Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
- 4.10 Southwell
- 6.45 Windsor
- 7.00 Musselburgh
- 7.15 Windsor
...from which, I'm going to look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...
Sterling Knight was a winner last time out and is three from five, bottom weight Expert Agent is denoted as a fast finisher and has won three of his last four, whilst only Silver Samurai and Dig Two have failed to win any of their last five outings (9 & 8 respectively to be precise).
Five of these (Lethal Nymph, Silver Samurai, LTO winner Sterling Knight, Mister Bluebird & Dig Two) are stepping up a class here whilst Silver Sumarai and Dig Two both sport a tongue-tie for the first time. Bottom weight Expert Agent is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a handy 6lbs weight allowance for that.
The entire field have all won at this trip already and four (Tanmawwy, Sterling Knight, Aphelios & Dora Penny) have won over course and distance, whilst Mister Bluebird has scored here over 5f. Aphelios hasn't raced for 75 days, but that shouldn't be an issue and the others have all been out inside the last two weeks to two months.
Instant Expert adds to the above data with details on six previous good to firm winners and three Class 2 victors...
...but this data doesn't have a standout runner, sadly. it does highlight the fact that Silver Samurai has struggled at going/class and that Mister Bluebird might not be suited by the 6f trip. A further look at the place stats suggests that Aphelios is an early contender for a place here...
...whilst Sterling Knight certainly gets both track and trip and Mister Bluebird's record at 6f might not be as bad as I first feared.
As you'd expect on a fast, straight 6f, there's very little (if any) advantage from the draw here...
...which leads us to our free feature, the PACE and those races above have tended to be won by those racing furthest forward...
Prominent runners win approximately 50% more often than those further back, whilst leaders win 50% more often than the prominent runners and go on to make the frame in almost half of their races, which based on this field's recent efforts...
...would seem to be bad news for the likes of Silver Samurai, Dora Penny and Expert Agent. LTO winner Sterling Knight changed tactics to win here over course and distance a fortnight ago, so I'd expect him to be further up that chart for this race, which will probably be led out by Mister Bluebird in the early stages.
Summary
Mister Bluebird is the likely leader here, which gives him a very good chance of at least making the frame, based on the pace stats for this track and trip. He was sharp enough to win here over 5f and his place stats were decent enough on Instant Expert, so he's be a good shout for the frame here. He doesn't, however, win often enough and I feel that if Sterling Knight runs as he did here a fortnight ago, he's the one to beat. He'll be up with the pace and is in good form.
Sterling Knight is currently 4/1, which might be a touch short, whilst Mister Bluebird's 11/2 is definitely too short for me to want to back him E/W and I agree with the early market that the likes of the 4/1 Aphelios is sure to be involved. None of the longer-priced (8/1 and bigger) horses really appeal to me here, either.