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Racing Insights, 2nd August 2021

August is now upon us and we kick off the new month with a look at Monday's racing. Feature of the day is the full access for ALL readers to the PACE tab for all races and if you're unsure how good the pace tab can be, let me show you the pace graphic from the race I analysed for Saturday...

And the race result...

The two pace horses were the first two home, as I predicted they would be. Sod's Law dictated that I got them the wrong way around, but as I tend to do in these "clearcut" contests, I also did the 1-2 and 2-1 exactas, so I still made a profit from the race and hopefully a few of you did too.

So, that's a quick reminder of the power of such a simple tool and that's available for all races on Monday, including the following free races of the day...

  • 2.10 Cork
  • 2.53 Newcastle
  • 3.25 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Naas
  • 4.20 Kempton
  • 6.45 Windsor

The last on that list is the only UK turf contest of the six and also happens to be the best quality (on paper, at least!) of them. It's not ideal for me and my restricted comfort zone, as it has 16 runners, but I might be able to find us an E/W angle (as most bookies are paying five places) if nothing else!

So, without further ado I'll put my qualms to one side and take a look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 16-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ sprint handicap over 6f on good to soft ground. The ground is better in places and with no further rain expected, might dry out further by the time the race comes around. The top prize is a decent £36k and here are the runners and riders...

Here at Geegeez, we've designed the racecards and associated tools so that you don't have to spend an eternity looking at a race and I'm certainly a fan of that approach! So, what I try to do with these big fields is to apply a quick process of elimination to give me a shortlist of possibles, who I can then have a deeper look at to see if there's a bet there for me or not. In this case I'm removing four runners based purely on their recent results and they are Chairmanoftheboard, Huraiz, Open Wide and Tinto giving me a card like this...

I now want to assess their previous form under today's race conditions via Instant Expert, starting with place form over the last two years...

And the obvious one for me to eliminate at this point is Flying Pursuit from an E/W perspective. If I then click the Win button, the numbers change accordingly to...

...where I'd have to say that Zim Baby looks the worst suite, so I'll take her out here too. This means I've swiftly taken 6 of the 16 runners out of my thoughts before we move on to pace and draw. We'll start with the draw and the blue line on the following graph suggests there's not going to be a huge bias from a win perspective, but the higher draws do marginally better...

...whilst in terms of pace, the preferred running styles seem to be either to lead or to sit in mid-division...

...prominent racers do OK, I suppose, but the takeaway here is not to dwell. If we combine the pace and draw stats together, the heatmaps look like this...

And these are (I hope) fairly self-explanatory. The low drawn leaders and the mid-drawn mid-div runners are interesting here, as they have really good place numbers, but don't convert into places often enough. They might be the ones for an E/W punt today.

We can overlay our runners onto those charts, as we already know the draw and we also log the running styles from every past race and the corresponding graphics are as follows...

WIN :

PLACE :

Summary

In all honesty, this has turned out to be a difficult race to analyse, but as I do these pieces on the hoof in the same way I mentally assess all races, it's only at this point that I know whether I've got something or I haven't and I don't think I have much right now and here's why.

I think that Edraak & Total Commitment are the two to beat, but neither look great from a win perspective above. The latter is in the green zone for a place, but at 13/2 is too short for me to back E/W. Operatic looked best on pace/draw as a winner, but doesn't beat either of the other two in my opinion, so there's no outright win bet for me here. I'll probably have a small reverse forecast/exacta on Edraak/Total Commitment, because that's what I think might happen.

For an E/W bet, Operatic still looks to be in a reasonable position and she has a 4lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old. She's a former course and distance winner, who also won here over 5f last time out, but is now up in class and weight (+4lbs). She could still make the frame here, but I'd want double digit odds and she's currently just 8/1, so she's only a bet for me if she drifts.

The one I will back, though, is Punchbowl Flyer at 17/2 E/W. This 4yr old has finished 11819 over this trip/class so far this season and the two defeats were in the Wokingham and the Stewards Cup, where he was beaten by less than 4.5 lengths, but was the first horse home from the low drawn runners. He looks like he might get an early lead here and whilst I don't see him winning, he really should have enough about him to hold on for a place.

So, it's an E/W or place only bet on Punchbowl Flyer now with a possible similar bet on Operatic if she drifts.

Racing Insights, 5th July 2021

The Pace tab is open to all readers for all races every Monday, whilst our daily free races are scheduled to be...

  • 2.45 Ayr
  • 3.40 Nottingham
  • 6.45 Windsor
  • 7.15 Windsor

And the last of those four looks (on paper, at least) the best quality, so today's focus falls on the 7.15 Windsor, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over 5f on soft ground worth £6,210 to one of these...

A Sure Welcome is a useful 5f handicapper (3 from 8 on turf) and he last ran at this trip on 7th June, when landing a course and distance win by 2½ lengths off a mark of 84. He's now 5lbs higher than that (just as he was when 3rd here over 6f LTO), but should still be competitive for a yard in decent nick.

Rayong has failed to make the frame in seven outings since winning at this class/trip at Pontefract a year ago off a mark of 93. It has taken that run of form to get him back into the 80's and he's now 5lbs lighter than that win. He has struggled for form of late and now runs for the first time since a wind op.

Caroline Dale is an interesting and lightly raced filly, who has already won over course and distance. She was a runner-up on debut on Lingfield's A/W track 13 months ago and has raced just five times, all on turf, since. However, in those five races she has made the frame in three Class 1 contests, finishing third at Gr2, Gr3 and Listed company, but on her return from a 314-day absence at Chester nine days, was last home of 8 at this class/trip.

Charlie Fellowes hit the bar as a runner-up in three consecutive races last August, before going on to win his next three with those six runs taking his hcp mark from 68 to 92. Marks in the 90's have proved a tall order for him, but he was a runner-up beaten by just a neck off 90 at Chester in the race in which Caroline Dale was last home, nine days ago. He's back up 2lbs for that effort, which makes this tough, but he's running well.

