 runs, A/E of 1.22 and a return of 24.4% on funds invested.

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The table above shows the consistent out-turn of this angle. It’s not my usual hunting ground but I have to say I’m extremely interested in seeing how this one pans out over the glorious British Summer.

 

Suggestion: back all 2YO favourites at Windsor if they have had previous racecourse experience

 

Before moving on, there is one potential fly in the ointment. Knowing which horse will be at the head of the market at post time is not an exact science. Realistically, having to take the rough with the smooth (unless you have the luxury to back at the last possible moment) will be the nature of an angle such as this. In other words, there will inevitably be a few winners missed. However, particularly with BOG, there will be plenty of returns at prices better than SP, or at least you’d hope so. Swings and roundabouts.

 

Three-year-old favourites at Windsor

Moving on to the 3YO Classic generation, there is a clear distinction between handicap and non-handicap races.

That’s a stellar win rate for the non-handicaps at around 44%. However, market expectations are higher leading to an A/E performance of just 1.02 and there is only a single point of SP profit from the 206 runners. As a result, it’s a tough gig attempting to find value there, albeit winners will be plentiful. The market appears to be exceptionally efficient.

However, the handicaps offer a degree of hope, an A/E of 1.09 and 14% return are reasonable if sustainable.

It seems highly plausible that an unexposed 3YO favourite against potential older rivals in a 3YO+ race may perform better than a favourite running against the same unexposed rivals in a 3YO only race. Therefore, a check on the performance by age restriction of the race would make sense.

Sure enough, the numbers support this theory. Again, a potentially reasonable angle with a high strike rate and, in the context of betting on horses, relatively low risk. I’m less sure about the 3YO only races but it’s a matter of personal taste.

 

Suggestion: back 3YO favourites at Windsor in 3YO+ Handicap races

 

Windsor Trainers

Departing from the favourite theme there are several stables that seem to be synonymous with strong Windsor form.

The data above show the top eight yards using runners with a maximum SP of 20/1. The A/E is ahead of the market for all of them at greater than 1.  Having said that, and frankly speaking, the only two that really appeal in terms of further analysis are Ed Walker and Roger Varian. The IV’s (Impact Value, a measure of how much more often than the group - trainers at Windsor, in this case - perform as a whole, where a figure greater than 1 is better than standard) for both are very strong. The rest of the cast are probably worth another check at some stage but time (and word count) precludes such deliberations today.

Firstly, there is something rather remarkable regarding Ed Walker’s runners:

That’s a striking difference in performance based on SP. Not a single winner at 13/2 or greater from 43 darts thrown.

To check if this is happenstance or a general trait of the stable it’s best to compare the performance by SP for all runners (not just Windsor) for the yard. Evaluating all runs from Walker;

  • 3 victories have been notched from a total of 342 attempts at 18/1 or greater (A/E of 0.27)
  • 31/839 at 8/1 or larger (A/E 0.59).

These numbers indicate that the Ed Walker stable tends to know what chance its runners have, and should be noted for the “don’t back without support” list.

Thus, in general a supported runner representing Ed Walker at Windsor is a serious proposition (this article and data does not include the most recent winner from the yard on Monday 29th April, He’s Amazing at 5/1).

 

Suggestion: back Ed Walker horses running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less

 

Secondly, Roger Varian is clearly an elite trainer whose horses often appear to be in the winner's enclosure on a hazy summer evening. His performance is solid all-round, arguably aside from his 2YO’s who seem a little under-powered at 2/14.  Taking those out of the equation we again have a similar story to Walker in terms of supported animals delivering much better performance than the relatively neglected entrants.

Same rules apply...

 

Suggestion: back Roger Varian horses aged 3 or greater running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less

 

There is a cautionary note however in the case of Varian: 2018 returned one victor from nine attempts, a much lower number of winners and runners than previous years. It may be that Roger V has targeted other races/courses in recent times so monitoring of the situation will be required. 

 

Windsor Jockeys

Reading though Mr Probert’s blog it certainly helps pinpoint the value of having the right pilot on board. I have very few jockey angles, my primary belief being that factors such as horse and trainer ability (or patterns) have much more weight in assessing the likely outcome of a race. However, perhaps there is untapped potential to consider here.

The table below shows a Famous Five using the same criteria (races from 2012 at 20/1 SP or less), again sorted by A/E.

 

The top two, Harry Bentley and Andrea Atzeni, stand head and shoulders apart, the IV’s are impressive but so are all the other numbers. Atzeni is allied to the Varian operation which accounts for 16 of his 44 wins (51 runs, IV 3.22).

Finding variables to sharpen the focus is difficult though given that so many of the inputs to a horse's performance are non-jockey related. You could argue that a pilot’s performance could vary depending on ground, race distance, pace, and/or number of runners, but Atzeni is strong across all factors. There is no real angle beyond taking an Atzeni-ridden runner very seriously.

With regards to Harry Bentley, it’s more straightforward to find opportunities. The below graph offers interesting insight, namely that races over shorter distances are less productive, at least in terms of A/E and IV.

At races over the minimum trip through to 6 furlongs Bentley is only 4/49 with an A/E of less than 0.5. The results at distances at a mile or greater are a polar opposite: 22/59, A/E 1.93, IV 3.44 and ROI of 113%

That will do as a nice micro to test.

 

Suggestion: back horses where Harry Bentley is the jockey at Windsor at distances of 8 furlongs or greater (SP 20/1 or less)

 

That about wraps it up for this edition. I plan to dive into some other UK courses over the coming weeks and months which I hope will be of interest (and potentially utility). I did plan to evaluate pace/draw, course experience and other factors but lost the battle with time on this occasion.

- Jon Shenton