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Punting Angles: Windsor Racecourse

I was toying with a couple of subjects on which to base the content of this article, writes Jon Shenton, when I read a highly enjoyable edition of David Probert’s thoughts on this very site, which you can find here.

My eye was drawn to the section on Windsor.  It’s a course that historically I’ve had a patchy record when betting, so, inspired by Mr Probert’s words, I elected to dive into the deep Windsor / Thames waters to try and find some data driven treasure.

The course is a staple of the flat season: with its regular Monday slot in the calendar it forms an important part of the campaign due to the high volume of meetings and central location for many trainers. For the army of 9-to-5'ers like myself it also offers a chance to kick back and watch some racing due to the usual evening nature of the meet.

The fate of the favourites

Whilst researching, the first factor that made me sit up and take notice was the performance of the jollies. Using geegeez Query Tool (odds SP rank = 1, races from 2012 season onwards) the below table shows the tracks with the best performance by favourites ranked by A/E.

The numbers are certainly of interest regarding the Berkshire course. Surprisingly, backing the horse (or horses if joint favourites) at the top of the market in every single race during the last seven years would have returned a 4% profit, with close to a 37% strike rate.

It’s one thing understanding that favourites generally do well but why is that the case? Sadly, I have no answer, only several hypotheses. The evening nature of the meeting gives punters longer to study? The clientele who frequent the meeting are casual punters who back proportionately more outsiders, therefore boosting the value at the shorter end of the market? The “vibes” behind the fancied runners are stronger at the track? Or maybe the nature of the track plays to form more than others. It’s difficult to pinpoint specifics; the volume of data does make it hard to ignore however.

Before delving into further detail (and as a bit of public service) here is the view of UK tracks which have the worst performing jollies over the same time period.

 

Earlier I raised a potential hypothesis in relation to the time of the meeting being a factor, more study time effectively meaning the market becomes more efficient. It doesn’t feel like it could be a credible factor? Well, data talk! If we take our info and analyse it by meeting time, there is perhaps a surprising outcome (using horseracebase for this aspect).

Favourites prevail 4.5% more often at evening meetings than at afternoon fixtures! An 8.3% ROI has been attained during the later meetings, opposed to small loss during the earlier timeslots.

In truth, I’m not sure what to do with this intel, and it could obviously be mere happenstance, but thought it to be a worthwhile detour and if you have any theories please do share them in the comments. I did check other courses with a significant number of night meetings and the difference was certainly less noticeable than for this track. Perhaps this is evidence of potentially reading too much into data with no sound reason behind it.

Parking the time of day theme, for now at least, and getting back to evaluating the market leaders in Windsor races, I next assessed the age of the protagonists. This starts to paint a picture of where additional focus may be a rewarding exercise.

 

Two-year-old favourites at Windsor

The younger end of the age spectrum appears to be the area to concentrate on; it’s certainly where there is a greater demonstrable value. Again, we’re into conjecture about why that may be the case but, equally, the data are clear and compelling.

Starting with the 2YO group first, a logical extension would be to analyse the data based on the experience of the horse through checking the number of previous runs.

 

According to the info a first time out horse which is sent off favourite is worth taking on, generally speaking. The numbers are undoubtedly inferior to the animals that have at least a modicum of racecourse experience. Removing the debut runners, we’re left with 120 wins from 223 runs, A/E of 1.22 and a return of 24.4% on funds invested.

 

The table above shows the consistent out-turn of this angle. It’s not my usual hunting ground but I have to say I’m extremely interested in seeing how this one pans out over the glorious British Summer.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggestion: back all 2YO favourites at Windsor if they have had previous racecourse experience

 

Before moving on, there is one potential fly in the ointment. Knowing which horse will be at the head of the market at post time is not an exact science. Realistically, having to take the rough with the smooth (unless you have the luxury to back at the last possible moment) will be the nature of an angle such as this. In other words, there will inevitably be a few winners missed. However, particularly with BOG, there will be plenty of returns at prices better than SP, or at least you’d hope so. Swings and roundabouts.

 

Three-year-old favourites at Windsor

Moving on to the 3YO Classic generation, there is a clear distinction between handicap and non-handicap races.

That’s a stellar win rate for the non-handicaps at around 44%. However, market expectations are higher leading to an A/E performance of just 1.02 and there is only a single point of SP profit from the 206 runners. As a result, it’s a tough gig attempting to find value there, albeit winners will be plentiful. The market appears to be exceptionally efficient.

However, the handicaps offer a degree of hope, an A/E of 1.09 and 14% return are reasonable if sustainable.

It seems highly plausible that an unexposed 3YO favourite against potential older rivals in a 3YO+ race may perform better than a favourite running against the same unexposed rivals in a 3YO only race. Therefore, a check on the performance by age restriction of the race would make sense.

Sure enough, the numbers support this theory. Again, a potentially reasonable angle with a high strike rate and, in the context of betting on horses, relatively low risk. I’m less sure about the 3YO only races but it’s a matter of personal taste.

 

Suggestion: back 3YO favourites at Windsor in 3YO+ Handicap races

 

Windsor Trainers

Departing from the favourite theme there are several stables that seem to be synonymous with strong Windsor form.