Clarendon House made his debut on 1st June this year, winning a Class 5 maiden over 5f at Yarmouth by almost five lengths before winning again 11 days later in his next/last outing. That was another Class 5 race, a 5f Novice contest which he duly won by nine lengths. Both wins were on quick ground, so we don't know how he'll fare on soft, but he's certainly going the right direction and an opening mark of 87 might prove to be a little lenient, but he is up two classes.

Thegreatestshowman is just 2 from 22 on turf, including just 1 win from 17 in handicaps. Most of his running is done on good to firm ground and was fourth here behind A Sure Welcome over course and distance two starts ago. He hasn't won any of his last twelve runs on the Flat stretching back almost two years and I'm not sure that'll change here.

Second Collection is just three pounds higher than when winning over 5f at Bath just three starts ago, but has since finished 5th of 14, beaten by four lengths and most recently, last home of six beaten by 5½ lengths at Haydock just over a fortnight ago. She's down a pound from that run, but steps up in class and although she has 2 wins and 3 places from 7 starts here at Windsor, it's fair to say that she prefers quicker ground and that she's better over 6f.

*

The take-away from Instant Expert is that soft ground is something these horses aren't really used to and haven't got to grips with it yet, although both Caroline Dale & Charlie Fellowes have both made the frame on soft. Trip-wise, it's a different story as the entire field have had at least one win at 5f.  A quick word about A Sure Welcome, who looks from the above to have tried Class 3 and Windsor several times now without much joy, he's 1 from 6 at C3 and 1 from 8 on this track, but from a place perspective, he's 4 from 6 and 6 from 8 respectively, as you can see below...

Basically, the trip holds no fears for any of these runners, but some are better over 6f. As for the draw in this seven-runner contest, there's not masses of data (only 10.4% of Windsor 5f sprints have been run on soft ground!), but the general feeling off an admittedly small sample size is that Stalls 2 to 5 is the best 'corridor' for making the frame, with 3 to 5 being the areas for winners...

With regard to place, it's interesting to see that leaders win far more often than other running styles, but they tend to either win or fail to even make the frame, there doesn't seem any middle ground. And if leaders are the ones most likely to win, then it's the hold-up horses who chase them home to make the places.

As ever, we can combine the draw stats with those pace stats to make a 12-box pace/draw matrix showing which combinations of draw and running styles work best/worst at Windsor and that looks like this...

And this is today's draw and our horses' running styles averaged out over their last four runs...

So we know who's in stalls 3 to 5 ie Charlie Fellowes, Rayong and Clarendon House and we know two of those three like to get on with it, so when we overlay that last graphic onto the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...which probably comes as little surprise to anyone.

Summary

What I believe to be the three best horses here are coincidentally also the ones most likely to be setting the pace and I wouldn't be surprised if the first three home finished in order of their pace ranking ie

A Sure Welcome is useful and consistent at this level/trip, but might just be carrying too much, despite (or because of!) still running well. Clarendon House is unbeaten, but has just two quick ground Class 5 races under his belt. He could be something, but could equally be nothing and I'm not backing a horse at a possible Evens or slightly bigger/smaller on the basis that he might or might not be something.

There's every possibility that he's the best of the seven by some margin, but I like to deal in what we know and not what we assume, which leaves me with Charlie Fellowes. He doesn't mind the wet ground, stays 6f and has a great draw. He likes to lead and might prove uncatchable. Hills were the only bookie to have shown a hand at 4pm on Sunday, but their 4/1 about Charlie Fellowes seems fair to me, so I'm on!

Racing Insights, 14th June 2021

I hope you've all had a good weekend, I certainly enjoyed my day off, but now it's time to start looking to the week's racing again. We kick off on Monday, where 'feature of the day' is free access to the Pace tab for all readers for ALL races, including the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 3.05 Carlisle
  • 4.40 Kilbeggan
  • 6.00 Windsor
  • 6.30 Windsor
  • 6.40 Kilbeggan
  • 7.30 Windsor

The last of that list is the best of the UK races on offer, so today I'll focus on the 7.30 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Flat Handicap over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £6,019 to one of these...

Form : Only Tinto and Han Solo Berger have failed to win any of their last five outings, whilst both Indian Creak and A Sure Welcome won last time out.

Class Movers : After winning LTO, Indian Creak now steps up a level, but Edraak, Tinto and Han Solo Berger all drop down from Class 2.

Course / Distance Form : All eight have won over today's trip and all bar Tinto and Han Solo Berger are previous winners here at Windsor with Edraak, Open Wide, Ivatheengine and Indian Creak all winning over 6f here at Windsor.

Days Since Run : All have raced in the last 45 days with only Edraak (44d) and Open Wide (45d) rested for more than 16 days.

Age / Sex : All eight are geldings ranging from 4 to 7 yrs old (2 x 4, 3 x 5, 1 x 6 and 2 x 7)

Trainer Form : Positives for Ivatheengine, Indian Creak, A Sure Welcome and Han Solo Berger. Negatives for Tinto and Open Wide.

Jockey Form : Positives for Edraak, Tinto, Ivatheengine and A Sure Welcome. Negatives for Open Wide and Concierge.

Weight / OR / SR spread : Just 10lbs separates the field on official ratings whilst our own SR figures ranger from 67 to 85 with a suggestion of a tight contest between Han Solo Berger (85) and Concierge (83)

At this point I'm often ready to 'eliminate some suspects from my enquiries' but aside from some doubts about Open Wide re: form, age and trainer/jockey negative icons, I think I'll keep all eight in my thoughts at least until I've done a brief overview of each, starting with joint top weight...

