Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
- 5.06 Windsor
- 5.40 Windsor
- 6.50 Roscommon
- 7.40 Windsor
...so we're off to Windsor. I've opted to look at the first of the list, that 5.06 race, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...
Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio all come here off the back of LTO wins inside the last five weeks and Freds Mate won three starts ago. I Love Paris, Rakki and Malinka are yet to get off the mark after 5, 4 and 3 starts respectively.
I Love Paris and Rakki both drop in class here and that might help them here and Freds Mate has been gelded since his last run. That run was 136 days ago, so he might well need the run, but at 184 days off, Alacrity's fitness will be tested hee ,as the others have all raced in the last 37 days.
We don't have much relevant form to go off, but Caprelo won over this trip at Kempton last time out and Lucentio's win here a fortnight ago was over course and distance. Sadly this field have very little experience at this level and this is reflected in a lack of data within Instant Expert..
...so I'll move straight on to the draw stats, which suggest that runners in stalls 1 and 2 could be disadvantaged...
...whilst those races above have been won as follows...
...and with so many different viable options available, it could be an open contest, where I suspect Alacrity will be the early pacesetter, if his recent runs are anything to go by...
On that 'evidence', Malinka would be the back marker but be aware of horses changing how they run in the early stages of their careers.
If we now put what we know about the field into that pace-draw heatmap...
Summary
Pretty short and hopefully sweet today and I can't help but think that the 3 LTO winners, Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio will provide our first three home here, although Rakki looks good on the pace/draw heatmap.
Alacrity might need a run, Caprelo's form has all been on the A/W while Lucentio's LTO win was on soft ground, so none of the three are perfect.
Should Alacrity be race-fit, then he'd be my tentative pick at 5/1*, offering more apparent value than the 5/2* and 11/4* being offered about Caprelo and Lucentio with the latter being my preference.
*prices taken from Bet365 at 5pm Sunday