The data above show the top eight yards using runners with a maximum SP of 20/1. The A/E is ahead of the market for all of them at greater than 1.  Having said that, and frankly speaking, the only two that really appeal in terms of further analysis are Ed Walker and Roger Varian. The IV’s (Impact Value, a measure of how much more often than the group - trainers at Windsor, in this case - perform as a whole, where a figure greater than 1 is better than standard) for both are very strong. The rest of the cast are probably worth another check at some stage but time (and word count) precludes such deliberations today.

Firstly, there is something rather remarkable regarding Ed Walker’s runners:

That’s a striking difference in performance based on SP. Not a single winner at 13/2 or greater from 43 darts thrown.

To check if this is happenstance or a general trait of the stable it’s best to compare the performance by SP for all runners (not just Windsor) for the yard. Evaluating all runs from Walker;

  • 3 victories have been notched from a total of 342 attempts at 18/1 or greater (A/E of 0.27)
  • 31/839 at 8/1 or larger (A/E 0.59).

These numbers indicate that the Ed Walker stable tends to know what chance its runners have, and should be noted for the “don’t back without support” list.

Thus, in general a supported runner representing Ed Walker at Windsor is a serious proposition (this article and data does not include the most recent winner from the yard on Monday 29th April, He’s Amazing at 5/1).

 

Suggestion: back Ed Walker horses running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less

 

Secondly, Roger Varian is clearly an elite trainer whose horses often appear to be in the winner's enclosure on a hazy summer evening. His performance is solid all-round, arguably aside from his 2YO’s who seem a little under-powered at 2/14.  Taking those out of the equation we again have a similar story to Walker in terms of supported animals delivering much better performance than the relatively neglected entrants.

Same rules apply...

 

Suggestion: back Roger Varian horses aged 3 or greater running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less

 

There is a cautionary note however in the case of Varian: 2018 returned one victor from nine attempts, a much lower number of winners and runners than previous years. It may be that Roger V has targeted other races/courses in recent times so monitoring of the situation will be required. 

 

Windsor Jockeys

Reading though Mr Probert’s blog it certainly helps pinpoint the value of having the right pilot on board. I have very few jockey angles, my primary belief being that factors such as horse and trainer ability (or patterns) have much more weight in assessing the likely outcome of a race. However, perhaps there is untapped potential to consider here.

The table below shows a Famous Five using the same criteria (races from 2012 at 20/1 SP or less), again sorted by A/E.

 

The top two, Harry Bentley and Andrea Atzeni, stand head and shoulders apart, the IV’s are impressive but so are all the other numbers. Atzeni is allied to the Varian operation which accounts for 16 of his 44 wins (51 runs, IV 3.22).

Finding variables to sharpen the focus is difficult though given that so many of the inputs to a horse's performance are non-jockey related. You could argue that a pilot’s performance could vary depending on ground, race distance, pace, and/or number of runners, but Atzeni is strong across all factors. There is no real angle beyond taking an Atzeni-ridden runner very seriously.

With regards to Harry Bentley, it’s more straightforward to find opportunities. The below graph offers interesting insight, namely that races over shorter distances are less productive, at least in terms of A/E and IV.

At races over the minimum trip through to 6 furlongs Bentley is only 4/49 with an A/E of less than 0.5. The results at distances at a mile or greater are a polar opposite: 22/59, A/E 1.93, IV 3.44 and ROI of 113%

That will do as a nice micro to test.

 

Suggestion: back horses where Harry Bentley is the jockey at Windsor at distances of 8 furlongs or greater (SP 20/1 or less)

 

That about wraps it up for this edition. I plan to dive into some other UK courses over the coming weeks and months which I hope will be of interest (and potentially utility). I did plan to evaluate pace/draw, course experience and other factors but lost the battle with time on this occasion.

- Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Ripon : Asad @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 10/11 (Led over 7f out, pushed along and edged left 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, kept on same pace and lost 2nd inside final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 8-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m 3 1/2f on good to firm ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

The handicap debutant which wasn't SotD won on Saturday (by five lengths, 7/2 into 5/4) while the selection could only manage third. Sigh. -1 on our records, of course.

I'm sticking with Simon Crisford, an excellent trainer, for Monday's pick. He runs Persian Sun for the first time in a handicap - and, yes, I'm unapologetic about going after that angle again; this is a time of year when lots of horses step forward having wintered well from two to three or, as in this case, from three to four.

Crisford has a 30% strike rate with horses making their handicap debut in the last two years, scoring with 17 of 56 of them (30.36%, +16.91, A/E 1.47).

As discussed the other day, he's also very well capable of getting a horse fit on its first start after a break. Horses running off a 60+ day layoff for Crisford are 25/93 in the last two years (26.88%, +38.00, A/E 1.38).

This fellow returns after 135 days away, and was last seen when winning a Newcastle novice stakes. Crisford with last day winners is 24/96 (25%, -4.89, A/E 1.02). The market is on to these: the SP market at any rate, and I expect this horse to shorten by the time the stalls open.

Because this is a Sheikh Obaid horse, Crisford teams up with the owner's retained jockey, Andrea Atzeni. When the pair have combined in the last two years, they've gone 7/25 (28%, +11.80, A/E 1.19).

All of which gives us...

... a 1pt win bet on Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG which was available with bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.00 Ascot : The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up towards rear of mid-division, some headway under pressure over 1f out, never on terms) - I also highlighted the stats regarding Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson in the 1.25 race, they finished 1st and 2nd at Evens and 14/1 respectively with the forecast paying 15/1.