Edraak who had two wins and a place from his first three runs of 2021, but was 5th of 6 beaten by almost 11 lengths at Doncaster last time out. In his defence, he had been raised a class and 9lbs for winning here at this class, track and trip by three lengths in mid-April. He's clearly got ability, but that 9lb extra looks to have him pegged for now.

Tinto is the other joint top weight bearing a mark of 94, but he does have the benefit of a 3lb claimer reducing his burden to 9st 9lbs here. That effective mark of 81 is some 19lbs lower than his last wining mark, but that came 53 weeks and 18 races ago and he hasn't even made the frame in the last 10 of those defeats, despite his mark sliding from a career high of 105 to 95 last time out, when 7th of 9, beaten by over 7 lengths at Epsom last week. In his defence, that run of defeats have all been at Class 2 or higher and now effectively 4lbs lighter and once class lower than LTO and on favoured Gd to Fm ground, he might never have a better opportunity of at least making the frame.

Open Wide won here over C&D almost two years ago off a pound higher than today's mark and his last win was three starts ago over this trip at a higher grade off 87 at Kempton back in October. He has been close but not close enough in two runs since and with both yard and jockey not particularly great at this track, I'd want to look elsewhere today.

Ivatheengine has only raced six times in all and was a winner here over course and distance on his second outing. That was over two years ago, though and after that win, he only ran three times in 690 days. He won on his final run of 2020 (51 weeks ago), but has been 7th of 8 and last of 5 this year so far. His three wins from six suggest he's got something, but the lack of action allied to this year's results put me off.

Indian Creak won here over course and distance last time out, beating the re-opposing A Sure Welcome by three parts of a length. He's up 4lbs for that win, but useful claimer George Bass more than compensates with his 5lbs allowance meaning he should be competitive once more. The step up in class is the main area of doubt, though, as he's 0 from 10 at Class 3 or higher. I'd also suggest the ground would be a little on the quick side for him too.

A Sure Welcome has won both races either side of that runner-up finish behind Indian Creak, but a 4lb rise for a win over 5f here last week means he's effectively 6lbs worse off for the rematch, but is in great form, of course. I'd say he was much better on the A/W, having won just 3 of 26 on turf.

Concierge has been really busy so far this year and made seven appearances in less than 17 weeks from early Feb to late May. He was excellent when landing a Class 2 handicap over today's trip off a mark of 84 at Newbury a month ago, but less impressive when 9th of 16, 6 lengths off the pace, back down at this Class 3 level next/last time out at Haydock 16 days ago. That said, it was good to soft at Haydock (so probably almost soft) and he prefers this good to firm ground. He has won off this mark before, so he could bounce back here, but he'll have to be on his A-game at a track where he has a win and a place from two visits.

Han Solo Berger had been running well in mainly better races than this before coming unstuck at Epsom last time out, when beaten by the best part of seven lengths finishing 15th of 16 runners. He now steps back up to 6f for the first time in 26 runs stretching back to early October 2018 and I'm not convinced the extra yardage is going to help, even if he is down in class and eased a pound to a mark of 84, his lowest for almost a year.

That's an overview of recent performances, but Instant Expert can quickly show us their career records in similar conditions to the ones on offer here...

Ivatheengine certainly catches the eye above, albeit off small sample sizes, whilst Edraak also looks interesting. At this early stage of analysis, I often look at the blocks of red and I have concerns about Open Wide (going/class/distance), A Sure Welcome (going/distance), Concierge (distance) and Han Solo Berger (distance) I'm generally looking at those with red blocks based on 10+ runs and that should include Concierge at Class 3, but he has 3 wins and 2 places from 9 lower value Class 2 contests, so he's certainly not outclassed here.

The above numbers/colours might tell a different story when we focus purely on Flat handicap contests, though...

...where Indian Creak's performances at both course and trip are excellent. Tinto's mainly amber profile makes him of some interest too, but the ones I have doubts about from the first graphic haven't yet allayed my fears.

Draw Stats :

I use 7 to 9 runners as my guide here, to ensure a decent sample size of 31 past races, but treat stalls 8 & 9 as one entity at 4 wins / 9 places from 30...

What I take from the above is that stalls 6 and 7 have performed poorest, but I don't think there's really a massive draw bias here under today's conditions. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather be in boxes 1-5 than 6 or 7, but I'm not sure the real difference is huge.

Pace Stats : 

This however is a different kettle of fish and whilst leaders almost win as often as you'd expect (IV = 0.91) and have a great E/W record, the place to sit here is at the back or mid-division if you want to win. The interesting thing for me is the failure of those who race prominently just off the pace. Over 40% of the runners race prominently in these events, under the misapprehension that you need to be handy on this track, but they've only recorded 21% of the winners...

So, what we're probably after is a horse drawn 1 to 5 who likes to be held up? You'd expect so, but let's look at how pace and draw have interacted in our sample of races...

As you'd expect, most of the green is at the left hand end of the graphic, but those drawn centrally have a good chance of winning from the front and someone has to lead! We can look back over our eight runners' four most recent efforts and see how they normally run. We know where they're drawn, so we can easily drop them onto that heatmap as follows...

Summary

Based on everything above you can make a decent argument for and against all of these and it could turn out to be a very interesting contest, but the three I'd want to take against the field would (alphabetically) be Edraak, Han Solo Berger & Indian Creak. I fancy it being a battle between the former and the latter with Indian Creak just edging out Edraak and Hans Solo Berger being my E/W pick, if prices permit.

I'm sure that A Sure Welcome will be popular, but he's worse off at the weights with my pick and there's also the danger of Tinto running a big race too, but for me it's Indian Creak / Edraak / Han Solo Berger.

I've now (6pm, Sunday) had my first look at the market and Indian Creak is a 4/1 shot and I'm happy with that. Edraak is the current 3/1 fav, whilst HSB is worth a small E/W punt at 11/1,as possibly could Tinto be at the same price.

