Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 2.25 Salisbury
- 2.45 Chepstow
- 4.40 Salisbury
- 5.20 Tramore
- 5.30 Windsor
- 8.40 Chelmsford
...from which I'm going to look at Race 23 of the 2024 Racing League aka the 5.30 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...
...featuring a quartet of LTO winners.
Great Acclaim won at Chepstow a week ago and has three wins and a place from his last five starts, Placeholder won at Wolverhampton 23 days ago and has won two of her three races to date, whilst Sunny Corner comes here on a hat-trick having won three and been a runner-up once in his last four starts. Bottom weight Zenzic got off the mark at the fourth time of asking when scoring at Yarmouth a week ago.
Starliner won six races ago, Rascal Recknell won three races ago, Candomore won four back and Post Rider has finished 1132 in her last four, but Bayadere is winless in her four outings.
Placeholder and Sunny Corner are both denoted as fast finishers and both step up a class here, as do handicap debutant Bayadere and Post Rider, whilst Zenzic is up two classes as he runs in a handicap for just the second time.
All nine bar Rascal Recknell have had at least one run in the last four weeks, but he now returns from a near 8-week break during which he was gelded. Starliner will wear blinkers for the first time today, whilst it's a debut in cheekpieces for Post Rider.
Starliner, Rascal Recknell and the maiden Bayadere are all yet to win over today's trip and sole track winner, Great Acclaim won over course and distance back in May at the start of his current five-race purple patch and this is reflected below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...
We've a relatively inexperienced bunch under today's conditions, but I'm probably already against Bayadere on good to firm ground and Starliner over today's trip. The latter has also only won one of six at this grade and Rascal Recknell's record isn't much better, so whilst Instant Expert isn't necessarily pointing me towards a bet just yet, it was worth looking, because I've already been able to cross four of the nine runners off my list of contenders.
My next port of call is draw analysis, which tells us that those drawn in the three lowest stalls have fared best...
...supplying us with 46.25% and 38.43% of the placers from just 33.1% of the runners, which in isolation could be good news for Placeholder, Candonomore and Bayadere, whilst those drawn centrally (Starliner, Zenzic and Rascal Recknell) would appear to have the worst of the draw. That said, over a race as long as a mile with both left and right-handed turns, the draw really shouldn't be the deciding factor here and at Windsor race positioning/tactics aka pace is often key and if we look at how those races above were won...
..it has certainly been a case of the further forward you can race, the better! This would appear to suit Post Rider most, if this field's recent races are anything to go by...
Summary
For me, the form horse Great Acclaim should be the one to beat here, but his tendency to run in mid-division may well cause him to lose this one, if front-running Post Rider is afforded an easy/soft lead. That said, Post Rider herself is no slouch and comes here in good nick and was only beaten by half a length last time out and she'd be my pick here in what looks like being a really tight contest.
Great Acclaim should still make the frame but will need to work hard to make up ground and if pushed for another runner to make the frame, I'd probably go with either Placeholder or Sunny Corner and it was no real surprise to see that bookies had these four runners at the head of the market at 3.45pm on Wednesday...
Zenzic could easily make the frame too, based on his LTO win and is almost at a backable price for E/W purposes, but i'm not interested in the bottom two of the market and unless I've read the race incorrectly, Bayadere seems way too short on handicap debut.