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Soft (Gd to Soft in places and sunshine is forecast) ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 3yr old filly running consistently well this season with 2 wins and 3 places (32112) from five starts in Flat handicaps so far, including finishing 311 over this 10f trip and she has one win and one runner-up finish on good to soft ground.

Her trainer Ralph Beckett has his string in fine order right now, winning 12 of 55 (21.8% SR) for 5.88pts (+10.7% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today...

  • 7/28 (25%) for 8.3pts (+29.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 17.2pts (+71.8%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.03pts (+37%) at Class 4
  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.93pts (+112.8%) over trips of 10 to 12.5 furlongs

In addition to the above short-term success, Ralph has done very well here at Windsor for a long time with 28 handicap winners from 144 (19.4%) generating 40pts (+27.8% ROI) profit over the last 10 years and with today's race in mind, those 144 runners include...

  • 3 yr olds : 20/105 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
  • at trips of 8.5f and beyond : 21/102 (20.6%) for 28.48pts (+27.9%)
  • since 2012 : 21/96 (21.9%) for 17.7pts (+18.4%)
  • females are 16/71 (22.5%) for 40.5pts (+57%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/63 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
  • on Good to Soft/Soft ground : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+90.9%)
  • in October : 4/20 (20%) for 10.56pts (+52.8%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey, Oisin Murphy, are 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.53pts (+75.5%)

And with regards to our jockey today...Oisin is 39 from 212 (18.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+27.2% ROI) on the Beckett horses over the last 5 years, from which he is...

  • 15/87 (17.2%) for 27.4pts (+31.5%) on 3 yr olds
  • 21/84 (25%) for 76.7pts (+91.4%) in handicaps
  • and 11/45 (24.4%) for 76.6pts (+54.8%) on 3 yr old handicappers...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet & Unibet at 5.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.00 Ascot : The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up towards rear of mid-division, some headway under pressure over 1f out, never on terms) - I also highlighted the stats regarding Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson in the 1.25 race, they finished 1st and 2nd at Evens and 14/1 respectively with the forecast paying 15/1.

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Soft (Gd to Soft in places and sunshine is forecast) ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 3yr old filly running consistently well this season with 2 wins and 3 places (32112) from five starts in Flat handicaps so far, including finishing 311 over this 10f trip and she has one win and one runner-up finish on good to soft ground.

Her trainer Ralph Beckett has his string in fine order right now, winning 12 of 55 (21.8% SR) for 5.88pts (+10.7% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today...

  • 7/28 (25%) for 8.3pts (+29.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 17.2pts (+71.8%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.03pts (+37%) at Class 4
  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.93pts (+112.8%) over trips of 10 to 12.5 furlongs

In addition to the above short-term success, Ralph has done very well here at Windsor for a long time with 28 handicap winners from 144 (19.4%) generating 40pts (+27.8% ROI) profit over the last 10 years and with today's race in mind, those 144 runners include...

  • 3 yr olds : 20/105 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
  • at trips of 8.5f and beyond : 21/102 (20.6%) for 28.48pts (+27.9%)
  • since 2012 : 21/96 (21.9%) for 17.7pts (+18.4%)
  • females are 16/71 (22.5%) for 40.5pts (+57%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/63 (19.1%) for 18.9pts (+18%)
  • on Good to Soft/Soft ground : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+90.9%)
  • in October : 4/20 (20%) for 10.56pts (+52.8%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey, Oisin Murphy, are 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.53pts (+75.5%)

And with regards to our jockey today...Oisin is 39 from 212 (18.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+27.2% ROI) on the Beckett horses over the last 5 years, from which he is...

  • 15/87 (17.2%) for 27.4pts (+31.5%) on 3 yr olds
  • 21/84 (25%) for 76.7pts (+91.4%) in handicaps
  • and 11/45 (24.4%) for 76.6pts (+54.8%) on 3 yr old handicappers...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet & Unibet at 5.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

4.45 Sandown : Secret Return @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along 2f out, ridden and kept on one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 5, 1m2f Flat handicap for 3yo on Good to Firm ground, worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is going well right now, finishing 31332 in her five handicap starts and she's the only one here to have won at this 1m2f trip to date. She was only narrowly touched off LTO 26 days ago, so cheekpieces are applied today to eke a little more from her.

Her trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has had 13 winners from 74 (17.6% SR) here at Windsor over the last three seasons and a backing them blindly would have produced 60pts profit at an ROI of some 81.1%.

Of those 74, Class 5 runners are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.6pts (+176.1%) and those priced shorter than 5/1 are 9/28 (32.1%) for 6.16pts (+22%) with Class 5 runners priced below 5/1 winning 4 from 12 (33.3%) for 2.33pts (+19.4% ROI). And of that dozen, today's jockey Charlie Bishop is 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 5.33pts (+59.2%).

EJH has been a bit quiet of late, but she's one of a small group of trainers that I look out for in September each year. With Eve's runners, I'm mainly interested in her lower grade (C4-6) Flat handicappers, who are 25 from 144 (17.4% SR) for 69pts (+47.9% ROI) profit since 2009 and these include...