Racing Insights, 10th May 2021

A new week is almost here and on Mondays, we make the PACE tab available to ALL readers for ALL races including our free full races of the day, which are set to be...

  • 2.15 Catterick
  • 4.20 Ffos Las
  • 4.35 Killarney
  • 5.30 Windsor
  • 6.30 Windsor
  • 7.20 Southwell

The second of the Windsor races is easily the best of that list, so today's focus falls upon the 6.30 Windsor, a 6-runner Listed contest for 3yo+ over a mile on soft ground that might be a little quicker in places. The prize of £22,684 will go to one of these...

Oh This Is Us is a narrow second on the Geegeez ratings and comes here on the back of winning the Listed Paradise Stakes over this trip at Ascot 12 days ago. Has won 3 Listed races so far, has a near 20% strike rate at this trip, gets on well with jockey Pat Dobbs and is 10 from 23 when sent off at odds ranging from 13/8 to 6/1. Hasn't yet won here at Windsor or on soft ground, but should be a major player here if reproducing his form from Ascot.

Brentford Hope was also a winner last time out winning by three quarters of a length over 8.5f at Haydock, but this is much tougher than that Class 3 encounter from which the subsequent form has been pretty poor and he has been off the track for some 206 days. The ground won't bother him, as he has won on both soft and heavy ground, but this is a massive step up in quality here and he's not well off at the weights at all, he'd be receiving 3 to 12 lbs from his rivals in a handicap.

Qaysar has similarities with both of the above runners, he won a Listed event at Haydock last time out, getting home by a length and three quarters over 7f on heavy ground, so whilst this is a longer trip, the ground shouldn't take as much out of him. His last five runs have all been in Listed company and he has acquitted himself well in most of them, despite only winning the last of them. He's 4 from 9 on Good to Soft or softer, but is probably better over 7f than a mile.

Solid Stone probably needed the run when fifth behind Oh This Is Us last time out. That said, he was only beaten by just over a length and a half and is 3lbs better off with the winner here and that would put him right in the mix here. It should be noted, however, that he's probably better on quicker or artificial going and would prefer a longer trip.

Stormy Antarctic is best off at the weights here, having the highest OR (110) in the race but racing off equal bottom weight, but it has to be said that his best form in the UK was a good 4 or 5 years ago and he was beaten by six lengths in a 1m2f Listed contest at Kempton last time out in a field that has managed just one placed finish (at Class 2) from seven subsequent runs. I think this might be too much for him.

Syrtis completes the line-up and will probably be an unknown quantity to many UK punters as he races in this country for the first time. He won 3 of 10 flat races in France with his best work coming on soft/heavy ground over a mile, like many of the French horses do. He did, however, win on Good ground over a mile on his penultimate French run at Chantilly last September before his final run saw him as a 4-length runner-up. He certainly has the potential to go well here, but he could very well need the run after seven months off track, during which time he was gelded.

From the above, you'd possibly come away thinking that Oh This Is Us and Solid Stone would be the main protagonists and would be closely matched now that the former carries an extra 3lbs, but what does relevant form tell us? Let's consult Instant Expert...

As you'd expect, Syrtis has no data to show with this being his UK debut and other than his five wins over a mile, Oh This Is Us doesn't look particularly well suited and it's a similar story for Solid Stone. Brentford Hope's data is based on too small a sample size to be reliable, but both Qaysar and Stormy Antarctic will at least relish the underfoot conditions and both have also won at this level/trip with Qaysar looking the better of the two.

The draw...

For some reason in these small fields at Windsor, stall 3 has struggled at this trip, but stalls around him (1,3 & $) have proved to be the best places to be drawn...

...but that's got to be some form of anomaly, surely? My own take on those draw stats is that I'd just prefer to be in 1-4, but you can certainly win from anywhere and that here at Windsor, pace and race positioning are key and the Geegeez course info for Windsor states..."Because of the tight turn from soon after the start until the half way point in mile races, being close to the speed is again a positive. A low draw accentuates that pace edge"... So, here is the relevant pace data...

However, in small fields, most draws are low numbers and on Good to Soft / Soft ground, there's actually very little difference in success between the best (Prominent) and worst (Held Up) running styles if truth be told.

The way I look at these Class 1 encounters is that all things being equal the best horses tend to win most of the time, so with little discernible draw or pace bias, it should come down who is the best horse and/or who will handle race conditions the best. We can show you the pace/draw heatmap as a pointer, though...

There's no out an out pacemaker there, but Solid Stone does like to race close to the action and Stormy Antarctic has made the pace in one of his last four runs, although he did finish last of seven that day. What I think will happen here is that Solid Stone will attempt to set the fractions and Oh This Is Us will be doing his best not to let the leader get too far clear.

Summary

For me, it's either Solid Stone or Oh This Is Us here. I don't have much between them on my numbers and the latter beat the former last time out, but only by just over a length and a half and he's 3lbs worse off which could/should level things up at the very least. They both hold Qaysar from that race and Qaysar holds Stormy Antarctic on past form, having beaten him twice last season. I think that Syrtis will need the run as will Brentford Hope, who also needs to step up considerably.

So, from that, I'd take Qaysar to be the main threat to my chosen pair. The pair are closely matched from last time out and Solid Stone is better off at the weights this time. Oh This Is Us has the better record over this trip, they're both drawn in that 1-4 area I mentioned, whilst Solid Stone shaded it on the pace/draw heatmap.

All of which points to a reversal of the placings from Ascot, but I'm not entirely convinced that Solid Stone is as good as his rival, so it's Oh This Is Us narrowly for me today and Bet365's odds of 4/1 are interesting, as is the 10/1 offered about Qaysar, especially as I think he's the most likely gatecrasher of the other four.

