The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 2.10 Plumpton
- 2.55 Musselburgh
- 5.00 Wolverhampton
...of which, the first is the highest-rated on a day of fairly mediocre standard racing across three fixtures. The race is the 2.10 Plumpton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground...
Bottom-weight Guguss Collonges brings the best recent results to the table as our only LTO winner and has won two of his last three, as also has Tip Top Mountain, but was 7th here over course and distance recently. Sublime Heights is 2 from 5 and Henschke won two races ago, but half of the field are winless in five (or more!) starts.
All of these have had a run in the last six weeks, so all should be race-ready. The top five in the weights are all dropping down from Class 3, whilst the two at the bottom of the card/weights are both up a class here. Movethechains is winless in six, so his yard have decided to apply blinkers for the first time and have installed a 10lb claimer to lighten the load.
Six of the field (I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Henschke, Special Acceptance & Uallrightharry) have already scored over course and distance, whilst Guguss Collonges has won a 2m4f chase here previously. Milan Bridge (from legendary sire Milan) won a 3m2f hurdle at Hereford back in March 2022, but Movethechains and Almazhar Garde have won at neither track nor trip, although they have both landed events at slightly shorter distances as shown on Instant Expert below...
...where Tip Top Mountain is the immediate eye-catcher and top-weight I See You Well only appears to be let down by his 1 from 10 record on good to soft, which is strange, as he's 5 from 18 on Good and 2 from 8 on Soft, so you'd have expected him to have fared better on good to soft? Sublime Heights has less experience under these conditions, but has fared well enough whilst Movethechains should relish the trip on good to soft ground.
Monday's free feature is access to the pace profile for all races, showing how horses have run in their last few outings and for this race, it looks like this...
...with the in-form Guguss Collonges and Instant Expert eyecatcher Tip Top Mountain showing as confirmed front-runners, whilst I'd expect Special Acceptance to be held up in a race that hasn't been particularly kind to front-runners in the past...
Summary
When assessing recent form allied to the collateral relevant results via Instant Expert and also the pace data above, we're getting a mixed message.
On form, I'd want to be with Guguss Collonges, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and maybe Henschke, whilst Instant Expert suggested Tip Top Mountain, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Movethechains, whilst only Special Acceptance and I See You Well look like being held up.
So, none of them tick all three boxes, but Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and I See You Well feature twice, but to be honest with you, you can make a case for most of the field here, so I won't be having a bet.
If I was, though, I'd probably take Tip Top Mountain to win (5/1 with Hills at 3.45pm) and maybe a small E/W play on Sublime Heights (currently 10's), but aside from Milan Bridge and Uallrightharry (a pair I'm not keen on), any of these could win/place in what looks a competitive affair.