    • at trips of 1m2f and shorter  :25/121 920.7%) for 92pts (+76%)
    • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 22/91 (24.2%) for 46.4pts (+50.9%)
    • 3/4 yr olds are 15/91 (16.5%) for 42.7pts (+46.9%)
    • and on Good to Firm ground : 9/39 (23.1%) for 39.6pts (+101.6%)

And, based on the above : 3/4 yr olds racing over 7-10 furlongs at 8/1 and shorter = 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 30.3pts (+72.2% ROI) with Charlie Bishop riding 3 winners from just 6 efforts (50%) on his way to 12.54pts (+209% ROI) profit...

...which steers us towards... a 1pt win bet on Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by over a dozen firms as at 10.10pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

4.45 Sandown : Secret Return @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along 2f out, ridden and kept on one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 5, 1m2f Flat handicap for 3yo on Good to Firm ground, worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is going well right now, finishing 31332 in her five handicap starts and she's the only one here to have won at this 1m2f trip to date. She was only narrowly touched off LTO 26 days ago, so cheekpieces are applied today to eke a little more from her.

Her trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has had 13 winners from 74 (17.6% SR) here at Windsor over the last three seasons and a backing them blindly would have produced 60pts profit at an ROI of some 81.1%.

Of those 74, Class 5 runners are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.6pts (+176.1%) and those priced shorter than 5/1 are 9/28 (32.1%) for 6.16pts (+22%) with Class 5 runners priced below 5/1 winning 4 from 12 (33.3%) for 2.33pts (+19.4% ROI). And of that dozen, today's jockey Charlie Bishop is 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 5.33pts (+59.2%).

EJH has been a bit quiet of late, but she's one of a small group of trainers that I look out for in September each year. With Eve's runners, I'm mainly interested in her lower grade (C4-6) Flat handicappers, who are 25 from 144 (17.4% SR) for 69pts (+47.9% ROI) profit since 2009 and these include...

    • at trips of 1m2f and shorter  :25/121 920.7%) for 92pts (+76%)
    • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 22/91 (24.2%) for 46.4pts (+50.9%)
    • 3/4 yr olds are 15/91 (16.5%) for 42.7pts (+46.9%)
    • and on Good to Firm ground : 9/39 (23.1%) for 39.6pts (+101.6%)

And, based on the above : 3/4 yr olds racing over 7-10 furlongs at 8/1 and shorter = 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 30.3pts (+72.2% ROI) with Charlie Bishop riding 3 winners from just 6 efforts (50%) on his way to 12.54pts (+209% ROI) profit...

...which steers us towards... a 1pt win bet on Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by over a dozen firms as at 10.10pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th June

NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1

Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)

Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)

Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)

Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)

Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)

Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%.  Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners.  It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint.  The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.

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Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Hyperfocus

1/3--Outrage

 

12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around.  The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case.  DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet.  That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls.  Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms!  FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.

Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dannyday

 

2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around.  Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives.  That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter.  NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms.  The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

1/1—Higher Power

2/3—Natural Scenery

1/1—Island Brave

1/3—Sir Chauevelin

 

2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date.  This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/5—Lopes Dancer

1/8—Good Time Ahead

1/3—Belisa

2/6—Airton

1/5—Sugarloaf Mountain

1/6—Hediddodinthe

 

3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on.  For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days.  I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner!  Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends.  Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday.  This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis.  My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors!  Boyle blessings….

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/12—War Department

1/3—Suzi’s Connoisseur

2/8—Aprovado

1/1—Line House

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 25th

WINDSOR – JUNE 25 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £701.90 (6 favourites: No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 3.7 units went through – 22/1 – 16/1 – 20/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 89.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 66/1 – 10/11*

Race 3: 54.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 6/4*

Race 4: 29.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 13/8*

Race 5: 24.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 11/4 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 3/1 (9/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 6 (Cent Flying), 2 (Spot Lite) & 3 (Spanish Star)

Leg 2 (6.40): 11 (Swiper), 5 (Glory) & 9 (Storm Shelter)

Leg 3 (7.10): 2 (Bella Ferrari) & 6 (Edge Of The World)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Buffer Zone) & 5 (Perfect Hustler)

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Leg 5 (8.10): 1 (Desert Path), 5 (Morning Sky) & 2 (Candidate)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Worth Waiting) & 2 (Contrive)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

 6.10: CENT FLYING is ten pounds better in with SPOT LITE for a minimum margin defeat on Bath form earlier in the year.  It would not be wise to take that form line too seriously given the different format of the two tracks but even so, the weights and measures act offers the nod to the first named William Muir raider, on principle if nothing else.  Bookmakers have choked on cigars for as long as man can recall when such scenarios have been on place, only for the form lines to become as twisted as Alfred Hitchcock plots down the years.  Should both runners fall wide of the required mark (entirely possible at this level), connections of SPANISH STAR should prove to be the main beneficiaries.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite sent the majority of punters home happy, given that twelve months ago, this was the last race on the card.

 

6.40: Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue.  Tom saddles STORM SHELTER this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride.  That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between SWIPER and GLORY who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting).  Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than BLESSED TO IMPRESS I’ll wager, though BELLA FERRARI and EDGE OF THE WORLD should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  The pair is listed in order of preference, given that the 6/1 quote in a couple of places this morning offers half decent ‘bet to nothing’ prospects about the George Scott’s raider who is a pound better off with that rival on Leicester form last time out, when George’s Bated Breath filly was making her handicap debut.  That said, Ralph Beckett sent one horse up to Pontefract to winning effect yesterday and his hat trick seeker EDGE OF THE WORLD looks set to run her race again on these terms.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Windsor programme.