 

Racing Insights, 26th April 2021

I put up a 4/1 shot and a 14/1 e/w bet for Saturday and whilst the 4/1 runner could only manage 6th place, our 14/1 horse ended up a 12/1 winner which was a nice way to end an up and down week.

Focus now shifts to Monday's racing, where we open up the PACE tab to all readers for all races, including our 'races of the day' which will be...

  • 2.25 Naas
  • 3.30 Naas
  • 5.30 Thirsk
  • 6.50 Windsor
  • 7.50 Windsor

The last of that handful of free races is the one that interests me most. There might only be six runners, but at first glance it seems that competitive that any of them could win, so I'm hoping the Geegeez toolbox will either point us towards the winner or tell us to stay clear of the 7.50 Windsor, which is a 6-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground and the race is worth £4,347 to one of these...

Luigi Vampa won a Class 4 maiden over 1m in August 2019 byt hasn't really kicked on since, failing to win any of six subsequent runs, making the frame just once in a Novice contest. Returning from a 232-day absence, he's likely to need the run here, especially after performing poorly in his last two outings. He's eased 2lbs in the ratings and steps down in class, but he wouldn't be getting my money.

Sweet Celebration is better than her seven length defeat over 1m4f at Wolverhampton LTO would suggest. Closer inspection shows that it was a Class 2 contest off a pound higher than today at a track where she has struggled previously. Prior to that run, she was a runner-up in back to back contests at Classes 3 and 4 and if running to that level again, could well make the frame here.

No Nay Bella has raced nine times since the start of February last year, finishing in the first three home seven times, going on to win three of them. She was only beaten by half a length last time out in this grade over 1m3f, but she is 2lbs higher here at a career top mark of 82, making this tougher.

Goldie Hawk is a smart looking filly who comes here unbeaten in handicaps, having won her last three contests over 1m2f to 1m4f on good to soft ground, tapeta and polytrack, showing versatility. Her first two wins were at Class 6, but she did win in this grade last time out. Based on this, you'd have to think she stands a great chance, but that enthusiasm does need tempering by the fact she's up another 5lbs (now 20lbs higher than her first win) and she hasn't raced since early October.

City Tour has ability, but is probably better on the A/W than he is on turf and although he was a narrowly beaten runner-up in each of his last two outings on polytrack and is some 4lbs lower here, his turf record isn't great. His sole win from nine attempts came off a mark of 73 and he's struggled beyond that mark and now tackles good to firm ground for the first time in nearly two years since a 7.5 length defeat (4th of 10) at Class 5 off a pound lower than today.

Ranco won both of his last two starts in France (1m2f/1m2.5f) ahead of a switch to David Pipe's yard last August, where he initially struggled over hurdles, being well beaten in all three contests. He was then switched to A/W handicaps where he performed more creditably ahead of a UK turf debut here at Windsor last Monday which saw him win by two lengths over course and distance. 7lb claimer Callum Hutchinson retains the ride from last week and despite a 5lb rise in weight, he's still getting 7 to 16lbs from all his rivals here.

If we look at the field's past performances on the Flat/AW under similar conditions to today, we've a couple of previous good to firm winners and all bar Ranco have won at this grade, but he is the only course winner in the pack whilst all bar Luigi Vampa have won at or around this trip....

If we then filter down to just include runs on turf, Ranco's C&D win last time out stands out a mile, as sadly does City Tour's poor record in this grade...

If we look at the draw stats for 11 previous 6-runner contests over this course and distance here at Windsor, we find the winners are shared around all stalls bar the two extremes ie 1 and 6...

...which wouldn't be great news for the likes of Sweet Celebration or City Tour, but the latter is a confirmed hold-up horse and that might be a blessing here, as hold-up horses have fared best in those previous 11 contests...

Prominent racers and leaders win roughly as often as you'd expect, whilst it's mid-division racers who have suffered, but I should stress that only around a seventh of the runners fall into this category, so the figures might be entirely reliable, as just one winner would move the percentage from zero to ten. That said, we can only work with the available data!

And if we combine pace and draw together, there's a distinct black or white scenario (red & green in our case, of course!) of what's good and what isn't...

We already know that City Tour will sit in the 33.33% box bottom left as a hold-up runner from stall 6, but how would the others fit onto that grid?
Like this...

...which would initially suggest a lack of real pace leading to a falsely run contest. However closer analysis of the running styles of these horses' last four outings suggests that No Nay Bella might well take this on and set the pace...

Summary

Any one of the six could win this, but the two I like most are Ranco after last week's C&D win and Goldie Hawk based on her handicap record to date. I don't think there's much between them on a level playing field, but Ranco receives weight and is race sharp, whilst Goldie Hawk has been off the track for some time.

I fancy Goldie Hawk to have a good season and she'll certainly win races if not handicapped out of it, but I think she'll need the run here, so I'd suggest she'll have to be content with playing second fiddle to Ranco on this occasion with Sweet Celebration possibly best of the rest.

The market doesn't agree with my assessment of Sweet Celebration and she's the outsider of the field at 15/2, but they do have my 1-2 as 10/3 jt favs.

 

Racing Insights, 12th October 2020

For Monday's piece, I'm going to look at the Trainer Statistics report and have a look at trainer George Boughey's performance in handicaps over the last year. His numbers are excellent and I'm going to see if there are any suggestions/pointers within the racecards and report suite to suggest if he's likely to add to the tally soon.

So, I suppose the best place to start is the Trainer Stats, 1 year handicap report as follows..

A good strike rate for both win and place, profitable at both win and place plus good figures for A/W and IV all point to the possibility of a winner. George has three bites of the cherry across two cards, where Yarmouth will be soft ground and it'll be heavy at Windsor. It's a Class 4, 6f contest at Windsor, whilst the Yarmouth races are both Class 5, 7f affairs, whilst the Windsor runner is the sole male of the trio.