 

7.40: Ten of the twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which suggest that Kimifive (from 8-6) might struggle against his five rivals this event.  The pick of the relevant quintet will hopefully prove to be BUFFER ZONE, though those working from a working man’s wage might care to row in with Jeremy Noseda’s each way option, namely PERFECT HUSTLER who is closely matched with the hot favourite via two-year-old form.  Jeremy has suffered something of a well-documented traumatic year, though it’s worth noting that his 8/28 record since February is a (29%) ratio which most trainers would settle for.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/1—Buffer Zone (good)

 

8.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6, though even this self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ is taking on the figures this time around with DESERT PATH.  Amanda Perret’s top weight is still on offer at 9/2 at the time of writing, a price that I snapped up in the dead of night, presuming that the odds would not last too long.  MORNING SKYE and CANDIDATE have both been well placed by their respective connections, though DESRT PATH represents a far better chance than the 18% ‘probability quote’ by the layers this morning from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the last 21 years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Desert Path (good)

 

8.40: Starlight Mystery represents some value for money at around the 9/1 mark this morning in the Placepot finale, though the safest options to secure another dividend appear to be WORTH WAITING and CONTRIVE. David Lanigan’s raider WORTH WAITING is the option that I would take if money arrives for the Bated Breath filly, given that a great number of David’s winners are well backed.  Without holding that potential edge by writing this analysis fourteen hours ahead of the race, I will just have to be patient and see what support transpires.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last the previous year (2016 - £455.90)

Despite five winning favourites in the relevant Placepot events, one race did the damage.

Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance.

As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.

 

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

5.40 Perth : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, headway when not fluent 2 out, never on terms, one pace)

Next up is Monday's...

7.10 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

She comes here on a hat-trick after successive wins at Yarmouth and Leicester which have helped her take her career record to 2 from 3 at 6 furlongs and 2 from 2 on good/firm ground, so conditions should be fine for here. Oisin Murphy takes the ride today and he was on board last time out, so there's some familiarity there too.

She's trained by Ralph Beckett, whose runners are 24/117 (20.5% SR) for 11.63pts (+9.94% ROI) backed blindly here at Windsor over the last 4.5 seasons (including this one), from which those running in handicaps are 13/60 (21.7%) for 10.29pts (+17.2%) and it is these 60 handicappers that I'm going to focus on, because...

  • 3 yr olds are 12/44 (27.3%) for 19.4pts (+44.1%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 11/41 (26.8%) for 25.6pts (+62.5%)
  • in June/July : 7/29 (24.1%) for 9.22pts (+31.8%)
  • females are 7/26 (26.9%) for 12.93pts (+49.7%)
  • on Good to Firm : 6/24 (25%) for 12.24pts (+51%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 3.52pts (+18.5%)
  • in female only races : 4/10 (40%) for 17.4pts (+174%)
  • LTO winners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.92pts (+70.3%)
  • whilst those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 2/5 (40%) for 5.53pts (+110.6%)

Now, that Oisin Murphy 2 from 5 stat might not look over-important at the bottom of the list, but it's definitely worth knowing that he has ridden 38 winners from 194 (19.6% SR) rides on Mr Beckett's horses since the start of 2014 generating profits of 70.3pts at an ROI of some 36.2%. This suggests you can back the partnership blindly, but if that's too many bets for you, the following relevant Beckett/Murphy angles are at play today...

  • on the Flat : 27/135 (20%) for 42.7pts (+31.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 15/82 (18.3%) for 32.4pts (+39.5%)
  • handicappers are 20/76 (26.3%) for 79.4pts (+104.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 14/76 (18.4%) for 5.18pts (+6.82%)
  • in June/July : 12/48 (25%) for 54.4pts (+113.3%)
  • on Good to Firm : 9/42 (21.4%) for 43.2pts (+102.9%)
  • and here at Windsor : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.13pts (+45.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

5.40 Perth : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, headway when not fluent 2 out, never on terms, one pace)

Next up is Monday's...

7.10 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

She comes here on a hat-trick after successive wins at Yarmouth and Leicester which have helped her take her career record to 2 from 3 at 6 furlongs and 2 from 2 on good/firm ground, so conditions should be fine for here. Oisin Murphy takes the ride today and he was on board last time out, so there's some familiarity there too.

She's trained by Ralph Beckett, whose runners are 24/117 (20.5% SR) for 11.63pts (+9.94% ROI) backed blindly here at Windsor over the last 4.5 seasons (including this one), from which those running in handicaps are 13/60 (21.7%) for 10.29pts (+17.2%) and it is these 60 handicappers that I'm going to focus on, because...