In respect of Monday's races, George's 15 from 62 record in handicaps over the last year includes 9 wins from 30 (30%) on the Flat from which he is 2 from 2 at Yarmouth and 1 from 1 at Windsor. He 3 from 15 (20%) at Class 4 and 6 from 31 (19.35%) at Class 5, whilst males at 11/43 (25.6%) have outperformed females at 4/19 (21.1%), but none of this is negative.

Age-wise, 2yos are 2/8 (25%), 4yos are 7/21 (33.3%) and 5yos are 2/5 (40%), whilst all 15 runners have come from the 48 runners (31.25% SR) sent off at 12/1 or shorter. With an eye on the trip, 6f runners are certainly less successful at 1/8 (12.5%) as opposed to 4/17 (23.5%) over 7f, whilst overall those racing at 6-45 dslr are 13 from 47 (27.7%) and those racing is fields of 9-12 runners are 8/31 (25.8%).

And the last piece of the data jigsaw before race analysis is the the fact that George is using three jockeys. Oison Murphy hasn't ridden for the yard in the last year, but Ben Curtis is 2 from 7 (28.6%), whilst William Buick is an excellent 3 from 6 (50%).

My overall view of the data breakdown is that I'm still positive about the chances of all three so far but with an obvious caveat about Rock Sound running over a trip that the yard hasn't fared too well at. Maybe the racecards will assuage that fear? We'll not know until we look, so let's do that (in race time order as above), starting with Miss Fernanda...

and the pace/draw heatmap, set to last three runs, because over half of the filed don't have four runs yet...

So, we see that she's drawn out in 10 of 10, but a high draw for a prominent racer has proved successful here in the past, so I'm not as concerned as I might be about the draw. We said Oisin Murphy hadn't ridden a Boughey handicapper in the last year, but he is 14 from 73 (19.2%) on this track over the last three seasons.

Miss Fernanda also tops the Geegeez Speed ratings, but I think she might well struggle here today. She did, admittedly improve from race 1 to race 2 and then again to race 3 where she won making all at Bath over 5.5f on good to firm ground. Both runs since then have been disappointing, especially her 18-length defeat over 6f at Leicester on handicap/nursery debut three weeks ago, also on good to firm. She was sent off at 18/1 that day and I'd say the market would be a good indicator of her chances on her soft ground bow.

Next up, we have Rock Sound...

No snippet from the Speed ratings, as he sits 5th of 12 on that stat and the pace/draw heatmap isn't too encouraging either at...

In his favour, however, is Ben Curtis who aside from riding a couple of winners for George Boughey over the last year is also 131053 here at Windsor so far this season and he'll now take his chance upon this 5 yr old gelding who is having his first outing since leaving Declan Carroll's yard.

He's a former winner at both 6f (fibresand) and 7f (soft/heavy) and does tend to run well towards the end of the year. He won on 5th November last year and was then a runner-up beaten by a neck a month later and that was the last we saw of him until he finished 12th of 15 at Ripon last month. That was, of course, his first run for 9 months, so he's more than entitled to come on for the pip-opener. Incidentally that win almost a year ago was also a yard debut.

He's definitely of interest and has proven form at class, trip and going.

And finally, we go back to Yarmouth and easily the most experienced (25 runs to date) of the trio, Redemptive...

She lies 4th on the Speed Ratings at 58, whilst the pace/draw heatmap isn't ideal...

...but she is what she is : a hold-up horse of late, but who has raced more prominently in the past and I wonder if the prediction of "probable lone speed" from a centrally drawn runner might just push her on a bit quicker. Jockey William Buick has a good record on the Boughey 'cappers and is 2 from 2 on this horse and also 7 from 26 (26.9%) at Yarmouth over the last two seasons including 3 from 6 over this 7f track and trip, so I'd expect him to judge the pace well enough.

It's also worth pointing out that Redemptive has won over course and distance herself. That was just over six weeks ago, also under William Buick at this grade from a hold up position. The report for the race read...held up towards rear, smooth headway 2f out, weaved between runners entering final furlong to lead...so the pace/draw heatmap might not be as bad as it first looks.

More generally...her 3 from 25 record isn't too inspiring, but she is 3 from 13 at this trip with a further 3 placed efforts. She has won on good to soft ground and did, of course score over course and distance five starts ago.

She has been in the handicapper's grip of late, but now runs off a mark just 1lb higher than her last win and her 5th place finish last time out was a better effort than it seems on paper, as she overcame an awkward start to get involved before her interest was ended by being hampered in the final furlong. One of her rivals that day has run since and landed another C5 7f hcp.

Summary

The trainer's record over the last year under Monday's conditions would suggest all three are worth a second glance, but I'd say his chances seem to improve as the day goes on. It'd be a watching brief for me in the opener, as I feel Miss Fernanda is really up against it and the market will probably show that to be true.

As for the other two, neither are obvious winners tomorrow, but both are quite capable of at least making the frame. Redemptive is marginally the most likely for me, but she's going to need a bit of luck in running waiting for the gaps to appear. If those gaps don't come, she's going to get trapped on the rail or will need switching out, which invariably loses ground.

 

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...

...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...

...that number 1...

To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.

So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...

  • all came in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
  • and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners

Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...

  • 4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
  • 3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
  • and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill

...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).

The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...

The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...

...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...

  • 17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
  • 15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
  • 9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle

...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.00 Newcastle : Nkosikazi @ 5/1 BOG (7/2 after a 30p Rule 4 deduction) WON at 9/4 (Made all, driven and joined over 1f out, stayed on well and pulling away inside final 120 yards to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, the logical place to start is the racecard...

...which tells me that this former C&D winner hasn't actually won recently, but did finish in the frame last time out just a week ago, so perhaps a return to form is imminent? That, of course, remains to be seen. However, this runner does pop up on one of my reports, denoted by the 1 under the name, so let's look at...

...that number 1...

To put the above into context, 5 places from 8 (62.5%) including 2 wins (25%) here at Windsor might not initially seem worth hanging a bet on and you'd be right. In isolation, it isn't, but this 6 yr old mare's career record over 52 races shows a place record of just 28.8% and a win ratio as low as 7.7% via 15 places from 52 including just 4 wins.

So, a third of her total place finishes and half of her wins have come on this track from just 15.4% of her races and of that 2 wins & 3 places from 8 here at Windsor...

  • all came in handicaps
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 5 at 6-15 days since her last run
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on good to firm
  • and the same 2 wins, 1 place from 3 in fields of 1-8 runners

Referring back to her overall meagre 4 wins and 11 places from 52 starts, as well as enjoying success here at Windsor, her career stats also offer the following snippets of encouragement...

  • 4 wins, 7 places from 38 at 6-30 days since last run
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 17 in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 38 for trainer John Bridger
  • 3 wins, 9 places from 30 over a 6f trip
  • 3 wins, 6 places from 26 on a straight track
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 10 on Good To Firm
  • and 2 wins, 5 places from 18 for today's jockey Kieran O'Neill

...whilst on a straight good to firm strip at 6-30 dslr in a field of 5-8 runners for John Bridger, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 13.89pts (+277.8% ROI).

The final part of the racecard that I want to briefly touch on, is the SR column, which over shorter trips is very relevant and the following should be self-explanatory...

The obvious elephant in the room is that this mare has no win in 24 races since a win here over 5f on 20/08/18 off a mark of 72 and is now rated some 27lbs lower, but that hasn't put me off either as...

...including the following dozen angles of relevance today...

  • 17/69 (24.6%) for 47.46pts (+68.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 17/63 (27%) for 51.91pts (+82.4%) at trips shorter than 9 furlongs
  • 15/39 (38.5%) for 59.61pts (+152.8%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 53.92pts (+119.8%) with horses who last won 12 or more races ago
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 49.03pts (+114%) off a mark (OR) of 45 to 55
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 41.16pts (+108.3%) on the Flat
  • 11/50 (22%) for 33.74pts (+67.5%) at Class 6
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.46pts (+82.8%) last won 1 to 2 yrs earlier
  • 9/29 (31%) for 25.98pts (+89.6%) during April to July
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.58pts (+103.9%) running off marks 12lb or more lower than their last win
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 21.95pts (+243.9%) here at Windsor
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.88pts (+99.2%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle

...and although I don't want to dilute the numbers too much, I found it interesting to note that those who hadn't won for 12 or more races, but were turned back out in a race shorter than 9f worth less than £4k after just 6-15 days rest were...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Punting Angles: Windsor Racecourse

I was toying with a couple of subjects on which to base the content of this article, writes Jon Shenton, when I read a highly enjoyable edition of David Probert’s thoughts on this very site, which you can find here.

My eye was drawn to the section on Windsor.  It’s a course that historically I’ve had a patchy record when betting, so, inspired by Mr Probert’s words, I elected to dive into the deep Windsor / Thames waters to try and find some data driven treasure.

The course is a staple of the flat season: with its regular Monday slot in the calendar it forms an important part of the campaign due to the high volume of meetings and central location for many trainers. For the army of 9-to-5'ers like myself it also offers a chance to kick back and watch some racing due to the usual evening nature of the meet.

The fate of the favourites

Whilst researching, the first factor that made me sit up and take notice was the performance of the jollies. Using geegeez Query Tool (odds SP rank = 1, races from 2012 season onwards) the below table shows the tracks with the best performance by favourites ranked by A/E.

The numbers are certainly of interest regarding the Berkshire course. Surprisingly, backing the horse (or horses if joint favourites) at the top of the market in every single race during the last seven years would have returned a 4% profit, with close to a 37% strike rate.

It’s one thing understanding that favourites generally do well but why is that the case? Sadly, I have no answer, only several hypotheses. The evening nature of the meeting gives punters longer to study? The clientele who frequent the meeting are casual punters who back proportionately more outsiders, therefore boosting the value at the shorter end of the market? The “vibes” behind the fancied runners are stronger at the track? Or maybe the nature of the track plays to form more than others. It’s difficult to pinpoint specifics; the volume of data does make it hard to ignore however.

Before delving into further detail (and as a bit of public service) here is the view of UK tracks which have the worst performing jollies over the same time period.

 

Earlier I raised a potential hypothesis in relation to the time of the meeting being a factor, more study time effectively meaning the market becomes more efficient. It doesn’t feel like it could be a credible factor? Well, data talk! If we take our info and analyse it by meeting time, there is perhaps a surprising outcome (using horseracebase for this aspect).

Favourites prevail 4.5% more often at evening meetings than at afternoon fixtures! An 8.3% ROI has been attained during the later meetings, opposed to small loss during the earlier timeslots.

In truth, I’m not sure what to do with this intel, and it could obviously be mere happenstance, but thought it to be a worthwhile detour and if you have any theories please do share them in the comments. I did check other courses with a significant number of night meetings and the difference was certainly less noticeable than for this track. Perhaps this is evidence of potentially reading too much into data with no sound reason behind it.

Parking the time of day theme, for now at least, and getting back to evaluating the market leaders in Windsor races, I next assessed the age of the protagonists. This starts to paint a picture of where additional focus may be a rewarding exercise.

 

Two-year-old favourites at Windsor

The younger end of the age spectrum appears to be the area to concentrate on; it’s certainly where there is a greater demonstrable value. Again, we’re into conjecture about why that may be the case but, equally, the data are clear and compelling.

Starting with the 2YO group first, a logical extension would be to analyse the data based on the experience of the horse through checking the number of previous runs.