  • 3 yr olds are 12/44 (27.3%) for 19.4pts (+44.1%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 11/41 (26.8%) for 25.6pts (+62.5%)
  • in June/July : 7/29 (24.1%) for 9.22pts (+31.8%)
  • females are 7/26 (26.9%) for 12.93pts (+49.7%)
  • on Good to Firm : 6/24 (25%) for 12.24pts (+51%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 3.52pts (+18.5%)
  • in female only races : 4/10 (40%) for 17.4pts (+174%)
  • LTO winners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.92pts (+70.3%)
  • whilst those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 2/5 (40%) for 5.53pts (+110.6%)

Now, that Oisin Murphy 2 from 5 stat might not look over-important at the bottom of the list, but it's definitely worth knowing that he has ridden 38 winners from 194 (19.6% SR) rides on Mr Beckett's horses since the start of 2014 generating profits of 70.3pts at an ROI of some 36.2%. This suggests you can back the partnership blindly, but if that's too many bets for you, the following relevant Beckett/Murphy angles are at play today...

  • on the Flat : 27/135 (20%) for 42.7pts (+31.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 15/82 (18.3%) for 32.4pts (+39.5%)
  • handicappers are 20/76 (26.3%) for 79.4pts (+104.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 14/76 (18.4%) for 5.18pts (+6.82%)
  • in June/July : 12/48 (25%) for 54.4pts (+113.3%)
  • on Good to Firm : 9/42 (21.4%) for 43.2pts (+102.9%)
  • and here at Windsor : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.13pts (+45.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £9.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 74.1% units went through – 5/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 68.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 3: 44.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* - 14/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 66.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 3/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 81.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 10/11* - 15/2

Race 6: 62.7% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/2 – 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Tiar Na Nog) & 2 (Kath’s Legacy)

Leg 2 (6.30): 8 (Implicit) & 4 (Nefarios)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Irene’s Prince), 7 (Balsim) & 5 (Wolf Hunter)

Leg 4 (7.30): 10 (Titus Secret), 6 (Oh So Sassy) & 7 (Field Of Vision)

Leg 5 (8.00): 6 (Sir Plato) & 3 (Shadow Warrior)

Leg 6 (8.30): 6 (Seaborough), 3 (Tour De Paris) & 2 (Bajan Gold)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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  • We landed yet another Placepot dividend (at Salisbury) yesterday which produced 19 points of profit.

 

6.00: Four of the six winners have carried 9-1 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses in the list (one via a claimer) if you take the stats seriously, as does this self-confessed ‘anorak’.  TIAR NA NOG only found a rival in red hot form too good for her last week and connections of Denis Coakley’s six-year-old mare should gain compensation in this grade/company.  KATH’S LEGACY looks likely to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Biotic.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (one gold and three silver medallists) have secured Placepot positions thus far.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/10—Biotic (good)

1/3—Munsarim (good to firm)

 

6.30: Support for IMPLICIT from James Tate’s shrewd yard would be a positive pointer towards the twice raced Kodiac filly, though realistic money in the positive exchange queue has already arrived for Henry Candy’s Zebedee colt NEFARIOS which is impossible to ignore.  Oona will not doubt run another sound race but it would be a tad disappointing if the first named pair failed to finish in front of Richard Hannon’s February foal.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished second thus far whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

7.00: David Evans has won six of the last seven renewals and with two of the eleven entries in David’s care, IRENE’S PRINCE and BLASIM are the first two names on the team should which you might have guessed.  That said, Richard Hughes has a decent bunch of juveniles at his disposal this year and WOLF HUNTER was running on well at Goodwood last week which suggests that this slightly tougher track (with an additional furlong to travel) will suit.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 14 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 13 years having been returned at just 7/1.  The last twelve gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1.  14/15 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

7.30: All twelve winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that catch the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of OH SO SASSY, TITUS SECRET and FIELD OF VISION.  The booking of Gerald Mosse for Clive Cox’s first named raider is particularly eye-catching given their 3/6 ratio when teaming up thus far.

Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed Placepot positions via eight contests at the time.  Two of the four subsequent market leaders (one winner) have added Placepot positions to the tally.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

3/8—Englishman (good – good to firm – soft)

1/1—Blitz (good)

1/2—Libertum (good to soft)

2/4—Anonymous John (good & heavy)

 

8.00: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the twelve renewals thus far, yet only four trainers (of eight in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with four time course winner SIR PLATO and SHADOW WARRIOR (1/1 at the track) taking centre stage from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites.  Eleven of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.

Record of the four course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Shadow Warrior (good to firm)

1/2—Kingston Kurrajung (soft)

4/6—Sir Plato (2 x good to soft – good – good to firm)

1/7—Harlequin Striker (soft)

 

8.30: Eight of the winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 whereby SEABOROUGH, TOUR DE PARIS and BAJAN GOLD will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  Hopefully England will be at least one or two goals to the good ion the football front by the time that flag fall arrives!  Then again….

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have won during which time, four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 11th June

BRIGHTON – JUNE 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £325.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.5% units went through – 11/4 – 2/1* - 25/1

Race 2: 44.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/2 & 9/4*

Race 3: 8.3% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 12/1 – 20/1 (6/1)

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 4/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 -7/4* - 16/1

Race 6: 68.7% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* & 11/2

 

  • Speculative investors might have thought that they had a four figure dividend in the making last year as the Placepot was worth £33.02 at the halfway stage and £109.04 after four legs. That said, £325.70 is not a bad wage on a daily basis for most folk.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Livvys Dream), 1 (Claudine) & 6 (Angel Of The North)

Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Aegean Mist) & 6 (More Than Likely)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Lady Of Petra), 4 (Sunday Best) & 2 (Medici Oro)

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Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Maori Bob) & 6 (Genetics)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Roundabout Magic), 1 (Big Lachie) & 5 (Ask the Guru)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Impart), 5 (Give Em A Clump) & 3 (New Rich)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There will be worse outsiders on the card than ANGEL OF THE NORTH today I’ll wager and the 11/1 quote in a couple of places this morning is already looking under threat.  That said, LIVVYS DREAM and CLAUDINE are more logical winners of the contest from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: Both market leaders have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions to date.