 

According to the info a first time out horse which is sent off favourite is worth taking on, generally speaking. The numbers are undoubtedly inferior to the animals that have at least a modicum of racecourse experience. Removing the debut runners, we’re left with 120 wins from 223 runs, A/E of 1.22 and a return of 24.4% on funds invested.

 

The table above shows the consistent out-turn of this angle. It’s not my usual hunting ground but I have to say I’m extremely interested in seeing how this one pans out over the glorious British Summer.

 

Suggestion: back all 2YO favourites at Windsor if they have had previous racecourse experience

 

Before moving on, there is one potential fly in the ointment. Knowing which horse will be at the head of the market at post time is not an exact science. Realistically, having to take the rough with the smooth (unless you have the luxury to back at the last possible moment) will be the nature of an angle such as this. In other words, there will inevitably be a few winners missed. However, particularly with BOG, there will be plenty of returns at prices better than SP, or at least you’d hope so. Swings and roundabouts.

 

Three-year-old favourites at Windsor

Moving on to the 3YO Classic generation, there is a clear distinction between handicap and non-handicap races.

That’s a stellar win rate for the non-handicaps at around 44%. However, market expectations are higher leading to an A/E performance of just 1.02 and there is only a single point of SP profit from the 206 runners. As a result, it’s a tough gig attempting to find value there, albeit winners will be plentiful. The market appears to be exceptionally efficient.

However, the handicaps offer a degree of hope, an A/E of 1.09 and 14% return are reasonable if sustainable.

It seems highly plausible that an unexposed 3YO favourite against potential older rivals in a 3YO+ race may perform better than a favourite running against the same unexposed rivals in a 3YO only race. Therefore, a check on the performance by age restriction of the race would make sense.

Sure enough, the numbers support this theory. Again, a potentially reasonable angle with a high strike rate and, in the context of betting on horses, relatively low risk. I’m less sure about the 3YO only races but it’s a matter of personal taste.

 

Suggestion: back 3YO favourites at Windsor in 3YO+ Handicap races

 

Windsor Trainers

Departing from the favourite theme there are several stables that seem to be synonymous with strong Windsor form.

The data above show the top eight yards using runners with a maximum SP of 20/1. The A/E is ahead of the market for all of them at greater than 1.  Having said that, and frankly speaking, the only two that really appeal in terms of further analysis are Ed Walker and Roger Varian. The IV’s (Impact Value, a measure of how much more often than the group - trainers at Windsor, in this case - perform as a whole, where a figure greater than 1 is better than standard) for both are very strong. The rest of the cast are probably worth another check at some stage but time (and word count) precludes such deliberations today.

Firstly, there is something rather remarkable regarding Ed Walker’s runners:

That’s a striking difference in performance based on SP. Not a single winner at 13/2 or greater from 43 darts thrown.

To check if this is happenstance or a general trait of the stable it’s best to compare the performance by SP for all runners (not just Windsor) for the yard. Evaluating all runs from Walker;

  • 3 victories have been notched from a total of 342 attempts at 18/1 or greater (A/E of 0.27)
  • 31/839 at 8/1 or larger (A/E 0.59).

These numbers indicate that the Ed Walker stable tends to know what chance its runners have, and should be noted for the “don’t back without support” list.

Thus, in general a supported runner representing Ed Walker at Windsor is a serious proposition (this article and data does not include the most recent winner from the yard on Monday 29th April, He’s Amazing at 5/1).

 

Suggestion: back Ed Walker horses running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less

 

Secondly, Roger Varian is clearly an elite trainer whose horses often appear to be in the winner's enclosure on a hazy summer evening. His performance is solid all-round, arguably aside from his 2YO’s who seem a little under-powered at 2/14.  Taking those out of the equation we again have a similar story to Walker in terms of supported animals delivering much better performance than the relatively neglected entrants.

Same rules apply...

 

Suggestion: back Roger Varian horses aged 3 or greater running at Windsor with an SP of 6/1 or less

 

There is a cautionary note however in the case of Varian: 2018 returned one victor from nine attempts, a much lower number of winners and runners than previous years. It may be that Roger V has targeted other races/courses in recent times so monitoring of the situation will be required. 

 

Windsor Jockeys

Reading though Mr Probert’s blog it certainly helps pinpoint the value of having the right pilot on board. I have very few jockey angles, my primary belief being that factors such as horse and trainer ability (or patterns) have much more weight in assessing the likely outcome of a race. However, perhaps there is untapped potential to consider here.

The table below shows a Famous Five using the same criteria (races from 2012 at 20/1 SP or less), again sorted by A/E.

 

The top two, Harry Bentley and Andrea Atzeni, stand head and shoulders apart, the IV’s are impressive but so are all the other numbers. Atzeni is allied to the Varian operation which accounts for 16 of his 44 wins (51 runs, IV 3.22).

Finding variables to sharpen the focus is difficult though given that so many of the inputs to a horse's performance are non-jockey related. You could argue that a pilot’s performance could vary depending on ground, race distance, pace, and/or number of runners, but Atzeni is strong across all factors. There is no real angle beyond taking an Atzeni-ridden runner very seriously.

With regards to Harry Bentley, it’s more straightforward to find opportunities. The below graph offers interesting insight, namely that races over shorter distances are less productive, at least in terms of A/E and IV.

At races over the minimum trip through to 6 furlongs Bentley is only 4/49 with an A/E of less than 0.5. The results at distances at a mile or greater are a polar opposite: 22/59, A/E 1.93, IV 3.44 and ROI of 113%

That will do as a nice micro to test.

 

Suggestion: back horses where Harry Bentley is the jockey at Windsor at distances of 8 furlongs or greater (SP 20/1 or less)

 

That about wraps it up for this edition. I plan to dive into some other UK courses over the coming weeks and months which I hope will be of interest (and potentially utility). I did plan to evaluate pace/draw, course experience and other factors but lost the battle with time on this occasion.

- Jon Shenton