 

2.30: AEGEAN MIST looks the only possible danger to MORE THAN LIKELY, with Richard Hughes (2/4 for at the track) trying to ward off his former employers (‘Team Hannon) with his latter named Coach House filly who ran well to run third over this trip at the third time of asking at Windsor.  AEGEAN MIST is expected to run the hot favourite close though from my viewpoint, especially with the Hannon juveniles seemingly needing their first outings this term.  Accordingly, Sean Levey’s mount should be ready to challenge for major honours today.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders thus far picked up a Placepot position via a silver medal effort two years ago.

 

3.00: I’m quite happy to absorb the rule 4 deduction having been on LADY OF PETRA at 20/1 in the dead of night, a quote which might halve in price by the time that flag fall arrives.  I wouldn’t entirely rule out another ‘roughie’ in SUNDAY BEST personally, especially looking at the favourite stats below, albeit it is early doors as far as the contest goes just now.  I guess MEDICI ORO is the player to consider from further up the betting in a race which will take little winning.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for the 11/10 and 6/1 favourites in this race to date.

 

3.30: GENETICS and WHINGING WILLY (offered in that order of preference) have to be considered in such a weak race, though MAORI BOB should take the beating, especially with a five pound claimer reducing the burden today.  Cameron Noble is the relevant rider and with 29 gold medalists to his name alongside a 25% strike rate for Michael Bell via six winners, MAORI BOB is expected to return to winning ways.  ‘Bob’ is now seven pounds better off (taking the jockey claim into account) with Regicide for a two and a quarter length deficit the last day.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders has secured a Placepot position via two renewals.  That said, it’s only fair to point out that aside from a dead heat, both of the 6/4 joint favourite could not snare the ‘win only’ prize two years back.

Record of the trio of course winners in the third race:

3/13—Whinging Willie (2 x good to firm & good)

2/2—Fair Power (good to firm & good to soft)

2/3—Archimento (good to firm and good to soft)

 

4.00: 10/1 is a slight insult to dual (good to firm) course winner ASK THE GURU from my reading of the race, especially with Michael Attwater having saddled winners at the corresponding meeting in recent years.  I guess the form book reads fairly accurately however, whereby more logical winners include fellow course winner ROUNDABOUT MAGIC and BIG LACHIE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader snared a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Roundabout Magic (good to firm)

2/6—Ask The Guru (2 x good to firm)

 

4.30: DEEDS NOT WORDS won this event off 10-8 twelve months ago (his last victory) whereby his 9-10 burden today could feel like something of a feather-weight to Michael Wigham’s seven-year-old handicapper.  Regular readers will know that I have chased this Royal Applause gelding up hill and down dale in the past, none more so that when securing a double figure price ‘last time out’ which was backed down to less than half those odds before being withdrawn.  There is no doubting his chance but inconsistency has crept into his work now and I’m prepared to sit back and watch him win at ‘cramped’ odds compared to what might be on offer if raised in class for a subsequent race in better company next time out, should Tom Queally’s mount win today.  Preference from a Placepot angle is offered to IMPART, GIVE EM A CLUMP and NEW RICH.  Milly Naseb’s latter named mount might have been the call from a win perspective but for digesting his 0/24 win record on turf.

Favourite factor: Both (9/4 and Even money) favourites have obliged thus far.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Deeds Not Words (good to firm)

1/4—Strictly Carter (god to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 4th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £45.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

There is no breakdown for the race by race Placepot details for Monday – Tote glitch on the day last year by the look of things – back to normal (whatever that is!) for Fontwell tomorrow….

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 1 (Nine Below Zero), 7 (Rock Of Estonia) & 2 (Formidable Kit)

Leg 2 (6.15): 1 (Queen Of Bermuda) & 6 (Leading Spirit)

Leg 3 (6.45): 2 (Buridan) & 1 (Buffer Zone)

Leg 4 (7.15): 7 (Son Of Africa), 6 (Louis De Palma) & 3 (Holmeswood)

Leg 5 (7.45): 2 (What A Welcome) & 3 (Chance To Dream)

Leg 6 (8.15): 5 (Cassini) & 12 (Staplegrove)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.45: NINE BELOW ZERO won the juvenile event on the card last year and with Ralph Beckett’s Showcasing gelding meeting trouble in running at the first time of asking this season, I’m willing to give him another chance at around the 8/1 mark this evening.  ROCK OF EASTONIA is feared most, albeit FORMIDABLE KIT also looks sure to take a hand in the finish.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged when this race was run as the Placepot finale.

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Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Nine Below Zero (good to firm)

1/1—Rock Of Estonia (good)

1/3—Iconic Knight (soft)

 

6.15: QUEEN OF BERMUDA ultimately ran out an impressive winner at Thirsk on her second start having also been favourite to land a warm event at Ascot on debut.  Her Thirsk victory wasn’t always on the cards in the race as the Exceed And Excel filly had to be shake up a few times before reaching the business end of the contest by which time, she was impressing with each stride.  Well placed here by William Haggas, the March foal should take the beating.  The two Godolphin runners LEADING SPIRIT (second colours) and FLY THE NEST should offer most resistance close home, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: The two gold medallists to date have secured gold and silver medals at 6/4 and 7/4 respectively whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

6.45: There should not be a great deal of daylight by the time that the jamstick has been reached between BURIDAN and BUFFER ZONE, though I’m sticking with Richard Hannon’s first named raider given his course victory under fast conditions at the first time of asking last year.  Only SWIFT CHILL is offering any type of resistance on the exchanges as far as their rivals are concerned, whereby the first two horses mentioned in dispatches will do for me against the field.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Buridan (good to firm)

 

7.15: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, which unfortunately only eliminates the bottom three horses from my viewpoint.  The pick of the remaining eight contenders will hopefully prove to be SON OF AFRICA, LOUIS DE PALMA and HOLMESWOOD, the trio representing some value against Silent Echo at the top of the handicap.  I readily admit that Peter Hedger’s potential favourite (Silent Echo) deserves to be a popular order but from a Placepot perspective, my trio should offer us decent efforts for our collective monies.  SON OF AFRICA is listed first on account of his other victories at top tracks such as Sandown, Newmarket and Goodwood, aside from posting his success here at Windsor on fast ground back in 2014.

Favourite factor: Just one (3/1) favourite has prevailed during the last eleven years, whilst only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame.  I wonder if it was a bookmaker which dreamed up this series of events which seemingly haunts Windsor cards on a weekly basis?

Record of the four course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/2—Silent Echo (good)

1/1—Louis De Palma (good to firm)

1/1—Son Of Africa (good to firm)

1/2—Mullionheir (good)

 

7.45: Patrick Chamings (WHAT A WELCOME) and John Best (CHANCE TO DREAM) have a chance to lord it over some big named trainers here with their representatives both looking to have first rate chances of claiming Placepot positions at the very least.  I’m finding it difficult to split the pair to be honest whereby my Placepot cash is the only stake involved in this contest.  Zamperini is taken the follow the pair home to secure the bronze medal.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural market leader prevailed at odds of 5/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

2/3—Chance To Dream (good & good to soft)

1/9—Ravenous (good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden boasts a 2/3 record at the venue this season but unless a dead heat occurs here via his two representatives CASSINI and STAPLEGROVE, John’s ratio will be reduced even if one of his inmates wins! Out of interest, LOTHARIO is attracting support on the exchanges in the dead of night, though three-year-olds invariably win these mixed maiden/novice events, especially at this time of the year.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Windsor programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th May

LEICESTER – MAY 28

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £21.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 41.6% units went through – 15/8* - 20/1 – 14/1

Race 2: 78.3% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 5/2

Race 3: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 10/3*

Race 4: 87.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 9/2 – 4/6*

Race 5: 62.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 9/4*

Race 6: 30.8% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 6 (Strongarm Chaser), 8 (Racehorse) & 5 (Full Suit)

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Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Miss Mumtaz), 2 (Katie Lee) & 6 (Downtown Mombasa)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Barton Mills), 1 (Etefaaq) & 6 (Prince Ahwanee)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Raa Atoll) & 1 (Photographer)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Burgonet) & 3 (Sailing Home)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Jumira Bridge), 1 (Aclimatise) & 7 (Najashee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2, which rules out the top four horses in the handicap, leaving the likes of STRONGARM CHASER, RACEHORSE and FULL SUIT to assess.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference before we get some clues from the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 7/2.  Eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

2.20: Ian Williams can do little wrong just now and the popular handler has declared MISS MUMTAZ with definite claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Talented rivals are only conspicuous by their absence in the main, possible excluding the likes of KATIE LEE and DOWNTOWN MOMBASA.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for fillies – always encouraged) on the Leicester card

 

2.55: Twelve winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminate Airshow at the bottom of the handicap.  BARTON MILLS and ETEFAAQ both sport headgear for the first time and I anticipate the aids to have the desired effect, particularly from a Placepot perspective in a half decent contest.  PRINCE AHWANEE completes my trio against the remaining six entries.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders snared Placepot positions.  Nine of the twelve winners during the study period scored at a top price of 9/1.

 

3.30: RAA ATOLL and PHOTOGRAPHER jumped off the page in a flash (apologies offered!) with John Gosden’s pair fully expected to claim Placepot positions.  Readers looking for an alternative option could do worse than consider the merits of Rashdan.

Favourite factor: This is another new (novice) contest on the Leicester programme.

 

4.05: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Ed Dunlop’s runners.  When I include his representatives in the mix they disappoint and vice versa.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the country as I am passing up the chance of Ed’s recent Chepstow winner Qaswarah.  I prefer BURGONET and SAILING HOME, from a value for money perspective if little else.

Favourite factor: This is becoming a little repetitive being the third new race at the meeting.

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won both renewals thus far and whilst that fact does not pass as a trend just yet, I’ll opt for the scenario to be extended by vintage representatives, JUMIRA BRIDGE, ACLIMATISE and NAJASHEE.

Favourite factor: Only one of the two favourites thus far secured a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Jay Kay (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

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Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

 

7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.